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000
FXUS65 KRIW 111038
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
338 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN IS PROVING TO BE
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ENOUGH TO CREATE VERY STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS.
IN FACT MANY VALLEY HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
MID SLOPE LOW TEMPS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING WEATHER ELEMENT TO PIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BECAUSE OF THIS. IN ADDITION TO THE INVERSIONS...MANY AREAS AT THE
SAME ELEVATIONS HAVE QUITE A HIGH VARIABILITY OF SNOW COVER WHICH
ALSO HAS BEEN INFLUENCING TEMPS BELOW AND ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
FOR EXAMPLE...IN AREAS THAT ARE MIXED...CASPER HAS HAD HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S BUT AREAS JUST TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 30S AT AND WEST OF THE CPR ASOS DUE TO MORE
CONTINUOUS SNOW COVER JUST WEST OF CASPER. BELOW THE INVERSION...FARSON
HAS BEEN COLDER THAN BPI FOR THE SAME REASON WITH MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND AROUND FARSON. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THE STAR VALLEY AS THIS IS THE MOST PROTECTED LAND FEATURE IN THE
AREA THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE SALT LAKE SFC HIGH. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE
THE INVERSIONS WILL NOT REACH 60 TODAY LIKE THEY DID WED IN A
COUPLE OF AREAS BECAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT LOBES IN THE NW FLOW
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL COOL TEMPS OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT H7 BUT 50S WILL
STILL OCCUR IN MANY MIXED AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG WITH LOW
RH TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE 20S IN
THE STAR VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE VORT LOBE WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCEMENT OF LEE
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT INVERSIONS WILL HOLD.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW OUT AT 150W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEAR
DOWN ON THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS IN THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
SUCCESSFUL THIS TROUGH WILL BE AT MOWING DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
INSTEAD OF TOTALLY SPLITTING BUT SINCE EACH SOUTHEAST BOUND WEAK
VORT LOBE MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAR DOWN THE RIDGE...WE WILL
ASSUME THAT THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR WEST SAT/SAT NT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES A LITTLE WEST. WITH 8MB 3 HOURLY SFC
PRESSURE RISES INDICATED FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT
ASCT WITH THE VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS
IN THAT BASIN TO 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FOR SATURDAY NT.
THE NOSE OF THE COOLER H7 WINDS WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO JOHNSON
COUNTY SO THEIR WINDS COULD INCREASE NOTICEABLY AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPILL OVER DVD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN/SNOW
BANDING IS POSSIBLE OFF THE OWL CREEK/BRIDGER MTNS AND INTO
FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WITH UNSTABLE H7 NW FLOW SATURDAY NT.
INVERSIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND OUR SATURDAY SHORTWAVE AS LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS
HOLDS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WARM ADVECTION/UPGLIDE
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT
ANY PCPN COULD START MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAR WEST
VALLEYS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH ZONES. SIGNIFICANT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE BLOWING DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW...INCREASE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHORTWAVE DIVING SE AND
ADDED SUPPORT FROM JET ALOFT. HEIGHTS TRY AND REBUILD AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ONE GLANCING SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SOME INCREASED WIND. THE NEXT WEAKENING TROUGH...AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE...ARRIVES LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW FOR THE WEST AND A LITTLE FOR THE SOUTH
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY TO STRONG WIND. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED DAYS AS SHORTWAVES AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELP
BREAK THE INVERSIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE ON THE TEMP UPTREND SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOME COOLER/COLDER AIR ARRIVING IN THE WEST
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY THROUGH 17Z WITH MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

AFTER 00Z...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH 12Z
FRI. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM 00Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MANY AREAS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 111038
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
338 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN IS PROVING TO BE
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ENOUGH TO CREATE VERY STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS.
IN FACT MANY VALLEY HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
MID SLOPE LOW TEMPS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING WEATHER ELEMENT TO PIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BECAUSE OF THIS. IN ADDITION TO THE INVERSIONS...MANY AREAS AT THE
SAME ELEVATIONS HAVE QUITE A HIGH VARIABILITY OF SNOW COVER WHICH
ALSO HAS BEEN INFLUENCING TEMPS BELOW AND ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
FOR EXAMPLE...IN AREAS THAT ARE MIXED...CASPER HAS HAD HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S BUT AREAS JUST TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 30S AT AND WEST OF THE CPR ASOS DUE TO MORE
CONTINUOUS SNOW COVER JUST WEST OF CASPER. BELOW THE INVERSION...FARSON
HAS BEEN COLDER THAN BPI FOR THE SAME REASON WITH MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND AROUND FARSON. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THE STAR VALLEY AS THIS IS THE MOST PROTECTED LAND FEATURE IN THE
AREA THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE SALT LAKE SFC HIGH. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE
THE INVERSIONS WILL NOT REACH 60 TODAY LIKE THEY DID WED IN A
COUPLE OF AREAS BECAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT LOBES IN THE NW FLOW
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL COOL TEMPS OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT H7 BUT 50S WILL
STILL OCCUR IN MANY MIXED AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG WITH LOW
RH TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE 20S IN
THE STAR VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE VORT LOBE WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCEMENT OF LEE
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT INVERSIONS WILL HOLD.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW OUT AT 150W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEAR
DOWN ON THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS IN THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
SUCCESSFUL THIS TROUGH WILL BE AT MOWING DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
INSTEAD OF TOTALLY SPLITTING BUT SINCE EACH SOUTHEAST BOUND WEAK
VORT LOBE MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAR DOWN THE RIDGE...WE WILL
ASSUME THAT THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR WEST SAT/SAT NT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES A LITTLE WEST. WITH 8MB 3 HOURLY SFC
PRESSURE RISES INDICATED FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT
ASCT WITH THE VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS
IN THAT BASIN TO 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FOR SATURDAY NT.
THE NOSE OF THE COOLER H7 WINDS WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO JOHNSON
COUNTY SO THEIR WINDS COULD INCREASE NOTICEABLY AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPILL OVER DVD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN/SNOW
BANDING IS POSSIBLE OFF THE OWL CREEK/BRIDGER MTNS AND INTO
FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WITH UNSTABLE H7 NW FLOW SATURDAY NT.
INVERSIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND OUR SATURDAY SHORTWAVE AS LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS
HOLDS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WARM ADVECTION/UPGLIDE
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT
ANY PCPN COULD START MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAR WEST
VALLEYS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH ZONES. SIGNIFICANT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE BLOWING DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW...INCREASE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHORTWAVE DIVING SE AND
ADDED SUPPORT FROM JET ALOFT. HEIGHTS TRY AND REBUILD AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ONE GLANCING SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SOME INCREASED WIND. THE NEXT WEAKENING TROUGH...AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE...ARRIVES LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW FOR THE WEST AND A LITTLE FOR THE SOUTH
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY TO STRONG WIND. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED DAYS AS SHORTWAVES AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELP
BREAK THE INVERSIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE ON THE TEMP UPTREND SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOME COOLER/COLDER AIR ARRIVING IN THE WEST
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY THROUGH 17Z WITH MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

