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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 AM EDT SAT AUG 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
THE MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
VALLEY FOG SHOULD EVENTUALLY FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY
CLOUDS. SO IT SHOULD NOT BE AS DENSE AS YESTERDAY MORNING. FOG
SHOULD BURN OFF AGAIN SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE MAKING FOR ANOTHER
PLEASANT DAY.

MORE MOISTURE WILL MAKES ITS WAY NORTH TODAY GIVING A DECENT
CHANCE FOR AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...AND
MAYBE BACK INTO KY IF THE CU GETS SPUNKY ENOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN THIS MORNING ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER. EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN
AFTERNOON SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY...BECAUSE OF STRATOCU DECK.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290254
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1054 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1100 PM UPDATE...
FCST REMAINS ON TRACK OUTSIDE SLIGHTLY FASTER DROP ON
TEMPERATURES NRN PORTION OF FCST AREA.

800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 282356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 282356
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
756 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND WITH ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH AFTERNOON CU DISSIPATED.

PREV DISCN...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DENSE VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN OVERNIGHT ALTHOUGH PATCHY STRATOCU
MAY HINDER IT A BIT. A LIGHT SE FLOW MAY ALSO HINDER FOG ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER.

EXPECT ANOTHER VFR DAY SAT ONCE THE FOG IS GONE. AN AFTERNOON
SHOWER MAY POP UP IN THE MOUNTAINS.

SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BE CALM TO LIGHT SE...AND THEN LIGHT S TO
SW ON SAT. FLOW ALOFT WILL CONTINUE LIGHT SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/29/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
215 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH A BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE TRANSITION FROM WEAK UPPER RIDGING TO WEAK UPPER TROUGHING
OVER THE EASTERN U.S...WHICH WILL ALLOW AN UPPER DISTURBANCE TO
EJECT NORTHEASTWARD OUT OF THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO...LOOKS TO
BE DELAYED BY ABOUT 24 HOURS. THUS...SUNDAY AFTERNOON CONVECTION
LOOKS TO BE MAINLY WIDELY SCATTERED AND OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
LOOK FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S WITH MORE HUMID
CONDITIONS SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH VERY WARM AND MOIST AIR IN PLACE...THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER
DISTURBANCE LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY WILL BRING A BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND A STORM...ESPECIALLY
OVER THE MOUNTAINS. UPPER RIDGING WILL AGAIN BUILD OVER THE AREA
FOR THE MIDDLE AND LATER PART OF NEXT WEEK...WITH VERY WARM AND
HUMID CONDITIONS PREVAILING...BUT LITTLE RAINFALL. TEMPERATURES
WILL GENERALLY BE NEAR 90 DEGREES EACH DAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281743 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND INTO WEEKEND. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281733
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
133 PM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY. ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE IN
MOUNTAINS. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH BETTER
CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY LATER SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY WITH CU FORMING OVER THE HIGHER
TERRAIN...AND ALSO IN SE OHIO. NAM CONTINUES TO SHOW SHOWERS
DEVELOPING OVER THE MOUNTAINS TODAY. DID LEAVE AN ISOLATED SHOWER
IN...BUT THINK THE HRRR HAS A BETTER SOLUTION KEEPING SHOWERS EAST
OF CWA WHERE BETTER DEVELOPED CU ARE SHOWING ON SATELLITE.

HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS NORTHEAST TONIGHT...AND MODELS TRYING TO
SHOW SOME CLOUDS MOVING IN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE TONIGHT AND
DRIFTING NORTH THROUGH THE DAY. ANTICIPATE VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO
FORM...BUT MAY BE TEMPERED BY CLOUDS...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

