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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS
IN ON MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS BASED ON SREF AND LOCALLY RUN WRFARW AND WRFNMM.
THIS TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT A BIT AND REFLECTS A BIT OF A DAGGER
SE INTO WV EARLY MON MORNING...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.  STILL LOOKING AT A MINIMAL FZRA POTENTIAL
OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ICE ACCRETION.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR START...BUT HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS IN FAVOR OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W THAT WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z MON.  ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY 00Z MON.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN MINIMAL BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE GENERALLY A SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN TRANSITION SUN
MORNING.  FOR PKB...THIS SNOW / TRANSITION IS CODED FOR 09-16Z SUN
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS.  VSBY BECOMES VFR AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES
SUN AFTERNOON...AND CIGS MAY ALSO CLIMB ABOVE 3 KFT FOR A MAINLY
VFR AFTERNOON.  FOR CKB...THE TIMING IF 12-16Z BUT WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.  FOR EKN...THE SNOW /
TRANSITION TIME IS 14-17Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.  CKB AND EKN
WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT SUN AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES.

SOUTHERN SITES HTS...CRW AND BKW WILL HAVE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ALTOCU...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK COULD BRIEFLY SNEAK AS
FAR SE AS CRW BEFORE DAWN SUN MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTS TO INCREASE QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE
SUN...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE W.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S ON SUN AND
FRESHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS...AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...SUN AFTERNOON.  UP N FROM PKB TO CKB...SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND EVEN BACK TO SE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MODERATE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W SUN MORNING...AND THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SUN AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 010014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS
IN ON MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS BASED ON SREF AND LOCALLY RUN WRFARW AND WRFNMM.
THIS TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT A BIT AND REFLECTS A BIT OF A DAGGER
SE INTO WV EARLY MON MORNING...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.  STILL LOOKING AT A MINIMAL FZRA POTENTIAL
OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ICE ACCRETION.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR START...BUT HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS IN FAVOR OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W THAT WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z MON.  ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY 00Z MON.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN MINIMAL BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE GENERALLY A SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN TRANSITION SUN
MORNING.  FOR PKB...THIS SNOW / TRANSITION IS CODED FOR 09-16Z SUN
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS.  VSBY BECOMES VFR AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES
SUN AFTERNOON...AND CIGS MAY ALSO CLIMB ABOVE 3 KFT FOR A MAINLY
VFR AFTERNOON.  FOR CKB...THE TIMING IF 12-16Z BUT WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.  FOR EKN...THE SNOW /
TRANSITION TIME IS 14-17Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.  CKB AND EKN
WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT SUN AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES.

SOUTHERN SITES HTS...CRW AND BKW WILL HAVE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ALTOCU...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK COULD BRIEFLY SNEAK AS
FAR SE AS CRW BEFORE DAWN SUN MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTS TO INCREASE QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE
SUN...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE W.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S ON SUN AND
FRESHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS...AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...SUN AFTERNOON.  UP N FROM PKB TO CKB...SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND EVEN BACK TO SE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MODERATE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W SUN MORNING...AND THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SUN AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 010014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS
IN ON MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS BASED ON SREF AND LOCALLY RUN WRFARW AND WRFNMM.
THIS TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT A BIT AND REFLECTS A BIT OF A DAGGER
SE INTO WV EARLY MON MORNING...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.  STILL LOOKING AT A MINIMAL FZRA POTENTIAL
OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ICE ACCRETION.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR START...BUT HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS IN FAVOR OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W THAT WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z MON.  ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY 00Z MON.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN MINIMAL BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE GENERALLY A SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN TRANSITION SUN
MORNING.  FOR PKB...THIS SNOW / TRANSITION IS CODED FOR 09-16Z SUN
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS.  VSBY BECOMES VFR AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES
SUN AFTERNOON...AND CIGS MAY ALSO CLIMB ABOVE 3 KFT FOR A MAINLY
VFR AFTERNOON.  FOR CKB...THE TIMING IF 12-16Z BUT WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.  FOR EKN...THE SNOW /
TRANSITION TIME IS 14-17Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.  CKB AND EKN
WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT SUN AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES.

SOUTHERN SITES HTS...CRW AND BKW WILL HAVE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ALTOCU...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK COULD BRIEFLY SNEAK AS
FAR SE AS CRW BEFORE DAWN SUN MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTS TO INCREASE QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE
SUN...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE W.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S ON SUN AND
FRESHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS...AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...SUN AFTERNOON.  UP N FROM PKB TO CKB...SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND EVEN BACK TO SE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MODERATE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W SUN MORNING...AND THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SUN AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 010014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
713 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY.  LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.  MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS
IN ON MONDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS BASED ON SREF AND LOCALLY RUN WRFARW AND WRFNMM.
THIS TIGHTENS UP THE GRADIENT A BIT AND REFLECTS A BIT OF A DAGGER
SE INTO WV EARLY MON MORNING...AHEAD OF THE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE UPCOMING SYSTEM.  STILL LOOKING AT A MINIMAL FZRA POTENTIAL
OVER A SMALL PORTION OF THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON THE ORDER OF A FEW
HUNDREDTHS OF AN INCH ICE ACCRETION.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR START...BUT HIGH PRESSURE DEPARTS IN FAVOR OF A LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE W THAT WILL REACH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY
BY THE END OF THE TAF PERIOD...00Z MON.  ITS WARM FRONT WILL BRING A
ROUND OF MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS IN MIXED WINTRY PRECIPITATION MAINLY
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV...BEFORE LIFTING N OF THE
AREA BY 00Z MON.

WITH THE CHANCE FOR FREEZING RAIN MINIMAL BASED ON THERMAL
PROFILES...HAVE GENERALLY A SNOW TO SLEET TO RAIN TRANSITION SUN
MORNING.  FOR PKB...THIS SNOW / TRANSITION IS CODED FOR 09-16Z SUN
WITH MVFR VSBY AND CIGS.  VSBY BECOMES VFR AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES
SUN AFTERNOON...AND CIGS MAY ALSO CLIMB ABOVE 3 KFT FOR A MAINLY
VFR AFTERNOON.  FOR CKB...THE TIMING IF 12-16Z BUT WITH SNOW
POSSIBLY BRINGING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR.  FOR EKN...THE SNOW /
TRANSITION TIME IS 14-17Z WITH MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS.  CKB AND EKN
WILL ALSO SEE IMPROVEMENT SUN AFTERNOON AS THE RAIN DIMINISHES.

