000
FXUS61 KRLX 200826
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
426 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT...TOGETHER WITH WEAK FLOW
REMAINS IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN
CONVECTION POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
THE INFLUENCE OF A BROAD SFC HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AND WARM TEMPERATURES TODAY. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE MOVE
OVERHEAD CONTINUING DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
PATCHY FOG DURING THE PREDAWNS HOURS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS...MAINLY ALONG THE RIVER VALLEYS.
RAISED POPS TO CHANCES DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS OVER ELEVATIONS
EQUAL AND HIGHER THAN 3 KFT. ANY CONVECTION AND CLOUDS SHOULD
DISSIPATE JUST AFTERNOON SUNSET.
MAINLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF BIAS CORRECTED MAV AND MET THROUGH THE
PERIOD.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
ONLY MINOR CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST FOR THIS PERIOD WITH
UPPER RIDGE BERMUDA HIGH BUILDING WESTWARD INTO THE AREA RESULTING
IN WEAK FLOW ALOFT. INHERITED MAX TEMPS BOTH DAYS IN THE UPPER 80S
FOR LOWLANDS...AND PERHAPS A DEGREE OR TWO WARMER SAT VERSUS
FRI...STILL LOOK GOOD. DESPITE WEAK LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE OVER THE AREA...DID ELECT TO NUDGE POPS IN THE EASTERN
HIGH TERRAIN UP JUST A BIT INTO MID-CHANCE BASED ON GOOD MODEL
AGREEMENT WITH REGARD TO SFC CONVERGENCE ON THE RIDGETOPS AS WELL AS
GOOD LLVL MOISTURE ON SE FLOW. NOT EXPECTING MUCH WITH REGARD TO
STRONG STORM POTENTIAL WITH A CAP ABOVE 700MB...BUT WITH TALL EL/S
ALONG WITH GOOD THETA-E LAPSE RATES AND VERY SLOW STORM MOTIONS IT/S
POSSIBLE THAT A FEW STRONGER STORMS COULD PRODUCE SOME BRIEF HEAVY
RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS. ESSENTIALLY THE SAME SETUP FOR SATURDAY AS
WELL...BUT WITH LESS MOISTURE TO WORK WITH. WILL KEEP INHERITED
SLIGHT CHANCE POPS AREA-WIDE SAT BASED ON CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE
ALONE...BUT WILL LIMIT THIS POTENTIAL TO AFTER 18Z FOR A FEW HOURS
WITH MAX DAYTIME HEATING. LESS MOISTURE AND STRENGTHENING STABLE
LAYER ABOVE 700MB WILL KEEP POPS IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS ONLY AT
LOW CHANCE AS WELL...WHICH PREV FORECAST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON. MOST
OF THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN SHOWERS HOWEVER WITH AFOREMENTIONED
STABLE LAYER LIMITING UPDRAFT STRENGTH AND PWATS NOT QUITE REACHING
1.00IN.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST PROBABLE SITES IMPACTED WILL BE
CRW...EKN...AND BKW.
LOW STRATUS COULD RESULT ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
17Z. LOW LEVEL CU COULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
VFR FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
CALM FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEAK SE FLOW COULD FORM SOME SLOW MOVING AND MAINLY ISOLATED
CELLS 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY INCLUDING THE KBKW VCNTY.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY AND DURATION OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H L L L L M H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR IN NOCTURNAL FOG LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL POSSIBLE 06Z
TO 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200556
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT THU JUN 20 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW. RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
FORECAST LOOKS REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED CONDITIONS. NO UPDATES
NEEDED ATTM...
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AS MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WAS A BIT FASTER FORMING THE FOG IN THE WET COUNTIES FROM
CKB DOWN THROUGH CRW INTO SW VA. PATCHES OF CLOUDS ON WEAK E FLOW
MAY DELAY FOG A BIT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
THIS WEAK SUMMER WIND PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THERMALS TO BREAK
THROUGH THE MID LEVEL CAP LATE THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THEN DRIFT ABOUT IN THE EVENING. WILL NOT ADJUST POP UP
A BIT YET...WILL HAVE GRAVEYARD SHIFT LOOK AT ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
BUT WAS THINKING IN THAT DIRECTION CURRENTLY.
NO MAJOR TEMP CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VERY DRY AS WELL...AND ALL FACTORS LEAD TO A LOW POP
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THROW IN SOME AFTERNOON
POPS BASED ON ELEVATION PRIMARILY AND ALSO ABILITY TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT
700MB...AND THUS DRY AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL COLLAPSE
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT IN ALL ASPECTS.
IN THE END...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
EXPECT IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG AND OVER AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL
DURING THE PAST COUPLE OF DAYS MAINLY CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT. THE MOST PROBABLE SITES IMPACTED WILL BE
CRW...EKN...AND BKW.
LOW STRATUS COULD RESULT ACROSS THE WESTERN SLOPES OVERNIGHT TO
DISSIPATE BY SUNRISE. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST
17Z. LOW LEVEL CU COULD DEVELOP WITH AFTERNOON HEATING AND
AVAILABLE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER...CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL
VFR FOR THE REST OF THURSDAY.
CALM FLOW AND CLEAR SKIES COULD RESULT IN ANOTHER FOGGY NIGHT
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.
THE WEAK SE FLOW COULD FORM SOME SLOW MOVING AND MAINLY ISOLATED
CELLS 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY INCLUDING THE KBKW VCNTY.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY AND DURATION OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L M H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L M H H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR IN NOCTURNAL FOG LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL POSSIBLE 06Z
TO 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...ARJ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 200211
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW. RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS MENTIONED IN THE AVIATION DISCUSSION FROM EARLIER THIS WEDNESDAY
EVENING...WAS A BIT FASTER FORMING THE FOG IN THE WET COUNTIES FROM
CKB DOWN THROUGH CRW INTO SW VA. PATCHES OF CLOUDS ON WEAK E FLOW
MAY DELAY FOG A BIT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
THIS WEAK SUMMER WIND PATTERN MAY ALLOW FOR SOME THERMALS TO BREAK
THROUGH THE MID LEVEL CAP LATE THURSDAY OVER THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THEN DRIFT ABOUT IN THE EVENING. WILL NOT ADJUST POP UP
A BIT YET...WILL HAVE GRAVEYARD SHIFT LOOK AT ALL THE 00Z GUIDANCE.
