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000
FXUS65 KRIW 012118
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
318 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE...AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER SOME WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY AS SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BIT
MORE THAN OTHERS. WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI`S AROUND ZERO IN THE SW HALF
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS ALONG A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE FRONT PUSHING WWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80
CORRIDOR SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FARSON TO RKS VICINITY CONVERGENCE
AXIS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES SE AND IS REPLACED BY A
FLAT RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH A SPEED MAX PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH. LEE TROUGHING...RIGHT
FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL GAP FLOW ADDS UP TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WLY WINDS ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DECENT AHEAD OF A
MUCH MORE UNSETTLED EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS CHANGE
COMES FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW WHICH SLOWLY CHUGS EWD. THE FIRST PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON MONDAY. TURNING COOLER TO
COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AT TIMES AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST BECOMING MORE SNOW MONDAY. PCPN LOOKS
LIMITED EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TIMING AND DETAILS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL GAP
BETWEEN THIS MONDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE. TUESDAY MAY BE THE
TRANSITION DAY BEFORE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLE ON WHETHER THIS IS MORE ONE TROUGH OR TWO
TROUGHS WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN. THE GFS SHOWS THIS WED SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM ASIA AND BEING THE KICKER FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AS THE LATE TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS TIMING
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO RETURN AFTER
18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH INCREASED TURBULENCE
ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
RETURN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS KEEPING GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM....AND WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






000
FXUS65 KRIW 012118
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
318 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE...AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER SOME WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY AS SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BIT
MORE THAN OTHERS. WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI`S AROUND ZERO IN THE SW HALF
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS ALONG A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE FRONT PUSHING WWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80
CORRIDOR SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FARSON TO RKS VICINITY CONVERGENCE
AXIS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES SE AND IS REPLACED BY A
FLAT RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH A SPEED MAX PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH. LEE TROUGHING...RIGHT
FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL GAP FLOW ADDS UP TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WLY WINDS ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DECENT AHEAD OF A
MUCH MORE UNSETTLED EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS CHANGE
COMES FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW WHICH SLOWLY CHUGS EWD. THE FIRST PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON MONDAY. TURNING COOLER TO
COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AT TIMES AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST BECOMING MORE SNOW MONDAY. PCPN LOOKS
LIMITED EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TIMING AND DETAILS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL GAP
BETWEEN THIS MONDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE. TUESDAY MAY BE THE
TRANSITION DAY BEFORE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLE ON WHETHER THIS IS MORE ONE TROUGH OR TWO
TROUGHS WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN. THE GFS SHOWS THIS WED SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM ASIA AND BEING THE KICKER FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AS THE LATE TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS TIMING
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO RETURN AFTER
18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH INCREASED TURBULENCE
ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
RETURN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS KEEPING GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM....AND WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 012118
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
318 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE...AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER SOME WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY AS SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BIT
MORE THAN OTHERS. WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI`S AROUND ZERO IN THE SW HALF
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS ALONG A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE FRONT PUSHING WWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80
CORRIDOR SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FARSON TO RKS VICINITY CONVERGENCE
AXIS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES SE AND IS REPLACED BY A
FLAT RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH A SPEED MAX PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH. LEE TROUGHING...RIGHT
FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL GAP FLOW ADDS UP TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WLY WINDS ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DECENT AHEAD OF A
MUCH MORE UNSETTLED EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS CHANGE
COMES FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW WHICH SLOWLY CHUGS EWD. THE FIRST PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON MONDAY. TURNING COOLER TO
COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AT TIMES AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST BECOMING MORE SNOW MONDAY. PCPN LOOKS
LIMITED EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TIMING AND DETAILS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL GAP
BETWEEN THIS MONDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE. TUESDAY MAY BE THE
TRANSITION DAY BEFORE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLE ON WHETHER THIS IS MORE ONE TROUGH OR TWO
TROUGHS WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN. THE GFS SHOWS THIS WED SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM ASIA AND BEING THE KICKER FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AS THE LATE TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS TIMING
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO RETURN AFTER
18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH INCREASED TURBULENCE
ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
RETURN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS KEEPING GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM....AND WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 012118
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
318 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE THIS EVENING...ESPECIALLY
OVER WESTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING. A COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO WORK
ITS WAY THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA...LEAVING COOLER TEMPERATURES IN
ITS WAKE...AS WELL AS SOME GUSTY WINDS AND SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY.

SNOWFALL HAS ALREADY FALLEN OVER SOME WESTERN MOUNTAINS...AND
ACTIVITY WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN COOL ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN RESPONSE TO THIS SYSTEM.
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY...WITH MODELS
SHOWING DECENT INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LEAVE SNOW
AMOUNTS MORE DIFFICULT TO SPECIFY AS SOME STORMS MAY PRODUCE A BIT
MORE THAN OTHERS. WIDESPREAD GENERALLY LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED.


.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER TROUGH IS SWINGING SE ACROSS THE AREA TO START THIS PERIOD
WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND LI`S AROUND ZERO IN THE SW HALF
PRODUCING QUITE A BIT OF SNOW SHOWERS AROUND AND DOWNWIND OF THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER AREA TO WATCH IS ALONG A POTENTIAL CONVERGENCE
BOUNDARY BETWEEN THE FRONT PUSHING WWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80
CORRIDOR SETTING UP THE POTENTIAL FARSON TO RKS VICINITY CONVERGENCE
AXIS RESULTING IN ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS. CONDITIONS GRADUALLY
IMPROVE LATER THURSDAY NIGHT AS SYSTEM MOVES SE AND IS REPLACED BY A
FLAT RIDGE. RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVERHEAD LATE FRIDAY NIGHT OR SATURDAY
WITH A SPEED MAX PASSING BY JUST TO THE NORTH. LEE TROUGHING...RIGHT
FRONT QUAD DYNAMICS AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL GAP FLOW ADDS UP TO
MODERATE TO STRONG WLY WINDS ACROSS THE CODY FOOTHILLS FRIDAY NIGHT
INTO EARLY SATURDAY. MOST OF THE WEEKEND LOOKS DECENT AHEAD OF A
MUCH MORE UNSETTLED EARLY WEEK PERIOD. THE BEGINNINGS OF THIS CHANGE
COMES FROM THE ALEUTIAN LOW WHICH SLOWLY CHUGS EWD. THE FIRST PIECE
OF ENERGY MAY MOVE INTO THE WEST AS EARLY AS SUNDAY WITH THE
MAJORITY OF THE TROUGH SWINGING THROUGH ON MONDAY. TURNING COOLER TO
COLDER WITH MOUNTAIN SNOWFALL AT TIMES AND SOME MIXED PCPN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE WEST BECOMING MORE SNOW MONDAY. PCPN LOOKS
LIMITED EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH OPEN WAVE NATURE OF THIS SYSTEM.
TIMING AND DETAILS HAVE CHANGED SINCE YESTERDAY WITH POTENTIAL GAP
BETWEEN THIS MONDAY SYSTEM AND THE NEXT ONE. TUESDAY MAY BE THE
TRANSITION DAY BEFORE NEXT TROUGH DIGS INTO TUE NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY. MODELS STRUGGLE ON WHETHER THIS IS MORE ONE TROUGH OR TWO
TROUGHS WITH A BREAK IN BETWEEN. THE GFS SHOWS THIS WED SYSTEM
ORIGINATING FROM ASIA AND BEING THE KICKER FOR THE MONDAY SYSTEM.
THE NEW ECMWF IS MUCH WEAKER WITH THE FIRST SYSTEM AS THE LATE TUE
THROUGH WEDNESDAY SYSTEM BECOMES THE MAIN UPPER TROUGH WITH MINIMAL
IMPACT FROM THE MONDAY SYSTEM. CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW WITH THE
DETAILS FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRINGING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE OVERNIGHT
IN RESPONSE TO THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL INCREASE
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY TO INCLUDE MORE PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING. VCSH HAS BEEN INCLUDED AT MANY OF THE TERMINALS AS TIMING
IS DIFFICULT TO PIN DOWN. SOME GUSTY WIND WILL ALSO RETURN AFTER
18Z...THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS IN PAST DAYS.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO THE
COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE. GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN...ALONG WITH SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
POSSIBLE IN SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE
POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH INCREASED TURBULENCE
ALSO POSSIBLE. NORTHWESTERN WYOMING WILL BEGIN TO SEE SOME
CLEARING AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH CONVECTIVE SHOWERS WILL
RETURN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. ANY SHOWER DEVELOPMENT MAY RESULT
ADDITIONAL PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE PASSAGE OF A COLD FRONT IS KEEPING GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING THIS EVENING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL
ALSO REMAIN FROM THIS SYSTEM....AND WILL SPREAD TO INCLUDE THE
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR THURSDAY AFTERNOON. COOLER
TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED HUMIDITY WILL BE EXPECTED WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WITH HIGH PRESSURE EXPECTED TO BEGIN BUILDING BACK OVER
THE AREA BY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