SOUTHERN SITES HTS...CRW AND BKW WILL HAVE VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH ALTOCU...ALTHOUGH AN MVFR STRATOCU DECK COULD BRIEFLY SNEAK AS
FAR SE AS CRW BEFORE DAWN SUN MORNING.

THE CHANCE FOR RAIN STARTS TO INCREASE QUICKLY FROM W TO E LATE
SUN...AS THE COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM
THE W.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME S ON SUN AND
FRESHEN TO NEAR 10 KTS...AND BECOME A BIT GUSTY ON THE MOUNTAIN
RIDGES...SUN AFTERNOON.  UP N FROM PKB TO CKB...SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN
LIGHT AND EVEN BACK TO SE AGAIN LATE IN THE DAY.  MODERATE NW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT BECOMES LIGHT TO MODERATE W SUN MORNING...AND THEN
LIGHT TO MODERATE SW SUN AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY ON...DESCENDING TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS AND DEGREE
AND DURATION OF WORST CONDITIONS MAY VARY.  TIMING OF PRECIP TYPE
TRANSITIONS MAY ALSO VARY AND...WHILE NOT EXPLICITLY CODED UP...FZRA
IS A POSSIBILITY PKB...CKB...EKN...AND EVEN A SLIGHT CHANCE FREEZING
RAIN EARLY SUN MORNING HTS AND CRW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW LATE OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND THE HIGHER WV MOUNTAINOUS
TERRAIN....LINGERING IN AND NEAR THE WV MOUNTAINS INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 312057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAWN AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 312057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
339 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH
OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. MUCH COLDER AIR BLOWS IN ON MONDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD EASTERN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH FAST FLOW...AND FEW
OPPORTUNITIES TO ACCESS THE GULF OF MEXICO MOISTURE.

WEAK WARM AIR ADVECTION ONGOING TUESDAY NIGHT...WILL TRY TO BRING
SOME 20/30 POPS A BIT FASTER SOUTH BY DAWN WEDNESDAY INTO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

12Z GFS A BIT MORE AGGRESSIVE WITH THE MOISTURE  MOVING UP THE OHIO
VALLEY WEDNESDAY ALONG THAT FRONTAL BOUNDARY. ECMWF CERTAINLY NOT AS
MOIST. FOR NOW...WILL KEEP POPS IN CHANCE CATEGORY WITH FRONT
WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

HAVE COLDER AIR BLOWING SOUTH AGAIN OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY.  WENT COLDER THAN OUR PREVIOUS FORECAST.

DRYING AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT THRU FRIDAY NIGHT.

IN THE FAST FLOW...NEXT SYSTEM COULD ARRIVE BY LATE DAY 7.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAWN AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ













000
FXUS61 KRLX 311947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING
INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAWN AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL/KTB
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 311947
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
247 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM ADVECTION PRECIP EARLY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES
NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING
INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO STAY WITH THE CURRENT WARM WEDGE SOLUTION OVER
MUCH OF CWA. GENERALLY USED A BLEND OF SREF AND GFS FOR POPS. ONLY
REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO INCLUDE A DRY SLOT ACROSS MUCH OF THE
CWA FOR SUNDAY.

HAVE WARM ADVECTION PRECIP MOVING IN PRE-DAWN SUNDAY MORNING.
TEMPS...AND THUS PRECIP TYPE FOR THIS TIME ARE A LITTLE TRICKY...AND
HINGE ON HOW QUICKLY THE CLOUDS THICKEN UP AND STOP A RADIATIVE
COOLING TONIGHT. ON TOP OF THAT...DRY AIR MAY WET BULB SOME. ENDED
UP WITH A FAIRLY BRIEF PERIOD OF WINTRY MIX ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN AND
WESTERN ZONES...WITH SNOW FARTHER NORTH. WILL MENTION POTENTIAL OF
VERY LIGHT ICING IN HWO. THIS IS NOT REALLY A SITUATION LIKE LAST
FREEZING RAIN EVENT EARLIER THIS WEEK WHERE TEMPS SURGED INTO THE
UPPER 30S WITH ROADS STILL BELOW FREEZING. ROAD SURFACES TODAY
SHOULD BE RELATIVELY WARM DUE TO SUNSHINE...AND SHOULD NOT GET AS
COLD OVERNIGHT AS CLOUDS MOVE IN. STILL...CAN ENVISION SOME PATCHY
SLICK SPOTS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. FARTHER NORTH...IT SHOULD BE
MAINLY SNOW POSSIBLY MIXED WITH SOME SLEET THROUGH MID MORNING.
850MB TEMPS CONTINUE TO WARM SUNDAY...AND HAVE RAIN ACROSS ENTIRE
FORECAST AREA BY MID AFTERNOON...EXCEPT FOR JUST A COUPLE OF THE
HIGHEST SPOTS IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WITH THE DRY SLOT...AND
SOME DOWNSLOPE COMPONENT TO THE WIND...REDUCED CLOUD COVER IN
EASTERN LOWLANDS...AND BOOSTED AFTERNOON HIGHS ROUGHLY 5 DEGREES
OVER PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR THIS SAME AREA.