AFTER 00Z...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH 12Z
FRI. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM 00Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MANY AREAS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 111038
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
338 AM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE ONCE AGAIN IS PROVING TO BE
TEMPERATURES. THE STRONG RIDGE HAS BUILT INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST
ENOUGH TO CREATE VERY STRONG INVERSIONS IN THE VALLEYS AND BASINS.
IN FACT MANY VALLEY HIGH TEMPS HAVE BEEN AND WILL BE LOWER THAN THE
MID SLOPE LOW TEMPS. THE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE MOST
CHALLENGING WEATHER ELEMENT TO PIN DOWN FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS
BECAUSE OF THIS. IN ADDITION TO THE INVERSIONS...MANY AREAS AT THE
SAME ELEVATIONS HAVE QUITE A HIGH VARIABILITY OF SNOW COVER WHICH
ALSO HAS BEEN INFLUENCING TEMPS BELOW AND ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
FOR EXAMPLE...IN AREAS THAT ARE MIXED...CASPER HAS HAD HIGHS IN
THE LOW 50S BUT AREAS JUST TO THE WEST HAVE BEEN STRUGGLING TO
BREAK OUT OF THE 30S AT AND WEST OF THE CPR ASOS DUE TO MORE
CONTINUOUS SNOW COVER JUST WEST OF CASPER. BELOW THE INVERSION...FARSON
HAS BEEN COLDER THAN BPI FOR THE SAME REASON WITH MORE SNOW ON THE
GROUND AROUND FARSON. THE COLDEST TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE ALONG
THE STAR VALLEY AS THIS IS THE MOST PROTECTED LAND FEATURE IN THE
AREA THAT IS CLOSEST TO THE SALT LAKE SFC HIGH. HIGH TEMPS ABOVE
THE INVERSIONS WILL NOT REACH 60 TODAY LIKE THEY DID WED IN A
COUPLE OF AREAS BECAUSE A COUPLE OF WEAK VORT LOBES IN THE NW FLOW
ON THE FRONT SIDE OF THE STRONG RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN UNITED
STATES WILL COOL TEMPS OFF A COUPLE OF DEGREES AT H7 BUT 50S WILL
STILL OCCUR IN MANY MIXED AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG WITH LOW
RH TODAY AND FRIDAY. HIGHS WILL STRUGGLE TO GET ABOVE THE 20S IN
THE STAR VALLEY TODAY AND FRIDAY. THE VORT LOBE WE WILL EXPERIENCE
TODAY AND THE NEXT ONE ON FRIDAY WILL CREATE ENHANCEMENT OF LEE
ENHANCED CLOUDINESS WHICH WILL ENSURE THAT INVERSIONS WILL HOLD.
PATCHY FOG WILL LIKELY FORM AGAIN IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS LATE TONIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE NEXT SIGNIFICANT
PACIFIC TROUGH NOW OUT AT 150W OFF THE PACIFIC COAST WILL BEAR
DOWN ON THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT WITH LOWERING AND THICKENING
CLOUDS IN THE WEST. THERE IS STILL SOME QUESTION AS TO HOW
SUCCESSFUL THIS TROUGH WILL BE AT MOWING DOWN THE PERSISTENT RIDGE
INSTEAD OF TOTALLY SPLITTING BUT SINCE EACH SOUTHEAST BOUND WEAK
VORT LOBE MAY HAVE A TENDENCY TO WEAR DOWN THE RIDGE...WE WILL
ASSUME THAT THE EFFECTS OF THE TROUGH WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO
PRODUCE MEASURABLE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE FAR WEST SAT/SAT NT AS THE
RIDGE AXIS RETROGRADES A LITTLE WEST. WITH 8MB 3 HOURLY SFC
PRESSURE RISES INDICATED FOR THE WIND RIVER BASIN SATURDAY NIGHT
ASCT WITH THE VIGOROUS PACIFIC COLD FRONT...HAVE INCREASED WINDS
IN THAT BASIN TO 25 TO 35 WITH GUSTS TO 45 MPH FOR SATURDAY NT.
THE NOSE OF THE COOLER H7 WINDS WILL LIKELY DIVE INTO JOHNSON
COUNTY SO THEIR WINDS COULD INCREASE NOTICEABLY AS WELL. SOME
LIGHT PRECIP COULD SPILL OVER DVD BY SATURDAY NIGHT. RAIN/SNOW
BANDING IS POSSIBLE OFF THE OWL CREEK/BRIDGER MTNS AND INTO
FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WITH UNSTABLE H7 NW FLOW SATURDAY NT.
INVERSIONS WILL FINALLY ERODE SATURDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

MOIST NW FLOW BEHIND OUR SATURDAY SHORTWAVE AS LONGWAVE RIDGE AXIS
HOLDS TO THE WEST WILL LIKELY LEAD TO A WARM ADVECTION/UPGLIDE
PATTERN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. COULD SEE SOME SIGNIFICANT SNOW IN THE
FAR WEST SUNDAY INTO AT LEAST PART OF MONDAY. TEMPS WARM ENOUGH THAT
ANY PCPN COULD START MIXING WITH OR CHANGING TO RAIN IN THE FAR WEST
VALLEYS MONDAY...ESPECIALLY THE FURTHER SOUTH ZONES. SIGNIFICANT
WIND WILL LIKELY BE BLOWING DURING THIS TIME DUE TO THE FAST
FLOW...INCREASE SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT...SHORTWAVE DIVING SE AND
ADDED SUPPORT FROM JET ALOFT. HEIGHTS TRY AND REBUILD AROUND THE
MIDDLE OF THE WEEK WITH ONE GLANCING SHORTWAVE POSSIBLY AFFECTING
THE FAR NERN ZONES LATE TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST A FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND
SOME INCREASED WIND. THE NEXT WEAKENING TROUGH...AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN RIDGE...ARRIVES LATE WED NGT/THURSDAY WITH SOME LIGHT TO
POTENTIALLY MODERATE SNOW FOR THE WEST AND A LITTLE FOR THE SOUTH
WITH ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY TO STRONG WIND. SNOW WILL CONTINUE TO
MELT...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE LEADING TO A BETTER CHANCE OF
SOME MIXED DAYS AS SHORTWAVES AND INCREASED PRESSURE GRADIENT HELP
BREAK THE INVERSIONS. MOST AREAS WILL BE ON THE TEMP UPTREND SUNDAY
THROUGH MIDWEEK WITH SOME COOLER/COLDER AIR ARRIVING IN THE WEST
NEXT THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY THROUGH 17Z WITH MVFR TO
LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL OVER
THE REGION THROUGH 00Z.