BUT WAS THINKING IN THAT DIRECTION CURRENTLY.
NO MAJOR TEMP CHANGES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VERY DRY AS WELL...AND ALL FACTORS LEAD TO A LOW POP
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THROW IN SOME AFTERNOON
POPS BASED ON ELEVATION PRIMARILY AND ALSO ABILITY TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT
700MB...AND THUS DRY AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL COLLAPSE
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT IN ALL ASPECTS.
IN THE END...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING NOCTURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT...ALONG THE
KEKN TO KCRW CORRIDOR WHERE THE GROUND IS THE WETTEST. KCRW VCNTY
ALSO HAD THE LEAST DRYING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRATUS LINGERING
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH THE 1 DAY OF DRYING...DO NOT
THINK THE STRATUS WILL LINGER MUCH PAST 13Z THURSDAY.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. THINKING MAINLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCT
OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 17Z THURSDAY.
THE WEAK SE FLOW COULD FORM SOME SLOW MOVING AND MAINLY ISOLATED
CELLS 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY INCLUDING THE KBKW VCNTY.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY AND DURATION OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H L L L L M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M L H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M L L L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L M
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L M
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR IN NOCTURNAL FOG LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL POSSIBLE 06Z
TO 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND WEAK FLOW. RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS
THROUGH THE WEEKEND. HOWEVER...MOUNTAIN CONVECTION POSSIBLE THURSDAY
AFTERNOON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD WILL SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN ALOFT WHILE
KEEPING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. MODELS INDICATE VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A BIT MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE. STILL...THE AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ALOFT THAT ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AT BEST. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FROM THE WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS...WILL UNDERPLAY MODEL QPF FOR THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP IT DRY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE BRINGING MAINLY
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH RIDGING AND
WARMING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THURSDAY WILL
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VERY DRY AS WELL...AND ALL FACTORS LEAD TO A LOW POP
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THROW IN SOME AFTERNOON
POPS BASED ON ELEVATION PRIMARILY AND ALSO ABILITY TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT
700MB...AND THUS DRY AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL COLLAPSE
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT IN ALL ASPECTS.
IN THE END...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WAS A BIT FASTER INTRODUCING NOCTURNAL FOG OVERNIGHT...ALONG THE
KEKN TO KCRW CORRIDOR WHERE THE GROUND IS THE WETTEST. KCRW VCNTY
ALSO HAD THE LEAST DRYING ON WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRATUS LINGERING
THROUGH ABOUT 17Z WEDNESDAY. BUT WITH THE 1 DAY OF DRYING...DO NOT
THINK THE STRATUS WILL LINGER MUCH PAST 13Z THURSDAY.
NO OTHER MAJOR CHANGES. THINKING MAINLY 3 TO 4 THSD FT AGL SCT
OCCASIONALLY BKN CLOUDS OVER MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES BY 17Z THURSDAY.
THE WEAK SE FLOW COULD FORM SOME SLOW MOVING AND MAINLY ISOLATED
CELLS 18Z THURSDAY TO 00Z FRIDAY INCLUDING THE KBKW VCNTY.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY AND DURATION OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 06/20/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M L L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR/LIFR IN NOCTURNAL FOG LESS WIDESPREAD...BUT STILL POSSIBLE 06Z
TO 12Z FRIDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191900
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
RIDGING ALOFT STRENGTHENS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CANADA AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD WILL SHIFT TO THE ATLANTIC
COAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS WILL BRING DRIER AIR IN ALOFT WHILE
KEEPING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND. MODELS INDICATE VERY MODEST
INSTABILITY THIS AFTERNOON AND THURSDAY AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY IN THE
MOUNTAINS WHERE LIGHT SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ADD A BIT MORE DEPTH TO
THE MOISTURE. STILL...THE AIR WILL BE DRY ENOUGH ALOFT THAT ANY
DIURNAL CONVECTION THAT TRIES TO DEVELOP OVER THE MOUNTAINS IS
EXPECTED TO BE SHORT LIVED AT BEST. IN ADDITION...WEAK SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION FROM THE WARMING ALOFT WILL HELP TO FURTHER LIMIT
CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL. THUS...WILL UNDERPLAY MODEL QPF FOR THIS
PERIOD AND KEEP IT DRY WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS WHILE BRINGING MAINLY
JUST SLIGHT CHANCE AFTERNOON POPS TO THE MOUNTAINS. WITH RIDGING AND
WARMING ALOFT...TEMPERATURES UNDER ABUNDANT SUNSHINE THURSDAY WILL
REACH WELL INTO THE 80S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK FLOW AT ALL LEVELS AS WE REMAIN UNDER CONTROL OF BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE TO THE WEST AND VERY WEAK RIDGING ALOFT. MID AND UPPER
LEVELS VERY DRY AS WELL...AND ALL FACTORS LEAD TO A LOW POP
ENVIRONMENT WITH ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THROW IN SOME AFTERNOON
POPS BASED ON ELEVATION PRIMARILY AND ALSO ABILITY TO REACH THE
CONVECTIVE TEMPERATURE...BUT MOST LOCATIONS SHOULD REMAIN CAPPED AT
700MB...AND THUS DRY AS WELL. SHOWERS THAT DO FORM WILL COLLAPSE
QUICKLY WITH LITTLE SUPPORT IN ALL ASPECTS.
IN THE END...NOT A LOT OF CHANGES TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. STUBBORN STRATUS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
FINALLY ERODES BY 19Z...SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY DENSE
RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING THE MAJOR TERMINALS. AFTER
14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CU. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN HIGH TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191750
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 PM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. STUBBORN STRATUS OVER CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA
FINALLY ERODES BY 19Z...SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH 00Z. AFTER 00Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR EXCEPT FOR LOCALLY DENSE
RIVER AND VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z AFFECTING THE MAJOR TERMINALS. AFTER
14Z...VFR SCT-BKN CU. JUST A SMALL CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORM...MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAIN HIGH TERRAIN.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191610
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1146 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1145 AM UPDATE...STRATUS ERODING RAPIDLY SO THAT MOST OF THIS
AFTERNOON WILL SEE LOTS OF SUNSHINE AND WARM TEMPERATURES. STILL WILL
LEAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE IN THE MOUNTAINS BEFORE DRY AIR MIXES DOWN
LATER AROUND MID AFTERNOON. WILL INCLUDE LOCALLY DENSE FOG TONIGHT.