IN COORDINATION WITH SHORT TERM FORECASTER...GOING WITH A WINTER
WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO WITH 1-3
INCHES OF SNOW SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN ALSO COVERING THE SNOW THAT
FALLS SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WILL ALSO CONTINUE THE BUFFER ZONE
AROUND THE ADVISORY CURRENTLY IN THE HWO...ALLOWING FOR SOME SHIFT
IN LOW TRACK AND INHERENT THERMAL PROFILE CHANGES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE STARTING TO MOVE THROUGH OHIO VALLEY REGION AT THE
START OF THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. BASED ON THE NORTHERN PATH OF THE
LOW...WILL SEE A WARM SURGE OF AIR ACROSS THE AREA...WITH THE BULK
OF PRECIPITATION STARTING OUT AS RAIN ACROSS THE AREA. THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY MOVE OFF TO THE NORTH AND EAST OF THE AREA LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT/EARLY MONDAY...WITH MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHING INTO THE AREA
BEHIND THE LOW...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER FROM RAIN...TO SNOW.
SOUTHEAST OHIO WILL SEE A CHANGE OVER FIRST...WITH CHANGE OVER FROM
RAIN TO SNOW GENERALLY AFTER 2 AM. MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA
LOWLANDS WONT START TO SEE A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW UNTIL AFTER DAWN ON
MONDAY. AS THE COLDER AIR IS FINALLY ABLE TO WORK ITS WAY IN ENOUGH
FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW...THE BULK OF MOISTURE WILL GRADUALLY EXIT
WITH THE EXIT OF THE LOW TO THE EAST. AS A RESULT...FIGURING ONLY
LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH GENERALLY 2 TO 4
INCHES POSSIBLE ACROSS PERRY COUNTY....WITH 1 TO 3 IN MORGAN
COUNTY...AND AROUND AN INCH FOR THE REMAINDER OF SOUTHEAST OHIO.
EXPECT MUCH OF THE WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS TO RECEIVE AROUND AN INCH
OR LESS...EXCEPT NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA LOWLAND COUNTIES SUCH AS
CLARKSBURG AREA...WHERE A GOOD INCH OR TWO IS POSSIBLE. MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES COULD EASILY GET 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ON NW FACING SLOPES. THE SNOW WILL TRANSITION
FROM A HEAVY WET SNOW...TO A LIGHTER FLUFFIER SNOW AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES ON MONDAY AS 850MB -16C AIR RUSHES INTO THE REGION. THIS
SHOULD ALLOW FOR ACCUMULATIONS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES IN
LINGERING UPSLOPE FLOW.

WE WILL ISSUE A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR PERRY AND MORGAN
COUNTIES THROUGH MONDAY MORNING. WILL KEEP AN EYE ON THE POTENTIAL
FOR MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR TUESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS...AND
MODERATING TEMPERATURES.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAWN AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM SUNDAY TO 10 AM EST MONDAY
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...MZ/SL/KTB
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 311730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1200 PM UPDATE... WHILE NOT FULLY DONE WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE PRELIMINARILY REDUCED POPS AND WARMED TEMPS SOME
ON SUNDAY AS WARM WEDGE AND DRY SLOT IMPACT EASTERN CWA...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WESTERN CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR
SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM
THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN
STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WV
DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS STILL IN
EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAW AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 311730
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1230 PM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1200 PM UPDATE... WHILE NOT FULLY DONE WITH AFTERNOON FORECAST
PACKAGE...HAVE PRELIMINARILY REDUCED POPS AND WARMED TEMPS SOME
ON SUNDAY AS WARM WEDGE AND DRY SLOT IMPACT EASTERN CWA...AND TO A
LESSER EXTENT WESTERN CWA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR
SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK NORTHEAST FROM
THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.
THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN
STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF THE LOW AND ITS
ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD AIR WILL RUSH IN
BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY TRANSITIONING TO
ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW AMOUNTS EXPECTED
PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS OF WV
DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE COLD AIR
ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS STILL IN
EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT WIND TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES LATE TONIGHT...WITH WARM FRONT BRINGING LOWER
CLOUDS BY PRE-DAW AND IS POSSIBLE ALONG AND NORTH OF I-64. BEST
CHANCE OF IFR WITH THIS SNOW WILL BE AT NORTHERN TAF SITES DURING
THE EARLY TO MID MORNING. PRECIP CHANGES TO RAIN FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH THROUGH THE MORNING. CANNOT RULE OUT PATCHES OF FREEZING
RAIN EARLY ON...MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST OHIO.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF DROPS IN FLIGHT CONDITIONS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...LINGERING IN THE
MOUNTAINS MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 311416
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
916 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE... NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR
SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW











000
FXUS61 KRLX 311014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 311014
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A SUNNY BUT CHILLY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 310921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
421 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE
IS STILL LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND
CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP
SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 01/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 310921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
421 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN TRANSITIONING INTO WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE
IS STILL LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SOUTHWEST FLOW STRENGTHENS SUNDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LOWS CENTER WILL TRACK
NORTHEAST FROM THE LOWER OH VALLEY INTO NORTHERN WV SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY. THIS TRACK WILL BRING WARMER AIR TO THE AREA
PROVIDING LIQUID PCPN STARTING SUNDAY EVENING. ONCE THE CENTER OF
THE LOW AND ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES NORTHEAST...VERY COLD
AIR WILL RUSH IN BEHIND IT...PRODUCING PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...ACCOMPANIED BY SLEET AND EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO ALL SNOW. THIS WARM AIR HAVE DECREASE THE SNOW
AMOUNTS EXPECTED PREVIOUSLY OVER THE NORTH CENTRAL AND NORTHEAST
MOUNTAINS OF WV DURING THE EVENT. MOISTURE WILL DIMINISH ONCE THE
COLD AIR ARRIVES...BUT WILL BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE 4 TO 6 INCHES
ACROSS PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OH WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH IS
STILL IN EFFECT. LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS COULD BE POSSIBLE WITH
THIS STORM.

MODELS INDICATE THAT STRONG COLD ADVECTION WILL OCCUR BEHIND THIS
SYSTEM WITH H850 TEMPS DROPPING FROM 2C AT THE CENTER OF THE LOW
BY 06Z MONDAY TO MINUS 12C BY 18Z MONDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT A NON
DIURNAL TREND WITH TEMPERATURES STEADY OR INCREASING SUNDAY NIGHT
AND DECREASING DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON.

ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...PCPN WILL START AS RAIN...BUT AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN...PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN ARE SUGGESTED BY BUFKIT
SOUNDING WITH A WARM NOSE FEATURE SPREADING NORTH. HOWEVER...COLD
AIR FILLS IN THE WARM NOSE TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO ALL SNOW BY
12Z MONDAY. 1 TO 2 INCHES OF SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 4 OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY.
ADDITIONAL HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK OF
THE LOWS CENTER.

MINOR CHANGES NOTED TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND
CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP
SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 01/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 310614
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE
IS STILL LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND
CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP
SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 310614
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
114 AM EST SAT JAN 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY FOR A COLD AND CLEAR SKY DAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY
WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /TODAY AND TONIGHT/...
WIND CHILL VALUES NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING...OPTED TO NOT PUT UP AN ADVISORY AS AREAL COVERAGE
IS STILL LACKING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TODAY GIVING CLEAR SKIES BUT BELOW AVERAGE
HIGHS.

THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL BEGIN TO KNOCK ON OUR DOORSTEP GOING INTO
TONIGHT...BUT SHOULD STILL BE FAR ENOUGH WEST TO ONLY SLIGHTLY
INCREASE POPS TOWARDS SUNDAY MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE AND LIGHT WINDS WILL PROVIDE A VFR DAY TODAY SOME MVFR
CIGS MAY LINGER IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THERE IS SOME CONCERN
FOR THE OCCASIONAL DROP TO MVFR CONDITIONS SINCE NIGHT IS COLD AND
CLEAR WITH WINDS DIMINISHING...HOWEVER...ICE CRYSTALS SHOULD HELP
SUCK UP ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE. SO NOT GOING WITH MVFR IN TAFS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: MORNING MVFR CIGS POSSIBLE AFTER DAYBREAK
SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 01/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY MORNING
     FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 310012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE MVFR STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BY SAT MORNING.  THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR TO HIGH IFR VSBY AT EKN DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST.  MVFR STRATOCU THERE SHOULD BREAK UP
BY ABOUT 06Z.  BKW MAY ALSO SEE MVFR STRATOCU THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN MVFR DAY ON SAT.

GUSTY NW SFC FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SAT MORNING.  OTHERWISE LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TEMPO IFR SNOW FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FCST AT
EKN MAY NOT HAPPEN.  TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO OVERNIGHT.  THE MORNING CU EFFECT MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 310012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF TONIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.
ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM PASSES NORTH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN AND LIMITED WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE...
REDUCED CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT INTO SAT...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UPSLOPE MVFR STRATOCU AND SNOW SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE OVERNIGHT AS
HIGH PRESSURE CUTS OFF THE LOW LEVEL NW FLOW BY SAT MORNING.  THE
SNOW SHOWERS MAY BRING MVFR TO HIGH IFR VSBY AT EKN DURING THE FIRST
COUPLE OF HOURS OF THE FCST.  MVFR STRATOCU THERE SHOULD BREAK UP
BY ABOUT 06Z.  BKW MAY ALSO SEE MVFR STRATOCU THROUGH ABOUT
MIDNIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL PROVIDE AN MVFR DAY ON SAT.

GUSTY NW SFC FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH THROUGH
SAT MORNING.  OTHERWISE LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT W TO SW
THROUGHOUT THE AREA BY SAT AFTERNOON.  FLOW ALOFT WILL REMAIN
MODERATE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TEMPO IFR SNOW FIRST COUPLE OF HOURS OF FCST AT
EKN MAY NOT HAPPEN.  TIMING OF MVFR STRATOCU OVERNIGHT MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO OVERNIGHT.  THE MORNING CU EFFECT MAY
RESULT IN MVFR CIGS AFTER DAYBREAK SAT...MAINLY N.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN AND SUN NT IN SE OHIO AND THE
NRN WV MOUNTAINS...SPREADING BRIEFLY ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE
AREA MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 302105
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM LATE SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 301928
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
226 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A QUIET PERIOD FOR THE MOST PART THIS PERIOD WITH NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT PREVAILING. MODELS FORECAST A CLIPPER SYSTEM AND ASSOCIATED
COLD FRONT TO DROP SOUTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. AHEAD OF THE FRONT...A SOUTHERLY FLOW AND SOME SUNSHINE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY WILL BRING TEMPERATURES UP TO NEAR NORMAL BY
WEDNESDAY. THIS SYSTEM LACKS DYNAMICS AND MOISTURE SO THAT JUST A
FEW RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS ARE FORECAST TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...ANOTHER VERY COLD AIRMASS WILL FOLLOW THE
FRONT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK...WITH TEMPERATURES WELL
BELOW NORMAL AGAIN. A FEW SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY...BUT NOT MUCH IS EXPECTED AS UPSLOPE AND MOISTURE IS
LIMITED.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301914
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301914
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
214 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH WINTRY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
STILL A COMPLICATED WEATHER PATTERN IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD...BUT
MODELS ARE GRADUALLY TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER SOLUTION. GFS MODEL
CONTINUES TO TAKE THE TRACK OF THE LOW FARTHER SOUTH...RESULTING IN
A COLDER SOLUN THAN NAM OR CANADIAN. WITH THE OVERALL TREND TOWARDS
WARMER SOLUTION...LEANED A LITTLE MORE TOWARDS THE NAM THAN GFS
TEMPERATURE WISE DURING THE PERIOD. THIS...WITH THE LOW PATH THROUGH
OHIO...WILL RESULT IN WARM WEDGE EFFECTS ACROSS MUCH OF THE WV AND
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO LOWLANDS...THUS LIMITING SNOWFALL AMOUNTS.
AT THIS POINT...ONLY NORTHERN BORDERS OF THE CWA WILL REMAIN MOSTLY
SNOW OR A WINTRY MIX...ALONG WITH MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

THIS LOOKS TO BE A DECENT QPF EVENT...WITH STRONG LLJ
DEVELOPING...AIDING IN MOISTURE TRANSPORT TO THE REGION. GENERALLY
HAVE 0.7 TO 0.9 INCHES QPF FIGURED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST
OHIO...WITH 0.5 TO 0.7 INCHES ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3 OF CWA.

THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL GRADUALLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH AND
EAST SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH A GRADUAL CHANGE OVER TO A WINTRY
MIX...THEN ALL SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO MONDAY AS COLDER AIR RUSHES IN ON
THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW. HAVE FALLING TEMPERATURES ON MONDAY/NON
DIURNAL.