AFTER 00Z...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY MOUNTAINS
WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION THROUGH 12Z
FRI. THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS FROM 00Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. THE NEXT POTENTIAL FOR MEASURABLE SNOW WILL BE
ACROSS FAR WESTERN WYOMING SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE IN MANY AREAS BY SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 110516
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1016 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MST)

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
17Z WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY
MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 110516
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1016 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MST)

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
17Z WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY
MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 110516
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1016 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 211 PM MST)

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

AREAS OF FOG AND LOW CLOUDS IN FAR WEST WY VALLEYS OVERNIGHT THROUGH
17Z WITH MVFR TO LIFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS
TO PREVAIL OVER THE REGION THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE NORTHERN WY
MOUNTAINS WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS AND SOME MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION.
THE REST OF THE REGION WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 102111
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE AREAS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH A GUSTY BREEZY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR.
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...FOG MAY REFORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 102111
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE AREAS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH A GUSTY BREEZY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR.
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...FOG MAY REFORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 102111
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

A COUPLE OF CONCERNS IN THE SHORT RANGE. THE FIRST IS FOR WIND. THE
USUAL SUSPECTS IN THE CODY FOOTHILLS...MAINLY AMERICA`S FAVORITE
CROSSROAD...AKA CLARK HAS REPORTED SOME WIND GUSTS AROUND 60 MPH.
HOWEVER...SO FAR THIS IS ONLY AT ONE SENSOR AND IMPACTS LOOK MINIMAL
SO WE WILL STICK WITH A SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT AND NOT ISSUE ANY
HIGHLIGHTS. 700 MILLIBAR WINDS CONTINUE TO NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH
FOR ANY WIDESPREAD HIGH WIND IN THAT AREA. GUSTY WINDS ARE ALSO
BLOWING THROUGH THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR BUT THESE NOTHING
UNUSUAL AND SHOULD REMAIN BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA. WINDS SHOULD
DECREASE TONIGHT WITH DECOUPLING OF THE ATMOSPHERE AND A WEAKENING
OF UPPER LEVEL WINDS. THE OTHER ISSUE IS SOME FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...IT IS STARTING TO LIFT BUT SHOULD RETURN LATER TONIGHT.
THE PREVIOUS FORECAST HAD PATCHY FOG AND WILL MAINTAIN THAT
FORECAST. MEANWHILE...ELSEWHERE EAST OF THE DIVIDE EXPECT A MIX OF
SUNSHINE AND HIGH CLOUDS ALONG WITH NEAR TO SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES. THESE CLOUDS HAVE KEPT TEMPERATURES A BIT COOLER
THAN EXPECTED IN SOME AREAS...SUCH AS HERE AT NWS RIVERTON. PLACES
LIKE CODY AND BUFFALO WILL HAVE DOWNSLOPING FLOW THAT WILL PUSH
TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO 60 THOUGH.

THURSDAY AT THIS POINT LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER QUIET DAY WITH MORE OF THE
SAME. TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER ACROSS AREAS THAT WERE CLOSE
TO 60 BUT STILL ABOVE NORMAL. THE GFS DOES SHOW A BIT OF
PRECIPITATION APPROACHING THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE STATE LATE
THURSDAY. THE NAM IS DRY HOWEVER. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE
FORECAST DRY SINCE A VAST MAJORITY OF THE DAY WOULD BE PRECIPITATION
FREE.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A LONG WAVE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL BE ESTABLISHED OVER THE WESTERN
UNITED STATES THROUGH THE MID AND LONG TERM WHILE A SERIES OF
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGHS WILL COME OVER THE TOP OF
THE RIDGE BRINGING PACIFIC MOISTURE AND LIFT INTO WESTERN WYOMING AT
TIMES.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE OVER THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY
NIGHT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING SOUTH FROM MONTANA INTO NORTHERN
WYOMING.  CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL HAVE BREEZY TO WINDY WEST
WINDS WITH DRY CONDITIONS EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  SHOWERS
WILL DECREASE AS THE TROUGH MOVES EAST AND THE RIDGE REBOUNDS.  A FEW
SNOW SHOWERS WILL REMAIN IN THE NORTHWEST ON FRIDAY THEN DISSIPATE
FRIDAY NIGHT.  A SECOND PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL
THEN MOVE EAST REACHING THE NORTHWEST SATURDAY MORNING WITH
INCREASING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW IN THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE DAY...CONTINUING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT AS ANOTHER COLD
FRONT MOVES OUT OF MONTANA WITH INCREASING CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE
NORTH AND EAST LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. A SECOND
PACIFIC SHORT WAVE LOW PRESSURE TROUGH WILL MOVE INTO WESTERN
WYOMING SUNDAY NOT ALLOWING THE RIDGE TO REBOUND.  THIS SHOULD
RESULT IN A PROLONGED PERIOD OF LIGHT TO MODERATE SNOWFALL IN THE
WEST AS THE PACIFIC MOISTURE FETCH INCREASES AND THE TIMING OF A
SERIES OF PACIFIC TROUGHS KEEPS SUPPRESSING THE RIDGE.  EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE COULD BECOME QUITE WINDY SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY MORNING ANOTHER COLD FRONT SHOULD BRUSH
THE NORTH AND EAST WITH SOME AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW.  ANOTHER PACIFIC
TROUGH THEN MOVES EAST TOWARDS WESTERN WYOMING WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW IN THE WEST MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT.  THEN THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE REBOUNDS AND BECOMES MORE DOMINANT WITH DRYING ACROSS
THE WESTERN UNITED STATES.  THIS WILL DECREASE SNOW CHANCES THROUGH
THE DAY TUESDAY WITH DRY CONDITIONS TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY
MORNING.  SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS MAY RETURN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
WITH A VERY PROGRESSIVE FLOW PATTERN WITH SIGNIFICANT CHANGES IN
CLOUD COVER...PRECIPITATION AND WIND...TEMPERATURES WILL BE MORE
DIFFICULT TO NAIL DOWN.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH MOST AREAS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.
MOST AREAS WILL SEE AREAS OF PASSING HIGH CLOUDS WITH A GUSTY BREEZY
CONTINUING ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR.
ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS...FOG MAY REFORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AFTER 09Z THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND
PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION
IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND
EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON ALTHOUGH SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 101717
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1017 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE CASPER AREA AND WNW WINDS AROUND CLARK ARE
ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SFC
LEE ENHANCED TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL ONLY
TIGHTEN AS A SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS SFC WX FEATURE IS ASCT WITH A VORT LOBE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FRONT OF THE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 9 TO 10C SFC
TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
GAP FLOW ALONG THE CLARKS FORK CANYON AS WELL AS ALONG BOTH FORKS OF
THE SHOSHONE RIVER. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN BORDERLINE HIGH WINDS IN THE
CLARK AREA TODAY. 700MB WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN 35 KNOTS SO EVEN THE ABSAROKA MTNS/CHIEF JOSEPH WILL NOT
BLOW THAT HARD. THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AREA WILL HAVE A DECENT
GRADIENT WIND TODAY OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH. NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW IN THAT AREA AS MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
CRUSTED OVER FROM TUESDAYS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS AND TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER TODAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH NEAR RECORD
LEVELS WITH H7 TEMPS AT AROUND THE 3C MARK AT 18Z TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WY. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 60 IN BYG/COD TODAY BUT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER AROUND CPR WHERE SNOW COVER EXISTS...ESP JUST
WEST OF CASPER WHERE THE SNOW COVER APPEARS TO BE DEEPER/MORE
CONTINUOUS...SO 40S TO LOW 50S WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC THERE. THE
TRAPPED BASINS/VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE BIG HORN BASINS WILL AGAIN REACH THE 50S WHERE LACK OF SNOW
COVER EXISTS. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS. THE BIGGER COOL DOWN BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND BASINS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...AND NOW WITH THE MELTING SNOW AROUND THE AREA...THAT TREND
TOWARD FOGGY MORNINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SOME BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY START REBUILDING AGAIN AT THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH OUR SATURDAY/SAT NGT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE...AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. KEEPING POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. SOME DECENT WINDS WILL LIKELY BLOW JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DECENT MIXING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS WARM ADVECTION/UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
IN THE NW FLOW. MOSTLY SNOW...EXCEPT A MIXTURE POSSIBLE MON AFTN
IN THE WRN VALLEYS. AFTER A LITTLE COOLDOWN SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY WITH 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH 30S AND EVEN A
FEW 40S WEST. STRONG ENOUGH FLOW THAT WILL SEE WINDY PERIODS OVER
THE PEAKS...LEE SLOPES...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AT
TIMES. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ON TUE SIMILAR TO THE SAT
ONE THAT THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW. HARD TO TELL WHERE THIS
SYSTEM ORIGINATES. WITH RIDGE AXIS WEAKENED FOR A DAY OR
TWO...IT`S POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE COULD COME ON THE COAST AND MOVE
SE TOWARDS US BUT HARD TO PICK THIS WAVE UP. WILL JUST KEEP IN
SOME SLGT CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING LOOKS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY TRY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REBUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE FAR WRN
MTNS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT FOR THE BASINS TO MIX OUT AND THAT
COMBINED WITH WARM MID LEVELS LEADING TO PLENTY OF 50S FOR MANY
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL SLOWLY LIFT OUT OF THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AROUND KJAC THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE BASINS AND
VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE
MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE
BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES. SOME FOG MAY REFORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
AFTER 09Z THURSDAY.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. TODAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT WILL BE
FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER TODAY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS
OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 100923
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
223 AM MST WED FEB 10 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