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
16Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
STRATUS ERODING QUICKLY SO THAT GENERAL VFR SCT-BKN CU WILL PREVAIL
AFTER 18Z. JUST A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A THUNDERSTORM ARE
POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN.
WILL ADD LOCALLY DENSE RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AFTER 06Z
TONIGHT...AFFECTING MOST MAJOR TERMINALS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS AND/OR LOW
STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN CENTERED ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
STATES...WITH A RIDGE EXTENDING NORTH INTO WEST VIRGINIA.
SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL RESULT IN DEW POINTS INCREASING TO THE UPPER
60S AND LOWER 70S. AS A RESULT...ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND
EVENING HOURS.
AN UPPER LEVEL TROF AND AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM
THE WEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN BETTER CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND STORMS. THE BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET WILL CONTINUE TO
BE DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
EXPECT DAYTIME TEMPERATURES TO GENERALLY BE 5 OR MORE DEGREES
ABOVE NORMAL DURING THE PERIOD.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 191049
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
SFC FRONT ROUGHLY FROM POCAHONTAS COUNTY SW-WARD TO JUST NORTH OF
BKW AT THIS TIME AND WILL CONTINUE A BIT FURTHER SOUTHWARD INTO
VIRGINIA BEFORE STALLING LATER THIS MORNING. TWEAKED SKY COVER TO
REFLECT QUICKER CLEARING ACROSS SE OHIO AND INTO ADJACENT WEST
VIRGINIA. INGESTED RECENT OBS. OTHERWISE...NO MAJOR CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
ONCE EARLY MORNING FOG AND LOW STRATUS SCATTER/LIFT...VFR
CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND MUCH
OF THE EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WILL RESULT IN LIGHT
NORTH/NORTHEAST WINDS TODAY. A FEW SHOWERS AND PERHAPS A
THUNDERSTORM ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN...WHICH
COULD IMPACT EKN.
NEAR-CALM WINDS AND MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL RESULT IN FOG AND
REDUCED VSBYS ONCE AGAIN BY AND AFTER 03Z MAINLY FOR LOWLAND WEST
VIRGINIA LOCATIONS. DRIER AIR ACROSS SE OHIO AND MORE OVERNIGHT
CLOUD COVER MAY HELP TO MITIGATE FOG IN THESE AREAS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: TIMING OF FLIGHT CONDITIONS IMPROVEMENT THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. ONSET...COVERAGE...AND DENSITY OF REDUCED VIS
AND/OR LOW STRATUS AFTER 06Z THU MAY VARY AS WELL.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190800
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING
ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON. HIGH
RIDGE ALOFT KEEPS DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z SFC OBS INDICATE SECONDARY FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS
EAST/NORTHEAST TO NEAR CKB. NEAR AND AHEAD OF IT A FEW SHOWERS AND
EVEN ONE THUNDERSTORM HAD REDEVELOPED EARLY THIS MORNING. THE
ENHANCEMENT LIKELY DUE TO A VORT MAX...EVIDENT IN WV
IMAGERY...MOVING QUICKLY ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL OHIO.
ALL IN ALL EXPECT A NICE DAY FOR MOST FOLKS AS THE AFOREMENTIONED
FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA...UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES
BY THE AFTERNOON AND SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS. LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR
SUBSIDENCE WILL OVERSPREAD THE FORECAST AREA FROM NW TO SE AS A
500MB S/W TROUGH PUSHES EASTWARD ACROSS AND EXITS TO THE EAST AROUND
THE 18Z-21Z TIME FRAME. BY THE AFTERNOON HOURS HOWEVER...THE SFC
FRONT BEGINS TO WASH OUT AND AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDS TO THE
EAST. MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH GOOD SFC CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN PEAKS AS SFC FLOW ON THE EAST SIDE RETURNS
QUICKLY TO THE EAST/SOUTHEAST...WHILE FLOW ON THE WINDWARD SIDE
REMAINS NORTH/NORTHWEST. SOME QUESTION AND DOUBT AS TO THE DEPTH OF
MOISTURE BEING DEPICTED ON LATEST NAM12 SOUNDINGS HOWEVER...AND
LATEST RUC13 SOUNDINGS ARE INDEED MUCH DRYER IN LOWER LEVELS. EVEN
WITH THE MORE SATURATED NAM12...PWATS STILL ONLY PROGGED AROUND
0.8IN-0.9IN WITH VERY DRY AIR ALOFT WHICH WOULD SERVE TO LIMIT
COVERAGE. PREV FCST HAD A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS AND WILL CONTINUE
SLIGHT CHANCE TO LOW CHANCE POPS ESSENTIALLY FROM THE HIGHEST PEAKS
AND POINTS SOUTH AND EAST...WITH STORM MOTION TO THE SOUTHEAST. DID
INSERT A SLIGHT THUNDER MENTION WITH DECENT INSTABILITY IN THAT
AREA. AS SUCH...KEPT CLOUD COVER HIGHER IN THE EASTERN HIGH COUNTRY
AS WELL. ALSO NUDGED MAX TEMPS UP AN ADDITIONAL DEGREE OR TWO FOR
MOST LOCATIONS PER LATEST PROGGED 925MB AND 850MB TEMPS WITH MOS
GUIDANCE SUPPORTING...ALTHOUGH DID KEEP MAX TEMPS IN THE MOUNTAINS
JUST A BIT LOWER WITH MORE CLOUDS AND SOME AFTERNOON PRECIP
POTENTIAL.
OVERNIGHT FORECAST REMAINS VIRTUALLY UNCHANGED FROM PREV SHIFT
THINKING...WITH MINS IN THE MID AND UPPER 50S LOWLANDS. WILL HAVE
PRECIP ENDING AT 00Z THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. AREAS OF FOG ARE A GOOD
BET ONCE AGAIN IN THE LOWLANDS UNDER A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY AND
NEAR-CALM WINDS...ALTHOUGH SOME LOWER DEWPOINTS ACROSS SE OHIO AND
MORE CLOUD COVER IN THE MOUNTAINS MAY LIMIT COVERAGE IN THOSE
AREAS.
&&
.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVE OFF SHORE THE NORTHEAST COAST LATE
THURSDAY LOSING ITS INFLUENCE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS.
