Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KRIW 310520
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1120 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST
AS UPR LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO
SLIGHTLY MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO
THE DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND
POSSIBLE MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS
TO RAISE LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH
SIGNIFICANT INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. PATCHY FOG
WILL OCCUR IN SOUTHWEST WY UNTIL 15Z WITH LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL FORM OVER AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
AFTER 19Z AND CONTINUE THROUGH 02Z. ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL LINGER
UNTIL 06Z FRIDAY. MOST TERMINAL SITES WILL NOT SEE STORMS OR SHOWERS
TODAY AND THIS EVENING. PLEASE SEE INDIVIDUAL TERMINAL FORECASTS FOR
DETAILS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 302100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

CERTAINLY MUCH QUIETER TODAY THAN YESTERDAY WAS AT THIS TIME.
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES ARE MUCH LOWER THAN YESTERDAY WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE PUSHED TO THE SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...THERE IS
STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE AROUND AND COMBINED WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE
MOVING THROUGH FOR SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER...MAINLY SOUTH OF THE WIND
RIVER RANGE AND ALSO ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS. AND LIKE
YESTERDAY...WHERE MOST OF THE MOISTURE IS IT IS STILL MOSTLY CLOUDY
SO TEMPERATURES AND INSTABILITY ARE RELATIVELY LIMITED. AS A
RESULT...FEW THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED IN THE SOUTH. THE BEST
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS WOULD BE ACROSS NORTHWESTERN AREAS WHERE
MORE SUNSHINE WILL BRING MORE INSTABILITY. HOWEVER...THERE IS NOT A
LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT EVEN TO VAST MAJORITY OF STORMS WOULD BE
OF THE RUN OF THE MILL VARIETY.

ANY SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD REALLY WANE AFTER THE EVENING HOURS AS
DRIER AIR CONTINUES PRESS TOWARD THE SOUTH ACROSS THE STATE. WITH
THE RAIN THERE COULD BE SOME FOG IN THE SOUTH SO WE WILL ADD SOME TO
THOSE AREAS THAT HAVE RECEIVED RAIN TODAY.

AS FOR TOMORROW...MODELS INDICATE THAT THERE WILL NOT BE A LOT OF
MOISTURE TO WORK WITH.  HOWEVER...WITH YET ANOTHER IN THE STRING OF
NEVER ENDING SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER THE TOP OF THE RIDGE WE WILL
LIKELY HAVE A FEW THUNDERSTORMS AROUND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE HIGH ELEVATION HEAT SOURCE. WITH MORE
SUNSHINE TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE THE UPWARD TREND MORE SUNSHINE
AND INCREASING THICKNESSES BUT REMAIN NEAR TO SOMEWHAT BELOW NORMAL
FOR MOST LOCATIONS.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

OVERALL THU NIGHT THROUGH THE WEAKEN...NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST AS UPR
LVL RIDGE DOES NOT VARY MUCH IN POSITION THRU SAT...EXCEPT TO SLIGHTLY
MIGRATE EWD A FEW MILES...REMOVING THE FA FROM NW FLOW BY
SAT....THEN BROADENING AND FLATTENING SUN. AT LOWER LVLS...HEAT LOW
OVR THE DESERT SW REMAIN AND WILL KEEP PUMPING MONSOONAL MOISTURE
INTO THE INTERMOUNTAIN PERIODICALLY. WHILE IT WILL NOT BE A CONSTANT
STREAM OF MOISTURE OR KEEP PRECIP ACROSS THE CWA THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...THE WRN MOUNTAINS ALONG WITH THE SRN MOST FA WILL BE
AFFECTED MOST THRU THE WEEKEND. ADDITIONALLY...AS THE RIDGE WANDER
WWD...HEIGHTS WILL RECOVER AND TEMPS WILL WILL BEGIN A SLOW RISE
BACK TO SEASONABLY WARM. CONVECTIVE FORCING THRU THE WEEKEND WILL
BEST COME FROM THE MOUNTAINS FIRST AND MINOR UPR LVL DISTURBANCES
SECOND.

MON THRU WED...BEST CHCS IN THE EXTENDED FOR PRECIP WILL OCCUR IN
THE MON/TUE TIMEFRAME...POSSIBLY EXTENDING INTO WED OF NEXT WEEK.
THIS WILL OCCUR FOR SEVERAL REASONS...INCLUDING THE MOVEMENT OF
STRONG PVA THAT WILL GENERATE HIGH OVER THE SONORA DESERT THIS
WEEKEND IN RESPONSE TO A SMALL DISTURBANCE THAT SHOWS WEAKLY IN THE
WV IMAGERY OVR THE SRN BAJA THIS AFTERNOON. THIS WILL LIKELY RESULT
IN INCREASED POSITIVE VORT AS IT MOVES OVR THE HEAT LOW AND UNDER
THE UPR HIGH...NWD MOVEMENT...AND POSSIBLY THE FORMATION OF A WEAK
UPR LOW BY SUN. THIS WILL THEN BE DRAWN UP INTO THE GREAT BASIN
THRU SUN WITH THE OF THE EASIER TO FCST UPSTREAM TROF KICKING OUT OF
AND AHEAD OF THE LARGE GULF OF AK  LOW. THESE CONDITIONS WILL THEN
BEGIN TO AFFECT THE CWA BY MONDAY WITH A LARGE INCREASE IN DEEP
MOISTURE PHASING WITH A LITTLE BETTER UPR DYNAMICS IN ADDITION TO THE
DEVELOPMENT OF MORE LOW LVL BOUNDARIES LIKE A LEE LOW AND POSSIBLE
MID LVL FRONTOGENESIS. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO FCST WAS TO RAISE
LOW TEMPS MON NIGHT AND TO LOWER HIGH TEMPS FOR TUE WITH SIGNIFICANT
INCREASES IN CLOUDINESS AFFECTING BOTH.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

MOST CONVECTION SHOULD END AT THE TAF SITES WEST OF THE DIVIDE BY
AROUND 3Z WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A FEW SPOTS COULD SEE PATCHY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN VICINITY OF KJAC...KPNA...KBPI AND KRKS BUT NOT
ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO INCLUDE IN THE TAFS. MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREDOMINATE MOST OF TOMORROW WITH ANY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
RESTRICTED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND IN VICINITY OF KJAC.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ANY THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING SHOULD END WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME
HEATING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING OVER THE AREA WILL BRING
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY TO THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS
AND ADJACENT VALLEYS. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL RIDE UP AND
OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH
WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY WITH THE MOST
NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE
WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS. TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY
RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR
BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON













000
FXUS65 KRIW 301708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATELLITE LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY
ACDG TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION
WILL MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL
CIRCULATION DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL
EXIT SOUTHERN WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER
NORTHWEST WY THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE
FROM THE EAST NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY
KEEPING US UNDER A RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN
TUESDAY. ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST
WY WHERE THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY
ANOTHER WEAK UPPER LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE
OVER THE ROCKIES AND IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE
REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR
HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL
MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE
OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR
NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH VCTS. DURING THE
EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY
EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON














000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 300902
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
302 AM MDT WED JUL 30 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

UPPER CIRCULATION APPEARS TO BE OVER THE IDAHO/WY BORDER ACDG TO
SATL LOOP WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION OVER LINCOLN CO SW WY ACDG
TO RADAR. THESE CIRCULATIONS WILL DRIFT TO THE SOUTHEAST AS THE
REMAINING STRATIFORM PRECIP BECOMES MORE FOCUSED PRIMARILY OVER
SWEETWATER AND SOUTHEAST NATRONA COUNTIES. THE UPPER CIRCULATION WILL
MAKE ITS WAY TO THE RED DESERT TODAY WITH THE MID LEVEL CIRCULATION
DRIFTING FROM NE UTAH TO NW CO. THE ASCT RAINFALL WILL EXIT SOUTHERN
WY AROUND MID DAY JUST AS FRESH CONVECTION FORMS OVER NORTHWEST WY
THIS AFTERNOON. THE PREVAILING SURFACE WIND WILL BE FROM THE EAST
NORTH OF THE LOW...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY KEEPING US UNDER A
RELATIVELY MILD AND MOIST AIRMASS BUT WARMER THAN TUESDAY.
ON THURSDAY...MORE CONVECTION WILL FORM MAINLY IN NORTHWEST WY WHERE
THE BEST LIFTED INDICES/CAPES WILL BE. THEN ON FRIDAY ANOTHER WEAK UPPER
LOW WILL RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES AND
IS PROGGED TO BE OVER NW WY BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THIS WILL RESULT IN
A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE CWA FRIDAY AFT/EVE. TEMPS
WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK BUT WILL
REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.


.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WEEKEND LOOKS TO START WITH THE RIDGE AXIS NEARLY OVERHEAD WITH THE
BEST MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FORECAST TO BE IN THE WESTERN AND
ESPECIALLY NWRN MOUNTAINS. ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY DRIFT ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING...MAINLY CENTRAL AND NORTH. GFS DRIES OUT THE AIRMASS
SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY FOR MAINLY WRN MTN STORMS. EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS
QUITE INTERESTING AGAIN WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF DECENT RAINFALL AS
THE RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS SLIGHTLY EAST OF US OPENING THE DOOR FOR
INCREASING MONSOONAL MOISTURE AND DISTURBANCES. THE GFS HAS THE
MOISTURE RETURNING TO THE WEST MONDAY WITH SOME INCREASE EAST OF THE
DIVIDE BY EVENING. THE ECMWF IS FASTER WITH THE HIGHER PW AIR OVER
THE ENTIRE CWFA MONDAY. THE GEM IS CLOSER IN TIMING TO THE GFS. ALL
THE MODELS SEEM TO BRING UP THE REMNANTS OF AN ELY WAVE ORIGINATING
ON THE BOTTOM OF THE 4-CORNERS HIGH FOR LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.
DETAILS ARE STILL UNCERTAIN BUT EARLY NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE ANOTHER
POTENTIALLY MOIST AND UNSETTLED PERIOD WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF MORE
RAIN FOR A LARGE PART OF THE AREA. ECMWF IS SHOWING RAPID DRYING
TUESDAY IN A NW FLOW AS THE RIDGE REDEVELOPS TO OUR WEST. THE GFS IS
SLOWER TO DEVELOP THE NW FLOW...MORE WNW YET TUESDAY...WITH THE
REMNANT WAVE STILL HANGING OVER THE ERN PART OF THE AREA. STICKING
WITH SCT POPS YET TUESDAY BEFORE SOME DRYING OCCURS WEDNESDAY WITH
SCT POPS CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY ISOLATED ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS. DEPENDING ON EXACT TIMING THE WARMEST DAYS LOOK TO
BE SUNDAY AND POTENTIALLY MONDAY IF THE SLOWER MONSOONAL GFS TIMING
OCCURS. COOLER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND PCPN THEN TUESDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY REBOUND SOME WEDNESDAY BUT STILL BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
WIDESPREAD SHOWER ACTIVITY ONGOING THIS MORNING...MAINLY OVER
SOUTHERN LINCOLN AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES...WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE
TO ONLY ISOLATED ACTIVITY BY AROUND 15/16Z. BEFORE THEN...WIDESPREAD
MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN THIS AREA IMPACTING
KRKS. FARTHER NORTH...THE PRIMARY CONCERN WILL BE PATCHY FOG
IMPACTING TERMINALS WHERE RAIN FELL YESTERDAY. ANY FOG IS EXPECTED
TO LIFT/DISSIPATE BY AROUND 15/16Z. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO
LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND
SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE
VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL FOR NOW...WITH VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE
TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED
CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH
ENOUGH TO HAVE EVEN VCSH. DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD
QUICKLY WANE. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS
TODAY...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF BREEZY EAST WINDS EXPECTED ACROSS
SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS. ONE SIDE NOTE...FOG IS EXPECTED
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO THIRDS OVER WYOMING THIS MORNING WITH SMALL
DP/TEMP SPREADS AS A RESULT OF THE WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL
TUE THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAINFALL WILL EXIT SWEETWATER COUNTY
TO THE SOUTH THIS MORNING. SOON AFTERWARD...WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP OVER WESTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT EAST WINDS 15 TO 30 MPH TODAY ACROSS ZONE 279. THURSDAY
WILL BE A REPEAT OF TODAY WITH MORE WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN WYOMING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
RIDE UP AND OVER THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OVER THE
ROCKIES FRIDAY WHICH WILL INCREASE THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS
FRIDAY WITH THE MOST NUMEROUS SHOWER ACTIVITY EXPECTED OVER
WESTERN WY AS FAR EAST AS THE WESTERN EDGES OF THE CENTRAL BASINS.
TEMPERATURES WILL SLOWLY RECOVER DURING THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK
WEEK BUT WILL REMAIN AT OR BELOW NORMAL FOR HIGH TEMPS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 300529
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1129 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT SOUTH OF A
KBPI TO KCPR LINE...WITH MUCH OF THE ACTIVITY OVER SOUTHERN LINCOLN
AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. ALONG AND NORTH OF THIS AREA...WHERE RAIN
OCCURRED TUESDAY...SOME FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE DESPITE THE LINGERING
MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS...DUE TO VERY LOW TEMP/DEWPT DEPRESSIONS. THE
MAIN AREA OF SHOWERS OVER SWEETWATER COUNTY SHOULD DISSIPATE/EXIT
THE AREA BETWEEN 15Z AND 18Z. AT THE SAME TIME...ANY FOG SHOULD ALSO
LIFT. IN THE AFTERNOON...ISOLATED TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION
WILL MAINLY OCCUR OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH. THE BEST INSTABILITY WILL
BE OVER THE FAR WEST AND WILL HAVE VCTS ONLY AT JAC TERMINAL...WITH
VCSH OVER THE REST OF THE TERMINALS WEST OF THE DIVIDE. ALTHOUGH
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED CONVECTION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...COVERAGE AND CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO HAVE VCSH.
DURING THE EVENING...CONVECTION SHOULD QUICKLY WANE.