SOUTHWEST WINDS IN THE CASPER AREA AND WNW WINDS AROUND CLARK ARE
ALREADY RESPONDING TO THE INCREASING SFC PRESSURE GRADIENT AS A SFC
LEE ENHANCED TROUGH ESTABLISHES ITSELF. THE SFC GRADIENT WILL ONLY
TIGHTEN AS A SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN MT AND THE
NORTHERN PLAINS TODAY. THIS SFC WX FEATURE IS ASCT WITH A VORT LOBE
TRACKING SOUTHEAST WITHIN THE FRONT OF THE PROMINENT RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN UNITED STATES. IN ADDITION...THERE WILL BE A 9 TO 10C SFC
TEMP GRADIENT BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL ENHANCE
GAP FLOW ALONG THE CLARKS FORK CANYON AS WELL AS ALONG BOTH FORKS OF
THE SHOSHONE RIVER. AN SPS HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR TODAY FOR THE CODY
FOOTHILLS. DO NOT EXPECT MORE THAN BORDERLINE HIGH WINDS IN THE
CLARK AREA TODAY. 700MB WINDS ARE NOT PROGGED BY THE NAM TO BE MUCH
MORE THAN 35 KNOTS SO EVEN THE ABSAROKA MTNS/CHIEF JOSEPH WILL NOT
BLOW THAT HARD. THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AREA WILL HAVE A DECENT
GRADIENT WIND TODAY OF 25 TO 35 MPH WITH GUSTS OF 45 MPH. NOT
CONCERNED ABOUT BLOWING SNOW IN THAT AREA AS MUCH OF THE SNOW HAS
CRUSTED OVER FROM TUESDAYS RELATIVELY MILD TEMPS AND TEMPS WILL BE
EVEN WARMER TODAY. IN FACT...HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL REACH NEAR RECORD
LEVELS WITH H7 TEMPS AT AROUND THE 3C MARK AT 18Z TODAY OVER THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF WY. HIGHS COULD APPROACH 60 IN BYG/COD TODAY BUT
WILL BE A BIT COOLER AROUND CPR WHERE SNOW COVER EXISTS...ESP JUST
WEST OF CASPER WHERE THE SNOW COVER APPEARS TO BE DEEPER/MORE
CONTINUOUS...SO 40S TO LOW 50S WOULD BE MORE REALISTIC THERE. THE
TRAPPED BASINS/VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE 30S AND 40S THIS AFTERNOON
BUT THE BIG HORN BASINS WILL AGAIN REACH THE 50S WHERE LACK OF SNOW
COVER EXISTS. FOR THURSDAY...WINDS WILL BE LIGHTER WITH SLIGHTLY
COOLER TEMPS. THE BIGGER COOL DOWN BEHIND TODAYS SYSTEM WILL REMAIN
WELL TO OUR NORTHEAST OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS. FRIDAY WILL FEATURE
A CONTINUATION OF MILD AND DRY WEATHER ALONG WITH BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS. WILL KEEP LATE NIGHT AND MORNING PATCHY FOG IN THE
VALLEYS AND BASINS THROUGH THE WEEK. SOME FOG WAS OBSERVED LAST
NIGHT...AND NOW WITH THE MELTING SNOW AROUND THE AREA...THAT TREND
TOWARD FOGGY MORNINGS IN THESE AREAS SHOULD CONTINUE.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY
LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE FAR WESTERN U.S. THROUGH EARLY NEXT
WEEK BEFORE SOME BRIEF WEAKENING EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE RIDGE WILL
LIKELY START REBUILDING AGAIN AT THE END OF THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD. EXCEPT FOR THE GFS...THE MODELS HAVE TRENDED WEAKER AND
FURTHER NORTH WITH OUR SATURDAY/SAT NGT SYSTEM AS IT MOVES THROUGH
THE MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE...AS EXPECTED LAST NIGHT. KEEPING POPS
CONFINED TO THE FAR WEST AND FAR NORTH AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH. SOME DECENT WINDS WILL LIKELY BLOW JUST AHEAD OF AND WITH
FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH THIS SYSTEM. DECENT MIXING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
EXPECTED SATURDAY. THE BETTER PCPN CHANCES MAY ACTUALLY BE SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY ACROSS THE FAR NW AS WARM ADVECTION/UPGLIDE DEVELOPS
IN THE NW FLOW. MOSTLY SNOW...EXCEPT A MIXTURE POSSIBLE MON AFTN
IN THE WRN VALLEYS. AFTER A LITTLE COOLDOWN SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES
WILL BEGIN WARMING AGAIN TO ABOVE TO WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR MID
FEBRUARY WITH 40S AND 50S EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH 30S AND EVEN A
FEW 40S WEST. STRONG ENOUGH FLOW THAT WILL SEE WINDY PERIODS OVER
THE PEAKS...LEE SLOPES...WIND CORRIDOR AND CODY FOOTHILLS AT
TIMES. ECMWF HAS A SHORTWAVE DROPPING SE ON TUE SIMILAR TO THE SAT
ONE THAT THE OTHER MODELS DO NOT SHOW. HARD TO TELL WHERE THIS
SYSTEM ORIGINATES. WITH RIDGE AXIS WEAKENED FOR A DAY OR
TWO...IT`S POSSIBLE A SHORTWAVE COULD COME ON THE COAST AND MOVE
SE TOWARDS US BUT HARD TO PICK THIS WAVE UP. WILL JUST KEEP IN
SOME SLGT CHANCES ACROSS THE NRN MTNS FOR NOW AND SEE HOW
EVERYTHING LOOKS TONIGHT. ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MAY TRY AND MOVE
THROUGH THE REBUILDING LONGWAVE RIDGE RIGHT AT THE END OF THE
MEDIUM RANGE PERIOD. A CHANCE OF SNOW WILL RETURN TO THE FAR WRN
MTNS...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH RAIN IN THE VALLEYS. ENOUGH PRESSURE
GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT FOR THE BASINS TO MIX OUT AND THAT
COMBINED WITH WARM MID LEVELS LEADING TO PLENTY OF 50S FOR MANY
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH MID 30S TO MID 40S WEST.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
THIS MORNING. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR TRENDS IN SATELLITE
IMAGERY...LOCAL WEBCAMS AND KJAC OBSERVATIONS TO DECIDE HOW HARD TO
HIT THE KJAC TERMINAL RIGHT AT 12Z ISSUANCE. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE
THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS TODAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY
LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION THIS WEEK. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. TODAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS
COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT WILL BE
FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER TODAY AS WELL...WHICH
WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO MAJOR SNOW STORMS
OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 100538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1037 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL ONCE AGAIN IMPACT THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS
WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE FOG/LOW CLOUDS ONCE THEY FORM WILL PROBABLY
NOT SCATTER OUT/LIFT UNTIL EARLY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY INCREASING HIGH
CLOUDS WEDNESDAY. THE BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL SEE FAIRLY LIGHT WINDS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WHILE MOUNTAINS...FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL BE BREEZY TO WINDY AT TIMES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 092020
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
120 PM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WIND WILL BE THE MAIN STORY IN THE SHORT TERM AS A LEE TROUGH DIGS
AT THE SURFACE AND A SHARP TEMPERATURE GRADIENT DEVELOPS ALONG THE
ABSAROKAS. THERE IS A WEAK MOUNTAIN WAVE SIGNATURE THAT DEVELOPS
ALONG THE CODY FOOTHILLS. FLOW ACROSS THE BARRIER IS MARGINAL AND
THE DIRECTION OF THE FLOW IS HOLDING TO MUCH OF A NORTHERLY
COMPONENT FOR A CLASSIC CLARK BREAKING MOUNTAIN WAVE...BUT THERE
WILL BE SOME GUSTY CROSS WINDS ALONG HIGHWAY 120 AND FOR AREAS
WEST OF CODY AND AROUND CLARK TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.
THERE COULD BE SOME 30 TO 40 MPH WINDS COMING OUT OF THE CANYONS
WITH OCCASIONAL GUSTS TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE IN FAVORED AREAS.
OTHERWISE...FLOW WILL INCREASE FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER AS
THE LEE TROUGH CONTINUES TO SET UP WITH 20 TO 35 MPH WINDS COMMON
IN THAT AREA.