AT THIS POINT...TAKING THE NORTHERLY TRACK/WARMER SOLUTION INTO
ACCOUNT...HAVE DECIDED TO ISSUE A WINTER STORM WATCH FOR PERRY AND
MORGAN COUNTIES IN OHIO...IN EFFECT FROM 06Z SUNDAY TO 12Z MONDAY.
AT THIS POINT...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 6 ACROSS MORGAN COUNTY...WITH A
GENERAL 4 TO 8 ACROSS PERRY. THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF ATHENS AND
WASHINGTON COUNTIES COULD SEE WARNING CRITERIA...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT IS ISOLATED TO THE NORTHERN PORTIONS...AND NOT COUNTY
WIDE. HOWEVER...IT IS LOOKING LIKE MUCH OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...AND SOME
ADJACENT WV COUNTIES WILL AT LEAST SEE ADVISORY CRITERIA...WHICH
WILL BE HIGHLIGHTED IN THE HWO...AND ISSUED IN LATER SHIFTS IF
NECESSARY.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301910 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE CAA BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH CROSSED THIS
MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT.
WILL BE A BLUSTERY NIGHT. HAVE WIND CHILL VALUES IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS OF AROUND -5...AND EVEN A TOUCH LOWER ON HIGHER PEAKS.
HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL DAY WITH
BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE SHOULD HELP EASE
THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 301901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH
CROSSED THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. ENOUGH WIND REMAINS IN POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES TO LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AT AND BELOW -10F...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH MID-SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL
DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP EASE THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301901
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
201 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW TAPERING OFF TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES ACROSS THE LOWLANDS.
SNOW SHOWERS WILL LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
TAPERING OFF AS FLURRIES AS WELL. HAVE RATHER GUSTY WINDS ACROSS
MUCH OF CWA IN THE COLD ADVECTION BEHIND ARCTIC FRONT WHICH
CROSSED THIS MORNING. THESE WINDS WILL BEGIN TO WANE FROM WEST TO
EAST TONIGHT. ENOUGH WIND REMAINS IN POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES TO LEAD TO WIND CHILLS AT AND BELOW -10F...AND WILL GO
WITH A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THROUGH MID-SATURDAY MORNING IN THESE
COUNTIES. HIGH PRESSURE AROUND FOR SATURDAY. WILL STILL BE A COOL
DAY WITH BELOW AVERAGE HIGHS...BUT A GOOD AMOUNT OF SUNSHINE
SHOULD HELP EASE THE CHILL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO TWEAKS HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN
A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1242 PM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO TWEAKS HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN
A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT...FLURRIES CONTINUING ACROSS MUCH OF
FORECAST AREA. SNOW SHOWERS STILL HANGING ON IN THE MOUNTAINS WITH
SOME MVFR TO IFR. MVFR CLOUDS MAY REFORM ACROSS THE NORTH THIS
AFTERNOON. GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TODAY...SUBSIDING SOME TONIGHT
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WHILE LINGERING IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. VRB
CONDITIONS EXPECTED TOMORROW WITH SOME SCATTERED CLOUDS 2000-3000
FT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND HIGHER CIRRUS CLOUDS SOUTH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF IMPROVING CIG AND VIS MAY VARY.
GUSTY WINDS MAY COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
931 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO TWEAKS HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN
A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301431
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
931 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...EXTENDED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ALSO TWEAKS HOURLY GRIDS BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO
THE AREA THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS
GOING ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN
GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES
OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5
INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN
A BIT MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 301010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
510 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 301010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
510 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

WINDS WILL DIE DOWN TONIGHT AS SNOW SHOWERS DISSIPATE AS HIGH
PRESSURE BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300905
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 01/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300905
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE PROVIDES DRY BUT COLD WEATHER SATURDAY. THIS BRINGS
LONG PERIODS OF SUNSHINE WITH TEMPERATURES REACHING THE MID 30S TO
40 ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND NORTHEAST KY...RANGING TO
THE LOWER 30S ELSEWHERE.

A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST SATURDAY NIGHT
INTO SUNDAY. AS IT GETS CLOSER...IT WILL PUMP WARMER AIR TO THE
REGION MAKING THE ONSET OF PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID. CURRENTLY
MODELS TRACKS ITS CENTER ACROSS WV...SUGGESTING LONGER PERIODS OF
RAIN PER WARMER TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER...WWD THINKING ON A FURTHER
SOUTH TRACK WHICH WILL PUT THE AREA IN A THREAT FOR SIGNIFICANT
ACCUMULATING SNOW...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OH...WV...AND THE WV NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. WWD SUGGEST
THESE AREAS COULD RECEIVE 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW BY MONDAY MORNING.
AT THIS TIME...WILL WAIT FOR MODELS CONSISTENCY ON THE TRACK OF
THIS LOW PRESSURE BEFORE ISSUING ANY HEADLINES. HOWEVER...KEPT
MENTIONING IN THE HWO.

WENT CLOSER TO THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MINOR TWEAKS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 01/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 300632
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 01/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 300632
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EST FRI JAN 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
SNOW WILL FALL ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY WITH LIGHT
ACCUMULATIONS. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING
SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
COLD FRONT BRINGING PERIODS OF SNOW AND GUSTY WINDS TO THE AREA
THIS MORNING. NW FLOW WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS GOING ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA FOR MUCH OF THE DAY. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS
SHOULD SEE GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...MOST OF
WHICH SHOULD FALL THIS MORNING. 3 TO 5 INCHES IS EXPECTED IN THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL CONTINUE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

WINDS SHOULD REMAIN GUSTY THROUGHOUT THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE AREA WILL BRING SNOW TODAY WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CONDITIONS. PERIODS OF IFR ARE EXPECTED IN HEAVIER
SNOW BANDS WHICH SHOULD LAST A FEW HOURS. FLIGHT CONDITIONS
IMPROVE IN THE AFTERNOON...EXCEPT AT MOUNTAINOUS TAF SITES WHERE
MVFR WILL LIKELY PREDOMINATE. ALSO...GUSTY WINDS THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR. THE GUSTY WINDS WILL COME AND GO.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 01/30/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS
AND IN THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN
LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 300016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REFORM AS THE COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING THE AREA...HAVING CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER BY 23Z.  THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPSLOPE EVENT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL BE BY 03Z IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREV DISCN...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAVING REACHED THE OHIO RIVER 22Z HTS AND 23Z PKB AND
CRW 00Z...SHOULD REACH CKB AND BKW 01-02Z AND EKN 02-03Z.  THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS FOR AN HOUR OR LESS INITIALLY.  CIGS WERE DROPPING TO
MVFR EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LOWER FARTHER OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 05Z...A
BIT SOONER EKN AND A BIT LATER BKW.  IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI.