FOR TERMINALS THE WORST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT KRKS WITH
PERSISTENT MVFR/PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH AROUND
15Z. OTHERWISE THE OTHER TAF SITES COULD SEE PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAINLY IN FOG THROUGH THE TIME FRAME. AFTER
15Z/16Z...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITH ONLY BRIEF
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE
EASTERLY IN MOST AREAS...BUT RELATIVELY LIGHT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
BREEZY EAST WINDS ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY IMPACTING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS









000
FXUS65 KRIW 292109
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJAC TO KWRL TO KCPR LINE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA BUT THE CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCPR TO KRIW TO YELLOWSTONE
PARK...MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS






000
FXUS65 KRIW 292109
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
309 PM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A DEEP PLUME OF MONSOONAL MOISTURE HAS MOVED OVER THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. WITH SOME UPLIFT PROVIDED BY A MID LEVEL LOW MOVING ACROSS
UTAH MANY AREAS HAVE BEEN SEEING SHOWERY RAINS THROUGH THE MORNING
AND INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE GOOD PART ABOUT THIS IS THAT OVER
A MAJORITY OF THE AREA THERE HAS BEEN A MAINLY OVERCAST SKY THAT HAS
LIMITED INSTABILITY. AS A RESULT...MOST OF THE RAIN HAS BEEN OF THE
LIGHT TO MODERATE VARIETY WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHTNING STRIKES. THE
EXCEPTION SO FAR HAS BEEN SOUTHERN NATRONA COUNTY WHERE A STRONG
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPED OVER CASPER MOUNTAIN. SOME CLEARING HAS BEEN
TRYING TO DEVELOP ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING BUT ANY BREAKS SO FAR
HAVE CLOSED AS QUICKLY AS THEY HAVE FORMED. AS A RESULT...WE EXPECT
LITTLE SEVERE WEATHER. THE MAIN THREAT CONTINUES TO BE FLOODING WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES RUNNING WELL OVER AN INCH. WITH THE
STRATIFORM NATURE OF THE RAIN...WE HAVE DECIDED AGAINST ISSUING A
FLOOD WATCH AT THIS POINT.

MODELS HAVE DIFFERING OPINIONS ON HOW FAST THE DEEPER MOISTURE GETS
MOVED OUT OF THE AREA. THE NAM HAS TRENDED SLOWER WITH KEEPING DEEP
MOISTURE OVER AREAS SOUTH OF THE OWL CREEK RANGE THROUGH TONIGHT.
MEANWHILE...THE GFS IS MUCH FASTER WITH PUSHING THE DEEP MOISTURE
OUT OF THE AREA BY AROUND 9Z. AT THIS POINT... CONTINUITY LOOKED
LIKE A DECENT SOLUTION. AS A RESULT WE KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING
THROUGH MIDNIGHT AND TAPERED THINGS OFF AFTER MIDNIGHT.

IT IS THE SAME PROBLEM FOR WEDNESDAY. THE NAM KEEPS MORE MOISTURE
OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH A DECENT AMOUNT LESS THAN TODAY. IT HAS
CONVECTION ACROSS MAINLY THE SOUTHWESTERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING
AREA. THE GFS IS ONCE AGAIN THE DRIER MODEL IN BRINGING IN DRIER AIR
FURTHER SOUTH AND CONFINES ANY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
NORTHWESTERN PORTIONS OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. ONCE AGAIN...WITH
THE UNCERTAINTY CONTINUITY LOOKED LIKE A REASONABLE COMPROMISE SO WE
MADE FEW CHANGES. WITH MORE SUNSHINE TOMORROW...TEMPERATURES SHOULD
BE WARMER THAN TODAY BY AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES BUT STILL BELOW
NORMAL FOR THE END OF JULY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

WEAK OR DIRTY RIDGE OVER FORECAST AREA MUCH OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
THIS GENERALLY MEANS THERE WILL BE WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EACH DAY WITH JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE
AND LIFT FROM TERRAIN ACROSS WEST CENTRAL WYOMING. FACTORING IN
AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE AND TEMPERATURES ALOFT...DAYTIME HIGHS AND
OVERNIGHT LOWS SHOULD BE SIMILAR...OR NEAR NORMAL...FROM DAY TO DAY.

