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000
FXUS61 KRLX 220600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 220600
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 AM EDT MON SEP 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK...WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DRIER AIR TAKING FIRM CONTROL IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT
ROLLED THROUGH LATE SUNDAY.  THIS AND LIGHT NW SFC FLOW WILL
PRECLUDE FOG FOR THE MOST PART OVERNIGHT...BUT  A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING AND SPREADING SEWD INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT BENEATH FRONTAL
INVERSION WILL LOWER TO MVFR FIRST FEW HOURS OF FCST...ALREADY
HAVING DONE SO AT PKB.  CIGS COULD LOWER TO NEAR THE TOP END OF IFR
IN THE MOUNTAINS AROUND DAYBREAK MON.

CIGS WILL GRADUALLY CLIMB AFTER DAYBREAK MON...BUT REMAIN IN MVFR
RANGE INTO MON AFTERNOON...EVEN THROUGH THE AFTERNOON IN THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS...BEFORE BREAKING UP.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA MON NT WILL BRING CLEAR AND
CALM CONDITIONS...WITH MVFR FOG FORMING IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS BY 06Z TUE.

LIGHT NW SFC FLOW THROUGH MON WILL BECOME CALM MON NT.  LIGHT TO
MODERATE NW FLOW ALOFT WILL DIMINISH MON AND BECOME LIGHT N MON NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET AND BREAK UP OF MVFR CIGS
OVERNIGHT AND MON MAY VARY...AS MAY LOWEST VALUES INCLUDING
BORDERLINE IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS MON MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 220236
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1028 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN LATE EVENING UPDATE FROM THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE.

AT 02Z...OUR CWA IN POST FRONTAL DRY SLOT.

00Z MONDAY 850 MB TEMP AT ILN AND PBZ DOWN 5 TO 6 DEGS C FROM 12Z
SUNDAY. WE STILL EXPECT THAT STRONG COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850
MB TO FORM LOWERING STRATOCUMULUS FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT. THINKING
MAXIMUM MOISTURE/CLOUDS IN THE COOL POOL...08Z TO 16Z. LEFT SLIGHT
CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE NORTHEAST COUNTIES LATE
TONIGHT/EARLY MONDAY. CLOUDS THIN AND LIFT SLIGHTLY AFTER THAT
MAXIMUM TIME PERIOD.

DUE TO THE EARLY EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE
CONTINUED SOME FOG THERE THROUGH ABOUT 06Z..BEFORE THE DRIER AIR
INFILTRATES ALL THOSE NOOKS AND CRANNIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 220008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH
DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.  CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING
AT 00Z.

IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL
POOL...08Z TO 16Z.  LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
NORTHEAST.

EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY
EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE
FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE
DEEP VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 220008
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
808 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT IS 24 HOURS AHEAD OF THE CALENDAR...WITH THE AUTUMNAL
EQUINOX MONDAY NIGHT.

COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET SUNDAY...WITH
DEW POINT GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.  CRW DEW POINT FINALLY DROPPING
AT 00Z.

IN WAKE OF FRONT...DRY SLOT. WILL BE SLOWER INCREASING CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT IN THE COOL AIR ADVECTION AT 925 TO 850 MB...ESPECIALLY
FOR THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES. THINKING MAXIMUM MOISTURE IN THE COOL
POOL...08Z TO 16Z.  LEFT SLIGHT CHANCE OF A LIGHT SHOWER IN THE
NORTHEAST.

EVENTUALLY THE DRY AIR SHOULD WIN OUT.  HOWEVER...DUE TO THE EARLY
EVENING RAIN IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WV VALLEYS...HAVE SOME FOG THERE
FOR A TIME 00Z TO 06Z...BEFORE THE DRIER AIR INFILTRATES EVEN THOSE
DEEP VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AT SUNSET WITH DEW POINT
GRADIENT NEAR CKB TO CRW.

HAVE SOME FOG POSSIBLE IN THE DEEP SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA VALLEYS
01Z THRU 06Z DUE TO RECENT RAINS.  DEW POINTS IN THOSE VALLEYS MAY
BE SLOW TO DROP OVERNIGHT...BUT DID FIGURE THE GRADIENT WIND AND
DRIER AIR ALOFT...WILL EVENTUALLY WIN OUT...EVEN IN THOSE DEEPER
VALLEYS.

DRY SLOP IN WAKE OF FRONT WITH MOSTLY SCATTERED CLOUDS 4 TO 6 THSD
FT. AS COOLER AIR ADVECTS IN...WAS SLOWER IN DROPPING CEILINGS IN
THE COOL POOL.  THINK THE MAXIMUM COVERAGE OF CEILINGS NEAR 2 TO 3
THSD FT WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT OVER WV MOUNTAINS 08Z TO 15Z MONDAY.
FEW SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS POSSIBLE CKB TO EKN VCNTY DURING THAT
TIME.

18Z MONDAY TO 00Z TUESDAY...CEILINGS LIFTING AND SCATTERED OUT AT 2
TO 4 THSD FT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS DO NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  DEW POINT AT CRW DOES NOT LOWER AS QUICKLY AS EXPECTED WITH
SOME FOG FORMING BY 06Z.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 09/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IN THE CHILLY AIR...LOCAL IFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 211836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE STRONG COLD FRONT BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE
WEEK WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS WELL DEFINED ON THE SATELLITE IMAGERY/SURFACE PLOTS AS
IT CUTS THROUGH SOUTHERN OHIO TOWARDS THE OHIO RIVER. DEWPOINT DROPS
BEHIND THE FRONT ARE SWIFT...ALONG WITH WINDS GUSTING TO THE 30KT
RANGE AT TIMES BACK IN CENTRAL AND SOUTHWESTERN OHIO. WATCHING THE
DEWPOINT AT KILN DROP 13 DEGREES FROM 56 TO 43 IN THE LAST HOUR.
COLD FRONTS OFTEN TIMES LIKE TO HANG UP IN THE CWA...PARTICULARLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS...BUT UPPER TROUGH AXIS LOOKS STRONG ENOUGH FOR A
CLEAN SWEEP.

