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000
FXUS65 KRIW 292021
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
221 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AMPLIFIED BUBBLE HIGH OVR THE WRN
CONUS...CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH.
TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE...ONE OVR NV/SWRN
ID...THE OTHER ACROSS SRN BC/ALBERTA...BOTH OF WHICH MAY COME INTO
PLAY TUESDAY. SFC HAS LARGE BROAD AREA OF MODEST HIGH P ACROSS WY
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW P OFF TO THE SW OVR UT AND A DEVELOPING SFC
FRONT ACROSS SRN CANADA.

OVERALL...ISOLATED THUNDER OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH
LITTLE OR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE GENESIS AREAS. INCREASING
MID LVL MOISTURE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS ALONG WITH A SMALL
EMBEDDED UPR DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PUSHING THRU...WILL GIVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA TUE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. H5 TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OVR THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STRONG CAPPING WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE W AND NRN FA...EVENTUALLY INTO  THE
CNTRL BASINS BY LATE MORNING TUE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NW AND NRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM N TO S THRU THE
DAY. CURRENT HIGH TEMP MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA. HAVE LOWERED A FEW DEG DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH. PWS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 1 INCH OVR THE NRN AND NERN CWA. SFC FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE
NRN FA BY MID DAY...HELPING TO INCREASE AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM N TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LONG NARROW CAPE AND INCREASING UPR LVL FLOW AND SHEAR THRU MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORM CORES ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
IN SHORT ORDER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS OF POST FRONTAL TERRAIN FORCED
CONVERGENCE...FROM THE SRN ABSAROKAS AND SRN BIGHORNS...AND THE
REGION IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO AND SOUTH OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY (WET) WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BASINS...EWD TO THE FA BORDER. WILL HAVE WATCH
THE SITUATION AS CLOUD COVER...OR THE LACK THEREOF IN PLACES...WILL
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE STORM INITIATION AND MODE EARLY ON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS ERN FREMONT THRU NATRONA COUNTY IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO PUSH SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF
SOUTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN
SOME AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GENERALLY KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES INDEPENDENCE DAY...WHICH MAY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERALLY DRY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED...WITH MOST AREAS
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE COVERAGE OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE
GFS BEING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL FOR THOSE ENJOYING THE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE HOWEVER... THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OVER 40 MPH. LATER IN THE  MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS BOTH A SURFACE FRONT AND A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BEGIN MOVE THROUGH/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
STRONG...WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING WITH SOME
TERMINAL SITES SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CIG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL AS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND AND FUELS REMAIN IN GREEN-UP. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ENHANCED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AS HOT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCASIONALLY GUST GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS NEAR HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AS BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 292021
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
221 PM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AMPLIFIED BUBBLE HIGH OVR THE WRN
CONUS...CENTERED OVR THE GREAT BASIN...WITH EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES
AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE CONTINUING TO ROTATE AROUND THE HIGH.
TWO AREAS OF UPSTREAM INCREASED MID/UPR MOISTURE...ONE OVR NV/SWRN
ID...THE OTHER ACROSS SRN BC/ALBERTA...BOTH OF WHICH MAY COME INTO
PLAY TUESDAY. SFC HAS LARGE BROAD AREA OF MODEST HIGH P ACROSS WY
WITH RELATIVELY WEAK LOW P OFF TO THE SW OVR UT AND A DEVELOPING SFC
FRONT ACROSS SRN CANADA.

OVERALL...ISOLATED THUNDER OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS TODAY WITH
LITTLE OR VERY SLOW MOVEMENT AWAY FROM THE GENESIS AREAS. INCREASING
MID LVL MOISTURE THRU THE EARLY MORNING HRS ALONG WITH A SMALL
EMBEDDED UPR DISTURBANCE AND SFC FRONT PUSHING THRU...WILL GIVE
BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE FA TUE.

TODAY/TONIGHT...HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK. H5 TEMPS UP ANOTHER DEGREE
OR TWO OVR THOSE OF YESTERDAY. STRONG CAPPING WILL ONLY ALLOW FOR
MAINLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS LATER TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
OVERNIGHT AND THRU TUESDAY...MID/UPR LVL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ACROSS THE W AND NRN FA...EVENTUALLY INTO  THE
CNTRL BASINS BY LATE MORNING TUE. SHOWER CHANCES WILL INCREASE
ACROSS THE NW AND NRN CWA OVERNIGHT.