CLOUDS BREAK UP AND LIFT SOMEWHAT FRI...ALLOWING FOR VFR AT TIMES AT
LEAST IN THE LOWLANDS.

W TO NW SFC WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MODERATE NW
OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS SO THROUGH FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRI NT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 300016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
716 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW OVERNIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY IS LIKELY TO BRING ACCUMULATING SNOW TO THE AREA.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
FINE-TUNED POPS TO ACCOUNT FOR DEARTH OF PRECIPITATION THIS EVENING.
PRECIPITATION WAS ALREADY STARTING TO REFORM AS THE COLD FRONT WAS
ENTERING THE AREA...HAVING CROSSED THE OHIO RIVER BY 23Z.  THE
PRECIPITATION WILL EVOLVE INTO AN UPSLOPE EVENT OVERNIGHT ONCE THE
FRONT PASSES...WHICH WILL BE BY 03Z IN THE MOUNTAINS.

PREV DISCN...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A COLD FRONT HAVING REACHED THE OHIO RIVER 22Z HTS AND 23Z PKB AND
CRW 00Z...SHOULD REACH CKB AND BKW 01-02Z AND EKN 02-03Z.  THE
FRONTAL PASSAGE IS ACCOMPANIED BY A WIND SHIFT TO THE W WITH GUSTS
20 TO 25 KTS FOR AN HOUR OR LESS INITIALLY.  CIGS WERE DROPPING TO
MVFR EVEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT AND WILL LOWER FARTHER OVERNIGHT.

LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THEN CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT...MOSTLY AN HOUR OR SO EITHER SIDE OF 05Z...A
BIT SOONER EKN AND A BIT LATER BKW.  IFR AT TIMES IN SNOW SHOWERS IN
THE MOUNTAINS LATE OVERNIGHT INTO FRI.

CLOUDS BREAK UP AND LIFT SOMEWHAT FRI...ALLOWING FOR VFR AT TIMES AT
LEAST IN THE LOWLANDS.

W TO NW SFC WILL BECOME GUSTY AGAIN OVERNIGHT AND REMAIN SO THROUGH
MUCH OF THE DAY FRI.  MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT BECOMES MODERATE NW
OVERNIGHT AND REMAINS SO THROUGH FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CIGS/VSBYS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY IFR OVERNIGHT AND FRI WHICH SHOULD BE
MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  THE GUSTY WINDS WILL ALSO TEND TO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRI NT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN SNOW SUN INTO MON IN THE NRN LOWLANDS AND IN
THE MOUNTAINS...AND LATE SUN NT INTO MON IN THE SRN LOWLANDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 292001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 292001
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A SNOW SCENARIO CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY AS MODELS
HAVE LOW PRESSURE SLIDING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...IN THE
EASTERLY FLOW THAT SETS UP NORTH OF THE FORECASTED LOW TRACK...WE
WILL HAVE TO WATCH FOR A MODEST WARM WEDGE JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SUNDAY EVENING WITH A WEAK INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH JUST
WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. MOST OF THE MODELS ARE HINTING AT THIS. SO
FOR NOW...WE CONTINUE TO PAINT A RAIN/SNOW MIX OVER THE FAR SOUTH
SUNDAY EVENING...BUT THEN QUICKLY TURN IT ALL TO SNOW AS THE WINDS
TURN NORTHERLY. ELSEWHERE...A GENERAL SNOWFALL IS FORECAST. SNOW
TOTAL ACCUMULATIONS FOR THE ENTIRE EVENT MAY REACH 3 TO 5 INCHES
ACROSS THE NORTH...AND 1 TO 3 INCHES ACROSS THE SOUTH. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WELL BELOW NORMAL.

DRY AND COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY WITH
CONTINUED BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

FOR WEDNESDAY...LOOKS LIKE ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL PASS
THROUGH...BUT ENOUGH WARMING MAY BE DRAWN NORTHWARD AHEAD OF IT FOR
MOSTLY RAIN SHOWERS. SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER COLD HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN
THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 291845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
145 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ARRIVES PASSES THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY. ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.


&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
RAIN...ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT...ALMOST OUT OF NE CWA WITH NICE
DRY SLOT IN PLACE ACROSS CWA. IN FACT...EVEN SEEING SOME SUN
ACROSS SOUTHERN FORECAST AREA AND TEMPS POPPING INTO THE 50S IN
SPOTS. AT 1 PM A COLD FRONT WAS WORKING ITS WAY THROUGH WESTERN
OHIO...AND WILL SLIDE THROUGH OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND APPALACHIANS
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. THIS WILL BRING PRECIP BACK
IN...INITIALLY STARTING AS RAIN...BUT CHANGING OVER TO SNOW
THROUGH THE NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WORKS IN. NW FLOW TAKE OVER LATE
TONIGHT...LINGERING THROUGH FRIDAY. THIS WILL KEEP UPSLOPE SNOW
SHOWERS GOING ACROSS EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS FOR MUCH OF
THE DAY FRIDAY. MODELS ALSO HINTING AT AN ENHANCED BAND OF
MOISTURE COMING OFF LAKE MICHIGAN FLOWING ACROSS TRI-STATE REGION
THROUGH MID MORNING FRIDAY...SO HELD ONTO POPS THERE LONGER THAN
FARTHER UP THE OHIO RIVER. IN GENERAL...THE LOWLANDS SHOULD SEE
GENERALLY A HALF TO 1.5 INCHES OF NEW SNOW...WITH 3 TO 5 INCHES IN
THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...AND EVEN A BIT MORE AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. WILL ALSO HAVE PRETTY GUSTY WINDS...WITH SOME BLOWING
AND DRIFTING SNOW POSSIBLE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. WILL CONTINUE
WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AS IT IS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEATHER STARTS OUT DRY...BUT COLD SATURDAY MORNING...AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE REGION...CREATING A GRADUALLY CLEARING
SKY...AND CALM CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE LOWLANDS. WILL STILL
BE SOME GUSTY CONDITIONS FRIDAY NIGHT...MAINLY ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN...AND 30 TO 40 KT
LLJ.

SOME MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES EXPECTED SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AS
SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING SYSTEM...WHICH
WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION BACK INTO THE REGION FOR SUNDAY. STILL
SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXACT PATH OF THE STORM...BUT AT THIS
POINT...IT LOOKS LIKE A MOSTLY SNOW SCENARIO...ALTHOUGH SOUTHERN
ZONES WILL SEE A PERIOD OF RAIN OR A RAIN SNOW MIX TO START. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW ARE EXPECTED...PARTICULARLY ACROSS NORTHERN
ZONES...WHERE SNOW IS MORE CERTAIN. WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN
HIGHLIGHT IN THE HWO.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291721
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT AND CONNECTED LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER AS OF 9 AM. AIR TEMPS ARE SURGING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP...HOWEVER STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
ICY CONDITIONS AS ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. WITH
SOME WET BULBING ALOFT...ALSO EXPECT SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...AND GO WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA DETAILING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO
TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE
ON THE SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291721
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1221 PM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT AND CONNECTED LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER AS OF 9 AM. AIR TEMPS ARE SURGING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP...HOWEVER STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
ICY CONDITIONS AS ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. WITH
SOME WET BULBING ALOFT...ALSO EXPECT SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...AND GO WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA DETAILING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO
TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE
ON THE SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
BAND OF MAINLY RAIN SHOWERS MOVING INTO THE MOUNTAINS AS WARM
FRONT PASSES. HAVE SEEN MOSTLY VFR WITH THIS...ALTHOUGH COULD GET
SOME MVFR AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP IN THE WARM SECTOR...ALONG WITH THE CLOUDS
SCATTERING OUT FOR A BIT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES THIS EVENING
PASSING OVERNIGHT WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW. HAVE MVFR TO IFR
WITH THE SNOW AND REMAINING FAIRLY WINDY. LOWER FLIGHT CONDITIONS
WILL STICK AROUND IN THE EASTERN LOWLANDS AND MOUNTAINS THROUGH
MUCH OF FRIDAY...BUT SHOULD SEE SOME IMPROVEMENTS ACROSS FAR WEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS MAY LINGER IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. IFR
CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY WITH RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
918 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT AND CONNECTED LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER AS OF 9 AM. AIR TEMPS ARE SURGING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP...HOWEVER STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
ICY CONDITIONS AS ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. WITH
SOME WET BULBING ALOFT...ALSO EXPECT SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...AND GO WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA DETAILING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO
TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE
ON THE SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
THIN BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING
IN SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 291418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
918 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...WARM FRONT AND CONNECTED LIGHT RAIN NEAR THE OHIO
RIVER AS OF 9 AM. AIR TEMPS ARE SURGING INTO THE UPPER 30S AND 40S
JUST AHEAD OF THE PRECIP...HOWEVER STILL GETTING SOME REPORTS OF
ICY CONDITIONS AS ROAD SURFACE TEMPS ARE SLOWER TO RESPOND. WITH
SOME WET BULBING ALOFT...ALSO EXPECT SLEET MIXING IN ACROSS
NORTHERN HALF OF CWA THROUGH MID MORNING. WILL CONTINUE WITH
CURRENT FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY...AND GO WITH SPECIAL WEATHER
STATEMENTS OUTSIDE OF THAT AREA DETAILING POTENTIAL FOR BRIEF
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO
TIME OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE
ON THE SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
THIN BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING
IN SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 291033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO TIME
OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THE
SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
THIN BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING
IN SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY













000
FXUS61 KRLX 291033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
514 AM EST THU JAN 29 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH TODAY. A COLD FRONT
ARRIVES THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. UPSLOPE SNOW TONIGHT INTO
FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A BAND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MOVING ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. THIS BAND WILL ARRIVE THIS MORNING IN PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEAST OHIO WHERE TEMPERATURES WILL BE VERY CLOSE TO FREEZING.
WITH ROAD SURFACE TEMPERATURES READING IN THE MID 20S...SOME
FREEZING RAIN COULD OCCUR EVEN IT READINGS ARE SLIGHTLY ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL EXPAND THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO INCLUDE VINTON
AND ATHENS COUNTIES. MES NAM SOUNDING ALSO SHOW SOME CONCERN FOR
BRIEF FREEZING RAIN/DRIZZLE IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY WHEN THIS BAND
ARRIVES EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WILL HOLD OFF IN THIS AREA DUE TO TIME
OF DAY AND LIMITED DURATION...BUT WILL HAVE TO KEEP AND EYE ON THE
SITUATION.

A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING
MUCH COLDER AIR. IT APPEARS THAT MOST PRECIPITATION WITH THE FRONT
WILL BE POST FRONTAL. RAIN SHOULD CHANGE OVER TO SNOW DURING THE
NIGHT AND START A DECENT UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
BUSY MOPPING UP ONE STORM AND BRINGING IN ANOTHER ON THIS GRAVEYARD
SHIFT...

ITS ALL DOWNHILL AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...AS CAA ON GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
ALLOW FOR FALLING TEMPS THRU THE DAY. SO...HAVE HIGHS AT
12Z...GENERALLY IN THE MID 20S SE OH/N WV TO AROUND 30 SOUTH. TEMPS
WILL FALL AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...INTO THE LOW TO MID 20S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS...AND TEENS IN THE MOUNTAINS. WINDS WILL BE
GUSTY...ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN WHERE SOME 30 TO 35 KT
GUSTS WILL BE REALIZED. AS SUCH...WIND CHILLS WILL ALSO TAKE A HIT
BUT NOT EXPECTING CRITERIA TO BE MET OVER THE N MOUNTAINS.

AS FOR SNOW...DESPITE A SHRINKING MOISTURE COLUMN...CAA WILL ALLOW
FOR A COLDER CLOUD LAYER AS THE MORNING PROGRESSES. SOUNDINGS BEAR
THIS OUT WITH SHRINKING CLOUD LAYER COOLING TO -15 TO -20C IN THE
MORNING. THIS COMBINED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY SHOULD ALLOW
FOR CONVECTIVE OVERTURNING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA. STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS SUGGEST SOME ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN EARLY ACROSS S
OH AND NE KY. MODELS ARE NOT EXCITED ABOUT QPF POTENTIAL
THOUGH...NONETHELESS...FELT PRUDENT IN GOING DETERMINISTICALLY HIGH
WITH POPS IN THE MORNING. WITH RATIOS QUICKLY DROPPING INTO THE -20
TO -25C RANGE...THE FLUFF FACTOR MAY PRODUCE SOME COATINGS TO ONE
INCHES OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS...HAVE
ANYWHERE FROM 2 TO 6 IN THE N MOUNTAINS /DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION/ TO
1 TO 2 FURTHER S DOWN THE MOUNTAIN CHAIN INTO SW VA. IT WILL BE
CLOSE AS TO WHETHER ANY 12HR PERIOD MEETS CRITERIA OVER THE N
MOUNTAINS. SINCE THERE WILL BE SOME BLOWING AND DRIFTING OF SNOW TO
COMPOUND THINGS...FELT BEST WAY TO GO WAS WITH AN ADVISORY WHICH
MATCHES WILL WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES.