POSSIBLE INCREASE IN MONSOONAL MOISTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
MONDAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE PER MEDIUM RANGE MODELS.
COULD RESULT IN HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE WEST. SUNDAY NIGHT SHOULD BE
MILD. PATTERN THEN LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH THIS RIDGE FLATTENING AND
SERIES OF SHORTWAVES MOVING OVER WEST CENTRAL WYOMING.
THEREFORE...MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WILL BE COOLER WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL AREAS.
&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING
HOURS MAINLY SOUTH OF A KJAC TO KWRL TO KCPR LINE.  ALTHOUGH WINDS
WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO
GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA BUT THE CHANCE OF SPOTTY SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE
EVENING. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING. SOMEWHAT MORE SETTLED WEATHER IS EXPECTED
FOR WEDNESDAY. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTH OF A LINE FROM KCPR TO KRIW TO YELLOWSTONE
PARK...MAINLY OF THE ISOLATED VARIETY.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS
EVENING WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS
ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME
FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF SHOWER
ACTIVITY ALTHOUGH NOT AS HEAVY OR AS WIDESPREAD AS TODAY.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE WARMER BUT REMAIN BELOW NORMAL AND RELATIVE
HUMIDITY SHOULD REMAIN BELOW CRITICAL LEVELS FOR MOST AREAS.
&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...HATTINGS
LONG TERM...KPL
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...HATTINGS







000
FXUS65 KRIW 291708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KMTR TO KWRL TO KBYG LINE. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 291708
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1108 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME
HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
THE MOST WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA WILL BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
AREAS...ROUGHLY SOUTH OF A KMTR TO KWRL TO KBYG LINE. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT THIS TIME.
ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING
WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED
TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH BETWEEN 03Z AND
09Z...ESPECIALLY NORTH OF THE WIND RIVER RANGE AS DRIER PRESSES IN
FROM MONTANA. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT
LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.
&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 291006
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
406 AM MDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT
TODAY IS LIKELY GOING TO TURN OUT TO BE A COOL WET DAY...NOT BECAUSE
OF COOL AIR ADVECTION...BUT FROM AN ABUNDANCE OF
CLOUDINESS...RAINFALL AND EVAPORATIVE COOLING. HIGH TEMPS TODAY WILL
BE 20 DEGREES COOLER THAN THEY WERE ON MONDAY IN MANY AREAS. A DEEP
LAYER OF MONSOON MOISTURE WITH MULTIPLE CLOUD LAYERS WILL PREVENT
SOLAR INSULATION FOR STRONG CONVECTION BUT WILL SUPPLY WIDESPREAD
RAINFALL. SINCE CONVECTION WILL BE RELATIVELY WEAK...DECIDED AGAINST
A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR ANY LOCATION IN THE CWA BUT WE OPTED TO
MENTION POSSIBLE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL THROUGH AN SPS. THE MOST
ABUNDANT RAINFALL WILL BE IN THE SOUTHWEST HALF OF THE CWA WITH MUCH
DRIER AIR LOOMING TO THE NORTH OVER MONTANA. A SHORTWAVE RIDING UP
AND OVER THE RIDGE OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SPIN OFF AN H5 CLOSED LOW
OVER UTAH/IDAHO WITH MOISTURE ENCASED WITHIN THIS FEATURE. AN ASCT
H7 LOW WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER SOUTHWEST WY WHICH WILL HELP
DRAW IN COOL MOIST GULF AIR FROM THE EAST UNDERCUTTING THE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL MONSOON MOISTURE. SO WITH COOL AIR IN PLACE AND
RESULTANT WEAK CONVECTION...DO NOT THINK WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAINFALL
WILL OCCUR. THE MOST DRAMATIC SHORTWAVE AS SEEN ON THE WV LOOP IS
WAY DOWN IN SOUTHERN ARIZONA. SINCE THAT SHORTWAVE WOULD NOT ARRIVE
HERE TODAY OR TONIGHT BASED ON ITS SPEED...WILL NOT BOTHER TRYING TO
TIME THAT FEATURE FOR NOW.

ON WEDNESDAY...SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL RETREAT TO THE SOUTH OVER
SOUTHERN WY AS THE H7 LOW DRIFTS TO THE WY/CO BORDER. FRESH
CONVECTION IS THEN EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON MAINLY OVER FAR
WESTERN WY AS WEAK IMPULSES RIDE UP AND OVER THE STATIONARY RIDGE.
TEMPS WILL WARM ON WEDNESDAY ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES.

THEN ON THURSDAY THE NEXT PROMINENT SHORTWAVE RIDING UP AND OVER THE
RIDGE WILL SPIN OFF A CLOSED LOW OVER NEVADA AND WILL TRACK TO
IDAHO. THIS FEATURE WILL LIKELY PRODUCE A GOOD CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS IN WESTERN WY AND THE BIG HORN MTNS. TEMPS WILL WARM
ANOTHER 5 DEGREES OR SO FRIDAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

