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000
FXUS65 KRIW 300917
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 AM MDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

HOT AND DRY THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION
EXPECTED. AS THE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY PERSIST...FIRE DANGER WILL
GROW. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT THERE WILL NOT BE MUCH WIND TO SPEAK
OF. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME GUSTY WIND ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR
TOMORROW AS THUNDERSTORMS EAST OF THE AREA COLLAPSE BUT THAT IS A
BIT OF A REACH.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY

THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS DIFFER SOMEWHAT IN THE EXTENDED. THOSE
DIFFERENCES WOULD HAVE A MODERATE IMPACT ON THE REGION COME MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT AND THEN AGAIN NEXT THURSDAY. THE GFS KEEPS
SUNDAY VERY WARM TO HOT WITH VERY ISOLATED COVERAGE OF STORMS IN
THE MOUNTAINS AND EXTREME SW SWEETWATER COUNTY WHERE A STORM OR
TWO OVER THE UINTA MOUNTAINS MAY DRIFT NORTHEAST OVER THAT AREA.
THE ECMWF MODEL IS ON THE SAME PAGE AS THE GFS SUNDAY. FROM MONDAY
THROUGH NEXT THURSDAY THE GFS MODEL HAS A SOUTHWEST FLOW OVER THE
REGION. IN THIS FLOW...WEAK WEATHER DISTURBANCES PASS THROUGH FROM
TIME TO TIME. GFS MODEL DOES SHOW A GRADUAL INCREASE IN MID LEVEL
MOISTURE WHICH WOULD LEAD TO MORE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON AND
NIGHTTIME SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH EACH PASSING DAY. THE ECMWF
MODEL IS STILL ROTATING A FAIRLY STRONG WEATHER SYSTEM/EASTERLY
WAVE AROUND THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER HIGH MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM
IMPACTS MUCH OF THE AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT.
IT WOULD BRING MORE CLOUDS...COOLER TEMPS AND A MUCH BETTER CHANCE
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE CANADIAN MODEL IS NOT AS STRONG WITH
THIS SYSTEM AND SPLITS IT AS IT MOVES TOWARD WY MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUE. CERTAINLY IT IS THE TIME OF YEAR TO BE LOOKING FOR WEATHER
SYSTEMS ROTATING AROUND THE PREDOMINATE UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE
DOME. THE ECMWF MODEL HAS A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS ON WED
AND THEN AGAIN NEXT THURS WITH ANOTHER FAIRLY DECENT WEATHER
SYSTEM CROSSING THE STATE. IT SEEMS PRUDENT AT THIS TIME TO KEEP
AN EYE ON THIS POTENTIAL WEATHER SYSTEM IN THE COMING DAYS AND
THEN ADJUST FORECAST FOR HIGHER PRECIP CHANCE. THIS MEANS I WILL
LEAN WITH THE GFS MODEL AND KEEP ISOLATED TO WIDELY SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN THE FORECAST MON THROUGH NEXT THURS. STRONG
WIND GUSTS WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE BIGGEST THREAT FROM STORMS.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN COULD BE A THREAT NEXT WED AND THURS AS THE
POTENTIAL FOR HIGHER DEWPOINTS LOOM. AS FOR HIGH TEMPS...THE GFS
KEEPS THE HEAT TURNED UP WITH 80S AND 90S MON THROUGH NEXT THURS.
THE ECMWF HAS 70S AND 80S HIGHS MONDAY THROUGH NEXT THURS. I HAVE
CHOSEN THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR NOW. THE FINAL CONCERN FOR
NEXT WEEK WOULD BE THE FIRE THREAT FROM LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS THAT HAVE PLENTY OF CURED BROWN GRASS TO IGNITE.
STAY TUNED.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE AN UNDER 10 KNOTS
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH THE EXCEPTION OF AREAS WITH NORMAL DIURNAL
VARIATIONS LIKE KJAC AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE SINGLE
DIGITS TO LOW TEENS THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE
WEST. RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL HAVE A HARD TIME RECOVERING
OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY AT MID SLOPE WHERE RHS MAY NOT RISE OUT OF
THE MID 20S...ESPECIALLY IN THE CENTRAL WYOMING RANGES. DRY
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST SATURDAY. ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AR
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 300414
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1014 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...SENDING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE DOES EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CU FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
TODAY...BUT LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS REMAIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
MORNING RHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH MAX RH VALUES IN THE
30S TO 50S EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH 50S TO LOW 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING VERY DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...PUTTING HIGH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON CU COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED
CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS
MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST
OF OUR AREA. GRADUALLY WITH TIME...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH AIDING IN AT LEAST A FEW
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COOL FRONT NEAR IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY MAY HELP A FEW STORMS
TO FORM/MOVE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM THE S AND SW INTO OUR WEST AND NORTH AIDING
IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WILL ALSO LIKELY
MOVE OFF THE UINTAS INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD
HIGH BASED STORM ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RH`S. ANY
TSTMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH HIGH BASES AND BIG TEMP/DP SPREADS. NEW ECMWF DEVELOPS A
POSSIBLE ELY WAVE OVER AZ SATURDAY EVENING THAT GRADUALLY ROTATES
AROUND THE MONSOONAL HIGH AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WYO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GEM ALSO HAS
A DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY OVER AZ AND GENERALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER A DISTURBANCE
WILL FORM IN THE DESERT SW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH SO STICKING
WITH CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW AS IT
IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO WATCH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
MONSOONAL HIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE AN UNDER 10 KNTOS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH VALUES IN THE 30-50
SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND 50S TO LOW 70S
WEST...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 300414
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1014 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...SENDING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE DOES EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CU FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
TODAY...BUT LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS REMAIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
MORNING RHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH MAX RH VALUES IN THE
30S TO 50S EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH 50S TO LOW 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING VERY DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...PUTTING HIGH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON CU COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED
CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS
MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST
OF OUR AREA. GRADUALLY WITH TIME...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH AIDING IN AT LEAST A FEW
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COOL FRONT NEAR IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY MAY HELP A FEW STORMS
TO FORM/MOVE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM THE S AND SW INTO OUR WEST AND NORTH AIDING
IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WILL ALSO LIKELY
MOVE OFF THE UINTAS INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD
HIGH BASED STORM ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RH`S. ANY
TSTMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH HIGH BASES AND BIG TEMP/DP SPREADS. NEW ECMWF DEVELOPS A
POSSIBLE ELY WAVE OVER AZ SATURDAY EVENING THAT GRADUALLY ROTATES
AROUND THE MONSOONAL HIGH AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WYO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GEM ALSO HAS
A DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY OVER AZ AND GENERALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER A DISTURBANCE
WILL FORM IN THE DESERT SW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH SO STICKING
WITH CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW AS IT
IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO WATCH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
MONSOONAL HIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS AFTER 18Z THURSDAY. WINDS
WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE AN UNDER 10 KNTOS
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH VALUES IN THE 30-50
SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND 50S TO LOW 70S
WEST...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 292117
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...SENDING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE DOES EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CU FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
TODAY...BUT LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS REMAIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
MORNING RHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH MAX RH VALUES IN THE
30S TO 50S EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH 50S TO LOW 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING VERY DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...PUTTING HIGH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON CU COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED
CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS
MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST
OF OUR AREA. GRADUALLY WITH TIME...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH AIDING IN AT LEAST A FEW
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COOL FRONT NEAR IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY MAY HELP A FEW STORMS
TO FORM/MOVE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM THE S AND SW INTO OUR WEST AND NORTH AIDING
IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WILL ALSO LIKELY
MOVE OFF THE UINTAS INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD
HIGH BASED STORM ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RH`S. ANY
TSTMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH HIGH BASES AND BIG TEMP/DP SPREADS. NEW ECMWF DEVELOPS A
POSSIBLE ELY WAVE OVER AZ SATURDAY EVENING THAT GRADUALLY ROTATES
AROUND THE MONSOONAL HIGH AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WYO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GEM ALSO HAS
A DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY OVER AZ AND GENERALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER A DISTURBANCE
WILL FORM IN THE DESERT SW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH SO STICKING
WITH CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW AS IT
IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO WATCH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
MONSOONAL HIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION FOR TONIGHT. A VIRTUAL COPY OF TODAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TOMORROW...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND A FEW MID
LEVEL CU POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH VALUES IN THE 30-50
SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND 50S TO LOW 70S
WEST...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 292117
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
317 PM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD ACROSS THE FOUR CORNERS REGION
TODAY...SENDING VERY DRY AIR ACROSS MUCH OF THE STATE AS EVIDENT
ON CURRENT WV IMAGERY. SOME LIMITED MOISTURE DOES EXIST ACROSS
NORTHERN WYOMING...HOWEVER...SUBSIDENCE FROM THE HIGH PRESSURE AND
THE LEFT ENTRANCE REGION OF THE JET OVERHEAD...HAS SUPPRESSED ANY
CU FROM FORMING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WINDS HAVE ALSO DIMINISHED
TODAY...BUT LOW RH VALUES IN THE TEENS REMAIN. EXPECT MAINLY CLEAR
SKIES...CONTINUED LIGHT WINDS...AND COOL TEMPS FOR TONIGHT.
MORNING RHS WILL STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH MAX RH VALUES IN THE
30S TO 50S EXPECTED SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH 50S TO LOW 70S WEST.

HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD FOR THURSDAY...KEEPING VERY DRY
AIR AND LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE REGION. MIN RH WILL REMAIN IN THE
LOW TEENS ACROSS MOST AREAS...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. TEMPERATURES
LOOK TO WARM A FEW MORE DEGREES FOR THURSDAY...PUTTING HIGH TEMPS
NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A FEW AFTERNOON CU COULD BE
POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH AND NORTHWEST TOMORROW...HOWEVER...NO
PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

VERY WARM TO HOT THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD WITH VERY LIMITED
CHANCES OF LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS BY THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

RIDGE BUILDS NW OVER THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS WITH A LITTLE HIGH PLAINS
MOISTURE LURKING IN SERN WYO THAT STILL LOOKS LIKE IT WILL STAY EAST
OF OUR AREA. GRADUALLY WITH TIME...WE SHOULD SEE SOME MID/HIGH LVL
MOISTURE ROTATING AROUND OUR 4-CORNERS HIGH AIDING IN AT LEAST A FEW
LATE DAY THUNDERSTORMS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE WEEKEND.
WEAK COOL FRONT NEAR IN OUR FAR NORTH SUNDAY MAY HELP A FEW STORMS
TO FORM/MOVE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS. LIMITED MOISTURE WILL
CONTINUE MOVING UP FROM THE S AND SW INTO OUR WEST AND NORTH AIDING
IN ISOLD TO WIDELY SCT TSTMS EARLY NEXT WEEK. A FEW WILL ALSO LIKELY
MOVE OFF THE UINTAS INTO SWEETWATER COUNTY. CAN`T RULE OUT AN ISOLD
HIGH BASED STORM ELSEWHERE EARLY NEXT WEEK BUT THE MAIN SENSIBLE
WEATHER WILL BE VERY WARM TO HOT CONDITIONS AND VERY LOW RH`S. ANY
TSTMS THAT DUE FORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG OUTFLOW
WINDS WITH HIGH BASES AND BIG TEMP/DP SPREADS. NEW ECMWF DEVELOPS A
POSSIBLE ELY WAVE OVER AZ SATURDAY EVENING THAT GRADUALLY ROTATES
AROUND THE MONSOONAL HIGH AND THEN NEWD INTO SWRN WYO DURING THE DAY
MONDAY AND ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA BY MONDAY NIGHT. GEM ALSO HAS
A DISTURBANCE THAT DEVELOPS ON SATURDAY OVER AZ AND GENERALLY MOVES
ACROSS COLORADO ON SUNDAY. HUGE DIFFERENCES ON SENSIBLE WEATHER
BETWEEN THESE SCENARIOS. CONFIDENCE LOW ON WHETHER A DISTURBANCE
WILL FORM IN THE DESERT SW AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH SO STICKING
WITH CONSISTENCY FOR NOW. WILL GIVE IT ANOTHER LOOK TOMORROW AS IT
IS THAT TIME OF THE YEAR TO WATCH DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE
MONSOONAL HIGH

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. A FEW CU WILL BE
POSSIBLE UNTIL SUNSET ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING TERMINALS THIS
EVENING. WINDS WILL ALSO REMAIN LIGHT AND GENERALLY VARIABLE IN
DIRECTION FOR TONIGHT. A VIRTUAL COPY OF TODAY WILL BE IN STORE FOR
TOMORROW...WITH GENERALLY LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS...AND A FEW MID
LEVEL CU POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN TERMINALS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE MAINLY CLEAR...WARMING...AND
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS
ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND...WITH ONLY A FEW LIGHT BREEZES
POSSIBLE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS CENTRAL
WYOMING. MINIMUM RH VALUES ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN THE LOW TEENS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE
DIVIDE...WITH UPPER TEENS TO 20S ACROSS THE WEST. RH VALUES IN THE
MORNING WILL ALSO STRUGGLE TO REBOUND...WITH VALUES IN THE 30-50
SOUTH AND ACROSS AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND 50S TO LOW 70S
WEST...THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM CHANCES
WILL RETURN SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN
AND WESTERN PORTIONS.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290830
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
230 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH THE
AREA OF LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
TODAY...FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
STATE EXPECTING SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BUT THE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BAKE THE
VEGETATION BENEATH INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS THIS WARM AND DRY
TREND CONTINUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR DRAWS IN
SOME MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT POPS WERE KEPT QUIET DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...BECOMING THE DOMINANT...PERSISTENT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST.  WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH W-
NW FLOW ALOFT AND H5 HEIGHTS IN THE 590-594DM RANGE...H7 TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND 18C IN THE SW TO 15C IN THE NE.  THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASINS.. WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS.   SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE `RING OF FIRE` ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.   FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS AND NEW WILDFIRE STARTS IN THIS SCENARIO.   UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE SHORTWAVES COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
THIS MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH MODELS PROGRESSION OF
LARGE-SCALE FLOW 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK... HOWEVER...MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PLAINS...INCREASING INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR A HAINES OF 6
THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EFFICIENT DRYING PERIOD FOR FUELS...SO WHEN
THIS RIDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY COULD BE PRETTY
VIGOROUS. LOOKING WAY OUT IN THE MODELS...THERE COULD BE A FEW
WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH THE FIRST TO BREAK IT DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 290830
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
230 AM MDT WED JUL 29 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND BEGINS TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE REGION. EXPECT TO GAIN A FEW DEGREES EACH DAY WITH THE
AREA OF LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING FROM THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
TODAY...FURTHER NORTH ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH MUCH OF THE
STATE EXPECTING SINGLE DIGIT RELATIVE HUMIDITIES BY THE END OF THE
WEEK. THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT WINDS WILL BE RELATIVELY LIGHT
UNDERNEATH THE RIDGE BUT THE HEAT AND LOW HUMIDITY WILL BAKE THE
VEGETATION BENEATH INCREASING FIRE DANGER AS THIS WARM AND DRY
TREND CONTINUES. THERE IS A REMOTE CHANCE OF SOME THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY ON FRIDAY AS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG THE I25 CORRIDOR DRAWS IN
SOME MEAGER MID LEVEL MOISTURE...BUT POPS WERE KEPT QUIET DUE TO
THE LOW PROBABILITY OF ENOUGH MOISTURE TO KICK OFF CONVECTION.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA WILL BRING ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.  DRY WEATHER WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA SATURDAY.
MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO A LARGE PORTION OF THE AREA BY MONDAY.

DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS REMAIN IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH
STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE SETTING UP NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...BECOMING THE DOMINANT...PERSISTENT WEATHER FEATURE THROUGH
THE FIRST FEW DAYS OF AUGUST.  WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING WILL BE
POSITIONED SLIGHTLY DOWNSTREAM OF RIDGE AXIS THROUGH TUESDAY WITH W-
NW FLOW ALOFT AND H5 HEIGHTS IN THE 590-594DM RANGE...H7 TEMPS
AVERAGING AROUND 18C IN THE SW TO 15C IN THE NE.  THIS WILL BRING
HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL
BASINS.. WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE WESTERN VALLEYS.   SOME MID AND HIGH
LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO DRIFT AROUND THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS UPPER HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND...BRINGING
POSSIBLY A FEW STORMS TO THE NW MTNS ON SATURDAY...WITH ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA ON SUNDAY.  MOST
OF THE AREA WILL BE UNDER THE `RING OF FIRE` ON THE PERIPHERY OF THE
UPPER HIGH MONDAY AND TUESDAY.  LOWER LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN DRY SO ANY THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
DRY...PRODUCING MORE WIND THAN RAIN.   FUELS WILL CONTINUE TO DRY
OUT OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS...AND WILL BE PRIMED FOR LIGHTNING
IGNITIONS AND NEW WILDFIRE STARTS IN THIS SCENARIO.   UPPER RIDGE
AXIS IS FORECAST TO TRANSLATE THE AREA ON WEDNESDAY BRINGING A SW
FLOW ACROSS THE AREA AND MORE SHORTWAVES COMING IN OFF THE PACIFIC.
THIS MAY BRING BETTER CHANCES OF AFTN/EVE THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTHWEST...THOUGH CONFIDENCE IS LOW WITH MODELS PROGRESSION OF
LARGE-SCALE FLOW 8 DAYS OUT.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL BE
LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS
KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
LIGHT WINDS WILL BE FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE
WEEK... HOWEVER...MIN RHS WILL BE IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO MID
TEENS EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND
IN THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...HOWEVER A BRIEF PERIOD
OF UPSLOPE FLOW MAY BRING IN SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE
PLAINS...INCREASING INSTABILITY ON FRIDAY ENOUGH FOR A HAINES OF 6
THIS WILL BE A FAIRLY EFFICIENT DRYING PERIOD FOR FUELS...SO WHEN
THIS RIDGE FINALLY DOES BREAK DOWN FIRE ACTIVITY COULD BE PRETTY
VIGOROUS. LOOKING WAY OUT IN THE MODELS...THERE COULD BE A FEW
WAVES MOVING OVER THE RIDGE WITH THE FIRST TO BREAK IT DOWN
SIGNIFICANTLY ON MONDAY AFTERNOON...AT WHICH TIME DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND GUSTY WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290449
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1049 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290449
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1049 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 290449
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1049 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH ONLY A FEW FAIR
WEATHER CUMULUS EXPECTED. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT WITH MAINLY DIURNAL
VARIATIONS AT THE USUAL LOCATIONS SUCH AS KJAC...KPNA AND KBPI.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 282127
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
327 PM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY

WV SHOWING UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW...THAT BROUGHT
YESTERDAYS ACTIVE WEATHER...CURRENTLY ACROSS SOUTHERN
SASKATCHEWAN WILL PUSH EASTWARD INTO MANITOBA TONIGHT. THE
LINGERING PRESSURE GRADIENT FROM THIS SYSTEM HAS CAUSED
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH NOT AS BREEZY WINDS AS YESTERDAY...TO LINGER
THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON TODAY. EXPECT THESE WINDS TO DIMINISH
FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS AS THE TIGHT GRADIENT MOVES INTO THE DAKOTAS. SOME MOISTURE
WRAPPING AROUND THIS SYSTEM HAS ALLOWED DEVELOPMENT OF A FEW
CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN WY. GENERALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH CAN NOT RULE OUT A VERY
ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS NW WYOMING THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
SKIES WILL CLEAR TONIGHT...AND WITH DIMINISHING WINDS...COOL TEMPS
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE FOUND. PORTIONS OF WESTERN WYOMING MAY ONCE
AGAIN SEE LOW TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BELOW FREEZING...WITH NEAR
FREEZING TEMPS POSSIBLY GETTING INTO THE WESTERN VALLEYS.

WEDNESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN AND
SEND VERY DRY WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE REGION. WINDS WILL REMAIN
LIGHT DURING THE DAY...HOWEVER...DRY AIR WILL REMAIN...WITH AFTERNOON
RH VALUES EXPECTED TO BE IN THE TEENS ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST
OF THE DIVIDE...WITH 20S IN THE WEST. WARMING TREND WILL BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER TEMPS WILL STILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL.
WITH DRY AIR OVERHEAD...NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED FOR
WEDNESDAY.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

QUIET SHORT TERM AS UPPER RIDGE AROUND THE 4-CORNERS REGION. MAIN
WEATHER WILL CONSIST OF A WARMING TREND WITH A VERY LOW AFTERNOON
RH. OVER THE WEEKEND...A LITTLE BIT OF MAINLY MID/HI LEVEL MOISTURE
AND WEAK DISTURBANCES ROTATE AROUND THIS HIGH INTO THE NORTH WITH A
FEW THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY STARTING TO FORM IN THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. EARLY NEXT WEEK...IT LOOKS LIKE A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE
ROTATES AROUND THE 4-CORNERS HIGH AND COMBINES WITH A POTENTIAL COOL
FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN INTO THE NRN ZONES. SO ISOLATED TSTMS AT LEAST
FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND DOWNWIND AREAS. A FEW WILL LIKELY TRACK
SE ONTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS BY EVENING. A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE
YET ON TUESDAY WILL PRODUCE A FEW MORE STORMS ACROSS MOST OF THE
AREA WITH THE SERN ZONES SEEING VERY LITTLE OR JUST A STRAY STORM OR
TWO. GUSTY WIND AND LIGHTNING WILL BE THE MAIN THREAT FROM THESE
STORMS WITH STILL LIMITED LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. BECOMING QUITE WARM TO
HOT THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH COOLING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...
ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE NORTH HALF.