TUESDAY...CLOUDS WILL ALSO BE ON THE INCREASE FROM N TO S THRU THE
DAY. CURRENT HIGH TEMP MAY BE OPTIMISTIC...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
NRN HALF OF THE FA. HAVE LOWERED A FEW DEG DUE TO INCREASING CLOUD
COVER BY MID DAY...BUT MAY NOT HAVE BEEN ENOUGH. PWS WILL INCREASE
TO ABOVE 1 INCH OVR THE NRN AND NERN CWA. SFC FRONT SHOULD ENTER THE
NRN FA BY MID DAY...HELPING TO INCREASE AND SPREAD SHOWERS AND
EMBEDDED THUNDER FROM N TO S DURING THE AFTERNOON. FCST SOUNDINGS
SHOW LONG NARROW CAPE AND INCREASING UPR LVL FLOW AND SHEAR THRU MUCH
OF THE AFTERNOON...WITH A FEW STORM CORES ABLE TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAIN
IN SHORT ORDER...AND POSSIBLE LOCALIZED FLASH FLOODING. THIS WILL BE
ESPECIALLY TRUE IN AREAS OF POST FRONTAL TERRAIN FORCED
CONVERGENCE...FROM THE SRN ABSAROKAS AND SRN BIGHORNS...AND THE
REGION IMMEDIATELY ADJACENT TO AND SOUTH OF THE BIGHORN MOUNTAINS.
ADDITIONALLY...A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS WILL PRODUCE HEAVY
RAIN...GUSTY (WET) WINDS AND SMALL HAIL MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN BASINS...EWD TO THE FA BORDER. WILL HAVE WATCH
THE SITUATION AS CLOUD COVER...OR THE LACK THEREOF IN PLACES...WILL
AT LEAST PARTIALLY DICTATE STORM INITIATION AND MODE EARLY ON. AN
ISOLATED SEVERE STORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS SAME
AREA...BUT MOST LIKELY ACROSS ERN FREMONT THRU NATRONA COUNTY IN THE
EARLY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL HELP TO PUSH SHOWER ACTIVITY OUT OF
SOUTHERN WYOMING TUESDAY EVENING...WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST
FLOW. A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ALONG THE RIDGE ON
WEDNESDAY...WITH THE BRUNT OF THE SYSTEM IMPACTING NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING. A FEW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...WITH
ACTIVITY LINGERING ACROSS NORTHEASTERN WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY
MORNING. SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY WHEN
SOME AREAS WILL REACH INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN GENERALLY KEEP MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY LIMITED
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THIS INCLUDES INDEPENDENCE DAY...WHICH MAY SEE
A FEW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS...BUT GENERALLY DRY OVER THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WARMING TEMPERATURES ALSO EXPECTED...WITH MOST AREAS
REACHING BACK INTO THE 90S BY SATURDAY.

ANOTHER DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE ALONG THE RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND INTO
MONDAY...GENERATING ADDITIONAL SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY.
MODELS VARY A BIT ON THE COVERAGE OF THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY...WITH THE
GFS BEING THE MORE PESSIMISTIC MODEL FOR THOSE ENJOYING THE WARM AND
DRY CONDITIONS. BOTH MODELS DO AGREE HOWEVER... THAT ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE
LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A COUPLE OF EXCEPTIONS. ISOLATED EVENING
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE
OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING. THE MAIN
THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS
OVER 40 MPH. LATER IN THE  MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE
INCREASE AS BOTH A SURFACE FRONT AND A COUPLE OF MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCES BEGIN MOVE THROUGH/NEAR THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST AND NORTH LATE
OVERNIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON. BE
AFTERNOON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
STRONG...WILL MOVE FROM NORTH TO SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING WITH SOME
TERMINAL SITES SEEING BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS DUE TO LOWER CIG AND
REDUCED VISIBILITY IN HEAVY RAIN.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL AS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND AND FUELS REMAIN IN GREEN-UP. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ENHANCED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA...AS HOT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH
MINIMUM RH VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO
OCCASIONALLY GUST GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS NEAR HIGH
BASED THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. TUESDAY WILL SEE SOME INCREASE IN
MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN FORECAST
AREA...WITH BETTER CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION IN THE FORM OF SHOWERS
AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS...AS BOTH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND
SURFACE FRONT MOVE ACROSS THE REGION.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 291700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 291700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 291700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 291700
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER
THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THIS EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS
WILL BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH. BY TUESDAY
MORNING...MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE AS A SURFACE FRONT AND
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE BEGIN MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST BY LATE
MORNING. SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH HIGHER MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS
BECOMING MORE LIKELY AS THE MORNING WEARS ON.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290836
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290836
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290836
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290836
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 AM MDT MON JUN 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

CONVECTION WAS A LITTLE MORE WIDESPREAD TODAY THEN I THOUGHT
YESTERDAY. AT THIS TIME ALL IS QUIET WITH THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
MAINTAINING ITS GRIP OVER THE AREA. AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE THE
HEAT WILL PEAK TODAY. ALL LOWER ELEVATION SHOULD MAKE IT INTO THE
90S WITH THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE GREYBULL AND WORLAND LIKELY CRACKING
THE CENTURY MARK. AS FOR THE CHANCE OF CONVECTION...WITH THE HEIGHTS
A BIT HIGHER AND MORE OF A CAP...THERE WILL BE LESS COVERAGE THAN
THE PREVIOUS COUPLE OF DAYS. HOWEVER...WE HAVE BEEN BURNED ON THIS.
WE DID INCREASE POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND
ADJACENT FOOTHILLS. HOWEVER...MOST AREAS WILL BE DRY MOST OF THE
TIME. ALSO..WITH THE WEAKER STEERING FLOW THERE WILL BE LITTLE
CHANCE TO MOVE INTO MOST OF THE BASINS. LIKE PREVIOUS DAYS...MOST
CONVECTION SHOULD DIE OFF WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING.

ON TUESDAY THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT WESTWARD AND ALLOW A COLD
FRONT TO DROP TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE NORTH. AS A RESULT...WITH THE
LOWER HEIGHTS AND ADDITIONAL LIFT PROVIDED BY THE BOUNDARY...THIS
LOOKS TO BE THE BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE
FORECAST. MODELS HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE BEST
COVERAGE...SO WE KEPT POPS GENERIC AT THIS POINT. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE HOT...BUT A LITTLE COOLER THAN ON MONDAY.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY WE ENTER INTO A PERIOD OF NORTHWESTERLY FLOW WHICH
WILL MEAN MORE SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES. THIS ALSO MEANS A CHANCE OF
SOME SHORTWAVES AND COLD FRONTS MOVING ACROSS THE STATE. FOR
WEDNESDAY...THE NAM HAS MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS WITH ONLY SOME HIGH
ELEVATION CONVECTION. THE GFS IS A BIT WETTER. FOR NOW...WE LEFT THE
FORECAST AS IS UNTIL THE DETAILS CAN BE BETTER RESOLVED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

A STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL BE CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN
THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH A MODERATE NORTHWEST FLOW OVER
THE FORECAST AREA. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS VARY ON THE AMOUNT OF
MOISTURE AVAILABLE AND TIMING OF ANY WEAK DISTURBANCE. HOWEVER
ENOUGH MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY AND PERHAPS A QUASI-STATIONARY
FRONTAL BOUNDARY AT TIMES WARRANT SOME ISOLATED AFT/EVEN POPS
OVER THE MTS AND ADJACENT FOOTHILLS ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE
THUR - SAT.

EARLY NEXT WEEK...MODELS ARE HINTING AT SOME MONSOONAL MOISTURE
WORKING INTO THE AREA AS THE UPPER HIGH RECENTERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WOULD GIVE THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA A
BETTER CHANCE OF DAILY CONVECTION...ESPECIALLY BEGINNING MONDAY.
FOR NOW WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF POPS ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY...BUT
STILL KEEP IT MAINLY SLIGHT AS MODELS ARE TYPICALLY A BIT FAST ON
THE INITIAL SURGE OF TRUE MONSOONAL MOISTURE.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE EXTENDED ARE EXPECTED TO BE 5 TO 10
DEGREES ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
MOUNTAINS ON MONDAY WITH A COUPLE OF THESE MAKING IT ONTO THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BY MONDAY EVENING...BUT THEY LOOK TO BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS. THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE STORMS WILL
BE LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS OVER 40 MPH.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT A HOT AND MAINLY DRY DAY ACROSS THE AREA WITH MAINLY RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FALLING INTO THE MIDDLE TO HIGH TEENS IN THE HOTTER AREAS.
WIND SHOULD REMAIN LIGHT TO MODERATE HOWEVER. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING THUNDERSTORMS MAY FIRE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS BUT THERE IS
LITTLE CHANCE OF STORMS DRIFTING INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. SMOKE
DISPERSAL SHOULD BE GOOD IN MOST AREAS. A COLD FRONT DROPPING
SOUTHWARD WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS FOR TUESDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281938
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
138 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AMPLIFIED BUBBLE HIGH OVR THE WRN CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THE HIGH. SMALL EMBEDDED SW JUST NOW ENTERING THE NWRN FA. UPSTREAM
AND OFF THE WCST...SW TROF W OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AMPLIFIED TROF ERN
CONUS. H7 TEMPS RANGE FROM 13 TO 18 DEG C FROM E TO W. SFC HAS WY
UNDER MOSTLY HIGH P...WITH A WEAK HEAT LOW CENTERED OVR THE CNTRL
AND NRN BASINS...AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/FRONT FROM ERN ID AND
ACROSS SRN MT.

OVERALL...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT THRU THE FCST WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE START IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO 600MB OR HIGHER. MOST CI WILL
START IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE NRN
BOUNDARY/FRONT PUSHES SWD. TERRAIN FORCED CONVERGENCE IN SHALLOW
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTH FLOW AROUND THE BIGHORNS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PROPAGATE FROM WRN NATRONA COUNTY...SEWD
THIS EVENING. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK FLOW THRU DEPTH WILL
OFFER UP MAINLY GUST BUSTER STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
TO 45KTS OR SO. AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

MONDAY...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 IN THE BIGHORN BASIN...90S OVR MOST OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE 80S FOR SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...CAPPING MUCH DEEPER THAN
SUNDAY...AND WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING...FEWER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PRESENT THEMSELVES. AGAIN...ANY THAT DO WILL BE TIED TO
MOUNTAINS AND BE WITHOUT MUCH PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY.

GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY WITH
COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO WYOMING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
REGARDLESS...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A FEW COLD FRONTS TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BOTH THE FRONTS AND ANY
SHORTWAVES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO HINT AT MORE INSTABILITY AND ACTIVE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER TUESDAY...COULD BE THE TYPICAL
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
BOTH MOUNTAINS AND BASINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND HIGH BASED
MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUT OUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM
ITSELF. QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH FEWER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL AS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND AND FUELS REMAIN IN GREEN-UP. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ENHANCED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS HOT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST
GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS NEAR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281938
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
138 PM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

WV IMAGERY SHOWS LARGE AMPLIFIED BUBBLE HIGH OVR THE WRN CONUS WITH
EMBEDDED DISTURBANCES AND BITS OF MID/UPR MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND
THE HIGH. SMALL EMBEDDED SW JUST NOW ENTERING THE NWRN FA. UPSTREAM
AND OFF THE WCST...SW TROF W OF NRN CALIFORNIA. AMPLIFIED TROF ERN
CONUS. H7 TEMPS RANGE FROM 13 TO 18 DEG C FROM E TO W. SFC HAS WY
UNDER MOSTLY HIGH P...WITH A WEAK HEAT LOW CENTERED OVR THE CNTRL
AND NRN BASINS...AND A WEAK SFC BOUNDARY/FRONT FROM ERN ID AND
ACROSS SRN MT.

OVERALL...PERHAPS THE BIGGEST THREAT THRU THE FCST WILL BE THE
POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLATED LIGHTNING INDUCED FIRE START IN THE
MOUNTAINS.