THE GOOD NEWS WITH ALL OF THE WIND IS THAT THERE WILL BE WARM AIR
ALOFT MIXING DOWN. THERE COULD EVEN BE SOME RECORD HIGHS IN
FOOTHILL LOCATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THE WESTERN VALLEYS ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN UNDER RATHER STEEP INVERSIONS WITH MORNING FOG
OBSCURING THE SKIES AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY. THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE
FOR MIXING IN THE BASINS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...BUT EVEN IF WE DO
NOT FULLY MIX THERE WILL STILL BE A NICE SUNNY AND MILD DAY FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

MAINLY QUIET WEATHER WILL CONTINUE TO BE THE RULE INTO MUCH OF THE
LONG TERM PERIOD. THERE WILL STILL BE SOME GUSTY WINDS WEDNESDAY
NIGHT ACROSS THE USUAL LOCATIONS LIKE NEAR CLARK AND ALSO ACROSS THE
SOUTHWESTERN WIND CORRIDOR HOWEVER HIGH WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED AT
THIS TIME. A WEAK COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE WILL THEN
SLIDE ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. THE NAM IS
SHOWING A FEW SHOWERS WITH THE PASSAGE BUT EVEN THESE LOOK TO BE
FAIRLY INCONSEQUENTIAL. THE FRONT COULD MIX OUT THE BASINS A BIT
MORE FOR THURSDAY AS WELL. TEMPERATURES SHOULD CONTINUE ACROSS SLOW
CLIMB ACROSS THE BASINS AS THE ABOVE FREEZING TEMPERATURES MELT THE
SNOW PACK AND THE ALBEDO DECREASES THROUGH FRIDAY. ALL IN ALL THE
RESULTS OF RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA.