&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW WILL DIMINISH FROM WEST TO EAST EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SOME LINGERING WIND GUSTS IN THE KCPR AREA OF
AROUND 2O KNOTS THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SCT CLOUDS ACROSS NORTHERN
WYOMING COULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...THEN
DIMINISH SHORTLY AFTER SUNSET THIS EVENING...OR BY 06Z WEDNESDAY.
AN ISOLATED SHOWER IS ALSO POSSIBLE ACROSS NW WYOMING EARLY THIS
EVENING...MAINLY WEST OF KCOD...AND THROUGH 03Z WEDNESDAY. SKIES
WILL CLEAR AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH
ONLY A FEW MID LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

BREEZY WINDS...CURRENTLY FOUND ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN
WYOMING...WILL BEGIN TO DIMINISH DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON AND
EARLY EVENING HOURS. WITH RH VALUES CURRENTLY IN THE LOW TO MID
TEENS...ELEVATED FIRE DANGER WILL CONTINUE UNTIL WINDS COMPLETELY
DIMINISH THIS EVENING. ANOTHER COOL...DRY...AND MAINLY CLEAR
NIGHT IS THEN EXPECTED. A WARMING TREND WILL THEN BEGIN
WEDNESDAY...AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. LIGHT WINDS WILL BE
FOUND THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...HOWEVER...VERY DRY AIR WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA...WITH MIN RH IN THE LOW TO MID TEENS
EACH DAY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE...AND IN
THE 20S ACROSS THE WEST. NO PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED THROUGH THE
END OF THE WORK WEEK.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ANGLIN
LONG TERM...SKRBAC
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 281745
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1145 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/

BREEZY WEST FLOW COULD CONTINUE ACROSS MANY SITES EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON...ENDING FROM WEST TO EAST LATE THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
AROUND 00Z WEDNESDAY ACROSS THE EAST. WINDS WONT BE AS STRONG AS
YESTERDAY...BUT GUSTS OF 25-30 KNOTS WILL BE POSSIBLE. MAINLY
CLEAR SKIES ARE IN STORE FOR THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ONLY A FEW TO
SCT CLOUDS POSSIBLE FROM KJAC - KCOD - KWRL - KBYG. A FEW ISOLATED
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORM WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE ACROSS NW
WYOMING...MAINLY AFFECTING THE KCOD AREA. SKIES WILL CLEAR AND
WINDS WILL DIMINISH TONIGHT. VFR CONDITIONS...WITH ONLY A FEW MID
LEVEL CU WILL THEN BE IN STORE FOR WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WYOMING
WHERE MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID
TEENS. THIS COMBINED WITH A FEW GUSTS OVER 25 MPH EARLY IN THE
AFTERNOON...COULD BRING BRIEF ELEVATED FIRE DANGER FROM AROUND
NOON UNTIL 3 PM TODAY. THE REMAINDER OF THE REGION WILL ALSO SEE
COOLER AND BREEZY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...WITH MIN RH REMAINING
ANYWHERE FROM 20 TO 40 PERCENT. WARMING CONDITIONS WILL BE FOUND
ON WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITYSPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...ANGLIN
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN/ANGLIN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280832
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
232 AM MDT TUE JUL 28 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT

THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT SIGNIFICANTLY IMPACTED THE
STATE OVER THE PAST 24 HOURS WILL CONTINUE TO FILL AND LIFT NORTH
THROUGH THE MORNING...AND WILL THEN TRACK EAST. COOL AIR ON THE
BACK SIDE OF THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO FILTER INTO THE REGION TODAY
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES 20 DEGREES COOLER IN SOME PLACES TODAY WHEN
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY. HOWEVER...HEIGHTS WILL BUILD THROUGH THE
DAY AND THE AIRMASS WILL GRADUALLY TEMPER THROUGH THE NIGHT WITH
MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES RETURNING FOR WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE
AIRMASS WILL BE FAIRLY DRY AS WELL WITH NO PRECIPITATION WORTH
MENTIONING. WINDS WILL BE MUCH LIGHTER TOO WITH ONLY A FEW 25 MPH
BREEZES LINGERING THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE NORTH AS
OUR STORM LIFTS AWAY.

.LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BECOME ESTABLISHED OVER
THE FOUR CORNERS REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD BRINGING MAINLY DRY
WEATHER AND ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SOME MID AND HIGH MONSOONAL
MOISTURE WILL BRING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
NORTH OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK.

DISCUSSION...THE MOST CONSISTENT SOLUTION DURING THIS PERIOD HAS
BEEN A STRONG UPPER LEVEL HIGH SETTING UP OVER THE FOUR CORNERS
REGION...WHILE KEEPING THE NORTHERN STREAM STORM TRACK AND
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONTS NORTH OF THE AREA. GFS IS THE MOST
CONSISTENT WITH THIS OVERALL SETUP THOUGH THE PERIOD WHILE ECMWF
BEGINS TO LOWER HEIGHTS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON MONDAY AND
TUESDAY. FORECAST GIVES MORE WEIGHT GFS AND CONSISTENCY. H5
HEIGHTS WILL AVERAGE 590-594DM THROUGH THE PERIOD...H7 TEMPS FROM
AROUND 14C IN THE NE TO 18C IN THE SW. THIS WILL TRANSLATE INTO
LOWER TO MID 90S ACROSS THE LOWER CENTRAL BASINS WITH 80S ACROSS
THE WESTERN VALLEYS. A VERY DRY AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA
ON FRIDAY WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL MOISTURE
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS WILL
BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED STORMS MOSTLY ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY
CONVERGENCE AREAS. THIS IS THE TIME OF YEAR THE SW MONSOON USUALLY MAKES
A SURGE NORTHWARD...55-PLUS DEWPOINTS AND ALL. HOWEVER...55F
DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM WILL REMAIN WELL SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHERN NEVADA
AND ARIZONA WITH LITTLE DEWPOINT RECOVERY ACROSS
WYOMING...AVERAGING IN THE 30S. THUS...STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL
BE MORE EFFICIENT WIND PRODUCERS WITH LITTLE RAIN.

&&

.AVIATION.../12Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY. A BREEZE WILL
DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN AFTER 16Z TUESDAY ACROSS THE SOUTHWESTERN WIND
CORRIDOR FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE AS STRONG
AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF TOMORROW. WIND
WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z WEDNESDAY AND
CONTINUE THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

REMAINING DRY TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WYOMING WHERE
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES COULD DROP INTO THE LOW TEENS. HOWEVER
IT WILL BE MUCH COOLER WITH LIGHTER WINDS...A FEW 25 MPH GUSTS
WILL LINGER ACROSS NORTHERN WYOMING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON BUT
NO WIDESPREAD DANGEROUS CONDITIONS WILL EXIST. WARMER ON WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY AND REMAINING DRY WITH LOW HUMIDITY SPREADING
FURTHER NORTH...HOWEVER WINDS WILL BE LIGHT. NO SIGNIFICANT
PRECIPITATION OR HIGH WIND EVENTS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN





000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 280447
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1046 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTWAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../06Z ISSUANCE/

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY. WINDS WILL
DECREASE TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. A BREEZE WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN
AFTER 16Z TUESDAY FROM KRKS TO KCPR AND NEAR KRIW...BUT WILL NOT BE
AS STRONG AS ON MONDAY. EXPECT SKC FOR MOST AREAS FOR MOST OF
TOMORROW. WIND WILL DROP UNDER 10 KNOTS FOR ALL TAF SITES AFTER 02Z
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH
ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...HATTINGS
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 272036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC- KWRL-KBYG LINE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT 20-35KTS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY KRKS-KCPR AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND. LLWS IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VCNTY KCOD- KBYG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL UNTIL THE STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ279>281-283-
285-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON





000
FXUS65 KRIW 272036
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
236 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY

A WEAK STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY APPEARS TO BE DRAPED EAST TO
WEST ALONG THE OWL CREEK MTNS AND ALONG THE JOHNSON/NATRONA COUNTY
LINE. NORTH OF THE BOUNDARY DEW POINTS ARE IN THE 40S AND 50S AND
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY THEY ARE ONLY IN THE 20S. MEANWHILE A STRONG
PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS PLOWING ITS WAY EAST ACROSS FAR WESTERN WY
AND WILL EVENTUALLY  THE AIRMASS ACROSS ALL OF WESTERN AND
CENTRAL WY THIS EVENING AS THE NORTHERN THIRD OF WYOMING
EXPERIENCES A SFC FRONTAL OCCLUSION. AS THIS PACIFIC FRONT
PROGRESSES EAST...THE POTENTIAL FOR STRONG THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS
ACROSS NORTHERN WY IN THE AREA OF HIGHER DEW POINTS AND RESULTANT
HIGHER CAPES. SPC HAS THIS AREA UNDER MARGINAL SO LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE A POSSIBILITY IN THESE AREAS THROUGH AT LEAST
EARLY THIS EVENING. SO FAR...SMALL HAIL HAS BEEN REPORTED AT
MAMMOTH AND DUBOIS AND AS FAR SOUTH AS CASPER.

THE OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS THE ON GOING RED FLAG WARNING FOR
PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL...EASTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CWA
WHERE MINIMUM RH VALUES RANGING FROM THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS TO
THE LOW TEENS HAVE BEEN COMMON ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING AS HIGH
AS 35 KNOTS FROM THE SOUTHWEST AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING PACIFIC
COLD FRONT WITH EVEN STRONGER SHIFTING WINDS ANTICIPATED WITH THE
FROPA. WITH 3 HOURLY SFC PRESSURE RISES ANTICIPATED TO BE UP TO
12MB...MANY AREAS COULD SEE POST FRONTAL WIND GUSTS OF UP TO 50
MPH. IN ADDITION...A HAINES INDEX OF SIX IS IN PLACE IN THESE
AREAS...NOT TO MENTION THE SMALL POSSIBILITY OF A DRY LIGHTNING
STRIKE. WILL LET THE RED FLAG RIDE THROUGH 10 PM THIS EVENING FOR
FIRE WEATHER ZONES 279...280...281...283...285 AND 300.

THE AFOREMENTIONED PACIFIC COLD FRONT IS BEING SLUNG BY A VIGOROUS
EASTBOUND SHORTAVE FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WHICH HAS BEEN TRACKING
EAST ACROSS MONTANA. THIS TROUGH WILL CLOSE OFF OVER EAST CENTRAL
MONTANA BY 06Z TONIGHT AND BECOME ALMOST VERTICALLY STACKED. THERE
IS PLENTY OF COLD AIR FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WRAPPING AROUND THE
BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW WITH H7 TEMPS EXPECTED TO DROP BETWEEN -2 AND
-3C IN NW WYOMING LATER TONIGHT. IN FACT...TEMPS ARE ALREADY ONLY
IN THE 50S IN THE FAR WEST BEHIND THE FRONT. WITH THESE COLD H7
TEMPS...SNOW LEVELS SHOULD DROP TO BETWEEN 7K AND 7500 FEET IN
YELLOWSTONE PARK LATER TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY MORNING WHERE UP
TO A HALF INCH OF SNOW COULD FALL JUST BEFORE THE WX SYSTEM PULLS
OUT TO THE EAST AND THE RESULTANT AREA OF PRECIP SHRINKS. AREAS
LIKE TOGWOTEE PASS COULD SEE A PERIOD OF SNOWFALL AROUND MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT WITH GRANITE AND POWDER RIVER PASSES TO FOLLOW. THE
SOUTHERN WINDS COULD SEE A VERY BRIEF PERIOD OF LIGHT WET SNOW
ABOVE 8500 FEET IN THE WEE HOURS TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SUNRISE.

FOR TUESDAY...A COOLER BUT PLEASANTLY MILD AND SUNNY DAY IS IN
STORE. WEST NORTHWEST WINDS WILL DIMINISH AS THE MONTANA WEATHER
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY.

.LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY

HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA WILL KEEP WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH MUCH OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH
THIS QUIET SOLUTION FOR WESTERN AND CENTRAL WYOMING.

CONDITIONS BEGIN TO CHANGE SUNDAY MORNING AS A WEAK DISTURBANCE
BEGINS TO MOVE TOWARDS THE STATE. THIS SYSTEM WILL GENERATE SOME
SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING...ESPECIALLY OVER NORTHERN AND WESTERN WYOMING. MODELS ARE
NOT IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE PROGRESSION OF THIS SHOWER
ACTIVITY... BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST TRENDING TOWARDS THE SOLUTION
FOR LOW COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE ECMWF INDICATES A
BETTER PUSH OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY ON MONDAY WITH EXPECTED
ZONAL FLOW. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE
ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA UNDER THIS SOLUTION. THE GFS IS NOT
AS AGGRESSIVE...WITH WEAKER MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY. UNDER ITS
SCENARIO...SHOWER COVERAGE WOULD CONTINUE TO BE FAIRLY LIMITED TO
THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN MOUNTAINS.

REGARDLESS...EXPECT GENERALLY WARMING CONDITIONS THROUGH MUCH OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...WITH SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES POSSIBLE SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION.../00Z ISSUANCE/

A STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO PUSH INTO WEST AND
CENTRAL WYOMING THROUGH AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED -TSRA WILL DEVELOP
ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC- KWRL-KBYG LINE
IN THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT 20-35KTS WILL
PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY KRKS-KCPR AND
ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND. LLWS IN ADDITION TO
CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED BEHIND THE COLD FRONT
VCNTY KCOD- KBYG THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL UNTIL THE STRONG PACIFIC COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST.
SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT ACROSS
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT THROUGH THIS EVENING FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35
MPH ACROSS THE AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE
EXPOSED AND WIND PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY
THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST
AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND
RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD
FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER AND CODY DISPATCH WITH
HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING
DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING.
IT WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD OF THE STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH
CANNOT BE RULED OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ279>281-283-
285-300.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...LIPSON
LONG TERM...BRANHAM
AVIATION...LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...LIPSON




000
FXUS65 KRIW 271800
AFDRIW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RIVERTON WY
1200 PM MDT MON JUL 27 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT

AN INTERESTING 24 HOURS IN STORE FOR THE STATE OF WYOMING AS A LARGE
AND STRONGLY FORCED TROUGH DIGS TO OUR WEST AND EVENTUALLY CLOSES
OFF AND STACKS OVER EASTERN MONTANA BY LATE THIS EVENING.

THERE WILL BE A NUMBER OF HAZARDS ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM...THE
MOST WIDESPREAD IMPACT WILL BE ON FIRE WEATHER AS SOUTHWEST FLOW
INCREASES AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM AND THEN ACCELERATES AS THE LOW CLOSES
OFF TO THE NORTH WITH WIDESPREAD WINDS IN EXCESS OF 35 MPH THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. IN ADDITION...RELATIVE HUMIDITY WILL BE IN
THE SINGLE DIGITS IN MANY AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE TODAY...WITH THE
LOWEST RELATIVE HUMIDITIES EXPECTED IN SWEETWATER COUNTY...WHERE WE
ALREADY HAVE A WILDFIRE...AND IN FREMONT...NATRONA AND SOUTHERN
JOHNSON COUNTIES. IN ADDITION...IT WILL BE UNSTABLE THIS AFTERNOON.
STORMS FORMED IN AREAS THOUGHT TO BE TOO DRY YESTERDAY...WHICH
KICKED OFF SOME DRY THUNDERSTORMS IN SWEETWATER COUNTY. THERE COULD
ALSO BE ENOUGH MID LEVEL MOISTURE THIS AFTERNOON FOR AN ISOLATED DRY
THUNDERSTORM...BUT AT THE VERY LEAST IT WILL BE DRY AND UNSTABLE
ENOUGH FOR A HIGH HAINES INDEX...WHICH MEANS THAT ANY LARGE FIRES
THAT MAY DEVELOP COULD BECOME PLUME DOMINATED.

FINALLY...A COLD FRONT WILL RAKE ACROSS THE STATE IN THE AFTERNOON.
FOR ABOUT HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...THIS FRONT WILL BE DRY WHICH
MEANS A SUDDEN WIND SHIFT AND ERRATIC FIRE BEHAVIOR FOR MOST AREAS
SOUTH AND WEST OF THE BRIDGER/OWL CREEK RANGES.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE TO THE NORTH ALONG THE FRONT AS IT
DIPS SOUTH THIS AFTERNOON. THERE IS SIGNIFICANT BULK SHEAR IN EXCESS
OF 40KT THAT COULD ENCOURAGE LARGE HAIL...PWAT VALUES IN EXCESS OF
AN INCH INDICATING PLENTY OF FUEL FOR STRONGER STORMS WITH FLASH
FLOODING A POSSIBILITY IN MORE PRONE AREAS...AND PLENTY OF DOWNWARD
MOMENTUM ASSOCIATED WITH THE SWIFT MID LEVEL FLOW WILL ENCOURAGE
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND PERHAPS A TORNADO. THERE COULD ALSO BE A FEW
MORE ORGANIZED STORMS ACROSS THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BUT THE POTENTIAL
FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IS LESS THAN IN THE BIGHORN BASIN AND
JOHNSON COUNTY.

IT WILL BE QUITE COOL BEHIND THE FRONT FOR JULY...WITH H7 TEMPS
PROJECTED TO DIP TO -2C IN THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING
YELLOWSTONE...WHICH WOULD TRANSLATE TO A SNOW LEVEL OF
7500FT...LUCKILY MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WILL BE OVER AND DONE BY
THE TIME TEMPERATURES BOTTOM OUT TUESDAY MORNING...BUT THERE COULD
REALISTICALLY BE SOME SNOW ABOVE 9000FT IN THE PARK TONIGHT.

SPEAKING OF COLD...THERE COULD BE SOME TEMPERATURES BELOW FREEZING
ACROSS THE WEST ON TUESDAY MORNING...INCLUDING AREAS OF THE UPPER
WIND RIVER BASIN...YELLOWSTONE...JACKSON VALLEY...AND STAR VALLEY.
OTHERWISE IT WILL BE FAIRLY MILD ON TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S
ACROSS MOST OF THE AREA WITH LOW HUMIDITY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH. WINDS WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AS WELL. WEDNESDAY WILL ALSO
BE DRY BUT SEVERAL DEGREES WARMER.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY

SYNOPSIS...UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD OVER THE FOUR
CORNERS AREA THURSDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH THE EXTENDED PERIOD.
DRY CONDITIONS WITH A RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES WILL
PREVAIL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. SOME MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO WRAP
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE FOUR CORNERS HIGH OVER THE WEEKEND
BRINGING SLIGHT CHANCES OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NORTH.

DISCUSSION...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARD A MORE
DOMINANT UPPER HIGH SETTLING INTO THE FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE IN
THE WEEK...AND HIGHER OVERALL HEIGHTS ACROSS WYOMING. A VERY DRY
AIRMASS WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AND FRIDAY...SO FIRE
WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN ELEVATED...THOUGH WINDS SHOULD BE
GENERALLY LIGHT.

A SHALLOW COLD FRONT WILL PUSH INTO NORTHERN WYOMING ON
SATURDAY...COMBINED WITH SOME MID AND HIGH LEVEL MONSOONAL
MOISTURE BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTH SIDE OF THE FOUR
CORNERS HIGH. ISOLATED HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MAINLY
CONFINED ALONG FAVORED MOUNTAIN/VALLEY BREEZE BOUNDARIES NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS IN THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. RETURN SE FLOW AROUND SFC HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE PLAINS MAY BRING BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ACROSS NORTH AND EASTERN WYOMING ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY...WHILE MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE FLOW FROM THE GREAT BASIN ACROSS THE WEST
AND NORTH. THIS WILL BRING A FEW HIGH-BASED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE WESTERN MOUNTAINS BY MONDAY WHILE SOME STRONGER STORMS WILL BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS MAINLY JOHNSON COUNTY IN WHAT WILL BE THE
BEGINNINGS OF LATE NIGHT MCS ACTIVITY FURTHER EAST OVER THE HIGH
PLAINS. HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIOD WILL BE MAINLY IN THE UPPER 80S
TO MID 90S ACROSS THE CENTRAL BASINS WITH MOSTLY 80S IN THE
WESTERN VALLEYS.

&&

.AVIATION.../18Z ISSUANCE/
A STRONG COLD FRONT IS PUSHING INTO THE WEST AND WILL PLOW THROUGH
AREAS EAST OF THE DIVIDE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
-TSRA WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT MAINLY VCNTY AND NORTH OF A KJAC-
KWRL-KBYG LINE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SFC SW WINDS AT
20-35KTS WILL PRECEDE THE FRONT WITH THE STRONGER WINDS FROM VCNTY
KRKS-KCPR AND ALONG THE EAST SLOPES FROM VCNTY KTHP-KLND.
LLWS IN ADDITION TO CONVECTIVE WIND SHEAR MAY BE ENCOUNTERED
BEHIND THE COLD FRONT VCNTY KCOD-KBYG IN THE AFTERNOON WITH A
PREVAILING NORTHERLY SFC WIND AND SW WINDS 20-30KTS AT RIDGETOP
LEVEL. SFC WEST WINDS AT 20-30KTS WILL FOLLOW THE COLD FRONT
ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WYOMING. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH
OVERNIGHT. THE NORTHERN ABSAROKA AND BIGHORN RANGES WILL LIKELY
REMAIN FQTLY OBSCURED WITH SCT -SHRA/-SHSN MONDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

...RED FLAG WARNING FOR ZONES 280 281 283 285 AND 300 THROUGH 10PM
TONIGHT...

JUST ABOUT EVERY ELEMENT WORTHY OF A RED FLAG WARNING WILL BE
PRESENT TODAY FROM WIDESPREAD STRONG WIND OVER 35 MPH ACROSS THE
AREA WITH GUSTS AROUND 50 MPH POSSIBLE IN THE MORE EXPOSED AND WIND
PRONE AREAS...TO LOW HUMIDITY...TO DRY THUNDERSTORMS AND A DRY COLD
FRONT. AREAS EXPECTED TO BE MOST AFFECTED WILL BE CASPER
DISPATCH...SOUTHERN CODY DISPATCH...AND RAWLINS DISPATCH AS THEY
WILL HAVE THE MOST TIME AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT IN THE HOT AND DRY
SOUTHWEST FLOW. MOST OF THE WET THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY WILL BE IN
TETON DISPATCH WITH SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN NORTHERN CASPER
AND CODY DISPATCH WITH HAZARDS THAT RANGE FROM LARGE HAIL TO A
TORNADO...WITH DAMAGING DOWNBURST WINDS THE MOST LIKELY HAZARD. IT
WILL BE QUITE A BIT CALMER AND COOLER BEHIND THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY
BUT IT WILL REMAIN DRY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE
STATE...WINDS WILL CALMER BUT A FEW GUSTS TO 25 MPH CANNOT BE RULED
OUT.

&&

.RIW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 10 PM MDT THIS EVENING FOR WYZ280-281-285-
300.

RED FLAG WARNING FROM 10 AM THIS MORNING TO 10 PM MDT THIS
EVENING FOR WYZ283.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ALLEN
LONG TERM...AEM
AVIATION...AEM/LIPSON
FIRE WEATHER...ALLEN




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