000
FXUS65 KRIW 011811
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1211 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARM DRY RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLOWING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS PUSHING ALONG
A COLD FRONT WITH IT...A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT AS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL HOWEVER
PUSH COLDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR FIRE WEATHER...THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT BUT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN NATRONA
COUNTY AND INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN BEFORE THE BRISK WESTERLIES
ENGAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION FROM THE DRIER...WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...PREVENTING EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM RETURNING TO THE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
MORE CRITICAL FUELS.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING ALONG WITH
IT...THAT WILL BE RECEIVED INTO A MORE WELCOMING COOL ENVIRONMENT
SEEDED BY TODAY`S SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME BETTER SUPPORT AND
STRONGER QG FORCING ALONG WITH IT. PREVIOUS RUNS TRIED TO TAKE MOST
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE
TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A LONGER
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN ADDITION TO
MORE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT MUCH STRONGER BUT DEFINITELY
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WILL NO DOUBT ENHANCE THE
RAIN AND SNOWFALL IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOME TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND ALONG THE
CODY FOOTHILLS AS WE GET INTO THE DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BACKS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FLAT
RIDGE TRANSLATING THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  ECMWF EJECTS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY THAT
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS
SHEARS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPS WYOMING IN WARM
SECTOR.  ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST KEEPS
LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WILL PROGRESS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...RACING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRAY
FURTHER AWAY FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS BY MONDAY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES MUCH LOWER AT THIS
POINT.   THE BROADER PICTURE SHOWS SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTO
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE.   UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW HEADING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...WHICH WOULD TAKE MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
INCREASED TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTY
WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT....ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN MORE FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXCELLENT MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL
BASINS AND ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD
SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 011811
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1211 PM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARM DRY RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLOWING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS PUSHING ALONG
A COLD FRONT WITH IT...A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT AS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL HOWEVER
PUSH COLDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR FIRE WEATHER...THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT BUT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN NATRONA
COUNTY AND INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN BEFORE THE BRISK WESTERLIES
ENGAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION FROM THE DRIER...WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...PREVENTING EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM RETURNING TO THE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
MORE CRITICAL FUELS.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING ALONG WITH
IT...THAT WILL BE RECEIVED INTO A MORE WELCOMING COOL ENVIRONMENT
SEEDED BY TODAY`S SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME BETTER SUPPORT AND
STRONGER QG FORCING ALONG WITH IT. PREVIOUS RUNS TRIED TO TAKE MOST
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE
TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A LONGER
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN ADDITION TO
MORE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT MUCH STRONGER BUT DEFINITELY
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WILL NO DOUBT ENHANCE THE
RAIN AND SNOWFALL IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOME TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND ALONG THE
CODY FOOTHILLS AS WE GET INTO THE DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BACKS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FLAT
RIDGE TRANSLATING THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  ECMWF EJECTS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY THAT
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS
SHEARS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPS WYOMING IN WARM
SECTOR.  ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST KEEPS
LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WILL PROGRESS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...RACING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRAY
FURTHER AWAY FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS BY MONDAY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES MUCH LOWER AT THIS
POINT.   THE BROADER PICTURE SHOWS SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTO
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE.   UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW HEADING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...WHICH WOULD TAKE MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...THOUGH
SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE THROUGH 03Z FOR THE IMPACTED
CENTRAL TERMINALS INCLUDING KRIW...KLND...AND KCOD. A FEW SHOWERS
MAY BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL WYOMING BRING BRIEF PERIODS
OF MVFR CONDITIONS. CLOUD COVER WILL LOWER AFTER 00Z THIS EVENING
AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASING CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVER THE AREA TODAY AS A COLD
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA. GUSTY WIND WILL ACCOMPANY THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE...ALONG WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY. SHOWERS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN WYOMING THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD... WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE DURING THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
INCREASED TURBULENCE ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTY
WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT....ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN MORE FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXCELLENT MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL
BASINS AND ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD
SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 010937
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
337 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARM DRY RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLOWING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS PUSHING ALONG
A COLD FRONT WITH IT...A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT AS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL HOWEVER
PUSH COLDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR FIRE WEATHER...THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT BUT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN NATRONA
COUNTY AND INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN BEFORE THE BRISK WESTERLIES
ENGAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION FROM THE DRIER...WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...PREVENTING EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM RETURNING TO THE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
MORE CRITICAL FUELS.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING ALONG WITH
IT...THAT WILL BE RECEIVED INTO A MORE WELCOMING COOL ENVIRONMENT
SEEDED BY TODAY`S SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME BETTER SUPPORT AND
STRONGER QG FORCING ALONG WITH IT. PREVIOUS RUNS TRIED TO TAKE MOST
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE
TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A LONGER
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN ADDITION TO
MORE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT MUCH STRONGER BUT DEFINITELY
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WILL NO DOUBT ENHANCE THE
RAIN AND SNOWFALL IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOME TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND ALONG THE
CODY FOOTHILLS AS WE GET INTO THE DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BACKS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FLAT
RIDGE TRANSLATING THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  ECMWF EJECTS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY THAT
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS
SHEARS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPS WYOMING IN WARM
SECTOR.  ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST KEEPS
LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WILL PROGRESS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...RACING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRAY
FURTHER AWAY FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS BY MONDAY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES MUCH LOWER AT THIS
POINT.   THE BROADER PICTURE SHOWS SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTO
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE.   UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW HEADING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...WHICH WOULD TAKE MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS...KCOD WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS DUE TO POSSIBLE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 02Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTY
WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT....ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN MORE FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXCELLENT MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL
BASINS AND ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD
SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 010937
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
337 AM MDT WED APR 1 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARM DRY RIDGE THAT HAS BEEN OVER THE AREA FOR THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IS BEING PUSHED EASTWARD BY A SHORT WAVE TROUGH PLOWING INTO
WESTERN MONTANA AND WYOMING EARLY THIS MORNING. IT IS PUSHING ALONG
A COLD FRONT WITH IT...A RATHER DRY COLD FRONT AS NOT MUCH MOISTURE
OR UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT IS AVAILABLE TO WORK WITH. IT WILL HOWEVER
PUSH COLDER TEMPERATURES...INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND A CHANCE FOR
PRECIPITATION IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH PERHAPS A FEW SHOWERS AND EVEN A
THUNDERSTORM OR TWO MAKING IT INTO THE FOOTHILLS ALONG AND EAST OF
THE DIVIDE TODAY. MORE IMPORTANTLY FOR FIRE WEATHER...THE FRONT WILL
LEAD TO A WIND SHIFT BUT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITIES AND LOWER
TEMPERATURES. THE FRONT WILL LIKELY MAKE IT TO SOUTHERN NATRONA
COUNTY AND INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN BEFORE THE BRISK WESTERLIES
ENGAGE ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS IS IMPORTANT BECAUSE THE FRONT WILL
PROVIDE SOME PROTECTION FROM THE DRIER...WARMER AND WINDIER
CONDITIONS TO THE SOUTH...PREVENTING EXTREMELY CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS FROM RETURNING TO THE AREAS ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING WITH
MORE CRITICAL FUELS.