BY SATURDAY ANOTHER WAVE WILL APPROACH THE WEST. THERE ARE SOME
DIFFERENCES WITH THE MODELS WITH THE EUROPEAN SHOWING A BOUNDARY
SETTING UP ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING. MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS FURTHER
NORTH AND KEEPS PRECIPITATION ACROSS MONTANA. WITH THE UNCERTAINTY
WE MADE FEW CHANGES. ANOTHER PIECE OF ENERGY MAY BRING A FEW MORE
SHOWERS FOR SUNDAY ACROSS THE WESTERN AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS BUT
AGAIN THE BEST MOISTURE LOOKS TO REMAIN TO THE NORTH OF THE AREA.
ALMOST ALL THE LOWER ELEVATIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD REMAIN DRY
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE MODELS REALLY DIVERGE FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE GFS REBUILDS THE
RIDGE THROUGH TUESDAY WITH DRY WEATHER ACROSS MUCH OF THE COWBOY
STATE. MEANWHILE...THE EUROPEAN HAS A FLATTER RIDGE WITH SOME
DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE TOP OF IT. BUT AGAIN...MOST OF THE
ENERGY AT THIS POINT LOOKS TO STAY ACROSS MONTANA AND THE MODEL IS
FURTHER NORTH THAN THE 00Z RUN. FOR NOW...FEW CHANGES WERE MADE TO
CONTINUITY UNTIL THE MODELS COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED AGAIN AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...PERSISTING INTO THE LATE MORNING ON WEDNESDAY.
OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS ARE EXPECTED IN THE
DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING
MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE...ELEVATED MOUNTAIN WAVES LEE OF THE ABSAROKAS
AND WIND RIVERS AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE
FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE
AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...
ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS
ASIDE FROM OCCNL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

STEEP TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS...ESPECIALLY IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS
WILL LEAD TO VERY POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL
BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL
WYOMING. WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA
MOUNTAINS COULD SEE A FEW GUSTS OVER 50 MPH NEAR THE CANYONS. IT
WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...WHICH WILL IMPROVE SMOKE DISPERSION IN THESE AREAS. NO
MAJOR SNOW STORMS OR WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND EVENTS ARE ON THE
HORIZON...

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 091801
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1101 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.PREV DISCUSSION...

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

FOG/LOW CLOUDS ARE BEGINNING TO BREAK UP OVER THE FAR WESTERN
VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC TERMINAL. REDEVELOPMENT IS EXPECTED
AFTER 06Z TONIGHT IN THE SAME AREAS. OTHERWISE...BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WINSD ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS
WELL AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND
POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR IN THE FOOTHILLS...BUT NOT ENOUGH
TO MERIT A MENTION IN THE TAF BUT BE AWARE OF THE POSSIBILITY OF
BRIEF LLWS IN THE FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY IF TERMINAL WINDS ARE
LIGHT AND VARIABLE...ESPECIALLY AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS
WILL PREVAIL AT MOST LOCATIONS ASIDE FROM WESTERN VALLEY FOG.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ALLEN
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 090905
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
205 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS ARE BECOMING RATHER STARK. FOR EXAMPLE...HERE
IN OUR COZY PROTECTED WIND RIVER BASIN WE ARE SITTING AT 28DEGREES
HERE ATOP GRIFFEY HILL AT THE NWS LOCATION...WHILE IT IS 22
DEGREES AT THE NEARBY RIW ASOS SITE...AND ONLY 1 ABOVE RIGHT ALONG
THE LITTLE WIND RIVER 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AT THE TIME OF
THIS WRITING. ABOVE THE INVERSION...BOTH CROWHEART AND DUBOIS HAVE
36 DEGREES WITH NW WINDS OF 29 GUST 37 MPH IN DUBOIS IN THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN AS THE NW GRADIENT WIND ALONG THE FRONT OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE CONTINUES TO MIX OUT AREAS ABOVE THE INVERSIONS.
THESE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS WILL BE A PLAYER THROUGH AT LEAST
THURSDAY MORNING. BY WEDNESDAY...700MB TEMPS WILL RISE TO 4C OVER
CENTRAL WY AS THE STRONG RIDGE TO THE WEST ATTEMPTS TO BUILD INTO
THE AREA. BY WEDNESDAY...WE WILL WITNESS NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE
50S AND EVEN SOME LOW 60S IN AREAS LIKE THE CODY FOOTHILLS AS WELL
AS JOHNSON COUNTY INCLUDING BYG. OTHER AREAS THAT MIX OUT SUCH AS
THE SOUTHERN WIND CORRIDOR FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR WILL NOT GET
AS WARM AS THERE IS STILL PLENTY OF SNOW COVER TO MELT DOWN IN
THOSE AREAS SO 40S ARE MORE LIKELY IN THOSE AREAS WED. THE TRAPPED
BASINS AND VALLEYS WILL REMAIN IN THE UPPER 30S TO THE MID 40S. BY
WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE WILL FLATTEN A BIT ALLOWING A COUPLE OF WEAK
VORT LOBES TO TRACK SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA. THE SFC GRADIENT
WILL INCREASE AS AN ASCT SFC LOW TRACKS SOUTHEAST ACROSS EASTERN
MT AND THE NORTHERN PLAINS INCREASING THE SFC GRADIENT THAT WILL
PRECEDE A LEE SIDE SFC TROUGH. H7 WINDS WILL INCREASE TO 35 KNOTS
WED. THIS WILL BE THE MECHANICS DRIVING THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST
WIND FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR ON WEDNESDAY HELPING TO DRAW IN
THE WARMER AIR. IN ADDITION...THE CODY/CLARK AREA WILL EXPERIENCE
INCREASING WEST WINDS WEDNESDAY AS A MARGINAL TEMP GRADIENT
BETWEEN YNP AND THE CODY FTHLS DVLPS ALONG WITH A WEAK MTN WAVE
SIGNATURE. IN ADDITION...THE FROUDE NUMBER FOR 15Z WED IS FCST TO
BE A 1.OO. WESTERLY EXITING WINDS ON THE CROSS SECTION ARE
STRONGER THEN THE WINDS ENTERING THE AREA. FOR NOW WILL HANDLE THE
CLARK/CODY WINDS WITH AN SPS AS HIGH WIND POTENTIAL APPEARS TO BE
BORDERLINE AT THIS TIME. BEHIND THIS WEAK DISTURBANCE WED...A
MAINLY DRY BACKDOOR COOL FRONT WILL LOWER TEMPS ON
THURSDAY...EXCEPT WILL ACTUALLY INCREASE TEMPS IN AREAS STILL
TRAPPED WITHIN STRONG INVERSIONS. ONE SIDE NOTE...PATCHY LATE
NIGHT AND MORNING FOG WILL LIKELY FORM IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND
BASINS AS WELL AS IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY
MORNING ALONG WITH FAVORABLE SOUNDINGS INDICATING DRY AND MILD AIR
ATOP STRONG MOIST COLD AIR...ESPECIALLY ON TUE/WED MORNINGS. A FEW
SNOW FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED IN THE NW MTNS AND IN THE BIG HORNS
BEHIND THE BACKDOOR COOL FRONT THU NT.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY
MEAN LONGWAVE RIDGE HOLDS OVER THE WESTERN U.S. THROUGH THE
WEEKEND BEFORE THE FLOW WILL LIKELY FLATTEN. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING A SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE RIDGE. BOTH THE GFS AND
EURO SEEM RATHER STRONG FOR A SYSTEM ENTERING A STRONG RIDGE. THE
GEM IS FURTHER NORTH WITH JUST A GLANCING BLOW OF PCPN TO THE FAR
NORTH. THE GFS IS ALSO ON THE SLOW END WITH THE EURO ON THE FAST
END. POPS ARE LOW NOW FOR THE MTNS AND FAR NORTH SO NOT A BIG DEAL
BUT LEAN TOWARDS A WEAKER SYSTEM THAN THE GFS/EURO ARE SHOWING.
SOME INCREASE IN WIND PROBABLY WITH SOME INVERSIONS WEAKENING OR
BREAKING BUT LIMITED PCPN CHANCES AND MAINLY OVER THE MTNS/FAR
NORTH. AFTER THAT...AS THE EXPECTED FLOW FLATTENS...WE`LL SEE MORE
WIND IN THE MTNS/FOOTHILLS AND WIND CORRIDOR WITH MORE UPGLIDE
PCPN ACROSS THE WEST. TEMPS COULD BE WARM ENOUGH TO GET SOME MIXED
PCPN OR EVEN VALLEY RAIN BY THEN...SO SOMETHING TO WATCH WITH
TIME. INCREASED GRADIENT AND WINDS ALOFT WILL HELP MIX THE BASINS
AND VALLEYS ALSO.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS AND CASPER AREAS...AS WELL
AS IN THE MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF
LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR. TONIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING THIS MORNING. ALSO...TONIGHT
SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY FOOTHILLS
WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH MILD TEMPERATURES ABOVE THE TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS AND
SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES. WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY
SIDE TODAY ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA. IT WILL BE FAIRLY WINDY FROM THE RED
DESERT TO CASPER WEDNESDAY AS WELL. OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS
AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...PS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 090529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1029 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS...CASPER AREAS...PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...TUESDAY
NIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 090529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1029 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THERE IS A GOOD SHOT AT WIDESPREAD FOG/LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING BETWEEN
09Z AND 14Z OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...INCLUDING THE JAC
TERMINAL. IF IT DEVELOPS...FOG/LOW CEILINGS WILL LIKELY PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING DUE TO THE VERY STEEP SURFACE INVERSION...NOT
IMPROVING UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON. PATCHY FOG WILL ALSO BE
POSSIBLE IN THE CENTRAL BASIN...BUT COVERAGE SHOULD BE LIMITED AND
ONLY HAVE VCFG AT KRIW TERMINAL. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
ONLY VARIABLE HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED. BREEZY WEST TO
NORTHWEST WIND ARE EXPECTED IN THE DUBOIS...CASPER AREAS...PORTIONS
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN AS WELL AS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...CREATING MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE AND POCKETS OF LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR. TUESDAY NIGHT...FOG DEVELOPMENT IS AGAIN
POSSIBLE...MAINLY OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...BUT WILL ONLY HAVE
VCFG AND SEE WHAT ENDS UP HAPPENING TUESDAY MORNING. ALSO...TUESDAY
NIGHT SOME STRONG WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CODY
FOOTHILLS WHICH WILL RESULT IN BREEZY WESTERLY WINDS OR LOW LEVEL
WIND SHEAR AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 082106
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
206 PM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