THE MOISTURE COLUMN SHOULD BECOME SUFFICIENTLY SHALLOW ENOUGH TO
ALLOW A FAIR AMOUNT OF BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ACROSS THE W AND S
ZONES. HARD TO SAY IF N MOUNTAINS CLEAR OUT FRIDAY NIGHT GIVEN THE
THERMAL TROF GETTING PINCHED OFF. DO THINK SOME CLEARING WILL WORK
ITS WAY THRU REMAINDER OF CWA WITH A COLD NIGHT IN STORE WITH WINDS
SLACKENING OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE HIGH BUILDS IN FROM
THE W. SATURDAY WILL FEATURE MORE STRATOCU ACROSS SE OH AND N
WV...WITH THE MOST SUN NE KY/S WV/SW VA. THERE WILL BE REBOUND IN
TEMPS WITH WAA BEGINNING TO TAKE SHAPE IN THE AFTERNOON. HAVE HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE 30S...WITH SOME 20S IN THE N MOUNTAINS.

STORMS AND RUMORS OF STORMS CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY/MONDAY. THERE
CONTINUES TO BE VOLATILITY IN THE OPERATIONAL GLOBAL MODELS
REGARDING HOW MUCH PHASING OCCURS WITH N STREAM ENERGY AND ENERGY
EJECTING OUT OF SW CONUS. AS HPC NOTED...UNTIL THE N STREAM ENERGY
CAN GET INTO W CANADA...SUSPECT WAFFLING TO CONTINUE WITH JUST HOW
STRONG OF A WAVE/LOW PRESSURE THERE WILL BE. THE ENSEMBLES DONT
OFFER MUCH HELP WITH LARGE SPREADS OVER THE OH VALLEY ON THE GFS
ENSEMBLES. ALL OF THIS UNCERTAINTY RESULTED IN LITTLE CHANGE IN
PREVIOUS FORECAST EXCEPT TO GO A HAIR COOLER ACROSS THE AREA ON
SUNDAY. MAIN FEATURE FOR PRECIP SUNDAY WILL BE WARM FRONT DEVELOPING
OVER THE AREA WHICH WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE PRECIP TYPE. DO FEEL
THAT THERE IS ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO PUT A BLANKET HWO OUT GIVEN THE
UPSLOPE SNOW POTENTIAL BEHIND THIS SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE MODELS SEEM TO BE AT A CROSS ROADS ON HOW TO HANDLE THE WEEKEND
SYSTEM. MODELS AGREE IN A PACIFIC SYSTEM CUTTING UNDER THE HIGH
AMPLITUDE WESTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE AND CLOSING OFF OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN STATES EARLY IN THE WEEKEND. THE BIG QUESTION IS HOW A
NORTHERN STREAM SHORT DROPPING OVER THIS WESTERN UPPER RIDGE
INTERACTS WITH THE SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THE LATEST MODEL RUNS
CONTINUE TO DIVERGE. THE 12Z GFS PUTS ALMOST ALL ITS EMPHASIS ON
LEAVING MOST OF THE SOUTHWESTERN UPPER LOW ENERGY IN PLACE AND
DRIVING THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT ACROSS THE
AREA SUNDAY. THE 12Z NAM THRU 84 HOURS HINTS AT THIS ALSO. THE 12Z
CMC STILL WANTS TO PHASE THE TWO STREAMS AND DRIVE A STRONG LOW UP
TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES SUNDAY. THE SREF AND 00Z UKMET/EURO ARE IN
BETWEEN THESE TWO SOLUTIONS. AT THIS POINT...IN COORDINATION WITH
WPC GRAPHICS...CHOSE TO ADJUST TO A SLIGHTLY MORE SOUTHERN
TRACK...WHICH STILL CARRIES A DECENT CHUNK OF SOUTHERN ENERGY JUST
OUT AHEAD OF THE NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM. THIS SCENARIO HAS THE
SURFACE LOW MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE AREA ON
SUNDAY...THEN DRIVING A COLD FRONT RAPIDLY ACROSS THE AREA EARLY
SUNDAY NIGHT. SO...SENSIBLE WEATHER INCLUDES INITIALLY WINTRY
PRECIPITATION EARLY SUNDAY...THEN CHANGING TO RAIN DURING SUNDAY
CENTRAL AND SOUTH...AND KEEPING AT LEAST A MIX ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA NEAR THE TRACK OF THE LOW...THEN RAPIDLY
CHANGING TO SNOW ALL AREAS EARLY SUNDAY NIGHT AS THE COLD AIR RUSHES
BACK IN. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE INTO AT LEAST MONDAY MORNING
WITH A WRAPAROUND MOISTURE FIELD. SNOW SHOWERS THEN WIND DOWN FROM
WEST TO EAST DURING MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THRU MID WEEK.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY....ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. EXCEPT FOR THE BRIEF
WARMUP SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL AVERAGE WELL BELOW NORMAL FOR THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE LOWERING THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD SHOULD REMAIN VFR. A
THIN BAND OF SHOWERS/SPRINKLES WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA THIS
MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. CONDITIONS WITH THIS BAND ARE EXPECTED
TO BE VFR OR BRIEFLY MVFR.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN MOVE THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MVFR
RESTRICTIONS IN CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED ALONG AND BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT. AS COLDER AIR MOVES IN THURSDAY NIGHT...SNOW WILL DEVELOP
CAUSING SIGNIFICANT RESTRICTIONS IN VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND LOWER CLOUDS COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING
IN SNOW.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 9 PM THIS EVENING TO 1 PM EST
     FRIDAY FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-084.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY














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