HOWEVER...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND ELEVATED HEAT SOURCES
COULD PRODUCE ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR STORMS OVER HIGHER
ELEVATIONS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
A MID LEVEL RIDGE MOVES OVERHEAD SATURDAY PROVIDING SOME
SUBSIDENCE AND CLEAR SKIES. AFTERNOON CU WILL BE COMMON JUST TO
DISSIPATE AFTER SUNSET.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND
INCREASING HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH
A CONTINUED MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK
LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD
UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M M M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L M M M H H H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190558
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 AM EDT WED JUN 19 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...
OVERALL NO REAL CHANGES MADE TO ONGOING FORECAST. A FEW MORE
SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING JUST AHEAD OF THE
SECONDARY COLD FRONT LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM HTS TO CKB AT 05Z. THESE
ARE LIKELY IN RESPONSE TO A VORT MAX EVIDENT IN WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY WHICH HAS PUSHED RAPIDLY SOUTHEAST FROM LOWER LAKE
MICHIGAN INTO NORTH CENTRAL OHIO AT THIS TIME.
1000 PM UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
HAVE DISSIPATED...THANKS TO THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSPIRING WITH THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WENT N TO NW EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS AND CANCELLED FFA EARLY.
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A FEW SHOWERS HAVE REDEVELOPED LATE THIS EVENING AHEAD OF AN
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ROUGHLY FROM CKB TO HTS. AT THIS
POINT...ALL SHRA HAS REMAINED JUST OFF TO THE NE OF CRW AND ONLY
EXPECTED TO POTENTIALLY AFFECT EKN AND CKB. THESE SHOWERS WILL
DELAY THE ONSET OF FOG AND LOW STRATUS...BUT WILL ONLY INCREASE
DENSITY SHOULD A SHOWER MAKE A DIRECT IMPACT ON A TERMINAL ONCE
THE SHOWER AND CLOUDS SCATTER. BY NEAR DAWN...EXPECT ALL SITES TO
BE AT LEAST IFR IN REDUCED VIS...IF NOT LOWER.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED
MORNING DESPITE FRONTAL PASSAGE AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. BY
MID-MORNING VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY AND EARLY EVENING AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MVFR VIS MAY
REDEVELOP NEAR END OF PERIOD.
NEAR CALM WINDS OVERNIGHT...AND BECOME LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW
ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE MORE THAN FCST WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA OVERNIGHT.
THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L M M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L L L L M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M M M H H
AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/50/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190208
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
HAVE DISSIPATED...THANKS TO THE LOSS OF HEATING CONSPIRING WITH THE
LACK OF LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE...LOW LEVEL FLOW WENT N TO NW EVEN
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THEREFORE LOWERED POPS AND CANCELLED FFA EARLY.
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PORTION OF A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...SO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT HAS BECOME TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE INTO FOG
THAT WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AS WELL AND IT MAY LOWER TO IFR
STRATUS BEFORE THE FOG BECOMES DENSE.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED MORNING
AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. A VFR AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TAF SITE TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE
MORE THAN FCST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD
ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 190010
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
810 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE CRUISES BY WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY...BEFORE DROPPING ANCHOR IN THE WESTERN ATLANTIC TO
BEGIN THE SUMMER SEASON.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FINE TUNED POPS WITH THE FRONT AND DECREASED CLOUD SOMEWHAT EARLY
ON...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE PORTION OF A LONG LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS HEADED
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY HAS ALL BUT DISSIPATED...SO THE
CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OF THUNDERSTORM AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING COLD FRONT
TONIGHT HAS BECOME TO SMALL TO INCLUDE IN TAFS.
WITH LITTLE CLOUD COVER...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONDENSE INTO FOG
THAT WILL BECOME LOCALLY DENSE OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
TENDENCY MVFR STRATUS TO FORM AS WELL AND IT MAY LOWER TO IFR
STRATUS BEFORE THE FOG BECOMES DENSE.
ALL OF THIS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO BURN OFF WED MORNING
AS IT MIXES INTO MORNING CU. A VFR AFTERNOON IS ANTICIPATED AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NORTH...ALTHOUGH A LATE DAY
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORMS MAY POP UP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.
LIGHT N TO NW SFC FLOW WILL GO CALM OVERNIGHT...AND THEN BECOME
LIGHT N TO NE ON WED. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE MAINLY LIGHT N.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE FOR A SHOWER OR
THUNDERSTORM TO IMPACT A TAF SITE TONIGHT. STRATUS MAY MATERIALIZE
MORE THAN FCST WHICH WOULD ALLOW FOR LESS LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT. THE TIMING OF IMPROVEMENT WED MORNING COULD
ALSO VARY FROM FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE WED 06/19/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M M L L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY M M L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M M M M L L H H M L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M L L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M L L L L L L
AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WED NT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 182027
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
SKIES WILL CONTINUE CLEARING WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS RIDGING GRADUALLY
BUILDS OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES START WARMING THURSDAY AND FRIDAY
AS RIDGING STRENGTHENS. MOISTURE TRICKLING UP FROM THE SOUTH WILL
STEADILY INCREASE DEW POINTS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND
BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
FOCUSED OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
&&
.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RIDGING WILL CONTINUE TO STRENGTHEN THROUGH THE WEEKEND INCREASING
HIGH TEMPERATURES INTO AT LEAST THE THE UPPER 80S. WITH A CONTINUED
MOISTURE TAP DEW POINTS WILL ALSO INCREASE INTO THE UPPER 60S TO
AROUND 70. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORM WILL BE A
POSSIBILITY MOST EVERY AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ABOVE NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND MUGGY CONDITIONS LOOK LIKELY TO CONTINUE INTO THE
FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK AS THE BROAD UPPER LEVEL RIDGING OVER THE
EASTERN HALF OF THE US CONTINUES.
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E OF AREA BY 20Z...TAKING BULK OF RAINS WITH IT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THIS DOES SO WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN MAINLY OVER SE OH/NE KY/W WV. THINK BKW WILL
HOLD ONTO MUCH OF THE IFR STRATUS...PERHAPS TRYING TO IMPROVE INTO
MVFR.
WILL TURN ATTENTION TO APPROACHING SFC FRONT FROM NW AND ANOTHER
S/W TROF. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME BKN SHRA WITH THIS AS IT
WORKS THRU LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SOME VCSH IN W TAF SITES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ATTM.
FG FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL AS FLOW TURNS TO NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV/SW VA. WILL PLAY
A COMBO FOR NOW WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR MOST OF TAF SITES GIVEN
RAINS TDY. DID TAKE MTN SITES DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS GET INTO KPKB LATE TO ALLOW LIFR FG TO FORM.
FG/STRATUS LIFTS BY 15Z...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR CU...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO 4 TO 5 THSD BASES IN AFTN. A FEW MTN SHRA POSSIBLE IN
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS
DISTANCE.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L L L L L L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M H H L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR WVZ008>011-
016>020-028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-084-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JR
LONG TERM...JR
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181854
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
ANOTHER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND WILL SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR SE OH...NE KY...AND W WV. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE
INTO AREA LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF
MOVING IN FROM SW. WITH SOME RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH
RVR...COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS. NOT SURE HOW STRONG IT WOULD BE GIVEN MARGINAL
INSTABILITY. HAVE SOME POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS THRU.
AS THIS PULLS E...EXPECT SOME STRATUS FOR FORM WITH LLVL FLOW
TURNING MORE NE. THIS MAY MITIGATE VERY DENSE FG...ESPECIALLY E OF
OH RVR. HOWEVER...STILL HAVE SOME FG IN THERE.
STRATUS/FG WILL BREAK UP BY 15Z...INTO A CU FIELD. HAVE SOME CHC
POPS IN MTNS FOR SOME AFTN POP UPS AS FLOW TURNS ARND TO SE.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPR LVL SYS PULLS E OF AREA BY 20Z...TAKING BULK OF RAINS WITH IT.
IMPROVING CONDITIONS AS THIS DOES SO WITH SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
FOR REMAINDER OF AFTN MAINLY OVER SE OH/NE KY/W WV. THINK BKW WILL
HOLD ONTO MUCH OF THE IFR STRATUS...PERHAPS TRYING TO IMPROVE INTO
MVFR.
WILL TURN ATTENTION TO APPROACHING SFC FRONT FROM NW AND ANOTHER
S/W TROF. EXPECT AT LEAST SOME BKN SHRA WITH THIS AS IT
WORKS THRU LATER THIS AFTN AND EVE. HAVE SOME VCSH IN W TAF SITES
WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. COULD BE SOME CONVECTION AS WELL BUT
CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO PUT IN ATTM.
FG FCST TRICKY OVERNIGHT AS SOME STRATUS IS EXPECTED DEVELOP POST
FRONTAL AS FLOW TURNS TO NE...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WV/SW VA. WILL PLAY
A COMBO FOR NOW WITH IFR CIGS AND VSBY FOR MOST OF TAF SITES GIVEN
RAINS TDY. DID TAKE MTN SITES DOWN INTO LIFR CIGS/VSBY. COULD SEE
SOME BREAKS GET INTO KPKB LATE TO ALLOW LIFR FG TO FORM.
FG/STRATUS LIFTS BY 15Z...PERHAPS BRIEFLY INTO MVFR CU...BEFORE
LIFTING INTO 4 TO 5 THSD BASES IN AFTN. A FEW MTN SHRA POSSIBLE IN
AFTN BUT CONFIDENCE NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO INCLUDE IN TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: STRATUS MAY NOT MATERIALIZE AS MUCH WHICH
WOULD ALLOW FOR MORE WIDESPREAD LIFR FG TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE
AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR OR WORSE FG DEVELOPING WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181358
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
958 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
945 AM UPDATE...
UPR LVL WAVE TRACKING THRU AREA WITH ASSOCIATED WEAK SFC LOW
MOVING E ACROSS PORTIONS OF CUMBERLAND PLATEAU/S KY. WIDESPREAD
RAINS...OCCASIONALLY HVY...HAS OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE CWA THIS
MORNING. SOME CONVECTION ELEMENTS NOTED ACROSS SE OH WHERE LITTLE
MOVEMENT IS OCCURRING ATTM. HAVE SEEN 1.5 TO 2 AMNTS ESTIMATED BY
DUAL POL ACROSS ROANE CO OVER PAST 1 TO 2 HRS WHERE A FLASH FLOOD
WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT AND REPORTS OF SOME FLOODED ROADS
BEGINNING TO TRICKLE IN. OTHER AREA OF NOTE...1 TO 1.5 INCHES HAS BEEN
ESTIMATED ACROSS EXTREME SE AND E RALEIGH CO. WILL FORGO WATCH FOR
NOW GIVEN MUCH OF THE HEAVIER RAINS HAVE SHIFTED INTO N WV AND SE
OH...AWAY FROM WETTEST AREAS ACROSS THE S. CANT RULE OUT ISOLATED
WATER PROBLEMS THOUGH...ESPECIALLY WHERE RAINS ARE MOVE CONVECTIVE
IN NATURE. WILL BE WATCHING PORTIONS OF SE OH AND EXTREME N WV
LOWLANDS NEXT COUPLE HRS FOR SOME LCL WATER PROBLEMS.
THIS SYS PULLS E THIS AFTN AND MAY SEE SOME BREAKS IN THE CLDS
LATE. WILL WATCH FOR SFC FRONT TO SAG SE INTO AREA THIS
EVE...ALONG WITH ANOTHER S/W TROF MOVING IN FROM SW. SHOULD THERE
BE ANY RECOVERY THIS AFTN ALONG AN W OF OH RVR...COULD BE SOME
STRONG CONVECTION 21Z TO 00Z AS HINTED AT BY SOME OF THE HI RES
NEAR TERM MDLS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WERE THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFT 18 UTC...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.
A SECOND SYSTEM...WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 22 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFT 06 UTC...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD THEN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181132
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
732 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH MVFR...LCL IFR...CONDITIONS
CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION. THESE SHOWERS/STORMS
WERE THE RESULT OF A SYSTEM THAT WAS APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER
OHIO VALLEY.
THIS SYSTEM SHOULD ACT TO CONTINUE THE SHOWERS AND STORMS INTO THE
AFTERNOON HOURS. AFT 18 UTC...EXPECT CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE FROM
THE WEST AS THE SYSTEM PASSES BY.
A SECOND SYSTEM...WITH MORE SHOWERS/STORMS...WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST
AFTER 22 UTC. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE AGAIN POSSIBLE IN AND NEAR THE
SHOWERS/STORMS WITH VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE.
AFT 06 UTC...CLEARING SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD
RESULT IN THE DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS. IFR CONDITIONS WILL
ALSO BE POSSIBLE ALONG RIVER VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE: CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION TODAY INTO
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY L L M H M M M M H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY L L H M M M M M H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L H H H H M M H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY L L L H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND/OR LOW CLOUDS EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING AS
THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA. MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES...LIGHT WINDS AND WET GROUND SHOULD THEN RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF IFR CONDITIONS IN FOG AGAIN AFTER 06Z THURSDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 181009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
ANOTHER COLD FRONT DIGS SOUTH FROM OH AND PA INTO WV TUESDAY
NIGHT. SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE EXPECTED ALONG THIS BOUNDARY...
ENHANCED BY A H5 SHORTWAVE WITH ASSOCIATED VORT MAX
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO POPS PER RECENT MODELS OUTPUT. DRIER AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...AS A SFC HIGH BUILDS TO PROVIDE
PLEASANT WEATHER CONDITIONS WEDNESDAY AD THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H M M M M H
HTS CONSISTENCY M L L L L H M M M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H M M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H M M H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L L L H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H L L L L H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180556
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH PUSHES ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. ANOTHER
STRONGER SYSTEM WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST WV IMAGERY SHOWS A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE OVER THE MID-
MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WAS LOCATED OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS.
IN RESPONSE TO THE MID-MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WAVE...SHOWERS AND STORMS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
THE SOUTHWEST COUNTIES OF WEST VIRGINIA.
THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE MOVING EAST AND SHOULD PASS
ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. EXPECT THE SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AND SPREAD NORTHEAST WITH TIME.
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HIGHEST CONCENTRATION OF STORMS WILL
BE ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THE STORMS THAT DEVELOPED LAST
NIGHT ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE AREA PRODUCED VERY HEAVY
RAINFALL...WITH A FEW LOCATIONS REPORTING FLOODING PROBLEMS.
AIRMASS TODAY SHOULD BE QUITE SIMILAR WITH WHAT WAS IN PLACE LAST
NIGHT. IN FACT...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LIKELY INCREASE AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE...RESULTING IN EFFICIENT RAIN PRODUCERS. CURRENTLY
THINKING THERE MAY BE A NEED FOR A FLASH FLOOD WATCH ACROSS PORTIONS
OF OUR AREA FOR TODAY....ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES.
BEHIND THE INITIAL SHORTWAVE...BELIEVE PRECIP CHANCES WILL DECREASE
AND COULD POSSIBLY COME TO AN END LATER THIS AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER...SHORTWAVE OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS IS THEN EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION TONIGHT. IN ADDITIONS...MODELS
INDICATE THIS FEATURE WILL DRAG A COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST. EXPECT
ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL ACCOMPANY THESE FEATURES.
&&
.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
FORECAST CONFIDENCE:
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180533
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 AM EDT TUE JUN 18 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE S OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
PREV DISCN...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND THE SOUTHERN
COALFIELDS OF WEST VIRGINIA SINCE 04Z. OUTSIDE OF THE PRECIP AND
IN FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS...VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED...WITH
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN THE FAVORED VALLEY LOCATIONS.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS...
...ESPECIALLY S. IFR CONDITIONS...ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS...
ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
A SECOND SYSTEM WILL MOVE SOUTHEAST AFTER 00 UTC. AS THIS SYSTEM
PUSHES SOUTHEAST....THE STORMS SHOULD BEGIN TO END.
CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L H H H H M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L L H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M L L L L H H H H H
AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JSH
000
FXUS61 KRLX 180009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT AND CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER APPROACHES FROM THE
NORTHWEST AND CROSSES TUESDAY NIGHT...PUSHING A COLD FRONT THROUGH.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
INCREASED POPS IN THE S OVERNIGHT IN RESPONSE TO SYSTEM APPROACHING
FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY.
PREV DISCN...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LESS STRATUS AND MORE FOG IS EXPECTED TONIGHT COMPARED WITH LAST
NT. THE FOG WILL BE MOSTLY MVFR...WITH IFR MOST LIKELY AT EKN.
A SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WILL KEEP OR
INCREASE STRATOCU IN THE AREA OVERNIGHT...WITH SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING IN COVERAGE FROM THE SW. THIS MAY CAUSE
THE FOG TO START LIFTING BEFORE DAYBREAK. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE LIKELY ON TUE...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS CODED...ESPECIALLY S. IFR
ALONG WITH BRIEF GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE UNDER ANY THUNDERSTORM.
SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT W FLOW ALOFT
BECOMES LIGHT NE ON TUE.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE SW MAY OR MAY
NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO SPREADING
OVER THE AREA EARLY TUE MORNING. CONDITIONS WITH THE PRECIPITATION
TUE MAY ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE TUE 06/18/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H L L L L L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H L L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H L L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L L L
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN FOG AND / OR LOW CLOUDS TUE NT AS THE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVE OUT OF THE AREA.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171953
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY THOUGH STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SECONDARY S/W TROF AND VORT MAX WILL CROSS TUE NIGHT AND WILL HELP
TO PUSH THE FRONT THRU. WILL LINGER POPS UNTIL THIS FEATURE PASSES
WED MORNING. DRIER AIR WILL FILTER IN WITH SFC HIGH TAKING CONTROL
LATER WED AND THU. WILL ALLOW FOR SOME CHC POPS IN MTNS THOUGH FOR
POTENTIAL DIURNAL DRIVE SHRA/TSRA AS WEAK SE LLVL FLOW DEVELOPS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WILL BE LOOKING FOR A DRIER PATTERN TO SETTLE IN THRU LATE WEEK AND
AT LEAST FIRST HALF OF WEEKEND. EXCEPTION IS THE MTNS WHERE A FEW
SHRA/TSRA POSSIBLE EACH AFTN AS A LEE SIDE TROF SETS UP IN
CONJUNCTION WITH LLVL SE FLOW AND DIFF HEATING. A S/W TROF WILL TRY
TO BEAT DOWN UPR RIDGE JUST AS IT TRIES TO BUILD E INTO AREA LATE
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HAVE CARRIED SOME CHC POPS WITH THIS AT THIS
DISTANCE. TEMPS WARM UP TO 2 TO 4 DEGREES ABV NORMAL...ESPECIALLY
AT NIGHT AT THE MUGGIES BEGIN TO TAKE OVER.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT THINK
THAT VALLEY FOG WILL ISSUE TONIGHT DESPITE THE OVERRUNNING CIRRUS
DECK. ALSO PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE
TIMING SUCH THAT THE VALLEY FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE WEST MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO
SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M H L
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JR
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171836
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
237 PM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY THOUGH STILL SOME SCATTERED
AFTERNOON SHOWERS OR POSSIBLY A THUNDERSTORM. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES TUESDAY BRINGING ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
TRICKY FORECAST WITH WARM MOIST MODERATELY UNSTABLE WSW FLOW BUT THE
LACK OF ANY WELL DEFINED FORCING MECHANISMS TO TRIGGER OR FOCUS
CONVECTION. THE VERY WEAK BOUNDARY WHICH DROPPED SOUTH ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON REMAINS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOST COUNTIES
BUT OTHERWISE SUNSHINE AND OROGRAPHIC EFFECTS WILL DRIVE WHICH AREAS
HAVE A BETTER CHANCE AT SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS. BASED ON THIS HAVE
GONE WITH SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER THE SOUTHERN AREAS AS WELL AS THE
EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AND ISOLATED ELSEWHERE. THIS ACTIVITY
SHOULD TAPER OFF QUICKLY AROUND SUNSET.
POPS WILL INCREASE AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT AS TWO FEATURES
APPROACH THE AREA. ONE WAVE FROM THE WEST SOUTHWEST THAT WILL BRUSH
OVER THE SOUTHERN AREA AND THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FROM THE WEST
NORTHWEST. NEITHER FEATURE IS PARTICULARLY STRONG BUT COMBINATION
FOR WILL MAKE FOR A FAIRLY DAMP DAY TUESDAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL
LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE PRECIP IS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP MEASURABLE PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IN RESPONSE...HAVE ADDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE THESE POPS TO LIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING
PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.
COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
SUFFICIENT.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS...SO HAVE TWEAKED NUMBERS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RIDGE LOOKS RATHER DIRTY WITH SEVERAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE
MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SPELLS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
UNTIL TIMING ON INDIVIDUAL VORTS CLEARS UP...KEPT PRECIP TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A
STRONGER VORT MAX FOR SATURDAY...AND WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE STRATUS HAS LIFTED SCATTERED TO BROKEN VFR DECK THIS AFTERNOON.
WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO STREAM TODAY AND TONIGHT THINK
THAT VALLEY FOG WILL ISSUE TONIGHT DESPITE THE OVERRUNNING CIRRUS
DECK. ALSO PRECIPITATION SPREADING IN FROM THE WEST LATE TONIGHT AND
TUESDAY MORNING WILL FURTHER COMPLICATE THINGS. RIGHT NOW HAVE THE
TIMING SUCH THAT THE VALLEY FOG THAT FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL MIX OUT
PRIOR TO THE ONSET OF THE NEXT ROUND OF PRECIPITATION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW TO MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NOT GET THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUD COVER. ALSO MID TO LOW LEVEL STRATUS DECK MIGHT REFORM
OVERNIGHT WHICH WOULD BRING MVFR TO IFR CEILINGS BUT KEEP
VISIBILITIES HIGHER. PRECIPITATION COMING IN FROM THE WEST MAY OR
MAY NOT ALLOW FOG TO LIFT AND CONDITIONS TO IMPROVE PRIOR TO
SPREADING OVER THE AREA.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...30/JR
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JR
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171541
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1141 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MORNING UPDATE...VERY WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY DROPPED FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH THIS MORNING AND IS NOW LINGERING OVER THE SOUTHERN FORECAST
AREA. CAN SEE A SMALL AREA OF THUNDERSTORMS TRIGGERING OFF OF
THIS BOUNDARY BACK TO THE WEST IN CENTRAL KENTUCKY AS WELL AS SOME
SMALL SHOWERS IN OUR TWO VIRGINIA COUNTIES. HAVE USED THIS
BOUNDARY AND THE AREAS WITH FEWER CLOUDS THIS MORNING TO INCREASE
CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS A BIT THIS AFTERNOON WITH
SCATTERED COVERAGE OVER SOUTHERN AREAS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... MODELS ARE A BONA FIDE MESS DEALING WITH
THE MYRIAD OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST...AND THE TIMING OF SUCH FEATURES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES
WITHIN THESE OPERATIONAL MODELS. ALSO DEALING WITH A SURFACE
BOUNDARY/WEAK COOL FRONT THAT WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NORTH
DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH WILL BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH AT ANY
GIVEN POINT DURING THE DAY. THE BEST APPROACH IN THIS CASE IS TO
TRY TO FIND EITHER STABILITY OR LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH
IN CONSTRUCTING THE POPS RATHER THAN TO TRY TO LATCH ON TO
SPECIFIC FEATURES.
NAM IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING TODAY THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO MORE OF A CUMULUS FIELD WITH
SOME VERTICAL EXTENT...BUT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITHOUT MUCH ABOVE
AROUND 825MB THROUGH THE MAIN HEATING OF THE DAY. VERTICAL
PROFILES WILL TIGHTEN UP IN TERMS OF THE T/TD SPREAD TOWARDS
DAWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MODELS ARE AT LEAST
CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING IS OFF. WILL RIDE WITH SLOWER NAM PER
COLLABORATION WITH RNK TONIGHT...BUT STILL CARRYING CHANCE BY 12Z
TUESDAY.
LACK OF HIGH POPS TODAY WILL GIVE AREA WATERSHEDS SOME TIME TO
RECOVER. HAVE HAD STOUT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE CENTRAL CWA/ROANE STILL DEALING WITH
ISSUES FROM THIS PAST WEEK. 3 HOUR FFG DOWN TO AN INCH AND A HALF
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL
LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE PRECIP IS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP MEASURABLE PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IN RESPONSE...HAVE ADDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE THESE POPS TO LIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING
PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.
COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
SUFFICIENT.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS...SO HAVE TWEAKED NUMBERS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RIDGE LOOKS RATHER DIRTY WITH SEVERAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE
MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SPELLS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
UNTIL TIMING ON INDIVIDUAL VORTS CLEARS UP...KEPT PRECIP TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A
STRONGER VORT MAX FOR SATURDAY...AND WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PKB LINGERS IN
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO
RISE WITH MIXING TODAY...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE LESSER AREA WIDE...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT...BUT
OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION. MAY SEE VCTS/VCSH OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. WILL TREND BKW CONSERVATIVE GOING THE SHOWER ROUTE WITH
VCSH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING RISES MAY VARY. MAY NOT GET
THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. MAY NEED PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AT BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26/JR
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26/JR
000
FXUS61 KRLX 171029
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT MON JUN 17 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER IN THE MID AND UPPER LEVELS TODAY. ANOTHER DISTURBANCE
PASSES TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ELEVATED CONVECTION TRIED TO GET GOING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES
WHERE CHANCE POPS EXISTED...BUT THIS WAS WAY TOO SHORT LIVED TO
KEEP IN THE GRIDS. MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS IN LOWERING THESE
VALUES THROUGH MID MORNING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE A BONA FIDE MESS DEALING WITH THE MYRIAD OF UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...AND THE TIMING OF
SUCH FEATURES WITH SOME DIFFERENCES WITHIN THESE OPERATIONAL
MODELS. ALSO DEALING WITH A SURFACE BOUNDARY/WEAK COOL FRONT THAT
WILL SLOWLY DROP IN FROM THE NORTH DURING THIS TIME...ALTHOUGH
WILL BE HARD TO DISTINGUISH AT ANY GIVEN POINT DURING THE DAY. THE
BEST APPROACH IN THIS CASE IS TO TRY TO FIND EITHER STABILITY OR
LACK OF SUFFICIENT MOISTURE DEPTH IN CONSTRUCTING THE POPS RATHER
THAN TO TRY TO LATCH ON TO SPECIFIC FEATURES.
NAM IS SHOWING SIGNIFICANT DRYING TODAY THROUGH THE MID AND UPPER
LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE...LEADING TO MORE OF A CUMULUS FIELD WITH
SOME VERTICAL EXTENT...BUT POPS ON THE LOW SIDE WITHOUT MUCH ABOVE
AROUND 825MB THROUGH THE MAIN HEATING OF THE DAY. VERTICAL
PROFILES WILL TIGHTEN UP IN TERMS OF THE T/TD SPREAD TOWARDS
DAWN...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH WHERE MODELS ARE AT LEAST
CONSISTENT IN THE PLACEMENT OF A STRONGER MID/UPPER LEVEL WAVE
EVEN THOUGH THE TIMING IS OFF. WILL RIDE WITH SLOWER NAM PER
COLLABORATION WITH RNK TONIGHT...BUT STILL CARRYING CHANCE BY 12Z
TUESDAY.
LACK OF HIGH POPS TODAY WILL GIVE AREA WATERSHEDS SOME TIME TO
RECOVER. HAVE HAD STOUT RAIN OVER THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS IN THE
PAST 24 HOURS...AND THE CENTRAL CWA/ROANE STILL DEALING WITH
ISSUES FROM THIS PAST WEEK. 3 HOUR FFG DOWN TO AN INCH AND A HALF
FOR THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA FOR THE MOST PART.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CURRENT THINKING IS THAT A COLD FRONT WILL BE LOCATED NORTH OF THE
REGION AT THE BEGINNING OF THE PERIOD. THIS FEATURE IS EXPECTED TO
PUSH SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY. A MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE IS ALSO EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA LATE
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY.
HAVE SLOWED DOWN ONSET OF LIKELY POPS ON TUESDAY. HOWEVER...STILL
LOOKS LIKE MEASURABLE PRECIP IS A GOOD BET ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AS
WELL AS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS FOR LATER IN THE DAY.
MODELS ALSO DEVELOP MEASURABLE PRECIP TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES INVOF THE COLD FRONT AS IT PUSHES
SOUTH INTO THE AREA. IN RESPONSE...HAVE ADDED HIGH CHANCE POPS FOR
NOW. MAY NEED TO INCREASE THESE POPS TO LIKELY. HOWEVER...WILL LET
NEXT SHIFT MAKE THAT DECISION.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN TUESDAY NIGHT...WHICH SHOULD BRING
PRECIP CHANCES TO AN END.
COMBINATION OF SUFFICIENT LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND DAYTIME HEATING MAY
BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE A FEW AFTERNOON AND EVENING STORMS ACROSS THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY AND THEN AGAIN ON THURSDAY.
SUFFICIENT.
TEMPERATURE GUIDANCE IS WARMER FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAYS...SO HAVE TWEAKED NUMBERS TO REFLECT CURRENT TRENDS.
&&
.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WILL INFLUENCE MOST OF THE LONG
TERM PERIOD...WITH GRADUALLY WARMING AND MOISTENING OF THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. UNFORTUNATELY...THE RIDGE LOOKS RATHER DIRTY WITH SEVERAL
VORT MAXES DROPPING DOWN THE EASTERN SIDE IN THE NW FLOW OVER THE
MID AND UPPER OHIO VALLEY/CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS SPELLS AT LEAST
SOME CHANCES OF THUNDERSHOWERS FOR THE SECOND HALF OF THE WORK WEEK.
UNTIL TIMING ON INDIVIDUAL VORTS CLEARS UP...KEPT PRECIP TIED TO THE
DIURNAL CYCLE...WITH THE HIGHEST POPS IN THE AFTERNOON OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. BY NEXT WEEKEND...BOTH GFS AND ECMWF ADVERTISE A
STRONGER VORT MAX FOR SATURDAY...AND WITH MORE MOISTURE IN PLACE
INCLUDED CHANCE POPS CWA-WIDE.
&&
.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STRATUS DECK NOW IN PLACE OVER THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PKB LINGERS IN
IFR CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS BELOW 1KFT. EXPECT THE CEILINGS TO
RISE WITH MIXING TODAY...AND VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL.
CHANCES FOR RAIN MONDAY WILL BE LESSER AREA WIDE...WITH AN
INCREASE IN THE CHANCES LATE TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY SOUTH. MAY HAVE
A SLIGHTLY BETTER SHOT AT VISIBILITY ISSUES TONIGHT...BUT
OVERALL...STILL EXPECTING CLOUD COVER WHICH SHOULD LIMIT THE FOG
FORMATION. MAY SEE VCTS/VCSH OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT. WILL TREND BKW CONSERVATIVE GOING THE SHOWER ROUTE WITH
VCSH.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILING RISES MAY VARY. MAY NOT GET
THE MIST/FOG TONIGHT DUE TO CLOUD COVER. MAY NEED PREVAILING
PRECIPITATION LATE TONIGHT AT BKW.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M M M M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H M M H M M M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H M M M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H M M M M M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M H M M M M M M H H
AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR AT TIMES IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26
| 