TODAY/TONIGHT...STABLE ATMOSPHERE TO 600MB OR HIGHER. MOST CI WILL
START IN THE HEAT OF THE DAY OVR THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS THIS
AFTERNOON...HAVING A HARD TIME MOVING OFF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
PERHAPS A LITTLE BETTER CHANCE LATER THIS EVENING AS THE NRN
BOUNDARY/FRONT PUSHES SWD. TERRAIN FORCED CONVERGENCE IN SHALLOW
RELATIVELY MOIST NORTH FLOW AROUND THE BIGHORNS MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO
ALLOW A COUPLE OF STORMS TO PROPAGATE FROM WRN NATRONA COUNTY...SEWD
THIS EVENING. INVERTED V SOUNDINGS WITH WEAK FLOW THRU DEPTH WILL
OFFER UP MAINLY GUST BUSTER STORMS WITH LIGHTNING AND GUSTY OUTFLOW
TO 45KTS OR SO. AN ISOLATED SEVERE GUST WOULD NOT BE OUT OF THE
QUESTION.

MONDAY...POSSIBLY THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE WEEK WITH HIGH TEMPS AT OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE 100 IN THE BIGHORN BASIN...90S OVR MOST OTHER LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND EVEN INTO THE 80S FOR SOME MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.
OTHERWISE...WEAKER FLOW ALOFT...CAPPING MUCH DEEPER THAN
SUNDAY...AND WITHOUT ANY ADDITIONAL FORCING...FEWER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD PRESENT THEMSELVES. AGAIN...ANY THAT DO WILL BE TIED TO
MOUNTAINS AND BE WITHOUT MUCH PRECIPITATION.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

MONDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE WARM AND GENERALLY DRY.

GREAT BASIN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN BY TUESDAY WITH
COOLER AIR SPREADING INTO WYOMING BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT.
REGARDLESS...NORTHWEST FLOW SETS UP ALOFT FOR THE REST OF THE WEEK.
THIS PATTERN SHOULD ALLOW A FEW COLD FRONTS TO MOVE ACROSS MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA. DIFFICULT TO PINPOINT BOTH THE FRONTS AND ANY
SHORTWAVES ALOFT...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND.

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS DO HINT AT MORE INSTABILITY AND ACTIVE WEATHER
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AFTER TUESDAY...COULD BE THE TYPICAL
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS FOR
BOTH MOUNTAINS AND BASINS. TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE AROUND NORMAL
THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINAL SITES THROUGH THE
FORECAST. THE GREATEST THREAT TODAY WILL REVOLVE AROUND HIGH BASED
MAINLY MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL PUT OUT FREQUENT LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH WELL AWAY FROM THE STORM
ITSELF. QUIET OVERNIGHT...WITH FEWER CHANCES FOR ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL AS WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT AND AND FUELS REMAIN IN GREEN-UP. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
BE ENHANCED BOTH TODAY AND TOMORROW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
FORECAST AREA AS HOT DAY TIME TEMPERATURES CONTINUE WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES IN THE MID AND UPPER TEENS. WINDS WILL ALSO OCCASIONALLY GUST
GREATER THAN 25 MPH FOR SHORT PERIODS NEAR HIGH BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY IN AND ADJACENT TO THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE
EARLY EVENING. NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED FROM ANY STORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY OR MONDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281710
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1110 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR
SKYS THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280849
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
249 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 280849
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
249 AM MDT SUN JUN 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

THE RADAR LOOKS MAINLY QUIET AT THIS TIME EXCEPT FOR A ROGUE
THUNDERSTORM THAT POPPED UP OVER FAR EASTERN JOHNSON COUNTY. AS
FOR TODAY...LOOK FOR IT TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO A CARBON COPY OF
SATURDAY WITH A MAINLY DRY MORNING AND THEN HIGH ELEVATION HEAT
SOURCE THUNDERSTORMS FIRING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH
ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. A FEW STORMS DID MOVE OFF OF THE
MOUNTAINS...SO WE INCREASED POPS A BIT ACROSS THE ADJACENT LOWER
ELEVATIONS. WITH A VAST MAJORITY OF THE THUNDERSTORMS BRING OF THE
HIGH BASED VARIETY AND WITH THE LARGE TEMPERATURES-FEW POINT
SPREADS...GUSTY WIND WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT. EVEN IN RIVERTON WE
HAD GUSTS TO 50 MPH FROM SOME OF THE COLLAPSING CELLS.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SIMILAR TO YESTERDAYS. MONDAY ALSO LOOKS
FAIRLY SIMILAR TO THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH 700 MILLIBAR
TEMPERATURES WARMING JUST A BIT...EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO BE A BIT
WARMER. THIS COULD BE THE DAY SOME OF THE WARMER SPOTS LIKE
GREYBULL OR WORLAND COULD REACH THE CENTURY MARK.

THE MOST ACTIVE DAY OF THE SHORT TERM STILL LOOKS TO BE TUESDAY AS A
WEAK COLD FRONT DROP INTO THE AREA TO BRING AN ADDITIONAL FOCUSING
MECHANISM TO HELP FIRE SOME THUNDERSTORMS. AS A RESULT WE HAVE ADDED
AT LEAST SLIGHT POPS FOR ALL AREAS IN THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH
THE INCREASED CLOUD COVER...TEMPERATURES MAY BE A COUPLE OF DEGREES
COOLER IN SOME AREAS...BUT IT STILL LOOKS TO BE OVERALL ANOTHER WARM
TO HOT DAY WITH TEMPERATURES WELL ABOVE NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

SYNOPSIS...NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PREVAILS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY WITH A COOLING TREND...AND A COUPLE OF DISTURBANCES
BRINGING A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH AND CENTRAL.
UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD BACK INTO THE GREAT BASIN ON
THE FOURTH OF JULY WEEKEND...BRINGING WARMER TEMPERATURES WITH
ISOLATED LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

DISCUSSION...MAIN FORECAST PROBLEM DURING THIS PERIOD CONTINUES TO
BE A BATTLE BETWEEN HOT RIDGE OVER THE WEST/SW U.S. AND COOLER
CANADIAN AIR PLUNGING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS.  597DM UPPER HIGH
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE GREAT BASIN IS EXPECTED TO DRIFT NW
REACHING ITS MOST WESTWARD EXTENT THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE BEGINNING TO
DRIFT BACK SE INTO THE GREAT BASIN OVER THE WEEKEND.  ECMWF AND GFS
ARE IN GOOD OVERALL AGREEMENT THROUGH THURSDAY...DROPPING A COUPLE
OF SHORTWAVES SE FROM NW MONTANA ACROSS N-E WYOMING WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY.  WEDNESDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS TO BE THE MORE POTENT OF THE TWO
WITH A POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE NORTH
CENTRAL.  THURSDAY`S SYSTEM LOOKS LIKE IT WILL HAVE A BIT LESS
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST.

MEDIUM-RANGE DETERMINISTIC MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY WITH THE DISLODGING UPPER LOW CURRENTLY OVER THE GULF OF
ALASKA AND SUBSEQUENT DEGREE OF DIGGING DOWN FRONT SIDE OF WESTERN
RIDGE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY.  FORECAST CONTINUES TO FAVOR A MORE HOT
EXPANSIVE SUMMER UPPER HIGH WINNING THIS BATTLE MORE IN LINE WITH
THE GFS THIS MORNING...AND KEEPING CANADIAN COLD FRONT NORTH AND
EAST OF THE AREA.  PER GFS...UPPER HIGH NEAR ITS CURRENT STRENGTH OF
AROUND 596DM IS EXPECTED TO RETURN INTO THE GREAT BASIN NEXT
WEEKEND...SO THE OVERALL RESULT SHOULD BE ONE OF PERSISTENCE WITH
HIGHS PUSHING BACK INTO THE 90S ACROSS MOST OF THE VALLEYS AND
BASINS AND A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS OVER THE WESTERN UNITED STATES
THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH A FEW HIGH TERRAIN THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE AIRMASS IS QUITE WARM AND
MARGINALLY STABLE OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. THEREFORE...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE
WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES. ISOLATED
AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. A FEW OF THESE THUNDERSTORMS
MAY DRIFT INTO THE ADJACENT VALLEYS AND COULD BRING SOME GUSTY WINDS
AT TIMES. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY
GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON
MONDAY AFTERNOON.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280404
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1004 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALMOST TO THE DIVIDE. WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS MONTANA EJECTED THE FRONT TOWARD
WYOMING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
ORIGINATING IN MONTANA COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND PRODUCED SHARP
SFC PRESSURE RISES THAT RESULTED IN STRONG 62 MPH NORTH WINDS AT
BYG.

FLAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THIS
EVENINGS FROPA...JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN SUNDAY AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY WEST. NW WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE WEST...WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY WITH LIGHTER NE TO EAST WINDS
EAST. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE EXPECTED TODAY IN NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE SFC FRONT RETREATS NORTHEAST...A FEW
COULD POP IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE LATER TODAY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE T STORMS FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING COOL FRONT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST EJECTED BY AN EASTBOUND VORT LOBE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM IN FAR NORTHERN WY AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NATRONA COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THETA E RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THOSE AREAS AS IT EXTENDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN JOHNSON COUNTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT
IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN WITH TEMPS ALSO REMAINING THE SAME OR WARMING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BISECTS TUESDAY
NIGHTS SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL STILL BE DRAPED NW TO SE...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WIND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND ALL AIRPORT LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH 20:00 THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280404
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1004 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALMOST TO THE DIVIDE. WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS MONTANA EJECTED THE FRONT TOWARD
WYOMING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
ORIGINATING IN MONTANA COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND PRODUCED SHARP
SFC PRESSURE RISES THAT RESULTED IN STRONG 62 MPH NORTH WINDS AT
BYG.

FLAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THIS
EVENINGS FROPA...JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN SUNDAY AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY WEST. NW WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE WEST...WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY WITH LIGHTER NE TO EAST WINDS
EAST. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE EXPECTED TODAY IN NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE SFC FRONT RETREATS NORTHEAST...A FEW
COULD POP IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE LATER TODAY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE T STORMS FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING COOL FRONT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST EJECTED BY AN EASTBOUND VORT LOBE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM IN FAR NORTHERN WY AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NATRONA COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THETA E RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THOSE AREAS AS IT EXTENDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN JOHNSON COUNTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT
IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN WITH TEMPS ALSO REMAINING THE SAME OR WARMING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BISECTS TUESDAY
NIGHTS SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL STILL BE DRAPED NW TO SE...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS AND DECREASING CLOUDS TO PREVAIL FOR THE REST OF
TONIGHT. GENERALLY LIGHT SURFACE WIND ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING
AND ALL AIRPORT LOCATIONS THROUGH SUNDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH 20:00 THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER





000
FXUS65 KRIW 272040
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALMOST TO THE DIVIDE. WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS MONTANA EJECTED THE FRONT TOWARD
WYOMING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
ORIGINATING IN MONTANA COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND PRODUCED SHARP
SFC PRESSURE RISES THAT RESULTED IN STRONG 62 MPH NORTH WINDS AT
BYG.

FLAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THIS
EVENINGS FROPA...JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN SUNDAY AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY WEST. NW WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE WEST...WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY WITH LIGHTER NE TO EAST WINDS
EAST. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE EXPECTED TODAY IN NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE SFC FRONT RETREATS NORTHEAST...A FEW
 COULD POP IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE LATER TODAY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE T STORMS FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING COOL FRONT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST EJECTED BY AN EASTBOUND VORT LOBE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM IN FAR NORTHERN WY AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NATRONA COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THETA E RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THOSE AREAS AS IT EXTENDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN JOHNSON COUNTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT
IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN WITH TEMPS ALSO REMAINING THE SAME OR WARMING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BISECTS TUESDAY
NIGHTS SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL STILL BE DRAPED NW TO SE...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (00Z-04Z)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT
FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY MENTION
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH 20:00 THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




000
FXUS65 KRIW 272040
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
240 PM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE CANADIAN COLD FRONT HAS MADE IT ALMOST TO THE DIVIDE. WHEN THE
SHORTWAVE TRAVELING EAST ACROSS MONTANA EJECTED THE FRONT TOWARD
WYOMING EARLIER THIS EVENING...THUNDERSTORM OUTFLOW WINDS
ORIGINATING IN MONTANA COMBINED WITH THE FRONT AND PRODUCED SHARP
SFC PRESSURE RISES THAT RESULTED IN STRONG 62 MPH NORTH WINDS AT
BYG.

FLAT HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE AREA TODAY. AFTER THIS
EVENINGS FROPA...JOHNSON COUNTY WILL BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES COOLER TODAY
THAN SUNDAY AND JUST A COUPLE OF DEGREES COOLER ELSEWHERE EAST OF
THE DIVIDE WITH NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM SUNDAY WEST. NW WINDS WILL BACK
TO THE WEST...WEST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY WITH LIGHTER NE TO EAST WINDS
EAST. WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS AND CAPE EXPECTED TODAY IN NORTHERN
AND NORTHEAST WY AS THE SFC FRONT RETREATS NORTHEAST...A FEW
 COULD POP IN THE FAR NORTH AND NE LATER TODAY.

THEN ON TUESDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM A COUPLE OF DEGREES IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTH BUT LOWER A COUPLE OF DEGREES DUE TO MORE CLOUDS
AND POSSIBLE T STORMS FROM ANOTHER APPROACHING COOL FRONT IN THE
NORTH AND NORTHEAST EJECTED BY AN EASTBOUND VORT LOBE. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL FIRST FORM IN FAR NORTHERN WY AND WILL SLIDE
SOUTHEAST TOWARD NATRONA COUNTY TUESDAY NIGHT AS A THETA E RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF IN THOSE AREAS AS IT EXTENDS IN FROM THE
SOUTHEAST. THESE SHOWERS WILL LIKELY PERSIST IN JOHNSON COUNTY
WELL INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

THEN ON WEDNESDAY...TEMPS WILL COOL SLIGHTLY BEHIND THIS NEXT FRONT
IN THE NORTH AND EAST BUT WILL LIKELY BE IN THE LOW 90S IN THE WIND
RIVER BASIN WITH TEMPS ALSO REMAINING THE SAME OR WARMING A COUPLE
OF DEGREES ELSEWHERE. A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AS ANOTHER WEAK IMPULSE IN THE WESTERLY FLOW BISECTS TUESDAY
NIGHTS SFC BOUNDARY THAT WILL STILL BE DRAPED NW TO SE...EAST OF THE
DIVIDE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 00Z MONDAY. ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (00Z-04Z)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT
FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS AND SMALL HAIL. INCREASED
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL REMAIN OVER THE WEST TONIGHT. ANOTHER
ROUND OF CONVECTION OVER THE MOUNTAINS EXPECTED SUNDAY AFTERNOON.
THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY MENTION
TERMINAL FORECASTS AT THIS TIME.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
TO THE WEST OVER GREAT BASIN NORTH INTO NORTHERN ROCKIES.
SUBTROPICAL PACIFIC MOISTURE TRANSPORTED NORTH ON WEST SIDE
OF RIDGE STARTING TO TOP THE RIDGE AND MOVE INTO NORTHWEST FLOW
SPREADING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. TEMPERATURES HAVE WARMED AND WITH
HEATING...AIR MASS BEGINNING TO DESTABILIZE OVER MOUNTAINS WITH
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS STARTING TO DEVELOP. CONVECTION
WILL HAVE HARDER TIME CONTINUING OVER THE MORE STABLE AIR MASSES
IN THE BASINS. MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE IN ON SUNDAY WITH REPEAT
OF MOSTLY MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH WARMING
CONTINUING. MIXING HEIGHTS AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR
VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE DISPERSAL THROUGH 20:00 THIS EVENING
AND AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...LIPSON
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER





000
FXUS65 KRIW 271736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE...MAINLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME THE NORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO PASS THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NW INTO N. CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASPER TO
JACKSON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED NW DRIFT OF HOT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LATTER
IN THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DISLODGING AND PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH CARVED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE FLIP-FLOPPING...WE WILL ALSO BE FLIPPING THE
CALENDAR TO JULY WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS THE MORE EXPANSIVE HOT
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE LATEST
ECMWF (AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS) THROUGH THE 4TH.

THUS...THOUGH AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN AIR
INTRUSION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS BY THE 4TH.  THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A COUPLE OF `RIDGE RIDERS` THAT WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BIGHORN
BASIN/JOHNSON COUNTY.

ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER AND WARMER WNW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE 4TH WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE NW FLOW. FORECAST
KEEPS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND PERIPHERY A MORE DOMINANT UPPER
HIGH...ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT
FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY TS MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW.
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE AS WELL...THOUGH WIND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 271736
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1136 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE...MAINLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME THE NORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO PASS THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NW INTO N. CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASPER TO
JACKSON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED NW DRIFT OF HOT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LATTER
IN THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DISLODGING AND PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH CARVED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE FLIP-FLOPPING...WE WILL ALSO BE FLIPPING THE
CALENDAR TO JULY WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS THE MORE EXPANSIVE HOT
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE LATEST
ECMWF (AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS) THROUGH THE 4TH.

THUS...THOUGH AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN AIR
INTRUSION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS BY THE 4TH.  THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A COUPLE OF `RIDGE RIDERS` THAT WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BIGHORN
BASIN/JOHNSON COUNTY.

ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER AND WARMER WNW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE 4TH WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE NW FLOW. FORECAST
KEEPS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND PERIPHERY A MORE DOMINANT UPPER
HIGH...ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE AIRPORTS ACROSS THE AREA
THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY.  ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z)
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST
INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT
FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN
ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS
ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF
THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY TS MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW.
TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY
LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH
THE MAIN HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE AS WELL...THOUGH WIND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





000
FXUS65 KRIW 270914
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
314 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE...MAINLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME THE NORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO PASS THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NW INTO N. CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASPER TO
JACKSON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED NW DRIFT OF HOT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LATTER
IN THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DISLODGING AND PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH CARVED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE FLIP-FLOPPING...WE WILL ALSO BE FLIPPING THE
CALENDAR TO JULY WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS THE MORE EXPANSIVE HOT
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE LATEST
ECMWF (AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS) THROUGH THE 4TH.

THUS...THOUGH AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN AIR
INTRUSION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS BY THE 4TH.  THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A COUPLE OF `RIDGE RIDERS` THAT WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BIGHORN
BASIN/JOHNSON COUNTY.

ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER AND WARMER WNW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE 4TH WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE NW FLOW. FORECAST
KEEPS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND PERIPHERY A MORE DOMINANT UPPER
HIGH...ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER
MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE AS WELL...THOUGH WIND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





000
FXUS65 KRIW 270914
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
314 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE...MAINLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME THE NORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO PASS THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NW INTO N. CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASPER TO
JACKSON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED NW DRIFT OF HOT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LATTER
IN THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DISLODGING AND PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH CARVED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE FLIP-FLOPPING...WE WILL ALSO BE FLIPPING THE
CALENDAR TO JULY WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS THE MORE EXPANSIVE HOT
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE LATEST
ECMWF (AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS) THROUGH THE 4TH.

THUS...THOUGH AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN AIR
INTRUSION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS BY THE 4TH.  THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A COUPLE OF `RIDGE RIDERS` THAT WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BIGHORN
BASIN/JOHNSON COUNTY.

ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER AND WARMER WNW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE 4TH WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE NW FLOW. FORECAST
KEEPS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND PERIPHERY A MORE DOMINANT UPPER
HIGH...ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER
MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE AS WELL...THOUGH WIND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM




000
FXUS65 KRIW 270914
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
314 AM MDT SAT JUN 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA HAS SPARSE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA
WITH WIDESPREAD DRY CONDITIONS. THESE CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST
THROUGH THE MORNING...WITH A SURGE OF MOISTURE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
MOISTURE...MAINLY IMPACT THE CENTRAL MOUNTAIN RANGES.

THIS PATTERN WILL THEN BECOME THE NORM FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...WITH HIGH PRESSURE DRIVEN DRY CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND WEAK
MOUNTAIN SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO WARM THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH HIGHS REACHING
INTO THE UPPER 90S BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THERE IS THE POSSIBLE FOR
SOME LOCATIONS TO PASS THE CENTURY MARK ON MONDAY ACROSS THE BIGHORN
BASIN. THUNDERSTORMS MAY CONTAIN GUSTY WIND AS WELL AS SMALL HAIL.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

SYNOPSIS...A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE GREAT
BASIN WILL CONTINUE TO BRING HOT TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY.  THIS HIGH PRESSURE CENTER WILL DRIFT NW INTO N. CALIFORNIA
AND NEVADA ON WEDNESDAY RESULTING IN A NW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND A
COOLING TREND THROUGH THE 4TH OF JULY.  ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY FOUND ALONG AND NORTH OF A CASPER TO
JACKSON LINE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

DISCUSSION...THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD
CONTINUES TO BE THE ADVERTISED NW DRIFT OF HOT UPPER HIGH OVER THE
GREAT BASIN AND DEGREE OF AMPLIFICATION OF DOWNSTREAM TROUGH LATTER
IN THE WEEK EAST OF THE ROCKIES.  MODELS HAVE SHOWN POOR RUN-TO-RUN
CONSISTENCY IN DISLODGING AND PROGRESSION OF UPPER LOW...CURRENTLY
OVER THE GULF OF ALASKA...OVER THE WESTERN U.S. RIDGE. THE GFS IS
ADVERTISING A SHARPER TROUGH CARVED OUT BY THIS SYSTEM OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY WHILE THE ECMWF MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE ROCKIES AND HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE
MODELS CONTINUE FLIP-FLOPPING...WE WILL ALSO BE FLIPPING THE
CALENDAR TO JULY WHICH INCREASINGLY FAVORS THE MORE EXPANSIVE HOT
UPPER HIGH OVER THE GREAT BASIN/INTERMOUNTAIN WEST PER THE LATEST
ECMWF (AND PREVIOUS GFS RUNS) THROUGH THE 4TH.

THUS...THOUGH AN OVERALL COOLING TREND IS EXPECTED WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY...FORECAST LEANS AWAY FROM THE MORE SIGNIFICANT CANADIAN AIR
INTRUSION ADVERTISED BY THE GFS BY THE 4TH.  THERE IS MODERATE
CONFIDENCE IN A COUPLE OF `RIDGE RIDERS` THAT WILL TRAVEL AROUND THE
NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER HIGH ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...BRINGING CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN MTNS...BIGHORN
BASIN/JOHNSON COUNTY.

ECMWF SHOWS A DRIER AND WARMER WNW FLOW ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY
THROUGH THE 4TH WHILE GFS SHOWS A MORE ACTIVE NW FLOW. FORECAST
KEEPS ISOLATED ACTIVITY AROUND PERIPHERY A MORE DOMINANT UPPER
HIGH...ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST THURSDAY THROUGH THE FOURTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD DEVELOP
OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT FOOTHILLS BEFORE
QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS ISOLATED CONVECTION
APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND SOUTHERN WIND RIVER
MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE ANY TS MENTION
AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO BE VFR THROUGH
THE PERIOD...WITH MAINLY LIGHT WINDS. THE EXCEPTION WOULD BE NEAR
ANY THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE MAIN HAZARD BEING STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL INTRODUCE
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. DRY OVERNIGHT
PERIODS WITH AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE THE PATTERN
FOR THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH
PRESSURE. TEMPERATURES WILL WARM UNDER THE PRESENCE OF THE
RIDGE...WITH SOME AREAS APPROACHING 100 DEGREES BY SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. DAYTIME HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE AS WELL...THOUGH WIND IS
GENERALLY EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOWER THAN CRITICAL THRESHOLDS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM





000
FXUS65 KRIW 270529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
POTENTIALLY MOVE A FEW STORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND
RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST...AND A FEW AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
AREAS IN THE BIGHORN BASIN COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST 100S OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL WORKING OUT THE WESTERN PUSH
OF THE RIDGE STARTING TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TO BACK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVEN COOLER TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO
PERSIST DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ALSO
LOOKING TO BE IN STORE. ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE THE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. AS MENTIONED THE
CURRENT RIDGE SHIFTS WEST...AND WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WITH DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...FUELS COULD DRY QUICKLY...AND THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...AND CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR ANY FIRE OR BURN NOTICES...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SKC AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND
SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE
ANY TS MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  MIXING HEIGHTS
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE
DISPERSAL EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER





000
FXUS65 KRIW 270529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1129 PM MDT FRI JUN 26 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

LINGERING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET
SATURDAY EVENING. A FEW STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS. SIMILAR SETUP IS EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY...WITH SOME
LIMITED MOISTURE RIDING OVER THE RIDGE CAUSING A FEW ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN THUNDERSTORMS. ENOUGH INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL EXIST TO
POTENTIALLY MOVE A FEW STORMS INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WIND
RIVER AND BIGHORN BASINS SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...WITH
ISOLATED COVERAGE AT BEST...AND A FEW AREAS OF GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.
MONDAY STILL LOOKS TO BE THE HOTTEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. 700
MB TEMPS STILL LOOK TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER TEENS...WHICH
TRANSLATES TO MID TO UPPER 90S ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
AREAS IN THE BIGHORN BASIN COULD EVEN SEE THE FIRST 100S OF THE
YEAR. ISOLATED MOUNTAIN STORMS WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE MONDAY. A WEAK
WAVE WILL ATTEMPT TO RIDE OVER THE RIDGE MONDAY EVENING...WHICH
COULD ALLOW FOR A FEW ISOLATED STORMS ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS.

TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY...MODELS STILL WORKING OUT THE WESTERN PUSH
OF THE RIDGE STARTING TUESDAY...WHICH WOULD ALLOW THE FIRST OF A
SERIES OF WEAK COLD FRONTS TO BACK THEIR WAY INTO THE REGION.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH
THURSDAY...WITH A SLIGHT COOL DOWN TO NEAR NORMAL TEMPS. MODELS ARE
STARTING TO COME TOGETHER ON A SLIGHTLY STRONGER FRONT FOR
FRIDAY...BRINGING MORE WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...AND
EVEN COOLER TEMPS. GENERALLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW THEN LOOKS TO
PERSIST DURING THE 4TH OF JULY WEEKEND...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPS ALSO
LOOKING TO BE IN STORE. ONE OTHER CONCERN FOR TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
WILL BE THE RETURN OF ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER DANGER. AS MENTIONED THE
CURRENT RIDGE SHIFTS WEST...AND WITH SEVERAL DISTURBANCE PUSHING
ACROSS THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS...AN INCREASE PRESSURE
GRADIENT COULD PROVIDE SOME GUSTY WINDS AT TIMES. WITH DRY AND HOT
CONDITIONS THIS WEEKEND...FUELS COULD DRY QUICKLY...AND THOSE WITH
OUTDOOR PLANS SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION...AND CHECK WITH LOCAL
OFFICIALS FOR ANY FIRE OR BURN NOTICES...THROUGH THE HOLIDAY
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SKC AND LIGHT WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY.

ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING (21Z-03Z) THUNDERSTORMS COULD THEN
DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO ADJACENT
FOOTHILLS BEFORE QUICKLY DISSIPATING. THE BEST SHOT FOR THIS
ISOLATED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND
SOUTHERN WIND RIVER MTS. THE MAIN HAZARD FROM THIS ACTIVITY WILL BE
STRONG OUTFLOW WINDS. THE LIMITED COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS PRECLUDE
ANY TS MENTION AT ANY TERMINAL FOR NOW.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE AS A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES.
TEMPERATURES WILL WARM. THE FLOW WILL BE RATHER DRY BUT WILL
COMBINE WITH DAYTIME HEATING FOR ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN THE TEENS...WITH SLIGHTLY
HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY TO THE NORTH AND EAST.  MIXING HEIGHTS
AND TRANSPORT WINDS WILL COMBINE FOR VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT SMOKE
DISPERSAL EARLY THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER




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