THE EXTENDED PERIOD LOOKS UNSETTLED WITH WEATHER SYSTEMS ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER HIGH WHICH STAYS OVER THE ARIZONA AND NEW MEXICO
AREA PER THE GFS MODEL. ON THE ECMWF MODEL THE UPPER HIGH IS
FORECAST TO MOVE EAST TOWARD TEXAS/EASTERN NEW MEXICO NEXT MONDAY
AND TUESDAY. THUS THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS HAVE DIFFERENT TIMING OF
THESE SYSTEMS. THIS MAKES FORECASTING THE DAYS OF A HIGHER CHANCE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS MORE DIFFICULT. AT THIS POINT FRIDAY AND NEXT
MONDAY AND TUESDAY LOOK MORE ACTIVE THAN SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...WHICH
MAY SEE ACTIVITY MORE ISOLATED. HAVE ADJUSTED THE FORECAST IN THIS
DIRECTION BUT MODEL TIMING IS LIKELY TO CHANGE IN THE COMING DAYS
SO EXPECT REVISIONS TO THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK FORECAST.
HIGH TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE BUT ONLY A FEW PLACES REACHING
90 DEGREES ON CERTAIN DAYS. DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER SOME DAYS MAY
SEE HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO MID 80S IN THE VALLEYS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. EXPECT MILD OVERNIGHT LOWS THROUGH THE PERIOD. WOULD ALSO
EXPECT HIGHER RELATIVE HUMIDITY AT NIGHT AND DURING THE AFTERNOON
DUE TO THE EXPECTED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. THIS PATTERN
WILL HOPEFULLY HELP SOME OF THE AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN QUITE DRY
THE PAST MONTH.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/
ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD BE ONGOING THIS MORNING WITH AN
EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL CLOUD DECK BETWEEN 080-140 KFT AGL. DEEP
MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND DAYTIME HEATING
WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING BETWEEN MID MORNING AND NOON. THE MOST WIDESPREAD
SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS. WIDESPREAD
CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY AND COULD
KEEP THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA...LIMITING TS COVERAGE. THUS WILL
NOT PREVAIL TS AT ANY TERMINAL...AND ONLY HAVE VCTS AT AREA
TERMINALS DURING THE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ESPECIALLY CENTRAL/SOUTHERN TERMINALS...BUT
UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL
AT THIS TIME. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE DUE TO THE
CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY. MUCH OF
THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH TO SOUTH
BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED MUCH OF THE TIME
THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A MORE SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TODAY WITH
WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE
ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE
WEATHER CONCERNS. ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED
HUMIDITY IS EXPECTED FOR TODAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION
OF SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KRIW 290502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A DECENT PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO
ARRIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS WELL UNDER THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER...ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWING SOME
MUCH DRIER AIR PRESSING INTO THE AREA OUT OF MONTANA. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE CUT POPS AND QPF A BIT FOR LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE
WATERS DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE BUT ALSO DROPS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO A SIMILAR AREA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT READY TO GO ALL THE WAY AS A COMPROMISE WE HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION FOR AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT KEPT IT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HERE WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING. WE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS TO WESTERN
WYOMING. CONTINUITY SHOWED THIS FAIRLY WELL SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS DRIER. WE ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN SOME AREAS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE MOST OF THE TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHAT I CALL A SHAMPOO BOTTLE
INSTRUCTION FORECAST. IN OTHER WORDS...WASH...RINSE...REPEAT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN...ACCORDING TO JOHNNY CASH OR SOCIAL
DISTORTION DEPENDING ON YOUR AGE AND MUSICAL TASTE...THE RING OF
FIRE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
PAST DAY 3 IS LIKE TYING TO HERD CATS AND AS A RESULT PINPOINTING A
MORE ACTIVE DAY IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. AT THIS POINT WE KEPT THINGS
GENERIC AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY
LOWERING. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA PERHAPS LIMITING
TS COVERAGE. HAVING SAID THAT WILL PREVAIL TSRA ACROSS MANY OF THE
TERMINALS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED
UPSTREAM IN UTAH ON MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A LULL ANTICIPATED
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED DAYTIME IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 290502
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1100 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A DECENT PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO
ARRIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS WELL UNDER THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER...ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWING SOME
MUCH DRIER AIR PRESSING INTO THE AREA OUT OF MONTANA. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE CUT POPS AND QPF A BIT FOR LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE
WATERS DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE BUT ALSO DROPS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO A SIMILAR AREA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT READY TO GO ALL THE WAY AS A COMPROMISE WE HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION FOR AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT KEPT IT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HERE WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING. WE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS TO WESTERN
WYOMING. CONTINUITY SHOWED THIS FAIRLY WELL SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS DRIER. WE ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN SOME AREAS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE MOST OF THE TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHAT I CALL A SHAMPOO BOTTLE
INSTRUCTION FORECAST. IN OTHER WORDS...WASH...RINSE...REPEAT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN...ACCORDING TO JOHNNY CASH OR SOCIAL
DISTORTION DEPENDING ON YOUR AGE AND MUSICAL TASTE...THE RING OF
FIRE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
PAST DAY 3 IS LIKE TYING TO HERD CATS AND AS A RESULT PINPOINTING A
MORE ACTIVE DAY IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. AT THIS POINT WE KEPT THINGS
GENERIC AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING...WITH AN EXTENSIVE MID LEVEL DECK GRADUALLY
LOWERING. DEEP MONSOONAL MOISTURE IN PLACE...A WEAK DISTURBANCE AND
DAYTIME HEATING WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING BY MIDDAY ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE MOST
WIDESPREAD SHRA/TSRA SHOULD BE OVER THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
WIDESPREAD CLOUD COVER AND ASSOCIATED PRECIP SHOULD LIMIT
INSTABILITY...KEEPING THE MAIN PRECIP TYPE AS SHRA PERHAPS LIMITING
TS COVERAGE. HAVING SAID THAT WILL PREVAIL TSRA ACROSS MANY OF THE
TERMINALS OVER CENTRAL/SOUTHERN AREAS BASED ON WHAT OCCURRED
UPSTREAM IN UTAH ON MONDAY. PERIODS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED IN THOSE AREAS...BUT UNCERTAINTY AND TIMING PRECLUDE
PREVAILING MVFR/IFR AT ANY TERMINAL. ALTHOUGH WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE
DUE TO THE CONVECTION...PREVAILING WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE EASTERLY.
MUCH OF THE CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY END FROM THE NORTH
TO SOUTH BETWEEN 00Z AND 09Z WEDNESDAY. MOUNTAINS WILL BE OBSCURED
MUCH OF THE TIME THROUGH AT LEAST EARLY THIS EVENING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A LULL ANTICIPATED
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED DAYTIME IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 282135
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
335 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AFTER A DECENT PERIOD OF DRY CONDITIONS...EXPECT SOME CHANGES TO
ARRIVE THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. RADAR AND SATELLITE INDICATE THE
PRESENCE OF INCREASING MOISTURE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING...WITH SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY STARTING OVER THE CENTRAL AND
WESTERN MOUNTAINS. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE
AREA TODAY...ESPECIALLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
COVERAGE IS ANTICIPATED TO WEAKEN DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH
RELATIVELY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

ACTIVITY WILL INCREASE AGAIN ON TUESDAY...WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO
SCATTERED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES
ARE ANTICIPATED TO BE SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER AS WELL UNDER THE
INCREASED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWER ACTIVITY. MODEL ANALYSIS CONTINUES
TO INDICATE INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES...INDICATING THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

PRECIPITATION WILL STILL BE ONGOING ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY EVENING
WITH EASTERLY FLOW CONTINUING. HOWEVER...BOTH THE NAM AND GFS HAVE
TRENDED A BIT DRIER...ESPECIALLY LATER TUESDAY NIGHT IN SHOWING SOME
MUCH DRIER AIR PRESSING INTO THE AREA OUT OF MONTANA. AS A RESULT WE
HAVE CUT POPS AND QPF A BIT FOR LATE AT NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. THIS TREND CONTINUES ON
WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY ON THE GFS WITH AN AREA OF PRECIPITABLE
WATERS DROPPING DOWN TO UNDER 0.40 INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF THE COUNTY
WARNING AREA EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. THE NAM IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE BUT ALSO DROPS MUCH DRIER AIR INTO A SIMILAR AREA.
HOWEVER...WE ARE NOT READY TO GO ALL THE WAY AS A COMPROMISE WE HAVE
REMOVED THE PRECIPITATION FOR AROUND THE NORTHEASTERN HALF OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA BUT KEPT IT ACROSS WESTERN AND SOUTHERN AREAS.
HOWEVER...EVEN HERE WE HAVE TRIMMED POPS AND REMOVED THE HEAVY RAIN
WORDING. WE ALSO RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT FOR WEDNESDAY WITH A BIT
MORE SUNSHINE EXPECTED.