CONVECTION HAS BEGUN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT COVERAGE IS LESS THAN
OPTIMUM LIKELY DUE TO THE STRATOCUMULUS THAT HAS BEEN IN PLACE SINCE
THE MID MORNING HOURS. DO EXPECT AN INCREASE IN THE
ACTIVITY...HOWEVER THE THINKING IS THAT DIURNAL HEATING WILL PLAY AS
MUCH OF A FACTOR AS THE DYNAMICS IN THE AMOUNT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
TODAY. NOT EXPECTING SEVERE...BUT WIND GUSTS CERTAINLY ARE POSSIBLE
IN THE COLD ADVECTION COUPLED WITH SOME LOW LEVEL EVAPORATION.

WILL GET A BRIEF CLEAR AREA BEHIND THE FRONT...BUT WILL QUICKLY BE
FILLED IN BY MORE LOW LEVEL CLOUDS WITH THE AXIS OF THE UPPER
TROUGH. WITH THAT SAID...DESPITE THE TSRA IN THE FORECAST...THIS
SYSTEM RESEMBLES MORE OF A COLD SEASON WAVE CYCLONE AS WE TRANSITION
TOWARDS FALL.

WILL NOT GET OUT OF THE 60S AS THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26












000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN MONDAY
NIGHT...AND DOMINATES OUR WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK
WITH WARM DAYS AND COOL NIGHTS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A VERY TRANQUIL AND DRY WEATHER PATTERN IS INDICATED BY ALL THE
MODELS...WHICH IS EXPECTED AT THIS CLIMATOLOGICALLY DRIEST TIME OF
THE YEAR. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL DOMINATE THE
REGION. THERE WILL BE PLENTY OF SUNSHINE EACH DAY AND MOSTLY CLEAR
SKIES AT NIGHT. THE COMBINATION OF MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND DRY AIR
WILL LEAD TO CHILLY TEMPERATURES MONDAY NIGHT...AND SOME NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEY FROST EARLY TUESDAY MORNING CANNOT BE RULED OUT.
OTHERWISE...EXPECT A WIDE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES WITH HIGHS
GENERALLY IN THE LOWER TO MID 70S AND LOWS IN THE 40S FOR THE LOW
LANDS. LEANING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE BY DAY AND LOWER SIDE
BY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE TO THE EAST COAST BY THURSDAY AND
ALLOW A MODEST INCREASE OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE EAST AND
SOUTHEAST THROUGH SUNDAY. HOWEVER...UPPER RIDGING ALOFT WILL HOLD.
SO WHILE SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RETURN AS TIME GOES ON...THE
PROSPECTS OF ANY RAIN ARE VERY LOW AT BEST. THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
BANKING UP AGAINST EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY
BRING INCREASED CLOUDS BY THE WEEKEND. OTHERWISE...SUNSHINE WILL
DOMINATE WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS. THERE WILL BE A SLOW WARMING TREND
WITH HIGHS TO AROUND 80 BY THE WEEKEND AND LOWS GENERALLY IN THE 50S
IN THE LOW LANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 211754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
154 PM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISC...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LACKING SOME CONFIDENCE IN THE AVIATION FORECAST TODAY.

COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST WILL BE A QUICK MOVER THROUGH THIS
AFTERNOON...DRIVEN BY A STRONG UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS. A LINE OF
CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY FORMING WITH THIS COLD FRONT WHICH
DOMINATES THE FIRST 6 HOURS OF THE FORECAST.

THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE THE BETTER CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...WHICH WILL BE CAPABLE OF SOME GUSTY WINDS THAT ARE
ALREADY INCREASING AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM. ALSO INCLUDE BKW/MOUNTAINS
IN THE BETTER TSRA THREAT. HAVE TEMPO GROUPS FOR SHRA ONLY AT HTS
AND CRW.

THE FRONT ITSELF IS LOOKING A LITTLE RAGGED...SO THE COVERAGE OF
THE SHOWERS AND STORMS IS QUESTIONABLE AT THE TIME OF THIS
FORECAST. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE TEMPOS INSTEAD OF THE
PREVAILING CONDITIONS IN THE TAFS.

WIND SHIFTS TO THE NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT...WITH WIND SPEEDS
COMING DOWN BELOW 10KTS TONIGHT.

EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO PERSIST BEHIND THE FRONT IN THE ADVECTION
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INTO THE AREA BEHIND THE FRONT. OPTED
AGAINST FOG GIVEN THE CLOUDS AND PRESSURE GRADIENT WINDS STAYING
AROUND 5KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF CONVECTION MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS. IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211418
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1018 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
LINE HAS DEVELOPED AND IS MOVING THROUGH THE EASTERN CWA...BUT
WITH LITTLE FANFARE. UPDATED THE POPS TO REFLECT THIS AND
CURRENTLY AWAITING THE COLD FRONT AND THE CONVECTION FIRE WITH THE
MAIN BOUNDARY.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED PRECIPITATION DOWN FURTHER STILL...BUT FCST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211109
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
708 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 AM UPDATE...
SLOWED PRECIPITATION DOWN FURTHER STILL...BUT FCST OTHERWISE REMAINS
ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY REMAINING VALLEY FOG WAS BEING SCOURED OUT EARLY THIS
MORNING...AS CLOUD AND WIND WERE INCREASING IN RESPONSE TO A COLD
FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
15Z...CRW AND CKB 16Z AND THE MOUNTAINS 16-17Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 5 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT THIS EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT
MOUNTAINS...BUT LOWER TO MVFR LOWLANDS OVERNIGHT AND EVENTUALLY AOA
1-2 KFT...WITH IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS...BY 12Z MON.  POST-RAIN MVFR
MIST MAY FORM AS WELL OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE FLOW SHOULD REMAIN
STRONG ENOUGH FOR ALL BUT IFR FOG IN A FEW BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

SW SFC FLOW TODAY...A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...WILL BECOME  W TO
NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING...A BIT
GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW ALOFT MOST OF TODAY
WILL BECOME MODERATE NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY WILL VARY AS MAY
MVFR STRATOCU CIGS FOLLOWING THE FRONT TONIGHT AND MVFR MIST AND IFR
CIGS IN MOUNTAINS TOWARD DAWN MON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
520 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON.  AUTUMN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
MONDAY NIGHT...AND THEN DOMINATES THE WEATHER OVER THE AREA THROUGH
MUCH...IF NOT ALL...OF THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CONVECTION AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT CROSSING IN AND IL EARLY THIS
MORNING STRUGGLING TO PUSH E AS INITIAL S/W TROUGH LIFTS OUT.  AS A
RESULT...CONVECTION HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO AN AXIS JUST
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.  AS A RESULT...SHOWERS DO NOT REACH THE UPSTREAM
/W/ EDGE OF THE FCST AREA UNTIL CLOSE TO DAYBREAK.

