Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS65 KRIW 252120
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
320 PM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

A DISTURBANCE WILL LEAVE A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN SWEETWATER
AND SOUTHEASTERN NATRONA COUNTIES TODAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY SHOULD
GENERALLY END BY THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE REMAINING OVER THE AREA. THIS RIDGE WILL GENERALLY LEAVE
DRY CONDITIONS OVER THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.

WARM TEMPERATURES...DRY HUMIDITY...AND GUSTY WINDS TO 30 MPH WILL
PERMIT THE RED FLAG WARNING TO CONTINUE ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY
THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING. SIMILAR TO THE PAST COUPLE DAYS...CRITICAL
CONDITIONS WILL LULL DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...BUT INCREASE
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON HOURS. OTHERWISE...A RELATIVELY BENIGN DAY IS
EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WITH HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NW NORTHERN PLAINS AND LOW SURFACE
PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT BASIN...LOW LEVEL FLOW ON SUNDAY WILL BE
GENERALLY EASTERLY. HOWEVER...THE MID TO UPPER LEVELS WILL BE
FAIRLY DRY...THUS MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES AND NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BY MONDAY...THE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES WILL BEGIN
TO BRING SOME INSTABILITY AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD OVER
WYOMING. SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP IN THE AFTERNOON AND
FOCUS BOTH ACROSS SOUTHWEST WY AND THE BOUNDARY HELD UP ON THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY APPEARS TO BE
ISOLATED AT THIS TIME. THE GFS IS EMPHASIZING PRECIPITATION DURING
THE MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME...AS COMPARED TO THE ECMWF AND TYPICAL
DIURNAL PATTERN. HAVE KEPT THE FORECAST MORE IN LINE WITH THE
ECMWF FOR THIS EXTENDED PERIOD. ON TUESDAY...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH
MOVES NORTHWARD FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO CENTRAL IDAHO. DYNAMICS
AND MOISTURE ARE POINTING TO TUESDAY BEING A DAY OF WIDESPREAD
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA...ALTHOUGH THEY DON`T
APPEAR TO BE TERRIBLY STRONG AT THIS TIME. THERE COULD BE SOME
POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING SYSTEMS COMBINED WITH THE PRECIPITABLE
WATER VALUES OVER AN INCH THAT GENERATE HEAVY RAIN AND POSSIBLE
FLASH FLOODING.

AS THE TROUGH ROUNDS THE TOP OF THE RIDGE...THE FOCUS ON WEDNESDAY
SHIFTS TO WESTERN WYOMING WITH THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. LOW LEVEL
EASTERLY WILL KEEP MOIST COOL AIR IN THE CENTRAL TO EASTERN PART
OF THE STATE. EXPECTING CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY TO TAPER OFF IN LATE
EVENING HOURS...WHEREAS TUESDAY NIGHT THE ACTIVITY IS POSSIBLE TO
CONTINUE ALL NIGHT.

AT THIS POINT IS WHERE A SUBTLE DIFFERENCE APPEARS BETWEEN THE 12Z
GFS AND 12Z ECMWF...THE ECMWF BRINGS ANOTHER WEAK TROUGH INTO
SOUTHERN MONTANA THURSDAY TO ACCENTUATE THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY IN
NORTHWEST WYOMING AS WELL AS KEEP TEMPERATURES A LITTLE COOLER.
THE GFS HOWEVER KEEPS THE TROUGH BACK IN EASTERN OREGON AND
AMPLIFIES THE RIDGE UP THE SPINE OF THE ROCKIES FOR A DRIER
THURSDAY. A SWITCH OCCURS ON FRIDAY WHEN THE GFS IS WET AND THE
ECMWF GOES DRY IN WESTERN WYOMING. BOTH MODELS INDICATE NEAR
NORMAL TEMPS FOR THE LATTER END OF THE WEEK. OVERALL IT WILL BE AN
ACTIVE WEEK NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE
SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KRKS TO KCPR...MAINLY THROUGH 02Z THIS
EVENING. GUSTY WIND ACROSS SOUTHEASTERN WYOMING SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER
03Z THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF GUSTY
WIND WILL RETURN TO KRKS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST OVER THE MAJORITY OF
CRITICALLY DRY ZONES THROUGH THIS EVENING. MUCH OF THE AREA WILL SEE
RELIEF FROM RED FLAG CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHED WIND UNDER THE
PRESENCE OF THE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE. HOWEVER...SWEETWATER COUNTY
WILL AGAIN SEE AN INCREASE IN WIND DURING SATURDAY AFTERNOON. WITH
HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO REMAIN AS WELL...THE RED FLAG
WARNING FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONE 279 HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH SATURDAY
EVENING. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST...BUT
WEAKENED WIND WILL KEEP CONDITIONS FROM EXPERIENCING WIDESPREAD
CRITICAL FIRE BEHAVIOR THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT SATURDAY WYZ279.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...MCDONALD
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM








000
FXUS65 KRIW 251756
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1156 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING FLAT UPR RIDGE W/ HIGH CENTERED OVR ERN NM. TROF
THAT HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE IS RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MT/CA BORDER.
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOW BEEN MAINLY PUSHED SWD INTO
NRN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESS TO THE E IN WRN SD...HIGH PRESS W AND
OVR THE PAC NW. WEAK DRY SFC FRONT CUTTING RIGHT THRU WY FROM NE TO
SW. DEEP DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FA FROM THE SW/W TODAY. UPR HIGH
OVR SWRN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...JUST SLOWLY TRENDING WWD THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEP DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR
THE WY/CO BORDER REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER
...INCLUDING RED FLAG WARNINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND
ERN ZONES THRU 9 PM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE THE CODY
FOOTHILLS (ZONE 276) FROM THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY AS THIS AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE BOTH THE WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOW ELEVATIONS SITES...60S AND 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
MID TEENS FOR MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS...20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST 15 TO 25 MPH FROM
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RED FLAG AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER AND SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN SRN WY...MAINLY TARGETING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. MUCH OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT QUITE REACH THE WIND CRITERIA NEEDED FOR THE RFW...BECAUSE OF
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...BUT IT IS TOO CLOSE TO
NOT TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING AND THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO REACH THE MIN CRITERIA. STILL...ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL BE UNDER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER FOR ONE
REASON OR ANOTHER.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COOL FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE
WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO
RELAX FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY ACROSS
MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 279) NEAREST LOW PRESSURE TO THE
S IN COLORADO. NOT GOING THE EXTEND THE RFW FOR ANY ZONES
ATTM...INCLUDING ZONE 279 AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST
BELOW RFW CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL CERTAINLY BE LOW
AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MAY NOT BE THERE. WILL
MONITOR FURTHER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A DECISION BEFORE EXPIRATION
LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...UPR RIDGE ROTATES AND AMPLIFIES ABOVE THE
FA...TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THEN TO WEAK ZONAL
AS AXIS ALIGNS N/S THRU THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISING.
WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH SFC
HIGH P NOW E OF THE CWA AND LOWER P TO THE SW...AND ONLY A MODEST AT
BEST P GRAD AND WEAKENING UPR LVL FLOW AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
AMPLIFIES AND ORIENTS OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS
DAY. MAY BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WHERE LOW MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE UP FROM THE SW IN WEAK RING O FIRE...OVR THE SW
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  LIKE AN L.A.
FREEWAY AT RUSH HOUR...LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

HOWEVER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE`S PATH WILL BE UNIMPEDED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING A NORTHWARD SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SW WYOMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE INTO WYOMING FROM THE EAST...WITH THIS MOISTURE CONVERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING BY TUESDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER.  SO ON MONDAY...INITIAL PLUME OF MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SW MONDAY MORNING/EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
UP ON TUESDAY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WITH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.  FORECAST TRENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SUPPRESSION
OF THE GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PLUME OF
MOISTURE SANDWICHED ALONG THE DIVIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...NW FLOW ALOFT.  STORM MOTION WILL BE
SE...SO MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER RANGES.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION...BROADENING OF FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS THAT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH PLUME
OF MOISTURE...THE "RING OF FIRE" OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE WYOMING DIVIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KRKS TO KCPR...MAINLY AFTER 19Z
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
INCREASING AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN TO KRKS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TODAY OVER THOSE THE PAST FEW DAYS...VERY
WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. MOST
OF THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. SIMILAR
BUT WEAKENING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN OVER THE WARNED AREAS
BEHIND ANOTHER DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...WHILE HAINES INDEX WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 4 AND 5.
FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE
279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 251756
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1156 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING FLAT UPR RIDGE W/ HIGH CENTERED OVR ERN NM. TROF
THAT HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE IS RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MT/CA BORDER.
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOW BEEN MAINLY PUSHED SWD INTO
NRN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESS TO THE E IN WRN SD...HIGH PRESS W AND
OVR THE PAC NW. WEAK DRY SFC FRONT CUTTING RIGHT THRU WY FROM NE TO
SW. DEEP DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FA FROM THE SW/W TODAY. UPR HIGH
OVR SWRN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...JUST SLOWLY TRENDING WWD THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEP DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR
THE WY/CO BORDER REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER
...INCLUDING RED FLAG WARNINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND
ERN ZONES THRU 9 PM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE THE CODY
FOOTHILLS (ZONE 276) FROM THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY AS THIS AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE BOTH THE WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOW ELEVATIONS SITES...60S AND 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
MID TEENS FOR MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS...20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST 15 TO 25 MPH FROM
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RED FLAG AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER AND SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN SRN WY...MAINLY TARGETING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. MUCH OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT QUITE REACH THE WIND CRITERIA NEEDED FOR THE RFW...BECAUSE OF
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...BUT IT IS TOO CLOSE TO
NOT TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING AND THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO REACH THE MIN CRITERIA. STILL...ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL BE UNDER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER FOR ONE
REASON OR ANOTHER.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COOL FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE
WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO
RELAX FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY ACROSS
MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 279) NEAREST LOW PRESSURE TO THE
S IN COLORADO. NOT GOING THE EXTEND THE RFW FOR ANY ZONES
ATTM...INCLUDING ZONE 279 AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST
BELOW RFW CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL CERTAINLY BE LOW
AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MAY NOT BE THERE. WILL
MONITOR FURTHER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A DECISION BEFORE EXPIRATION
LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...UPR RIDGE ROTATES AND AMPLIFIES ABOVE THE
FA...TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THEN TO WEAK ZONAL
AS AXIS ALIGNS N/S THRU THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISING.
WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH SFC
HIGH P NOW E OF THE CWA AND LOWER P TO THE SW...AND ONLY A MODEST AT
BEST P GRAD AND WEAKENING UPR LVL FLOW AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
AMPLIFIES AND ORIENTS OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS
DAY. MAY BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WHERE LOW MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE UP FROM THE SW IN WEAK RING O FIRE...OVR THE SW
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  LIKE AN L.A.
FREEWAY AT RUSH HOUR...LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

HOWEVER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE`S PATH WILL BE UNIMPEDED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING A NORTHWARD SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SW WYOMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE INTO WYOMING FROM THE EAST...WITH THIS MOISTURE CONVERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING BY TUESDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER.  SO ON MONDAY...INITIAL PLUME OF MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SW MONDAY MORNING/EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
UP ON TUESDAY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WITH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.  FORECAST TRENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SUPPRESSION
OF THE GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PLUME OF
MOISTURE SANDWICHED ALONG THE DIVIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...NW FLOW ALOFT.  STORM MOTION WILL BE
SE...SO MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER RANGES.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION...BROADENING OF FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS THAT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH PLUME
OF MOISTURE...THE "RING OF FIRE" OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE WYOMING DIVIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS WILL BE
POSSIBLE SOUTHEAST OF A LINE FROM KRKS TO KCPR...MAINLY AFTER 19Z
TODAY. GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO BE FOUND THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY
INCREASING AFTER 18Z THIS AFTERNOON. WIND SHOULD WEAKEN AFTER 03Z
THIS EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND ACROSS THE AREA ON
SATURDAY UNDER THE PRESENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. ANOTHER ROUND OF
GUSTY WIND WILL RETURN TO KRKS AFTER 18Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TODAY OVER THOSE THE PAST FEW DAYS...VERY
WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. MOST
OF THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. SIMILAR
BUT WEAKENING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN OVER THE WARNED AREAS
BEHIND ANOTHER DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...WHILE HAINES INDEX WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 4 AND 5.
FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE
279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...BRANHAM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN






000
FXUS65 KRIW 250931
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
331 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING FLAT UPR RIDGE W/ HIGH CENTERED OVR ERN NM. TROF
THAT HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE IS RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MT/CA BORDER.
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOW BEEN MAINLY PUSHED SWD INTO
NRN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESS TO THE E IN WRN SD...HIGH PRESS W AND
OVR THE PAC NW. WEAK DRY SFC FRONT CUTTING RIGHT THRU WY FROM NE TO
SW. DEEP DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FA FROM THE SW/W TODAY. UPR HIGH
OVR SWRN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...JUST SLOWLY TRENDING WWD THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEP DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR
THE WY/CO BORDER REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER
...INCLUDING RED FLAG WARNINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND
ERN ZONES THRU 9 PM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE THE CODY
FOOTHILLS (ZONE 276) FROM THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY AS THIS AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE BOTH THE WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOW ELEVATIONS SITES...60S AND 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
MID TEENS FOR MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS...20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST 15 TO 25 MPH FROM
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RED FLAG AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER AND SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN SRN WY...MAINLY TARGETING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. MUCH OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT QUITE REACH THE WIND CRITERIA NEEDED FOR THE RFW...BECAUSE OF
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...BUT IT IS TOO CLOSE TO
NOT TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING AND THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO REACH THE MIN CRITERIA. STILL...ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL BE UNDER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER FOR ONE
REASON OR ANOTHER.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COOL FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE
WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO
RELAX FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY ACROSS
MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 279) NEAREST LOW PRESSURE TO THE
S IN COLORADO. NOT GOING THE EXTEND THE RFW FOR ANY ZONES
ATTM...INCLUDING ZONE 279 AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST
BELOW RFW CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL CERTAINLY BE LOW
AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MAY NOT BE THERE. WILL
MONITOR FURTHER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A DECISION BEFORE EXPIRATION
LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...UPR RIDGE ROTATES AND AMPLIFIES ABOVE THE
FA...TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THEN TO WEAK ZONAL
AS AXIS ALIGNS N/S THRU THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISING.
WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH SFC
HIGH P NOW E OF THE CWA AND LOWER P TO THE SW...AND ONLY A MODEST AT
BEST P GRAD AND WEAKENING UPR LVL FLOW AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
AMPLIFIES AND ORIENTS OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS
DAY. MAY BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WHERE LOW MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE UP FROM THE SW IN WEAK RING O FIRE...OVR THE SW
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  LIKE AN L.A.
FREEWAY AT RUSH HOUR...LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

HOWEVER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE`S PATH WILL BE UNIMPEDED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING A NORTHWARD SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SW WYOMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE INTO WYOMING FROM THE EAST...WITH THIS MOISTURE CONVERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING BY TUESDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER.  SO ON MONDAY...INITIAL PLUME OF MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SW MONDAY MORNING/EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
UP ON TUESDAY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WITH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.  FORECAST TRENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SUPPRESSION
OF THE GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PLUME OF
MOISTURE SANDWICHED ALONG THE DIVIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...NW FLOW ALOFT.  STORM MOTION WILL BE
SE...SO MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER RANGES.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION...BROADENING OF FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS THAT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH PLUME
OF MOISTURE...THE "RING OF FIRE" OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE WYOMING DIVIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KDGW-
KRWL LINE.  THE SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON. WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING...NEAR A VCNTY KCPR-KLND
LINE BY 03Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TODAY OVER THOSE THE PAST FEW DAYS...VERY
WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. MOST
OF THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. SIMILAR
BUT WEAKENING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN OVER THE WARNED AREAS
BEHIND ANOTHER DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...WHILE HAINES INDEX WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 4 AND 5.
FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE
279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 250931
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
331 AM MDT FRI JUL 25 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING FLAT UPR RIDGE W/ HIGH CENTERED OVR ERN NM. TROF
THAT HAS FLATTENED THE RIDGE IS RUNNING EWD ALONG THE MT/CA BORDER.
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE HAS NOW BEEN MAINLY PUSHED SWD INTO
NRN CO. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESS TO THE E IN WRN SD...HIGH PRESS W AND
OVR THE PAC NW. WEAK DRY SFC FRONT CUTTING RIGHT THRU WY FROM NE TO
SW. DEEP DRY AIR HAS MOVED INTO THE FA FROM THE SW/W TODAY. UPR HIGH
OVR SWRN CONUS REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART FOR THE NEXT FEW
DAYS...JUST SLOWLY TRENDING WWD THRU THE FCST PERIOD.

TODAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEP DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...WITH
VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR
THE WY/CO BORDER REGION. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY...INCREASED FIRE DANGER
...INCLUDING RED FLAG WARNINGS...WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND
ERN ZONES THRU 9 PM TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WILL REMOVE THE CODY
FOOTHILLS (ZONE 276) FROM THE RED FLAG WARNINGS TODAY AS THIS AREA
BEHIND THE FRONT DOES NOT LOOK TO PRODUCE BOTH THE WINDS AND LOW RH
VALUES NEEDED. OTHERWISE...DAYTIME TEMPS WILL COOL INTO THE UPR 80S
AND LOWER 90S FOR MOST LOW ELEVATIONS SITES...60S AND 70 IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MIN RH VALUES WILL RANGE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE
MID TEENS FOR MOST BASINS AND VALLEYS...20S IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS
BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON WILL BLOW OUT OF THE WEST 15 TO 25 MPH FROM
CENTRAL TO SOUTHERN WYOMING...INCLUDING THE MOUNTAINS. THE STRONGEST
WINDS IN THE RED FLAG AREAS LOOK TO REMAIN UNDER AND SOUTH OF THE
DEVELOPING LOW IN SRN WY...MAINLY TARGETING THE SOUTH CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN ZONES. MUCH OF FREMONT AND NATRONA COUNTIES WILL PROBABLY
NOT QUITE REACH THE WIND CRITERIA NEEDED FOR THE RFW...BECAUSE OF
POSITION RELATIVE TO THE DEVELOPING SFC LOW...BUT IT IS TOO CLOSE TO
NOT TO KEEP THE WARNING GOING AND THERE WILL CERTAINLY BE AT LEAST
ISOLATED AREAS THAT DO REACH THE MIN CRITERIA. STILL...ALL OTHER
LOCATIONS ACROSS THE FA WILL BE UNDER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER FOR ONE
REASON OR ANOTHER.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF ANOTHER
COOL FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE
WHERE THE FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO
RELAX FOR MOST LOCATIONS...WITH STRONGEST WINDS OF THE DAY ACROSS
MAINLY SWEETWATER COUNTY (FIRE ZONE 279) NEAREST LOW PRESSURE TO THE
S IN COLORADO. NOT GOING THE EXTEND THE RFW FOR ANY ZONES
ATTM...INCLUDING ZONE 279 AS IT LOOKS LIKE WINDS MAY REMAIN JUST
BELOW RFW CRITERIA...ALTHOUGH MIN RH VALUES WILL CERTAINLY BE LOW
AGAIN. THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO WILL MAY NOT BE THERE. WILL
MONITOR FURTHER OVR THE NEXT 24 HRS FOR A DECISION BEFORE EXPIRATION
LATER TONIGHT.

SUNDAY...UPR RIDGE ROTATES AND AMPLIFIES ABOVE THE
FA...TRANSITIONING FROM ZONAL TO NORTHWEST FLOW...THEN TO WEAK ZONAL
AS AXIS ALIGNS N/S THRU THE REGION WITH HEIGHTS AND TEMPS RISING.
WARMER WITH HIGHS WELL BACK INTO THE MID 80S TO NEAR 90. WITH SFC
HIGH P NOW E OF THE CWA AND LOWER P TO THE SW...AND ONLY A MODEST AT
BEST P GRAD AND WEAKENING UPR LVL FLOW AS THE RIDGE EXPANDS
AMPLIFIES AND ORIENTS OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL NOT BE AN ISSUE THIS
DAY. MAY BE A VERY SMALL CHANCE FOR SHRA/TSRA WHERE LOW MOISTURE
WILL ROTATE UP FROM THE SW IN WEAK RING O FIRE...OVR THE SW
MOUNTAINS.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

BLOCKING PATTERN SETS UP ACROSS NORTH AMERICA DURING THIS PERIOD
WITH HIGH AMPLITUDE RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC KEEPING LONGWAVE
TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN U.S. WITH UPPER RIDGE OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN
WEST...UPPER TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  LIKE AN L.A.
FREEWAY AT RUSH HOUR...LITTLE MOVEMENT WILL OCCUR WITH THESE
SYNOPTIC FEATURES.

HOWEVER...MONSOONAL MOISTURE`S PATH WILL BE UNIMPEDED AROUND THE
PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE...MAKING A NORTHWARD SURGE ACROSS THE GREAT
BASIN INTO SW WYOMING ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY WHILE RETURN FLOW
AROUND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS BRINGS GULF
MOISTURE INTO WYOMING FROM THE EAST...WITH THIS MOISTURE CONVERGING
ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TWO-THIRDS OF WYOMING BY TUESDAY WITH PWAT
VALUES OF 1 INCH OR GREATER.  SO ON MONDAY...INITIAL PLUME OF MAINLY
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BRING AN INITIAL ROUND OF ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE SW MONDAY MORNING/EARLY
MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH THIS ACTIVITY EXPECTED TO SPREAD NORTH AND
EAST DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  AS LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN
UP ON TUESDAY EXPECT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME HEAVY RAIN
PRODUCERS...ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL WITH LESS ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE NORTH WHERE THERE WILL BE LESS MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO WORK
WITH.  FORECAST TRENDS HIGH TEMPERATURES ON TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH
SEVERAL DEGREES COOLER WITH EXPECTED CLOUD COVER AND CONVECTION
THROUGH THE DAY.

ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOW SOME SUPPRESSION
OF THE GULF MOISTURE FEED FROM CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS WITH PLUME OF
MOISTURE SANDWICHED ALONG THE DIVIDE ALONG AND WEST OF THE DIVIDE
WITH LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW...NW FLOW ALOFT.  STORM MOTION WILL BE
SE...SO MOST ACTIVITY IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NEARLY
PARALLEL TO THE SOUTHERN ABSAROKA AND WIND RIVER RANGES.

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS SHOW SOME DE-AMPLIFICATION...BROADENING OF FLOW
ACROSS THE CONUS FRIDAY.  THIS WILL BE A SLOW PROCESS THAT WILL
RESULT IN LITTLE OR NO CHANGE TO PATTERN OVER THE ROCKIES WITH PLUME
OF MOISTURE...THE "RING OF FIRE" OF CONVECTION LIKELY TO REMAIN OVER
THE GREAT BASIN AND ALONG THE WYOMING DIVIDE FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ANY
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY WILL BE SUPPRESSED VCNTY AND SOUTH OF A KDGW-
KRWL LINE.  THE SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID
AFTERNOON. WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL
AND NORTHERN MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL
SURGE SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL WYOMING THIS EVENING...NEAR A VCNTY KCPR-KLND
LINE BY 03Z...WITH WINDS SHIFTING NORTH AND THEN GRADUALLY
DIMINISHING AFTER 06Z SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH TONIGHT...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING
PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED ACROSS
THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TODAY OVER THOSE THE PAST FEW DAYS...VERY
WARM TO HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S AND LOWER 90S WILL
COMBINE WITH A DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM
THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING WEST WINDS. MOST
OF THE ENHANCED FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE TIED TO ANOTHER
RELATIVELY STRONG SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
FORECAST AREA THAT WILL ALSO COMBINE WITH DECENT MID/UPPER LEVEL
FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING ACROSS MOST OF THE WARNED AREA. SIMILAR
BUT WEAKENING CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT SATURDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE SOMEWHAT COOLER AGAIN OVER THE WARNED AREAS
BEHIND ANOTHER DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND DRY.
HOWEVER...BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND UPPER LEVEL FLOW
SHOULD WEAKEN JUST ENOUGH TO KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS...WHILE HAINES INDEX WILL GENERALLY FALL BETWEEN 4 AND 5.
FIRE DANGER WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE
279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 250504
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1104 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF
5 TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP SOME IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY
WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.
ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC






000
FXUS65 KRIW 250504
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1104 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

GENERALLY CLEAR SKY WITH VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. THE
SURFACE WIND WILL ONCE AGAIN INCREASE BY MID AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.
WEST WIND COULD BE GUSTY...ESPECIALLY ALONG THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN RANGES OF WYOMING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF
5 TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL
FIRE CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME
UP SOME IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY.
OTHERWISE... EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE
THROUGH FRIDAY. THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO
THE CENTRAL ZONES TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE
PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY
WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH.
ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR
279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA
WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S
BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE
IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...KPL
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC





000
FXUS65 KRIW 242141
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
275...276...279...280...281...282...283...285...287 AND 300...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR 275...281 AND 282 UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RH.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ275-281-282.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC








000
FXUS65 KRIW 242141
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
341 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
275...276...279...280...281...282...283...285...287 AND 300...

UPDATED TO INCLUDE RED FLAG WARNINGS FOR 275...281 AND 282 UNTIL
9 PM THIS EVENING FOR WIND AND LOW RH.

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ275-281-282.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC







000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC










000
FXUS65 KRIW 242000
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
200 PM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND FRIDAY

SUBTROPICAL PLUME WHICH BROUGHT WEAK MORNING CONVECTION WITH GUSTY
WIND TO 40 MPH IS NOW BRINGING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO THE MIX FOR
OUR SERN THIRD. AIRMASS HAS ACTUALLY JUICED UP IN THE FAR SOUTH SO
RED FLAG WARNING IS ACTUALLY STRUGGLING TO VERIFY DUE TO THE HIGHER
DEW POINTS AND COOLER TEMPERATURES. OTHERWISE...HOT AND DUSTY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE FURTHER NORTH. ONE OTHER ITEM OF NOTE TODAY IS
SOME MOUNTAIN WAVE ACTION GOING ON IN CENTRAL WYO WITH STRONG SW
WINDS MIXING DOWN AT TIMES BETWEEN 40 AND 50 MPH. BEEFED UP WINDS
SOME MORE TO COVER THIS. ONE AREA TO WATCH OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL
HOURS WILL BE OUR NERN ZONES WHERE SURFACE LOW IS SITTING WITH VERY
MOIST AIRMASS JUST TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FRONTAL BOUNDARY AIDED BY
APPROACHING UPPER LOW WILL LIKELY PUSH SOUTH INTO THE AREA SO
POTENTIAL FOR A FEW STRONGER STORMS EXIST FOR A COUPLE HOURS INTO
THE EVENING UP THERE IN JOHNSON COUNTY. FLOW TURNS MORE WLY ON
FRIDAY SO MONSOONAL PLUME SHOULD BE PUSHED SOUTH TO THE NRN CO
BORDER WITH ONLY FAR SERN SWEETWATER SEEING THE POTENTIAL FOR ISOLD
TSTMS. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH SAGS SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYO TONIGHT
WILL WASH OUR ON FRIDAY ACROSS ALL BUT POTENTIALLY THE NERN ZONES
LEADING TO ANOTHER HOT DAY WITH LOW RH`S AND GUSTY WEST WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE CANADIAN AND MONTANA BORDER WILL
CAUSE THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO FLATTEN FRIDAY EVENING. THE
RESULTANT ZONAL FLOW WILL REMAIN DRY...THOUGH THE INFLUENCE OF THE
LOW WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA ON
SATURDAY. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL WORK TO AMPLIFY AGAIN
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. AS THE SYSTEM AMPLIFIES...IT MAY
PERMIT SOME MOISTURE TO MOVE INT SOUTHERN WYOMING SATURDAY WITH SOME
ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER POSSIBLE.

THE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO AMPLIFY AND MOVE EAST THROUGH SUNDAY. THE
AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE OVER WESTERN WYOMING BY SUNDAY EVENING.
THE AXIS WILL STRUGGLE TO MOVE FULLY INTO THE STATE AS A SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW IMPACT THE FORECAST AREA. DISTURBANCES WILL
BRING REPEATING PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. AN UPSLOPE COMPONENT IS POSSIBLE DURING
THESE SHOWERS...WHICH INCREASES THE CHANCES FOR ACTIVITY ACROSS
FAVORED LOCATIONS. TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE AREA ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
FLUCTUATE SIGNIFICANTLY EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLOUD
COVER...SHOWERS...AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL PERMIT TEMPERATURES TO
REMAIN FAIRLY PERSISTENT EACH AFTERNOON.

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNINGS TO CONTINUE THROUGH 03Z SATURDAY FOR FIRE ZONES
276...279...280...283...285...287 AND 300...

THE COMBINATION OF HOT TEMPERATURES...LOW RH`S...HAINES INDEX OF 5
TO 6 AND GUSTY WEST WIND WILL CONTINUE THE THREAT OF CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. MOISTURE LEVELS HAVE COME UP SOME
IN 279 TODAY BUT IT WILL DRY OUT MORE AGAIN ON FRIDAY. OTHERWISE...
EXPECT MORE CRITICAL FIRE CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE THROUGH FRIDAY.
THERE IS A COOL FRONT THAT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES
TONIGHT BUT IT IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN AND BE PUSHED EAST OF THE AREA
FRIDAY AFTERNOON BUT A DRY...HOT WESTERLY WIND. MANY AREAS WILL SEE
WEST WINDS OF 15 TO 25 MPH DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH
GUSTS VARYING FROM 30 TO 35 MPH. ISOLATED GUSTY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE FOR 279...280...289 AND 300 THROUGH THIS
EVENING. THE REST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE WARM TO HOT WITH GUSTY
WIND AT TIMES WITH MIN RH`S BETWEEN 10 AND 20 PERCENT. CRITICAL FIRE
CONDITIONS MAY CONTINUE IN 279 THROUGH SATURDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ276-279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC











000
FXUS65 KRIW 241716
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT  DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW AND FRONT
SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND
MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL.
BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE
SFC FROM ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI
EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI
EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 241716
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1116 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT  DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET ANOTHER
CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF
THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND POSSIBLE FOR
ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC LOW AND FRONT
SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL ALSO HELP FOCUS
CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL BE WORKING
ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE WEST...AND THIS WILL BE
THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST
PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND
MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION
EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR
BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100
AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE)
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL.
BOTH THE SURFACE PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN
RESPONSE TO THE PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL
INCREASE THE LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE
SFC FROM ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES THROUGH FRI
EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE
CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI
EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHEAST PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR. ISOLATED
STRONGER STORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN JOHNSON COUNTY UNTIL 03Z. A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND
THEN MOVE SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WYOMING BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z FRIDAY.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE PUSHED EAST ON FRIDAY BY A DRY...HOT...
WESTERLY FLOW WITH DRY CONDITIONS FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHEASTERN
CORNER OF SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 240936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
SOME MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL
ALSO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER
THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A
DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO
BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL. BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL INCREASE THE
LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES
THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE
ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO
RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE
REGION. THIS INCLUDES KRKS AND KCPR TERMINAL SITES. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND MOVES SOUTH TO
CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 240936
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
336 AM MDT THU JUL 24 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...STILL SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO
UPR TROFS AND CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
WITH THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE CUTTING THROUGH WY AND UP INTO
ERN MT AND THE DAKOTAS. MOISTURE FROM THE NA MONSOON (LIKE FLOW) IS
NOW SET AND BEGINNING TO EVENTUALLY SPIN MOISTURE INTO THE REGION
FROM THE S CNTRL CONUS...PERHAPS BY THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. IN
THE MEANTIME HOWEVER...DEEP DRY AIR WILL START TO FEED INTO THE FA
FROM THE SW CONUS TODAY AS THE AXIS PORTION OF THE RIDGE ROTATES EWD
AND THE FLOW ALOFT BECOMES STRONGLY UNIDIRECTIONAL AND SW
ORIENTED.

UPR HIGH OVR SWRN CONUS STILL REMAINS IN PLACE FOR THE MOST PART.
HOWEVER...THE N/S AMPLIFICATION OF THE HIGH OVR WY WILL START TO
FLATTEN TODAY AND BEGIN THE SLOW PROGRESSION TO ZONAL AND FINALLY NW
FLOW THRU THE WEEKEND. AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS THE NRN
CONUS BORDER REGION W/ CA...DECREASING HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH
TEMPERATURES...STARTING TODAY WITH HIGH TEMPS COMING IN A FEW DEG
BELOW THOSE ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE W AND NWRN CWA SEEING DROPS OF 5
TO 10 DEG. OTHERWISE...WEAK DISTURBANCES  EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY
OF UPR HIGH THIS MORNING CONTINUE TO ROTATE CLOCKWISE ACROSS OR NEAR
THE FA...CONTINUING ISOLATED  CONVECTIVE CHANCES OVERNIGHT TONIGHT
WITH SMALL RAIN CORES...BUT DRY LIGHTNING AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS
UP TO 55 MPH...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SWRN PORTION OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH A FEW OTHERS IN FREMONT AND JOHNSON COUNTIES. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL SWING THRU THE WRN TO NWRN FA LATER THIS MORNING
FROM OUT OF NRN UTAH...OFFERING MORE SMALL CHCS FOR PESKY EARLY
MORNING CONVECTION TO CONTINUE. THIS AFTERNOON...ANOTHER STRONGER
DISTURBANCE ROTATING AROUND THE NW CONUS LOW WILL COMBINE WITH
SOME MONSOONAL-ISH MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...BRINGING YET
ANOTHER CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...MAINLY ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
PORTIONS OF THE CWA...WITH THE USUAL LIGHTNING AND GUSTY WIND
POSSIBLE FOR ANOTHER DAY IN THIS AREA. A DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT SWINGING OUT OF MT AND STRENGTHENING OVR ERN WY WILL
ALSO HELP FOCUS CONVECTION OVR THE SAME REGION. HOWEVER...DRY AIR
WILL BE WORKING ITS WAY INTO THE FA THRU THE DAY FROM THE
WEST...AND THIS WILL BE THE LAST CHC FOR ANY PRECIP OR THUNDER
THRU THE REST OF THIS FCST PERIOD. FRIDAY WILL BE COOLER...WITH A
DEEPER DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO
CHANCE FOR ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO
BORDER. MORE SIGNIFICANTLY FOR BOTH TODAY AND FRIDAY IS THE
INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE SRN AND ERN
ZONES...WITH THE ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS. TODAY...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S TO NEAR 100 AGAIN WILL COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SW WINDS (AS MENTIONED ABOVE) ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE
WHERE THE DRY FUEL STATUS IS NOW CRITICAL. BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL INCREASE THE
LOCAL P GRAD AND ALSO BRING STRONGER FLOW DOWN TO THE SFC FROM
ALOFT ADIABATICALLY...GIVING WINDY CONDITIONS OVR THE
CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. THE ADDITION OF A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS AS PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED WILL ALSO HELP TO EXACERBATE
THE SITUATION EVEN FURTHER TODAY. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE
PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS AROUND...WITHOUT THE
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL HOWEVER. RED FLAG WARNING THEREFORE CONTINUES
THROUGH FRI EVENING FOR SRN CNTRL AND SERN FIRE ZONES...WITH THE
ADDITION OF THE CODY FOOTHILLS (STARTING TODAY AT NOON) AND ALSO
RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

SAT AND SAT NIGHT...FLAT DRY ZONAL FLOW BEGINS THE TRANSITION TO DRY
NW FLOW. LEE SIDE LOW PRESSURE MOVES OFF INTO THE CNTRL
PLAINS...WITH ADDITIONAL COOLING FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF A COOL
FRONT E OF THE DIVIDE...BUT SLIGHT WARMING W OF THE DIVIDE WHERE THE
FRONT WILL NOT BE A PRESENCE. THE SFC P GRAD SHOULD ALSO RELAX
SOMEWHAT OVR THE PREVIOUS TWO DAYS AS THE LOW P SYSTEM MOVES
OFF...DECREASING W TO NW WINDS TO JUST BELOW WHAT WOULD BE NEEDED FOR
FURTHER RED FLAG WARNING CONDITIONS. HOWEVER...FIRE DANGER WILL
CERTAINLY BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SRN FCST ZONES. WILL
CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

UPPER LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES TODAY WILL CARVE OUT A
LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EARLY NEXT WEEK...FORMING A
BLOCK OVER NORTH AMERICA WITH UPPER RIDGE CENTERED JUST WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AND UPPER TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  THIS WILL PUT
WYOMING UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF NW FLOW ALOFT.  SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE
THAT WAS SUPPRESSED BY ZONAL FLOW WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN ON SUNDAY WITH BOTH GFS AND ECMWF SHOWING
THIS MOISTURE PLUME AND EMBEDDED SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES ROUNDING
THE TOP OF THE RIDGE AND PUSHING E-SE ACROSS WYOMING ON MONDAY.
THIS "RING OF FIRE" PATTERN WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MUCH
OF NEXT WEEK.  THE LAST WEEK OF JULY IS TYPICALLY WHEN WYOMING SEES
A BRIEF SURGE NWD OF THE SW MONSOON OR THE VERY HIGH 55+ DEWPOINTS
PUSHING UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN.  HOWEVER...NW FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP
THIS DEEPER LOW MOISTURE SUPPRESSED WELL TO OUR SOUTH.  HOWEVER...NW
FLOW WILL KEEP SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE HIGH PLAINS AND AN
EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THIS PERIOD ALONG
WITH AT LEAST SLIGHT INSTABILITY FOR CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS EACH
DAY...AND MORE THE WET THAN DRY VARIETY WITH EVEN A FEW STRONG TO
SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ACROSS CENTRAL WY.   NW
FLOW AND AFTERNOON CONVECTION WILL ALSO KEEP TEMPERATURES NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL EAST OF THE DIVIDE THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH
HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE 80S WITH SOME LOWER 90S IN THE BIG HORN
BASIN...WHILE TEMPERATURES WEST OF THE DIVIDE WILL BE NEAR OR
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL WHERE HIGHS WILL BE MOSTLY FROM 75F TO 85F IN
THE WESTERN VALLEYS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. BREEZY TO WINDY AT
MOST TERMINAL SITES TODAY INTO EARLY EVENING. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL OCCUR MAINLY IN THE SOUTH AND EAST PORTION OF THE
REGION. THIS INCLUDES KRKS AND KCPR TERMINAL SITES. A COLD FRONT
PUSHES INTO NORTHERN WY AROUND 01Z FRIDAY AND MOVES SOUTH TO
CENTRAL WY BETWEEN 06Z AND 08Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF NORTHERN...CENTRAL AND
SOUTHERN WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING...MAINLY FOR THE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING PERIODS. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS HAVE DEVELOPED
ACROSS THESE AREAS WHERE CRITICALLY DRY FUELS ALSO EXIST. ANOTHER
DAY OF HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH A
DRYING ATMOSPHERE AND VERY LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE
DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THERE WILL BE A CONTINUED POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED
THUNDER TODAY...FURTHER  REINFORCING HEIGHTEN FIRE
DANGER....ESPECIALLY ACROSS FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280 AND 300.
MUCH OF THE EXTREME FIRE WEATHER BEHAVIOR CONDITIONS WILL WILL BE
TIED TO A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT THAT WILL ALSO
COMBINE WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WIND GUST
BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SOMEWHAT COOLER OVER THE WARNED AREAS. SATURDAY WILL COOL OFF
FURTHER BEHIND A DRY COOL FRONT...BUT WILL STILL REMAIN WARM AND
DRY. HOWEVER...AS THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND ITS FRONT MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST...THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT SHOULD RELAX JUST ENOUGH TO
KEEP WINDS FROM REACHING RED FLAG CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH FIRE DANGER
WILL STILL BE ENHANCED...ESPECIALLY ACROSS ZONE 279.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN











000
FXUS65 KRIW 232011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MCS TO OUR EAST LAST NIGHT PUSHED A STRONG...MOIST BOUNDARY WESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER MORNING DEW
POINTS THAN EXPECTED. THE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 IN JOHNSON AND ERN NATRONA AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALL THE WAY WWD
INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN. MUCH DRIER SW FLOW IS FINALLY MIXING THE
AREA OUT WITH JOHNSON THE LAST TO GO. CAP IS STRONG SO POTENTIAL LOW
FOR STORMS BUT IF ONE DOES POP IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE
MOVING EAST OUR OUR AREA. SWRN MOISTURE PLUME CAME IN QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FURTHER NWWD THAN THE MODELS INDICATED SO EXPANDED ISOLD DRY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING INTO THE SW AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG OUT FLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW CELLS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SW WITH
RKS DROPPING TO 11 PERCENT BY 11 AM AND 8 PERCENT AT SNOW SPRINGS
CREEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SO ADDED IN IDEA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SERN ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AND JET STREAK MAY ALSO FIRE A FEW
LATE NIGHT STORMS IN THE NWRN MTNS. MORE HIGH BASED STORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT IN
JOHNSON COUNTY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER PW AIR TO CLIP THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURGE OF HIGHER THETA AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN AND CENTRAL AZ
SURGES NWD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO CLIP SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO ITS MORE WLY WIND FLOW IN OUR AREA. THE UPPER
JUST MAY ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE SUPPORT TOO DOWN THERE.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT AND WINDY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY
BUT STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT PUSHING IN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL PERMIT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAK WAVE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER WESTERN WYOMING TO INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST. THESE SHOWERS AND ADDED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI...
KPNA...KLND...KRIW...KCPR AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS MANY MILE AWAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO
REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST
EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO ADDED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START THURSDAY AT
NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC






000
FXUS65 KRIW 232011
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
211 PM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT AND THURSDAY

MCS TO OUR EAST LAST NIGHT PUSHED A STRONG...MOIST BOUNDARY WESTWARD
DURING THE EARLY MORNING HOURS RESULTING IN MUCH HIGHER MORNING DEW
POINTS THAN EXPECTED. THE DEW POINTS WERE IN THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR
60 IN JOHNSON AND ERN NATRONA AND LOWER TO MID 50S ALL THE WAY WWD
INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN. MUCH DRIER SW FLOW IS FINALLY MIXING THE
AREA OUT WITH JOHNSON THE LAST TO GO. CAP IS STRONG SO POTENTIAL LOW
FOR STORMS BUT IF ONE DOES POP IT COULD BE QUITE STRONG BEFORE
MOVING EAST OUR OUR AREA. SWRN MOISTURE PLUME CAME IN QUICKLY AND A
LITTLE FURTHER NWWD THAN THE MODELS INDICATED SO EXPANDED ISOLD DRY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WORDING INTO THE SW AND PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING
INTO THE EVENING HOURS. MAIN THREAT WILL BE THE STRONG OUT FLOW
WINDS AND LIGHTNING WITH A FEW CELLS. VERY DRY AIR IN THE SW WITH
RKS DROPPING TO 11 PERCENT BY 11 AM AND 8 PERCENT AT SNOW SPRINGS
CREEK. ANOTHER SURGE OF MID LEVEL SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE IS EXPECTED
OVERNIGHT SO ADDED IN IDEA OF ISOLATED SHOWERS/SLGHT CHC OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO THE SERN ZONES DURING THE LATE NIGHT AND MORNING
HOURS. WEAK RIPPLE IN THE SW FLOW AND JET STREAK MAY ALSO FIRE A FEW
LATE NIGHT STORMS IN THE NWRN MTNS. MORE HIGH BASED STORMS ON
THURSDAY ACROSS THE SERN ZONES AND POSSIBLY ALONG THE FRONT IN
JOHNSON COUNTY. ONE CAVEAT TO THE SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY IS THE
POTENTIAL FOR SOME HIGHER PW AIR TO CLIP THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON
AS SURGE OF HIGHER THETA AIR CURRENTLY OVER ERN AND CENTRAL AZ
SURGES NWD OVER THE NEXT 24-30 HOURS WITH PW`S OVER AN INCH FORECAST
BY THE GFS TO CLIP SERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THE NAM IS JUST SLIGHTLY
FURTHER SOUTH DUE TO ITS MORE WLY WIND FLOW IN OUR AREA. THE UPPER
JUST MAY ALSO PROVIDE A LITTLE SUPPORT TOO DOWN THERE.
OTHERWISE...CONTINUED HOT AND WINDY. BREEZY TO LOCALLY WINDY TODAY
BUT STRONGER ON THURSDAY WITH LOW TO THE NORTH AND FRONT PUSHING IN.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

A RELATIVELY QUIET FORECAST PERIOD AS FAR AS CONVECTIVE WEATHER. A
WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL CREATE A PERIOD OF ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
LATE THURSDAY NIGHT...AND CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS MAY RESULT
IN CONTINUED PERIODS OF GUSTY WIND ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH HOT AND DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. THIS COMBINATION AND THE
PRESENCE OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS WILL PERMIT THE CONTINUATION OF THE
RED FLAG WARNING ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN ZONES.

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BEGIN TO REBUILD OVER THE AREA
SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE SLIGHTLY COOLER ON SATURDAY AND SUNDAY AFTERNOONS IN RESPONSE TO
THE WEAK WAVE. THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL AMPLIFY OVER THE
FORECAST AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK. HOWEVER...ENOUGH MOISTURE WILL BE
BROUGHT OVER WESTERN WYOMING TO INTRODUCE ADDITIONAL CLOUD
COVER...AND ASSOCIATED SHOWER ACTIVITY. MOST SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL BE
CONFINED TO THE NORTHWEST...WITH A FEW SHOWERS POSSIBLE FURTHER
EAST. THESE SHOWERS AND ADDED MOISTURE WILL CAUSE FLUCTUATIONS IN
TEMPERATURE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS IN THE
SOUTHWESTERN AND CENTRAL PARTS OF THE AREA INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI...
KPNA...KLND...KRIW...KCPR AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR BETWEEN
FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE TERMINALS EVEN
THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS MANY MILE AWAY. A FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA DURING THE LATE NIGHT
HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE
90S COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS
TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS.
ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO
REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST
EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT
COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO GIVE WESTERLY WINDS
THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH
TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO ADDED A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START THURSDAY AT
NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...SKRBAC
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...SKRBAC
FIRE WEATHER...SKRBAC







000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 231722
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1122 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH OUTFLOW WINDS OF
40 TO 50 MPH WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHWESTERN
PARTS OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON INCLUDING KRKS...KBPI AND KPNA...
SPREADING TOWARDS KCPR. A FEW OF THESE SHOWERS AND ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS MAY ALSO SPREAD NWD INTO THE CENTRAL ZONES BY THIS
EVENING INCLUDING KLND...KRIW AND KWRL. THEY WILL BE FEW AND FAR
BETWEEN FURTHER NORTH BUT THE OUTFLOW WINDS CAN IMPACT THE
TERMINALS EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWER OR STORM IS A LONG WAY AWAY. A
FEW WEAK SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE AREA
DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS WITH ISOLATED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS
RETURNING THURSDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EAST INCLUDING
KRKS AND KCPR.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

UPDATE...SKRBAC
SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 230932
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
332 AM MDT WED JUL 23 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

WV IMAGERY SHOWING ROBUST UPR RIDGE...SANDWICHED BETWEEN TWO UPR
TROFS... CENTERED OVER CO AND EXTENDING ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT WITH
THE DIRTY PORTION OF THE RIDGE TO THE NORTH IN MT AND AROUND THE
HORN INTO SD AND NE...LEAVING THE FA DRY.

THRU THE FCST PERIOD...THE THE MEAN POSITION OF THE CENTER OF THE
UPR HIGH WILL NOT CHANGE MUCH....ONLY TRENDING SWD FROM CO INTO THE
NM/AZ REGION. HOWEVER...THE N/S EXTENT OF THE HIGH WILL GET SQUASHED
BY DAY 3 AS THE WRN COASTAL TROF PUSHES ACROSS SRN CA...DECREASING
HEIGHTS OVR WY ALONG WITH TEMPERATURES...GIVING A BRIEF RESPITE TO
AN OTHERWISE VERY HOT FCST THRU THURSDAY. LEADING EDGE OF WEAK SW
EMBEDDED IN THE PERIPHERY OF UPR HIGH OVR AZ TONIGHT WILL ROTATE
CLOCKWISE ACROSS THE FA BY THIS EVENING...GIVING SLIGHT CHANCES FOR
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WITH LITTLE RAIN...BUT A LITTLE DRY LIGHTNING
AND GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS POSSIBLE...OVR MAINLY THE SRN AND SERN
PORTION OF THE FORECAST AREA...IF A STORM CAN GO AT ALL WITH H7
TEMPS WARMING TO BETWEEN 17 AND 19 DEG C. OTHERWISE...A LITTLE
STRONGER SW WILL SWING THRU THE NWRN FA THU MORNING AROUND THE NW
CONUS TROF OFFERING SLIGHTLY BETTER INSTABILITY EVEN IN THE EARLY
MORNING HOURS WITH INCREASED LAPSED RATES UNDER A COOLING MID/UPR
LVL. BY AFTERNOON THU...THIS DISTURBANCE WILL COMBINE WITH SOME
MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS S AND ERN WY...OFFERING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR
CONVECTION...BUT MOSTLY ONLY THE FAR SRN AND ERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WILL HAVE ANY CHANCE FOR CONVECTION...NEAR DEVELOPING LEE SIDE SFC
LOW AND FRONT. FRIDAY WILL BE A BIT COOLER THAN THE PREVIOUS TWO
DAYS...AND DRIER AND MORE STABLE TOO...WITH VIRTUALLY NO CHANCE FOR
ACTIVE CONVECTION EXCEPT FOR POSSIBLY NEAR THE WY/CO BORDER. MORE
SIGNIFICANTLY...AND IN ADDITION TO THE ISOLATED THUNDER MENTIONED
ABOVE...WILL BE THE INCREASED FIRE DANGER THAT WILL DEVELOP ACROSS
THE SRN AND ERN ZONES. BEGINNING TODAY AND LASTING THRU FRI...HOT
DAYTIME TEMPS IN THE 90S WILL COMBINE WITH LOW RH VALUES RANGING
FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND INCREASING SW WINDS
ACROSS AREAS THAT HAVE RECENTLY SEEN DRY FUEL STATUS GO CRITICAL.
WHILE TODAY WILL BE A MARGINAL RED FLAG DAY AS FAR AS WINDS AND RH
GO...THE ADDITION OF POSSIBLE ISOLATED THUNDER RAISE ENOUGH CONCERNS
TO START THE WARNING TODAY. THEN BY THURSDAY...BOTH THE SURFACE
PRESSURE FIELDS ALONG WITH INCREASED UPR FLOW IN RESPONSE TO THE
PASSING OF THE UPR WAVE AND DEVELOPING LEE LOW WILL BOTH INCREASE
THE LOCAL P GRAD AND BRING WIND DOWN FROM ALOFT INTO A WINDY
CATEGORY OVR THE CENTRAL...SOUTHERN AND EASTERN FA. SIMILAR
CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT FRIDAY EVEN WITH COOLER HIGH TEMPS
AROUND. HAVE EXTENDED THE RFW ACCORDINGLY SO THAT THE WARNING WILL
NOW GO FROM NOON TODAY...THRU FRI EVENING. ADDITIONALLY...HAVE ADDED
A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL START
THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRI EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

UPPER LOW DIVES SE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS SATURDAY AND CARVES
OUT LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. BY MONDAY.  THIS WILL
ALLOW UPPER HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL ROCKIES TO PHASE WITH
RIDGE OVER CENTRAL CANADA...SETTING UP A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER NORTH
AMERICA WITH UPSTREAM TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC.  UPPER HIGH
OVER THE SW U.S. WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY MON-WED.  BOTH GFS AND
ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEANS HAVE THIS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER AZ BY 00Z
THURSDAY WITH THE ECEM SLIGHTLY FURTHER WEST.  THIS WESTWARD SHIFT
WILL BRING A MORE UNSETTLED NW FLOW ACROSS WYOMING TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY.

SATURDAY...VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE REGION WITH
STATIONARY SURFACE FRONT ALONG THE EAST SLOPES OF THE DIVIDE...A
LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT.  BREEZY N-NW WINDS WILL REMAIN
ACROSS SW WYOMING THOUGH NOT AS STRONG AS FRIDAY...HOWEVER FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED TO EXTREME.

SUNDAY...CANADIAN SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH HEAT SFC LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN.  THIS WILL BRING E-NE FLOW
AND LIGHTER WIND ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING ALONG WITH A BIT HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITY.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ACROSS
THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHWEST...WHILE TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE A FEW DEGREES
WARMER ACROSS THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY...THE "RING OF FIRE" BEGINS TO DEVELOP
AROUND FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH MONDAY WITH SUB-TROPICAL DISTURBANCES
ROTATING AROUND PERIPHERY OF HIGH NORTHWARD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN
AND WESTWARD ACROSS WYOMING.  THIS WILL BRING AN INITIAL SURGE OF
SUB-TROPICAL MOISTURE ALONG WITH ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS INTO THE WEST MONDAY AFTERNOON WITH SOME OF THIS
ACTIVITY SPREADING EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATE.  NW FLOW ALOFT WITH
LIGHT UPSLOPE E-NE SFC FLOW WILL SHIFT THE BEST MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...A
SET UP THAT WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR A FEW STRONG TO SEVERE
STORMS.


&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP TODAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS WILL
GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH THE MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY FROM THE
SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR FROM
KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A RED FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
WYOMING FROM NOON TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER
WATCH IS IN EFFECT  FOR THE CODY FOOTHILLS FROM NOON ON THURSDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING. CRITICAL FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS AREAS WITH CRITICALLY DRY FUELS BEGINNING THIS
AFTERNOON...AS HOT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN THE 90S COMBINE WITH LOW
RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPR SINGLE DIGITS TO THE MID TEENS AND
INCREASING SOUTHWEST TO WEST WINDS. ADDITIONALLY...THE POSSIBILITY
OF ISOLATED THUNDER TODAY ALSO REINFORCES THIS DECISION. THURSDAY
WILL PERHAPS SEE THE MOST EXTREME BEHAVIOR AS A STRONGLY INCREASED
SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINES WITH STRONGER UPPER LEVEL FLOW TO
GIVE WESTERLY WINDS THAT WILL GUST BETWEEN 25 AND 35 MPH IN THE
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. SIMILAR CONDITIONS WILL BE PRESENT
FRIDAY...ALTHOUGH HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE A BIT COOLER. HAVE ALSO
ADDED A FIRE WEATHER WATCH FOR ZONE 276 (CODY FOOTHILLS) THAT WILL
START THURSDAY AT NOON AND ALSO RUN THRU FRIDAY EVENING FOR SIMILAR
REASONING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 9 PM MDT FRIDAY
WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM THURSDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY
EVENING WYZ276.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 230513
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1113 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

INSTABILITY LINGERS IN NORTHERN WYOMING WITH MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS
FLIRTING WITH OUR NORTHERN WYOMING BORDER THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY FAR
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY AS STORMS MOVE UP AND OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING AS WINDS INCREASE...RH DROPS TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AND TEMPS HEAT UP WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. EXPECT HIGHS AS HOT AS THE
UPPER 90S WED AFTERNOON IN THE BIG HORN. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO LIGHT TO WAR RENT ANY FIRE WEATHER HILITES NORTH OF THE OWL
CREEK MTNS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPANDING UPPER 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPIC PLUME
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN AZ TO LIFT NWD TOWARDS US OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY TRAJECTORY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT OUR SERN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THIS PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. PROBABLY ALSO ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WITH A
FEW TRYING TO GET OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER GREEN AND NE TO
THE GRASS CREEK AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOIST SE FLOW WILL BE ON
OUR ERN FRINGES UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE SW WINDS KICK
IN PUSHING THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER MOISTURE STORMS TO THE EAST.
COULD SEE A BRIEF STORM FIRE IN JOHNSON...ESPECIALLY ERN BEFORE THE
SW WINDS DRY THEM OUT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY...PACNW LOW MOVES INLAND
WITH INCREASING HOT...WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN HIGHER FIRE
WX CONCERNS AS MORE WIND AND A FRONT WILL COME INTO PLAY. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY STILL IN THE FAR SERN
ZONES IF THE WLY MID LEVEL DOESN`T SWEEP ALL THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT. DRY AND QUITE WARM TO HOT ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WASHES OUT IN ALL
BUT THE NRN OR NERN ZONES. OUR UPPER LOW TO THE NE WILL DROP INTO
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO OUR N AND NE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY NW FLOW WITH COOLER READINGS. STILL WARM BUT
NOT THE INTENSE HEAT THAT WILL SEE FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK. RIDGE
AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO WRN WYOMING ON MONDAY WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME EDGING INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE
EDGING INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH BASED GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THROUGH 09Z...SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM CONVECTION IN MONTANA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OR SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS JOHNSON/NATRONA AND
THE BIG HORN BASIN. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY AROUND 09Z.
OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE RULE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST...AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE RETURN OF A GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 230513
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1113 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

INSTABILITY LINGERS IN NORTHERN WYOMING WITH MONTANA THUNDERSTORMS
FLIRTING WITH OUR NORTHERN WYOMING BORDER THIS EVE...ESPECIALLY FAR
NORTHEAST JOHNSON COUNTY AS STORMS MOVE UP AND OVER THE BUILDING
RIDGE OVER THE AREA. INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE RIDGE WILL INCREASE THE FIRE DANGER ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN WYOMING AS WINDS INCREASE...RH DROPS TO CRITICAL
LEVELS AND TEMPS HEAT UP WHERE A FIRE WEATHER WATCH HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR WED AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVE. EXPECT HIGHS AS HOT AS THE
UPPER 90S WED AFTERNOON IN THE BIG HORN. WINDS WILL PROBABLY BE
TOO LIGHT TO WAR RENT ANY FIRE WEATHER HILITES NORTH OF THE OWL
CREEK MTNS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

EXPANDING UPPER 4-CORNERS HIGH WILL ALLOW FOR THE SUBTROPIC PLUME
THAT IS CURRENTLY OVER SERN AZ TO LIFT NWD TOWARDS US OVER THE NEXT
24 HOURS. CURRENTLY TRAJECTORY LOOKS LIKE IT WILL IMPACT OUR SERN
ZONES LATE IN THE DAY TOMORROW INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ISOLATED HIGH
BASED GUSTY THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE ANYWHERE ALONG THIS PLUME OF
MID LEVEL MOISTURE. PROBABLY ALSO ENOUGH DIURNAL HEATING AND LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE TO FIRE A FEW STORMS OVER THE WRN MOUNTAINS WITH A
FEW TRYING TO GET OFF THE MOUNTAINS INTO THE UPPER GREEN AND NE TO
THE GRASS CREEK AREA BY WEDNESDAY EVENING. MOIST SE FLOW WILL BE ON
OUR ERN FRINGES UNTIL EARLY TO MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE SW WINDS KICK
IN PUSHING THE BEST CHANCE FOR DEEPER MOISTURE STORMS TO THE EAST.
COULD SEE A BRIEF STORM FIRE IN JOHNSON...ESPECIALLY ERN BEFORE THE
SW WINDS DRY THEM OUT. OTHERWISE...HOT AND BREEZY TO WINDY WITH
INCREASING FIRE WX CONCERNS. ON THURSDAY...PACNW LOW MOVES INLAND
WITH INCREASING HOT...WLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA WITH EVEN HIGHER FIRE
WX CONCERNS AS MORE WIND AND A FRONT WILL COME INTO PLAY. COULD SEE
AN ISOLATED STORM ALONG THE FRONT AND POSSIBLY STILL IN THE FAR SERN
ZONES IF THE WLY MID LEVEL DOESN`T SWEEP ALL THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE
OUT. DRY AND QUITE WARM TO HOT ON FRIDAY AS FRONT WASHES OUT IN ALL
BUT THE NRN OR NERN ZONES. OUR UPPER LOW TO THE NE WILL DROP INTO
THE ERN U.S. TROUGH WITH RISING SURFACE PRESSURES TO OUR N AND NE
OVER THE WEEKEND. DRY NW FLOW WITH COOLER READINGS. STILL WARM BUT
NOT THE INTENSE HEAT THAT WILL SEE FOR A FEW DAYS THIS WEEK. RIDGE
AXIS IS THEN EXPECTED TO SHIFT E INTO WRN WYOMING ON MONDAY WITH
MONSOONAL PLUME EDGING INTO THE WEST LATE IN THE DAY AND POSSIBLE
EDGING INTO AT LEAST PARTS OF CENTRAL WYOMING BY THE EVENING HOURS.
POTENTIAL FOR SOME MID LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE ENTIRE
AREA ON TUESDAY WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED MAINLY HIGH BASED GUSTY
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS JUST ABOUT ANYTIME FROM LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

THROUGH 09Z...SOME BREEZY NORTHERLY WINDS FROM CONVECTION IN MONTANA
WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT OR SLIDE SOUTH ACROSS JOHNSON/NATRONA AND
THE BIG HORN BASIN. HOWEVER THESE WINDS WILL SUBSIDE BY AROUND 09Z.
OTHERWISE...SKC CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL BE RULE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF TONIGHT.

CONVECTION WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO DEVELOP WEDNESDAY...WITH A MAINLY
STABLE ATMOSPHERE DUE TO WARM MID LEVEL TEMPS...AND MEAGER MOISTURE.
HAVING SAID THAT...THERE COULD BE SOME VERY ISOLATED CONVECTION OVER
THE MOUNTAINS THAT TRY TO FORM LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. CHANCES ARE TOO REMOTE TO MENTION AT ANY TAF SITE. WINDS
WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING...BECOMING BREEZY
FROM THE SOUTHWEST/WEST OVER THE WEST...AND FROM THE WIND CORRIDOR
FROM KRKS-KCPR. WINDS MORE SOUTHERLY IN JACKSON HOLE.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

ISOLATED CONVECTION WILL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHERN BORDER OF
WYOMING THROUGH THIS EVENING. A FIRE WEATHER WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING FOR WEDNESDAY AND
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. A COMBINATION OF HOT
TEMPERATURES ...LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND THE RETURN OF A GUSTY
WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND WILL LIKELY BRING ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FOR
WEDNESDAY AND INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
EVENING WYZ279-280-283-285-287-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities