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000
FXUS65 KRIW 202042 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WILL DECREASE BY
SUNSET. ONE MORE BONUS FALL DAY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AFFECTS OUR WEATHER BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWEST WY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL WY BY 18Z SUNDAY.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY THAN WHAT THEY
WERE TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST WY ALONG WITH LOWERING LIFTED INDICES...
RISING CAPES AND MORE FAVORABLE TOTAL TOTALS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST WY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS IT GETS KICKED
OUT AHEAD OF ERN PAC TROUGH. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN LIFTING IT
NEWD INTO CENTRL WYO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF TO THE NE MONDAY
NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT SUNDAY NIGHT
STARTING IN THE SW AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME DECENT STORMS INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SW WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALL
NIGHT SPREADING NWD OVERNIGHT. GOOD COVERAGE AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MONDAY AND IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME DRIFT SEWD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY WARRANT KEEPING THE ISOLD IN THE WEST
AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVERHEAD WED/THU AHEAD OF OUR
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE OP AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUITE A FEW ARE SLOWER
BY A DAY OR TWO AND SOME DON`T HAVE A TROUGH AT ALL OR AT LEAST MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. WILL GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER OP ECMWF AS THE
GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT STORM UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALREADY WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...IE SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...IT MAKES TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTRA
DAY OR TWO. NUDGED TEMPS UP SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE. WILL LOOK AT THE TRENDS AND
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 21Z
SUNDAY...INCLUDING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WYOMING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON










000
FXUS65 KRIW 202042 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WILL DECREASE BY
SUNSET. ONE MORE BONUS FALL DAY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AFFECTS OUR WEATHER BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWEST WY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL WY BY 18Z SUNDAY.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY THAN WHAT THEY
WERE TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST WY ALONG WITH LOWERING LIFTED INDICES...
RISING CAPES AND MORE FAVORABLE TOTAL TOTALS. THIS WILL RESULT IN
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY
LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA OF WEAK QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWEST WY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS IT GETS KICKED
OUT AHEAD OF ERN PAC TROUGH. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN LIFTING IT
NEWD INTO CENTRL WYO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF TO THE NE MONDAY
NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT SUNDAY NIGHT
STARTING IN THE SW AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME DECENT STORMS INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SW WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALL
NIGHT SPREADING NWD OVERNIGHT. GOOD COVERAGE AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MONDAY AND IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME DRIFT SEWD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY WARRANT KEEPING THE ISOLD IN THE WEST
AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVERHEAD WED/THU AHEAD OF OUR
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE OP AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUITE A FEW ARE SLOWER
BY A DAY OR TWO AND SOME DON`T HAVE A TROUGH AT ALL OR AT LEAST MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. WILL GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER OP ECMWF AS THE
GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT STORM UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALREADY WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...IE SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...IT MAKES TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTRA
DAY OR TWO. NUDGED TEMPS UP SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE. WILL LOOK AT THE TRENDS AND
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 21Z
SUNDAY...INCLUDING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WYOMING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 202027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WILL DECREASE BY
SUNSET. ONE MORE BONUS FALL DAY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AFFECTS OUR WEATHER BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWEST WY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL WY BY 18Z SUNDAY.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY THAN WHAT THEY
WERE TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST WY ALONG WITH LOWERING LIFTED INDICES AND
RISING CAPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF WEAK QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS IT GETS KICKED
OUT AHEAD OF ERN PAC TROUGH. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN LIFTING IT
NEWD INTO CENTRL WYO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF TO THE NE MONDAY
NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT SUNDAY NIGHT
STARTING IN THE SW AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME DECENT STORMS INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SW WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALL
NIGHT SPREADING NWD OVERNIGHT. GOOD COVERAGE AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MONDAY AND IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME DRIFT SEWD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY WARRANT KEEPING THE ISOLD IN THE WEST
AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVERHEAD WED/THU AHEAD OF OUR
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE OP AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUITE A FEW ARE SLOWER
BY A DAY OR TWO AND SOME DON`T HAVE A TROUGH AT ALL OR AT LEAST MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. WILL GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER OP ECMWF AS THE
GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT STORM UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALREADY WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...IE SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...IT MAKES TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTRA
DAY OR TWO. NUDGED TEMPS UP SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE. WILL LOOK AT THE TRENDS AND
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 21Z
SUNDAY...INCLUDING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WYOMING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON






000
FXUS65 KRIW 202027
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
227 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY
POST FRONTAL NORTH WINDS IN JOHNSON COUNTY WILL DECREASE BY
SUNSET. ONE MORE BONUS FALL DAY SUNDAY IS EXPECTED BEFORE THE NEXT
CLOSED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NOW SPINNING OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
CALIFORNIA AFFECTS OUR WEATHER BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY
IN SOUTHWEST WY. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD IN
FROM THE WEST WITH THE RIDGE AXIS OVER CENTRAL WY BY 18Z SUNDAY.
HIGHS TEMPS WILL BE ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES WARMER SUNDAY THAN WHAT THEY
WERE TODAY. THE CLOSED LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST TO NEVADA BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON. AS THE LOW APPROACHES...BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL
FILTER INTO SOUTHWEST WY ALONG WITH LOWERING LIFTED INDICES AND
RISING CAPES. THIS WILL RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS IN
SOUTHWEST AND WEST CENTRAL WYOMING BY LATE SUNDAY AFTERNOON. AN AREA
OF WEAK QG FORCING WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWEST WY FROM THE SOUTHWEST AS
WELL.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
UPPER LOW MOVING INTO SOCAL IS EXPECTED TO LIFT NE AS IT GETS KICKED
OUT AHEAD OF ERN PAC TROUGH. MODELS ARE ALL SIMILAR IN LIFTING IT
NEWD INTO CENTRL WYO MONDAY AFTERNOON AND THEN OFF TO THE NE MONDAY
NIGHT. GOOD MOISTURE SURGE EXPECTED AHEAD OF IT SUNDAY NIGHT
STARTING IN THE SW AND LIFTING INTO THE CENTRAL OVERNIGHT INTO
MONDAY MORNING. ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR SOME DECENT STORMS INTO THE
EVENING SUNDAY ACROSS THE SW WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED THUNDER ALL
NIGHT SPREADING NWD OVERNIGHT. GOOD COVERAGE AROUND THE CIRCULATION
MONDAY AND IN MOST OF THE MOUNTAINS WITH SOME DRIFT SEWD OFF THE
MOUNTAINS IN DEVELOPING NW FLOW ALOFT. RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND
POTENTIAL WEAK SHORTWAVE MAY WARRANT KEEPING THE ISOLD IN THE WEST
AND NRN MOUNTAINS TUESDAY.

SHARP RIDGE WILL DEVELOP AND MOVE OVERHEAD WED/THU AHEAD OF OUR
POTENTIAL SIGNIFICANT UPPER LOW FOR NEXT WEEKEND. LARGE
DISCREPANCIES IN THE OP AND ENSEMBLE MEMBERS. QUITE A FEW ARE SLOWER
BY A DAY OR TWO AND SOME DON`T HAVE A TROUGH AT ALL OR AT LEAST MUCH
FURTHER NORTH. WILL GIVE SOME WEIGHT TO THE SLOWER OP ECMWF AS THE
GFS HAS A SIGNIFICANT STORM UNDERWAY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY
ALREADY WHEREAS THE ECMWF HOLDS OFF UNTIL BEYOND THE MEDIUM RANGE
PERIOD...IE SUNDAY. WITH THAT SAID...IT MAKES TEMPERATURES TRICKY AS
SLOWER SOLUTION WOULD RESULT IN MUCH WARMER CONDITIONS FOR AN EXTRA
DAY OR TWO. NUDGED TEMPS UP SOME FRIDAY AND SATURDAY BUT NOWHERE
NEAR AS MUCH AS THE ECMWF WOULD PRODUCE. WILL LOOK AT THE TRENDS AND
HEMISPHERIC PATTERN AGAIN TOMORROW.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG FOR THE REST OF
THIS AFTERNOON. LCL MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED MAINLY IN
SOUTHWEST WYOMING DUE TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY AFTER 21Z
SUNDAY...INCLUDING KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING AS THE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE AXIS MOVES INTO WYOMING. SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE
ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN APPROACHING AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST
MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY
WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON







000
FXUS65 KRIW 201901
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A QUIET BEGINNING TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA OVERALL...WITH RESULTING
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
AFTERNOON WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NATRONA COUNTY EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHTER WIND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND BY THIS EVENING...EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE INFLUENCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MONDAYS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING...AND BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

A LARGE CLOSE LOW TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING THE
AGREEMENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS IS STILL THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY...AND LESS
ACTIVE...TRACK. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SMALL POPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND
SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...C.BAKER/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 201901
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1 PM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A QUIET BEGINNING TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA OVERALL...WITH RESULTING
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
AFTERNOON WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NATRONA COUNTY EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHTER WIND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND BY THIS EVENING...EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE INFLUENCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MONDAYS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING...AND BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

A LARGE CLOSE LOW TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING THE
AGREEMENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS IS STILL THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY...AND LESS
ACTIVE...TRACK. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SMALL POPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KBYG THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND
SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...C.BAKER/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 200953
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
353 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A QUIET BEGINNING TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA OVERALL...WITH RESULTING
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
AFTERNOON WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NATRONA COUNTY EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHTER WIND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND BY THIS EVENING...EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE INFLUENCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MONDAYS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING...AND BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

A LARGE CLOSE LOW TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING THE
AGREEMENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS IS STILL THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY...AND LESS
ACTIVE...TRACK. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SMALL POPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KCPR AND KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND
SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 200953
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
353 AM MDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT

A QUIET BEGINNING TO THE FORECAST PERIOD WITH A RIDGE OF HIGH
PRESSURE LEAVING DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. COOLER H7
TEMPERATURES CONTINUE TO INVADE THE AREA OVERALL...WITH RESULTING
COOLER DAYTIME TEMPERATURES EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SOME
AFTERNOON WIND MAY DEVELOP OVER NATRONA COUNTY EACH DAY...BUT MOST
OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE LIGHTER WIND THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE CALIFORNIA COAST WILL MOVE
INLAND BY THIS EVENING...EDGING ITS WAY INTO THE INFLUENCING AREA OF
HIGH PRESSURE. THIS AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL LIFT INTO THE
INTERMOUNTAIN WEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND INTO MONDAY. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...AND WILL SPREAD EAST OF THE DIVIDE BY SUNDAY EVENING.

COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE
AREA OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES THROUGH THE STATE. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE SYSTEM MONDAY AFTERNOON...SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE WILL
WEAKEN THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...THOUGH SCATTERED ACTIVITY WILL
PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE STATE.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY

A FEW LINGERING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY...MAINLY ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA...AS MONDAYS TROUGH EXITS THE REGION.
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL THEN PUSH INTO THE REGION TUESDAY
EVENING...AND BRING DRY AND WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH THURSDAY.
TEMPERATURES COULD WARM BACK INTO THE LOW TO MID 80S FOR
WEDNESDAY...WITH MID TO POSSIBLY UPPER 80S BY THURSDAY FOR
PORTIONS EAST OF THE DIVIDE.

A LARGE CLOSE LOW TROUGH STILL APPEARS TO BE THE MAJOR WEATHER
MAKER FOR LATE IN THE PERIOD. MODELS ARE NO LONGER SHOWING THE
AGREEMENT AS PREVIOUS RUNS. GFS IS STILL THE MORE PROGRESSIVE
MODEL...WITH THE ECMWF NOW TAKING A MORE NORTHERLY...AND LESS
ACTIVE...TRACK. A GFS SOLUTION WOULD BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE WEST THURSDAY AFTERNOON...THEN INCREASING POPS FROM
WEST TO EAST...FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS
SYSTEM WILL STILL NEED TO BE MONITORED...BUT FOR NOW MAINTAINED
SMALL POPS FOR LATER IN THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS
WITH GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KCPR AND KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE AREA...THOUGH THE PASSAGE OF A
WEAK WAVE WILL CONTINUE TO COOL DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO BE CLOSER TO
SEASONAL VALUES. DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON WILL SEE THE ARRIVAL OF MOISTURE INFLUENCED BY AN
APPROACHING AREA OF LOW PRESSURE FROM CALIFORNIA. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE INTO SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING SUNDAY EVENING AND
SPREAD TO COVER THE VAST MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA BY MONDAY
MORNING. SHOWER ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN MONDAY EVENING ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN WYOMING...THOUGH SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE
NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






000
FXUS65 KRIW 200550
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1149 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA ATTM WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.
THE VALLEY FOG IN FAR WESTERN WY THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THURSDAY
EVENINGS RAINFALL FINALLY DISSIPATED BY 12 NOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CAN LOOK
FORWARD TO COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER
SATURDAY OVER WHAT THEY WERE THURSDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WHILE THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MODELS
EARLIER...SINCE THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN...THAT IS NOT TRUE ANYMORE
IN/BY DAY 7...PRETTY GOOD OTHERWISE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CONUS UNDER A RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN FROM WEST OT EAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT COL JUST STARTING TO
GET KICKED INTO THE SW CONUS BY WAY OF SRN CALIFORNIA AS THE
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SW ALLOWS UPR LVL WESTERLIES TO ONCE AGAIN FLOW
OVR AND AROUND THE COL. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE PVA
FIELDS...GOING FROM A SPOKED PATTERN TO BIMODAL WITH PVA LEADING
NVA. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE
WRN FA AND OFF TO THE CONUS NW...WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...DEEPENING TO THE E. DRY SAT AND HALF OF SUN BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS EX-COL CONTINUES
TOWARD WY AND WRN RIDGE EXPANDS EWD ALONG WITH THE SFC
HIGH...ALLOWING DESERT SOUTHWEST HEAT LOW TO SQUEEZE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS EVEN INCLUDING SOME FROM TC POLO...UP FROM
MEXICO AND THRU THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
LOOKS TO INFILTRATE THE SWRN QUAD OF THE FA BY SUN
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LOOK REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA WHERE BOTH SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
ENERGY...SUNLIGHT LIMITED...MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL APPROACHING
AN INCH...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW A SECONDARY CONSIDERATION.
MONDAY...THE TROF UNDER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA...BUT THE MAIN BLOB NOW
GETTING SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. TWO MOISTURE MAXIMUMS WILL BE AROUND THE CWA
AND THE UPR LOW...ONE RETURNING INTO THE NERN FA AND THE JOHNSON
COUNTY AREA...THE OTHER ACROSS THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE MID/UPR LVL. THE WRN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM THRU TUES MORNING...SHIFTING EWD
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND THEN OUT OF THE FA TUE
NIGHT.

AS TROF EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRI...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HERALDS THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT PAC TROF. GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN MDLS NOW ENDS WITH NOW VASTLY
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY STAYED THE COURSE IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE CLOSED LOW TROF WITH COLDER AIR DIGGING FURTHER
SWD...THE EURO HAS NOW DECIDED NOT TO DIG AND INSTEAD RATHER
BENIGNLY BRING AN EVER BROADENING TROF ACROSS THE CONUS NW...KEEPING
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE N OF THE FA. BOTH
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING...SEEM PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE EPAC HIGH...WITH THE EURO ALLOWING IT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER EWD AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS...IN EFFECT
MEETING UP WITH THE ERN CONUS HIGH. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DIVISION
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVERRUNNING THE CONUS AND
THE TROF/LOW BECOMING NEARLY CUT-OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR OR IF
THE EURO RETURNS TO WHAT IT AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTTOM LONE...SMALL POPS IN DAY 7 FOR MAINLY
THE WEST...FAR BELOW WHAT THE GFS WANTS...BUT MUCH MORE THAN THE
EURO.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KCPR AND KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE
AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...CMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON












000
FXUS65 KRIW 200550
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1149 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY

THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA ATTM WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.
THE VALLEY FOG IN FAR WESTERN WY THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THURSDAY
EVENINGS RAINFALL FINALLY DISSIPATED BY 12 NOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CAN LOOK
FORWARD TO COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER THROUGH
SATURDAY.  HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER
SATURDAY OVER WHAT THEY WERE THURSDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT NOT
MUCH CHANGE IN TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS
WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WHILE THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MODELS
EARLIER...SINCE THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN...THAT IS NOT TRUE ANYMORE
IN/BY DAY 7...PRETTY GOOD OTHERWISE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CONUS UNDER A RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN FROM WEST OT EAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT COL JUST STARTING TO
GET KICKED INTO THE SW CONUS BY WAY OF SRN CALIFORNIA AS THE
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SW ALLOWS UPR LVL WESTERLIES TO ONCE AGAIN FLOW
OVR AND AROUND THE COL. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE PVA
FIELDS...GOING FROM A SPOKED PATTERN TO BIMODAL WITH PVA LEADING
NVA. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE
WRN FA AND OFF TO THE CONUS NW...WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...DEEPENING TO THE E. DRY SAT AND HALF OF SUN BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS EX-COL CONTINUES
TOWARD WY AND WRN RIDGE EXPANDS EWD ALONG WITH THE SFC
HIGH...ALLOWING DESERT SOUTHWEST HEAT LOW TO SQUEEZE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS EVEN INCLUDING SOME FROM TC POLO...UP FROM
MEXICO AND THRU THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
LOOKS TO INFILTRATE THE SWRN QUAD OF THE FA BY SUN
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LOOK REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA WHERE BOTH SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
ENERGY...SUNLIGHT LIMITED...MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL APPROACHING
AN INCH...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW A SECONDARY CONSIDERATION.
MONDAY...THE TROF UNDER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA...BUT THE MAIN BLOB NOW
GETTING SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. TWO MOISTURE MAXIMUMS WILL BE AROUND THE CWA
AND THE UPR LOW...ONE RETURNING INTO THE NERN FA AND THE JOHNSON
COUNTY AREA...THE OTHER ACROSS THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE MID/UPR LVL. THE WRN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM THRU TUES MORNING...SHIFTING EWD
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND THEN OUT OF THE FA TUE
NIGHT.

AS TROF EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRI...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HERALDS THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT PAC TROF. GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN MDLS NOW ENDS WITH NOW VASTLY
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY STAYED THE COURSE IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE CLOSED LOW TROF WITH COLDER AIR DIGGING FURTHER
SWD...THE EURO HAS NOW DECIDED NOT TO DIG AND INSTEAD RATHER
BENIGNLY BRING AN EVER BROADENING TROF ACROSS THE CONUS NW...KEEPING
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE N OF THE FA. BOTH
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING...SEEM PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE EPAC HIGH...WITH THE EURO ALLOWING IT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER EWD AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS...IN EFFECT
MEETING UP WITH THE ERN CONUS HIGH. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DIVISION
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVERRUNNING THE CONUS AND
THE TROF/LOW BECOMING NEARLY CUT-OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR OR IF
THE EURO RETURNS TO WHAT IT AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTTOM LONE...SMALL POPS IN DAY 7 FOR MAINLY
THE WEST...FAR BELOW WHAT THE GFS WANTS...BUT MUCH MORE THAN THE
EURO.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING
THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY.  NORTHEAST SURFACE WINDS OF 10 TO 15 KTS WITH
GUSTS TO 25 KTS WILL BE ENCOUNTERED VICINITY KCPR AND KRKS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE
AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...CMB
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON











000
FXUS65 KRIW 192043
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
243 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA ATTM WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.
THE VALLEY FOG IN FAR WESTERN WY THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THURSDAY
EVENINGS RAINFALL FINALLY DISSIPATED BY 12 NOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CAN LOOK FORWARD
TO COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY OVER WHAT
THEY WERE THURSDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WHILE THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MODELS
EARLIER...SINCE THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN...THAT IS NOT TRUE ANYMORE
IN/BY DAY 7...PRETTY GOOD OTHERWISE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CONUS UNDER A RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN FROM WEST OT EAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT COL JUST STARTING TO
GET KICKED INTO THE SW CONUS BY WAY OF SRN CALIFORNIA AS THE
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SW ALLOWS UPR LVL WESTERLIES TO ONCE AGAIN FLOW
OVR AND AROUND THE COL. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE PVA
FIELDS...GOING FROM A SPOKED PATTERN TO BIMODAL WITH PVA LEADING
NVA. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE
WRN FA AND OFF TO THE CONUS NW...WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...DEEPENING TO THE E. DRY SAT AND HALF OF SUN BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS EX-COL CONTINUES
TOWARD WY AND WRN RIDGE EXPANDS EWD ALONG WITH THE SFC
HIGH...ALLOWING DESERT SOUTHWEST HEAT LOW TO SQUEEZE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS EVEN INCLUDING SOME FROM TC POLO...UP FROM
MEXICO AND THRU THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
LOOKS TO INFILTRATE THE SWRN QUAD OF THE FA BY SUN
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LOOK REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA WHERE BOTH SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
ENERGY...SUNLIGHT LIMITED...MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL APPROACHING
AN INCH...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW A SECONDARY CONSIDERATION.
MONDAY...THE TROF UNDER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA...BUT THE MAIN BLOB NOW
GETTING SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. TWO MOISTURE MAXIMUMS WILL BE AROUND THE CWA
AND THE UPR LOW...ONE RETURNING INTO THE NERN FA AND THE JOHNSON
COUNTY AREA...THE OTHER ACROSS THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE MID/UPR LVL. THE WRN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM THRU TUES MORNING...SHIFTING EWD
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND THEN OUT OF THE FA TUE
NIGHT.

AS TROF EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRI...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HERALDS THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT PAC TROF. GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN MDLS NOW ENDS WITH NOW VASTLY
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY STAYED THE COURSE IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE CLOSED LOW TROF WITH COLDER AIR DIGGING FURTHER
SWD...THE EURO HAS NOW DECIDED NOT TO DIG AND INSTEAD RATHER
BENIGNLY BRING AN EVER BROADENING TROF ACROSS THE CONUS NW...KEEPING
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE N OF THE FA. BOTH
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING...SEEM PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE EPAC HIGH...WITH THE EURO ALLOWING IT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER EWD AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS...IN EFFECT
MEETING UP WITH THE ERN CONUS HIGH. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DIVISION
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVERRUNNING THE CONUS AND
THE TROF/LOW BECOMING NEARLY CUT-OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR OR IF
THE EURO RETURNS TO WHAT IT AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTTOM LONE...SMALL POPS IN DAY 7 FOR MAINLY
THE WEST...FAR BELOW WHAT THE GFS WANTS...BUT MUCH MORE THAN THE
EURO.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER THROUGH 02Z BUT
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE
AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON








000
FXUS65 KRIW 192043
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
243 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
THE TROUGH/COLD FRONT IS EXITING THE AREA ATTM WITH LINGERING
SHOWERS MOVING OFF TO THE EAST OF NATRONA AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES.
THE VALLEY FOG IN FAR WESTERN WY THAT DEVELOPED AFTER THURSDAY
EVENINGS RAINFALL FINALLY DISSIPATED BY 12 NOON TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
BE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST THROUGH SATURDAY. WE CAN LOOK FORWARD
TO COOLER WEATHER AND PRECIPITATION FREE WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 15 DEGREES COOLER SATURDAY OVER WHAT
THEY WERE THURSDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE BUT NOT MUCH CHANGE IN
TEMPERATURE IS EXPECTED WEST OF THE DIVIDE. WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY
LIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

WHILE THERE WAS REMARKABLE AGREEMENT AMONG THE LR MODELS
EARLIER...SINCE THE NEW EURO HAS COME IN...THAT IS NOT TRUE ANYMORE
IN/BY DAY 7...PRETTY GOOD OTHERWISE.

AT THE BEGINNING OF THE FCST PERIOD...CONUS UNDER A RIDGE/TROF
PATTERN FROM WEST OT EAST WITH A SIGNIFICANT COL JUST STARTING TO
GET KICKED INTO THE SW CONUS BY WAY OF SRN CALIFORNIA AS THE
APPROACH OF UPSTREAM SW ALLOWS UPR LVL WESTERLIES TO ONCE AGAIN FLOW
OVR AND AROUND THE COL. THIS ALSO SHOWS UP WELL IN THE PVA
FIELDS...GOING FROM A SPOKED PATTERN TO BIMODAL WITH PVA LEADING
NVA. AT THE SAME TIME...WRN RIDGE AXIS WILL BE ORIENTED ACROSS THE
WRN FA AND OFF TO THE CONUS NW...WITH BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE AT
THE SFC...DEEPENING TO THE E. DRY SAT AND HALF OF SUN BEFORE
MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE REGION FROM THE SW AS EX-COL CONTINUES
TOWARD WY AND WRN RIDGE EXPANDS EWD ALONG WITH THE SFC
HIGH...ALLOWING DESERT SOUTHWEST HEAT LOW TO SQUEEZE SOME TROPICAL
MOISTURE...AND PERHAPS EVEN INCLUDING SOME FROM TC POLO...UP FROM
MEXICO AND THRU THE SRN AND CNTRL ROCKIES. THE MAIN MOISTURE FEED
LOOKS TO INFILTRATE THE SWRN QUAD OF THE FA BY SUN
AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS. INSTABILITY
AND SHEAR LOOK REMAIN IN CHECK FOR MOST AREAS W OF THE DIVIDE.
HOWEVER...A COUPLE OF STRONGER STORMS SHOULD BE EXPECTED OVER THE
FAR SW PORTION OF THE FA WHERE BOTH SHEAR AND AVAILABLE
ENERGY...SUNLIGHT LIMITED...MAY PRODUCE SOME SMALL HAIL APPROACHING
AN INCH...WITH STRONG OUTFLOW A SECONDARY CONSIDERATION.
MONDAY...THE TROF UNDER RIDGE CONTINUES ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME
MOISTURE ALSO CONTINUING ACROSS THE FA...BUT THE MAIN BLOB NOW
GETTING SHUNTED TO THE SOUTH AND/OR EAST AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND
INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. TWO MOISTURE MAXIMUMS WILL BE AROUND THE CWA
AND THE UPR LOW...ONE RETURNING INTO THE NERN FA AND THE JOHNSON
COUNTY AREA...THE OTHER ACROSS THE WEST ON THE BACKSIDE OF THE
LOW...MUCH OF THIS MOISTURE MID/UPR LVL. THE WRN MOUNTAINS LOOK TO
BENEFIT THE MOST FROM THIS SYSTEM THRU TUES MORNING...SHIFTING EWD
THRU THE REST OF THE DAY AND THEN OUT OF THE FA TUE
NIGHT.

AS TROF EXITS THE AREA OVERNIGHT TUE...RIDGING RETURNS TO THE
FORECAST AREA ALONG WITH WARMING AND MOSTLY SUNNY/DRY SKIES THROUGH
THURSDAY. FRI...AS MENTIONED ABOVE...HERALDS THE APPROACH OF THE
NEXT PAC TROF. GOOD CONTINUITY BETWEEN MDLS NOW ENDS WITH NOW VASTLY
DIFFERING SOLUTIONS. WHILE THE GFS HAS MOSTLY STAYED THE COURSE IN
DEVELOPING A LARGE CLOSED LOW TROF WITH COLDER AIR DIGGING FURTHER
SWD...THE EURO HAS NOW DECIDED NOT TO DIG AND INSTEAD RATHER
BENIGNLY BRING AN EVER BROADENING TROF ACROSS THE CONUS NW...KEEPING
MOST MOISTURE AND PRECIP TO THE N OF THE FA. BOTH
SOLUTIONS...ALTHOUGH DIFFERING...SEEM PREDICATED ON THE DEVELOPMENT
AND PLACEMENT OF THE EPAC HIGH...WITH THE EURO ALLOWING IT TO
PENETRATE MUCH FURTHER EWD AND INTO THE CNTRL CONUS...IN EFFECT
MEETING UP WITH THE ERN CONUS HIGH. THE GFS MAINTAINS A DIVISION
BETWEEN THE TWO WITH A LARGE FLAT RIDGE OVERRUNNING THE CONUS AND
THE TROF/LOW BECOMING NEARLY CUT-OFF OVER THE INTERMOUNTAIN WEST.
WILL TAKE SOME TIME TO SEE WHICH SOLUTION BECOMES MORE CLEAR OR IF
THE EURO RETURNS TO WHAT IT AND THE GFS HAVE BEEN SAYING OVER THE
PAST COUPLE OF DAYS. BOTTOM LONE...SMALL POPS IN DAY 7 FOR MAINLY
THE WEST...FAR BELOW WHAT THE GFS WANTS...BUT MUCH MORE THAN THE
EURO.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER THROUGH 02Z BUT
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
DRIER CONDITIONS WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY
MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER
THE CURRENT WEATHER PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE
AREA. FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW
DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON









000
FXUS65 KRIW 191800
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
12 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER THROUGH 02Z BUT
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 191800
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
12 PM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER THROUGH 02Z BUT
WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM











000
FXUS65 KRIW 191546 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
938 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS AT ELEVATIONS
BELOW 8000 FEET IN YELLOWSTONE PARK THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z
THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 191538 CCA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED FOR ISSUANCE TIME
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
938 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM












000
FXUS65 KRIW 191538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 191538
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 191537
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 191537
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../16Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW CLOUDS WILL
PERSIST IN THE STAR AND JACKSON VALLEYS AS WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE
UPPER GREEN RIVER BASIN THROUGH 18Z. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL FROM 12Z THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL
STAY SOUTH OF THE KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM










000
FXUS65 KRIW 190956
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM 12Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 190956
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA
THIS MORNING. FREQUENT LIGHTNING HAS BEEN ASSOCIATED WITH SOME STORM
ACTIVITY...AND THIS THREAT WILL LINGER THIS MORNING. THE THREAT WILL
DIMINISH A BIT DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH. AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE COAST OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA
WILL HELP TO PUSH MOISTURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE FORECAST
AREA THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE
PRESENT...WITH THE THREATS FOR GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL.

ACTIVITY WILL WEAKEN THIS AFTERNOON AS NORTHWEST FLOW BUILDS OVER
THE AREA. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED BY SATURDAY MORNING
ACROSS THE AREA. DRY CONDITIONS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM WILL
LAST THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO FOLLOW A
COOLING TREND OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE
DESERT SOUTHWEST SUNDAY MORNING...HELPING TO GENERATE SOME SHOWER
AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY MORNING. SHOWER COVERAGE WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
ANTICIPATED BY SUNDAY EVENING. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH THIS
PROGRESSION WITH JUST SUBTLE DIFFERENCES ON INTENSITY AND AREAS OF
COVERAGE.


.LONG TERM...MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY

GFS AND ECMWF CONTINUE TO BRING AN UPPER LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA SUNDAY EVENING...THROUGH THE DAY MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
EFFECTS STILL BEING FELT ON TUESDAY. 700 MB TEMPERATURES APPEAR TO
BE TO WARM FOR SNOW WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO MAINLY SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED. MODEL QPF IS SHOWING SOME GOOD RAINFALL
POSSIBLE SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY...MAINLY ACROSS WESTERN AND
NORTHERN PORTIONS. THIS UPPER LOW WILL EXIT INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
DURING THE DAY TUESDAY...ENDING CHANCES FOR SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM WEST TO EAST. WARMING TEMPERATURES ARE THEN EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...AS A BRIEF RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
IN...BRINGING WITH IT WARM AND DRY AIR. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
COULD THEN BE EXPECTED...WITH READINGS IN THE 80S POSSIBLE FOR
WEDNESDAY AND ESPECIALLY THURSDAY...MAINLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. AN
INTERESTING WEATHER PATTERN WILL THEN SET UP LATE IN THE FORECAST
PERIOD. A LARGE TROUGH PUSHES ONSHORE THURSDAY EVENING THROUGH
FRIDAY MORNING. GFS IS A BIT MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH THIS SYSTEM...AND
SHOWING AN INITIAL PUSH OF MOISTURE COULD BRING SOME THUNDERSTORMS
AS EARLY AS THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS WESTERN WYOMING.
GFS SOLUTION SHOWS SHOWERS...THUNDERSTORMS...AND POSSIBLY SOME
HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW...WILL THEN BE POSSIBLE FOR FRIDAY...WITH THE
BEST CHANCES COMING ACROSS THE WEST. ECMWF IS A BIT SLOW WITH THIS
LARGE SYSTEM...AND DELAYS PRECIPITATION TO SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.
EITHER WAY...A STRONGER STORM SYSTEM LOOKS TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION FOR LATE NEXT WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL END FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
MORNING. LOCAL MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME MOUNTAIN
OBSCURATION. THE AREA FROM KRKS TO KCPR WILL SEE LINGER SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS FROM 12Z UNTIL 17Z. WIND GUSTS TO 30 KNOTS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FROM 12Z
THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG THE
SOUTHERN WY BORDER FROM 18Z THROUGH 02Z BUT WILL STAY SOUTH OF THE
KRKS AIRPORT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WILL CONTINUE THIS
MORNING. THOUGH FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND SOME GUSTY WIND WILL REMAIN
POSSIBLE THIS MORNING...COVERAGE IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THROUGH THE
MORNING AND AFTERNOON HOURS. DRY CONDITIONS WILL MOVE IN DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS...AND LINGER THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS UNDER THE CURRENT WEATHER
PATTERN...WITH INCREASED HUMIDITY OVER THE AREA. FIRE WEATHER
CONCERNS SHOULD BE ON THE LOW SIDE THE NEXT FEW DAYS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...ANGLIN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM






000
FXUS65 KRIW 190351
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
951 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THROUGH 12Z.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT)

DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVR WY...WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THRU AND CRESTING THE RIDGE. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TETON AND PARK
COUNTIES FROM THIS MORNING ON...CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING BEFORE
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP INTO CNTRL WY OVERNIGHT. MID-DAY ML CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 750
AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN ZONES...WITH 0-6 SHEAR RUNNING AROUND
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...AS
CAPE IS DECREASING HOWEVER. W/ CLOUD DECKS RUNNING 8 TO 10K
FT...STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY
SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS FROM BOTH SFC P GRAD AND THOSE
ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO SFC ARE COMBINING WITH LOCALLY LOW RH
VALUES TO GIVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AS SECOND SW RIDES THROUGH
AND FLATTENS THE FLOW. THIS WILL IN EFFECT KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE
HIGHER SIDE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
SUN-UP. THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ENSUES WITH BROAD TROF
SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN FA...AND REMNANT OF RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH WEAK SFC FRONT DIVING S ACROSS THE FA AS ANOTHER SMALL
SW GETS SQUEEZED THRU THIS FLOW/SET-UP WITH ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM SRN JOHNSON THRU NATRONA AND BRUSHING
ERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. STORM MODE WILL CARRY THRU THE
GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CAPE
POTENTIAL. FRIDAY`S SET-UP WILL ALSO HELP IN DECREASING AMBIENT WIND
ACROSS THE FA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHER RH AND LESS
WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHORTWAVE
WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY
FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
STRETCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY BEFORE IT WOBBLES NORTH
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOW WILL CUT-OFF NEAR SOUTHERN
CA AT THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWESTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. 250MB JET MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CENTERED AROUND
00Z/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. COULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WEST FROM ABOUT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST FAVORING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN 10-11K FEET...SO NO ELEVATION SNOW
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES
DOWNWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LINGERED SCATTERED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SHOULD BE A QUIETER AND WARMER DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING SYSTEM. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED THEM
ENOUGH...BUT AT THIS RANGE WILL AT LEAST TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE INTERESTING WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PUSHES FARTHER ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SITES. LOCL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING FROM A KCPR TO KRKS LINE UNTIL 17Z. THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING BY 03Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
OVERALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...KPL







000
FXUS65 KRIW 190351
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
951 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.UPDATE...SHOWERS AND STORMS CONTINUE OVER THE AREA AS THE TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. EXPECT THE ACTIVITY TO DECREASE FROM WEST TO
EAST OVERNIGHT. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO FORECAST THROUGH 12Z.

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY (ISSUED AT 313 PM MDT)

DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVR WY...WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THRU AND CRESTING THE RIDGE. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TETON AND PARK
COUNTIES FROM THIS MORNING ON...CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING BEFORE
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP INTO CNTRL WY OVERNIGHT. MID-DAY ML CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 750
AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN ZONES...WITH 0-6 SHEAR RUNNING AROUND
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...AS
CAPE IS DECREASING HOWEVER. W/ CLOUD DECKS RUNNING 8 TO 10K
FT...STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY
SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS FROM BOTH SFC P GRAD AND THOSE
ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO SFC ARE COMBINING WITH LOCALLY LOW RH
VALUES TO GIVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AS SECOND SW RIDES THROUGH
AND FLATTENS THE FLOW. THIS WILL IN EFFECT KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE
HIGHER SIDE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
SUN-UP. THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ENSUES WITH BROAD TROF
SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN FA...AND REMNANT OF RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH WEAK SFC FRONT DIVING S ACROSS THE FA AS ANOTHER SMALL
SW GETS SQUEEZED THRU THIS FLOW/SET-UP WITH ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM SRN JOHNSON THRU NATRONA AND BRUSHING
ERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. STORM MODE WILL CARRY THRU THE
GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CAPE
POTENTIAL. FRIDAY`S SET-UP WILL ALSO HELP IN DECREASING AMBIENT WIND
ACROSS THE FA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHER RH AND LESS
WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHORTWAVE
WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY
FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
STRETCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY BEFORE IT WOBBLES NORTH
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOW WILL CUT-OFF NEAR SOUTHERN
CA AT THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWESTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. 250MB JET MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CENTERED AROUND
00Z/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. COULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WEST FROM ABOUT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST FAVORING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN 10-11K FEET...SO NO ELEVATION SNOW
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES
DOWNWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LINGERED SCATTERED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SHOULD BE A QUIETER AND WARMER DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING SYSTEM. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED THEM
ENOUGH...BUT AT THIS RANGE WILL AT LEAST TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE INTERESTING WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PUSHES FARTHER ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT ACROSS
MUCH OF THE REGION...IMPACTING THE TERMINAL SITES. LOCL MVFR
CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR AT TIMES WITH MOUNTAINS OBSCURATIONS. SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL DECREASE FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS. LINGERING SHOWERS AND ISOLATED STORMS WILL OCCUR FRIDAY
MORNING FROM A KCPR TO KRKS LINE UNTIL 17Z. THEN THE ACTIVITY WILL
MOVE OUT OF THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS MAY OCCUR ALONG
THE SOUTHERN WYOMING BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON...ENDING BY 03Z
SATURDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
OVERALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

UPDATE...AR
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...KPL








000
FXUS65 KRIW 182113
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
313 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVR WY...WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THRU AND CRESTING THE RIDGE. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TETON AND PARK
COUNTIES FROM THIS MORNING ON...CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING BEFORE
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP INTO CNTRL WY OVERNIGHT. MID-DAY ML CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 750
AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN ZONES...WITH 0-6 SHEAR RUNNING AROUND
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...AS
CAPE IS DECREASING HOWEVER. W/ CLOUD DECKS RUNNING 8 TO 10K
FT...STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY
SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS FROM BOTH SFC P GRAD AND THOSE
ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO SFC ARE COMBINING WITH LOCALLY LOW RH
VALUES TO GIVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AS SECOND SW RIDES THROUGH
AND FLATTENS THE FLOW. THIS WILL IN EFFECT KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE
HIGHER SIDE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
SUN-UP. THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ENSUES WITH BROAD TROF
SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN FA...AND REMNANT OF RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH WEAK SFC FRONT DIVING S ACROSS THE FA AS ANOTHER SMALL
SW GETS SQUEEZED THRU THIS FLOW/SET-UP WITH ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM SRN JOHNSON THRU NATRONA AND BRUSHING
ERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. STORM MODE WILL CARRY THRU THE
GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CAPE
POTENTIAL. FRIDAY`S SET-UP WILL ALSO HELP IN DECREASING AMBIENT WIND
ACROSS THE FA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHER RH AND LESS
WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHORTWAVE
WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY
FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
STRETCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY BEFORE IT WOBBLES NORTH
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOW WILL CUT-OFF NEAR SOUTHERN
CA AT THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWESTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. 250MB JET MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CENTERED AROUND
00Z/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. COULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WEST FROM ABOUT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST FAVORING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN 10-11K FEET...SO NO ELEVATION SNOW
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES
DOWNWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LINGERED SCATTERED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SHOULD BE A QUIETER AND WARMER DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING SYSTEM. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED THEM
ENOUGH...BUT AT THIS RANGE WILL AT LEAST TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE INTERESTING WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PUSHES FARTHER ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND THEN FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE WAY...CONTINUING AND INFLUENCING TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....THEN AGAIN AFTER 18Z EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN DECREASE
AT/NEAR ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...BEFORE INCREASING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BY 21Z. BRIEF FORAYS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
OVERALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...KPL






000
FXUS65 KRIW 182113
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
313 PM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY

DIRTY RIDGE IN PLACE OVR WY...WITH A COUPLE OF SMALL SHORTWAVES
MOVING THRU AND CRESTING THE RIDGE. SHRA/TSRA ACROSS TETON AND PARK
COUNTIES FROM THIS MORNING ON...CONTINUING THRU THE EVENING BEFORE
THE RIDGE AXIS MOVES FAR ENOUGH EAST TO BRING SMALL CHANCES FOR
PRECIP INTO CNTRL WY OVERNIGHT. MID-DAY ML CAPE RUNNING BETWEEN 750
AND 1000 J/KG ACROSS THE WRN ZONES...WITH 0-6 SHEAR RUNNING AROUND
25 KTS LATE THIS AFTERNOON...INCREASING INTO THE EVENING PERIOD...AS
CAPE IS DECREASING HOWEVER. W/ CLOUD DECKS RUNNING 8 TO 10K
FT...STRONG OUTFLOW GUSTS OF 45 KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG WITH VERY
SMALL HAIL. ADDITIONALLY...WINDS FROM BOTH SFC P GRAD AND THOSE
ALOFT BEING BROUGHT DOWN TO SFC ARE COMBINING WITH LOCALLY LOW RH
VALUES TO GIVE RED FLAG CONDITIONS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY.
OVERNIGHT...RIDGE CONTINUES TO DRIFT EWD AS SECOND SW RIDES THROUGH
AND FLATTENS THE FLOW. THIS WILL IN EFFECT KEEP INSTABILITY ON THE
HIGHER SIDE WITH AT LEAST ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY CONTINUING
INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS BEFORE DECREASING IN COVERAGE BY
SUN-UP. THRU THE DAY FRIDAY...SPLIT FLOW ENSUES WITH BROAD TROF
SWINGING ACROSS THE NRN FA...AND REMNANT OF RIDGE ACROSS THE
SOUTH...WITH WEAK SFC FRONT DIVING S ACROSS THE FA AS ANOTHER SMALL
SW GETS SQUEEZED THRU THIS FLOW/SET-UP WITH ENOUGH COOLING ALOFT TO
INITIATE AND MAINTAIN SOME CONVECTION EAST OF THE DIVIDE ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONT MAINLY FROM SRN JOHNSON THRU NATRONA AND BRUSHING
ERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER COUNTIES. STORM MODE WILL CARRY THRU THE
GUSTY WIND POSSIBILITY FOR ANOTHER DAY WITH SOMEWHAT LESS CAPE
POTENTIAL. FRIDAY`S SET-UP WILL ALSO HELP IN DECREASING AMBIENT WIND
ACROSS THE FA...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPS...HIGHER RH AND LESS
WIND.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

MEDIUM-RANGE MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MIDDLE
PORTION OF NEXT WEEK WITH ONLY MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES. SHORTWAVE
WILL COMPLETE ITS TRANSIT OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY EVENING WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION ACROSS THE EAST AND NORTH. DRIER NORTHWEST FLOW
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL ENVELOP THE REGION SATURDAY WITH VERY
FEW CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURES FALLING CLOSER TO SEASONAL NORMALS.
ELONGATED DEFORMATION AXIS TRAILING THE DEPARTING SHORTWAVE WILL
STRETCH ALONG OUR SOUTHERN BORDER SATURDAY BEFORE IT WOBBLES NORTH
AGAIN ON SUNDAY. TO THE SOUTHWEST...LOW WILL CUT-OFF NEAR SOUTHERN
CA AT THE BASE OF THE LONG-WAVE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY
BEFORE EJECTING NORTHWESTWARD. THIS UPPER LOW WILL TRAVERSE THE
GREAT BASIN SATURDAY AND BEGIN TO SPREAD MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INTO
THE SOUTHWEST EARLY SUNDAY. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE SCATTERED
SUNDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND SLOWLY SPREAD NORTHEAST
DURING THE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT HOURS. 250MB JET MAY ENHANCE
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST CENTERED AROUND
00Z/MONDAY. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING THE UPPER LOW ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA MONDAY AND TUESDAY...WITH THE GFS STILL TRENDING
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE ECMWF. COULD BE SOME GOOD RAINFALL ACROSS
THE WEST FROM ABOUT SUNDAY EVENING THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON BEFORE
THE LOW BEGINS TO SLIDE EAST FAVORING PRECIPITATION EAST OF THE
DIVIDE. SNOW LEVELS WILL REMAIN 10-11K FEET...SO NO ELEVATION SNOW
THREAT WITH THIS SYSTEM. LOOKS AS THOUGH CONVECTION WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY MORNING ALTHOUGH THE ECMWF LINGERS THE
PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. HAVE TRENDED PRECIP CHANCES
DOWNWARD TUESDAY AFTERNOON BUT HAVE LINGERED SCATTERED LOW POPS
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. REGARDLESS...MONDAY WILL BE THE COOLEST DAY
OF THE PERIOD ALTHOUGH IT WILL BE JUST SLIGHTLY COOLER THAN NORMAL.
TEMPERATURES THEN BEGIN TO WARM TUESDAY THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD. TRANSITORY SHORTWAVE RIDGE CROSSES THE STATE
WEDNESDAY...SO SHOULD BE A QUIETER AND WARMER DAY AHEAD OF THE NEXT
LARGE-SCALE TROUGH TAKING SHAPE OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. THIS
TROUGH WILL STILL BE WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA THURSDAY AND EXPECT
STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF THIS DIGGING SYSTEM. HAVE BUMPED
TEMPERATURES FOR THURSDAY AND MAY NOT HAVE INCREASED THEM
ENOUGH...BUT AT THIS RANGE WILL AT LEAST TREND IN THAT DIRECTION.
MORE INTERESTING WEATHER ARRIVES NEXT WEEKEND AS LONG-WAVE TROUGH
PUSHES FARTHER ONSHORE.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION
TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...AND THEN FRIDAY EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THESE
DISTURBANCES WILL HELP TO PRODUCE SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ALONG
THE WAY...CONTINUING AND INFLUENCING TERMINAL SITES ACROSS THE WEST
THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY....THEN AGAIN AFTER 18Z EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF THESE
STORMS IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE GUSTY
OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES. AFTER 03Z TONIGHT SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
SLIGHTLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY WILL THEN DECREASE
AT/NEAR ALL TERMINALS BY 12Z...BEFORE INCREASING EAST OF THE DIVIDE
BY 21Z. BRIEF FORAYS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY
OF THESE STORMS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION LATE TONIGHT AND
FRIDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW A WEAK SURFACE COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH
MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY MORNING. THE RESULT WILL BE HIGHER
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...THE AIRMASS
DRIES OUT LATE FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. SUNDAY WILL ALSO BE DRY WITH
SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS INCREASING OVER THE SOUTH AND WEST.
OVERALL...FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS REMAIN RATHER LOW ACROSS WEST
CENTRAL WYOMING.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...CNJ
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...KPL







000
FXUS65 KRIW 181715
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DECENT SLUGS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE CHANGE IN WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF. DRY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL SEND SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE COWBOY STATE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS A WARM ONE...SO ANY SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO 11+ KFT MSL. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER IN KICKING
THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS...WITH SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS...MAINLY
SLIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY FOR THE TREND OF THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE QUICKEST
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A
SPLITTING TROUGH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE WAY...CONTINUING AND INFLUENCING MOST TERMINAL
SITES...EXCEPT FOR KCPR...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES. AFTER 03Z FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF FORAYS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NATRONA
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WIND...AND
LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL EITHER SEE WIND OR HUMIDITY WHICH IS NOT
CRITICAL...OR FUELS HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO BE TOO MOIST TO BE
CONCERNED WITH EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM








000
FXUS65 KRIW 181715
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1115 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DECENT SLUGS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE CHANGE IN WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF. DRY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL SEND SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE COWBOY STATE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS A WARM ONE...SO ANY SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO 11+ KFT MSL. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER IN KICKING
THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS...WITH SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS...MAINLY
SLIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY FOR THE TREND OF THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE QUICKEST
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A
SPLITTING TROUGH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. A COUPLE OF
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL MOVE INTO AND THROUGH THE REGION TODAY
AND TONIGHT FROM THE WEST...PRODUCING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS
ALONG THE WAY...CONTINUING AND INFLUENCING MOST TERMINAL
SITES...EXCEPT FOR KCPR...THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. WEST OF THE
DIVIDE...OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH SOME OF
THESE STORMS IN ADDITION TO SMALL HAIL. EAST OF THE DIVIDE SHOWERS
AND STORMS WILL BE MORE ISOLATED BUT WILL STILL BE ABLE TO PRODUCE
GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AT TIMES. AFTER 03Z FRIDAY SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO
INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH A COUPLE OF ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. BRIEF FORAYS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS WILL BE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY OF THESE STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NATRONA
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WIND...AND
LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL EITHER SEE WIND OR HUMIDITY WHICH IS NOT
CRITICAL...OR FUELS HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO BE TOO MOIST TO BE
CONCERNED WITH EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM







000
FXUS65 KRIW 180856
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
256 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DECENT SLUGS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE CHANGE IN WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF. DRY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL SEND SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE COWBOY STATE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS A WARM ONE...SO ANY SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO 11+ KFT MSL. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER IN KICKING
THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS...WITH SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS...MAINLY
SLIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY FOR THE TREND OF THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE QUICKEST
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A
SPLITTING TROUGH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NW WY THROUGH 12Z. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER WESTERN WY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH STORMS. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NATRONA
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WIND...AND
LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL EITHER SEE WIND OR HUMIDITY WHICH IS NOT
CRITICAL...OR FUELS HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO BE TOO MOIST TO BE
CONCERNED WITH EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM









000
FXUS65 KRIW 180856
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
256 AM MDT THU SEP 18 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

THE RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST THROUGH THE
FORECAST AREA TODAY. EXPECT SOME CONTINUED SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY THIS MORNING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE WESTERN THIRD OF THE
FORECAST AREA. THE RIDGE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO CONTINUE THEIR
WARMING TREND TODAY...WITH SEVERAL STATIONS SEEING THE POTENTIAL TO
EXPERIENCE RECORD BREAKING HIGH TEMPERATURES. ADDITIONALLY...THE
PERSISTENT AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN CRITICAL FIRE
WEATHER BEHAVIOR ACROSS PORTIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY THIS AFTERNOON.
DETAILS CAN BE FOUND IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS.

THE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW BUILDING OVER THE AREA. DECENT SLUGS
OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE THROUGH WESTERN WYOMING...WITH
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUING. GUSTY WIND AND SMALL HAIL WILL
BE POSSIBLE WITH STORMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS.

WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW REMAINS OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...WITH A WEAKER PUSH OF MOISTURE. THE CHANGE IN WEATHER
PATTERN WILL ALLOW SOME COOLER TEMPERATURES TO BE PRESENT ACROSS THE
AREA INTO THE WEEKEND. WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL ANTICIPATED...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA. A RETURN OF HIGH PRESSURE IS ANTICIPATED
BY SATURDAY MORNING...WITH SHOWER ACTIVITY TAPERING OFF. DRY
GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS THEN ANTICIPATED THROUGH SATURDAY EVENING.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

A CUT OFF UPPER LOW OVER THE GREAT BASIN SUNDAY WILL SEND SOME
CONVECTION INTO THE WEST/SOUTHWEST SUNDAY AFTERNOON. GLOBAL MODELS
SHOW THIS UPPER LOW PUSHING NORTHEAST INTO THE COWBOY STATE LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY MORNING. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING CHANCES
OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH AN EMPHASIS ACROSS THE
SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH...BUT THE ENTIRE AREA WILL HAVE A SHOT AT SOME
PRECIPITATION. THIS SYSTEM IS A WARM ONE...SO ANY SNOW WILL BE
CONFINED TO 11+ KFT MSL. THE 00Z ECMWF AND GEM ARE SLOWER IN KICKING
THIS UPPER LOW OUT OF THE AREA THAN THE 00Z GFS...WITH SOME
LINGERING CONVECTION ON TUESDAY. HAVE ADDED POPS...MAINLY
SLIGHT...ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA TUESDAY FOR THE TREND OF THE
SLOWER SOLUTIONS OF THE ECMWF AND GEM. WEDNESDAY SHOULD BE DRY AND
WARM AHEAD OF A TROUGH THAT COULD IMPACT THE AREA THURSDAY AND/OR
FRIDAY. GLOBAL MODELS AND THEIR RESPECTIVE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS HAVE
CONSIDERABLE VARIABILITY IN TIMING/STRENGTH OF THIS TROUGH LATE
NEXT WEEK INTO NEXT WEEKEND. THE OPERATIONAL GFS IS THE QUICKEST
PUSHING A STRONG COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THE DAY THURSDAY...WHILE THE ECMWF IS SLOWER WITH A
SPLITTING TROUGH WITH FRONTAL PASSAGE ON FRIDAY.

TEMPERATURES THROUGH MUCH OF THE EXTENDED WILL BE ABOVE TO WELL
ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NW WY THROUGH 12Z. A
WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION TODAY AND TONIGHT.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL DEVELOP AFTER 18Z OVER WESTERN WY
AND CONTINUE THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL
BE LIKELY WITH STORMS. EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOWERS AND
STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED TODAY AND TONIGHT. AFTER 06Z FRIDAY SHOWERS
WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE IN CENTRAL WY ALONG WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING ANOTHER WARM DAY ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING. SOME AREAS WILL SEE SOME GUSTY WIND DEVELOPING DURING THE
AFTERNOON HOURS...ESPECIALLY OVER SWEETWATER AND NATRONA COUNTIES.
RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL DECREASE TODAY...ESPECIALLY OVER NATRONA
COUNTY. THE COMBINATION OF CRITICALLY DRY FUELS...GUSTY WIND...AND
LOW HUMIDITY HAS RESULTED IN THE ISSUANCE OF A RED FLAG WARNING THIS
AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWER ELEVATIONS OF NATRONA COUNTY. THE REMAINDER
OF THE AREA WILL EITHER SEE WIND OR HUMIDITY WHICH IS NOT
CRITICAL...OR FUELS HAVE BEEN DETERMINED TO BE TOO MOIST TO BE
CONCERNED WITH EXPLOSIVE FIRE GROWTH. RED FLAG CONDITIONS COULD
TAPER OFF QUICKLY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ280.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRANHAM
LONG TERM...WM
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...BRANHAM








000
FXUS65 KRIW 180523
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1123 PM MDT WED SEP 17 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY (ISSUED AT 205 PM MDT)

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND AGAIN
THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING TREND WITH
SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN JOHNSON COUNTY.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

THE BROAD SCALE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH AN APPROACHING TROUGH TO OUR
WEST WILL ENCOURAGE A FEW MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS ON THURSDAY THAT
WILL LIKELY LAST WELL INTO THURSDAY NIGHT AS AN ASSOCIATED COLD
FRONT PLOWS ACROSS THE AREA. WEST WINDS WILL BE BREEZY EARLY IN THE
EVENING AS THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE
WEST...TIGHTENING THE GRADIENT ALOFT AS A LEE SIDE TROUGH DIGS AT
THE SURFACE.

A SPLITTING TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY KEEPING SOME
SHOWERS AND STORMS GOING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE DIVIDE WHERE SOME
MORE MOISTURE WILL ENCOURAGE SOME MORE ROBUST CAPE VALUES. A
REINFORCING SHORTWAVE MAY ALSO AID IN THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT AND
COVERAGE DEPENDING ON WHEN IT ARRIVES. SHEAR WILL BE DECENT ACROSS
THE AREA SO STORMS WILL BE ABLE TO SUSTAIN THEMSELVES FOR A
WHILE...HIGH END SCATTERED COVERAGE IS EXPECTED GIVEN THEIR
SUSTAINABILITY AND MODERATE 20 TO 30KT STORM MOTION.

THE ATMOSPHERE DRIES OUT QUICKLY ON SATURDAY WITH VERY PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S ACROSS THE STATE WITH LIGHT WINDS. THERE IS
STILL A LITTLE MORE UNCERTAINTY AS WE GO INTO SUNDAY. THE MODELS
HAVE BEEN HAVING A TOUGH TIME WITH THIS NEXT SYSTEM THIS
WEEK...PREVIOUS RUNS HAVE GONE FROM SOLUTIONS THAT WERE COMPLETELY
OUT OF PHASE WITH ONE ANOTHER TO BRINGING A CLOSED UPPER LOW RIGHT
INTO THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN AND OVER OUR REGION SOMETIME ON SUNDAY
NIGHT OR MONDAY...NOW IT LOOKS LIKE THE MODELS ARE STICKING CLOSER
TO THE LATTER SOLUTION EXCEPT THE ECMWF IS MORE BULLISH THIS TIME AS
IT FORMS A COLD CORE LOW OVER NEVADA WHILE THE GFS STICKS WITH A
LESS ORGANIZED UPPER LOW...NOT FAVORING ANY SOLUTION AT THIS POINT
BUT THE FORMATION OF A SLOW MOVING LOW WITH A CORE THAT COOL SEEMS
UNLIKELY. EITHER WAY...THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOWLY TRACK
EAST-NORTHEAST FROM NV/UT SUNDAY NIGHT INTO NORTHEASTERN COLORADO BY
TUESDAY MORNING. IT COULD BE PEELING OFF SOME MOISTURE FROM
TROPICAL STORM POLO EARLY NEXT WEEK...IN COMBINATION WITH SOUTHERLY
FLOW AT THE SURFACE DRAWING UP SOME LINGERING MOISTURE OVER THE
PLAINS...LEFTOVERS FROM ODILE...WHICH COULD RESULT IN SOME DECENT
RAINFALL POTENTIAL BUT GIVEN THE RECENT UNCERTAINTY OF MODEL
SOLUTIONS LATELY...WENT VERY CONSERVATIVE WITH POPS BUT AT IS STANDS
NOW...IT LOOKS LIKE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE STATE HAS THE BEST
CHANCE OF A WETTING RAIN SUNDAY AND MONDAY WITH SOME QUESTION AS TO
WHETHER OR NOT IT WILL LINGER INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

ISOLATED SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL MOVE THROUGH NW WY AFTER 08Z AND
END BY 12Z. A WEATHER SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING CLOSER TO THE REGION
ON THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
DEVELOP AFTER 18Z THURS OVER WESTERN WY AND CONTINUE THROUGH 06Z
FRIDAY. OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS TO 35 KNOTS WILL BE LIKELY WITH STORMS.
EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE ISOLATED
THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. VFR CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THROUGH
THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD OVER THE AREA.
LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY IN WEST FLOW ALOFT WILL BRING
SCATTERED SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING AND
AGAIN THURSDAY AFTERNOON. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE WARMING TREND
WITH SOME LOWER 90S POSSIBLE THURSDAY AFTERNOON IN JOHNSON COUNTY.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...ALLEN
AVIATION...AR
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








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