WITH A BIT MORE MOISTURE COMING IN SATURDAY...THINK UPSLOPE FLOW
SHOULD LEAD TO AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR TSTORM ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED TODAY WITH A 3-4KFT CU DECK AND LIGHT FLOW. RIVER
VALLEY FOG EXPECTED AGAIN TONIGHT...HOWEVER SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
JUST HOW DENSE IT WILL BECOME ACROSS THE SOUTH AS CLOUDS INCREASE
DURING THE PRE-DAWN HOURS. HAVE MVFR FOG DEVELOPING HTS-CRW THEN
DISSIPATING SHORTLY BEFORE SUNRISE. WHILE FARTHER NORTH HAVE IFR
RIVER VALLEY FOG...WITH CLOUDS FILLING IN AFTER SUNRISE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
SPOTTY IFR IN RIVER VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE LATE SATURDAY INTO EARLY
SUNDAY DEPENDING ON CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 281443
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1043 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
1040 AM UPDATE...RIVER VALLEY FOG HAS DISSIPATED. SOME CU
DEVELOPING OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO KEEPING AN ISOLATED
SHOWER IN FOR THIS AFTERNOON SEEMS REASONABLE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP SHOWER IN THE
MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT TODAY...SO ENJOY
ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND TODAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WILL CONTINUE TO PRODUCE
SUBSIDENCE WITH DRY AIR AND FAIR WEATHER CONDITIONS. THE SFC HIGH
PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST ALLOWING SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE
AREA...TO INCREASE TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE CONVECTION ALONG THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCES IN THE MOUNTAINS.

WENT CLOSER TO THE SUPER BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD. GENERALLY...EXPECT THE HOTTEST DAY ON SATURDAY WITH
TEMPERATURES REACHING THE UPPER 80S LOWLANDS RANGING INTO THE MID
70S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280638
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EDT FRI AUG 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE OVERHEAD WITH WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY.
MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE POSSIBILITY OF
SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
RIVER VALLEY FOG BEGINNING TO FORM...BUT SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE
AFTER SUNRISE. BESIDES A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN AFTERNOON POPUP
SHOWER IN THE MOUNTAINS...NOTHING OF CONSEQUENCE TO TALK ABOUT
TODAY...SO ENJOY ANOTHER NICE LATE SUMMER DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
EXPECT IFR FOG TO FORM IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AND LINGER THROUGH
13-14Z. THEN MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES SHOULD PREVAIL. ANOTHER ROUND OF
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY...BUT SHOULD BE
LESS INTENSE THAN THIS MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING/INTENSITY OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
06Z TO 13Z FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...KTB/JW
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280247
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280247
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 280008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY OVERNIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH THE
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS RETURNING...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THE FCST IS ON
TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCU MORE OF A DIURNAL NATURE COMPARED WITH LAST EVENING...AND
THUS LESS TENACIOUS. WITH THE CLOUDS DISSIPATING...THERE IS NO
REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FCST...OTHER THAN HASTENING
THE TIMING BACK TO AROUND 06Z. THE FOG WILL FORM FIRST IN THE
COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE UPPER
GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN THE
LOWER KANAWHA AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

STILL CANNOT RULE OUT MOISTURE LINGERING AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...RESULTING IN PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCU OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THAT...ALONG WITH A LIGHT S FLOW STIRRING ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND
SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW...COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG
FORMATION. A REPEAT OF THE DENSE FOG AT BKW LAST NT IS NOT
EXPECTED OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW...NEARLY CALM OVERNIGHT...WILL TREND
FROM NE TO SE ON FRI. LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL SHIFT TO S
OVERNIGHT AND BE LIGHT S TO SW ON FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 13Z
FRI COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/28/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY
SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB/TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGE AND GENERAL SUBSIDENCE HOLDS OVER THE AREA. MOST
AREAS WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE DESPITE INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY.
THE TARGET AREA FOR ANY AFTERNOON SHOWER WILL BE THE ELEVATED HEAT
SOURCE IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL APPROACH 90 DEGREES
SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE MAIN CHANGE TO THIS PERIOD WILL BE A STRONGER UPPER
DISTURBANCE FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY LIFTING NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...ENHANCING THE POTENTIAL
FOR SHOWERS AREA WIDE IN THE VERY WARM AND HUMID AIRMASS IN PLACE.

THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC
EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE
HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER
RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO
BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE
TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY
NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL
SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND
ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST
FROM THE GULF STATES. TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY APPROACH 90
DEGREES EACH DAY WITH RATHER HUMID CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL UNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD
FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS
IN THE MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.
ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN
PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL TUNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DELIMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.  ALSO SOME
SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AT 18Z...STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...UNDER THE
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION LOCATED AT 6 TO 10 THSD FT AGL. STRATOCU IS
MOST WIDESPREAD FROM PA SW...INTO OHIO...LEAST IN SOUTHERN WV AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN AND FLATTEN
DURING THE 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY TIME FRAME.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY.