THINGS MAY BECOME A BIT MORE ACTIVE AGAIN FOR THURSDAY AS ANOTHER
SHORTWAVE ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE. MODELS HAVE BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT IN BRINGING MORE MOISTURE AND HIGHER POPS TO WESTERN
WYOMING. CONTINUITY SHOWED THIS FAIRLY WELL SO WE MADE FEW CHANGES.
MEANWHILE...EAST OF THE DIVIDE IT STILL LOOKS DRIER. WE ALLOWED FOR
ISOLATED POPS IN SOME AREAS BUT AT THIS POINT MOST AREAS LOOK TO BE
PRECIPITATION FREE MOST OF THE TIME.

THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD IS WHAT I CALL A SHAMPOO BOTTLE
INSTRUCTION FORECAST. IN OTHER WORDS...WASH...RINSE...REPEAT.
MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. AT
THE SAME TIME...SHORTWAVES WILL BE TOPPING THE RIDGE OVER THE AREA.
THIS WILL PUT THE AREA IN...ACCORDING TO JOHNNY CASH OR SOCIAL
DISTORTION DEPENDING ON YOUR AGE AND MUSICAL TASTE...THE RING OF
FIRE. THIS WILL RESULT IN DAILY CHANCES OF MAINLY DIURNAL SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS...ESPECIALLY IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND IN
WESTERN AREAS. HOWEVER...THE TIMING OF THE INDIVIDUAL SHORTWAVES
PAST DAY 3 IS LIKE TYING TO HERD CATS AND AS A RESULT PINPOINTING A
MORE ACTIVE DAY IS DIFFICULT AT BEST. AT THIS POINT WE KEPT THINGS
GENERIC AND TOWARD CLIMATOLOGICALLY FAVORED LOCATIONS.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...ESPECIALLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS. A LULL IN
ACTIVITY WILL BE FOUND ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER 06Z THIS
EVENING...WITH ACTIVITY RETURNING AROUND 10Z. BY 12Z...ACTIVITY
SHOULD BE WIDELY SCATTERED...WITH SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH THE TUESDAY AFTERNOON. HEAVY RAIN IS
THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH ACTIVITY.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE THREAT OF STORM ACTIVITY WITH
ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WIND WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
WESTERN AVIATION PASSES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE OF THE MOUNTAIN BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TURBULENCE.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO STEADILY INCREASE OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS.
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE PRESENT...WITH A LULL ANTICIPATED
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE TONIGHT. ANOTHER SIGNIFICANT PUSH OF
MOISTURE EXPECTED FOR TUESDAY WITH WIDESPREAD SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY. SHOWERS ARE ANTICIPATED TO CONTAIN HEAVY
RAIN...HELPING TO ALLEVIATE SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS.
ADDITIONALLY...COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASED DAYTIME IS EXPECTED
FOR TUESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL SEE A CONTINUATION OF WIDESPREAD SHOWER
ACTIVITY AS A PERIOD OF WET CONDITIONS SETS UP ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...HATTINGS
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 281824
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM THE HIGH
CENTER OVER TEXAS/NM WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRACK UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RING OF FIRE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TO FLOW OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOMING TO THE SOUTH OVER
UTAH/CO. THESE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WY THE HARDEST
ALTHOUGH EVERY LOCATION IN OUR CWA STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AFTER 21Z WITH THE HELP OF A
WEAK H7 CIRCULATION ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE VCNTY OF JEFFREY
CITY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BUT NOTHING TOO
OUTRAGEOUS SINCE CUMULUS BASES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 9K. ALTHOUGH
NORTHEAST WY...JOHNSON COUNTY...WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE SLOWLY EXITING JET MAX DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE FCST THERE
WITH THE RESULTANT ADDED LIFTED THERE SINCE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MSTR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS FOR LOWER BASED STORMS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH HALF
OF WY WITH SCT COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY SFC AND
H7 WINDS DRAWING IN DEW POINTS UP IN THE 50S BY THEN...ENOUGH
CLOUDINESS WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE SOLAR HEATING AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE SO ONLY MENTIONED ISOLD T STORMS.
DECREASED POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUE FOR THIS REASON. WITHOUT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OF ANY TYPE...THEIR WILL NOT BE ANY REAL FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. ON WED...THE MAIN HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TAKING THE
VORT LOBES SOUTH WITH IT...RELEGATING THE BEST POPS WED OVER
SOUTHERN WY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUE/WED DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WAS AN
OVERALL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FROM MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON EARLIER RUNS TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. IN
ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NW WYOMING ON
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SE ACROSS WYOMING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA. SO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK QUITE ACTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLUSTERED OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OFF THE MTNS
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
ECMWF SLOWER TRACK OF UPPER LOW WOULD RESULT IN A LOT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON FRIDAY WHILE GFS
SHOWS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHING INTO SE
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DETAILS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE SHORTER TERM
SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POOR CONTINUITY WITH THESE
DETAILS 4-5 DAYS OUT. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE HEART
OF "MONSOON" SEASON IN WYOMING AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE SE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO
MOST HIGHS IN THE 75-85 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER AROUND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS IN MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER. AND...CONVERSELY...SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE MIDDLE OF VALLEYS MAY SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE THREAT OF STORM ACTIVITY WITH
ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WIND WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
WESTERN AVIATION PASSES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE OF THE MOUNTAIN BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INITIATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDED
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER INCREASE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 281824
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1224 PM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM THE HIGH
CENTER OVER TEXAS/NM WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRACK UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RING OF FIRE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TO FLOW OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOMING TO THE SOUTH OVER
UTAH/CO. THESE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WY THE HARDEST
ALTHOUGH EVERY LOCATION IN OUR CWA STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AFTER 21Z WITH THE HELP OF A
WEAK H7 CIRCULATION ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE VCNTY OF JEFFREY
CITY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BUT NOTHING TOO
OUTRAGEOUS SINCE CUMULUS BASES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 9K. ALTHOUGH
NORTHEAST WY...JOHNSON COUNTY...WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE SLOWLY EXITING JET MAX DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE FCST THERE
WITH THE RESULTANT ADDED LIFTED THERE SINCE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MSTR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS FOR LOWER BASED STORMS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH HALF
OF WY WITH SCT COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY SFC AND
H7 WINDS DRAWING IN DEW POINTS UP IN THE 50S BY THEN...ENOUGH
CLOUDINESS WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE SOLAR HEATING AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE SO ONLY MENTIONED ISOLD T STORMS.
DECREASED POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUE FOR THIS REASON. WITHOUT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OF ANY TYPE...THEIR WILL NOT BE ANY REAL FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. ON WED...THE MAIN HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TAKING THE
VORT LOBES SOUTH WITH IT...RELEGATING THE BEST POPS WED OVER
SOUTHERN WY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUE/WED DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WAS AN
OVERALL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FROM MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON EARLIER RUNS TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. IN
ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NW WYOMING ON
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SE ACROSS WYOMING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA. SO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK QUITE ACTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLUSTERED OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OFF THE MTNS
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
ECMWF SLOWER TRACK OF UPPER LOW WOULD RESULT IN A LOT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON FRIDAY WHILE GFS
SHOWS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHING INTO SE
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DETAILS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE SHORTER TERM
SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POOR CONTINUITY WITH THESE
DETAILS 4-5 DAYS OUT. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE HEART
OF "MONSOON" SEASON IN WYOMING AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE SE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO
MOST HIGHS IN THE 75-85 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS LOOK TO BEGIN OVER THE AREA AFTER AROUND
22Z THIS AFTERNOON...THOUGH SOME LOCATIONS IN MOUNTAIN FOOTHILLS
COULD SEE SOME ACTIVITY EARLIER. AND...CONVERSELY...SOME LOCATIONS
IN THE MIDDLE OF VALLEYS MAY SEE GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH
12Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE
AREA DURING THE LATER PORTION OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH
ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE AREA.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

INCREASED MOISTURE WILL LEAVE PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER THE AREA THROUGH THE MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MOST
TERMINALS WILL BE IMPACTED BY THE THREAT OF STORM ACTIVITY WITH
ASSOCIATED PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS. GUSTY WIND WILL BE A THREAT
WITH ANY ACTIVITY. THUNDERSTORMS WILL LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...WITH ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO RETURN AFTER 15Z TUESDAY.
WESTERN AVIATION PASSES WILL ALSO EXPERIENCE OF THE MOUNTAIN BASED
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR INCREASED TURBULENCE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INITIATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDED
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER INCREASE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.


&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KRIW 281016
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
416 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM THE HIGH
CENTER OVER TEXAS/NM WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRACK UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RING OF FIRE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TO FLOW OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOMING TO THE SOUTH OVER
UTAH/CO. THESE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WY THE HARDEST
ALTHOUGH EVERY LOCATION IN OUR CWA STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AFTER 21Z WITH THE HELP OF A
WEAK H7 CIRCULATION ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE VCNTY OF JEFFREY
CITY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BUT NOTHING TOO
OUTRAGEOUS SINCE CUMULUS BASES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 9K. ALTHOUGH
NORTHEAST WY...JOHNSON COUNTY...WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE SLOWLY EXITING JET MAX DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE FCST THERE
WITH THE RESULTANT ADDED LIFTED THERE SINCE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MSTR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS FOR LOWER BASED STORMS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH HALF
OF WY WITH SCT COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY SFC AND
H7 WINDS DRAWING IN DEW POINTS UP IN THE 50S BY THEN...ENOUGH
CLOUDINESS WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE SOLAR HEATING AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE SO ONLY MENTIONED ISOLD T STORMS.
DECREASED POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUE FOR THIS REASON. WITHOUT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OF ANY TYPE...THEIR WILL NOT BE ANY REAL FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. ON WED...THE MAIN HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TAKING THE
VORT LOBES SOUTH WITH IT...RELEGATING THE BEST POPS WED OVER
SOUTHERN WY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUE/WED DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WAS AN
OVERALL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FROM MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON EARLIER RUNS TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. IN
ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NW WYOMING ON
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SE ACROSS WYOMING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA. SO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK QUITE ACTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLUSTERED OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OFF THE MTNS
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
ECMWF SLOWER TRACK OF UPPER LOW WOULD RESULT IN A LOT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON FRIDAY WHILE GFS
SHOWS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHING INTO SE
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DETAILS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE SHORTER TERM
SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POOR CONTINUITY WITH THESE
DETAILS 4-5 DAYS OUT. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE HEART
OF "MONSOON" SEASON IN WYOMING AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE SE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO
MOST HIGHS IN THE 75-85 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING WEST...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE FUEL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE AREA...A DISTURBANCE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST
SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
KJAC-KPNA-50NE KRKS LINE...WHILE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN FROM
KWRL-KPOY. ALSO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BEGIN 1-3 HOURS EARLIER
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH...BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS DUE LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AT
THE ONSET...AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
LINGER IN SPOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN HOUR OR LESS.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED FROM THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A BKN-OVC CEILING
BETWEEN 080-120 KFT AGL DEVELOPS. THIS MID LEVEL CEILING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INITIATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDED
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER INCREASE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 281016
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
416 AM MDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING ALONG THE ROCKIES FROM THE HIGH
CENTER OVER TEXAS/NM WILL BE WEAKENING DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS AS A SERIES OF WEAK VORT LOBES TRACK UP AND OVER THE RIDGE.
THIS WILL ALLOW THE RING OF FIRE...SCT THUNDERSTORMS AND SCT TO
NUMEROUS SHOWERS...TO FLOW OVER AND THROUGH THE RIDGE AND ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WY DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.
CURRENTLY...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE LOOMING TO THE SOUTH OVER
UTAH/CO. THESE STORMS SHOULD ARRIVE MAINLY AFTER 21Z THIS AFTERNOON
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD HIT SOUTHERN AND WESTERN WY THE HARDEST
ALTHOUGH EVERY LOCATION IN OUR CWA STANDS A CHANCE OF SEEING SOME
