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000
FXUS61 KRLX 211403
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1003 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE FORECAST FOR TODAY.  DID TWEAK AFTERNOON
HIGHS DOWN A DEGREE OR SO GIVEN MORNING RAOBS SHOWING H850 TEMPS OF
AROUND 11C...WHICH SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80.
STILL EXPECTING SUNSHINE TO DIM WITH TIME AS MID/HIGH CLOUDS GATHER
AHEAD OF APPROACHING FRONT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY WITH SOME MID DECK ALSO
SHOWING UP. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W TOWARD THE END OF
TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
AFTER CONSULTATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED NOT TO ISSUE
AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS TODAY. WHILE FUELS ARE CERTAINLY
STILL DRY...RH VALUES WILL BE A TOUCH HIGHER THAN YESTERDAY
ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER. ALSO...WINDS WILL NOT BE MUCH
OF A FACTOR AS THEY ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT 10 MPH OR LESS FOR
THE MOST PART. DID HIGHLIGHT DRY CONDITIONS IN THE FWF HOWEVER.
WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE SITUATION.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...CL
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
FIRE WEATHER...CL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
611 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS AND LATER MID DECK WHICH WILL
OVERSPREAD THE AREA FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.
STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE
MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY
TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER
DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH
INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS EVENING. WILL PASS ALONG TO
DAY SHIFT FOR POSSIBLY ANOTHER FIRE DANGER SPS.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT
RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA SHOULD IT SURVIVE...GENERALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER
TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL
ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN
GUIDANCE FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH
SOME VSBY REDUCTIONS BY 12Z TUESDAY. HAVE A CANOPY OF CIRRUS
OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY WITH SOME MID DECK ALSO
SHOWING UP. LIGHT SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE
DAY PROGRESSES BUT REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE INTO THE AREA FROM THE W TOWARD THE END OF
TAF PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210719
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH
PRESSURE WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT
RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH
FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z
FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT PUSHING
QUICKLY THROUGH ON TUESDAY. DUE TO TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED
MOISTURE...NOT POSITIVE THAT A FULL LINE WILL DEVELOP WITH THE
BOUNDARY...SO WILL LEAVE POPS IN THE LIKELY CATEGORY.

HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FOR WEDNESDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT OR THURSDAY...WITH
FAIRLY BIG DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE MODELS. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS ON ALL MODELS HOWEVER...DO NOT FEEL IT CAN PRODUCE ANY
PRECIPITATION...SO THE MAIN EFFECT IS TIMING OF CLOUD COVER AND WHAT
EFFECT THAT HAS ON TEMPERATURES. WILL STAY CLOSE TO CURRENT FORECAST
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A
CANOPY OF CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT
REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS KY AND INTO S WV BY END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 210634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT MON APR 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE HOLDS ON TODAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE
CROSSES TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER WARM DAY WILL BE REALIZED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. WILL HAVE
TO CONTEND WITH A CANOPY OF CIRRUS WHICH WILL OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM W TO E AS THE DAY PROGRESSES. STILL...BELIEVE UPPER 70S TO
LOWER 80S WILL COMMON OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER
ENHANCED FIRE DANGER DAY TODAY...PARTICULARLY IN THE LOWLANDS AND
MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER DEWPOINTS OFF TO W CURRENTLY...WILL BE HARD
PRESSED TO MAKE MUCH INROADS INTO THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL THIS
EVENING.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WITH THINKING FOR TONIGHT.
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE SHRA AND PERHAPS A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
FROM DECAYING CONVECTION THAT INITIALLY DEVELOPS ACROSS W KY...BUT
RIDES IN ON LOW LEVEL THETA E RIDGE OVERNIGHT. THIS LOOKS TO
AFFECT MAINLY S HALF OF CWA...GENERALLY AFTER MIDNIGHT. WILL WATCH
FOR ANOTHER AREA OF SHRA AND PERHAPS THUNDER TO ROLL IN AFTER 09Z
FROM W TO E...ASSOCIATED WITH PREFRONTAL ACTION WELL AHEAD OF THE
COLD FRONT. CONTINUE TO ROLL HIGHER THAN GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING TUE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.  LEAD SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CROSSES OVERNIGHT MON NT...GRADUALLY
MOISTENING UP WHAT IS INITIALLY A DRY...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT.  AIR MASS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE HEATING OF TE DAY...GIVING RISE TO THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...WHICH COULD THEN SURVIVE THEIR
EWD TREK INTO THE CWA TUE NT.

GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
TUE MORNING BEFORE CROSSING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THAT TIME ALTHOUGH A BRIEF UP TICK IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.  PW
VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.  CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 600 J KG-1 OFF NAM12 WITH ITS
HIGH DEW POINTS...GFS PEAK CAPE IS MUCH LESS.  WITH H8 WINDS TO 40
KTS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HARD DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FROM THE W.  LOW CLOUD EPISODE WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THIS
POLAR / PACIFIC FRONT...WITH MORNING CU LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND SRN WV COAL FIELDS.  OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...BLENDED IN A LITTLE
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS...HIGHER THAN THE MAV
NUMBERS...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MET FOR HIGHS TUE...AND A
LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MEX FOR HIGHS WED.  HIGHS TUE ARE JUST AS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AS
EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY W.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
06Z MONDAY THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE A
CANOPY OF CIRRUS OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM W TO E TODAY. LIGHT
SE WINDS THIS MORNING WILL TURN MORE W AS THE DAY PROGRESSES BUT
REMAINING GENERALLY LIGHT.

BASES WILL LOWER OVERNIGHT AS MOISTURE INCREASES WELL AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BUT STILL EXPECTED TO REMAIN VFR. PREFRONTAL
SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MOVE ACROSS KY AND INTO S WV BY END OF TAF
PERIOD WITH PERHAPS A BRIEF REDUCTION IN VSBY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 04/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210237
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. RH VALUES RECOVERING INTO THE
UPPER 20S/LOWER 30S PERCENT THIS LATE EVENING.

730 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. RH VALUES STILL DOWN IN THE 11-15
PERCENT RANGE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR HOWEVER. MAY KEEP THE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER SPS GOING AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING
WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER
LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE
TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS
MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE.

WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL
NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS.

LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING TUE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.  LEAD SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CROSSES OVERNIGHT MON NT...GRADUALLY
MOISTENING UP WHAT IS INITIALLY A DRY...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT.  AIR MASS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE HEATING OF TE DAY...GIVING RISE TO THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...WHICH COULD THEN SURVIVE THEIR
EWD TREK INTO THE CWA TUE NT.

GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
TUE MORNING BEFORE CROSSING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THAT TIME ALTHOUGH A BRIEF UP TICK IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.  PW
VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.  CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 600 J KG-1 OFF NAM12 WITH ITS
HIGH DEW POINTS...GFS PEAK CAPE IS MUCH LESS.  WITH H8 WINDS TO 40
KTS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HARD DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FROM THE W.  LOW CLOUD EPISODE WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THIS
POLAR / PACIFIC FRONT...WITH MORNING CU LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND SRN WV COAL FIELDS.  OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...BLENDED IN A LITTLE
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS...HIGHER THAN THE MAV
NUMBERS...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MET FOR HIGHS TUE...AND A
LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MEX FOR HIGHS WED.  HIGHS TUE ARE JUST AS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AS
EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY W.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 04/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50











000
FXUS61 KRLX 202342
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST. RH VALUES STILL DOWN IN THE 11-15
PERCENT RANGE AT THE TOP OF THE HOUR HOWEVER. MAY KEEP THE ENHANCED
FIRE DANGER SPS GOING AN ADDITIONAL COUPLE OF HOURS THIS EVENING
WITH EXCEPTIONALLY DRY AIR AND DRY CONDITIONS IN PLACE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER
LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE
TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS
MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE.

WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL
NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS.

LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING TUE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.  LEAD SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CROSSES OVERNIGHT MON NT...GRADUALLY
MOISTENING UP WHAT IS INITIALLY A DRY...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT.  AIR MASS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE HEATING OF TE DAY...GIVING RISE TO THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...WHICH COULD THEN SURVIVE THEIR
EWD TREK INTO THE CWA TUE NT.

GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
TUE MORNING BEFORE CROSSING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THAT TIME ALTHOUGH A BRIEF UP TICK IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.  PW
VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.  CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 600 J KG-1 OFF NAM12 WITH ITS
HIGH DEW POINTS...GFS PEAK CAPE IS MUCH LESS.  WITH H8 WINDS TO 40
KTS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HARD DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FROM THE W.  LOW CLOUD EPISODE WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THIS
POLAR / PACIFIC FRONT...WITH MORNING CU LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND SRN WV COAL FIELDS.  OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...BLENDED IN A LITTLE
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS...HIGHER THAN THE MAV
NUMBERS...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MET FOR HIGHS TUE...AND A
LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MEX FOR HIGHS WED.  HIGHS TUE ARE JUST AS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AS
EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY W.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 04/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 202002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
402 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH
MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE MIDWEEK. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER
LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE
TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS
MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE.

WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL
NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS.

LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL
MOISTURE SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ALL MODELS SAVE FOR THE CANADIAN ARE FASTER WITH A COLD FRONT NOW
CROSSING TUE MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.  LEAD SRN STREAM UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH OUT AHEAD OF MAIN SYSTEM CROSSES OVERNIGHT MON NT...GRADUALLY
MOISTENING UP WHAT IS INITIALLY A DRY...RELATIVELY DEEP MIXED
LAYER...LEADING TO AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR SHOWERS FROM W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT.  AIR MASS JUST TO THE W OF THE CWA BECOMES
SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE IN THE HEATING OF TE DAY...GIVING RISE TO THE
CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS UPSTREAM...WHICH COULD THEN SURVIVE THEIR
EWD TREK INTO THE CWA TUE NT.

GENERALLY HAVE LIKELY POPS AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS IT APPROACHES
TUE MORNING BEFORE CROSSING MIDDAY INTO THE AFTERNOON...WITH THE
BEST CHANCE FOR THUNDER DURING THAT TIME ALTHOUGH A BRIEF UP TICK IS
POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING IN THE ERN HALF OF THE CWA.  PW
VALUES DO INCREASE TO 1.25 INCHES BUT THE SYSTEM WILL BE
PROGRESSIVE.  CAPE VALUES INCREASE TO 600 J KG-1 OFF NAM12 WITH ITS
HIGH DEW POINTS...GFS PEAK CAPE IS MUCH LESS.  WITH H8 WINDS TO 40
KTS...GUSTY WINDS AND BRIEF HARD DOWNPOURS ARE POSSIBLE.

PRECIPITATION MOVES OUT QUICKLY TUE EVENING...FOLLOWED BY SOME
CLEARING FROM THE W.  LOW CLOUD EPISODE WILL BE BRIEF BEHIND THIS
POLAR / PACIFIC FRONT...WITH MORNING CU LIKELY TO BE LIMITED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND SRN WV COAL FIELDS.  OTHERWISE WEDNESDAY WILL BE DRY
WITH PLENTY OF AFTERNOON SUN...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA
FROM THE NW.

TEMPERATURES FROM PREVIOUS PACKAGE LOOKED GOOD...BLENDED IN A LITTLE
OF THE BIAS CORRECTED MET ON LOWS...HIGHER THAN THE MAV
NUMBERS...AND A LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MET FOR HIGHS TUE...AND A
LITTLE OF THE STRAIGHT MEX FOR HIGHS WED.  HIGHS TUE ARE JUST AS
LIKELY TO OCCUR IN BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS BEHIND THE FRONT LATE AS
EARLIER IN THE DAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...ESPECIALLY W.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 201919
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
319 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH MONDAY.
COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER
LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE
TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS
MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE.

WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL
NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS.

LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL
MOISTURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND MID WEEK COLD FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH A
QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING NEW COLD
FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS HAVE MAINTAIN CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS...SLOWING DOWN THE COLD FRONT EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...WITH PCPN
CONTINUING THROUGH FRIDAY AS IT EXITS NORTHEAST. THIS TIMING IS NOT
DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING THUNDERSTORM
PROBABILITY.  MODELS DO SHOW HIGH DEEP LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST
COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT
INCREASE IN DEWPOINT AHEAD AND ALONG THE COLD FRONT.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES AS NOTICED ONLY MINOR CHANGES
FROM PREVIOUS DAYS. KEPT POPS TO 51 PERCENT TO ACCOUNT FOR QPF ON
GRIDS. POPS COULD BE INCREASE TO LIKELY OR CATEGORICAL WITH FRIDAYS
COLD FRONT AS TIME APPROACHES.

SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BEHIND THE FRONT FOR THE WEEKEND PROVIDING
FRESH AIR FROM THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY ATMOSPHERE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND WARM DAYS HOLDS ON THROUGH MONDAY.
COLD FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER
COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES WERE NEEDED IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD FROM PREVIOUS
FORECAST. DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...PARTICULARLY IN LOWER
LEVELS...AND DAYTIME HEATING/MIXING...HAS RESULTED IN RATHER LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES THIS AFTERNOON...AS EXPECTED. RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA HAVE ALREADY DIPPED INTO THE
TEENS AS OF 17Z. FORTUNATELY...WINDS REMAIN RATHER LIGHT THUS
MITIGATING A MAJOR FIRE ISSUE...BUT HAVE A SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 00Z
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE DRY FUELS/ATMOSPHERE.

WITH THE VERY DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE...EXPECTING PERIOD OF COOL
NIGHTS...AND WARM SUNNY DAYS TO CONTINUE IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.
CLOUDS AND DEW POINTS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE TOMORROW OUT AHEAD
OF NEXT APPROACHING SYSTEM...TO AFFECT AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY. DID ELECT TO ADD A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ACROSS FAR
WESTERN ZONES...MAINLY EASTERN KY...MONDAY EVENING. ELECTED TO
LEAVE THUNDER OUT OF FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO TIMING OF POPS.

LAST CHECK OF RAWS OBSERVATIONS IN SOUTHWEST VA SHOW FUEL
MOISTURES SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN REST OF CWA...SO FOR NOW...WILL
CONTINUE TO KEEP THEM OUT OF THE SPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201335
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPERATURE/DEWPT/RH GRIDS.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE DEEMED NECESSARY.

DID GO AHEAD AND ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER. WINDS
RELATIVELY LIGHT...ALTHOUGH WILL OCCASIONALLY GUST IN LOWER TEENS
DURING PEAK HEATING. THIS COMBINED WITH DRY FUELS...AND DRY
ATMOSPHERE...FELT AN SPS WAS WARRANTED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM
CAN BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY
AND SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO
ACCOUNT FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW
TEMPERATURES FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS
AND DEW POINTS REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
609 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY AND
SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS
REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 200755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY AND
SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS
REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FRONT CROSSES TUESDAY WITH BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING
DRY. APPEARS SOME PREFRONTAL ACTION TUESDAY MORNING WITH BAND OF
SHRA AND THUNDER WITH FRONT TO FOLLOW. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED
HEAVILY ON WARMER GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED
IN THE LOWLANDS. CONTINUED THAT TREND FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. SOME POST FRONTAL STRATUS
WILL GRADUALLY BREAK UP OVER THE LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS TUESDAY
NIGHT WITH A CHILLY NIGHT ON TAP. SOME PATCHY FROST FOR SHELTERED
LOCATIONS IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. COOL DAY TO FOLLOW FOR
WEDNESDAY WITH SOME AFTERNOON STRATOCU ESPECIALLY N WV...WHICH
DISSIPATES LATE WITH PASSAGE OF THERMAL TROF AND SUBSEQUENT WAA.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 04/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200505
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 AM EDT SUN APR 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY AND WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD
FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED STATES CONTINUES TO
DRIFT SLOWLY EASTWARD. ONLY SOME CIRRUS CLOUDS FROM THIS SYSTEM CAN
BE EXPECTED OVER THE FORECAST AREA. WITH DRY 850 MB AIR TODAY AND
SOME SUNSHINE...WILL INCREASE THE DAYTIME WINDS SLIGHTLY TO ACCOUNT
FOR DRY AIR MIXING TO THE SURFACE. WILL ALSO LOWER LOW TEMPERATURES
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT SINCE DECENT RADIATION CONDITIONS AND DEW POINTS
REMAINING FAIRLY LOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WANE LATE SUN NT AND MON.  RH VALUES DIP WELL INTO THE 20S
AGAIN ON MON...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND ONLY 10
TO 15 KTS H9-H8...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THREAT.

COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSS TUE.  SRN STREAM
S/W OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE CROSSES MON NT...WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INITIALLY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT...AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN.

SHOWERS MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING INTO MON
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG
IT.  THIS WAVE SLOWS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS REFLECTED NAM12...AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EUROPEAN
SOLNS.  THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR FASTER WITH NO
WAVE...BUT THEIR EMPHASIS ON THE LEE TROUGH...MAKE THEM APPEAR
FASTER STILL.

WINDS...MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO...WITH ITS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING WITH THIS SPRING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST 500 J KG-1 CAPE
TUE.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TO COOL VALLEYS...MAINLY IN
THE E IN THE CASE OF THE LATTER NT.  KEPT RIDGES WARM BOTH NIGHTS.
BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS MON...AT OR ABOVE PREV FCST AND
GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SUN 04/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 192333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
EXPANDED HIGH CIRRUS SHIELD FURTHER NORTHWEST THIS EVENING PER
SATELLITE TRENDS...BUT OVERALL FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM
RECENT DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT COULD
STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY IN FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WANE LATE SUN NT AND MON.  RH VALUES DIP WELL INTO THE 20S
AGAIN ON MON...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND ONLY 10
TO 15 KTS H9-H8...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THREAT.

COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSS TUE.  SRN STREAM
S/W OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE CROSSES MON NT...WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INITIALLY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT...AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN.

SHOWERS MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING INTO MON
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG
IT.  THIS WAVE SLOWS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS REFLECTED NAM12...AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EUROPEAN
SOLNS.  THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR FASTER WITH NO
WAVE...BUT THEIR EMPHASIS ON THE LEE TROUGH...MAKE THEM APPEAR
FASTER STILL.

WINDS...MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO...WITH ITS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING WITH THIS SPRING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST 500 J KG-1 CAPE
TUE.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TO COOL VALLEYS...MAINLY IN
THE E IN THE CASE OF THE LATTER NT.  KEPT RIDGES WARM BOTH NTS.
BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS MON...AT OR ABOVE PREV FCST AND
GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE EFFECTIVE PERIOD. LIGHT
NORTHEAST WINDS EARLY THIS EVENING WILL BECOME NEAR-CALM
OVERNIGHT...BEFORE GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST BY 18Z SUN
AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE AXIS SHIFTS TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA.
WINDS SPEEDS HOWEVER WILL REMAIN LIGHT THROUGHOUT. SCT-BKN HIGH
CIRRUS DECK CURRENTLY OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST AND
SOUTH WHILE DISSIPATING AS THE SFC LOW TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE
AREA CONTINUES TO PULL AWAY...LEAVING BEHIND A MOSTLY CLEAR SKY BY
12Z SUN...WHICH WILL CONTINUE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...50/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191951
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER AND MONDAY. COLD FRONT WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM
RECENT DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE SURFACE.
WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS TODAY...BUT COULD
STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO WILL NEED TO
REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY IN FUTURE
SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC AND UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WANE LATE SUN NT AND MON.  RH VALUES DIP WELL INTO THE 20S
AGAIN ON MON...BUT WITH WIND SPEEDS OF ONLY 5 TO 10 MPH AND ONLY 10
TO 15 KTS H9-H8...DO NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH OF AN ENHANCED FIRE DANGER
THREAT.

COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL NRN STREAM TROUGH CROSS TUE.  SRN STREAM
S/W OUT AHEAD OF MAIN FEATURE CROSSES MON NT...WITH UPPER LEVEL
MOISTURE INITIALLY...BUT THE CHANCE FOR SHOWERS INCREASES W TO E
OVERNIGHT MON NT...AS THE MID AND LOWER LEVELS MOISTEN.

SHOWERS MOVE W TO E ACROSS THE AREA MON MORNING INTO MON
AFTERNOON...AHEAD OF THE ADVANCING FRONT...AND WAVE THAT FORMS ALONG
IT.  THIS WAVE SLOWS THE TIMING OF THE FRONT COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS
PACKAGE AS REFLECTED NAM12...AND...TO A LESSER EXTENT...THE EUROPEAN
SOLNS.  THE AMERICAN AND CANADIAN MODELS APPEAR FASTER WITH NO
WAVE...BUT THEIR EMPHASIS ON THE LEE TROUGH...MAKE THEM APPEAR
FASTER STILL.

WINDS...MOISTURE AND CAPE ARE MODEST WITH THIS SYSTEM SO...WITH ITS
PROGRESSIVE NATURE...DO NOT EXPECT ISSUES WITH SEVERE WEATHER OR
FLOODING WITH THIS SPRING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH DO HAVE THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT WITH AT LEAST 500 J KG-1 CAPE
TUE.

BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TO COOL VALLEYS...MAINLY IN
THE E IN THE CASE OF THE LATTER NT.  KEPT RIDGES WARM BOTH NTS.
BLENDED IN THE MET AND MAV FOR HIGHS MON...AT OR ABOVE PREV FCST AND
GUIDANCE. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ECMWF FOR HIGHS
TUE...LOWER THAN PREVIOUS FCST AND GUIDANCE GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND
RAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 191858
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLEARING OVERNIGHT...LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES EAST. DRY AND
WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT
DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY
IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIMINISHING SHOWER ACTIVITY TUESDAY NIGHT CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS AND ENDING AROUND MIDNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH
COLD FRONT PASSING TUESDAY EXITING TUESDAY NIGHT.

HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE FRONT BRINGS DRIER AND PLEASANT
TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY...WITH A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT.

LATEST ECMWF AND GFS MORE IN LINE TODAY WITH TIMING AND STRENGTH OF
COLD FRONT AND PCPN EXPECTED WITH IT. THE GFS SHOW SOME SFC CAPE UP
TO 600 J/KG. NOT IMPRESSIVE BUT AT LEAST ENOUGH TO INCLUDE THUNDER
FRIDAY. SHOWER ACTIVITY LINGERS FRIDAY NIGHT FOR SLIGHT CHANCE POPS.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES. INCREASE POPS AND DEWPOINTS WITH
COLD FRONT ON FRIDAY.
&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GRADUAL CLEARING OVERNIGHT AS LOW ALONG SOUTHEAST COAST MOVES
EAST. DRY...WITH WARM AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES FOR EASTER. A COLD FRONT WITH
MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
DRY AND WARM ARE THE WORDS IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE...AND BUILDING RIDGE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER THIS
PERIOD. CIRRUS ACROSS SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING SHOULD GRADUALLY CLEAR OVERNIGHT...AS LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHEASTERN U.S. CONTINUES TO PUSH OFF TO THE EAST...WITH A SUNNY
SKY EXPECTED FOR SUNDAY.

WITH A DRY ATMOSPHERE IN PLACE TODAY...AND GUSTY WINDS DURING
AFTERNOON HEATING...ELECTED TO ISSUE AN SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE
DANGER...AS 10 HOUR FUELS ACROSS THE REGION REMAIN RATHER DRY FROM RECENT
DRY SPELL. IN ADDITION...FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR SUNDAY ALSO
SUGGESTING THE POTENTIAL FOR RATHER DRY AIR TO MIX TO THE
SURFACE. WINDS ARE NOT EXPECTED TO BE QUITE AS STRONG AS
TODAY...BUT COULD STILL BE GUSTY AT TIMES DURING PEAK HEATING...SO
WILL NEED TO REEVALUATE THE NEED FOR AN ADDITIONAL SPS FOR SUNDAY
IN FUTURE SHIFTS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH NORTHEASTERLY WINDS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...THEN
BECOMING CALM. LIGHT SOUTHEASTERLY WIND DEVELOPS AFTER 12Z
SUNDAY...WITH CONTINUED VFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
911 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
9 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED SKY AND TEMPERATURE GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO
MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 190622
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE CROSSES TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. FOR TEMPS ON
SUNDAY...SIDED WITH WARMER GUIDANCE FOR THE LOWLANDS WITH E SLOPES
GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. INCORPORATED SOME
RADIATIONAL COOLING EFFECTS SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE
INCREASING GIVEN LOW AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR
FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN
ALL...A STELLAR EASTER SUNDAY.

NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST REGARDING FRONT FIRST HALF
OF TUESDAY. KEEP THUNDER CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON
WARMER MEX GUIDANCE WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE
LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF GOING TOWARD WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS
MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. TEMPS
BACK OFF A BIT ON TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT WITH FROPA. QPF
WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS TO CARRY AROUND A QUARTER OF RAIN
POTENTIAL WITH IT. EVERY LITTLE BIT WILL BE WELCOMED
THOUGH...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS WHERE IT HAS BEEN
UNUSUALLY VERY DRY OVER THE PAST FEW WEEKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/50/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 190537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT SAT APR 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH CLOUDS TODAY FROM STORM OVER THE SOUTHEAST US...BUT DRY WITH
WARM AFTERNOONS FOR EASTER WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE
AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW THAT THE STORM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US WILL STAY
SOUTHEAST OF THE FORECAST AREA...PROVING ONLY SOME HIGH CLOUDS. WILL
CONTINUE WITH DRY WEATHER. MOS TEMPERATURES HAVE BEEN ON THE COOL
SIDE THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS FOR AFTERNOON HIGHS...SO WILL STAY
TOWARD THE WARMER END OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD DESPITE SOME HIGH CLOUDS
FROM THE SYSTEM OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN US.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 182318
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
718 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MADE MINOR TWEAKS TO THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES. THE REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT AND VARIABLE SURFACE WINDS WILL PREVAIL
THROUGH THE PERIOD UNDER MID TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS. WINDS BECOME
LIGHT FROM THE NORTH ON SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 182015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
RELATIVELY WEAK FLOW THROUGH SUNDAY...INCREASING SLIGHTLY ON MONDAY
AFTERNOON.

NO MAJOR CHANGES.  SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY LINGER ON THE EASTERN
SLOPES AND FORM MORE CLOUDS OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT. SO INCREASED
SKY GRIDS A BIT OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE UPPER GREENBRIER
VALLEY DOWN THROUGH OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

LIKED OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST OF STAYING ON THE HIGH SIDE OF MOS
GUIDANCE FOR MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES EASTER SUNDAY.  ANY WEAK FLOW
WILL BE DOWNSLOPE FOR THE WESTERN LOWLANDS.

STILL HAVE SOME RELATIVE HUMIDITIES DROPPING DOWN INTO THE 20S
EASTER AFTERNOON...BEFORE DEW POINTS GRADUALLY INCREASE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. WITH THE LIGHT WINDS...RED FLAG CRITERIA NOT EXPECTED
SUNDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUING TO CONVERGE ON AN EARLY MORNING TUE SOLUTION WITH
REGARD TO UPPER S/W TROUGH AND ASSOC COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA WEST TO EAST. NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREV FCST REGARDING
PROGRESSION OF PRECIP CHANCES ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT AND
PARTICULARLY TUE MORNING. SYSTEM IS PROGRESSIVE AND THUS GENERALLY
ONLY EXPECTING AROUND A QUARTER TO A HALF INCH OF PRECIP WITH IT.
TEMPS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL BE SLIGHTLY COOLER TUESDAY AND
WEDNESDAY...WITH ANOTHER WARMING TREND LATE WEEK. ANOTHER SYSTEM
PROGGED TO PUSH OUT OF THE CENTRAL CONUS WITH COLD FRONT AT LEAST
APPROACHING THE AREA FROM THE WEST BY EARLY FRIDAY. LATEST OP GFS
AND EURO VERY DIFFERENT BY LATE IN THE PERIOD AND HAVE LEANED THE
FORECAST DURING THIS TIME FRAME TOWARDS THE EURO...WHICH BRINGS THE
FRONT ACROSS THE AREA WITH AN INCREASED CHANCE OF PRECIP WITH IT ON
FRIDAY AND LINGERING SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FRIDAY NIGHT WITH AREA
REMAINING IN THE BASE OF L/W TROUGHING TO THE NORTH.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL












000
FXUS61 KRLX 181747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT FRI APR 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK MOISTURE STARVED COLD FRONT MOVES IN TONIGHT. STORM SHOULD
REMAIN TO OUR SE ALONG COAST...RESULTING IN DRY/WARM EASTER
WEEKEND. ANOTHER FRONT WITH MORE AVAILABLE MOISTURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT AT 18Z MAKING ITS WAY TOWARDS CENTRAL OHIO...WILL PUSH
EAST ACROSS THE CWA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAVE NOT OBSERVED
ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS OHIO OR INDIANA TODAY WITH THIS
FRONT...SO REMOVED ALL POPS FROM THE FORECAST. WITH THAT BEING
SAID...A SPRINKLE CANT BE RULE OUT UP TO THE NORTH.

UPPER LOW IN SOUTHERN STREAM STILL LOOKING TO REMAIN TO OUR SOUTH.
MODELS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF GFS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS. MAIN
EFFECT WILL JUST BE CLOUD COVER...MAINLY ACROSS FAR
EASTERN/SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

OTHERWISE...DRY...AND WARM SATURDAY AS UPPER RIDGE AND SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE START TO BUILD BACK IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LOW AND ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ALONG SE COAST WILL VERY SLOWLY
TRACK E INTO W ATLANTIC BY END OF WEEKEND. SENSIBLE WX EFFECTS FROM
THIS SYSTEM CONTINUES TO BE MAINLY A CLOUD ISSUE...WITH SOME CIRRUS
MAINLY OVER SE WV/SW VA ZONES SATURDAY. THERE ARE HINTS THAT SOME
LOW LEVEL CLOUDS MAY TRY TO SNEAK INTO POCAHONTAS SUNDAY NIGHT ON
SOME SE FLOW H85 MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM. WILL
START WITH NE SURFACE FLOW ON SATURDAY...VEERING TO LIGHT SE FLOW ON
SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS THIS WEEKEND TRIED TO ROLL WITH WARM GUIDANCE FOR
THE LOWLANDS BOTH DAYS WITH E SLOPES GIVEN A NOD ON COOLER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. TRIED TO INCORPORATE SOME RADIATIONAL COOLING
EFFECTS FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS BOTH NIGHTS BUT WITH AN OVERALL INCREASE
COME SUNDAY NIGHT. FIRE DANGER THREAT WILL BE INCREASING GIVEN LOW
AFTERNOON RH VALUES AND DRYING OF 10 HR FUELS...BUT WINDS SHOULD NOT
BE A COMPLICATING FACTOR. ALL IN ALL...A STELLAR EASTER WEEKEND.

MAIN CHANGE TO EARLY NEXT WEEK WAS TO DELAY POPS PER SLOWER TRENDS
ON MODELS FOR S/W TROF AND SURFACE FRONT. HAVE FROPA ON TUESDAY WITH
BAND OF LIKELY POPS WITH MONDAY STAYING ON DRIER SIDE. KEEP THUNDER
CHANCES IN THE MOUNTAINS WHERE BEST LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY WILL
RESIDE. FOR TEMPS MONDAY...LEANED HEAVILY ON WARMER MEX GUIDANCE
WITH UPPER 70S TO AROUND 80F DEPICTED IN THE LOWLANDS. LIKED IDEA OF
GOING A BIT ABOVE EVEN WARMEST GUIDANCE FOR LOWS MONDAY NIGHT GIVEN
INCREASE IN BL STIR AS WELL AS CLOUDS. QPF WISE...THIS SYSTEM LOOKS
TO CARRY .25 TO .50 INCHES OF RAIN POTENTIAL WITH IT. IT IS GETTING
ON THE DRY SIDE IN THE MOUNTAINS...PARTICULARLY IN THE N MOUNTAINS
WITH EKN RUNNING QUITE A BIT BELOW NORMAL SO FAR THIS MONTH. SO
THIS WOULD BE WELCOMED RAIN OUT THERE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED WPC THINKING THROUGH THE LONG TERM PERIOD. FAIRLY TRANQUIL
PERIOD GENERALLY-SPEAKING WITH THE EXCEPTION OF A S/W UPPER TROUGH
AND COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL REGARDING THAT SYSTEM...BUT YET
BETTER AGREEMENT BRINGING THE SYSTEM ACROSS EITHER MON NIGHT OR TUE
MORNING. AS SUCH...LOWERED POPS FOR MUCH OF THE DAYLIGHT HOURS
MONDAY BEFORE BRINGING IN HIGHER CHANCES OF PRECIP MONDAY
NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. CONTINUED TO CAP PRECIP CHANCES AT HIGH CHANCE
WITH THE TIMING UNCERTAINTIES. NO MAJOR HEAT WAVES OR COLD BLASTS ON
THE HORIZON DURING THIS PERIOD. DID WARM TEMPS UP A FAIR AMOUNT FOR
MONDAY...INTO THE MID/UPPER 70S FOR THE LOWLANDS...WITH GREATER
CONFIDENCE THAT PRECIP WON/T BE AFFECTING THE FORECAST AREA UNTIL
AT LEAST MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS...AND SCT TO BKN MID TO
HIGH CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MOISTURE FROM A LOW TO OUR SOUTH COULD CREEP
FAR ENOUGH NORTH LATE TONIGHT AND SATURDAY FOR BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS ACROSS MOUNTAINS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...SL










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