THERE WILL BE A BIT OF A BREAK TONIGHT AS THE NEXT TROUGH DIGS TO
OUR WEST. THIS SYSTEM WILL HAVE ANOTHER COLD FRONT COMING ALONG WITH
IT...THAT WILL BE RECEIVED INTO A MORE WELCOMING COOL ENVIRONMENT
SEEDED BY TODAY`S SYSTEM. IT WILL ALSO HAVE SOME BETTER SUPPORT AND
STRONGER QG FORCING ALONG WITH IT. PREVIOUS RUNS TRIED TO TAKE MOST
OF THE BETTER DYNAMICS WELL TO THE SOUTH BUT IT LOOKS LIKE THEY ARE
TRENDING MORE NORTHWARD TODAY. THIS SYSTEM ALSO HAS COLDER AIR ALOFT
AND MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE FOR PRECIPITATION...ALONG WITH A LONGER
PERIOD OF UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE IN ADDITION TO
MORE ABUNDANT INSTABILITY...IT IS NOT MUCH STRONGER BUT DEFINITELY
MORE WIDESPREAD THAN TODAY`S SYSTEM. THIS WILL NO DOUBT ENHANCE THE
RAIN AND SNOWFALL IN SOME SPOTS ON THURSDAY WITH GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT
EXPECTED THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

SOME TEMPERATURE REBOUND ON FRIDAY WITH FLOW TURNING MORE WESTERLY
BY FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME STRONG WIND ALONG THE
CODY FOOTHILLS AS WE GET INTO THE DOWNWARD FORCING BEHIND THE
EXITING TROUGH.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL PREVAIL OVER THE WEEKEND BRINGING
MILD AND WINDY CONDITIONS ALONG WITH ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER
CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH.  SHOWERS AND POSSIBLY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS WILL TRACK ACROSS THE NORTHWEST AND FAR NORTH.

A COLD FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
BRINGING COOLER AND UNSETTLED WEATHER THROUGH MID-WEEK.

DISCUSSION...UPPER LOW MOVING INTO THE WESTERN GULF OF ALASKA EARLY
THIS MORNING WILL DIG DOWN OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST ON SATURDAY.
FLOW ACROSS THE WESTERN U.S. BACKS AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WITH FLAT
RIDGE TRANSLATING THE DIVIDE INTO THE HIGH PLAINS.  ECMWF EJECTS A
STRONG SHORTWAVE OVER THE RIDGE ACROSS MONTANA ON SATURDAY THAT
DRIVES A COLD FRONT SOUTH ACROSS WYOMING SATURDAY NIGHT.  THE GFS
SHEARS THIS SHORTWAVE OUT FURTHER NORTH AND KEEPS WYOMING IN WARM
SECTOR.  ENSEMBLE MEANS FAVOR THE GFS SOLUTION...SO FORECAST KEEPS
LOW POPS CONFINED TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY/SATURDAY NIGHT WHILE
WARM AND BREEZY/WINDY CONDITIONS PREVAIL EAST OF THE DIVIDE.  UPPER
TROUGH ALONG THE NW COAST WILL PROGRESS INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST
ON SUNDAY WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PUSH INTO WESTERN
WYOMING DURING THE AFTERNOON.  SHOWERS WILL INCREASE AHEAD OF THE
FRONT ACROSS THE WEST WITH POSSIBLY A FEW THUNDERSTORMS.  GFS IS ON
THE FAST SIDE OF GUIDANCE...RACING THE FRONT ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT...WHILE THE ECMWF DOES NOT BRING THE FRONT EAST OF THE DIVIDE
UNTIL MONDAY EVENING.  DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE BEGINS TO STRAY
FURTHER AWAY FROM ENSEMBLE MEANS BY MONDAY...SO FORECAST CONFIDENCE
IN TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES BECOMES MUCH LOWER AT THIS
POINT.   THE BROADER PICTURE SHOWS SLOW PROGRESSION OF UPPER TROUGH
ACROSS THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST/GREAT BASIN MONDAY AND TUESDAY...INTO
THE ROCKIES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.  SEVERAL SHORTWAVES
EJECTING OUT AHEAD OF MAIN TROUGH WILL BRING THE BEST CHANCES OF
SHOWERS TO THE WEST MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH MORE ISOLATED ACTIVITY
EAST OF THE DIVIDE.   UPPER TROUGH PASSAGE ON WEDNESDAY APPEARS TO
BE SPLIT WITH THE MAIN UPPER LOW HEADING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS
AREA...WHICH WOULD TAKE MOST PRECIPITATION SOUTH OF THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY
REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY
AFTER 18Z. WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR
CONDITIONS IN LOW CIGS...KCOD WILL STAND THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING
MVFR TO BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS DUE TO POSSIBLE
RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 02Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...
AFFECTING AREAS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE WITH INCREASED RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND COOLER TEMPERATURES...AS WELL AS INCREASED CLOUD COVER
AND A CHANCE FOR RAIN AND SNOW...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE
MAIN HAZARD WITH THIS FRONT WILL BE THE WIND SHIFT AND SOME GUSTY
WIND ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT....ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN JOHNSON
COUNTY.

THE FRONT WILL ALSO BRING AN ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM OR TWO IN THE
NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND
MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD
SEE STEADY WEST TO NORTHWEST WINDS TODAY AT 15 TO 25 MPH WITH SOME
GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH IN MORE FAVORED AREAS...ESPECIALLY EARLY THIS
MORNING. EXCELLENT MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOST AREAS TODAY WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE MIXING HEIGHTS IN THE CENTRAL
BASINS AND ACROSS THE NORTH BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD
SMOKE DISPERSAL TODAY.

CHANCES FOR WETTING RAIN OR SNOW INCREASE DRAMATICALLY ON THURSDAY
AS A STRONGER SYSTEM MOVES THROUGH WITH DRYING EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.
ANOTHER FRONT COULD APPROACH LATE IN THE WEEKEND WITH POTENTIALLY
WIDESPREAD ELEVATED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ON
SUNDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 010502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED  SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CIGS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST...KCOD WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS AFTER 02Z
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN















000
FXUS65 KRIW 010502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED  SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CIGS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST...KCOD WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS AFTER 02Z
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN














000
FXUS65 KRIW 010502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED  SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CIGS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST...KCOD WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS AFTER 02Z
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN















000
FXUS65 KRIW 010502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1102 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 15Z AHEAD
OF ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND ASSOCIATED  SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL
PRODUCE SCATTERED RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ALONG AND NORTH OF VICINITY KJAC - KWRL. OVER THE NORTHERN AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN...ESPECIALLY AFTER 18Z.
WHILE KCOD...KJAC...AND KWRL MAY ALL EXPERIENCE MVFR CONDITIONS IN
LOW CIGS DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE FORECAST...KCOD WILL STAND
THE BEST CHANCE OF SEEING MVFR IN REDUCED VIS AND CIGS AFTER 02Z
THURSDAY DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF SNOW SHOWERS NEAR THE END OF THE
FCST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

OTHERWISE...A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE EXPECTED WITH
THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE MIXING BUT MOST
AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN














000
FXUS65 KRIW 010345
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
944 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE NORTH.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.  MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITYAGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXING BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN











000
FXUS65 KRIW 010345
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
944 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES WILL
TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN AND GREEN
RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND NORTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON WEDNESDAY
WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE NORTH.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.  MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE WIND RIVER BASIN...SWEETWATER...LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES
WILL EXPERIENCE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITYAGAIN
TODAY...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER VALUES SHOULD REMAIN JUST ABOVE CRITICAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXING BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.


&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN












000
FXUS65 KRIW 312058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE NORTH.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.  MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXING BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

PLEASE NOTE THAT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT...AFTERNOON
DAF AND FWF FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WERE PRODUCED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








000
FXUS65 KRIW 312058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE NORTH.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.  MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXING BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

PLEASE NOTE THAT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT...AFTERNOON
DAF AND FWF FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WERE PRODUCED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








000
FXUS65 KRIW 312058
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
258 PM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK RIPPLE OUT BETWEEN 140W AND 150/46-50N BECOMES OUR NEXT TROUGH
WHICH DIGS INTO NRN CA AT THE START OF THIS PERIOD...THEN INTO THE
SRN UT/4-CORNERS REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH GOOD COLD
CORE ALOFT MOVING INTO MUCH OF THE AREA. FLOW BEGINS TO BEND OVER TO
A MORE NLY OR BRIEFLY NELY FLOW THURSDAY WITH SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES
ON THE DETAILS. NLY FRONT SAGGING SWD WED NGT WILL HAVE TO BE
WATCHED FOR ANY SNOW SHOWERS ALONG IT...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
FOOTHILLS FROM CODY SWD. THE NAM IS MORE BULLISH ON THIS SCENARIO.
THE GFS KEEPS THE ACTIVITY GENERALLY IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN WED NGT.
ON THURSDAY...FRONT PUSHES SWD INTO THE RED DESERT/I80 CORRIDOR WITH
POTENTIAL FARSON/RKS CONVERGENCE ZONE WITH NW FLOW UPPER GREEN WINDS
MEETING THE NE FRONTAL WINDS. BUMPED UP POPS SOME ALONG THIS AREA
THURSDAY. OTHERWISE...VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES (8.5C/KM) AND LI`S
AROUND ZERO EXPECTED THURSDAY WITH DEVELOPING HIGHER TERRAIN SNOW
SHOWERS INCREASING AND TRYING TO SPREAD SSEWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS.
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT LATER THURSDAY NIGHT. COLD START FRIDAY MORNING
WITH TEENS TO LOWER 20S EAST AND SINGLE DIGITS AND SOME TEENS WEST.
SLOW RECOVERY FRIDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE MID 40S TO LOWER 50S EAST AND
30S TO LOWER 40S WEST WITH MID 20S TO MID 30S IN THE HIGH COUNTRY.
FLOW QUICKLY FLATTENS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT FOR INCREASING
MTN WIND WITH POTENTIAL FOR STRONG CODY FOOTHILL WINDS. SHORTWAVE
THEN PASSES BY TO THE NORTH SATURDAY LEADING TO A SHALLOW FRONT
PUSHING SWD ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SATURDAY NIGHT. LOOKS
DRY BUT THIS MAY BE A BOUNDARY FOR SOME LGT PCPN AS IT LIFTS NWD
SUNDAY AHEAD OF OUR DEVELOPING PACNW TROUGH. ISENTROPIC LIFT/QG
FORCING MAY AID IN SOME LGT PCPN...ESPECIALLY AROUND THE HIGHER
TERRAIN/MTNS IN THE NRN ZONES. DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AHEAD OF THIS NEXT THROUGH WILL USHER IN STRONG STRONG AND
GUSTY WINDS. FIRST SHORTWAVE SHOOTS EWD OUT OF THE MAIN TROUGH
SUNDAY NIGHT/MON TO OUR NORTH WITH PACIFIC TYPE FRONT PUSHING EWD
ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST WIND. POTENTIALLY HIGH WIND ON
MONDAY FROM THE I80 CORRIDOR TO CASPER WITH QUITE A BIT OF WIND IN
MOST PLACES. GOOD SHOT OF SNOW OUT WEST WITH THIS WAVE ON MON WITH
UNSETTLED CONDITIONS THROUGH TUESDAY AND THE REST OF THE TROUGH
OPENS UP AND PASSES THROUGH. OVERALL...A COLD...WINDY AND UNSETTLED
PERIOD EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AND THE NORTH.  OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN
MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER
SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE TERRAIN.  MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR
KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING
BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. PARTIAL CLEARING IS EXPECTED
20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

RED FLAG WARNING FOR STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR FREMONT...
NATRONA AND JOHNSON COUNTIES.  THE BIGHORN BASIN...SWEETWATER...
LINCOLN AND SUBLETTE COUNTIES WILL EXPERIENCE THE STRONG GUSTY
WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY...BUT FUELS HAVE NOT BEEN RATED
AS CRITICAL IN THESE AREAS.

A COLD FRONT WILL BRING INCREASING MOUNTAIN SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE NORTH THIS EVENING. SHOWERS WILL LINGER
THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS ABOVE 8500 FEET COULD SEE
ACCUMULATIONS OF 1 TO 4 INCHES OF WET HEAVY SNOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL TURN MUCH COLDER BEHIND THE COLD FRONT WITH HIGHER RELATIVE
HUMIDITY AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTHWEST. THE WIND RIVER BASIN
AND GREEN RIVER BASIN AND MAINLY THE NORTHERN BIGHORN BASIN AND
NORTHERN JOHNSON COUNTY SHOULD SEE QUITE STRONG NORTHWEST WINDS ON
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME GUSTS OF 40 TO 50 MPH. STRONG MIXING CAN BE
EXPECTED WITH THE FRONTAL INVERSION LIMITING THE DEPTH OF THE
MIXING BUT MOST AREAS WILL HAVE FAIR TO GOOD SMOKE DISPERSAL.

PLEASE NOTE THAT WITH A RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT...AFTERNOON
DAF AND FWF FIRE WEATHER FORECASTS WERE PRODUCED THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281-283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









000
FXUS65 KRIW 311723
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER
00Z. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE
TERRAIN BY 00Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND
KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 311723
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER
00Z. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE
TERRAIN BY 00Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND
KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 311723
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER
00Z. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE
TERRAIN BY 00Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND
KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 311723
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE RAIN
AND SNOW SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER
00Z. OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS
AND VISIBILITY REDUCED IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WILL OBSCURE
TERRAIN BY 00Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND
KRKS...WILL CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS.

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS








000
FXUS65 KRIW 310939
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
339 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. SOME TIME
AFTER 06Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL
CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS
REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 310939
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
339 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. SOME TIME
AFTER 06Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL
CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS
REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 310939
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
339 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. SOME TIME
AFTER 06Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL
CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS
REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 310939
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
339 AM MDT TUE MAR 31 2015

.SHORT TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WE LOOK TO BE ENTERING A MORE ACTIVE PERIOD OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
AS FOR TODAY...IT LOOKS LIKE WE WILL HAVE ONE MORE WARM
DAY...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM
THE NORTHWEST LOOKS TO TIGHTEN THE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE
REGION. THIS WILL INCREASE WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. AT THIS
TIME...700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO NOT LOOK SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT ANY WIND
HIGHLIGHTS. HOWEVER...IT WILL BE ENOUGH TO RAISE FIRE DANGER ACROSS
THE AREA. A RED FLAG WARNING WAS ISSUED FOR LOWER ELEVATION ZONES
THAT ARE CRITICAL AND THAT WILL BE CONTINUED THROUGH THE DAY TODAY.
TEMPERATURES IN MANY OF THE LOWER ELEVATION LOCATIONS LOOK TO RISE
WELL INTO THE 70S WITH SOME RECORD HIGHS POSSIBLE. MEANWHILE...IN
THE WEST...SOME MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE AREA COULD BRING A FEW
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. HOWEVER...THE MODELS HAVE REALLY BACKED
OFF ON COVERAGE SO MOST POPS WERE KEPT IN THE SLIGHT CATEGORY. MOST
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOULD STAY DRY WITH
DOWNSLOPING FLOW WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE BIG HORN RANGE. AT NIGHT
A FEW SHOWERS COULD DEVELOP ACROSS FAR EASTERN AREAS WITH A BIT OF
JET DYNAMICS BUT NOTHING HEAVY. A BIT MORE MOISTURE COULD PUSH INTO
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING LATER TUESDAY NIGHT BUT THE MODELS ARE SPLIT ON
AMOUNTS. CONTINUITY LOOKED REASONABLE THOUGH SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.

THE COLD FRONT THEN DROPS SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY
AND BRINGS AN END TO THE WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WE HAVE BEEN
EXPERIENCING FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY WILL
BE CLOSER TO NORMAL...BUT FEEL COLDER SINCE MANY HAVE ADJUSTED TO
THE WARMER WEATHER. GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS
WELL...ESPECIALLY AREAS PRONE TO STRONGER WINDS WITH NO FLOW LIKE
PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN AND JOHNSON COUNTY. A BIT OF ENERGY
LINGERING OVER THE NORTHWEST WILL ALSO KEEP SHOWER GOING OVER
NORTHWESTERN WYOMING.

THE BIG QUESTION IS FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY FOR THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME UPLSOPE SNOW ACROSS AREAS FAVORED WITH
NORTHEASTERLY FLOW. THERE IS NOW SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH THE MODELS.
THE EUROPEAN CONTINUES TO THE THE MOST BULLISH...ESPECIALLY DURING
THE DAY ON THURSDAY WITH A PERIOD OF POSSIBLY ACCUMULATING SNOW. HOW
MUCH STICKS...ESPECIALLY ON ROADS IS STILL IN DOUBT GIVEN THE WARM
GROUND TEMPERATURES THOUGH. MEANWHILE...THE NAM HAS MORE OF AN
UNSTABLE NORTHWEST FLOW SOLUTION THAT WOULD RESULT IN MORE BANDED
SHOWERS THAT ARE HARDER TO PINPOINT. THE GFS IS MORE IN THE MIDDLE
WITH MORE OF A NORTHERLY FLOW AND A BIT MORE QPF. GIVEN THE
DIFFERENCE IN THE MODELS...AT THIS TIME CONTINUITY LOOKED AS GOOD AS
ANYTHING SO WE LEFT THINGS ALONE FOR THE MOST PART.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE ENDING FRIDAY MORNING WITH
DECREASING CLOUDS AND ONLY ISOLATED MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE
AFTERNOON. SEASONAL HIGH TEMPS EXPECTED FRIDAY. SATURDAY LOOKS DRY
AND MILDER WITH BREEZY AREAS IN THE AFTERNOON. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR
NW WY AS SOME MOISTURE RESIDES THERE. ISOLATED SHOWERS FOR NW WY
SATURDAY NIGHT AND DRY ELSEWHERE. ON SUNDAY MORE MOISTURE HEADS
TOWARD NW WY ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL
SUFFICE FOR NOW. GFS MODEL STILL WANTS TO BRING IN A WEATHER SYSTEM
INTO THE NW U.S. ON SUNDAY AND THEN ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING IMPACT INTO NEXT TUE. THIS
WOULD LEAD TO UNSETTLED WEATHER IN THE NORTHWEST SUNDAY NIGHT AND
THEN ACROSS THE NORTH HALF OF THE STATE LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT. THE SOUTH HALF OF THE STATE WOULD SEE LESS ACTIVITY.
THEN LINGERING SHOWERS OVER THE NORTH ON TUESDAY. THE 00Z ECMWF
MODEL HAS NOW COME AROUND TO A SIMILAR SCENARIO TO THE GFS. IT IS A
LITTLE SLOWER WITH THE SPEED AS IT BRINGS ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS
INTO THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY. THEN THE ECMWF MODEL SWINGS THE
BULK OF THE WEATHER SYSTEM THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH A
BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS. I WILL KEEP SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE
WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED FOR THE FAR WEST VALLEYS SUNDAY. A
BETTER CHANCE OF PRECIP OVER THE WEST AND NORTH MONDAY INTO MONDAY
NIGHT. IF THE TIMING IS CORRECT...NEXT TUE WILL ALSO BE UNSETTLED
WITH AT LEAST SCATTERED MOUNTAIN SHOWERS AND ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. TEMPS ON SUNDAY WILL REMAIN MILD AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING SYSTEM WITH COOLER HIGHS NEXT MON AND TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. SOME TIME
AFTER 06Z...MOST TERMINALS EXCEPT FOR KBPI...KRIW...AND KRKS...WILL
CARRY VCSH THROUGH THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. ANY SHOWERS
REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

EXPECT ONE MORE DAY OF WELL ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH
GUSTY WINDS AND LOW HUMIDITY AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT. THIS
WILL LEAD TO DANGEROUS FIRE CONDITIONS IN AREAS WITH CRITICAL FUELS
AND AS A RESULT THE RED FLAG WARNINGS IN THOSE LOCATIONS WILL BE
CONTINUED. EVEN IN AREAS WHERE FUELS ARE CRITICAL...ELEVATED FIRE
DANGER WILL BE PRESENT...ESPECIALLY IN THE AFTERNOON. THERE SHOULD
BE SOME IMPROVEMENT ON WEDNESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 310505
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED OVER THE WIND CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING. WIND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
THRESHOLDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. THIS
COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED. PLEASE VISIT THE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. REGARDLESS TO
WARNING...ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL
WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS BEFORE IGNITING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS IS VERY
GOOD. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEING 10C OR MORE COOLER THAN TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHT
WORTHY...BUT COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN COUPLED WITH UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA REMAINING
TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW EMERGING
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z/FRI. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PERIOD OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. 700/500B LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C-8C/KM ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BASINS/VALLEYS THURSDAY IF THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS EARLY AND IS MODERATE-HEAVY IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THIS SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND UPSLOPE IS WEAK. THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE JUST A SHADE UNDER CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS
700MB TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY AROUND -6C TO -10C. 500MB COLD POOL
WILL PULL OUT FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY BRINGING TO AN END TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
BIGHORNS. HEIGHTS RISE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER REBOUND TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THAN
DIVERGE BEGINNING SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN-WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW REMAINING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THEREFORE...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER IN BRINGING THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP TO NORTHWEST WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. EITHER SOLUTION WILL STILL KEEP EASTER SUNDAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 50-60F ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE IN THE LATE DY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND FAR WEST WYOMING. EXTENDED PERIOD DISCUSSION FROM CPC INDICATES
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE FLATTER SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NORTHERN WFO NEIGHBORS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMMONLY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INT HE LOW TO MID TEENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FUELS ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE A DANGEROUS
COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS
TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED...WITH DETAILS INCLUDED IN THEIR APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL AREAS WHERE A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION
OF WIND AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EXIST...THOUGH FUELS ARE
NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. ANYONE PLANNING TO DO AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ON TUESDAY WILL WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST INFORMATION BEFORE IGNITING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 310505
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED OVER THE WIND CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING. WIND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
THRESHOLDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. THIS
COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED. PLEASE VISIT THE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. REGARDLESS TO
WARNING...ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL
WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS BEFORE IGNITING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS IS VERY
GOOD. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEING 10C OR MORE COOLER THAN TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHT
WORTHY...BUT COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN COUPLED WITH UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA REMAINING
TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW EMERGING
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z/FRI. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PERIOD OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. 700/500B LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C-8C/KM ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BASINS/VALLEYS THURSDAY IF THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS EARLY AND IS MODERATE-HEAVY IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THIS SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND UPSLOPE IS WEAK. THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE JUST A SHADE UNDER CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS
700MB TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY AROUND -6C TO -10C. 500MB COLD POOL
WILL PULL OUT FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY BRINGING TO AN END TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
BIGHORNS. HEIGHTS RISE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER REBOUND TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THAN
DIVERGE BEGINNING SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN-WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW REMAINING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THEREFORE...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER IN BRINGING THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP TO NORTHWEST WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. EITHER SOLUTION WILL STILL KEEP EASTER SUNDAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 50-60F ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE IN THE LATE DY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND FAR WEST WYOMING. EXTENDED PERIOD DISCUSSION FROM CPC INDICATES
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE FLATTER SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NORTHERN WFO NEIGHBORS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMMONLY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INT HE LOW TO MID TEENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FUELS ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE A DANGEROUS
COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS
TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED...WITH DETAILS INCLUDED IN THEIR APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL AREAS WHERE A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION
OF WIND AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EXIST...THOUGH FUELS ARE
NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. ANYONE PLANNING TO DO AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ON TUESDAY WILL WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST INFORMATION BEFORE IGNITING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 310505
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED OVER THE WIND CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING. WIND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
THRESHOLDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. THIS
COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED. PLEASE VISIT THE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. REGARDLESS TO
WARNING...ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL
WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS BEFORE IGNITING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS IS VERY
GOOD. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEING 10C OR MORE COOLER THAN TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHT
WORTHY...BUT COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN COUPLED WITH UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA REMAINING
TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW EMERGING
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z/FRI. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PERIOD OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. 700/500B LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C-8C/KM ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BASINS/VALLEYS THURSDAY IF THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS EARLY AND IS MODERATE-HEAVY IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THIS SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND UPSLOPE IS WEAK. THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE JUST A SHADE UNDER CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS
700MB TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY AROUND -6C TO -10C. 500MB COLD POOL
WILL PULL OUT FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY BRINGING TO AN END TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
BIGHORNS. HEIGHTS RISE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER REBOUND TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THAN
DIVERGE BEGINNING SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN-WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW REMAINING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THEREFORE...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER IN BRINGING THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP TO NORTHWEST WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. EITHER SOLUTION WILL STILL KEEP EASTER SUNDAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 50-60F ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE IN THE LATE DY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND FAR WEST WYOMING. EXTENDED PERIOD DISCUSSION FROM CPC INDICATES
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE FLATTER SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NORTHERN WFO NEIGHBORS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE TERMINAL SITES THROUGH AT LEAST
00Z WEDNESDAY AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND SURFACE FRONT
THAT WILL RACE THROUGH OVERNIGHT. THIS SYSTEM MAY INTRODUCE SOME
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL
DIVIDE AFTER 21Z TUESDAY...WITH BETTER COVERAGE AFTER 00Z. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING THE TERMINALS MAY BRING BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMMONLY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INT HE LOW TO MID TEENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FUELS ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE A DANGEROUS
COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS
TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED...WITH DETAILS INCLUDED IN THEIR APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL AREAS WHERE A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION
OF WIND AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EXIST...THOUGH FUELS ARE
NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. ANYONE PLANNING TO DO AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ON TUESDAY WILL WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST INFORMATION BEFORE IGNITING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 302133
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
333 PM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

JUST A FEW HIGH CLOUDS SKIRTING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON UNDER HIGH
PRESSURE. DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS
AS THE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED OVER THE AREA. GUSTY WINDS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH SOME
WEAKENING EXPECTED OVERNIGHT FOR MOST AREAS...THE EXCEPTION COULD
BE THE MOUNTAIN AREAS.

AN APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE CLOUD
COVER DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF TUESDAY. AS THIS SYSTEM
APPROACHES...STRONG WIND WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA...WITH SOME OF
THE STRONGEST WIND EXPECTED OVER THE WIND CORRIDOR OF SOUTHERN AND
CENTRAL WYOMING. WIND CURRENTLY LOOKS TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND
THRESHOLDS...BUT MAY NEED TO BE WATCHED. VERY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE. THIS
COMBINATION COULD RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR ACROSS THE
AREA...WITH SOME RED FLAG WARNINGS ISSUED. PLEASE VISIT THE FIRE
WEATHER PRODUCTS FOR MORE INFORMATION. REGARDLESS TO
WARNING...ELEVATED FIRE BEHAVIOR IS ANTICIPATED ACROSS MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA FOR TUESDAY. THOSE PLANNING AGRICULTURAL BURNS WILL
WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT FORECAST PRODUCTS BEFORE IGNITING.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY

MEDIUM RANGE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THE OVERALL
PATTERN EVOLUTION THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. DIFFERENCES DO EMERGE
AFTER THAT TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THE FIRST SEVERAL DAYS IS VERY
GOOD. COLD FRONT WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA
WEDNESDAY MORNING. MUCH COOLER AIR BEHIND THIS FRONT WITH 700MB
TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEING 10C OR MORE COOLER THAN TUESDAY. GUSTY
NORTHWEST WIND EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND ACROSS SOUTHWEST
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. DOES NOT LOOK LIKE IT WILL BE HIGHLIGHT
WORTHY...BUT COMBINATION OF COOLER TEMPERATURES AND WIND WILL MAKE
IT FEEL NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TUESDAY. TRAILING ENERGY BEHIND THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW IN SOUTHERN SASKATCHEWAN COUPLED WITH UNSTABLE
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL KEEP SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS THE
NORTHWEST AND BIGHORN MOUNTAINS. MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND TOWARD A
SOLUTION OF THE NEXT SHORTWAVE AND ASSOCIATED JET MAXIMA REMAINING
TO OUR SOUTH. BOTH THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE THE SURFACE LOW EMERGING
OVER THE OKLAHOMA PANHANDLE BY 00Z/FRI. THERE DOES APPEAR TO BE A
PERIOD OF WEAK UPSLOPE FLOW LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY
MORNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL ZONES. 700/500B LAPSE RATES AROUND
7C-8C/KM ALONG WITH SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ENOUGH TO
GENERATE SNOWFALL ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. THERE COULD BE SOME
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE BASINS/VALLEYS THURSDAY IF THE PRECIPITATION
STARTS EARLY AND IS MODERATE-HEAVY IN INTENSITY. RIGHT NOW...AM NOT
THAT IMPRESSED WITH WHAT THIS SYSTEM HAS TO OFFER AS BEST DYNAMICS
REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH AND UPSLOPE IS WEAK. THURSDAY DOES LOOK TO BE
THE COOLEST DAY BETWEEN NOW AND SUNDAY. RAIN/SNOW WILL DECREASE FROM
NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THURSDAY NIGHT AS SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT INTO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS. EXPECT A SLIGHT WARM-UP FRIDAY BUT TEMPERATURES
ARE LIKELY TO STILL BE JUST A SHADE UNDER CLIMATOLOGICAL NORMALS AS
700MB TEMPERATURES STILL ONLY AROUND -6C TO -10C. 500MB COLD POOL
WILL PULL OUT FRIDAY MORNING EFFECTIVELY BRINGING TO AN END TO
INSTABILITY SHOWERS WITH THE POSSIBLE EXCEPTION BEING IN THE
BIGHORNS. HEIGHTS RISE SATURDAY AND TEMPERATURES FURTHER REBOUND TO
AT OR ABOVE NORMAL AS UPPER FLOW BACKS TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. DRY
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. MODELS THAN
DIVERGE BEGINNING SUNDAY. ECMWF HAS MORE OF A PROGRESSIVE OPEN-WAVE
MOVING ONSHORE IN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...THE
ECMWF HAS A CLOSED LOW REMAINING OFF THE NORTHWEST COAST.
THEREFORE...THE GFS IS MORE BULLISH AND FASTER IN BRINGING THE
SHORTWAVE AND PRECIP TO NORTHWEST WYOMING LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT. EITHER SOLUTION WILL STILL KEEP EASTER SUNDAY A LITTLE WARMER
THAN AVERAGE WITH HIGHS 50-60F ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
DIFFERENCE WOULD BE IN THE LATE DY PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS NORTHWEST
AND FAR WEST WYOMING. EXTENDED PERIOD DISCUSSION FROM CPC INDICATES
LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION RATHER THAN THE FLATTER SOLUTION
OFFERED BY THE GFS. WITH MUCH UNCERTAINTY AND AFTER COLLABORATION
WITH NORTHERN WFO NEIGHBORS...HAVE TRENDED TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICAL
PRECIP CHANCES LATE SUNDAY...SUNDAY NIGHT...AND MONDAY ALONG WITH A
SLIGHT COOL DOWN FOR MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE AREA VFR THROUGH AROUND 15Z TUESDAY.
PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND WILL BE POSSIBLE. AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER OVER THE AREA AFTER 15Z...WITH
WIND INCREASING ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA. STRONG WIND WILL BE
FAIRLY COMMON AFTER 18Z TUESDAY. THIS SYSTEM MAY ALSO INTRODUCE
SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WEST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...WITH CONVERGE INCREASING AFTER 21Z. ANY
SHOWERS REACHING OVER THE TERMINALS WILL BRING BRIEF PERIODS OF
MVFR CONDITIONS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LEAVE DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE AREA THROUGH
TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE. THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WILL COMMONLY SEE RELATIVE HUMIDITY
INT HE LOW TO MID TEENS. ADDITIONALLY...THE APPROACHING WAVE OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL HELP TO INCREASE WIND ACROSS THE AREA ON
TUESDAY. CRITICAL FUELS ARE INDICATED OVER PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND
EASTERN WYOMING. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL SEE A DANGEROUS
COMBINATION OF WIND AND RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND CRITICALLY DRY FUELS
TO CREATE RED FLAG CONDITIONS. THESE WARNINGS HAVE BEEN
ISSUED...WITH DETAILS INCLUDED IN THEIR APPROPRIATE PRODUCTS.
HOWEVER...THERE ARE ADDITIONAL AREAS WHERE A HAZARDOUS COMBINATION
OF WIND AND DRY RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL EXIST...THOUGH FUELS ARE
NOT CRITICAL AT THIS TIME. ANYONE PLANNING TO DO AGRICULTURAL
BURNING ON TUESDAY WILL WANT TO REVIEW CURRENT CONDITIONS AND
FORECAST INFORMATION BEFORE IGNITING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ280-281.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT TUESDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






000
FXUS65 KRIW 301747
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1147 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER WIND EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
TIME FRAME OF THIS TAF SET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 301747
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1147 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER WIND EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
TIME FRAME OF THIS TAF SET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 301747
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1147 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER WIND EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
TIME FRAME OF THIS TAF SET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 301747
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1147 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR CONDITIONS ACROSS AREA TERMINALS
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO
MOVE IN AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...BUT ARE NOT ANTICIPATED TO HAVE A
SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPERATIONS. THE MAIN WEATHER CONCERN
THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY WILL BE THE GUSTY WINDS WHICH WILL BE PRESENT
THROUGH AROUND 04Z THIS EVENING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
AGAIN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY...WITH STRONGER WIND EXPECTED OUTSIDE THE
TIME FRAME OF THIS TAF SET.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 300936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS





000
FXUS65 KRIW 300936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 300936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT MON MAR 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE PERIOD ONCE AGAIN LOOKS TO START OUT QUIET. A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE WILL ONCE AGAIN BRING MAINLY QUIET WEATHER TO THE REGION
WITH ONLY SOME PASSING HIGH CLOUDS. THERE WILL BE A GUSTY BREEZE AT
TIMES AND AS A RESULT THERE COULD BE SOME FIRE DANGER. IT IS
BORDERLINE...BUT WE WILL LET THE RED FLAG WARNING RIDE FOR NOW
ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN...EVEN THOUGH IT WILL BE MAINLY FOR
WESTERN AREAS AND NOT RIVERTON OR LANDER.MAINLY DRY WEATHER SHOULD
HOLD THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING AS THE RIDGE HOLDS ON.

THINGS DO BECOME MORE UNSETTLED LATER IN THE PERIOD HOWEVER. SOME
MOISTURE MOVING TOWARD THE AREA AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
WILL MOVE INTO THE WEST ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON. THIS COULD BE ENOUGH
TO BRING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO WESTERN AREAS IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. CONTINUITY HAD THIS COVERED FAIRLY WELL SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES AT THIS TIME. MEANWHILE...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW EAST
OF THE DIVIDE WILL BRING ANOTHER VERY WARM DAY WITH SOME NEW RECORD
HIGHS POSSIBLY BEING SET. AT THIS TIME...THE 700 MILLIBAR WINDS DO
NOT LOOK STRONG ENOUGH TO WARRANT HIGH WIND HIGHLIGHTS EXCEPT FOR
THE MAYBE THE FAVORED AREAS AROUND THE CODY FOOTHILLS...ESPECIALLY
AROUND THE MOST IMPORTANT CROSSROADS IN AMERICA...CLARK.
HOWEVER...IT WILL SHOULD BE ENOUGH FOR SOME FIRE WEATHER HIGHLIGHTS.
WE WILL HOLD OFF FOR NOW TO SEE IF ANY NEW FUEL REPORTS COME IN TO
SEE IF MORE ZONES NEED TO BE INCLUDED...BUT A FIRE WEATHER WATCH
LOOKS TO BE A GOOD POSSIBILITY TO ISSUED SOMETIME TODAY. THE
DOWNSLOPING FLOW SHOULD ALSO KEEP MOST AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE RAIN
FREE THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH THE FRONT APPROACHING THE WEST
TUESDAY NIGHT...SOME SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE WEST.

THE COLD FRONT THEN CROSSES THE STATE ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL USHER IN
SOME SHARPLY COOLER TEMPERATURES...ESPECIALLY AFTER THE LONG STRETCH
OF WARM WEATHER WE HAVE EXPERIENCED. THE MODELS DO HAVE SOME SHOWERS
AROUND BUT QPF AMOUNTS ARE NOT THAT HEAVY THROUGH THE DAY.
AGAIN...WITH CONTINUITY LOOKING REASONABLE WE MADE FEW CHANGES. SOME
TRANSITORY RIDGING ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT SHOULD KEEP
THINGS MAINLY DRY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE WEATHER SYSTEM FOR THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT DOES NOT LOOK AS
INTERESTING ON THIS SET OF 00Z RUNS FOR THE GFS/ECMWF MODELS. IT
SEEMS THE BEST DYNAMICS WILL BE TO OUR SOUTH. STILL EXPECTING SNOW
SHOWERS FOR THE MOUNTAINS. 700MB TEMPS ARE COLD ENOUGH TO SUPPORT
SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. WILL KEEP A MIX IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS BUT WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SNOW SHOWERS DOMINATE.
WOULD NOT SEE MUCH ACCUMULATION AT THE LOWER ELEVATIONS UNTIL
AFTER SUNSET THURS NIGHT. FRIDAY MORNING MAY SEE SOME LINGERING
LIGHT SNOW WITH DRYING IN THE AFTERNOON WITH LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS. DRY FRI NIGHT. SATURDAY NOW LOOKS DRY. THE MODELS ARE
AGAIN DIFFERENT ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH THE WEATHER PATTERN.
THE GFS MAINTAINS A WEATHER SYSTEM FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH PRECIP IN THE WEST ON SUNDAY INTO SUN NIGHT...THEN SCATTERED
SHOWERS EAST OF THE DIVIDE SUN NIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE ECMWF HAS A
SW FLOW ALOFT SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH WEAK WEATHER SYSTEMS
IMPACTING MAINLY NW WY BOTH DAYS. WITH THIS UNCERTAINTY I HAVE
GONE WITH LOW PRECIP CHANCE IN NW WY SUNDAY AND MONDAY AND LEANING
TOWARD THE ECMWF SOLUTION FOR NOW. WILL SEE HOW THINGS LOOK
TONIGHT AND ADJUST AS NEEDED. AS FOR TEMPS...COLDER HIGHS THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...THEN WARMING BACK UP FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. WILL
KEEP MONDAY MILD AS WELL...AGAIN LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF
SOLUTION NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MAINLY DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING. A GUSTY
BREEZE WILL BLOW AT TIMES ACROSS THE WIND RIVER BASIN THEREFORE A
RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE CONTINUED BUT THIS WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE
RIVERTON AIRPORT AND WESTWARD. ELSEWHERE...THERE ALTHOUGH RED FLAG
CONDITIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED...THERE COULD BE NEAR CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN NATRONA COUNTY. AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT
WILL BRING WINDIER CONDITIONS FOR TUESDAY AND WILL INCREASE FIRE
DANGER ACROSS MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND SOUTHERN WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 300540
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1140 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT)

GENTLE RIDGING WEST W/ NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC FRONT WELL TO THE E AND
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AT THE SFC OVR THE FA. WEAK SW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPR LVL
CLOUDS RIDING OVR/THRU THE RIDGE FROM NERN ID INTO CNTRL MT.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS FCST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE MID/UPR CLOUD
RIDING INTO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING JUST N OF THE BORDER NEAR SILVER GATE. ANOTHER
WEAK UPR WAVE WITH SOME CLOUD...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL
INTERFACE W/ WA/OR...WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND KICK THRU
MONDAY TO NO AVAIL. DRYING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER
MODEST WRLY LL FLOW...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FIRE WX PROBLEMS ON TUE
WHEN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE FAR WEST.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
OVER AND NEAR THE EAST...LEE...SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND
NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE REACHED WITH THE CHINOOK
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

TUESDAY NIGHT  ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH COOLING
IN THE WEST AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.  SOME
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS
AND CASPER...THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF WYOMING OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIED WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HUNG UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER COLD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT WITH
RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW MIX SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN PLACES.  THROUGH THE DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF
BOMBING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION...FRONTOGENESIS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  AN OCCLUSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON TOP OF THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LARAMIE RANGE...CASPER MOUNTAIN.
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING
SNOWS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SOME FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS.

SATURDAY  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING.  WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WESTERN WIND RIVER BASIN...THERE
WILL BE  LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WHERE FIRE DANGER WILL
BECOME CRITICAL WITH LOW RH VALUES COMBINING WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN...NATRONA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...WHERE FUELS ARE CURRENTLY CRITICAL...WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RETURNING TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300540
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1140 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT)

GENTLE RIDGING WEST W/ NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC FRONT WELL TO THE E AND
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AT THE SFC OVR THE FA. WEAK SW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPR LVL
CLOUDS RIDING OVR/THRU THE RIDGE FROM NERN ID INTO CNTRL MT.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS FCST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE MID/UPR CLOUD
RIDING INTO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING JUST N OF THE BORDER NEAR SILVER GATE. ANOTHER
WEAK UPR WAVE WITH SOME CLOUD...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL
INTERFACE W/ WA/OR...WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND KICK THRU
MONDAY TO NO AVAIL. DRYING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER
MODEST WRLY LL FLOW...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FIRE WX PROBLEMS ON TUE
WHEN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE FAR WEST.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
OVER AND NEAR THE EAST...LEE...SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND
NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE REACHED WITH THE CHINOOK
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

TUESDAY NIGHT  ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH COOLING
IN THE WEST AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.  SOME
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS
AND CASPER...THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF WYOMING OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIED WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HUNG UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER COLD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT WITH
RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW MIX SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN PLACES.  THROUGH THE DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF
BOMBING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION...FRONTOGENESIS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  AN OCCLUSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON TOP OF THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LARAMIE RANGE...CASPER MOUNTAIN.
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING
SNOWS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SOME FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS.

SATURDAY  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING.  WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WESTERN WIND RIVER BASIN...THERE
WILL BE  LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WHERE FIRE DANGER WILL
BECOME CRITICAL WITH LOW RH VALUES COMBINING WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN...NATRONA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...WHERE FUELS ARE CURRENTLY CRITICAL...WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RETURNING TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 300540
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1140 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT)

GENTLE RIDGING WEST W/ NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC FRONT WELL TO THE E AND
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AT THE SFC OVR THE FA. WEAK SW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPR LVL
CLOUDS RIDING OVR/THRU THE RIDGE FROM NERN ID INTO CNTRL MT.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS FCST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE MID/UPR CLOUD
RIDING INTO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING JUST N OF THE BORDER NEAR SILVER GATE. ANOTHER
WEAK UPR WAVE WITH SOME CLOUD...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL
INTERFACE W/ WA/OR...WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND KICK THRU
MONDAY TO NO AVAIL. DRYING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER
MODEST WRLY LL FLOW...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FIRE WX PROBLEMS ON TUE
WHEN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE FAR WEST.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
OVER AND NEAR THE EAST...LEE...SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND
NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE REACHED WITH THE CHINOOK
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

TUESDAY NIGHT  ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH COOLING
IN THE WEST AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.  SOME
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS
AND CASPER...THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF WYOMING OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIED WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HUNG UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER COLD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT WITH
RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW MIX SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN PLACES.  THROUGH THE DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF
BOMBING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION...FRONTOGENESIS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  AN OCCLUSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON TOP OF THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LARAMIE RANGE...CASPER MOUNTAIN.
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING
SNOWS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SOME FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS.

SATURDAY  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING.  WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WESTERN WIND RIVER BASIN...THERE
WILL BE  LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WHERE FIRE DANGER WILL
BECOME CRITICAL WITH LOW RH VALUES COMBINING WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN...NATRONA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...WHERE FUELS ARE CURRENTLY CRITICAL...WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RETURNING TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300540
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1140 PM MDT SUN MAR 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 234 PM MDT)

GENTLE RIDGING WEST W/ NW FLOW ALOFT AND SFC FRONT WELL TO THE E AND
INTO THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING
IN AT THE SFC OVR THE FA. WEAK SW AND ASSOCIATED MID TO UPR LVL
CLOUDS RIDING OVR/THRU THE RIDGE FROM NERN ID INTO CNTRL MT.

NOT MUCH GOING ON THIS FCST PERIOD OTHER THAN THE MID/UPR CLOUD
RIDING INTO THE WEST AND ACROSS THE NORTH TODAY. PRECIP SHOULD
REMAIN AT BAY FOR THE MOST PART EVERYWHERE EXCEPT FOR A STRAY SHOWER
POSSIBLE THIS EVENING JUST N OF THE BORDER NEAR SILVER GATE. ANOTHER
WEAK UPR WAVE WITH SOME CLOUD...CURRENTLY LOCATED NEAR THE COASTAL
INTERFACE W/ WA/OR...WILL MAKE ITS WAY INTO THE CWA AND KICK THRU
MONDAY TO NO AVAIL. DRYING WILL CONTINUE TODAY AND TOMORROW UNDER
MODEST WRLY LL FLOW...LEADING TO POTENTIAL FIRE WX PROBLEMS ON TUE
WHEN BOTH WINDS AND CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY INCREASE.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT WARM DRY HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER IN
THE FAR WEST.  BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS WILL DEVELOP AND INCREASE
OVER AND NEAR THE EAST...LEE...SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  OVERNIGHT
LOWS WILL BE MILD...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS.

TUESDAY THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL SHIFT EAST OF THE AREA WITH
STRONGER SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DEVELOPING WITH STRONG DOWNSLOPE
WINDS...VERY WARM TEMPERATURES AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY OVER AND
NEAR THE EAST SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.  SOME CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP OVER THE FAR WESTERN MOUNTAINS
IN THE AFTERNOON.  SOME RECORD HIGHS MAY BE REACHED WITH THE CHINOOK
CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

TUESDAY NIGHT  ISOLATED EVENING THUNDERSTORMS AND SHOWERS WITH
INCREASING CLOUDS WILL SPREAD EAST THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH COOLING
IN THE WEST AND MILD OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES IN THE EAST.  SOME
SHOWERS WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

WEDNESDAY A COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA WITH
SHOWERS BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS..ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
WINDY CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR BOTH AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AND BEHIND
THE FRONT.  THE STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR BETWEEN ROCK SPRINGS
AND CASPER...THROUGH THE WIND CORRIDOR. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COLDER...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST.

WEDNESDAY NIGHT SOME DRYING WILL OCCUR AS THE FIRST COLD FRONT
MOVES SOUTH AND EAST AND A SECOND COLD FRONT AND STRONGER UPPER
LEVEL LOW PRESSURE TROUGH DEVELOPS TO THE WEST OF WYOMING OVER
WESTERN MONTANA AND IDAHO. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL AS THE
COLD AIR DEEPENS AND NORTH NORTHEAST FLOW INCREASES WITH STRONG
CYCLOGENESIS OCCURRING OVER THE GREAT BASIN.

THURSDAY STRONG DIVERGENCE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP IN THE LEFT FRONT
QUADRANT OF AN UPPER LEVEL JET ACCOMPANIED WITH A PLUME OF PACIFIC
MOISTURE OVERRUNNING THE COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BE HUNG UP ALONG THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. AS THE SURFACE TO 700 MB LOW DEEPENS RAPIDLY TO
THE SOUTHWEST...STRONGER COLD UPSLOPE FLOW WILL RESULT WITH
RAIN...RAIN AND SNOW MIX SPREADING ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS...POSSIBLY HEAVY IN PLACES.  THROUGH THE DAY
TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO COOL WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW AFTER
MAXIMUM HEATING IN THE LATER AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY NIGHT  THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW SHOWS SIGNS OF
BOMBING IN RESPONSE TO STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE...STRONG MID LEVEL
DEFORMATION...FRONTOGENESIS AND LATENT HEAT RELEASE.  AN OCCLUSION
IS EXPECTED TO FORM ON TOP OF THE STRONGEST UPSLOPE AREAS ALONG THE
WIND RIVER MOUNTAINS AND WESTERN LARAMIE RANGE...CASPER MOUNTAIN.
AREAS OF MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW MAY RESULT.  SURFACE TEMPERATURES
WILL CONTINUE TO PLUNGE.

FRIDAY THE UPPER LEVEL AND SURFACE LOW WILL EJECT RAPIDLY EASTWARD
AS THE UPPER LEVEL JET SWEEPS EAST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS.  SNOWFALL
WILL TAPER OFF FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE DAY WITH
PARTIAL CLEARING...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  THE MOUNTAINS AND EAST WILL HAVE SOME LINGERING
SNOWS.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD.

FRIDAY NIGHT  A FEW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVER THE MOUNTAINS IN NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE COLD ACROSS THE REGION WITH
CLEARING THROUGH THE NIGHT.  SOME FOG CAN BE EXPECTED IN THE VALLEYS
AND BASINS.

SATURDAY  A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVER THE
AREA THROUGH THE DAY WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS.

SATURDAY NIGHT HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO BRING MOSTLY CLEAR
CONDITIONS WITH WARMING.  WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL PICK UP ACROSS
THE AREA.

SUNDAY SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL INCREASE OVER THE AREA AHEAD OF
ANOTHER PACIFIC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH.  THE LEADING EDGE OF THE
MOISTURE FROM THIS TROUGH WILL ENTER THE WEST IN THE AFTERNOON WITH
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS.
WARMING WILL CONTINUE.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY WITH MAINLY A
FEW-SCT HIGH CLOUDS.  W-NW WINDS OF 10-20KTS WILL PREVAIL MONDAY
AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE WINDS WILL BE LIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...FIRE DANGER TO REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST
LOCATIONS TODAY AND MONDAY AS SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
WIND SPEEDS REMAIN ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER BUILDING
HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...ACROSS THE WESTERN WIND RIVER BASIN...THERE
WILL BE  LOCATIONS THIS AFTERNOON AND MONDAY WHERE FIRE DANGER WILL
BECOME CRITICAL WITH LOW RH VALUES COMBINING WITH OCCASIONALLY GUSTY
WEST TO NORTHWEST WIND TO 25 MPH. A RED FLAG WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR THIS AREA. OTHERWISE...FIRE DANGER WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN ACROSS MANY AREAS WITH A LACK OF SNOW COVER ON TUESDAY.
PORTIONS OF THE WIND RIVER BASIN...NATRONA COUNTY AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTY...WHERE FUELS ARE CURRENTLY CRITICAL...WILL SEE THE
BEST CHANCE AT RETURNING TO CRITICAL FIRE DANGER LEVELS.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 7 PM MDT MONDAY WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









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