MODELS ESPECIALLY NEAR TERM MODELS INSIST THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
QUICKLY E ACROSS FCST AREA TODAY IN RESPONSE TO SECOND S/W TROUGH
WHICH ALSO LIFTS OUT THIS MORNING...SO THIS PRECIPITATION MAY AGAIN
STRUGGLE TO HOLD TOGETHER.  POPS EVENTUALLY COME CLOSER IN LINE WITH
PREV FCST AS FRONT AND WHATEVER DIURNAL HEATING WE CAN ACHIEVE
CONVERGE ON THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON BENEATH DIFFLUENT UPPER
LEVEL FLOW AND FALLING HEIGHTS.  SO NAM DYNAMICS SUGGEST AT LEAST
TWO BANDS OF CONVECTION SWEEPING ACROSS WHILE WRFARW FOR EXAMPLE
SUGGESTS SEVERAL.

SEP HEATING AND CLOUD COVER EARLY ON WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY BUT
CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HELPS PUSH MID LEVEL /H85-H7/ LAPSE RATES TO
6-7C/KM.  FLOW IS ALSO MARGINAL WITH 30 KTS AT H85 AND 40 KTS MID
LEVEL MEAN AND 60 KTS AT H5.  WILL BE DIFFICULT BUT NOT IMPOSSIBLE
TO CONVERT THIS TO DAMAGING WIND AT THE SFC BUT ISOLATED STRONGER
GUSTS ARE POSSIBLE.  THINK ANY DAMAGE IS MINOR AND ISOLATED ENOUGH
FOR NO MENTION IN HWO AND NEAR TERM FCST.

H7-H5 LAPSE RATES ARE LOWER OWING TO A STABLE LEVEL THERE SO HAIL IS
NOT LIKELY DESPITE FREEZING LEVELS AS LOW AS 10 KFT AGL AND THE 60
KTS AT H5 WILL BE HARD TO TAP.  SPC KEEPS PROBABILITIES AT 5 PERCENT
ON BOTH IN A SEE TEXT.

BRIEF CLEARING TAKES PLACE LATE TODAY AND TONIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT...BUT CLOUDS INCREASE AGAIN OVERNIGHT IN THE CYCLONIC LOW
LEVEL FLOW BENEATH THE POST FRONTAL INVERSION.  CLOUD AND FLOW
SHOULD PRECLUDE DENSE FOG TONIGHT ALTHOUGH SOME POST RAIN MIST AND
LIMITED VALLEY FOG ARE LIKELY.

MET AND MAV WERE A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREV FCST ON TEMPERATURES BUT
MADE JUST S SLIGHT MOVE IN THAT DIRECTION.  THE TIMING ON HIGHS WILL
VARY BASED ON THE MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...BASICALLY EARLY E AND LATE
W BUT DETAIL DIFFICULT TO CODE.  MOVED TOWARD HIGHER GUIDANCE
TONIGHT WITH THE TYPICAL SLOWER PUSH OF COOLER AIR TOWARD THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE AREA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH UPPER TROUGH PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE CWA. STILL
EXPECTING QUITE A BIT OF STRATUS LINGERING ACROSS THE CWA FOR AT
LEAST THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY...WITH SOME LINGERING LIGHT
PRECIPITATION POSSIBLE MONDAY MORNING. OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE
WILL GRADUALLY BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A GRADUAL
CLEARING/DRYING TREND. WARMER TEMPERATURES EXPECTED BY TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY...AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. EXPECT A
RIDGE/VALLEY TEMPERATURE SPLIT TUESDAY NIGHT/WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HELD OFF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 4 OR 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD EAST COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH THE WETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CROSSING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.  THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME INTERESTING POST
FRONTAL BANDING STRUCTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BUT WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY SUB SEVERE GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE SOME
BRIEF PARTIAL CLEARING COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
REINFORCED AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 AM EDT SUN SEP 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
HELD OFF ARRIVAL OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE WEST
OVERNIGHT BY A COUPLE OF HOURS...OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 4 OR 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD EAST COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH THE WETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CROSSING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.  THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME INTERESTING POST
FRONTAL BANDING STRUCTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BUT WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY SUB SEVERE GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE SOME
BRIEF PARTIAL CLEARING COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
REINFORCED AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WITH WEAKER LOW LEVEL FLOW COMPARED WITH FRI NT...THE BOUNDARY LAYER
HAS DECOUPLED IN THE VALLEYS.  THIS ALLOWS IFR TO AT TIMES VLIFR
DENSE FOG IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN / OVERNIGHT...WITH MVFR AT
TIMES ELSEWHERE EXCEPT PKB / TO CLOSE TO APPROACHING FRONT / AND BKW
/ SOME WIND ON THE RIDGE /.  ANY FOG WILL BURN OFF QUICKLY AFTER
DAYBREAK IF NOT BEFORE...AS THE FRONT AND ITS ASSOCIATED INCREASE IN
CLOUD AND FLOW APPROACH.

THE FRONT WILL LIKELY BRING SHRA/TSRA TO THE OHIO RIVER NEAR
14Z...CRW AND CKB 15Z AND THE MOUNTAINS BY 16Z.  THERE WILL BE ABOUT
A 6 HOUR PERIOD AT MOST SITES DURING WHICH SHRA/TSRA ARE POSSIBLE
AND IT WILL LIKELY COME IN TWO OR THREE BROKEN BANDS.

THE FRONT WILL CROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AROUND 00Z AND THE
MOUNTAINS 01-02Z.  STRATOCU FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING WILL
LIKELY BE 4-5 KFT MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND MVFR 2-3 KFT MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SW SUN...A BIT GUSTY IN THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT LATE SUN AND SUN
EVENING...A BIT GUSTY INITIALLY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE W TO SW FLOW
ALOFT OVERNIGHT AND MOST OF SUNDAY WILL BECOME MODERATE NW SUN NT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION OVERNIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS.  IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW...THEN RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.
CONDITIONS IN SHRA/TSRA SUNDAY WILL VARY AS MAY MVFR STRATOCU CIGS
FOLLOWING THE FRONT SUNDAY EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR STRATUS POSSIBLE MON MORNING...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR
VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TUE MORNING...ESPECIALLY ALONG RIVERS AND IN
BETTER SHELTERED VALLEYS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/JR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 210013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 4 OR 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD EAST COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH THE WETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CROSSING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.  THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME INTERESTING POST
FRONTAL BANDING STRUCTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BUT WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY SUB SEVERE GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE SOME
BRIEF PARTIAL CLEARING COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
REINFORCED AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER
LIMITED TO SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS.  WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AT THE MOMENT I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT
VALLEY FOG FORMING TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY IMPACTS
PATCHY AND MVFR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ELKINS WHERE THE LONGER
DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES MAKE LIFR FOG A POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JR











000
FXUS61 KRLX 210013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
815 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
THE LEADING EDGE OF THE INCOMING FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL REACH THE
NORTHWESTERN BOUNDARY OF THE FORECAST AREA AROUND 4 OR 5 AM SUNDAY
MORNING. PRECIPITATION WILL THEN SPREAD EAST COVERING MUCH OF THE
AREA BY MID TO LATE MORNING. IT DOES LOOK LIKE THE SOMEWHAT STRONGER
ENERGY ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT WILL SPLIT TO THE NORTH AND SOUTH
WITH THE WETTER SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS GENERALLY CROSSING OVER
THE SOUTHERN AREAS.  THE NAM IS GENERATING SOME INTERESTING POST
FRONTAL BANDING STRUCTURE SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL BE
WORTH KEEPING AN EYE ON BUT WITH GENERALLY UNIMPRESSIVE CONVECTIVE
PARAMETERS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE MAINLY SUB SEVERE GUSTS OUT OF
THUNDERSTORMS BOTH WITH AND JUST BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL SEE SOME
BRIEF PARTIAL CLEARING COMING IN FROM THE WEST LATE SUNDAY EVENING
BUT WITH ANOTHER SHORTWAVE ROTATING THROUGH EXPECT TO SEE STRATUS
REINFORCED AND ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS PERSISTING ESPECIALLY
IN THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY PREVAIL ACROSS THE AREA WITH CLOUD COVER
LIMITED TO SOME SCATTERED HIGH THIN CLOUDS.  WITH DEW POINTS
GENERALLY IN THE 60S AT THE MOMENT I DO HAVE SOME CONCERN ABOUT
VALLEY FOG FORMING TONIGHT. HOWEVER WITH CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING
FRONT COMING IN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT HAVE KEPT VISIBILITY IMPACTS
PATCHY AND MVFR. THE EXCEPTION TO THIS IS ELKINS WHERE THE LONGER
DURATION OF CLEAR SKIES MAKE LIFR FOG A POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

AS THE FRONTAL SYSTEM ARRIVES TOMORROW MORNING EXPECT TO SEE MVFR
CEILINGS GENERALLY AROUND 2500 FT WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING THROUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON THE ARRIVAL TIME OF FRONTAL CLOUDS. IF CLOUDS WERE TO
SLOW RIVER VALLEY FOG COULD BE DENSER AND MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 09/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JR
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...JR












000
FXUS61 KRLX 201823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...HARDLY WORTHY OF PUTTING
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. VERTICAL MOTION IS MAKING THE ABSOLUTE
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...WHICH IS NOT VERY
MUCH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.

THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WIND ALOFT TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SEEING THIS IN THE FORM OF GUSTS TO 20MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY VALLEY FOG.

SHOULD GET THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST OHIO
COUNTIES JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DYING
LINE...AND MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT
THIS FEATURE TO COAST AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WILL SEE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND WITH THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...A STRONG GUST
WITH THE LINE OR INDIVIDUAL CELLS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT
CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC BUT HAVE A SEE TEXT
NORTH IN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN
TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR
WORSE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER
FORECAST TIMES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
223 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT SUNDAY. FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A COUPLE OF SPRINKLES OUT THERE RIGHT NOW...HARDLY WORTHY OF PUTTING
SPRINKLES IN THE FORECAST. VERTICAL MOTION IS MAKING THE ABSOLUTE
MOST OF THE AVAILABLE MOISTURE IN THE COLUMN...WHICH IS NOT VERY
MUCH GIVEN THE DRY AIR ALOFT.

THERE IS A LITTLE BIT OF WIND ALOFT TO MIX DOWN INTO THE BOUNDARY
LAYER...AND SEEING THIS IN THE FORM OF GUSTS TO 20MPH OVER THE
NORTHERN TIER OF THE CWA.

CLOUDS MOVE IN TONIGHT AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT BUT CLEAR SKIES
OVER THE EASTERN ZONES MAY ALLOW FOR SOME EARLY VALLEY FOG.

SHOULD GET THE FIRST LINE OF CONVECTION ENTERING THE SOUTHEAST OHIO
COUNTIES JUST AFTER 06Z TONIGHT. THIS WILL LIKELY BE A DYING
LINE...AND MAY NOT HAVE A LOT OF THUNDER ASSOCIATED WITH IT. EXPECT
THIS FEATURE TO COAST AND DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY
THROUGH THE LATE MORNING. WILL SEE STRENGTHENING DURING THE DAYTIME
HOURS...AND WITH THE MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IN PLACE...A STRONG GUST
WITH THE LINE OR INDIVIDUAL CELLS IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. NOT
CURRENTLY OUTLOOKED FOR SEVERE WEATHER BY SPC BUT HAVE A SEE TEXT
NORTH IN PENNSYLVANIA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS HAVE A PROGRESSIVE UPPER TROUGH SWINGING THRU THE AREA SUNDAY
NIGHT AND MONDAY. THE ASSOCIATED MAIN FRONT AND PRECIPITATION BAND
AHEAD OF THE UPPER TROUGH WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY
NIGHT. THERE IS A SECONDARY FRONT THAT DROPS DOWN DURING SUNDAY
NIGHT...WITH SOME DECENT COLD ADVECTION BEHIND IT. THIS WILL ISSUE
IN THE TYPICAL POST FRONTAL STRATUS SUNDAY NIGHT AND LAST INTO MUCH
OF MONDAY. IT APPEARS THE DEEPER MOISTURE WRAPPING AROUND THE
DEPARTING FRONT WILL STAY MAINLY NORTH OF THE AREA...SO ANY POST
FRONTAL SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE NORTH
BEFORE SWINGING RAPIDLY EASTWARD DURING SUNDAY NIGHT. THUS...WILL
HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS NORTH SUNDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...WILL LINGER
BETTER POPS IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS SUNDAY
NIGHT...AIDED BY COLD ADVECTION UPSLOPE...BUT EVEN THIS WILL END BY
MONDAY MORNING AS MOISTURE DEPTH DECREASES THERE. THIS WILL LEAVE
THE STRATUS FOR MONDAY THAT WILL SLOWLY BREAK UP FROM WEST TO EAST
MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE AND LOW LEVEL DRIER AIR QUICKLY SETTLES IN.
FOR MONDAY NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES WILL BE THE RULE WITH WINDS GOING
LIGHT UNDER THE HIGH PRESSURE...RESULTING IN A QUITE CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH EVEN A FEW MID 30S IN THE MORE PROTECTED NORTHERN
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BY TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NOT MUCH GOING ON AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES UNDER A DEVELOPING
EASTERN U.S. UPPER RIDGE. THIS WILL BRING DRY AIR WITH LOTS OF
SUNSHINE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK. THE RESULT HERE WILL BE
A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES...BUT A DEFINITE WARMING TREND
FROM HIGHS IN THE 60S MONDAY TO AROUND 80 BY FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN
TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR
WORSE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER
FORECAST TIMES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN
TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR
WORSE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER
FORECAST TIMES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PLAYED THE TAFS CONSERVATIVELY THIS AFTERNOON.

FIRST OFF...NOT MEETING THE CRITERIA FOR LOW LEVEL WIND
SHEAR...BUT WILL SEE A STRENGTHENING IN THE LOW LEVEL WIND FLOW
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT INTO TONIGHT.

OTHERWISE...VFR THROUGH THE DAY WITH CEILINGS ABOVE 4KFT...GIVING
WAY TO HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING SYSTEM TONIGHT.
THESE WILL LOVER AS THE LINES OF SHOWERS WITH STORMS LATER
SUNDAY...AND EXPECT MVFR CEILINGS TO COME INTO PLAY. PAIRED UP THE
VISIBILITIES WITH THE POPS...SO HAVE NO RESTRICTIONS IN THAT SENSE
UNTIL AFTER 12Z SUNDAY.

THE EASTERN ZONES SHOULD BE CLEAR ENOUGH FOR EARLY FOG DEVELOPMENT
BASED ON NAM AND LAMP GUIDANCE TIMING. THEREFORE...HAVE EKN DOWN
TO LIFR FOR A FEW HOURS...BUT THIS IS THE ONLY SITE FOR IFR OR
WORSE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY IN QUESTION TONIGHT
BEFORE CLOUDS MOVE IN. CEILINGS MAY NOT REACH MVFR UNTIL AFTER
FORECAST TIMES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201426
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1026 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
MID LEVEL INSTABILITY BRINGING SOME ALTOCUMULUS ALONG THE OHIO
VALLEY...SO MADE SOME MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO THE CLOUD FORECAST.
OTHERWISE...LOOKING GOOD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/26
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 201031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
630 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PERHAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN MOST CASES.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO SE FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES CONTINUES TO
ERODE.  IT STILL HAS ONE LAST CHANCE TO GET INTO BKW FOR A TIME THIS
MORNING...ON MIXING AFTER SUNRISE.  CIGS WOULD BE 1-2 KFT SHOULD IT
OCCUR.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS BUT 20 KTS AT 2 KFT FROM
RADAR.  THIS 20 KT CHANGE OVER 2 KFT MAKES LLWS CRITERIA OF 20 KTS
WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC VERY UNLIKELY.

DENSE FOG MAY FORM LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN
/ AHEAD OF THE CLOUDS APPROACHING FROM THE W...AS OFFSHORE HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGES BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...ACTUALLY
RESULTING IN LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS TODAY.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO VEER TOWARD SW
DURING TODAY AND BACK TOWARD SE TONIGHT...EXCEPT IT WILL VEER TOWARD
SW LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CIGS MAY NEVER FORM AT BKW THIS MORNING.
BKW WINDS...GUSTY AT TIMES...MAY VARY FROM FCST TODAY.  THE DENSE
FOG CODED UP FOR LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE TYGART VALLEY / EKN /
MAY NOT BE AS DENSE AS FCST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 200749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
349 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MAINLY DRY WEATHER TODAY.  A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SUNDAY AFTERNOON.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPSLOPE INDUCED LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE WV
MOUNTAINS WERE BEGINNING TO ERODE FROM THE S AND W...A TREND THAT
SHOULD CONTINUE TODAY AS THE FLOW CONTINUES TO VEER THROUGH S.

THIS WARM ADVECTION VEERING WAS ALSO ASSOCIATED WITH A STRATOCU DECK
FORMING TO THE W OF THE AREA IN THE THETA E AXIS.  THIS MAY
EVENTUALLY CONVERT AS SPOTTY SHOWERS W OF HTS LATER THIS MORNING.
MODELS SUGGESTS SPOTTY FRONTOGENETIC FORCING INTO THIS AFTERNOON
RIDING UP THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WITH SUFFICIENT MOISTURE H85-H7 TO
PER HAPS STAND UP A SHOWER...ALTHOUGH NEAR TERM MODELS DO NOT OUTPUT
ANY RAINFALL AMOUNTS.  OTHERWISE WILL HAVE A SCT-BKN CU / STRATOCU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON.

CLOUDS INCREASE AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TONIGHT.  LINE OF
CONVECTION WAS NEARLY CO-LOCATED WITH ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT OVER
THE MIDWEST EARLY THIS MORNING.  HAVE CHC SHRA/TSRA ENTERING THE
AREA FROM THE NW AROUND 06Z AND REACHING THE OHIO RIVER BY 12Z SUN
IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE.  THIS IS CLOSE TO MODELS WHICH
HAVE COME CLOSER TOGETHER FOR THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.  INSTABILITY
BECOMES ELEVATED AS THUNDER ROLLS INTO THE AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

HIGHS TODAY WERE CLOSER TO STRAIGHT GUIDANCE RATHER THAN THE LOWER
BIAS CORRECTED OUTPUT.  LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED OTHER THAN TO LOWER THE
EASTERN SLOPES A BIT...WITH DOWNSLOPE SRLY FLOW W OF THE MOUNTAINS.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR LOWS TONIGHT AS THE MAV LOOKED TOO
LOW ALL AROUND EVEN WITH A BIT LESS FLOW COMPARED WITH THIS MORNING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO AND CENTRAL INDIANA AT BEGINNING OF
PERIOD...PUSHING EAST THROUGH THE CWA DURING THE DAY SUNDAY...AND TO
THE EAST OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN BY SUNDAY NIGHT. NAM STILL THE SLOWER
OF THE SOLUNS...BUT IS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH
FASTER GFS/ECMWF. CONTINUED TO LEAN FORECAST TOWARDS GFS SOLUN.

COULD SEE ISOLATED STRONG WIND GUSTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON...MAINLY
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV COUNTIES ON SUNDAY WITH ANY
CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. SPC CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A SEE TEXT OFF
TO OUR NORTHEAST.

UPPER TROUGH WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS SOME LIGHT PRECIPITATION OR DRIZZLE LINGERING
ACROSS THE CWA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...PARTICULARLY THE
WV/SOUTHWEST VA ZONES. HELD ONTO CLOUD COVER ACROSS THE
AFOREMENTIONED ZONES INTO MUCH OF THE DAY MONDAY...WITH HIGHER
TERRAIN COUNTIES LAST TO CLEAR.  HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FOR
TUESDAY FOR A RETURN TO DRIER WEATHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 200604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 200604
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EDT SAT SEP 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST...ALLOWS SOUTHERLY FLOW TO
BRING WARMER BUT STILL DRY WEATHER SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  FALL HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
200 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE AREA WILL BE IN A SRLY FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE WELL TO THE
E...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W.  THIS WILL KEEP VFR
CONDITIONS FOR THE MOST PART WITH SCT STRATOCU AOA 5 KFT...AND FLOW
JUST STRONG ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE DENSE FOG.

THERE ARE A FEW CAVEATS.

MOISTURE IN S TO E FLOW ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES COULD STILL GET
INTO BKW AT TIMES INTO SAT MORNING WITH CIGS CLOSE TO 1 KFT EITHER
SIDE.

THERE MAY STILL BE POCKETS OF IFR FOG IN DEEPER VALLEYS OF THE SRN
WV COAL FIELDS.

EARLY MORNING LLJ AOA 3 KFT CLOSE TO 40 KTS MAY BRING WIND SHEAR
CLOSE TO LLWS CRITERIA BUT HEIGHT OF LLJ AND SOME WIND AT THE SFC
WILL LIKELY KEEP CRITERIA /20 KTS WITHIN A 200FT LAYER EXISTING
WITHIN 2 KFT OF THE SFC/ FROM BEING MET.

SFC FLOW WILL AVERAGE FROM THE S THROUGH THE PERIOD...A BIT GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES AND HILLTOPS OVERNIGHT AND FRI.  THE WIND WILL TEND TO
VEER TOWARD SW DURING THE DAY AND BACK TOWARD SE AT NT.  FLOW ALOFT
WILL REMAIN MODERATE SW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN.  LLWS
CRITERIA COULD THEN BE MET.  ALSO...TIMING THE FORMATION OVERNIGHT
AND EROSION SAT MORNING OF THE LOW STRATUS CIGS INTO THE SRN
MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 192347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF NORTHEAST COAST.  LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS FROM
SOUTHEAST TONIGHT...TO SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY. WARMER...BUT
STILL MOSTLY DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
EARLY THIS EVENING...WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO
02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS...THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT...OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.

SO INCREASED THE WINDS FOR TONIGHT...AND DOWNPLAYED THE FOG EXCEPT
IN THE DEEP VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA SOUTH OF CRW.

INCREASED THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST WIND IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WIND SHIFT BOUNDARY CAME OFF THE MOUNTAINS AND WAS MOVING THROUGH
WESTERN LOWLANDS TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER AT 23Z.  WINDS SHIFT TO SE
BEHIND THE BOUNDARY.  FIGURING THE FEW SHOWERS ALONG THE BOUNDARY
WILL DISSIPATE WITH SUNSET DURING THE 00Z TO 02Z TIME FRAME.

RAP HAS THE 925 MB FLOW INCREASING 30 TO 35 KNOTS OVER THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS THEN SHIFTING WEST INTO THE MID OHIO VALLEY AND SOUTHEAST
OHIO BY FIRST LIGHT OR 11Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IN THE 00Z SET OF TAFS
THOUGH ENOUGH WIND TO KEEP THICK FOG OUT OF CRW. WITH THE LOW LEVEL
FLOW WEAKENING OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BY 12Z...DID INCLUDE SOME
THICKER FOG IN THE DEEP VALLEYS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF
SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...SSE OF CRW.

MEANWHILE...THE EAST AND SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW HAS LOW STRATUS
CEILING BANKED UP AGAINST THE MOUNTAINS MAINLY FROM CHEAT MOUNTAIN E
OF EKN TO FLAT TOP MOUNTAIN NEAR BKW.

CONFIDENCE ONLY MEDIUM...MAINLY DUE TO FIGURING THE CEILING OVERNIGHT
ON THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE SOUTHEAST FLOW...WHICH INCLUDES BKW.
STILL THINK CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOB 1 THSD FT WITH THE POSSIBILITY
OF SOME DRIZZLE OR SPRINKLES...BEFORE LIFTING 12Z TO 15Z SATURDAY.
VSBY SHOULD BE MOSTLY AOA 5 MILES FOR BKW ELEVATION. HOWEVER...
HIGHER RIDGES...GENERALLY AOA 3500 FEET...WILL BE OBSCURED IN THE
CLOUDS OVERNIGHT THROUGH 12Z.

LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS TO MOSTLY SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY WITH
THE STRONGER GUSTS IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  MAINLY SCATTERED TO
BROKEN CLOUDS AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF SHALLOW INVERSION SETS UP AND ALLOWS WINDS
AT GROUND TO DECREASE...THICKER FOG POSSIBLE AT CRW AND EKN. ALSO
SOME LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR COULD THEN DEVELOP. ALSO...TIMING THE
FORMATION TONIGHT AND EROSION SATURDAY MORNING...OF THE LOW STRATUS
INTO THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND BKW COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 09/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 192030 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500
FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT
TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z
LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE LESS THAN
FORECAST IF NO SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WIND AT
SURFACE CONTINUES TO STIR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV















000
FXUS61 KRLX 192030 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS
TO CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH
GENERALLY MVFR CIGS 1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN.
ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500
FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE SOUTH.

MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS
WE HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT
TO VFR BY 16Z. ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z
LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT IN WESTERN VALLEYS MAY BE LESS THAN
FORECAST IF NO SHALLOW SURFACE INVERSION DEVELOPS AND WIND AT
SURFACE CONTINUES TO STIR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV














000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 192000
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS STILL SHOWING SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH THE FRONTAL BAND
ON SUNDAY AND WHETHER LOW CLOUDS LINGERER BEHIND THE FRONT. NAM HAS
BEEN INCONSISTENT WITH FRONTAL TIMING...WHILE THE ECMWF HAS SPED UP.
WILL STAY WITH THE SREF/GFS WHICH REPRESENTS THE MIDDLE GROUND AND
IS CLOSE TO THE CURRENT PACKAGE. WILL KEEP A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEHIND
THE FRONT DUE TO THE STRENGTH OF THE COLD AIR AND THE NAM HIGHER
RESOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A FALL HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE REGION THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 191849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EAST OF THE AREA WILL BRING WARMER...BUT STILL MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER THROUGH SATURDAY. COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE SUNDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER NEW ENGLAND WILL SHIFT EAST AND
TURN THE WINDS TO A MORE SOUTH SOUTHEAST DIRECTION. CURRENT PLUME
OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND CLOUDS...ON AN EAST SOUTHEASTERLY
FLOW...REMAIN BANKED UP AGAINST THE EASTERN FACING SLOPES OF THE
MOUNTAINS IN OUR AREA. THESE CLOUDS HAVE BROKEN UP SOMEWHAT WITH
MIXING DUE TO HEATING AND A JUST FEW LOW TOPPED AFTERNOON SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE THERE...POSSIBLY SLIPPING INTO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
LOWLANDS. IF ANY SHOWERS FORM THIS AFTERNOON...THEY WILL RAPIDLY
DISSIPATE WITH LOSS OF HEATING. CONTINUED SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST LOW
LEVEL FLOW WILL REDEVELOP THESE CLOUDS TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES.
BELIEVE THE NAM MOS GUIDANCE IS MORE CORRECT...GIVEN THE CURRENT
CONDITIONS COMPARED TO CURRENT GUIDANCE. THUS...WILL CONTINUE
MOSTLY CLOUDY TONIGHT ON EAST FACING SLOPES. ELSEWHERE...ANY
AFTERNOON CU AND ISOLATED SHOWER WILL DISSIPATE AND BE A MOSTLY
CLEAR NIGHT.

THERE WILL BE MORE OF A BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW TONIGHT...SO THAT
RIVER/VALLEY FOG WILL BE MUCH LESS AND MORE BRIEF TONIGHT. TOOK A
BLEND OF MOS GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS...WHICH WILL BE SOMEWHAT
MILDER THAN LAST NIGHT.

FOR SATURDAY...EVEN THOUGH THE SURFACE HIGH WILL BE EAST OF US AND
LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY...SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE WILL
STILL BE KEPT AT BAY AND DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE. IN FACT...DRIER
AIR ROTATING AROUND THE SURFACE HIGH CENTERED OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST WILL HELP DISSIPATE THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS SATURDAY MORNING.
ELSEWHERE...MOSTLY SUNNY WILL BE THE RULE. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
WARMER SATURDAY WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...
REACHING THE LOWER 80S IN MANY PLACES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

AFTER 12Z...MVFR/IFR CLOUDS EAST FACING SLOPES LIFT TO VFR BY 16Z.
ELSEWHERE...RIVER/VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES BY 14Z LEAVING SCT CU.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 191805
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
158 PM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

TIL 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE
ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH GENERALLY MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR/IFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL
CONTINUE TONIGHT EVEN AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY...INCLUDING
BKW BY 06Z. ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY
DISSIPATES WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN
TONIGHT...BUT A SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT AS MUCH DENSE FOG AS WE
HAVE RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 191521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1059 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THRU 12Z SATURDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE
SLIDING OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.

THRU 00Z...LOW LEVEL SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO
CONTINUE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS...WITH MVFR CIGS
1 TO 3 KFT...MAINLY EAST OF BKW AND EKN. ELSEWHERE...INCLUDING BKW
AND EKN...GENERALLY VFR SCT-BKN AOA 3500 FEET. JUST AN ISOLATED LOW
TOPPED SHOWER POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

AFTER 00Z...
MVFR STRATUS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS WILL TEND TO
SLOWLY DISSIPATE TONIGHT AS THE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTHERLY.
ELSEWHERE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AS AFTERNOON CU RAPIDLY DISSIPATES
WITH LOSS OF HEATING. VALLEY FOG/MIST POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT A
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG AS WE HAVE
RECENTLY SEEN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF EROSION OF THE MOUNTAIN STRATUS
THROUGH TONIGHT MAY VARY DEPENDING ON LOW LEVEL FLOW CHANGES. VSBYS
IN VALLEY FOG/MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY ALSO VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM/JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 191034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO VEER TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FORMING THROUGH MIXING
FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  IT COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.  WITH THE FLOW VEERING A BIT
MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF BKW.

DENSE VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING /CRW AND EKN IN
PARTICULAR/...SHOULD THIN OUT BY 13Z.  A NE PUFF PREVENTED MUCH FOG
FROM FORMING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE PATCHY STRATOCU PREVENTED
DENSE FOG AT CKB AND DELAYED ITS ONSET AT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z TODAY.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CU AOA 4 KFT.

VALLEY FOG / MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A S TO SE FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT SE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE LIGHT NE
FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TODAY.  FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CIGS IN SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH
THE DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
VSBYS IN FOG / MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 191034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
634 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE TODAY BEFORE SLIDING OFF
THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS HAS ALLOWED LOW
LEVEL FLOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO VEER TO THE SE EARLY THIS MORNING.
THIS WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO CONTINUE INCREASING ALONG THE EASTERN
SLOPES...WITH MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FORMING THROUGH MIXING
FIRST THING THIS MORNING.  IT COULD PERSIST MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY
BEFORE SCATTERING OUT THIS EVENING.  WITH THE FLOW VEERING A BIT
MORE SRLY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...MVFR CIGS MAY REMAIN JUST E OF BKW.

DENSE VALLEY FOG ELSEWHERE EARLY THIS MORNING /CRW AND EKN IN
PARTICULAR/...SHOULD THIN OUT BY 13Z.  A NE PUFF PREVENTED MUCH FOG
FROM FORMING ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHILE PATCHY STRATOCU PREVENTED
DENSE FOG AT CKB AND DELAYED ITS ONSET AT EKN EARLY THIS MORNING.
MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER SUNRISE THIS
MORNING...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z TODAY.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CU AOA 4 KFT.

VALLEY FOG / MIST IS POSSIBLE TONIGHT...BUT A S TO SE FLOW SHOULD
PREVENT SIGNIFICANT DENSE FOG.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY AND
LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT SE
FLOW ALOFT WILL PREVAIL OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS WHILE LIGHT NE
FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY WILL BECOME LIGHT SE TODAY.  FLOW
ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE S TO SW THROUGHOUT THE REGION
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CIGS IN SRN WV MOUNTAINS WITH
THE DEVELOPING SE UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW THIS MORNING MAY VARY.
VSBYS IN FOG / MIST LATE TONIGHT MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 190703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 190703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
303 AM EDT FRI SEP 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE INCREASES IN SOUTHEAST FLOW ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...AS HIGH
PRESSURE DRIFTS EASTWARD THROUGH SATURDAY.  COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE
SUNDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WELL NNE OF THE AREA...OVER THE ST LAWRENCE RIVER
VALLEY EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL DRIFT ESEWD...OFF THE NEW ENGLAND
COAST THIS PERIOD.  THIS WILL ALLOW LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN TO THE
SE...RESULTING IN CLOUDS FORMING ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS EARLY THIS MORNING.

SE FLOW THERE...AND NE LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY...WILL RESULT IN A SFC INVERTED TROUGH AXIS THAT DRIFTS WWD
OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS AFTERNOON.  THUS HAVE ADJUSTED SCHC POPS
TO REFLECT ISOLATED SHOWERS COMING WWD OUT OF THE MOUNTAINS LATE
THIS AFTERNOON ALONG WITH ASSOCIATED INSTABILITY AXIS...BEFORE
WINDING DOWN TONIGHT.  WEAK FORCING...AND A CAP AROUND 10 KFT SHOULD
KEEP CONVECTION FROM GETTING TALL ENOUGH FOR CHARGE SEPARATION
SUFFICIENT FOR LIGHTNING.

THE SFC TROUGH WILL DISSIPATE THIS EVENING AS THE HIGH MOVES FARTHER
AWAY...AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES S TO SE THROUGHOUT THE AREA
TONIGHT.  THE LOW CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES MAY BREAK UP FOR A
TIME THIS EVENING...BEFORE REFORMING OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES LOOKED GOOD IN TERMS OF LATEST GUIDANCE...INCLUDING THE
COOLING AFFECT OF THE SE FLOW ON THE EASTERN SLOPES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WARM...MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TAKING HOLD ACROSS THE
REGION. WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY ASSOCIATED WITH LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL
SKIRT ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES AREA...WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY. COULD BE A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS ON SATURDAY OUT AHEAD OF
THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT...BUT AT THIS POINT...MOISTURE APPEARS
LIMITED...SO WILL MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST.

COLD FRONT WILL ENTER SOUTHEAST OHIO EARLY SUNDAY...PUSHING OFF TO
THE EAST SUNDAY EVENING. NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE SLOWER OF THE
MODELS WITH PROGRESSING THIS FRONT EAST...AND TENDED TO FOLLOW
GFS/ECMWF SOLUTIONS A LITTLE CLOSER. EXPECTING SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT PUSHES EAST OF THE AREA...WITH
A FEW LIGHT SHOWERS LINGERING INTO MONDAY AS UPPER TROUGH PUSHES
THROUGH. DID ELECT TO HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY MONDAY AS A RESULT.

DRIER AIR EXPECTED TO RETURN TO THE AREA EARLY NEXT WEEK AS HIGH
PRESSURE...AND NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT TAKES HOLD. DROPPED DEW
POINTS EARLY NEXT WEEK TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME MINOR TWEAKS. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH
SOUTHEAST OF THE MOUNTAINS SUNDAY NIGHT WITH HIGH PRESSURE TAKING
CONTROL BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. THE HIGH SHOULD BE IN CONTROL THROUGH
THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL
TEMPERATURES.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS AWAY TO THE NE THRU FRI BEFORE SLIDING
OFF THE E COAST THIS WEEKEND.  IN THE NEAR TERM...THIS ALLOWS LOW
LEVEL FLOW TO VEER TO THE SE OVERNIGHT...BY ABOUT 09Z FRI.  THIS
WILL ALLOW LOW CLOUDS TO INCREASE ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES...WITH
MVFR CIGS 1 TO 2 KFT AT BKW FRI STARTING AROUND 09Z AND THEN
SCATTERING OUT FOR A TIME FRI EVENING.

DENSE VALLEY FOG IS LIKELY TO FORM ELSEWHERE...FIRST OVER THE TUG
FORK AND COAL FIELDS WHERE DEW POINTS ARE HIGHEST...AND LASTLY ALONG
RIVERS FARTHER N.  MORNING CU IS LIKELY AS THE FOG DISSIPATES AFTER
SUNRISE...LEADING TO PATCHY MVFR CIGS 14-18Z FRI.  VFR WILL FOLLOW
WITH AFTERNOON CUR AOA 4 KFT.

AFTER A CALM OVERNIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT SE OVER THE
CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FRI AND LIGHT NE BECOMING LIGHT SE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.  LIGHT TO MODERATE NE FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT SE OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS LATE OVERNIGHT AND OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY DURING THE DAY FRI.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING LOWERING CEILING INTO SRN WV MOUNTAINS
WITH THE DEVELOPING EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW AROUND BKW MAY VARY.
TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY ALSO VARY INTO FRI MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 09/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE SUNDAY IN SHOWERS/STORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







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