SHOWER ACTIVITY THIS AFTERNOON AND EVE AFTER 21Z WITH THE HELP OF A
WEAK H7 CIRCULATION ESTABLISHING ITSELF IN THE VCNTY OF JEFFREY
CITY. BRIEF GUSTY WINDS SHOULD ACCOMPANY THESE STORMS BUT NOTHING TOO
OUTRAGEOUS SINCE CUMULUS BASES SHOULD AVERAGE AROUND 9K. ALTHOUGH
NORTHEAST WY...JOHNSON COUNTY...WILL BE CLOSER TO THE RIGHT REAR QUAD
OF THE SLOWLY EXITING JET MAX DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF
DAYS...DECIDED NOT TO MENTION GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL IN THE FCST THERE
WITH THE RESULTANT ADDED LIFTED THERE SINCE AVAILABLE MONSOONAL MSTR
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT WILL BE SOMEWHAT MINIMAL. THESE STORMS WILL
HELP MOISTEN THE MID LEVELS FOR LOWER BASED STORMS ON TUESDAY.
TUESDAY WILL FEATURE NUMEROUS SHOWERS IN PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH HALF
OF WY WITH SCT COVERAGE ELSEWHERE. HOWEVER...WITH EASTERLY SFC AND
H7 WINDS DRAWING IN DEW POINTS UP IN THE 50S BY THEN...ENOUGH
CLOUDINESS WILL OFFSET SOME OF THE SOLAR HEATING AND RESULTANT
CONVECTION TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVE SO ONLY MENTIONED ISOLD T STORMS.
DECREASED POPS EVER SO SLIGHTLY TUE FOR THIS REASON. WITHOUT A
SURFACE BOUNDARY OF ANY TYPE...THEIR WILL NOT BE ANY REAL FOCUS
FOR STORM DEVELOPMENT. THE MAIN THREAT WITH THESE STORMS WILL BE
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL GIVEN THE ABUNDANT MONSOON MOISTURE AND
LIGHT WINDS ALOFT. ON WED...THE MAIN HIGH WILL DRIFT TO THE
SOUTHERN DESERT SOUTHWEST WITH THE FLOW AROUND THE HIGH TAKING THE
VORT LOBES SOUTH WITH IT...RELEGATING THE BEST POPS WED OVER
SOUTHERN WY. TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TUE/WED DUE TO THE ADDED
CLOUDS/PRECIP.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
THE MAIN CHANGE WITH THE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE TONIGHT WAS AN
OVERALL EASTWARD SHIFT OF THE MONSOONAL PLUME OF MOISTURE THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY...FROM MAINLY WEST OF THE DIVIDE ON EARLIER RUNS TO
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE ON THE LATEST GUIDANCE. IN
ADDITION...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE AN UPPER LEVEL LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM CRESTING THE UPPER RIDGE OVER NW WYOMING ON
THURSDAY AND SLOWLY DRIFTING SE ACROSS WYOMING FRIDAY AND FRIDAY
NIGHT. THE ECMWF IS A BIT SLOWER MOVING THIS SYSTEM OUT OF THE
AREA. SO BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY NOW LOOK QUITE ACTIVE WITH
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY CLUSTERED OVER THE WESTERN MTNS ON THURSDAY
WITH WIDELY SCATTERED TO ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REST OF
THE AREA. MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE SE OFF THE MTNS
INTO CENTRAL WYOMING THURSDAY EVENING AND POSSIBLY OVERNIGHT.
ECMWF SLOWER TRACK OF UPPER LOW WOULD RESULT IN A LOT MORE
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING ON FRIDAY WHILE GFS
SHOWS THE BRUNT OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY PUSHING INTO SE
WYOMING AND EASTERN COLORADO BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. THESE DETAILS
WILL MORE THAN LIKELY HAVE TO BE SORTED OUT IN THE SHORTER TERM
SINCE MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS SHOWING POOR CONTINUITY WITH THESE
DETAILS 4-5 DAYS OUT. THE BIG PICTURE IS THAT WE ARE IN THE HEART
OF "MONSOON" SEASON IN WYOMING AND THE PLUME OF MOISTURE IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN OVER US THROUGH NEXT WEEKEND. EXPECT AT LEAST
ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO BLOSSOM WITH DAYTIME
HEATING OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN AND MOVE SE ACROSS MAINLY THE
SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE MODERATED BY CLOUD COVER AND A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER...SO
MOST HIGHS IN THE 75-85 DEGREE RANGE THROUGH THIS PERIOD WITH
LITTLE DAY TO DAY VARIATION.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A COMBINATION OF GULF MOISTURE PUSHING WEST...AND MONSOONAL MOISTURE
PUSHING NORTH INTO THE AREA WILL DRAMATICALLY INCREASE THE FUEL FOR
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY
SHOULD REMAIN RELATIVELY WEAK OVER THE AREA...A DISTURBANCE IN THE
MONSOONAL FLOW AND DAYTIME HEATING WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ISOLATED
TO LOCALLY SCATTERED CONVECTION ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA. THE BEST
SHOT FOR THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHWEST OF
KJAC-KPNA-50NE KRKS LINE...WHILE THE LEAST AMOUNT OF COVERAGE IS
EXPECTED IN THE INTERIOR PORTIONS OF THE BIG HORN BASIN FROM
KWRL-KPOY. ALSO CONVECTION IS EXPECTED TO BE BEGIN 1-3 HOURS EARLIER
OVER THE WEST AND SOUTH...BEFORE SPREADING/DEVELOPING EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE SLOW MOVERS DUE LIGHT
STEERING CURRENTS. THE RELATIVELY HIGH BASED ACTIVITY ESPECIALLY AT
THE ONSET...AND STEEP LOW/MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES COULD ALSO RESULT IN
SOME STRONG WIND GUSTS AND SMALL HAIL. SOME CONVECTION WILL LIKELY
LINGER IN SPOTS THROUGH MUCH OF THE NIGHT. TERMINALS ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD...EXCEPT FOR BRIEF
BOUTS OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...ON THE ORDER OF AN HOUR OR LESS.
MOUNTAIN TOPS WILL BECOME OBSCURED FROM THE SOUTHWEST SPREADING
NORTHEAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS A BKN-OVC CEILING
BETWEEN 080-120 KFT AGL DEVELOPS. THIS MID LEVEL CEILING IS EXPECTED
TO REMAIN ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS WILL LAST OVER THE AREA THROUGH THIS MORNING.
BEGINNING EARLY THIS AFTERNOON...A SURGE OF MOISTURE WILL MOVE
OVER PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA WHICH ARE WEST OF THE DIVIDE.
THIS MOISTURE WILL INCREASE CLOUD COVER AND INITIATE SOME SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE AREA. EXPECT SLIGHTLY COOLER
TEMPERATURES AS WELL WITH ELEVATED HUMIDITY. AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE WILL ALSO SEE INCREASED HUMIDITY IN RESPONSE TO THE ADDED
MOISTURE. HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL NOT BE AS
WIDESPREAD. ADDITIONALLY...CLOUD COVER INCREASE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE AS SIGNIFICANT...ALLOWING TEMPERATURES TO
CONTINUE THEIR WARMING TREND. WIND ARE EXPECTED TO BE LIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities