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000
FXUS65 KRIW 030452
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1051 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE OVER MONTANA WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE STRONGER DRY
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AS FCST PERIOD BEGINS...UPPER LEVELS HAVE A FAST UPR SWRLY FLOW OVR
WY W/ WRN CONUS TROF ANGLED FROM SRN SASKATUAN TO NRN CALIFORNIA. SW
DISTURBANCE TRAVELLING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TOT HE NWRN/NRN BORDER AT THIS TIME. THE SFC WILL HAVE A
QUICKLY DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS ERN WY WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT
JUST PUSHING INTO THE NRN/NWRN CWA.

WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIGHT PRESSURE GRAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE
CYCLONE WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH BY THE FRONT...ELIMINATING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST...PROBABLY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF...AND FOR THE MOST PART BEHIND...
THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROF...AND WITH NO TIME TO
RELOAD MOISTURE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WILL FALL. WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE DOES FALL WILL HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSER EXTENT...ALONG/NEAR SFC
FRONT/BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN FCST ZONES THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND THE
COOLEST...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S EVEN ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ONLY GET TO AROUND 40 IN MANY
CASES. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SW MID TO UPR FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH
OCCASIONAL BLIPS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THRU...MOISTURE WILL BE
HELD OFF TO SRN/CNTRL UPR LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABLE TO REDIRECT SOME OF THIS VERTICALLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLES. AGAIN...A SECONDARY
AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR SFC
FRONT NEAR THE SRN WY/CO BORDER.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...SEASONALLY COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. LR MDLS
TRENDING SIMILAR THRU THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCES THAT DO NOT REALLY IMPACT THE FCST
SIGNIFICANTLY. AGAIN...LARGE WRN CONUS TROF SPLITS INTO STALLED SRN
BRANCH OVR THE FAR SW CONUS...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION TRANSLATES
QUICKLY EWD...DIVIDING THE COUNTRY INTO A LARGE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
FROM W TO E. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE WED/THU FRONT...TAKING OVR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE
CNTRL AND WRN CONUS...SUPPRESSING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ON
THE GROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST. OVERALL...EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF UPR LVL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MON/TUE...AREAS FAVORED FOR A LITTLE BETTER
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND FAVOR THE SRN ZONES
FIRST...CNTRL MOUNTAINS SECOND...THEN NRN MOUNTAINS LAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

EAST OF THE DIVIDE...KCOD/KCPR/KLND/KRIW/KWRL ROUTES

AN APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM COULD RESULT IN SOME LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR ON THE LEE SIDE OF MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WHICH COULD IMPACT KCOD AND KLND TERMINALS. STRONG WEST TO
SOUTHWEST WIND WILL BE THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN THIS AFTERNOON
ALONG WITH MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE. A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH
INTO NORTHERN WYOMING AROUND 21Z AND SURGE SOUTH TO THE DIVIDE BY
06Z THURSDAY...SWITCHING WINDS TO THE NORTH AND REMAINING BREEZY TO
WINDY. A VERY ISOLATED SHOWER CANNOT BE RULED OUT OVER THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING. IN WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...THE
BOUNDARY LAYER WILL GRADUALLY MOISTEN UP WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR
SOME LOW CLOUDS DEVELOPING AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS
LOW AT THE MOMENT.

WEST OF THE DIVIDE...KBPI/KJAC/KPNA/KRKS ROUTES

THE MAIN AVIATION CONCERN WILL BE STRONG WEST TO SOUTHWEST WIND
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AND MOUNTAIN TURBULENCE. WINDS
WILL WEAKEN IN THE EVENING...BUT A DRY COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHWEST ACROSS SWEETWATER COUNTY INCLUDING KRKS TERMINAL
AFTER 06Z.


NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FOR KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO
WINDIER. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT.  THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289.
RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER












000
FXUS65 KRIW 021942
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
142 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE OVER MONTANA WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE STRONGER DRY
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AS FCST PERIOD BEGINS...UPPER LEVELS HAVE A FAST UPR SWRLY FLOW OVR
WY W/ WRN CONUS TROF ANGLED FROM SRN SASKATUAN TO NRN CALIFORNIA. SW
DISTURBANCE TRAVELLING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TOT HE NWRN/NRN BORDER AT THIS TIME. THE SFC WILL HAVE A
QUICKLY DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS ERN WY WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT
JUST PUSHING INTO THE NRN/NWRN CWA.

WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIGHT PRESSURE GRAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE
CYCLONE WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH BY THE FRONT...ELIMINATING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST...PROBABLY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF...AND FOR THE MOST PART BEHIND...
THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROF...AND WITH NO TIME TO
RELOAD MOISTURE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WILL FALL. WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE DOES FALL WILL HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSER EXTENT...ALONG/NEAR SFC
FRONT/BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN FCST ZONES THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND THE
COOLEST...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S EVEN ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ONLY GET TO AROUND 40 IN MANY
CASES. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SW MID TO UPR FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH
OCCASIONAL BLIPS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THRU...MOISTURE WILL BE
HELD OFF TO SRN/CNTRL UPR LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABLE TO REDIRECT SOME OF THIS VERTICALLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLES. AGAIN...A SECONDARY
AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR SFC
FRONT NEAR THE SRN WY/CO BORDER.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...SEASONALLY COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. LR MDLS
TRENDING SIMILAR THRU THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCES THAT DO NOT REALLY IMPACT THE FCST
SIGNIFICANTLY. AGAIN...LARGE WRN CONUS TROF SPLITS INTO STALLED SRN
BRANCH OVR THE FAR SW CONUS...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION TRANSLATES
QUICKLY EWD...DIVIDING THE COUNTRY INTO A LARGE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
FROM W TO E. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE WED/THU FRONT...TAKING OVR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE
CNTRL AND WRN CONUS...SUPPRESSING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ON
THE GROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST. OVERALL...EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF UPR LVL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MON/TUE...AREAS FAVORED FOR A LITTLE BETTER
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND FAVOR THE SRN ZONES
FIRST...CNTRL MOUNTAINS SECOND...THEN NRN MOUNTAINS LAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH IN WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE SKC. AREAS OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 02Z AND REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AROUND
16Z.

NOTE...OBSERVATION FROM KCOD REMAINS UNAVAILABLE DUE TO EQUIPMENT
FAILURE...WAITING ON FAA TECH TO REPAIR.  TAF CONTINUED AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO
WINDIER. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT.  THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289.
RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER








000
FXUS65 KRIW 021942
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
142 PM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL
WYOMING THROUGH WEDNESDAY. LIMITED MOISTURE OVER MONTANA WILL
BRUSH THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON ALONG A COLD
FRONT AND MAY PRODUCE SOME LIGHT SHOWERS. OTHERWISE STRONGER DRY
WINDS ALOFT WILL MIX DOWN TO THE SURFACE ACROSS PORTIONS OF
SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WITH STRONG WIND GUSTS EARLY THIS
EVENING AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

AS FCST PERIOD BEGINS...UPPER LEVELS HAVE A FAST UPR SWRLY FLOW OVR
WY W/ WRN CONUS TROF ANGLED FROM SRN SASKATUAN TO NRN CALIFORNIA. SW
DISTURBANCE TRAVELLING AROUND THE BASE OF THE MAIN TROF WILL BE VERY
CLOSE TOT HE NWRN/NRN BORDER AT THIS TIME. THE SFC WILL HAVE A
QUICKLY DEEPENING LEE SIDE TROF ACROSS ERN WY WITH ASSOCIATED FRONT
JUST PUSHING INTO THE NRN/NWRN CWA.

WED NIGHT AND THURSDAY...TIGHT PRESSURE GRAD ASSOCIATED WITH THE LEE
CYCLONE WILL GET PUSHED SOUTH BY THE FRONT...ELIMINATING RED FLAG
CONDITIONS THRU THE REST OF THE FCST...PROBABLY. WITH DRY AIR IN
PLACE OVR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF...AND FOR THE MOST PART BEHIND...
THE FRONT AND THE ASSOCIATED UPR LVL TROF...AND WITH NO TIME TO
RELOAD MOISTURE...LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIP WILL FALL. WHAT LITTLE
MOISTURE DOES FALL WILL HAVE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TO A LITTLE LESSER EXTENT...ALONG/NEAR SFC
FRONT/BOUNDARY AS IT MOVES INTO THE SRN FCST ZONES THROUGH THE
EVENING. THURSDAY...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE
EXTENDED FCST PERIOD...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND THE
COOLEST...WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S EVEN ACROSS
THE SRN ZONES. THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS ONLY GET TO AROUND 40 IN MANY
CASES. AGAIN...ALTHOUGH SW MID TO UPR FLOW WILL BE QUITE BRISK WITH
OCCASIONAL BLIPS OF ADDITIONAL ENERGY MOVING THRU...MOISTURE WILL BE
HELD OFF TO SRN/CNTRL UPR LEVELS FOR THE MOST PART WITH ONLY THE
HIGHER MOUNTAIN PEAKS ABLE TO REDIRECT SOME OF THIS VERTICALLY
ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A BRIEF SHOWER OR SPRINKLES. AGAIN...A SECONDARY
AREA OF VERY LIGHT PRECIP WILL BE BRIEFLY POSSIBLE OVER/NEAR SFC
FRONT NEAR THE SRN WY/CO BORDER.

FRIDAY AND BEYOND...SEASONALLY COOL AND RELATIVELY DRY. LR MDLS
TRENDING SIMILAR THRU THE REST OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD WITH ONLY A
FEW RATHER SMALL DIFFERENCES THAT DO NOT REALLY IMPACT THE FCST
SIGNIFICANTLY. AGAIN...LARGE WRN CONUS TROF SPLITS INTO STALLED SRN
BRANCH OVR THE FAR SW CONUS...WHILE THE NORTHERN PORTION TRANSLATES
QUICKLY EWD...DIVIDING THE COUNTRY INTO A LARGE RIDGE/TROF PATTERN
FROM W TO E. ADDITIONALLY...A BROAD AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL FILL
IN BEHIND THE WED/THU FRONT...TAKING OVR MUCH OF THE NRN HALF OF THE
CNTRL AND WRN CONUS...SUPPRESSING MUCH AVAILABLE MOISTURE TO THE
SOUTH OF THE FA...MAKING IT TOUGH TO GET MUCH MEASURABLE PRECIP ON
THE GROUND THROUGH MOST OF THE FCST. OVERALL...EVEN WITH OCCASIONAL
BOUTS OF UPR LVL ENERGY MOVING THROUGH OVERHEAD...AND A CLIPPER TYPE
FRONTAL PASSAGE NEXT MON/TUE...AREAS FAVORED FOR A LITTLE BETTER
PRECIP POTENTIAL WILL FOLLOW SUIT AND FAVOR THE SRN ZONES
FIRST...CNTRL MOUNTAINS SECOND...THEN NRN MOUNTAINS LAST.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY. A FEW HIGH CLOUDS
WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH IN WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF WESTERN
AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE SKC. AREAS OF SOUTHWEST SURFACE WINDS
15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE SOUTH
AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 02Z AND REDEVELOP ON WEDNESDAY AROUND
16Z.

NOTE...OBSERVATION FROM KCOD REMAINS UNAVAILABLE DUE TO EQUIPMENT
FAILURE...WAITING ON FAA TECH TO REPAIR.  TAF CONTINUED AS VFR
CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS EVENING AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TONIGHT AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO
WINDIER. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT.  THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING
THE WINDS TO THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH
RANGE WITH GUSTS OVER 45 MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED
FLAG WARNING IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289.
RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









000
FXUS65 KRIW 021636
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1036 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE IS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH WORKING THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WYOMING...LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS
FAR SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY
20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING AROUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND THE TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT BE AS SHARP.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST WY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR. DRY ELSEWHERE AS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE STABLE WITH VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PER THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY AREAS MONDAY AND SEASONABLY
WARM. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BRISK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH WY NEXT TUE
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTION FOR HIGH TEMPS. HAVE
PLAYED HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND 8 TO 12
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS HIGHER ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL PLAY A BLEND AND HAVE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.  A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH IN WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE SKC. AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 02Z AND REDEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AROUND 16Z.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TODAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED. TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TODAY AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO WINDIER.
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER NOON ON
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
OVER 45MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG
WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND
289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 021636
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1036 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE IS A MUCH DRIER AIR MASS MOVING IN
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH WORKING THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WYOMING...LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS
FAR SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY
20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING AROUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND THE TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT BE AS SHARP.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST WY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR. DRY ELSEWHERE AS AIR MASS LOOKS TO BE STABLE WITH VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PER THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY AREAS MONDAY AND SEASONABLY
WARM. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BRISK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH WY NEXT TUE
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTION FOR HIGH TEMPS. HAVE
PLAYED HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND 8 TO 12
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS HIGHER ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL PLAY A BLEND AND HAVE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT TUE.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY.  A FEW HIGH
CLOUDS WILL MOVE OVER THE NORTH IN WEST FLOW ALOFT. THE REST OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE SKC. AREAS OF SOUTHWEST
SURFACE WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS WITH GUSTS TO 35 KTS WILL PERSIST
ACROSS THE SOUTH AND CENTRAL AREAS THROUGH 02Z AND REDEVELOP ON
WEDNESDAY AROUND 16Z.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TODAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED. TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

..RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TODAY AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO WINDIER.
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER NOON ON
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
OVER 45MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG
WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND
289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 020956
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE IS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH WORKING THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WYOMING...LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS
FAR SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY
20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING AROUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND THE TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT BE AS SHARP.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST WY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR. DRY ELSEWHERE AS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE STABLE WITH VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PER THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY AREAS MONDAY AND SEASONABLY
WARM. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BRISK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH WY NEXT TUE
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTION FOR HIGH TEMPS. HAVE
PLAYED HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND 8 TO 12
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS HIGHER ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL PLAY A BLEND AND HAVE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TODAY AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO WINDIER.
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER NOON ON
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
OVER 45MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG
WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND
289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 020956
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
356 AM MDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IS CONFIRMING WHAT THE MODELS HAVE BEEN
ADVERTISING FOR A FEW DAYS...THERE IS A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS MOVING IN
AS THE FLOW TURNS MORE SOUTHWEST. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE
SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING
BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE WILL BE SOME GUSTS TO 30
MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH WORKING THEIR WAY INTO PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
WYOMING...LEADING TO INCREASED FIRE DANGER THIS AFTERNOON.

WEDNESDAY...MODELS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WITH
SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH IF ANY PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS
FAR SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY
20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS
MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON.

THURSDAY...MUCH COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SOME CLOUD COVER
HANGING AROUND ALONG AND EAST OF THE DIVIDE. DRY SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW
REMAINS ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH...THOUGH WINDS WILL NOT BE AS
STRONG AND THE TEMPERATURE CHANGES WILL NOT BE AS SHARP.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

A LITTLE WARMER ON FRIDAY WITH ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS FOR
SOUTHWEST WY IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHERE BETTER INSTABILITY
WILL OCCUR. DRY ELSEWHERE AS AIRMASS LOOKS TO BE STABLE WITH VERY
ISOLATED ACTIVITY. WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT FOR SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY WITH WEAK DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW PER THE GFS AND ECMWF
MODELS. ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS
AND STORMS BOTH DAYS. HIGH TEMPS TO WARM A FEW DEGREES SATURDAY
AND SUNDAY. MONDAY LOOKS TO BE MORE OF THE SAME WITH ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS. EXPECT SOME BREEZY AREAS MONDAY AND SEASONABLY
WARM. THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER NEXT TUESDAY WITH THE STRENGTH AND
MOVEMENT OF A WEATHER SYSTEM ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. A BRISK
COLD FRONT IS FORECAST BY BOTH MODELS TO MOVE THROUGH WY NEXT TUE
WITH THE GFS BEING THE COLDER MODEL SOLUTION FOR HIGH TEMPS. HAVE
PLAYED HIGHS 10 TO 15 DEGREES COOLER OVER THE NORTH AND 8 TO 12
DEGREES COOLER OVER THE SOUTH. PRECIP CHANCE LOOKS HIGHER ON THE
GFS VERSUS THE ECMWF. FOR NOW WILL PLAY A BLEND AND HAVE ISOLATED
TO WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS/STORMS NEXT TUE.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF RAWLINS...CODY
AND CASPER DISPATCH THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY...

MUCH WARMER AND DRIER TODAY AND TOMORROW...IN ADDITION TO WINDIER.
VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL DEVELOP
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER NOON ON
CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT. THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND
STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING
UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY EVENING...AT WHICH TIME A DRY COLD
FRONT WILL BE DROPPING INTO NORTHERN WYOMING...SHIFTING THE WINDS TO
THE NORTH WITH WINDS REMAINING IN THE 20 TO 30 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS
OVER 45MPH IN AREAS PRONE TO NORTHERLY WIND. RED FLAG WARNING IS IN
EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TODAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG
WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND
LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND
289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TODAY TO 8 PM MDT THIS EVENING
WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 020505
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1105 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITING EAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RIDGING
TAKES HOLD. DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
SURFACE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS. WARING WILL RESULT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THRU WED NIGHT...PROBABLY THE SIGNIFICANT WX PARAMETERS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ARE DIRECTLY AS RESULT OF UPR ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
TO TRANSITION TO STRONG SW FLOW WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...RAPID
DRYING NEAR SFC OCCURS AS DEEPENING LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN WY ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRAD/FRONTOGENESIS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE NW CONUS UPR LVL TROF. ADDITIONALLY
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...UPR LVL WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE DAY WED AS JET LVL WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KTS AHEAD OF THIS TROF. THIS SITUATION ALONG
WITH SFC TO H5 LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 DEG
C/KM...ALBEIT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH STILL BE MORE THAN
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE INCREASED UPR LVL FLOW
AND REINFORCE THE P GRAD INDUCED WINDS AT THE SFC. ATTM...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER
ELEMENTS LOOK TO EASILY EXCEED MIN CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS >= 25 KTS AND RH<= 15
PERCENT...SO LOOKING TO ADD FIRE WX ZONES 279 280 283 AND 289 INTO
WATCH/WARNING. THANKFULLY THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED
AS THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SWEEPS THRU THE FA FROM N TO
S...ELIMINATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ITS UPR
LVL COUSIN...AND NO TIME TO RELOAD MOISTURE...VERY LITTLE PRECIP
WILL HAVE A CHC TO FALL AND WHAT LITTLE DOES WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH THE REST/END OF THE FORECAST...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND
LIKELY THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER REACHES WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ONLY GET INTO THE UPR
30S TO LOWER 40S.

OTHERWISE...LR MDLS ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH HOW TO TREAT THE
WRN CONUS TROF THRU THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...STARTING ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THERE ARE COMMONALITIES THRU THE EXTENDED WHICH HAVE THE
MOST MERIT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...RELATIVELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE CONTACT WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FA WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EVEN
WITH PERIODS OF UPR LVL INSTABILITY AND A BRUSH WITH ANOTHER (BACK
DOOR THIS TIME) FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND ANOTHER
WEAKER ONE NEXT MONDAY...HIGHER PRECIP PROBS AND QPF WILL LIKELY
STAY NEARER THE SRN OR SERN ZONES...CLOSER TO A LITTLE BETTER
MOISTURE AND FORCING. HAVE TWEAKED FCST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS WITH SKC SKIES. LIGHT WINDS THROUGH TUESDAY
MORNING...WITH BREEZY SOUTHWEST WIND DEVELOPING MAINLY IN THE
RKS-CPR CORRIDOR...AS WELL AS JACKSON HOLE. THE BREEZY WINDS COULD
MIX DOWN INTO THE WIND RIVER BASIN AFTER 21Z. THE WINDS WILL THEN
SUBSIDE BETWEEN 01Z AND 03Z WEDNESDAY.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER
NOON ON TUESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...WM
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER













000
FXUS65 KRIW 012013
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITING EAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RIDGING
TAKES HOLD. DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
SURFACE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS. WARING WILL RESULT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THRU WED NIGHT...PROBABLY THE SIGNIFICANT WX PARAMETERS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ARE DIRECTLY AS RESULT OF UPR ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
TO TRANSITION TO STRONG SW FLOW WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...RAPID
DRYING NEAR SFC OCCURS AS DEEPENING LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN WY ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRAD/FRONTOGENESIS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE NW CONUS UPR LVL TROF. ADDITIONALLY
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...UPR LVL WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE DAY WED AS JET LVL WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KTS AHEAD OF THIS TROF. THIS SITUATION ALONG
WITH SFC TO H5 LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 DEG
C/KM...ALBEIT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH STILL BE MORE THAN
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE INCREASED UPR LVL FLOW
AND REINFORCE THE P GRAD INDUCED WINDS AT THE SFC. ATTM...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER
ELEMENTS LOOK TO EASILY EXCEED MIN CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS >= 25 KTS AND RH<= 15
PERCENT...SO LOOKING TO ADD FIRE WX ZONES 279 280 283 AND 289 INTO
WATCH/WARNING. THANKFULLY THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED
AS THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SWEEPS THRU THE FA FROM N TO
S...ELIMINATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ITS UPR
LVL COUSIN...AND NO TIME TO RELOAD MOISTURE...VERY LITTLE PRECIP
WILL HAVE A CHC TO FALL AND WHAT LITTLE DOES WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH THE REST/END OF THE FORECAST...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND
LIKELY THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER REACHES WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ONLY GET INTO THE UPR
30S TO LOWER 40S.

OTHERWISE...LR MDLS ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH HOW TO TREAT THE
WRN CONUS TROF THRU THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...STARTING ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THERE ARE COMMONALITIES THRU THE EXTENDED WHICH HAVE THE MOST
MERIT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...RELATIVELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE CONTACT WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FA WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EVEN
WITH PERIODS OF UPR LVL INSTABILITY AND A BRUSH WITH ANOTHER (BACK
DOOR THIS TIME) FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND ANOTHER
WEAKER ONE NEXT MONDAY...HIGHER PRECIP PROBS AND QPF WILL LIKELY STAY
NEARER THE SRN OR SERN ZONES...CLOSER TO A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
AND FORCING. HAVE TWEAKED FCST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS ...WILL LINGER OVER BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES 00Z-03Z.  W-NW WIND
AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SKC FOR TUE WITH WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER
NOON ON TUESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER









000
FXUS65 KRIW 012013
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
213 PM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

UPPER LOW QUICKLY EXITING EAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS WILL KEEP A
FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS EARLY THIS EVENING THEN RIDGING
TAKES HOLD. DRY WEST FLOW WILL DOMINATE LATER TONIGHT AND TUESDAY
WITH INCREASING WINDS TUESDAY AS STRONGER WINDS ALOFT MIX TO
SURFACE CENTRAL AND SOUTH AREAS. WARING WILL RESULT.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

THRU WED NIGHT...PROBABLY THE SIGNIFICANT WX PARAMETERS OF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD ARE DIRECTLY AS RESULT OF UPR ZONAL FLOW BEGINNING
TO TRANSITION TO STRONG SW FLOW WHILE AT THE SAME TIME...RAPID
DRYING NEAR SFC OCCURS AS DEEPENING LEE SIDE LOW DEVELOPS ACROSS
ERN WY ALONG WITH A TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRAD/FRONTOGENESIS TO THE
WEST/NORTHWEST. THIS IS DIRECTLY RELATED TO THE INFLUENCE OF THE
APPROACH OF YET ANOTHER LARGE NW CONUS UPR LVL TROF. ADDITIONALLY
AND ASSOCIATED WITH THIS DISTURBANCE...UPR LVL WIND SPEEDS WILL
INCREASE DRAMATICALLY THRU THE DAY WED AS JET LVL WINDS RANGE
BETWEEN 80 AND 100 KTS AHEAD OF THIS TROF. THIS SITUATION ALONG
WITH SFC TO H5 LAPSE RATES RANGING BETWEEN 9 AND 11 DEG
C/KM...ALBEIT NEAR DRY ADIABATIC...WITH STILL BE MORE THAN
UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO BRING DOWN SOME OF THE INCREASED UPR LVL FLOW
AND REINFORCE THE P GRAD INDUCED WINDS AT THE SFC. ATTM...WINDS
LOOK TO REMAIN BELOW HIGH WIND WARNING...HOWEVER FIRE DANGER
ELEMENTS LOOK TO EASILY EXCEED MIN CRITERIA FOR RED FLAG
CONDITIONS WED AFTERNOON...WIND GUSTS >= 25 KTS AND RH<= 15
PERCENT...SO LOOKING TO ADD FIRE WX ZONES 279 280 283 AND 289 INTO
WATCH/WARNING. THANKFULLY THESE CONDITIONS LOOK TO BE SHORT-LIVED
AS THE FRONT MENTIONED ABOVE SWEEPS THRU THE FA FROM N TO
S...ELIMINATING RED FLAG CONDITIONS THURSDAY. ALSO...WITH VERY DRY
AIR IN PLACE FOR MOST OF THE CWA AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND ITS UPR
LVL COUSIN...AND NO TIME TO RELOAD MOISTURE...VERY LITTLE PRECIP
WILL HAVE A CHC TO FALL AND WHAT LITTLE DOES WILL HAVE TO TAKE
ADVANTAGE OF ELEVATION GAINS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS.

THROUGH THE REST/END OF THE FORECAST...INASMUCH AS WED WILL BE THE
WARMEST DAY OF THE EXTENDED...THURSDAY WILL BE POST FRONTAL AND
LIKELY THE COOLEST WITH HIGHS STRUGGLING TO GET OUT OF THE 60S
ACROSS THE LOWER REACHES WHILE THE MOUNTAINS ONLY GET INTO THE UPR
30S TO LOWER 40S.

OTHERWISE...LR MDLS ARE STRUGGLING SOMEWHAT WITH HOW TO TREAT THE
WRN CONUS TROF THRU THE ENTIRE EXTENDED...STARTING ON FRIDAY.
HOWEVER THERE ARE COMMONALITIES THRU THE EXTENDED WHICH HAVE THE MOST
MERIT WITH RESPECT TO THE FORECAST. OVERALL...RELATIVELY DRY
EXTENDED FORECAST AS WE CONTINUE TO LOSE CONTACT WITH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN FA WHEN COMPARED TO THE PAST FEW WEEKS. EVEN
WITH PERIODS OF UPR LVL INSTABILITY AND A BRUSH WITH ANOTHER (BACK
DOOR THIS TIME) FRONT NEAR THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...AND ANOTHER
WEAKER ONE NEXT MONDAY...HIGHER PRECIP PROBS AND QPF WILL LIKELY STAY
NEARER THE SRN OR SERN ZONES...CLOSER TO A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
AND FORCING. HAVE TWEAKED FCST TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR
CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA AND ISOLATED TSRA WITH LOCAL MTN OBSCURATIONS IN
BIG HORN MOUNTAINS ...WILL LINGER OVER BIG HORN MOUNTAINS AND
EASTERN JOHNSON AND NORTHERN NATRONA COUNTIES 00Z-03Z.  W-NW WIND
AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL TONIGHT WITH SKC FOR TUE WITH WEST
SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 25 KTS GUSTING TO 35 KTS SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL AREAS.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

DRY WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHWEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND REMAIN THROUGH WEDNESDAY
EVENING. VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF WYOMING AFTER
NOON ON TUESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT TUESDAY EVENING.
THE VERY LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY AND STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL
REDEVELOP AFTER NOON ON WEDNESDAY CONTINUING UNTIL AROUND 8 PM MDT
WEDNESDAY EVENING. RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT
TUESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR FIRE WEATHER ZONES
279...280... 283 AND 289. RED FLAG WARNING AGAIN IN EFFECT FROM
NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY FOR WIND AND LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...283 AND 289.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT TUESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM NOON TO 8 PM MDT WEDNESDAY
WYZ279-280-283-289.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...C.BAKER
LONG TERM...BRAUN
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...C.BAKER










000
FXUS65 KRIW 011630
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1030 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TODAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SHEAR WILL BE
DECENT AROUND A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH FLASHY GRASSY
FUELS.

WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL COOLER
AND TAKES THE FRONT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS
COOLING WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MADE SOME HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS TO GO COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NW WY WITH LESS COOLING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL A BIT MESSY AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THURS PM AND EVE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MILD WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AS THE FRONT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AGAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DRIER THAN THE GFS BOTH DAYS AS IT PUSHES THE
MOISTURE TO MAINLY SOUTHERN WY. NOT SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN SO WENT
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS. NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRIER BUT ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PER DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN
OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING FROM
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH OF KCOD-KBYG LINE
18Z-00Z. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN
RANGE AND EASTWARD EARLY EVENING.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY
SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING
TO 20 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH...POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS RAWLINS
DISPATCH AND PORTIONS OF CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 011630
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1030 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TODAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SHEAR WILL BE
DECENT AROUND A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH FLASHY GRASSY
FUELS.

WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL COOLER
AND TAKES THE FRONT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS
COOLING WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MADE SOME HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS TO GO COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NW WY WITH LESS COOLING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL A BIT MESSY AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THURS PM AND EVE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MILD WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AS THE FRONT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AGAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DRIER THAN THE GFS BOTH DAYS AS IT PUSHES THE
MOISTURE TO MAINLY SOUTHERN WY. NOT SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN SO WENT
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS. NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRIER BUT ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PER DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON. AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS
WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN
OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING FROM
YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH OF KCOD-KBYG LINE
18Z-00Z. MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN
RANGE AND EASTWARD EARLY EVENING.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY
SKC CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA
IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

NOTE...FAA INFORMS NWS THAT OBSERVATION FRO KCOD WILL BE UNAVAILABLE
UNTIL SOMETIME TUESDAY WHEN REPAIRS ARE EXPECTED.  TAF CONTINUED AS
VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED AT KCOD THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING
TO 20 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH...POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS RAWLINS
DISPATCH AND PORTIONS OF CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...C.BAKER
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 011012
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TODAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SHEAR WILL BE
DECENT AROUND A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH FLASHY GRASSY
FUELS.

WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL COOLER
AND TAKES THE FRONT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS
COOLING WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MADE SOME HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS TO GO COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NW WY WITH LESS COOLING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL A BIT MESSY AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THURS PM AND EVE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MILD WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AS THE FRONT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AGAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DRIER THAN THE GFS BOTH DAYS AS IT PUSHES THE
MOISTURE TO MAINLY SOUTHERN WY. NOT SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN SO WENT
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS. NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRIER BUT ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PER DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING
TO 20 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH...POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS RAWLINS
DISPATCH AND PORTIONS OF CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN








000
FXUS65 KRIW 011012
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
412 AM MDT MON SEP 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND STORMS MOVES
THROUGH TODAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING WEST TO EAST AS THE MAIN TROUGH
CONTINUES TO MOVE INTO THE PLAINS. A FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR
OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE
WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE MARGINAL BUT SHEAR WILL BE
DECENT AROUND A LEFTOVER BOUNDARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK TO NEAR 80 EAST OF THE DIVIDE. THERE
COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON TUESDAY...WHICH
COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS WITH FLASHY GRASSY
FUELS.

WEDNESDAY...SOME MODEL SOLUTIONS ARE ADVERTISING ANOTHER UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH WITH SHARP COLD FRONT AND BAROCLINIC ZONE DROPPING SOUTH INTO
MONTANA...AT THIS TIME IT LOOKS LIKE WE WOULD NOT SEE MUCH FROM THE
FRONT UNTIL LATE WITH NOT MUCH PRECIPITATION MAKING IT THIS FAR
SOUTH...BUT COOLER TEMPERATURES AND A WIND SHIFT TO THE NORTH IS
EXPECTED IF THIS SCENARIO ACTUALLY PLAYS OUT AS ADVERTISED.
INTRODUCED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS TO
ACCOUNT FOR THIS POSSIBILITY. OTHERWISE...THE WARMING TREND
CONTINUES ACROSS THE SOUTH WITH STEADY 20 TO 30 KNOT SOUTHWESTERLIES
AND CONTINUED FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS AS MIN RHS ARE EXPECTED TO DROP
INTO THE TEENS AGAIN ON WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE COLD FRONT
PUSHING SOUTH INTO CENTRAL WY THURSDAY. THE ECMWF IS STILL COOLER
AND TAKES THE FRONT WEST OF THE DIVIDE WHILE THE GFS HAS LESS
COOLING WEST OF THE DIVIDE. MADE SOME HIGH TEMP ADJUSTMENTS FROM
PREVIOUS FORECAST BUT OVERALL THE TREND IS TO GO COOLER EAST OF THE
DIVIDE AND NW WY WITH LESS COOLING IN THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THE
PRECIP CHANCE IS STILL A BIT MESSY AS THE 00Z MODELS ARE DRIER THAN
PREVIOUS RUNS. I WILL KEEP ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS THURS PM AND EVE.
FRIDAY LOOKS TO BE COOL EAST OF THE DIVIDE AND MILD WEST OF THE
DIVIDE AS THE FRONT SHOULD LIE ALONG THE DIVIDE. AGAIN ISOLATED
SHOWERS AND STORMS FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WILL FEATURE ISOLATED AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND STORMS AS
MOISTURE WILL BE AROUND AS WELL AS THE LINGERING FRONTAL BOUNDARY.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS DRIER THAN THE GFS BOTH DAYS AS IT PUSHES THE
MOISTURE TO MAINLY SOUTHERN WY. NOT SURE THAT WILL HAPPEN SO WENT
WITH THE CONSISTENT GFS. NEXT MONDAY LOOKS DRIER BUT ISOLATED
MOUNTAIN SHOWERS/STORMS WILL STILL OCCUR OVER AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS. TEMPS WILL WARM A FEW DEGREES PER DAY SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW FOR ANOTHER DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. ACROSS THE SOUTH...WEST WINDS CONTINUE AT 15-25 MPH WITH
GUSTS TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH VALUES ONLY DROPPING
TO 20 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. MUCH DRIER AND WARMER ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY WITH THE WINDS GUSTING OVER 30 MPH EACH AFTERNOON ACROSS
THE SOUTH...POTENTIALLY INCREASING FIRE DANGER ACROSS RAWLINS
DISPATCH AND PORTIONS OF CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 010556 RRA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN











000
FXUS65 KRIW 010556 RRA
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 010556
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN










000
FXUS65 KRIW 010556
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1152 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY (ISSUED AT 300 PM MDT)

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

A LAST IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES IN NW FLOW WILL RACE
SE INTO NW WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS LATE THIS
AFTERNOON.   AREAS OF MVFR/IFR CIGS WITH SCT -SHRA...SNOW LEVELS
NEAR 9.5KFT WITH FRQT MTN OBSCURATIONS ...WILL SPREAD ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING FROM YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO A VCNTY AND NORTH
OF KCOD-KBYG LINE 09Z-15Z.  MOST OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL PUSH FROM
VCNTY OF THE BIGHORN RANGE AND EASTWARD BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  SOME OF
THIS SHOWER ACTIVITY MAY REACH AS FAR AS KCPR IN THE LATE MORNING
AND AFTERNOON.  W-NW WIND AT 15-25KT AND MAINLY SKC CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA IN THE AFTERNOON.

SKC CONDITIONS WITH DIMINISHING WIND...PATCHY FOG IN THE WESTERN
VALLEYS...WILL PREVAIL MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN









000
FXUS65 KRIW 312100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KCOD WITH MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MONDAY...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH 03Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED IN SHOWERS. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO VCNTY COD-BYG AND NORTH
WILL REMAIN MOST ACTIVE AND MOST LIABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9-10.5KFT ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE OTHER AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COVERAGE WILL OCCUR FROM VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH THE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WHERE BETTER RAINS
HAVE FALLEN ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS NEAR AND NORTH OF KJAC AFTER 10Z MONDAY. KCOD
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME VIS REDUCTION DUE TO MIST/FOG AS
MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE AREA
OVER A LONGER PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN






000
FXUS65 KRIW 312100
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
300 PM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

EXPANDING UPR LVL TROF ACROSS THE CONUS W OF THE MISSISSIPPI...W/
BASE OF TROF SWINGING EWD ACROSS WY TODAY. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW TROF
MOVING THRU THE CNTRL FA INTO THE ERN PORTIONS OF THE STATE THIS
AFTERNOON. ANOTHER EMBEDDED SW LIES IN WAIT UPSTREAM JUST OFF THE
COAST OF OR/WA...AND WILL RACE INTO WRN/NWRN WY BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THE SFC...GENERAL HIGH P TO THE W OF THE STATE...LOW P E WITH
FRONT/BOUNDARY BISECTING THE STATE FROM E TO SW CUTTING FROM NRN
NATRONA COUNTY...TO NRN SWEETWATER COUNTY AND W INTO SRN LINCOLN
COUNTY.

TODAY... OVERALL...MUCH COOLER CONDITIONS FROM FRONTAL
PASSAGE AND/OR SIGNIFICANT UPR LVL TEMP DROP AND CLOUD COVER.
CONTINUED  RELATIVELY STRONG GUSTY W TO WSW WINDS ACROSS THE SRN FA
SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY MENTIONED ABOVE...WITH GUSTY N TO NW
WINDS BEHIND THE FRONT. ANOTHER WEAKER FRONT LOOK TO BE LAYING
ACROSS MT AND WILL ENTER THE NRN AND ERN PORTION OF THE FA ON
MONDAY. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDER  ARE
MAKING THEIR WAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND EASTERN WY THIS
AFTERNOON...AND WILL CONTINUE AN EWD TRACK...DECREASING FROM W TO E
INTO THE EVENING. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS
WILL BE MOST PROBABLE ERN FREMONT AND ACROSS NATRONA COUNTIES
NEAR/ALONG FRONT/BOUNDARY. CAPE AND SHEAR IN THIS AREA ARE 500-700
J/KG AND 25-30 KTS RESPECTIVELY...JUST ENOUGH TO WEAKLY ORGANIZE A
STORM OR TWO.

TONIGHT AND MONDAY...MAIN TROF PASSES E AND INTO THE GREAT PLAINS...UPR
LVL NW FLOW CONTINUES...AND THE OR/WA DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO HEAD
THIS WAY THRU THE BACKSIDE OF THE LW TROF...ARRIVING NEAR THE WRN
BORDER BETWEEN 06 AND 09Z...THEN TRANSLATING ACROSS THE FA QUICKLY
BY EARLY AFTERNOON.  THIS WILL KEEP A NEARLY CONTINUAL CHC FOR SHRA
GOING ACROSS THE NW FA THROUGH AT LEAST MID TO LATE MORNING
MONDAY...AND ACROSS THE NRN/NERN FA INTO THE AFTERNOON. WHILE THIS
UPR LVL ENERGY WILL EXTEND WELL SOUTH AND OVR MOST OF THE
CWA...RAPID DRYING OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE PASSAGE
OF THE MAIN TROF AXIS TONIGHT AND THROUGH MONDAY MORNING FROM W TO
E...AND THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF MOISTURE TO ACT ON. A
FEW STRONGER STORMS MAY OCCUR OVR JOHNSON COUNTY BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WHERE SOME USEFUL MOISTURE WILL STILL BE LEFTOVER...CAPE WILL BE
MARGINAL AND SHEAR WILL BE MAXIMIZED ALONG AND NORTH OF A
CLIPPER-LIKE BOUNDARY/FRONT. SNOWFALL WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN ACROSS
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERAL 1 INCH ACCUMULATIONS ABOVE
9500 FEET...AND PERHAPS A FEW AREAS ABOVE 10500 FEET RECEIVING UP TO
3 INCHES. NOT EXPECTING MUCH TO STICK TO ANY ASPHALT ROADWAYS
HOWEVER.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY

MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH CONTINUE TO MOVE EAST...HIGH PRESSURE
RIDGING WILL OCCUR OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST.  THE MAIN TREND WILL
BE FOR DRYING WITH BREEZY TO WINDY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE SOUTH INTO
CENTRAL AREAS.

TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT DRY HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO DOMINATE
THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA WITH INCREASING WEST TO SOUTHWEST WINDS
CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH GENERAL WARMING. TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM.

WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT  SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO
MOVE UP FROM THE GREAT BASIN IN THE AFTERNOON...OTHERWISE THE DRY
HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER WITH
CONTINUED SOUTHWEST WINDS ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTH WITH THE
WARMING TREND CONTINUING.

THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT  HIGH PRESSURE WILL SHIFT EAST WITH
INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT BRINGING SOME PACIFIC MOISTURE ALOFT
OVER THE AREA.  SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON...MOST NUMEROUS OVER THE WESTERN AND
CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.  INCREASED CLOUD COVER  AND A COLD FRONT MOVING
SOUTH FROM MONTANA WILL BRING COOLING.  MODELS STRONGER WITH COLD
FRONT THAN YESTERDAY WITH MORE SIGNIFICANT COOLING.

FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT  SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE OVER THE AREA AS PACIFIC MOISTURE INCREASES IN
SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.  A COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE SOUTH
INTO SOUTHERN WYOMING.  AGAIN MODELS CONTINUE TO BE STRONGER WITH
THIS COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED COOLING BRINGING THE COLD AIR THROUGH
THE SOUTHWEST WHILE YESTERDAY THE FRONT DID NOT MIKE IT THROUGH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN IN
PLACE OVER THE AREA WITH A STREAM OF PACIFIC MOISTURE CONTINUING TO
ADVECT INTO THE AREA SUPPORTING SCATTERED SHOWERS AND SOME ISOLATED
AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS.  A FRONT IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN THROUGH
SOUTHERN WYOMING WITH CONTINUED COOLING.

SUNDAY SOME DRYING IS EXPECTED IN THE WEST WITH POSSIBLE WARMING.
OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST FOR SUNDAY AS THE SPREAD IN
SOLUTIONS WITH THE EXTENDED MODELS BECOMES MORE SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KCOD WITH MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE VIS
RESTRICTIONS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY WITH AN EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING
THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS EASTERN WYOMING THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...EXITING INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z MONDAY...AFFECTING
MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS CENTRAL...EASTERN AND
NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH 03Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE
FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST WHICH WILL REMAIN MORE
SCATTERED IN SHOWERS. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO VCNTY COD-BYG AND NORTH
WILL REMAIN MOST ACTIVE AND MOST LIABLE FOR MVFR CONDITIONS TO
PERSIST THROUGH 21Z. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9-10.5KFT ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE OTHER AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COVERAGE WILL OCCUR FROM VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KLND-KCPR LINE THROUGH THE THIS EVENING. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL
GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE EVENING. THERE WILL
BE A SLIGHT POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WHERE BETTER RAINS
HAVE FALLEN ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
LOCATIONS...SUCH AS NEAR AND NORTH OF KJAC AFTER 10Z MONDAY. KCOD
WILL BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE SOME VIS REDUCTION DUE TO MIST/FOG AS
MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE AREA
OVER A LONGER PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

FIRE DANGER WILL BE RELATIVELY LOW TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT. A LARGE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH
ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE MOVING THROUGH THE TROUGH AND ACROSS
WYOMING TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY TONIGHT. ANOTHER
DISTURBANCE WILL FOLLOW BETWEEN BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND EARLY AFTERNOON
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST ZONES. A SURFACE
FRONT/BOUNDARY LAYS ACROSS NATRONA COUNTY AND WEST INTO SOUTHERN
FREMONT COUNTY THEN NORTHERN SWEETWATER COUNTY. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL...EASTERN AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON BEFORE
BECOMING MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE
NORTHWEST WHICH WILL CONTINUE MORE SCATTERED. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER
BETWEEN 9-10KFT ACROSS THE NORTH. SOUTH OF THE FRONT/BOUNDARY
MENTIONED ABOVE...WEST TO WEST SOUTHWEST WINDS CONTINUE TODAY AT
15-25 MPH WITH GUSTS 35 TO 40 MPH POSSIBLE ALONG WITH MINIMUM RH
VALUES ONLY DROPPING TO 35 PERCENT AT THE LOW END. ISOLATED ERRATIC
OUTFLOW WIND GUSTS NEAR 45KTS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BRAUN
LONG TERM...C.BAKER
AVIATION...BRAUN
FIRE WEATHER...BRAUN







000
FXUS65 KRIW 311711
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1111 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING AS A DYNAMIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ABOVE 9KFT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH PERHAPS MORE OF AN EARLY SHOW OUT WEST GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH LATE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. SO A RATHER COMPLEX TROUGH WITH MANY
PIECES AND PARTS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NATRONA...EASTERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER
COUNTIES NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THERE WILL BE LESS CAPE AND
SHEAR TO WORK WITH TODAY SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
STORM OR TWO BY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE RAIN CHANCES...IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY AGAIN TODAY AS
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL SEND OUT
SOME DECENT OUTFLOWS...THOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.

LABOR DAY...THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS
WITH FLASHY GRASSY FUELS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY
TO WINDY AREAS AND A WARM DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW EAST INTO MONTANA. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER THE GFS MODEL.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING THIS PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY BUT MOVES
THE SYSTEM OUT FOR NEXT SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WY LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT LIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY PM
PER THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA
THURSDAY. THUS THE FORECAST DILEMMA FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. PLUS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPS ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPS THAN
THE GFS THURSDAY...AS WELL AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE BLENDED
THE FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
BETTER COOLING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SW FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE SEEMS TO COME FROM TWO SOURCES...ONE FROM THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH...THE OTHER FROM THE SW U.S. AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO (IN SOME CASES)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE PRECIP
CHANCE. OVERALL...A COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THOSE THREE DAYS. NEXT
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AND WARMER HIGHS MOST
PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

VFR WILL PREVAIL FOR MOST TERMINALS THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THE
EXCEPTIONS WILL BE KJAC THROUGH 22Z WITH PERIODS OF MVFR IN LOW CIGS
AND KCOD WITH MVFR IN LOW CIGS AND POSSIBLE VIS RESTRICTIONS
OCCASIONALLY THROUGH 16Z MONDAY. LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CONTINUES
TO EXPAND ACROSS THE COUNTRY TODAY WITH ANOTHER EMBEDDED DISTURBANCE
MOVING ACROSS WYOMING THIS TODAY...THEN INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z
MONDAY...WITH ANOTHER TO FOLLOW BETWEEN 06Z AND 18Z
MONDAY...AFFECTING MAINLY THE NORTHERN FORECAST AREA. ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WYOMING THROUGH 00Z BEFORE BECOMING MORE
ISOLATED IN NATURE FOR MOST LOCATIONS EXCEPT FOR THE NORTHWEST WHICH
WILL REMAIN MORE SCATTERED. YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO VCNTY
COD-BYG AND NORTH WILL REMAIN MOST ACTIVE AND MOST LIABLE FOR MVFR
CONDITIONS TO PERSIST. SNOW LEVELS WILL HOVER BETWEEN 9-10KFT IN
ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS AND AREAS OF MVFR TO
OCCASIONAL IFR CONDITIONS. THE OTHER AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED FROM VCNTY AND NORTH OF A
KJAC-KRIW-KCPR LINE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.
HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL GENERALLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT
POSSIBILITY FOR PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING WHERE BETTER RAINS HAVE FALLEN
ESPECIALLY IN WESTERN/NORTHWESTERN MOUNTAIN/VALLEY LOCATIONS...SUCH
AS NEAR KJAC AFTER 10Z MONDAY. KCOD MAY BE THE MOST LIKELY TO SEE
SOME VIS REDUCTION DUE TO MIST/FOG AS MORE PERSISTENT PRECIPITATION
WILL CONTINUE IN AND AROUND THE AREA OVER A LONGER PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 9KFT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. IT WILL BE WINDY AGAIN TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS
GUSTY AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER AND HUMIDITY HIGHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW. IT
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY WITH A STEADY WESTERLY WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
RAWLINS AND CASPER DISPATCH WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLY
RISING A BIT IF THE RH CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...JB
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN












000
FXUS65 KRIW 310917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 AM MDT SUN AUG 31 2014

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT

SHOWERS AND STORMS ONGOING AS A DYNAMIC TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE
THROUGH THE REGION. A COLD FRONT MOVED THROUGH ON SATURDAY WITH
ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH FROM NORTHWEST TO
SOUTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS...IT WILL BE COLD ENOUGH FOR SNOW
ABOVE 9KFT BEHIND THIS FRONT ESPECIALLY DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
ELSEWHERE...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH EMBEDDED THUNDER THROUGHOUT
THE DAY WITH PERHAPS MORE OF AN EARLY SHOW OUT WEST GIVEN THE
EXPECTED TIMING OF THE TROUGH...HOWEVER THERE WILL BE ANOTHER WAVE
MOVING THROUGH LATE...BRINGING INCREASED SHOWER ACTIVITY BACK INTO
THE NORTHWEST AFTER SUNSET. SO A RATHER COMPLEX TROUGH WITH MANY
PIECES AND PARTS STILL EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE REGION THROUGH
TONIGHT. STRONGER STORMS WITH SMALL HAIL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE
MOST PROBABLE ACROSS NATRONA...EASTERN FREMONT AND SWEETWATER
COUNTIES NEAR A FRONTAL BOUNDARY BUT THERE WILL BE LESS CAPE AND
SHEAR TO WORK WITH TODAY SO NO SEVERE STORMS ARE EXPECTED.
OTHERWISE...MOST IF NOT ALL OF THE FORECAST AREA SHOULD SEE ANOTHER
STORM OR TWO BY TONIGHT.

ASIDE FROM THE RAIN CHANCES...IT WILL BE RATHER WINDY AGAIN TODAY AS
THE GRADIENT REMAINS TIGHT AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL STILL SEND OUT
SOME DECENT OUTFLOWS...THOUGH THEY ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE AS STRONG
AS THEY WERE ON SATURDAY.

LABOR DAY...THE LAST SHORT WAVE THAT COULD STIR UP MORE SHOWERS AND
STORMS MOVES THROUGH EARLY IN THE DAY WITH EVENTUAL CLEARING AS THE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST. THERE WILL ALSO BE SOME CONTINUED
BREEZY CONDITIONS AS THE SUBSIDENT SIDE OF THE TROUGH SWINGS THROUGH
AND FLOW SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST.

MUCH DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON TUESDAY AS FLOW TURNS MORE ZONAL. HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE SOUTH WILL ALSO BRING SOME WARMER AIR
WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING BACK INTO THE 80S EAST OF THE DIVIDE.
THERE COULD BE SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
TUESDAY...WHICH COULD LEAD TO SOME FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS IN AREAS
WITH FLASHY GRASSY FUELS.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY

WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY FOR MOST OF THE REGION. ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS FOR THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. BREEZY
TO WINDY AREAS AND A WARM DAY. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER
THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST WED NIGHT AS A TROUGH DEVELOPS OVER THE
PACIFIC NW EAST INTO MONTANA. THIS ELONGATED TROUGH WILL BE THE
FOCUS OF THE WEATHER THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY PER THE GFS MODEL.
THE ECMWF IS ALSO SHOWING THIS PATTERN THROUGH SATURDAY BUT MOVES
THE SYSTEM OUT FOR NEXT SUNDAY. A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH INTO
NORTHERN WY LATE WED NIGHT AND THEN CONTINUES TO PUSH SOUTH ON
THURSDAY. THE FRONT LIES ALONG THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE THURSDAY PM
PER THE GFS WHILE THE ECMWF MOVES IT THROUGH THE WHOLE AREA
THURSDAY. THUS THE FORECAST DILEMMA FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY. PLUS
THE ECMWF IS COLDER WITH TEMPS ALOFT AND NEAR SURFACE TEMPS THAN
THE GFS THURSDAY...AS WELL AS FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. HAVE BLENDED
THE FORECAST HIGHS AND LOWS THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY KEEPING THE
BETTER COOLING EAST OF THE DIVIDE. MOISTURE IS FORECAST TO
INCREASE OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY IN A SW FLOW
ALOFT. MOISTURE SEEMS TO COME FROM TWO SOURCES...ONE FROM THE
TROUGH TO THE NORTH...THE OTHER FROM THE SW U.S. AROUND THE UPPER
HIGH. FOR NOW HAVE THE TYPICAL ISOLATED TO (IN SOME CASES)
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS OVER THE REGION THURSDAY THROUGH
SATURDAY. THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL ALSO PLAY A ROLE IN THE PRECIP
CHANCE. OVERALL...A COMPLEX PATTERN FOR THOSE THREE DAYS. NEXT
SUNDAY LOOKS LIKE ISOLATED SHOWERS/STORMS AND WARMER HIGHS MOST
PLACES.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

THE SECOND PORTION OF AN UPPER TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS WESTERN
WYOMING THIS MORNING AND INTO THE HIGH PLAINS BY 00Z MONDAY.
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA AHEAD OF THE TROUGH.  THIS COVERAGE WILL BE MOST
NUMEROUS ACROSS THE NORTH...ACROSS YELLOWSTONE NATIONAL PARK TO
VCNTY COD-BYG AND NORTH.  SNOW LEVELS WILL ALSO LOWER TO 9-10KFT IN
THIS AREA BY SUNRISE THIS MORNING WITH FQT MTN OBSCURATIONS AND
AREAS OF MVFR CONDITIONS.  THE OTHER AREA OF MORE ORGANIZED
SHRA/ISOLD TSRA COVERAGE IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE SOUTH OR VCNTY AND
SOUTH OF A KRKS-KCPR LINE THROUGH THE MORNING.  CONDITIONS WILL
IMPROVE WEST TO EAST THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WITH PATCHY
FOG DEVELOPING WHERE BETTER RAINS HAVE FALLEN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS AND THE NORTHERN BASINS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF WETTING RAIN
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA AGAIN TODAY. A COLD FRONT
MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING WILL BRING ANOTHER CHANCE FOR SNOW
ABOVE 9KFT IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE
ACTIVITY FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING BEFORE
THE NEXT WAVE MOVES IN...HOWEVER THIS WAVE WILL BE LESS IMPACTFUL
WITH ONLY A FEW SHOWERS AND STORMS EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE. IT WILL BE WINDY AGAIN TODAY...THOUGH NOT AS
GUSTY AS SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL BE LOWER AND HUMIDITY HIGHER
TODAY WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER...SO FIRE DANGER WILL BE LOW. IT
WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT ON MONDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT
CONTINUED COOL AND WINDY. MUCH WARMER AND DRIER AIR MOVES IN ON
TUESDAY WITH A STEADY WESTERLY WIND OF 20 TO 30 MPH ACROSS MUCH OF
RAWLINS AND CASPER DISPATCH WITH FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS POSSIBLY
RISING A BIT IF THE RH CAN DROP LOW ENOUGH.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...AEM
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN









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