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000
FXUS65 KRIW 270936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW HAS EXITED WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS WYOMING IN NOVEMBER SO SOMETHING ALWAYS HAS
TO BE GOING ON. FIRST IS THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS
WHERE THE MELTING SNOW TODAY AS SATURATED THE ATMOSPHERE. CONTINUITY
HAD PATCHY FOG SO WE LEFT IT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WIND. THE
SENSOR AT CHIEF JOSEPH IS ALREADY REPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
THE MODELS SHOW WINDS OVER 50 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WOULD BLOW HIGH WIND DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE WINDS MAY
HAVE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE THE UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING BUT MENTION THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
BE LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MIXING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. NOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY
ALTHOUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW YESTERDAY WILL
BE COOLER. WE DON`T KNOW THE GFS MOS HAS BEEN SMOKING IN THE
RIVERTON AND LANDER AREAS. THEY ARE GIVING RIVERTON AND LANDER A
HIGH OF 72 DEGREES TODAY. DON`T KNOW HOW THAT WOULD HAPPEN WITH SOME
LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND NOT A LOT OF MIXING. EVEN IF WE DID FULLY
MIX...700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY GIVE A HIGH OF 60. SO...THAT
GUIDANCE WAS THROWN IN THE TRASH. OOPS...THIS IS 2014...I MEAN IN
THE RECYCLE BIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS YELLOWSTONE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME
LEFT FRONT JET ENERGY. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AS FOR FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE..EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WE KEPT WINDS BELOW HIGH
WIND CRITERIA BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THIS MAY BE A WARMER DAY WITH
BETTER MIXING BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE NUMBERS IN THE 70S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN LOOK OVERDONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING.

NOW FOR THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER. ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WET AND BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS
WORK INTO THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
DROPPING INTO WYOMING FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING AND DROP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IT COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ON HOW MUCH ARE STILL MUDDY AT THIS POINT. STAY
TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE DIVIDE BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE SUNDAY...SEPARATING A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS EAST...WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...GENERALLY
SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
SNOWFALL CHANCES SHOULD BE BEST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE THE BULK OF
ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS/SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO
MODELS ARE SHOWING AT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
SUNDAY MORNING. DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A MOIST SHEAR AXIS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRANSITIONING INTO A MODEST MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE
SNOW OVER THE WEST MONDAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS HELPING TO
QUICKLY ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. SOME TRAPPED
BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN
MIGHT BE HARD PRESSED TO WARM UP...BUT TYPICAL MIXED AREAS SHOULD
WARM UP NICELY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT COULD BE
SETTING UP OVER THE ABSAROKA MTS/CODY FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN DYNAMICS
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT THE NORTHWEST/WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE FOCUS TURNS TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THIS UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE IMPACTING THE ROCKIES IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME MODELS THAT SHOW A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MAINLY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID WEEK. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT VALLEY/CHANCE MTN POPS
OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHILE KEEPING AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE DRY
FOR NOW. THE PACIFIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM OR THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.  THERE
SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE FOG BANK ON THE WEST END...VCNTY AND
WEST KCOD...AS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS PROVIDE BETTER MIXING.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH MUCH MORE PATCHY FOG PARTIALLY OBSCURING LOWER RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGH 18Z.  AREAS OF LLWS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KLND-KCOD...WHERE WINDS IN THE FL080-100 LAYER WILL BE
270/50-60KTS.  SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS INTO VCNTY KCOD-KDUB BY 00Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50-60 KTS BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN INCREASING TURBULENCE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP SOME HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED IN -SN WITH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS VCNTY
KJAC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...AREAS
OF FOG WILL REMAIN INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER
WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST FOR
SATURDAY. EXPECT MILD...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 270936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MST THU NOV 27 2014

.SHORT TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

A MUCH QUIETER NIGHT ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT THAN LAST NIGHT AS THE
SYSTEM THAT BROUGHT THE SNOW HAS EXITED WITH RIDGING OVER THE AREA
TODAY. HOWEVER...THIS IS WYOMING IN NOVEMBER SO SOMETHING ALWAYS HAS
TO BE GOING ON. FIRST IS THE FOG THAT HAS DEVELOPED IN SOME AREAS
WHERE THE MELTING SNOW TODAY AS SATURATED THE ATMOSPHERE. CONTINUITY
HAD PATCHY FOG SO WE LEFT IT. THE MAIN CONCERN TODAY IS WIND. THE
SENSOR AT CHIEF JOSEPH IS ALREADY REPORTING GUSTS TO AROUND 60 MPH.
THE MODELS SHOW WINDS OVER 50 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS MOST OF THE DAY
ACROSS THE NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAINS. I HAVE MY DOUBTS THAT THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WOULD BLOW HIGH WIND DURING THE DAY TODAY AS THE WINDS MAY
HAVE TROUBLE MIXING DOWN. HOWEVER...WE WILL ISSUE THE UPGRADE THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING BUT MENTION THE STRONGEST WINDS WOULD
BE LATE TONIGHT. ELSEWHERE...THERE ARE SOME STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA. HOWEVER...WITH HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE AREA MIXING SHOULD BE
FAIRLY LIMITED. NOW FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES...IT WILL BE WARMER TODAY
ALTHOUGH AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW YESTERDAY WILL
BE COOLER. WE DON`T KNOW THE GFS MOS HAS BEEN SMOKING IN THE
RIVERTON AND LANDER AREAS. THEY ARE GIVING RIVERTON AND LANDER A
HIGH OF 72 DEGREES TODAY. DON`T KNOW HOW THAT WOULD HAPPEN WITH SOME
LEE ENHANCED CLOUDS AND NOT A LOT OF MIXING. EVEN IF WE DID FULLY
MIX...700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES ONLY GIVE A HIGH OF 60. SO...THAT
GUIDANCE WAS THROWN IN THE TRASH. OOPS...THIS IS 2014...I MEAN IN
THE RECYCLE BIN. AS FOR PRECIPITATION...THE MODELS ARE SHOWING A BIT
OF SNOW MAINLY ACROSS YELLOWSTONE LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH SOME
LEFT FRONT JET ENERGY. HOWEVER...AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.
AS FOR FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE..EXPECT ANOTHER MILD DAY. THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS ONCE AGAIN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR. AT THIS TIME...WE KEPT WINDS BELOW HIGH
WIND CRITERIA BUT IT WILL HAVE TO BE WATCHED. THIS MAY BE A WARMER DAY WITH
BETTER MIXING BUT ONCE AGAIN...THE NUMBERS IN THE 70S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN LOOK OVERDONE. THE STRONGEST WINDS ALOFT LOOK TO BE
FRIDAY NIGHT BUT THIS MAY LIMIT MIXING.

NOW FOR THE NEXT MAIN WEATHER MAKER. ANOTHER WEATHER MAKER WILL
APPROACH FROM THE WET AND BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER
FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE MAIN EVENT LOOKS TO HOLD OFF UNTIL
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT WHEN THE BEST MOISTURE AND JET DYNAMICS
WORK INTO THE AREA. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS IN CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE
AT THIS TIME SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES. MEANWHILE...AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE SHOULD SQUEEZE OUT ONE MORE MILD AND DRY DAY ALTHOUGH IT WILL
BE BREEZY TO WINDY AND DRY DAY. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN BEGIN
DROPPING INTO WYOMING FROM THE NORTH IN THE EVENING AND DROP ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA BY SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL USHER IN MUCH COLDER
TEMPERATURES. IT COULD ALSO BRING A PERIOD OF SNOW TO SOME AREAS.
HOWEVER...DETAILS ON HOW MUCH ARE STILL MUDDY AT THIS POINT. STAY
TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT SHOULD BE ALONG THE DIVIDE BY 12Z SUNDAY. THIS
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE VERY LITTLE SUNDAY...SEPARATING A BITTER
COLD AIR MASS EAST...WITH SEASONAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS
WEST/SOUTHWEST. A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
ROCKIES...AND A STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE FORECAST AREA WILL
GIVE A CHANCE OF SNOWFALL ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY...GENERALLY
SHIFTING FROM NORTH TO SOUTH DURING THE DAY. LOOKS LIKE THE BEST
SNOWFALL CHANCES SHOULD BE BEST IN THE MORNING...BEFORE THE BULK OF
ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXITS INTO THE PLAINS...AND THE
BAROCLINIC ZONE OVER THE AREA WEAKENS/SLIDES SOUTH AND EAST. ALSO
MODELS ARE SHOWING AT SOME ISENTROPIC LIFT OVER THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
SUNDAY MORNING. DURING SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING...MODELS
ARE HINTING AT A MOIST SHEAR AXIS REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...TRANSITIONING INTO A MODEST MOIST
WESTERLY FLOW DURING SUNDAY NIGHT.

ON MONDAY/MONDAY NIGHT...GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
ANOTHER QUICK MOVING SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHING ACROSS THE EXTREME NORTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS. AHEAD OF THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH...A
MOIST OROGRAPHIC FLOW SHOULD RESULT IN LIGHT TO PERHAPS MODERATE
SNOW OVER THE WEST MONDAY...WHILE A LEE TROUGH DEVELOPS HELPING TO
QUICKLY ERODE THE ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE ON SUNDAY. SOME TRAPPED
BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN
MIGHT BE HARD PRESSED TO WARM UP...BUT TYPICAL MIXED AREAS SHOULD
WARM UP NICELY. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WITH THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO PUSH ACROSS THE AREA LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING...BUT IS NOT NEARLY AS COLD AS THE ARCTIC FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT.
AHEAD OF THE FRONT MONDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER HIGH WIND EVENT COULD BE
SETTING UP OVER THE ABSAROKA MTS/CODY FOOTHILLS. THE MAIN DYNAMICS
AND BAROCLINIC ZONE WITH THIS SYSTEM IS FARTHER NORTH WITH THIS
SYSTEM RESULTING IN LESS OF A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...BUT THE NORTHWEST/WESTERN MOUNTAINS SHOULD SEE SOME SNOW
THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING.

THERE COULD BE A SMALL BREAK IN THE ACTION LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...BEFORE THE FOCUS TURNS TO A CLOSED UPPER LOW OVER THE
EASTERN PACIFIC. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARD THIS UPPER LOW
MOVING INTO THE WEST COAST TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...AND BECOMING
AN OPEN WAVE IMPACTING THE ROCKIES IN THE WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY TIME
FRAME. HOWEVER...THERE REMAINS SOME MODELS THAT SHOW A RIDGE
DEVELOPING OVER THE ROCKIES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...WITH THIS
UPPER LOW MAINLY IMPACTING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST MID WEEK. WITH
THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL BROAD BRUSH SLIGHT VALLEY/CHANCE MTN POPS
OVER THE WEST/SOUTHWEST WHILE KEEPING AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE DRY
FOR NOW. THE PACIFIC NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM OR THE RIDGE BUILDING
OVER THE AREA WILL RESULT IN MAINLY ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPS FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN THROUGH 16Z BEFORE SOME IMPROVEMENT IS EXPECTED.  THERE
SHOULD BE SOME EROSION OF THE FOG BANK ON THE WEST END...VCNTY AND
WEST KCOD...AS STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS PROVIDE BETTER MIXING.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH MUCH MORE PATCHY FOG PARTIALLY OBSCURING LOWER RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGH 18Z.  AREAS OF LLWS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KLND-KCOD...WHERE WINDS IN THE FL080-100 LAYER WILL BE
270/50-60KTS.  SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS INTO VCNTY KCOD-KDUB BY 00Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50-60 KTS BY
SUNRISE THIS MORNING...RESULTING IN INCREASING TURBULENCE
THROUGH THE REST OF THE PERIOD.  THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO
KEEP SOME HIGHER MTNS OBSCURED IN -SN WITH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS VCNTY
KJAC THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL LINGER OVER THE NORTHWEST TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH
WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...AREAS
OF FOG WILL REMAIN INTO THIS MORNING BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER
WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS. ANOTHER STORM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST FOR
SATURDAY. EXPECT MILD...DRY AND BREEZY TO WINDY WEATHER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 5 PM MST SATURDAY
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 270630
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 245 PM MST)

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES... AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...WRN CONUS UPR LVL RIDGE PUSHING INTO AND
FLATTENING ACROSS THE FA. SFC SHOWS GENERAL HI P WEST WITH LOWERING
PRESSURE EAST OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN WY. TIGHTENING
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRAD ALONG/OVR/NEAR ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES FOR
EXCELLENT MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION...GIVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS ACROSS THE ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS. THIS SET-UP WILL LAST FROM LATER IN THE DAY
THANKSGIVING THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN NPW FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SW TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET. A SRN STREAM OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NWRN WY THRU THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OFFERING LOW END CHCS FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY YELLOWSTONE THE WAY IT LOOKS ATTM.
HOWEVER...FCST EPV FIELDS SHOW MAJOR CYCLO/FRONTO-GENESIS ALSO
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY OVR THE NWRN CONUS...CONTINUING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS
THE WRN FA BY SAT AS MORE PAC MOISTURE ALSO SINKS INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATER FRI NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY SAT...STRONG SFC TO UPR LVL
FORCING WILL COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING TO GIVE A GOOD PERIOD...18 TO 24
HRS...OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING AND FCST TO AVG AROUND AN INCH/HR AT
TIMES...TOTAL SNOW FALL OF 12 -16 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY...WITH 4 TO 8 ACROSS THE VALLEYS. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FOR CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO POSITION
AND INTENSITY OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING THE EXACT
HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED OUT WEST. THEN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS...WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
WELL FORMED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA GIVING AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE CNTRL BASINS AS WELL THE ERN
ZONES. BEST OVERALL FORCING E OF THE DIVIDE LOOKS TO SET-UP FROM
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...TO ERN FREMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTH
PASS AREA. THIS SITUATION COULD PRODUCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY WHERE DEEP
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A 6 TO 9 HR PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR FUTURE HIGHLIGHTS.

THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE CWA MON NIGHT WITH MOSTLY FAIR/COLD
CONDITIONS MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER GOOD UPR LVL SITUATION LEADING FROM
LEE TROFFING TO EVENTUALLY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY/CO THRU THE DAY TUE. BY LATER MON NIGHT...TERRAIN
FORCED SNOW LOOKS PROMISING ONCE AGAIN IN THE NW MOUNTAINS BEFORE
WRAP-AROUND FORCING FROM THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS FOR INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUE INTO
WED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG BANK ON THE WEST END...VCNTY AND WEST KCOD...AS
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS MIX DOWN.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH MUCH MORE PATCHY FOG PARTIALLY OBSCURING LOWER RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGH 18Z.  AREAS OF LLWS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KLND-KCOD...WHERE WINDS IN THE FL080-100 LAYER WILL BE
270/50-60KTS.  SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS INTO VCNTY KCOD-KDUB BY 00Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50-60 KTS BY
12Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING TURBULENCE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP SOME HIGHER
MTNS OBSCURED IN -SN WITH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS VCNTY KJAC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER















000
FXUS65 KRIW 270630
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1128 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

UPDATE...UPDATED TO ADD 06Z AVIATION DISCUSSION.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 245 PM MST)

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES... AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...WRN CONUS UPR LVL RIDGE PUSHING INTO AND
FLATTENING ACROSS THE FA. SFC SHOWS GENERAL HI P WEST WITH LOWERING
PRESSURE EAST OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN WY. TIGHTENING
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRAD ALONG/OVR/NEAR ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES FOR
EXCELLENT MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION...GIVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS ACROSS THE ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS. THIS SET-UP WILL LAST FROM LATER IN THE DAY
THANKSGIVING THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN NPW FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SW TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET. A SRN STREAM OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NWRN WY THRU THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OFFERING LOW END CHCS FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY YELLOWSTONE THE WAY IT LOOKS ATTM.
HOWEVER...FCST EPV FIELDS SHOW MAJOR CYCLO/FRONTO-GENESIS ALSO
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY OVR THE NWRN CONUS...CONTINUING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS
THE WRN FA BY SAT AS MORE PAC MOISTURE ALSO SINKS INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATER FRI NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY SAT...STRONG SFC TO UPR LVL
FORCING WILL COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING TO GIVE A GOOD PERIOD...18 TO 24
HRS...OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING AND FCST TO AVG AROUND AN INCH/HR AT
TIMES...TOTAL SNOW FALL OF 12 -16 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY...WITH 4 TO 8 ACROSS THE VALLEYS. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FOR CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO POSITION
AND INTENSITY OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING THE EXACT
HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED OUT WEST. THEN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS...WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
WELL FORMED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA GIVING AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE CNTRL BASINS AS WELL THE ERN
ZONES. BEST OVERALL FORCING E OF THE DIVIDE LOOKS TO SET-UP FROM
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...TO ERN FREMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTH
PASS AREA. THIS SITUATION COULD PRODUCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY WHERE DEEP
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A 6 TO 9 HR PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR FUTURE HIGHLIGHTS.

THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE CWA MON NIGHT WITH MOSTLY FAIR/COLD
CONDITIONS MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER GOOD UPR LVL SITUATION LEADING FROM
LEE TROFFING TO EVENTUALLY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY/CO THRU THE DAY TUE. BY LATER MON NIGHT...TERRAIN
FORCED SNOW LOOKS PROMISING ONCE AGAIN IN THE NW MOUNTAINS BEFORE
WRAP-AROUND FORCING FROM THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS FOR INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUE INTO
WED.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF IFR/LIFR FOG OR LIFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN OVERNIGHT WELL INTO THURSDAY MORNING.  THERE SHOULD BE SOME
EROSION OF THE FOG BANK ON THE WEST END...VCNTY AND WEST KCOD...AS
STRONGER DOWNSLOPE WINDS MIX DOWN.

OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA
WITH MUCH MORE PATCHY FOG PARTIALLY OBSCURING LOWER RIVER VALLEYS
THROUGH 18Z.  AREAS OF LLWS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...VCNTY
KLND-KCOD...WHERE WINDS IN THE FL080-100 LAYER WILL BE
270/50-60KTS.  SOME OF THESE STRONGER WINDS WILL PUSH DOWN THE
FOOTHILLS INTO VCNTY KCOD-KDUB BY 00Z FRIDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

WINDS AT MOUNTAIN TOP LEVEL WILL INCREASE TO BETWEEN 50-60 KTS BY
12Z THURSDAY...RESULTING IN INCREASING TURBULENCE THROUGH THE REST
OF THE PERIOD.  THIS STRONG WESTERLY FLOW WILL ALSO KEEP SOME HIGHER
MTNS OBSCURED IN -SN WITH SOME LCL MVFR CIGS VCNTY KJAC.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER














000
FXUS65 KRIW 262145
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
245 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES... AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...WRN CONUS UPR LVL RIDGE PUSHING INTO AND
FLATTENING ACROSS THE FA. SFC SHOWS GENERAL HI P WEST WITH LOWERING
PRESSURE EAST OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN WY. TIGHTENING
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRAD ALONG/OVR/NEAR ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES FOR
EXCELLENT MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION...GIVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS ACROSS THE ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS. THIS SET-UP WILL LAST FROM LATER IN THE DAY
THANKSGIVING THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN NPW FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SW TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET. A SRN STREAM OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NWRN WY THRU THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OFFERING LOW END CHCS FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY YELLOWSTONE THE WAY IT LOOKS ATTM.
HOWEVER...FCST EPV FIELDS SHOW MAJOR CYCLO/FRONTO-GENESIS ALSO
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY OVR THE NWRN CONUS...CONTINUING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS
THE WRN FA BY SAT AS MORE PAC MOISTURE ALSO SINKS INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATER FRI NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY SAT...STRONG SFC TO UPR LVL
FORCING WILL COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING TO GIVE A GOOD PERIOD...18 TO 24
HRS...OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING AND FCST TO AVG AROUND AN INCH/HR AT
TIMES...TOTAL SNOW FALL OF 12 -16 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY...WITH 4 TO 8 ACROSS THE VALLEYS. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FOR CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO POSITION
AND INTENSITY OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING THE EXACT
HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED OUT WEST. THEN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS...WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
WELL FORMED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA GIVING AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE CNTRL BASINS AS WELL THE ERN
ZONES. BEST OVERALL FORCING E OF THE DIVIDE LOOKS TO SET-UP FROM
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...TO ERN FREMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTH
PASS AREA. THIS SITUATION COULD PRODUCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY WHERE DEEP
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A 6 TO 9 HR PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR FUTURE HIGHLIGHTS.

THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE CWA MON NIGHT WITH MOSTLY FAIR/COLD
CONDITIONS MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER GOOD UPR LVL SITUATION LEADING FROM
LEE TROFFING TO EVENTUALLY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY/CO THRU THE DAY TUE. BY LATER MON NIGHT...TERRAIN
FORCED SNOW LOOKS PROMISING ONCE AGAIN IN THE NW MOUNTAINS BEFORE
WRAP-AROUND FORCING FROM THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS FOR INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUE INTO
WED.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN LIGHT
SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE NORTH
IMPACTING VICINITY KCOD...KWRL...KGEY...KPOY AND KBYG AT TIMES.
TO THE SOUTH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS
ACROSS THE BIGHORN BASIN AND WIND RIVER BASIN AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG VICINITY KTHP...KRIW
AND KLND. ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AREAS OF 35 TO 45 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN LIGHT
SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS
AND RESERVOIRS IN THE VALLEYS AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG VICINITY KJAC...KAFO...
KBPI AND KPNA. OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AREAS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER











000
FXUS65 KRIW 262145
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
245 PM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. PLEASE REFER TO THE HIGH WIND WATCH FOR MORE DETAILS.
IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES... AREAS OF FOG
MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING BEFORE
DISSIPATING.

.LONG TERM...THURSDDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

BEGINNING OF FCST...WRN CONUS UPR LVL RIDGE PUSHING INTO AND
FLATTENING ACROSS THE FA. SFC SHOWS GENERAL HI P WEST WITH LOWERING
PRESSURE EAST OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS ACROSS ERN WY. TIGHTENING
THERMAL AND PRESSURE GRAD ALONG/OVR/NEAR ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS IN
ADDITION TO INCREASING WINDS ALOFT BECOMING MORE FAVORABLY ORIENTED
IN ALL DIRECTIONS WITH RESPECT TO THE MOUNTAIN RIDGELINES FOR
EXCELLENT MOUNTAIN WAVE PRODUCTION...GIVING AN EXTENDED PERIOD OF
STRONG...POSSIBLY DAMAGING...WINDS ACROSS THE ABSAROKAS AND ADJACENT
CODY FOOTHILLS. THIS SET-UP WILL LAST FROM LATER IN THE DAY
THANKSGIVING THRU THE DAY ON SATURDAY. AN NPW FOR A HIGH WIND WATCH
HAS BEEN ISSUED.

THE RIDGE CONTINUES TO FLATTEN THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY WITH THE
APPROACH OF THE NEXT SW TROF AND ASSOCIATED JET. A SRN STREAM OF
MODEST MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO STREAM INTO NWRN WY THRU THE DAY ON
FRIDAY OFFERING LOW END CHCS FOR OROGRAPHICALLY FORCED SNOW ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS OF MAINLY YELLOWSTONE THE WAY IT LOOKS ATTM.
HOWEVER...FCST EPV FIELDS SHOW MAJOR CYCLO/FRONTO-GENESIS ALSO
BEGINNING DURING THE DAY OVR THE NWRN CONUS...CONTINUING INTO THE NRN
ROCKIES THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND BECOMING A MAJOR PLAYER ACROSS
THE WRN FA BY SAT AS MORE PAC MOISTURE ALSO SINKS INTO THE REGION
BEGINNING LATER FRI NIGHT. THROUGH THE DAY SAT...STRONG SFC TO UPR LVL
FORCING WILL COME TOGETHER ALONG WITH THE INCREASING AVAILABLE
MOISTURE AND TERRAIN FORCING TO GIVE A GOOD PERIOD...18 TO 24
HRS...OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOWFALL OVR THE WRN MOUNTAINS. WITH
SNOWFALL RATES INCREASING AND FCST TO AVG AROUND AN INCH/HR AT
TIMES...TOTAL SNOW FALL OF 12 -16 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL NOT
BE OUT OF THE ORDINARY...WITH 4 TO 8 ACROSS THE VALLEYS. WILL WATCH
THE EVOLUTION OF THE STORM FOR CONSISTENCY WITH RESPECT TO POSITION
AND INTENSITY OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS BEFORE DECIDING THE EXACT
HIGHLIGHTS NEEDED OUT WEST. THEN...IT DOES LOOK LIKE THIS STORM WILL
AFFECT MOST OF THE REST OF THE CWA ON SUNDAY AS...WHAT LOOKS TO BE A
WELL FORMED FRONT PUSHES SOUTH ACROSS THE FA GIVING AT LEAST A SHORT
PERIOD OF DECENT UPSLOPE FLOW OVR THE CNTRL BASINS AS WELL THE ERN
ZONES. BEST OVERALL FORCING E OF THE DIVIDE LOOKS TO SET-UP FROM
JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...TO ERN FREMONT AND TOWARD THE SOUTH
PASS AREA. THIS SITUATION COULD PRODUCE GOOD AMOUNTS OF SNOW
PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF NATRONA COUNTY WHERE DEEP
FORCING AND MOISTURE WILL BE MAXIMIZED FOR A 6 TO 9 HR PERIOD. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR THIS AREA FOR FUTURE HIGHLIGHTS.

THE FRONT PASSES THRU THE CWA MON NIGHT WITH MOSTLY FAIR/COLD
CONDITIONS MON AHEAD OF ANOTHER GOOD UPR LVL SITUATION LEADING FROM
LEE TROFFING TO EVENTUALLY LEE SIDE CYCLOGENESIS ACROSS THE HIGH
PLAINS OF WY/CO THRU THE DAY TUE. BY LATER MON NIGHT...TERRAIN
FORCED SNOW LOOKS PROMISING ONCE AGAIN IN THE NW MOUNTAINS BEFORE
WRAP-AROUND FORCING FROM THE LEE CYCLOGENESIS ALLOWS FOR INCREASING
POPS ACROSS THE SRN HALF OF THE FA FROM WEST TO EAST LATER TUE INTO
WED.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN LIGHT
SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE NORTH
IMPACTING VICINITY KCOD...KWRL...KGEY...KPOY AND KBYG AT TIMES.
TO THE SOUTH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS
ACROSS THE BIGHORN BASIN AND WIND RIVER BASIN AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODS
OF IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG VICINITY KTHP...KRIW
AND KLND. ALONG AND EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE STRONG WEST
WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AREAS OF 35 TO 45 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AFT 18Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

AREAS OF MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN LIGHT
SNOW AND FOG WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH 15Z ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. TO THE SOUTH AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP ALONG THE RIVERS
AND RESERVOIRS IN THE VALLEYS AND MAY PRODUCE PERIODS OF IFR
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN FOG VICINITY KJAC...KAFO...
KBPI AND KPNA. OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS AND EAST TO THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...STRONG WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH AREAS
OF 35 TO 45 KTS GUSTING TO 65 KTS AFT 18Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

LIGHT SNOW WILL DECREASE OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY TONIGHT WITH
WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST THROUGH
THURSDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AS WEST WINDS INCREASE ACROSS THE
AREA. HIGH WINDS WILL BECOME A THREAT EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY IN THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS INTO THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS ALONG RIVERS AND LAKES...
AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT AND REMAIN INTO THURSDAY MORNING
BEFORE DISSIPATING. SNOW COVER WILL REMAIN WIDESPREAD OVER MOST OF
THE AREA WITH LOW FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH SATURDAY
AFTERNOON WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER












000
FXUS65 KRIW 261751
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1051 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER UNTIL 00Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 00Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
OCCUR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE BIGHORN BASIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF
THE WEST THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE
TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z.
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE BIGHORN BASIN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 261751
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1051 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL LINGER UNTIL 00Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR. AFTER 00Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL
OCCUR WELL INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING
UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY. WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING...AND
WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP
IN THE BIGHORN BASIN ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 00Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 03Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF
THE WEST THROUGH 03Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT
WILL OCCUR AFTER 03Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE
TERMINAL SITES. EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z.
WITH FRESH SNOW COVER AND CLEARING...AND WARM AIR ADVECTION IN
THE MID LEVELS EXPECT AREAS OF FOG TO DEVELOP IN THE BIGHORN BASIN
ESPECIALLY ALONG THE RIVERS AND RESERVOIRS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 261604
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
904 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 261604
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
904 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 261601
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
901 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ004-006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 261601
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
901 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NORTHERN
WYOMING EXPIRED AT 9 AM MST.

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE
SNOW...CAUSED BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT
JET...SHOULD TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE
HELPS TO STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION
HAS ALREADY BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE
EXPECT ONE MORE BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE
WARNINGS FOR THE SALT RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND
JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY
EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT
APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT
WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR NOT TO EXTEND THEM.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD END FROM SOUTHWEST
TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE
AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD AIR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY TODAY. NOT AS
MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH. AND AREAS
THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET HELD
DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ004-006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 261233
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
533 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A ROUGH NIGHT IN THE WEATHER OFFICE TONIGHT. IT TURNS OUT I HAVE TO
EAT A MAJOR HELPING OF CROW ON THIS FORECAST AS MOTHER NATURE AND
WYOMING WEATHER DECIDED TO THROW US A CURVEBALL OF COOPERSTOWN
STANDARDS. THE MODELS LIKEWISE DID NOT HANDLE THE STORM WELL AT
ALL. BUT ENOUGH ABOUT THE PAST...LETS FOCUS ON THE FUTURE.

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE SNOW...CAUSED
BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT JET...SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE EXPECT ONE MORE
BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR THE SALT
RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE
REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS
RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND THEM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY
TODAY. NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH.
AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET
HELD DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ004-006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 261233
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
533 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.UPDATE...

LIGHT SNOWFALL CONTINUES ACROSS NORTH/NW WYOMING WITH SOME
ENHANCEMENT ACROSS THE NORTHEASTERN BIGHORN BASIN/BIGHORN
MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH THE SNOW WILL GRADUALLY TAPER OFF IN COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY FROM SOUTH TO NORTH TODAY...DECIDED THE EASTERN
BIGHORN BASIN AND BIGHORN MTS NEEDED AN EXTENSION OF WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS AS SNOWFALL IN THIS MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW SEEMS TO HANG
ON A BIT LONGER IN THOSE AREAS...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MTS.
HOWEVER IMPACTS AND SNOWFALL THIS MORNING/TODAY WILL BE LESS THAN
WHAT OCCURRED TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT...THUS DECIDED FOR A
WINTER WX ADVISORY INSTEAD OF CONTINUING THE WARNING.

UPDATE ALREADY OUT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 323 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014/

SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A ROUGH NIGHT IN THE WEATHER OFFICE TONIGHT. IT TURNS OUT I HAVE TO
EAT A MAJOR HELPING OF CROW ON THIS FORECAST AS MOTHER NATURE AND
WYOMING WEATHER DECIDED TO THROW US A CURVEBALL OF COOPERSTOWN
STANDARDS. THE MODELS LIKEWISE DID NOT HANDLE THE STORM WELL AT
ALL. BUT ENOUGH ABOUT THE PAST...LETS FOCUS ON THE FUTURE.

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE SNOW...CAUSED
BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT JET...SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE EXPECT ONE MORE
BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR THE SALT
RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE
REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS
RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND THEM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY
TODAY. NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH.
AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET
HELD DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.

LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ008-009.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ004-006.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 261023
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
323 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A ROUGH NIGHT IN THE WEATHER OFFICE TONIGHT. IT TURNS OUT I HAVE TO
EAT A MAJOR HELPING OF CROW ON THIS FORECAST AS MOTHER NATURE AND
WYOMING WEATHER DECIDED TO THROW US A CURVEBALL OF COOPERSTOWN
STANDARDS. THE MODELS LIKEWISE DID NOT HANDLE THE STORM WELL AT
ALL. BUT ENOUGH ABOUT THE PAST...LETS FOCUS ON THE FUTURE.

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE SNOW...CAUSED
BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT JET...SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE EXPECT ONE MORE
BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR THE SALT
RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE
REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS
RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND THEM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY
TODAY. NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH.
AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET
HELD DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012-014-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING
WYZ003-005>007-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 261023
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
323 AM MST WED NOV 26 2014

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A ROUGH NIGHT IN THE WEATHER OFFICE TONIGHT. IT TURNS OUT I HAVE TO
EAT A MAJOR HELPING OF CROW ON THIS FORECAST AS MOTHER NATURE AND
WYOMING WEATHER DECIDED TO THROW US A CURVEBALL OF COOPERSTOWN
STANDARDS. THE MODELS LIKEWISE DID NOT HANDLE THE STORM WELL AT
ALL. BUT ENOUGH ABOUT THE PAST...LETS FOCUS ON THE FUTURE.

THE RULE OF TODAY SHOULD BE IMPROVING CONDITIONS. THE SNOW...CAUSED
BY THE LIFT FROM THE RIGHT REAR QUAD OF AN 150 KNOT JET...SHOULD
TAPER OFF AS THE JET MOVES AWAY AND A BUILDING RIDGE HELPS TO
STABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE. THE EDGE OF THE PRECIPITATION HAS ALREADY
BEGUN TO SHIFT NORTHWARD AS THE JET MOVES AWAY. WE EXPECT ONE MORE
BOUT OF SNOW HAS THE LAST LIFT MOVES NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA. WITH
THE PRECIPITATION LARGELY OVER ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF
THE HIGHLIGHTS...WE WILL CANCEL THE WARNINGS FOR THE SALT
RANGE...THE UPPER GREEN FOOTHILLS AND JACKSON HOLE. AS FOR THE
REST...THE REST WE WILL KEEP UNTIL THEY EXPIRE. WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY. AT THIS TIME...IT APPEARS WE WILL LET THE WARNINGS
RIDE THROUGH 5 AM AND THEN IT WILL BE A GAME TIME DECISION WHETHER OR
NOT TO EXTEND THEM. MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE THE SNOW SHOULD
END FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHWEST AND RIDGING AND SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE BUILD INTO THE AREA. AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THERE IS NO COLD
AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM SO TEMPERATURES SHOULD RECOVER FAIRLY NICELY
TODAY. NOT AS MUCH AS THE GFS NUMBERS WHICH ARE OUT TO LUNCH THOUGH.
AND AREAS THAT RECEIVED A DECENT AMOUNT OF SNOW WILL SEE HIGHS GET
HELD DOWN. IT WILL BE ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY IN SOME AREAS AS
WELL. HOWEVER...NOT AS WINDY AS YESTERDAY SO HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS
ARE NOT ANTICIPATED.

WE THEN ENTER A QUIETER PERIOD FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MOST OF
THE REST OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. 90 PERCENT OF THE AREA SHOULD BE
PRECIPITATION FREE THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE MAIN FEATURES WILL BE
ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND GUSTY BREEZE AT TIMES WITH RIDGING
OVER THE AREA. THERE IS ONE AREA WITH ONCE WITH HIGH WIND AND THAT
IS...YOU GUESSED IT...THE CODY FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY AROUND CLARK.
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATER THURSDAY INTO
THURSDAY NIGHT. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS INCREASE TO AROUND 70 KNOTS ON
SOME OF THE MODELS. SO...MORE HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS SEEM A DECENT
POSSIBILITY FOR THAT AREA. THAT AFOREMENTIONED SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO
BRING MORE SNOW TO PORTIONS OF THE WEST. AT THIS POINT...IT SEEMS TO
BE CONFINED TO NORTHWESTERN AREAS FOR FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY THE TETONS AND YELLOWSTONE PARK. BUT...THERE IS
UNCERTAINTY SO STAY TUNED.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW...COMBINING WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH
PUSHING SOUTHEAST OUT OF BRITISH COLUMBIA...COULD MAKE MAKE FOR SOME
HOLIDAY TRAVEL HEADACHES THIS WEEKEND ESPECIALLY OVER WESTERN
MOUNTAIN PASSES...BUT AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR.