THERE IS THE DILEMMA OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5
THSD FT AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD
STRATOCUMULUS LINGERING OR REFORMING. THAT WOULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY
FOG FORMATION. ALSO SOME SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES
AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW.

FOR CONSISTENCY...WILL LEAVE THE 15 TO 20 POP NEAR SNOWSHOE LATE
FRIDAY AFTERNOON...FOR A MOUNTAIN THERMAL IN WEAK FLOW...BUT COLUMN
APPEARS RELATIVELY DRY.

850 TEMPS WARM ABOUT 4 C BETWEEN THIS AFTERNOON TO FRIDAY AFTERNOON.
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STRATOCUMULUS AROUND 4 TO 5 THSD FT AGL TUNDER THE SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION IS MOST WIDESPREAD NEAR 18Z FROM PA INTO OHIO...LEAST IN
SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. CLOUDS SHOULD CONTINUE TO THIN
AND FLATTEN REST OF THIS AFTERNOON.

NO REASON TO CHANGE THE RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMING LATE...AFTER 06Z.
FIRST IN THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS AROUND EKN ON DOWN INTO THE
UPPER GUYANDOTTE... UPPER TUG AND UPPER BIG SANDY...THEN LATER IN
THE LOWER KANAWHA VALLEY AND OHIO VALLEY...INCLUDING CRW...PKB...AND
HTS.

THERE IS THE DELIMMA...THAT ENOUGH MOISTURE LINGERS AROUND 5 THSD FT
AGL...YOU CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME PATCHES OF DEAD STRATOCUMULUS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...THAT COULD DISRUPT THE VALLEY FOG FORMATION.  ALSO SOME
SE FLOW STIRS OVERNIGHT ON MOUNTAIN RIDGES AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
AROUND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG 06Z TO 12Z FRIDAY
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR IN VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 06Z TO 13Z SATURDAY. LESS LIKELY SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271422
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN VICINITY TODAY AND TONIGHT. WARMING TREND FRIDAY
INTO SATURDAY.  MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH
POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THINKING YESTERDAY WAS THE MAX ON DAYTIME CLOUDS AND THIS MORNING
WAS MAX ON DAWN FOG COVERAGE. LAST OF FOG DISSIPATING OVER SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AT 14Z. A PATCH OF TRATOCU WITH OVC CEILINGS CENTERED
OVER WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES AT 14Z.

YET...ANOTHER COOL NIGHT TONIGHT WILL STILL PRODUCE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FOR 08Z TO 12Z FRIDAY.  PLACES THAT HAD STRATOCU OVERNIGHT LAST
NIGHT...SUCH AS PKB...MAY ACTUALLY HAVE MORE VALLEY FOG AT DAWN
FRIDAY WITH LESS CLOUDS TONIGHT.

HAVE DAYTIME CU AND STRATOCU THIS AFTERNOON.  ONE MAX MAY BE IN THE
LINGERING COOLER 850 TEMPERS IN THE NORTH TOWARD PA...ANOTHER MAX
MAY BE ON SOME WEAK UPSLOPE OVER POCAHONTAS CO.

DILEMMA TONIGHT...DO PATCHES OF STRATOCUMULUS LINGER OVER THE EASTERN
SLOPES IN THE WEAK FLOW.

TEMPERATURE FORECAST LOOKS GOOD...HAVE A FEW DEGREES WARMER TODAY
COMPARED TO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 271016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALL HUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

AN UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS IN NORTHERN WV AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. AREAS OF DENSE
RIVER VALLEY FOG HAVE FORMED IN AREAS THAT CLEARED. THIS FOG WILL
BURN OFF EARLY THIS MORNING. THE CLOUD DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A
CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING LATE
TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM SATURDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 270639
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW.
THERE COULD BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE
DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE
SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

MODELS SEEM TO BE CONVERGING ON THE AMPLITUDE OF S/W TROF
TRAVERSING THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS
THE PATTERN TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC. THIS LOOKS TO PUT ON THE BRAKES OVER THE OH VALLEY AND
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...RETURN FLOW FROM THE GULF WOULD AT LEAST MEAN
AN ISOLATED THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE
AFTERNOONS. SUNDAY MAY PRESENT THE BETTER CHANCES FOR CONVECTION.
THERE WILL BE MORE CLOUDS TO CONTEND WITH THIS
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY ON SUNDAY WHICH MAY TEMPER HIGHS A BIT.
STILL...LOOKING FOR TEMPERATURES TO RETURN TO ABOVE NORMAL
READINGS THIS WEEKEND AMID A GRADUAL INCREASE IN OVERALLHUMIDITY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 270536
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. THIS DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS
AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING AT SUNSET. WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWESTERN WV DUE TO THIS
DECK.

EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NORTH OF THE REGION WILL CONTINUE TO ROTATE A
THIN LAYER OF MOISTURE INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING...PROVIDING CLOUDS
FOR SOME AREAS. AREAS THAT CLEAR FOR A COUPLE OF HOURS CAN EXPECT
DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM.

THE DECK SHOULD MIX INTO A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON...DISSIPATING
AT SUNSET. EXPECT MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH DENSE RIVER VALLEY
FOG DEVELOPING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION OF DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD VARY
AS THIS IS DEPENDENT ON LOSING THE STRATUS DECK FOR SEVERAL HOURS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 270231
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU BENEATH INVERSION HANGING TOUGH IN WV...BUT FCST IS
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

745 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG
FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK
UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS.

AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY
06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY
NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 270231
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
STRATOCU BENEATH INVERSION HANGING TOUGH IN WV...BUT FCST IS
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

745 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG
FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK
UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS.

AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY
06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY
NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 08/27/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG
FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK
UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS.

AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY
06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY
NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG
FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK
UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS.

AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY
06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY
NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 262347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.
WARMING FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. MORE HUMID SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
745 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK WILL TEND TO BREAK UP THIS PERIOD. HOW MUCH FOG
FORMS OVERNIGHT WILL DEPEND UPON HOW QUICKLY THIS DECK...A NARROW
BAND OF MOISTURE ATOP THE MIXING LAYER...BREAKS UP. THE MOST BREAK
UP AND THUS IFR FOG IS MORE LIKELY THE FARTHER S ONE IS.

AFTER A VFR DAY THE BALANCE OF THU...FOG NAY START TO REFORM BY
06Z FRI...WITH LESS STRATOCU EXPECTED THU NT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE...MAINLY N BY DAY AND CALM BY
NT. LIGHT N FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER RIDGING WILL BUILD OVER THE OHIO VALLEY THIS PERIOD. WHILE
MOISTURE AND HEAT SLOWLY INCREASE AS WEAK WIND FLOW TURNS MORE
SOUTHERLY...MOST CONVECTION SHOULD BE SUPPRESSED BY DOMINANT
RIDGING. TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITIES WILL MODESTLY INCREASE...
WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER TO MID 80S FRIDAY AND LOWS
FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE LOWER 60S FOR THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD STILL SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL
DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING
UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAK UPPER
TROUGH BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE
SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE SOUTHEAST
COAST...MOISTURE AND HEAT WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE ON A SOUTHERLY
FLOW REGIME THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE
TO A CHANCE OF MAINLY A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...
ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND ESPECIALLY SUNDAY AS A VERY WEAK
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS NORTHEAST FROM THE GULF STATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH
INCREASING HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING
SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN
AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING
SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN
AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING
SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN
AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES INTO THURSDAY. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED THROUGH THE NEAR TERM. UPPER LEVEL
LOW CONTINUES TO SEND CLOUDS INTO THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. THIS LOW WILL GRADUALLY DRIFT AWAY
TONIGHT. THIS WILL LEAD TO LESS CLOUDS THAN LAST NIGHT ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN CWA...WHILE STRATUS IS STILL EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH.
WITH FEWER CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTH...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG
FORMING.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH TOMORROW...WITH MODELS
TRYING TO SHOW SOME PRECIP ON MAINLY THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
APPALACHIANS. WITH DRY AIR STILL IN PLACE AT THE SURFACE...WENT
WITH DRY POPS. SHOULD UPSLOPE FLOW BE STRONGER THAN
ANTICIPATED...MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT AN ISOLATED SHOWER ALONG
EASTERN SLOPES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING
SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN
AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE
TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MIX OF STRATUS AND CU IN PLACE TODAY. SHOULD BEGIN TO SCATTER OUR
ACROSS THE SOUTH...BUT CLOUDS SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE
NORTH THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THIS SHOULD PRECLUDE FOG ACROSS THE
NORTH...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS ARE EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES. EXPECT RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WHERE CLOUDS SCATTER OUT...WITH IFR
POSSIBLE. FOG COULD ALSO FORM ANYWHERE THERE ARE HOLES IN THE
CLOUDS...BUT SHOULD BE TEMPORARY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: HOLES IN THE STRATUS DECK TONIGHT COULD
ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG. SHOULD CLOUDS HANG TOUGH ACROSS
SOUTH...FOG WOULD BE LESS LIKELY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. HOLES IN THE
STRATUS DECK WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 261005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. HOLES IN THE
STRATUS DECK WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 261005
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
601 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...

UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY. HOLES IN THE
STRATUS DECK WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD ALLOW FOR DENSE RIVER VALLEY FOG.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 260641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





000
FXUS61 KRLX 260641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY




000
FXUS61 KRLX 260641
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 AM EDT WED AUG 26 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEATHER WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR MID WEEK. WARMING
LATE WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MORE HUMID LATER THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THIS WILL GENERALLY
MEAN GOING ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR DAYTIME HIGHS...AND ON
THE WARMER SIDE FOR NIGHTTIME LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP TROF WILL LIFT OUT ON THURSDAY...BUT STILL LOOKING AT
POTENTIAL FOR SOME STRATOCU DURING THE AFTERNOON. KEPT ISOLATED
MENTION OF AFTERNOON SHRA IN POCAHONTAS THURSDAY AFTERNOON ON WEAK
CONVERGENT UPSLOPE FLOW. OTHERWISE DRY CONDITIONS PREVAIL AMID A
COMMENCING WARMING TREND. HEIGHTS WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD ON FRIDAY
WITH WAA ON DEVELOPING SW FLOW. THERE COULD AGAIN BE AN AFTERNOON
SHRA OVER POCAHONTAS IN AN OTHERWISE DRY REGIME. WHILE THE HIGHS
BOTH DAYS WILL MODERATE TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS...THE LOW TEMPS
WILL STILL BE COOLISH.

THE FORECAST BECOMES A BIT MURKY THIS WEEKEND. MODELS ARE
STRUGGLING WITH THE AMPLITUDE OF A S/W TROF TRAVERSING THE HIGH
PLAINS INTO THE UPPER MS VALLEY BY SATURDAY AS THE PATTERN
TRANSITIONS INTO MORE RIDGING OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. IN
TURN...THE EXTENT OF ANY RETURN GULF MOISTURE IS ALSO IN QUESTION.
THE IMPLICATIONS OVER OUR REGION WOULD BE AT LEAST AN ISOLATED
THREAT OF A SHRA OR TSRA...MAXIMIZED DURING THE AFTERNOONS. WHAT
IS MORE CERTAIN IS THE INCREASE IN HUMIDITY AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
A FEW TICKS ABOVE AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE PATTERN THIS PERIOD SHOWS A BERMUDA HIGH OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC EXPANDING WESTWARD AS THE EASTERN U.S. UPPER TROUGH
LIFTS OUT. THIS EVOLVES INTO A WELL DEFINED UPPER RIDGE HOLDING
OVER THE WESTERN U.S. AND A BUILDING UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN
ATLANTIC...LEAVING A WEAKNESS BETWEEN THESE UPPER RIDGES OVER THE
EASTERN U.S.. WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER ALSO BUILDING OFF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST AND WITH THE WEAK UPPER TROUGH ALOFT...MOISTURE
AND HEAT WILL INCREASE ON AN INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW REGIME
THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO AN
INCREASING CHANCE OF A DIURNAL SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM...ESPECIALLY
EARLY NEXT WEEK...AND ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES
WILL RISE TO NEAR 90 DEGREES BY SUNDAY WITH INCREASING
HUMIDITY...AND CONTINUING INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW TO OUR NORTH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING A STRATUS DECK
INTO THE AREA. EXPECT IT TO RETREAT A BIT WITH THE MIXING THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT EXPAND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THERE IS A POSSIBILITY THAT THE STRATUS DECK
WEDNESDAY NIGHT COULD GET INTO THE MVFR CATEGORY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR OR WORSE RIVER VALLEY FOG DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND EARLY
MORNING HOURS FROM FRIDAY ONWARD.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY





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