IMAGERY SHOWS AMPLIFIED RIDGE/TROF PATTERN WEST TO E ACROSS THE
CONUS...WITH WY UNDER NW FLOW. SFC HAS HIGH P ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
INTO WRN WY WITH LOWERING P TO THE E SUPPORTING A MODEST P GRAD AND
SOME BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS OVR THE WIND CORRIDOR. OTHERWISE...ONLY
A FEW MID/UPR CLOUDS ACROSS THE FA.

RATHER STATIC PATTERN THRU THE SHORT TERM WITH MOSTLY DRY UPR LVL
RIDGING REMAINING IN CONTROL OF THE WRN CONUS AND THE FA REMAINING
UNDER STEEP NW FLOW. FEW TO SCATTERED AREAS OF MID/UPR CLOUD RING
THE OUTSIDE OF THE CWA WITH LITTLE TO NO CLOUD OVR THE INTERIOR.
HOWEVER...EVEN THESE CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE DECREASE THRU THE FCST
PERIOD. WITH DECENT DAYTIME WARMING MELTING SNOW...OVERNIGHT/EARLY
MORNINGS ACROSS THE SOME AREAS MAY ALLOW FOR PATCHY FOG FORMATION IF
LOW UPR LVL FLOW QUIETS/LIFTS ENOUGH TO KEEP TURBULENCE ALOFT FROM
INFLUENCING THE SFC. BEST BESTS FOR PATCHY FOG WILL BE IN THE WRN
VALLEYS AND THE WIND RIVER BASIN...WITH SOMEWHAT LESSER CHANCES OVR
THE OTHER BASINS. BREEZY/GUSTY CONDITIONS WILL BE IN PLACE ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...PORTIONS OF THE UPPER GREEN BASIN...AND THE
WIND CORRIDOR. HOWEVER...NO HIGHLIGHTS ARE EXPECTED AS CRITICAL
ATMOSPHERIC CONDITIONS FOR HIGH WIND WILL NOT BE MET AT THIS TIME.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT WARMING SEASONAL HIGHS AND LOWS AND NO PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THE LONG TERM PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO BE DOMINATED BY A WARM RIDGE
WITH BASIN AND VALLEY INVERSIONS HOLDING IN MOST AREAS BUT EVEN
GRADUAL WARMING IS EXPECTED IN THESE LOCATIONS. A PACIFIC COLD
FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT OR SUNDAY BRINGING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

THE ONLY POTENTIAL FOR HAZARDOUS WEATHER WILL BE EARLY WEDNESDAY
WHEN GAP FLOW SETS UP ALONG THE ABSAROKAS...THERE COULD BE SOME 60
MPH WIND GUSTS NEAR CLARK AND WEST OF CODY...NOT SURE IT WILL BE
WIDESPREAD ENOUGH FOR A HIGH WIND WARNING BUT IT WILL BE WATCHED
CLOSELY NONETHELESS. AS A LEE TROUGH DIPS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...THE
WIND WILL ALSO PICK UP BETWEEN THE RED DESERT AND CASPER. WHILE IT
WILL BE WINDY...IT WILL ALSO BE WARMER...WITH MILD AIR POSSIBLY
MIXING DOWN FOR RECORD OR NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S AND
POSSIBLY 60 NEAR CASPER...CODY...CROWHEART AND BUFFALO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS STILL QUITE A BIT OF SNOW ON THE GROUND AT CASPER
HOWEVER...THAT MAY HOLD TEMPERATURES DOWN AT OR BELOW 50 DEGREES.

A SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
ON THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL
BASINS WITH INCREASING NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE
MID-LEVELS. IT WILL NOT AMOUNT TO MUCH IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
HOWEVER IT COULD HAVE A POSITIVE AFFECT ON BASIN AND VALLEY
INVERSIONS...ALLOWING THEM TO ERODE A BIT...SO IT WILL TAKE A COLD
FRONT TO WARM UP THE VALLEYS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM OF NOTE MOVES THROUGH LATE IN THE WEEKEND. THERE
IS STILL SOME DISAGREEMENT ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SPLITTING
TROUGH BUT IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO HAVE MUCH OF AN IMPACT GIVEN ITS
CURRENT TRACK AND STRENGTH. IT WILL LIKELY JUST MUSTER SOME
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS ON SUNDAY AND SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES AND
GUSTY WIND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. HOWEVER...TEMPERATURES QUICKLY
REBOUND ON MONDAY AS THE RIDGE BUILDS BACK INTO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN THIS EVENING WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR
MOUNTAINS AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT WILL REMAIN A POSSIBILITY OVER
THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN WIND
RIVER VALLEY OVERNIGHT INTO THE MORNING. HAVE INSERTED VCFG INTO THE
KJAC AND KRIW TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP IT OUT
OF THE UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF
BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER REMAINS LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE WORK
WEEK...WITH SEASONAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW COVERING MANY SURFACES.
WINDS...HOWEVER...WILL BE ON THE BREEZY SIDE TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY
ACROSS THE USUAL WIND PRONE AREA OF CENTRAL WYOMING.
WEDNESDAY...AREAS IN AND ADJACENT TO THE ABSAROKA MOUNTAINS COULD
SEE NEAR HIGH WIND CRITERIA...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS.
OTHERWISE...MOST LATE MORNINGS AND AFTERNOONS ACROSS WYOMING SHOULD
SEE GOOD SMOKE DISPERSION THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 081700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1000 AM MST MON FEB 8 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

NW WINDS HAVE BEEN BLOWING FAIRLY STEADILY ACROSS THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN FROM CROWHEART TO DUBOIS AS WELL AS IN THE VCNTY
OF PINEDALE IN RESPONSE TO THE RELATIVELY TIGHT SFC PRESSURE
GRADIENT PRODUCED BY THE SFC HIGH CONTINUING TO BUILD IN FROM THE
WEST. THE HEART OF THE WIND RIVER AND UPPER GREEN RIVER BASINS
ARE NO LONGER MIXED WITH LIGHT OR CALM WINDS. CURRENTLY IT IS 10
DEGREES 2 MILES SOUTH OF RIVERTON AND 37 IN CROWHEART AS
INVERSIONS REESTABLISH THEMSELVES AMONGST SNOW COVER. SOUTHWEST
WINDS WILL RETURN FROM RKS TO CPR TODAY AS A SFC LEE SIDE TROUGH
BEGINS TO DEVELOP. WITH TEMPERATURE INVERSIONS STRENGTHENING BY
12Z TUESDAY AND DRY AIR JUST ABOVE THE SURFACE...BASINS AND
VALLEYS THAT STILL MAINTAIN SNOWCOVER WILL LIKELY SEE PATCHY FOG
LATE TONIGHT AND TUESDAY MORNING AS WELL AS LATE TUE NT AND WED
MORNING. TEMPS WILL WARM THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WORK WEEK WITH
BASINS AND VALLEYS LAGGING A DAY OR SO BEHIND AS HIGH PRESSURE
CONTINUES TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST. NEAR RECORD HIGHS IN THE 50S
AND 60S ARE NOT OUT OF THE REALM OF POSSIBILITIES FOR MIXED AREAS
LIKE CPR AND BYG RESPECTIVELY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WED AFTERNOON.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL LIKELY RETURN FROM THE RED DESERT TO CPR
WEDNESDAY AS THE RIDGE FLATTENS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO PREVAIL OVER THE AREA
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH DRY WEATHER AND UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES
OVER MOST OF THE AREA. INVERSIONS WILL LIKELY HOLD BUT WEAKEN OVER
COLDER FAR WEST VALLEYS. A PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
AREA SATURDAY NIGHT BRINGING CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS TO THE WEST
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REBUILD OVER
THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...ECMWF AND GFS IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH FRIDAY
WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE AREA.  DIFFERENCES ARISE WITH THE NEXT
PACIFIC TROUGH SPLITTING ALONG THE WEST COAST ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY.

SHORTWAVE TOPPING THE RIDGE AND DIVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS ON
THURSDAY WILL PROVIDE BETTER MIXING ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS
WITH INCREASING NW WINDS AND COLD ADVECTION IN THE MID-LEVELS.  ONLY
THE NORTHERN BIGHORN RANGE MAY RECEIVE SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
WITH THIS CLIPPER. TEMPERATURES IN THE FAR WEST VALLEYS THAT MAY
BE TRAPPED UNDER STEEP INVERSIONS IN THE SHORT-TERM COULD MODERATE
AS WELL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH WARM ADVECTION LIKELY BRINGING
SOME BKN-OVC STRATUS DECKS INTO THE AREA.

BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW A GREATER DEGREE OF SPLITTING WITH NEXT
PACIFIC SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC FRIDAY.  ECMWF
CONTINUES TO SHOW STRONGER NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE DIVING ACROSS
THE AREA SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE GFS DAMPENS OUT THE NORTHERN STREAM TO
A MUCH GREATER DEGREE.  GFS SOLUTION KEEP WYOMING DRY WITH A MUCH
WEAKER FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ECMWF HAS SHOWN BETTER RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH ITS STRONG FRONTAL PASSAGE.  NO MAJOR CHANGES TO
GOING FORECAST THAT IS MORE IN LINE WITH THE ECMWF WITH INCREASING
CHANCES OF SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE WEST AND FAR NORTH WITH THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING BEHIND THE FRONT ON SUNDAY WITH
BREEZY TO WINDY AREAS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE MAIN
CONCERN TODAY WILL BE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR NEAR MOUNTAINS
AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE DUE TO THE STRONG NORTHWEST TO NORTH FLOW
ALOFT. SOME PATCHY FOG/LOW CLOUD DEVELOPMENT REMAINS A POSSIBILITY
OVER THE FAR WESTERN VALLEYS...AND PERHAPS OVER THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WIND RIVER VALLEY TONIGHT. WILL INSERT VCFG INTO THE KJAC AND KRIW
TERMINAL SITES FOR LATE TONIGHT...BUT KEEP IT OUT OF THE UPPER GREEN
RIVER BASIN DUE TO THE EXPECTED CONTINUATION OF BREEZY NORTHERLY
WINDS IN THAT AREA.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN THE WEATHER STORY FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE AFTERNOONS...WITH
OTHERWISE QUIET CONDITIONS. MIXING HEIGHTS WILL REMAIN LOW THROUGH
THIS TIME RESULTING IN MORE WIDESPREAD POOR SMOKE DISPERSION. THE
MAIN EXCEPTIONS WILL BE AT SOME FAVORED FOOTHILL LOCATIONS AS WELL
AS FROM ROCK SPRINGS TO CASPER WHICH MAY SEE PERIODS OF FAIR
SMOKE DISPERSAL WITH THE PRESENCE OF GUSTY WIND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




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