ON SATURDAY...SNOWFALL SHOULD BE ONGOING OVER THE FAR WEST...AND
SHOULD INCREASE IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHWEST...AS ENERGY FROM THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD
THE REGION. AT THE SURFACE...A RELATIVELY SHALLOW ARCTIC COLD FRONT
WILL BE ON THE DOORSTEP SATURDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
MONTANA...AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTH...EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THESE SHALLOW ARCTIC AIR MASSES ARE
NOTORIOUS FOR MAKING IT FARTHER SOUTH EARLIER THAN EXPECTED...AND
HAVE TRENDED TEMPS COOLER OVER THE FAR NORTH FOR MAX TEMPS
SATURDAY. STRONG WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT WILL TRY TO INHIBIT THE
SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY SATURDAY...BUT
SHOULD PROGRESS TO THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. DRY CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT
WITH WARM TEMPS. HOWEVER THIS COULD CHANGE SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
WITH MODELS SHOWING A DECENT BAROCLINIC ZONE SETTING UP OVER
NORTHERN WYOMING WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME ACCUMULATING SNOW. IN
THE END...WINTER HIGHLIGHTS...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WEST/NORTHWEST
MOUNTAINS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED IN THE SATURDAY THRU SUNDAY
MORNING TIME FRAME. THE WESTERN VALLEYS COULD SEE ENOUGH WARM AIR
ADVECT NORTHWARD FOR SOME RAIN SATURDAY WHICH MAKES WINTER
HIGHLIGHTS LESS CERTAIN. THIS SYSTEM WILL ALSO BE VERY
WINDY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTH PASS TO CASPER AREA WHERE HIGH
WIND HIGHLIGHTS WILL PROBABLY BE NEEDED. STRONG TO HIGH WINDS WILL
PROBABLY ALSO OCCUR IN THE ABSAROKA/CODY FOOTHILLS SATURDAY
MORNING.

A BREAK IN THE ACTION IS EXPECTED MONDAY...WITH THE ARCTIC AIR MASS
RETREATING WITH MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS. HAVE GONE COLDER THAN
GUIDANCE IN TYPICAL TRAPPED BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIGHORN BASIN.

ANOTHER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT COULD IMPACT THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT THRU TUESDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME BRINGING BACK CHANCES FOR
WINTRY PRECIPITATION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR WELL INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SNOW WILL END FROM SOUTH TO NORTH THIS MORNING WITH MAINLY DRY
WEATHER FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. GUSTY WINDS
WILL DEVELOP ACROSS THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER
AND DOWNWIND OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS BUT NOT AS STRONG AS RECENT
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012-014-015.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST EARLY THIS MORNING
WYZ003-005>007-010-011.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 260548
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1048 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...ALL OTHER ADVISORIES AND WARNING REMAIN AS IS FOR NOW.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAS SERIOUSLY IMPACTED THE SNOW FORECAST.
STILL HANGING IN AT 32 AT AFO WITH SNOW.  MID DAY REPORT OF 7 INCHES
AT ALPINE. ALSO IN THE NORTH IN BIGHORN COUNTY 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH TEMPS 32 TO 31 POWELL...GREYBULL...WORLAND...COWLEY AND CODY.
HIGH WINDS DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING AT KEMMERER AIRPORT
FRO THE PAST FEW HOURS. OTHER AREAS ALONG I 80 HAVE OCCASIONALLY HIT
HIGH WIND. UPGRADED ALL THE MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
MANY AREAS ALREADY IN THE 8 TO 11 INCH RANGE. ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
REST OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. UPGRADED
JACKSON HOLE AND STAR VALLEY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. STAR VALLEY
UNTIL 07Z WITH 12Z TERMINATION IN JACKSON HOLE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND DUBOIS ZONES GO THROUGH 06Z. NATRONA COUNTY AND WIND
RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS AND NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE. COOLED TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE
VERY WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF LINGERING SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST WY
WILL BE PERPETUATED BY THE CONTINUED STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DYNAMICS MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE FLATTENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...NOW A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...BUILDS INTO WYOMING FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE FLATTENING RIDGE KEEPING THE WINDS BLOWING IN THE MTNS WITHOUT A
LET UP WED NT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
IN SPEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR KICKING IN BY FRIDAY. AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL MIX OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BIG HORN BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY MOST
AREAS. OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH 30S TO
LOW 40S IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN THU/FRI WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN
PLACE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS WITH
THE CONTINUED NW TO WEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN BY
SATURDAY...SNOWFALL IN THE WEST WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY THE SPINNING POLAR VORTEX SWINGS BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHERN WY BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER THEN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
WARM UP MONDAY BEFORE COOLING EVERYWHERE TUE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT IS DOES SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SPLITTING PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WE CAPTURE THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY. THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
KEPT MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN WY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AREAS OF SNOW WILL END BY 15Z IN CENTRAL WY WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW
LINGERING UNTIL 18Z IN NORTHERN WY. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
WILL OCCUR. AFTER 18Z VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL
SITES. IN THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS SNOW WILL OCCUR THROUGH LATE
THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW SHOWERS LINGERING UNTIL 03Z THURSDAY.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE IN THE MOUNTAIN THROUGH 18Z...THEN
DECREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGH 00Z. EXPECT LOW CLOUDS IN PARTS OF THE
WEST THROUGH 18Z WITH MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS. IMPROVEMENT WILL OCCUR
AFTER 18Z WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING AT THE TERMINAL SITES.
EXPECT WINDY CONDITIONS AT KRKS THROUGH 02Z. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL
TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR MORE DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD SNOWY WINTER WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PERSIST. VARIOUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FOR WIND AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HATTINGS
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER














000
FXUS65 KRIW 260215
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
715 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IN THE SOUTH WE HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WE ALSO CANCELLED IN DUBOIS SINCE THE HIGH
WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. ALL OTHER ADVSIORIES AND WARNING REMAIN
AS IS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAS SERIOUSLY IMPACTED THE SNOW FORECAST.
STILL HANGING IN AT 32 AT AFO WITH SNOW.  MID DAY REPORT OF 7 INCHES
AT ALPINE. ALSO IN THE NORTH IN BIGHORN COUNTY 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH TEMPS 32 TO 31 POWELL...GREYBULL...WORLAND...COWLEY AND CODY.
HIGH WINDS DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING AT KEMMERER AIRPORT
FRO THE PAST FEW HOURS. OTHER AREAS ALONG I 80 HAVE OCCASIONALLY HIT
HIGH WIND. UPGRADED ALL THE MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
MANY AREAS ALREADY IN THE 8 TO 11 INCH RANGE. ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
REST OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. UPGRADED
JACKSON HOLE AND STAR VALLEY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. STAR VALLEY
UNTIL 07Z WITH 12Z TERMINATION IN JACKSON HOLE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND DUBOIS ZONES GO THROUGH 06Z. NATRONA COUNTY AND WIND
RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS AND NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE. COOLED TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE
VERY WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF LINGERING SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST WY
WILL BE PERPETUATED BY THE CONTINUED STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DYNAMICS MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE FLATTENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...NOW A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...BUILDS INTO WYOMING FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE FLATTENING RIDGE KEEPING THE WINDS BLOWING IN THE MTNS WITHOUT A
LET UP WED NT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
IN SPEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR KICKING IN BY FRIDAY. AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL MIX OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BIG HORN BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY MOST
AREAS. OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH 30S TO
LOW 40S IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN THU/FRI WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN
PLACE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS WITH
THE CONTINUED NW TO WEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN BY
SATURDAY...SNOWFALL IN THE WEST WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY THE SPINNING POLAR VORTEX SWINGS BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHERN WY BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER THEN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
WARM UP MONDAY BEFORE COOLING EVERYWHERE TUE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT IS DOES SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SPLITTING PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WE CAPTURE THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY. THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
KEPT MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN WY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  TO THE SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN
NATRONA COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 05Z.
STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 15Z TO 18Z. STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD SNOWY WINTER WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PERSIST. VARIOUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FOR WIND AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HATTINGS
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER












000
FXUS65 KRIW 260215
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
715 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...WITH THE WINDS DECREASING IN THE SOUTH WE HAVE CANCELLED
THE HIGH WIND WARNING. WE ALSO CANCELLED IN DUBOIS SINCE THE HIGH
WINDS HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED. ALL OTHER ADVSIORIES AND WARNING REMAIN
AS IS.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAS SERIOUSLY IMPACTED THE SNOW FORECAST.
STILL HANGING IN AT 32 AT AFO WITH SNOW.  MID DAY REPORT OF 7 INCHES
AT ALPINE. ALSO IN THE NORTH IN BIGHORN COUNTY 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW
WITH TEMPS 32 TO 31 POWELL...GREYBULL...WORLAND...COWLEY AND CODY.
HIGH WINDS DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING AT KEMMERER AIRPORT
FRO THE PAST FEW HOURS. OTHER AREAS ALONG I 80 HAVE OCCASIONALLY HIT
HIGH WIND. UPGRADED ALL THE MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH
MANY AREAS ALREADY IN THE 8 TO 11 INCH RANGE. ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
REST OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. UPGRADED
JACKSON HOLE AND STAR VALLEY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. STAR VALLEY
UNTIL 07Z WITH 12Z TERMINATION IN JACKSON HOLE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND DUBOIS ZONES GO THROUGH 06Z. NATRONA COUNTY AND WIND
RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW ADVISORY
AMOUNTS AND NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVEMENT SHOULD
ACCELERATE. COOLED TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WILL BE
VERY WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF LINGERING SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST WY
WILL BE PERPETUATED BY THE CONTINUED STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DYNAMICS MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE FLATTENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...NOW A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...BUILDS INTO WYOMING FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE FLATTENING RIDGE KEEPING THE WINDS BLOWING IN THE MTNS WITHOUT A
LET UP WED NT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
IN SPEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR KICKING IN BY FRIDAY. AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL MIX OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BIG HORN BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY MOST
AREAS. OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH 30S TO
LOW 40S IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN THU/FRI WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN
PLACE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS WITH
THE CONTINUED NW TO WEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN BY
SATURDAY...SNOWFALL IN THE WEST WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY THE SPINNING POLAR VORTEX SWINGS BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHERN WY BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER THEN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
WARM UP MONDAY BEFORE COOLING EVERYWHERE TUE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT IS DOES SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SPLITTING PACIFIC
TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WE CAPTURE THE NORTHERN STREAM
ENERGY. THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS.
KEPT MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN WY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  TO THE SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN
NATRONA COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 05Z.
STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 15Z TO 18Z. STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD SNOWY WINTER WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PERSIST. VARIOUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FOR WIND AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE
NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

UPDATE...HATTINGS
SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER











000
FXUS65 KRIW 252200
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW CONTINUES MUCH OF THE WEST AND NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. WARMER TEMPERATURES HAVE NOT MATERIALIZED...ESPECIALLY
IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AND HAS SERIOUSLY IMPACTED THE SNOW FORECAST.
STILL HANGING IN AT 32 AT AFO WITH SNOW.  MID DAY REPORT OF 7 INCHES
AT ALPINE. ALSO IN THE NORTH IN BIGHORN COUNTY 4-6 INCHES OF SNOW WITH
TEMPS 32 TO 31 POWELL...GREYBULL...WORLAND...COWLEY AND CODY. HIGH WINDS
DEVELOPED AND HAVE BEEN SUSTAINING AT KEMMERER AIRPORT FRO THE
PAST FEW HOURS. OTHER AREAS ALONG I 80 HAVE OCCASIONALLY HIT HIGH
WIND. UPGRADED ALL THE MOUNTAINS TO WINTER STORM WARNING WITH MANY
AREAS ALREADY IN THE 8 TO 11 INCH RANGE. ISSUED WINTER STORM
WARNING FOR BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE
REST OF THE BIGHORN BASIN AND EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. UPGRADED
JACKSON HOLE AND STAR VALLEY TO WINTER STORM WARNING. STAR VALLEY
UNTIL 07Z WITH 12Z TERMINATION IN JACKSON HOLE. WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. HIGH WIND WARNING FOR THE
SOUTHWEST AND DUBOIS ZONES GO THROUGH 06Z. NATRONA COUNTY AND WIND
RIVER BASIN WILL SEE SOME SNOW BUT ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW
ADVISORY AMOUNTS AND NOT WINDY ENOUGH FOR HIGH WIND. CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED TO IMPROVE SLOWLY THROUGH LATE MORNING THEN IMPROVEMENT
SHOULD ACCELERATE. COOLED TEMPERATURES MOST AREAS TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
THE SOUTHWEST WILL HAVE THE LEAST CHANGE IN TEMPERATURES AND WILL
BE VERY WELL MIXED.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT THE AREA OF LINGERING SNOWFALL IN NORTHWEST WY
WILL BE PERPETUATED BY THE CONTINUED STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE FROM
THE NORTHWEST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH AS THE DYNAMICS MOVE OFF
TO THE EAST WITH THE EXITING WEATHER SYSTEM AS THE FLATTENING HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE...NOW A STRONG RIDGE JUST OFF THE PACIFIC
COAST...BUILDS INTO WYOMING FROM THE WEST. THE STRONG FLOW FROM THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL BACK TO THE WEST BY FRIDAY WILL CONTINUE WITHIN
THE FLATTENING RIDGE KEEPING THE WINDS BLOWING IN THE MTNS WITHOUT A
LET UP WED NT THROUGH SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHWEST WINDS INCREASING
IN SPEED ALONG THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR KICKING IN BY FRIDAY. AS
THIS RIDGE BUILDS IN...ALMOST ALL AREAS WILL MIX OUT WITH HIGHS IN
THE LOW TO MID 50S EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN...THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF JOHNSON AND NATRONA COUNTIES...THE WESTERN PORTION OF
THE BIG HORN BASIN AS WELL AS ACROSS PORTIONS OF SWEETWATER COUNTY
THURSDAY AND FRIDAY MAKING FOR A PLEASANT THANKSGIVING DAY MOST
AREAS. OTHER LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL HAVE HIGHS IN THE 40S WITH 30S TO
LOW 40S IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE 40S
ACROSS THE EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN THU/FRI WITH FRESH SNOW COVER IN
PLACE THERE. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS WITH
THE CONTINUED NW TO WEST FLOW DURING THIS TIME FRAME. THEN BY
SATURDAY...SNOWFALL IN THE WEST WITH SOME RAIN MIXED IN WITH THE
SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS...IS EXPECTED AS THE NEXT NORTHERN
PACIFIC TROUGH BEING DRIVEN BY THE SPINNING POLAR VORTEX SWINGS BY
JUST TO OUR NORTH WITH NORTHERN WY BEING CONSIDERABLY COLDER THEN
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WY ON SUNDAY. THE SNOW WILL CONTINUE ON
SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WEST. DRYING IS EXPECTED SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL
WARM UP MONDAY BEFORE COOLING EVERYWHERE TUE BUT NOT TO THE EXTENT
THAT IS DOES SUNDAY IN THE NORTH AS THE NEXT SPLITTING PACIFIC TROUGH
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST AND WE CAPTURE THE NORTHERN STREAM ENERGY.
THE GFS AND THE EURO ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. KEPT
MORE SNOW IN THE FORECAST FOR WESTERN WY MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH THIS NEXT TROUGH.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.  TO THE SOUTH VFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN
NATRONA COUNTIES UNTIL 02Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTH BEHIND THE COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE BY 05Z.
STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 15Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 15Z TO 18Z. STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z THEN WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

COLD SNOWY WINTER WEATHER WITH STRONG WINDS AND LOW MIXING HEIGHTS
WILL PERSIST. VARIOUS WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES ARE IN EFFECT TONIGHT
FOR WIND AND SNOW. HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









000
FXUS65 KRIW 252018
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
118 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. ISSUED WINTER STORM WARING FOR
BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. ALSO ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. REPORTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES IN STAR
VALLEY AND 4 TO 6 INCHES IN BIGHORN COUNTY TODAY.

ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UPPER WIND RIVER CANYON...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

INCREASED SNOWFALL AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH AND WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE... UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIX THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW
AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE.  TO THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO
40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM MONTANA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 12Z TO 18Z.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 252018
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
118 PM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

UPGRADED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES TO WINTER STORM WARNINGS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN VALLEYS. ISSUED WINTER STORM WARING FOR
BIGHORN COUNTY WITH WINTER WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR THE REST OF THE
BIGHORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. ALSO ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY
FOR THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN. REPORTS OF 6 TO 7 INCHES IN STAR
VALLEY AND 4 TO 6 INCHES IN BIGHORN COUNTY TODAY.

ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UPPER WIND RIVER CANYON...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

INCREASED SNOWFALL AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH AND WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE... UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIX THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW
AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE.  TO THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO
40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM MONTANA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 12Z TO 18Z.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.

FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ003-005>007-010-011-025.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-004-008-009-012>015-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL MIDNIGHT MST TONIGHT WYZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 251756
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1056 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UPPER WIND RIVER CANYON...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

INCREASED SNOWFALL AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH AND WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE... UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIX THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW
AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE.  TO THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO
40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM MONTANA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 12Z TO 18Z.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 251756
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1056 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UPPER WIND RIVER CANYON...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR 35 TO 45 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.

INCREASED SNOWFALL AND CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS AND NORTH. SNOWFALL OF 1 TO 3 INCHES IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH. COLD FRONT COMING SOUTH AND WINDS HAVE
DECREASED ACROSS THE NORTH.

UPDATE... UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIX THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW
AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE.  TO THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES
UNTIL 00Z THEN IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTH BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT UP TO THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO
40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z. WINDS WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM MONTANA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 12Z TO 18Z.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ023.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 251626
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
926 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ISSUED HIGH WIND WARNING FOR UPPER WIND RIVER CANYON...SOUTHERN
LINCOLN...AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES FROM 11 AM MST THROUGH 11 PM MST THIS
EVENING FOR 35 TO 35 MPH WINDS GUSTING TO 60 MPH.


UPDATE... UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY MIX THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW
AND WITH TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN
SNOW FOR QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS
AFTERNOON ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9
HOURS OF MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SNOWFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND NORTH IFR TO MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES
REDUCED IN SNOW AND BLOWING SNOW WILL BE WIDESPREAD THROUGH 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN DECREASE...TO THE SOUTH VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES.
STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED
ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.  WINDS
WILL SHIFT TO THE NORTH AS A COLD FRONT MOVES SOUTH FROM MONTANA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

IFR TO LOCAL MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED IN SNOW AND
BLOWING SNOW WILL BE ACROSS THE EAST THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY WITH
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT FROM 12Z TO 18Z.  STRONG WEST WINDS 30 TO 40
KTS WITH GUSTS TO 60KTS ARE EXPECTED ALONG AND NEAR THE EAST
SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 06Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 PM MST THIS EVENING WYZ016-027>030.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ023.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 251125
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
425 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIX
THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN SNOW FOR
QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OF
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SN0WFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS TODAY. A GUSTY WIND
WILL  OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER
00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WED.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM 18Z
UNTIL 03Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE
DETAILS. EXPECT A STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ023.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 251125
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
425 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.UPDATE...
UPDATE TO ADD THE STAR VALLEY INTO THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MIX
THROUGH 00Z. SNOW COMING DOWN PRETTY HARD RIGHT NOW AND WITH
TEMPERATURES ONLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 20S IT WILL REMAIN SNOW FOR
QUITE A WHILE. COULD TRY AND CHANGE OVER LATER THIS AFTERNOON
ONWARD BUT THEY ARE UNDER A HIGH RISK FOR THE NEXT 6-9 HOURS OF
MORE MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW. WILL ALSO HAVE TO WATCH THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS UP TO THE JACKSON VALLEY FOR POTENTIAL UPGRADE IF
HEAVIER SNOW PERSISTS AS SN0WFALL RATES AROUND AN INCH PER HOUR
ARE QUITE POSSIBLE FROM NOW THROUGH AT LEAST THE MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS TODAY. A GUSTY WIND
WILL  OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER
00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WED.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM 18Z
UNTIL 03Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE
DETAILS. EXPECT A STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 PM MST THIS AFTERNOON WYZ023.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 250955
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
255 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS TODAY. A GUSTY WIND
WILL  OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER
00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WED.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM 18Z
UNTIL 03Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE
DETAILS. EXPECT A STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS











000
FXUS65 KRIW 250955
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
255 AM MST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

ONCE AGAIN WE THE ACTIVE PATTERN WE WILL DIVIDE THE FORECAST UP
BETWEEN WEST AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE POCATELLO RADAR IS FILLING RATHER NICELY AS
THE NEXT SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. WARM ADVECTION SNOW IS NOW
SPREADING INTO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. WE STILL ANTICIPATE THE THEN
HEAVIEST SNOW TO BE FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION. FOR THE MOST PART...THE CURRENT
HIGHLIGHTS LOOK PRETTY DARN GOOD AND WE WILL LET THEM RIDE FOR
NOW. THERE IS ONE EXCEPTION HOWEVER...THAT IS THE JACKSON VALLEY.
THIS ONE IS A TOUGH CALL. THE PROBLEM IS THE DIFFERENT IN THE
MODELS AND THE 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES THAT WILL BE CRITICAL.
THERE IS A DIFFERENCE WITH THE MODELS THOUGH. THE GFS IS WARMER
WITH 700 MILLIBAR TEMPERATURES RISING TO AROUND -3 TO -3.5 WHICH
WOULD PUSH THE SNOW LEVELS UP TO AROUND 7000 FEET AND BRING SOME
MIXING AND POSSIBLY CHANGING OVER TO RAIN. THE NAM MEANWHILE IS
COLDER WITH TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 4 TO 5 WHICH WOULD KEEP MOST
OF THE VALLEY AS ALL SNOW. FOR NOW WE DECIDED TO COMPROMISE...WE
WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. HOWEVER...THE BEST CHANCE OF
ADVISORY LEVEL SNOW WOULD BE NORTH OF THE JACKSON HOLE AIRPORT
TOWARD MOOSE AND MORAN JUNCTION. WE WILL SPECIFY THAT IN THE
ADVISORY. SNOW WILL BEGIN TO LIGHTEN TONIGHT AND ESPECIALLY
TOMORROW AS RIDGING BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH
AND WEST AND THE BEST UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT LIFTS OUT. COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO DECREASE THROUGH THE DAY WEDNESDAY BEFORE ENDING FOR
THE MOST PART BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. AT THIS TIME...WE HAVE DRIED
OUT THE WEATHER FOR THURSDAY FOR ALL AREAS WITH THE RIDGE OVER THE
AREA. ANOTHER SYSTEM MAY MOVE IN FOR LATER THURSDAY NIGHT BUT WITH
MODELS DISAGREEMENT WE KEPT THINGS MAINLY DRY FOR NOW.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...A TRICKY FORECAST HERE AS WELL. FIRST FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SNOW. AGAIN...THE MODELS ARE SPLIT. THE NAM IS THE
DRIEST AGAIN WITH THE GFS AND EUROPEAN A BIT WETTER. CONTINUITY FOR
THE BIG HORN RANGE LOOKS PRETTY GOOD AT THIS TIME WITH FAVORABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGING THE BEST ACCUMULATIONS TO THE WESTERN
SLOPES. SOME AREAS COULD REACH WARNING CRITERIA BUT WE STILL THINK
THIS SHOULD BE FAIRLY ISOLATED. THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR THE
BASINS...ESPECIALLY THE BIG HORN BASIN. SOME OF THE MODELS DO BRING
A DECENT AMOUNT OF QPF IN THAT AREA AS A BACKDOOR COLD FRONT GETS
OVERRUN BY THE MOISTURE COMING IN FROM THE WEST. IT LOOKS LIKE A
FAIRLY GOOD CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOME AREAS...ESPECIALLY THE
EASTERN BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY SO WE BUMPED THE POPS UP
TO LIKELY. THE NEXT QUESTION IS HOW MUCH SNOW WILL FALL.
TEMPERATURES ARE FAIRLY BORDERLINE HERE AS WELL. AGAIN...AS A
COMPROMISE WE RAISED AMOUNTS OF QPF AND SNOW. WE DID KEEP THE
AMOUNTS UNDER ADVISORY LEVELS HOWEVER. WE GUT FEELING IS THAT THE
BEST CHANCE OF ACCUMULATING SNOW WOULD BE TONIGHT SO THIS COULD BE
RE-EVALUATED BY THE DAY SHIFT. LIKE WEST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE
WILL DECREASE FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH AS THE BEST SUPPORT MOVES AWAY
AND RIDGING BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE PERIOD FROM
WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT LOOKS MAINLY DRY.

NOW FOR ACT TWO...THE HIGH WIND. AS EXPECTED...THE MOST IMPORTANT
CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK...HAS ALREADY REPORTED WINDS OVER 60
MPH. HOWEVER...STRONG WINDS HAVE MOVED OFF THAT WIND PRONE AREA WITH
A GUST TO 56 MPH REPORTED AT THE CODY AIRPORT. FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WARNING. HOWEVER...WINDS WILL BE RATHER GUSTY
ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TODAY. AT THIS TIME...NO FURTHER HIGH WIND
WARNINGS ARE ANTICIPATED. THE MAV MOS AT ROCK SPRINGS DOES HAVE HIGH
WIND CRITERIA...BUT THIS IS USUALLY OVERDONE.  FOR NOW...WE WILL
CONTINUE THE SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT BUT THIS WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED...ESPECIALLY FOR ZONE 30. THE WIND SHOULD DECREASE TONIGHT
AS THE SUPPORTING JET STREAK MOVES AWAY AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
LESSENS. GUSTY BREEZES WILL CONTINUE FROM TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT ALTHOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS TODAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

MEDIUM RANGE STARTS OUT WITH A FLAT RIDGE AXIS JUST TO OUR WEST
WHILE A COLD TROUGH MOVES SSEWD INTO SRN B.C. MILD AIR AHEAD OF THIS
WILL LIKELY LEAD TO RATHER MILD LATE NOVEMBER DAY ACROSS MUCH OF THE
AREA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THERE WILL BE 50S IN MANY
AREAS. WINDS MAY ALSO BE A SIGNIFICANT FACTOR...ESPECIALLY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AS STRONG WLY FLOW
COMBINES WITH A STRENGTHENING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A STRONG LOW
FORMS OVER MONTANA. THE COLD TROUGH TO THE NW HAS ITS ORIGINS AROUND
THE NORTH POLE AND WILL LIKELY CONTAIN QUITE A BIT OF COLD AIR.
RIGHT NOW THE MODELS ARE KEEPING THE MAJORITY OF THE ENERGY TO THE
NORTH BUT DO HAVE AT LEAST A SHALLOW...COLD AIRMASS TRYING TO SETTLE
IN EAST OF THE DIVIDE OVER THE WEEKEND. THE EURO IS COLDER
AGAIN...FASTER AND FURTHER SOUTH WITH THE COLD AIR PUSH BRINGING THE
COLD AIR INTO THE NORTH QUICKLY SATURDAY MORNING AND TO ALL AREAS
EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS IS NOT AS COLD
AND HINTS AT KEEPING THE FRONT JUST NORTH OF THE CENTRAL ZONES.
WILL KEEP THE CENTRAL ZONES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SATURDAY WITH
SOME COOLING ON SUNDAY. THE FAR NRN ZONES MAY BE QUITE CHILLY WITH
THIS SYSTEM BUT WITH LIMITED FORCING AND THUS NOT MUCH SNOW FOR
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. IN THE WEST AND NRN MOUNTAINS...A MOIST WLY
FLOW WILL LIKELY LEAD TO SOME LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOW AT TIMES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME OVERRUNNING EAST OF
THE DIVIDE IF THE LOW LEVEL COLD AIR BECOMES ENTRENCHED. EARLY
NEXT WEEK...WE GET A NEW SYSTEM MOVING ONTO THE WEST COAST THAT IS
FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS US ON TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM IS THE ONE NEAR
KAMCHATKA RIGHT NOW AND EVENTUALLY THERE IS A SPLIT WITH THE SRN
PIECE COMING ON THE CA/OR COAST WITH THE NRN PIECE PROVIDING SOME
COLDER AIR AS IT MOVES INLAND. LOT OF DETAIL ISSUES THIS FOR OUT
SO CONFIDENCE ON TIMING AND PCPN POTENTIAL IS LOW RIGHT NOW. WILL
KEEP MOST OF THE SNOW POTENTIAL CONFINED TO THE WEST A LITTLE IN
SOUTH FOR NOW AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH. LATER SHIFTS CAN WATCH
THIS EVOLUTION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE
ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS TODAY. A GUSTY WIND
WILL  OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR TODAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE
NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS AS WELL AS THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. EXPECT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER
00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW.
THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z WED.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 12Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS FROM 18Z
UNTIL 03Z. MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST
THROUGH THE PERIOD. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE
DETAILS. EXPECT A STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TODAY AND
TONIGHT.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TODAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. SNOW SHOWERS WILL DRIFT
OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY.  HIGH PRESSURE AND
DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS ON
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-013-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING UNTIL 11 AM MST THIS MORNING WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 250512
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (ISSUED AT 406 PM MST)

A CLOCKWISE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP AND
OVER THE FLAT RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO WYOMING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ONTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DRAGS THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WARNING AMOUNTS
IN THE TETONS AS THIS NW FLOW IS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR
THOSE MTNS. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SINCE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 7K. VALLEY
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK INTO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW FLOW
AND THE VORT MAX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WENT
WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORN MTNS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AS
WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE HILITED AREAS SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL TAKE
PLACE AND WHEN THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT DRAWING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP GET THE INITIAL
STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL UNDERWAY IN THE BIG HORN MTNS INITIALLY. Q G
FORCING WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL FOR THE HILITED AREAS,
THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.

AS FOR WIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE CODY FOOTHILLS...SPECIFICALLY
CLARK...WILL SEE A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING BASED ON A 14C H7
TEMP SPREAD BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS INITIATING GAP
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE JET STREAM WILL BISECT THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PLACE THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET OVER
NORTHERN WY SURFACING THE H7 55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG MTN WAVE SIGNATURE HOWEVER. CROSS
SECTIONS HAVE 50 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE NEAR CLARK.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR STRONG SUB WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM RKS
TO CPR FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 55 KNOT H7 WINDS...RIGHT FRONT QUAD
DYNAMICS...6 DECAMETER H7 HEIGHT LINES SPACED APART EVERY 3
DECAMATERS ACROSS WY AS WELL AS 31 KNOT WINDS ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR
RKS. EXPECTING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS TUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. JET
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WESTERN RIDGE. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
IN THE NORTHWEST AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BEST SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING LOCALES. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DRY THEN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS FLAT RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING
ARE LIKELY TO BE 0C TO +2C. FULL MIXING WOULD PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F. HAVE AT LEAST NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TEMPERING THAT AMOUNT OF WARMING.
CAVEAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MID- UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW. MUCH THE SAME STORY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AS WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHERE
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WIND IS LIKELY. MOIST FLOW REACHES THE FAR
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
BEFORE 00Z/SAT. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN IN THE JACKSON
AND STAR VALLEYS. DYNAMIC COOLING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE DIVIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WITH POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
BY 00Z/SUN. BEST AREAS FOR NOW WILL BE THE TETONS...TOGWOTEE...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT IF AT ALL. UPPER FLOW
PARALLELS THIS FRONT AND MAY HINDER ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ELONGATED
EAST-TO-WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...COULD
EASILY IMAGINE THAT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE COULD BE
WARMER THAN ADVERTISED AND FORECAST BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME
WARMING ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS. A GUSTY WIND
WILL OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 06Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT A
STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 250512
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1012 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT (ISSUED AT 406 PM MST)

A CLOCKWISE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP AND
OVER THE FLAT RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO WYOMING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ONTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DRAGS THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WARNING AMOUNTS
IN THE TETONS AS THIS NW FLOW IS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR
THOSE MTNS. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SINCE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 7K. VALLEY
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK INTO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW FLOW
AND THE VORT MAX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. WENT
WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORN MTNS DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME AS
WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE HILITED AREAS SHOULD TAKE
PLACE TONIGHT WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE DENDRITIC GROWTH WILL TAKE
PLACE AND WHEN THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE OVERHEAD TONIGHT DRAWING
IN MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ISENTROPIC LIFT WILL HELP GET THE INITIAL
STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL UNDERWAY IN THE BIG HORN MTNS INITIALLY. Q G
FORCING WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE SNOWFALL FOR THE HILITED AREAS,
THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS THAT IT WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.

AS FOR WIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE CODY FOOTHILLS...SPECIFICALLY
CLARK...WILL SEE A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING BASED ON A 14C H7
TEMP SPREAD BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS INITIATING GAP
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE JET STREAM WILL BISECT THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PLACE THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET OVER
NORTHERN WY SURFACING THE H7 55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG MTN WAVE SIGNATURE HOWEVER. CROSS
SECTIONS HAVE 50 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE NEAR CLARK.
UPGRADED THE HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FOR
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENT FOR STRONG SUB WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM RKS
TO CPR FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 55 KNOT H7 WINDS...RIGHT FRONT QUAD
DYNAMICS...6 DECAMETER H7 HEIGHT LINES SPACED APART EVERY 3
DECAMATERS ACROSS WY AS WELL AS 31 KNOT WINDS ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR
RKS. EXPECTING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS TUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. JET
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WESTERN RIDGE. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
IN THE NORTHWEST AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BEST SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING LOCALES. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DRY THEN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS FLAT RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING
ARE LIKELY TO BE 0C TO +2C. FULL MIXING WOULD PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F. HAVE AT LEAST NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TEMPERING THAT AMOUNT OF WARMING.
CAVEAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MID- UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW. MUCH THE SAME STORY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AS WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHERE
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WIND IS LIKELY. MOIST FLOW REACHES THE FAR
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
BEFORE 00Z/SAT. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN IN THE JACKSON
AND STAR VALLEYS. DYNAMIC COOLING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE DIVIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WITH POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
BY 00Z/SUN. BEST AREAS FOR NOW WILL BE THE TETONS...TOGWOTEE...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT IF AT ALL. UPPER FLOW
PARALLELS THIS FRONT AND MAY HINDER ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ELONGATED
EAST-TO-WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...COULD
EASILY IMAGINE THAT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE COULD BE
WARMER THAN ADVERTISED AND FORECAST BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME
WARMING ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z WED. STRONG WINDS ALOFT OVER
THE AREA THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. THIS WILL CREATE SOME MOUNTAIN
WAVE ACTIVITY EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS AND AREAS OF LLWS. A GUSTY WIND
WILL OCCUR AT KCOD AND KCPR OVERNIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT IN THE NORTHERN BIGHORN MOUNTAINS AND THE
ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS...CONTINUING THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING. EXPECT
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTH AFTER 00Z WILL SEE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
DEVELOP ALONG WITH SOME LIGHT SNOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL SPREAD
SOUTHWARD TOWARD KCPR AIRPORT BY 05Z.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH 06Z WED. MOUNTAIN SNOW
WILL OCCUR WITH SNOW IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS THROUGH 18Z. THEN RAIN
OR A MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW WILL OCCUR IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS. MVFR TO
IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE COMMON OVER THE WEST THROUGH THE PERIOD.
PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL SITES FOR MORE DETAILS. EXPECT A
STRONG GUSTY WIND AT KRKS AIRPORT TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS
ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 242306
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A CLOCKWISE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP AND
OVER THE FLAT RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO WYOMING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ONTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DRAGS THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WARNING AMOUNTS
IN THE TETONS AS THIS NW FLOW IS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR
THOSE MTNS. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SINCE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 7K. VALLEY
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK INTO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW
FLOW AND THE AS CT VORT MAX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WENT WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORN MTNS DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE HILITED
AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE DENTRITIC
GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE AND WHEN THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL HELP GET THE INITIAL STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL UNDERWAY IN THE
BIG HORN MTNS INITIALLY. Q G FORCING WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HILITED AREAS, THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS THAT IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.

AS FOR WIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE CODY FOOTHILLS...SPECIFICALLY
CLARK...WILL SEE A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING BASED ON A 14C H7
TEMP SPREAD BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS INITIATING GAP
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE JET STREAM WILL BISECT THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PLACE THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET OVER
NORTHERN WY SURFACING THE H7 55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG MTN WAVE SIGNATURE HOWEVER. CROSS SECTIONS
HAVE 50 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE NEAR CLARK. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR STRONG SUB WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM RKS TO CPR
FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 55 KNOT H7 WINDS...RIGHT FRONT QUAD
DYNAMICS...6 DECAMETER H7 HEIGHT LINES SPACED APART EVERY 3
DECAMATERS ACROSS WY AS WELL AS 31 KNOT WINDS ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR
RKS. EXPECTING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS TUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. JET
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WESTERN RIDGE. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
IN THE NORTHWEST AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BEST SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING LOCALES. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DRY THEN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS FLAT RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING
ARE LIKELY TO BE 0C TO +2C. FULL MIXING WOULD PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F. HAVE AT LEAST NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TEMPERING THAT AMOUNT OF WARMING.
CAVEAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MID- UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW. MUCH THE SAME STORY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AS WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHERE
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WIND IS LIKELY. MOIST FLOW REACHES THE FAR
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
BEFORE 00Z/SAT. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN IN THE JACKSON
AND STAR VALLEYS. DYNAMIC COOLING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE DIVIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WITH POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
BY 00Z/SUN. BEST AREAS FOR NOW WILL BE THE TETONS...TOGWOTEE...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT IF AT ALL. UPPER FLOW
PARALLELS THIS FRONT AND MAY HINDER ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ELONGATED
EAST-TO-WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...COULD
EASILY IMAGINE THAT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE COULD BE
WARMER THAN ADVERTISED AND FORECAST BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME
WARMING ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
THERE WILL BE SOME GENERAL DECREASE IN THE WIND THROUGH 03Z TUE
AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY
ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY KCOD- KDUB 3Z- 12Z TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE BIG HORN MTNS.
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RED DESERT TO KCPR TUE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING SNOWFALL VCNTY AND
NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE FROM 08Z THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD. SNOW WILL TURN TO RAIN IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
INCLUDING KAFO AND KJAC. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 NOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN SWEETWATER COUNTY
INCLUDING THE VCNTY OF KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KRIW 242306
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
A CLOCKWISE FLOW OF SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE WILL FLOW UP AND
OVER THE FLAT RIDGE OFF THE PACIFIC COAST INTO WYOMING LATER
TONIGHT THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY AS A TROUGH MAKING LANDFALL ONTO THE
BRITISH COLUMBIA COAST DRAGS THE MOISTURE INTO THE AREA. MAINLY
ADVISORY AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED BUT DECIDED TO KEEP WARNING AMOUNTS
IN THE TETONS AS THIS NW FLOW IS A FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR
THOSE MTNS. DECIDED NOT TO ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR
THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SINCE THE SNOW IS EXPECTED TO TURN TO RAIN BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON WITH SNOW LEVELS EXPECTED TO LIFT TO 7K. VALLEY
RAIN SHOULD TURN BACK INTO SNOW TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS IS ALSO A
FAVORABLE FLOW PATTERN FOR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAINS GIVEN THE NW
FLOW AND THE AS CT VORT MAX TRACKING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WENT WITH AN ADVISORY FOR THE BIG HORN MTNS DURING THE
SAME TIME FRAME AS WELL. SOME OF THE HEAVIEST SNOW IN THE HILITED
AREAS SHOULD TAKE PLACE TONIGHT WHEN THE MOST FAVORABLE DENTRITIC
GROWTH WILL TAKE PLACE AND WHEN THE JET STREAM WHICH WILL BE
OVERHEAD TONIGHT DRAWING IN MOISTURE FROM THE NW. ISENTROPIC LIFT
WILL HELP GET THE INITIAL STEADY LIGHT SNOWFALL UNDERWAY IN THE
BIG HORN MTNS INITIALLY. Q G FORCING WILL ALSO HELP ENHANCE THE
SNOWFALL FOR THE HILITED AREAS, THIS EVENT STILL APPEARS THAT IT
WILL PERSIST THROUGH 12Z WED.

AS FOR WIND...IT APPEARS THAT THE CODY FOOTHILLS...SPECIFICALLY
CLARK...WILL SEE A LOW END HIGH WIND WARNING BASED ON A 14C H7
TEMP SPREAD BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS INITIATING GAP
FLOW. IN ADDITION...THE JET STREAM WILL BISECT THE CWA FROM SW TO
NE TONIGHT WHICH WILL PLACE THE RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET OVER
NORTHERN WY SURFACING THE H7 55 KNOT WINDS TO THE SURFACE. THERE
DOES NOT APPEAR TO BE A STRONG MTN WAVE SIGNATURE HOWEVER. CROSS SECTIONS
HAVE 50 KNOT WINDS CLOSE TO THE SURFACE NEAR CLARK. UPGRADED THE
HIGH WIND WATCH TO A WARNING FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FOR LATE
TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING. WILL BE ISSUING A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
FOR STRONG SUB WARNING CRITERIA WINDS ANTICIPATED FROM RKS TO CPR
FOR TUESDAY GIVEN THE 55 KNOT H7 WINDS...RIGHT FRONT QUAD
DYNAMICS...6 DECAMETER H7 HEIGHT LINES SPACED APART EVERY 3
DECAMATERS ACROSS WY AS WELL AS 31 KNOT WINDS ON MOS GUIDANCE FOR
RKS. EXPECTING 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS WITH GUSTS TO 50 MPH ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR TUE.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ABOVE FREEZING IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS TUE WITH
HIGHS IN THE LOW 40S EAST.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
GLOBAL FORECAST MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THE THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PERSISTS
WEDNESDAY AS RIDGE PUSHES INLAND AND INTO THE GREAT BASIN. JET
ENERGY AND MOISTURE LIFTS SLOWLY NORTHEAST WEDNESDAY AS HEIGHTS
BUILD IN ASSOCIATION WITH WESTERN RIDGE. SNOW WILL LINGER LONGEST
IN THE NORTHWEST AND THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. BEST SUNSHINE AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES ARE MOST LIKELY OVER THE SOUTHWEST.
ALSO...GUSTY SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL AID WARMING ACROSS SWEETWATER
COUNTY AND SURROUNDING LOCALES. CONDITIONS ARE MAINLY DRY THEN
FROM WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING AS FLAT RIDGE
TRAVERSES THE FORECAST AREA. 700MB TEMPERATURES ON THANKSGIVING
ARE LIKELY TO BE 0C TO +2C. FULL MIXING WOULD PUT HIGH
TEMPERATURES AROUND 60F. HAVE AT LEAST NUDGED IN THAT DIRECTION
BUT MOST MODEL GUIDANCE IS TEMPERING THAT AMOUNT OF WARMING.
CAVEAT AT THIS TIME OF YEAR WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF MID- UPPER LEVEL
CLOUD COVER. BOTH MODELS SHOW A BIT OF A BREAK IN THE CLOUD COVER
THANKSGIVING AFTERNOON...BUT TIMING IS DIFFICULT WITHIN THE
PROGRESSIVE WESTERLY FLOW. MUCH THE SAME STORY EXPECTED FOR FRIDAY
AS WESTERLY FLOW STRENGTHENS AND TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO
WARM...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. WARMEST HIGH
TEMPERATURES ON FRIDAY WILL BE IN EASTERN FOOTHILL LOCATIONS WHERE
INCREASING DOWNSLOPE WIND IS LIKELY. MOIST FLOW REACHES THE FAR
WEST FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING
BEFORE 00Z/SAT. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FAVOR RAIN IN THE JACKSON
AND STAR VALLEYS. DYNAMIC COOLING COUPLED WITH GRADUALLY COOLING
700MB TEMPERATURES WILL ALLOW RAIN TO CHANGE OVER TO SNOW EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING. SNOW WILL BE MORE WIDESPREAD WEST OF THE DIVIDE
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY AS WITH POTENTIAL HIGHLIGHT SNOW AMOUNTS
BY 00Z/SUN. BEST AREAS FOR NOW WILL BE THE TETONS...TOGWOTEE...AND
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF SOUTHERN YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK.
EARLIER MODEL RUNS WERE TRYING TO DRIVE A COLD FRONT SOUTH ON
SATURDAY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. APPEARS THIS FEATURE WILL
NOT PUSH THROUGH UNTIL SATURDAY NIGHT IF AT ALL. UPPER FLOW
PARALLELS THIS FRONT AND MAY HINDER ITS SOUTHWARD PROGRESSION.
ALSO...SHORTWAVE ENERGY ACROSS SOUTHERN CANADA BECOMES ELONGATED
EAST-TO-WEST AND SHOWS LITTLE PUSH TO THE SOUTH. THEREFORE...COULD
EASILY IMAGINE THAT TEMPERATURES EAST OF THE DIVIDE COULD BE
WARMER THAN ADVERTISED AND FORECAST BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. SOME
WARMING ON MONDAY AS SOUTHWEST FLOW INCREASES AHEAD OF THE NEXT
WEATHER SYSTEM PUSHING INTO CALIFORNIA AND THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
THERE WILL BE SOME GENERAL DECREASE IN THE WIND THROUGH 03Z TUE
AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE
EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY
ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY KCOD- KDUB 3Z- 12Z TUESDAY.
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP LATER TONIGHT OVER THE BIG HORN MTNS.
WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 KNOTS WITH GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS
ARE EXPECTED FROM THE RED DESERT TO KCPR TUE.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING SNOWFALL VCNTY AND
NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE FROM 08Z THROUGH TUESDAY EVENING WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD. SNOW WILL TURN TO RAIN IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
INCLUDING KAFO AND KJAC. WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS OF 25 TO 35 NOTS WITH
GUSTS TO 40 TO 45 KNOTS ARE EXPECTED IN SWEETWATER COUNTY
INCLUDING THE VCNTY OF KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN SNOW AND STRONG WIND FOR MOST
MOUNTAIN RANGES THROUGH TUESDAY. THESE CONDITIONS WILL KEEP FIRE
WEATHER IMPACTS TO A MINIMUM. THE SAME LOW IMPACT APPLIES TO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF WEST CENTRAL WYOMING...ALTHOUGH GUSTY SURFACE
WIND REMAINS POSSIBLE THROUGH TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS
MAY DRIFT OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN OR FOOTHILLS DURING THIS TIME. HIGH
PRESSURE AND DRIER/WARMER WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED FOR FIRE DISTRICTS
ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ001-002-008-009-014-024.

WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 2 AM TUESDAY TO 5 AM MST WEDNESDAY
WYZ012.

HIGH WIND WARNING FROM 11 PM THIS EVENING TO 11 AM MST TUESDAY
WYZ003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 241952
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1255 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING FOR THE NW MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TIME HEIGHTS IN THE NW. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TEMPERATURES DO GET A LITTLE WARM WITH TIME BUT IT`S HARD TO
IGNORE THE 30-50KT MTN TOP FLOW AND STEADY PCPN FOR 24 HOURS OR
MORE. WILL KEY IN ON THE FAVORED WNW FLOW AREAS WITH OTHER AREAS
LIKELY NEEDING ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE STAR VALLEY. UPDATE
GOING OUT ASAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WEATHER SYSTEM.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE
08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED
BY 12Z ALONG WITH MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WYZ012-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 241952
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1255 PM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING FOR THE NW MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TIME HEIGHTS IN THE NW. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TEMPERATURES DO GET A LITTLE WARM WITH TIME BUT IT`S HARD TO
IGNORE THE 30-50KT MTN TOP FLOW AND STEADY PCPN FOR 24 HOURS OR
MORE. WILL KEY IN ON THE FAVORED WNW FLOW AREAS WITH OTHER AREAS
LIKELY NEEDING ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE STAR VALLEY. UPDATE
GOING OUT ASAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WEATHER SYSTEM.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THIS MORNINGS WEATHER SYSTEM
WITH OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TO CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW
THE SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL
BRING INCREASING SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE
08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED
BY 12Z ALONG WITH MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WYZ012-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS











000
FXUS65 KRIW 241251
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
551 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING FOR THE NW MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TIME HEIGHTS IN THE NW. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TEMPERATURES DO GET A LITTLE WARM WITH TIME BUT IT`S HARD TO
IGNORE THE 30-50KT MTN TOP FLOW AND STEADY PCPN FOR 24 HOURS OR
MORE. WILL KEY IN ON THE FAVORED WNW FLOW AREAS WITH OTHER AREAS
LIKELY NEEDING ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE STAR VALLEY. UPDATE
GOING OUT ASAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WYZ012-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 241251
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
551 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.UPDATE...
CONTINUES TO LOOK VERY INTERESTING FOR THE NW MOUNTAINS AND
SURROUNDING AREA FOR HEAVY SNOW BEGINNING LATER TONIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. STRONG ISENTROPIC UPGLIDE PATTERN IS PRODUCING SOME
PRETTY IMPRESSIVE TIME HEIGHTS IN THE NW. DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
TEMPERATURES DO GET A LITTLE WARM WITH TIME BUT IT`S HARD TO
IGNORE THE 30-50KT MTN TOP FLOW AND STEADY PCPN FOR 24 HOURS OR
MORE. WILL KEY IN ON THE FAVORED WNW FLOW AREAS WITH OTHER AREAS
LIKELY NEEDING ADVISORIES WITH THE AFTERNOON PACKAGE. THERE WILL
BE POTENTIAL FOR A CHANGEOVER TO RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW BY LATE
TUESDAY OR TUESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE STAR VALLEY. UPDATE
GOING OUT ASAP.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH LATE TUESDAY NIGHT
WYZ012-013.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 241007
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 241007
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS











000
FXUS65 KRIW 241007
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS










000
FXUS65 KRIW 241007
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
307 AM MST MON NOV 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

WITH THE DIFFERENCES IN THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA...ONE AGAIN WE
WILL SPLIT THINGS UP WITH THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AS THE SPLIT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...YET ANOTHER IN THE SERIES OF SHORTWAVES
CONTINUES TO MOVE THROUGH THE STATE. A DECENT BAND OF SNOW HAS
DEVELOPED IN IDAHO AND IS NOW DROPPING SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE WEST. IT
COULD BRING A QUICK INCH OR TWO TO SOME LOCATIONS. THE GOOD NEWS IS
THAT IT IS MOVING SOUTH AT A DECENT CLIP AT THIS TIME SO IT SHOULD
MOVE THROUGH FAIRLY QUICKLY. THE SNOW SHOULD TAPER OFF FAIRLY
QUICKLY TOWARD MORNING THOUGH. TODAY WILL BE A PERIOD IN BETWEEN
SYSTEMS SO HEAVY SNOW IS NOT EXPECTED. HOWEVER...WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
CONTINUING THERE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
THE DAY. THE NEXT SYSTEM...THIS ONE WITH A LITTLE MORE PUNCH WILL
MOVE TOWARD THE AREA TONIGHT. THE MODELS STILL HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES
IN TIMING WITH THE NAM A BIT SLOWER THAN THE OTHER MODELS. FOR
NOW...WE STARTED WITH LOW POPS AND RAMPED THEM UP THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND INTO TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM DOES HAVE SOME DECENT LIFT WITH SOME
WARM ADVECTION AS WELL. SOME HIGHLIGHTS ARE ANTICIPATED WITH THIS
SYSTEM. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE BEEN OVERDOING THE QPF WITH THESE
SHORTWAVES THE PAST WEEK OR SO. SO ALTHOUGH WE DID INCREASE SNOWFALL
AMOUNTS...WE KEPT THEM BELOW WARNING CRITERIA. SOME ADVISORIES WILL
PROBABLY BE NEEDED TO BE ISSUED LATER TODAY HOWEVER. THIS SNOW WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AS WELL. CONDITIONS SHOULD BEGIN TO
IMPROVE WEDNESDAY MORNING AS THE SYSTEM MOVES AWAY AND RIDGING
BEGINS TO BUILD ACROSS WYOMING. THE MODELS HAVE BEGUN TO COME INTO
BETTER AGREEMENT WITH RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ACROSS THE STATE
LATER WEDNESDAY AND INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AS A RESULT...WE HAVE
TRIMMED POPS FOR LATER WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE
RECENT DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS...WE DID NOT REMOVE THEM YET AND
WOULD PREFER TO WAIT ANOTHER RUN OR TWO TO DRY THINGS OUT
COMPLETELY.

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE RADAR IS SHOWING SOME ECHOES ACROSS THE
AREA. HOWEVER...ALL OF THIS ACTIVITY HAS NOT REACHED THE GROUND YET
WITH THE DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE. WITH THE SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH
THE AREA...EXPECT ANOTHER BREEZY TO WINDY DAY FOR MANY AREAS. OF
PARTICULAR CONCERN ARE AREAS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE 700
MILLIBAR WINDS ARE APPROACHING 50 TO 55 KNOTS LATE TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...AT THIS TIME WE DO NOT THINK WINDS THIS STRONG WILL MIX TO
THE SURFACE. THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 50 MPH HOWEVER. WINDS
SHOULD GRADUALLY DECREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AS WINDS ALOFT RELAX
A BIT. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
SHOW SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OCCURRING FROM THE EASTERN BIG HORN
BASIN DOWN THROUGH EASTERN FREMONT AND EASTERN SWEETWATER COUNTIES
AND EASTWARD. FURTHER WEST...WITH DOWNSLOPING FLOW MOST AREAS SHOULD
STAY DRY. PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS STILL LOOK FAIRLY LIGHT THOUGH. THE
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A COUPLE OF INCHES HOWEVER.

FOR TONIGHT...ATTENTION TURNS TOWARD THE CHANCE OF HIGH WINDS ACROSS
FAVORED AREAS IN THE ABSAROKAS AND CODY FOOTHILLS...INCLUDING THE
CROSSROADS OF AMERICA...CLARK. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO
INCREASE TO 60 TO 65 KNOTS BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. IN
ADDITION...BY EARLY TUESDAY MORNING THE AREA WILL BE IN THE FAVORED
RIGHT FRONT QUAD OF THE JET TO PROVIDE SOME DOWNWARD FORCING. SO AS
A RESULT WE WILL CONTINUE THE HIGH WIND WATCH. THE NEXT QUESTION IS
HOW MUCH PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT OVER THE DIVIDE FOR TUESDAY AND
TUESDAY NIGHT.  THE MODELS ARE IN FAR AGREEMENT IN THE AREA BEING
MAINLY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN...ESPECIALLY IN THE
EAST AND TO THE EAST AS WELL AS NORTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE. WITH
THE FAVORED NORTHWEST FLOW...THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS COULD DO
PARTICULARLY WELL WITH THIS SETUP. HOWEVER...EVEN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS COULD SEE A FEW INCHES OF SNOW. THERE IS STILL SOME
DISAGREEMENT IN THE DETAILS HOWEVER. THE NEXT CONCERN IS FOR WIND.
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW SOME VERY STRONG WINDS ALOFT WITH 50 TO
60 KNOTS AT 700 MILLIBARS ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...ONE
NEGATIVE IS THAT CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO LIMIT MIXING...ESPECIALLY
WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS EXPECTED AT NIGHT. THE EXCEPTION ONCE AGAIN
MAY BE AREAS NEAR CLARK...BUT WE WILL CROSS THAT BRIDGE TOMORROW.
CONDITIONS SHOULD ONCE AGAIN IMPROVE ON WEDNESDAY AS THE SYSTEM
LIFTS OUT. AND...LIKE WHAT WAS STATED IN WEST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD RIDGING FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AND MAINLY DRY BUT WINDY CONDITIONS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

GFS SEEMS TO BE ON A WINNING STREAK THE PAST FEW SYSTEMS WITH BOTH
THE ECMWF...GEM AND ECMWF ENSEMBLES NOW FOLLOWING THE GFS LEAD WITH
OUR THANKSGIVING WEEKEND WEATHER SYSTEMS. A DRAMATIC TURN FROM LAST
NIGHT WHEN THE GFS WAS AN OUTLIER. END RESULT IS A MUCH MILDER
THURSDAY/FRIDAY BEFORE WE FINALLY GET A COLD FRONT FROM THE NORTH
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. SHOULD GET SOME DECENT SNOW ACROSS THE
WEST IN THE MOIST...SAGGING WLY FLOW FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. HOW MUCH
IF ANY WE GET EAST OF THE DIVIDE IS STILL UNCERTAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE WAY THE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED THE PAST FEW DAYS.
ALTHOUGH...THEY HAVE GENERALLY BEEN PICKING UP ON THIS FRIDAY NIGHT/
SATURDAY SYSTEM FOR A WHILE IT WAS JUST THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE ON
THANKSGIVING THAT THEY`VE BEEN STRUGGLING WITH. IT NOW APPEARS THIS
WAVE WILL WEAKEN IN THE CONFLUENT FLOW AND INFLUENCE OF WARM AIR
BEING PUMPED UP AHEAD OF THE NEW ERN PACIFIC UPPER LOW. SO BOTTOM
LINE...IT LOOKS LIKE A NICE THANKSGIVING DAY NOW WITH SNOW MOVING
INTO THE WRN MOUNTAINS MAINLY LATER FRIDAY OR FRIDAY EVENING...
CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY. VALLEYS COULD BE RAIN OR RAIN AND SNOW
MIX INITIALLY...ESPECIALLY THE STAR VALLEY WITH H7 TEMPERATURES
STARTING AS WARM AS -1C AT H7 ONLY NOT COOLING SIGNIFICANTLY UNTIL
FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY. WINDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE
THANKSGIVING DAY INTO FRIDAY WITH POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGH WINDS BY
FRIDAY IN THE WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS. MAYBE AS EARLY AS
THURSDAY NIGHT IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS. COLDER EAST OF THE DIVIDE
SATURDAY WITH SHORTWAVE PASSING OFF TO THE EAST BUT PUSHING A
DECENT SURFACE HIGH AND ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT SWD INTO AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE. ON SUNDAY...HEIGHTS START TO BUILD AS STRONG
PACIFIC SYSTEM STARTS TO MOVE ONTO THE WEST COAST WITH WARMING MID
LEVEL TEMPERATURES AND POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT MOUNTAIN SNOW OUT WEST.
SNOW WILL LIKELY BE ON THE INCREASE MONDAY AS TROUGH MOVES INTO
THE GREAT BASIN AND INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST. EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WE`LL HAVE TO WATCH THIS EVOLUTION CLOSELY COLD AIR WILL
BE LURKING JUST TO THE NORTH AND SURFACE LOW MAY DEVELOP OVER SRN
WYO OR NRN CO AT THE END OF THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH SE
ACROSS WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING SPREADING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW AND
FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ACROSS THE BIGHORN RANGE WITH LOCAL AREAS OF
MVFR -SN MAINLY VCNTY AND EAST OF A KCOD-KWRL-KCPR LINE THROUGH
15Z.  DRIER AIR WILL PUSH NW-SE BEHIND THIS SYSTEM 15Z-18Z MONDAY.
GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MID-AFTN...ESPECIALLY VCNTY
KDUB-KRIW AND EAST OF THE BIGHORN RANGE.  THERE WILL BE SOME
DECREASE IN THE WIND 21Z MON-03Z TUE AND THEN RIDGE TOP WEST WINDS
WILL INCREASE TO 40-50KTS ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE WITH
MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTIVITY LIKELY ALONG WITH AREAS OF LLWS VCNTY
KCOD-KDUB 3Z-12Z TUESDAY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES
A FAST-MOVING UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CONTINUE TO DIVE SE ALONG
THE DIVIDE EARLY THIS MORNING WITH AREAS OF MVFR/IFR -SN AND
WIDESPREAD MTN OBSCURATIONS SHIFTING INTO SW WY THROUGH 15Z.  DRIER
AIR WILL PUSH INTO THE NW BEHIND THE SYSTEM EARLY THIS MORNING WITH
OVERALL IMPROVING CONDITIONS...THOUGH GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO
CAUSE OCNL MVFR VSBY VCNTY KJAC.  MOST OF THE MVFR/IFR -SN WILL EXIT
SW WY BY 15Z.  GUSTY NW SFC WINDS WILL FOLLOW THE SYSTEM THROUGH
MONDAY AFTN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
INTERSTATE 80 CORRIDOR.  A MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BRING INCREASING
SNOWFALL VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KPNA-KEMM LINE 08Z-12Z TUESDAY WITH
WIDESPREAD MVFR -SN...AREAS OF IFR -SN EXPECTED BY 12Z ALONG WITH
MTNS MOSTLY OBSCD.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN OVER WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.
A FAST MOVING PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH IN THE FLOW WILL SWEEP
THROUGH THE AREA THIS MORNING. THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS
WILL SEE SOME LIGHT SNOWFALL. SOME OF THE SNOW WILL MAKE IT TO THE
VALLEYS OF THE WEST. EAST OF THE DIVIDE LITTLE IF ANY SNOWFALL IS
EXPECTED BUT BRISK NORTHWEST WINDS WILL CONTINUE. THE SNOWFALL IN
THE WEST AND NORTH SHOULD TAPER OFF FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH
EARLY AFTERNOON. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE ELEVATED WITH GENERALLY
LOW MIXING HEIGHTS. WINDIER AREAS MAY SEE FAIR SMOKE DISPERSAL IN
THE AFTERNOON EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. ANOTHER MORE POTENT
SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE WEST STARTING LATER MONDAY NIGHT.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
HIGH WIND WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING
WYZ002-003.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS











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