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000
FXUS61 KRLX 301835
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
235 PM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. UNSTABLE SUNDAY WITH
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE
CROSSES TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED
WEATHER TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM FRONT LIFTING THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON. THUSFAR NOT A
WHOLE LOT OF QPE OVER OUR CWA AS A COUPLE THOUSAND FEET OF DRY AIR
BELOW 5KFT IS EATING MOST OF THE RAIN BEFORE IT HITS THE GROUND.

MAIN CONCERN IS OVERNIGHT WHEN MOISTURE ADVECTION ERODES THE DRY
LAYER AND PWATS INCREASE TO 1.5 IN AS INSTABILITY BEGINS TO BUILD
AND FFG REMAINS FAIRLY LOW OVER THE ENTIRE AREA FROM RECENT
RAINFALL. DO NOT EXPECT TONIGHT TO BE THE BIG SHOW THOUGH...MORE
OF A PRIMER FOR ANYTHING THAT OCCURS ON SUNDAY
AFTERNOON/EVENING. HOWEVER...THERE MAY BE AN ISOLATED EVENT
TONIGHT THAT MAY WARRANT WATER HEADLINES.

THE AREA WILL GET A LITTLE BREAK ON SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE THE NEXT
SYSTEM ARRIVES SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THIS SYSTEM STREAMS A JUICY 1.7
IN PWAT RIVER INTO THE REGION WITH MUCH MORE WIDESPREAD
INSTABILITY...THUS WILL LIKELY NEED ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
SUNDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH POPS TAPERING OFF
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY MORNING. THE BULK OF MONDAY WILL BE
DRY...ALTHOUGH MOISTURE ALREADY BACK ON THE INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH
IN ADVANCE OF NEXT SYSTEM.

THAT ARRIVES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY...AS MODELS CONTINUE TO DRIFT
FARTHER NORTH WITH A WAVE COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN STATES. HAVE
INCREASED POPS MONDAY NIGHT WITH THIS. BOTH GFS AND NAM ALSO BRING
UPPER TROUGH THROUGH ON TUESDAY...SO INCREASED TO HIGH CHANCE POPS
WITH THIS. ECMWF ALSO SHOWS THE UPPER TROUGH...ALTHOUGH IS NOT AS
ROBUST AS GFS/NAM. SO WHILE THE ECMWF DOES STILL HAVE PRECIPITATION
AROUND...BUT KEEPS IT MORE TIED TO SURFACE WAVE FARTHER EAST. LEFT
MENTION OF THUNDER OUT TUESDAY WITH COOLER TEMPERATURES AND ABUNDANT
CLOUDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH THIS AFTERNOON...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND ISOLATED STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED
AFTER 22-00Z. PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD VARY...AND PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS ALONG THEIR PATH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM/MPK
AVIATION...JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301425
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. UNSTABLE SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS/QPF THROUGH TONIGHT. LARGE SCALE
RAIN WAS CONCERNING ENOUGH TO ISSUE FLASH FLOOD WATCH ESPECIALLY
SINCE THERE SHOULD BE EMBEDDED CONVECTIVE CELLS AS EVIDENCED BY
REGIONAL RADAR RETURNS AND MODEL CONVECTIVE FEEDBACK SIGNATURES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT
NORTH...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWER WITH EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS
ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WV AND
NORTHEAST KY BY 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER ABOUT 1.25
INCHES...DECENT DEEP LAYER SHEAR ABOUT 45 KNOTS...BUT LOW SFC CAPE
WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 12C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEFORE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 - 1500 J/KG
RANGE AND HEIGHT FALLS AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 - 50KTS...WHICH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN POKES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY TO FURTHER ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY.  EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS EXTENDED A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT
WILL PRIME THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
STORMY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
MAKE ANY BREAK IN THE ACTION SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
15-18Z...UNDER PERIODS OF RAIN OR THUNDER. PCPN SHOULD REACH HTS
AND CRW AROUND 16Z TODAY...AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.
PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD VARY...AND PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS OR WORST ALONG THEIR
PATH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO MONDAY
MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 2 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH SUNDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...TRM/MPK
AVIATION...JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301015
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
615 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. UNSTABLE SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.
LARGE UPPER TROUGH BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS END
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WV AND NORTHEAST KY BY 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DESCENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ABOUT 45
KNOTS...BUT LOW SFC CAPE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 12C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEFORE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 - 1500 J/KG
RANGE AND HEIGHT FALLS AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 - 50KTS...WHICH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN POKES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY TO FURTHER ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY.  EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS EXTENDED A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT
WILL PRIME THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
STORMY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
MAKE ANY BREAK IN THE ACTION SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH TODAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED AFTER
15-18Z...UNDER PERIODS OF RAIN OR THUNDER. PCPN SHOULD REACH HTS
AND CRW AROUND 16Z TODAY...AND SPREAD NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS AND STORMS
COULD VARY...AND PRODUCE IFR CONDITIONS OR WORST ALONG THEIR
PATH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...TRM/MPK
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 300949 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
549 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE TODAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING
MORE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WV AND NORTHEAST KY BY 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DESCENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ABOUT 45
KNOTS...BUT LOW SFC CAPE WILL COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 12C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEFORE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 - 1500 J/KG
RANGE AND HEIGHT FALLS AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 - 50KTS...WHICH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN POKES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY TO FURTHER ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY.  EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS EXTENDED A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT
WILL PRIME THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
STORMY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
MAKE ANY BREAK IN THE ACTION SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT EKN...PKB...AND
CKB THAT COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. TIMING...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...TRM/MPK
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 300758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE TODAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY. LARGE UPPER TROUGH MAY BRING
MORE COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER TOWARDS END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WV AND NORTHEAST KY BY 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DESCENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ABOUT 45
KNOTS...BUT LOW SFC CAPE WITH COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 12C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
SHOULD HAVE A BRIEF LULL IN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY SUNDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL TO WESTERN FORECAST AREA AFTER WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEFORE
COLD FRONT APPROACHES IN THE AFTERNOON. GUIDANCE INDICATES MODEST
INSTABILITY LATER SUNDAY WITH CAPE VALUES IN THE 1000 - 1500 J/KG
RANGE AND HEIGHT FALLS AS SHORTWAVE APPROACHES SUNDAY EVENING
WILL STEEPEN LAPSE RATES CLOSE TO 7C/KM. ALSO OF NOTE WILL BE
0-6KM SHEAR VALUES OF 40 - 50KTS...WHICH SUPPORTS ORGANIZED
UPDRAFTS. BIG QUESTION WILL BE HOW MUCH SUN POKES THROUGH DURING
THE DAY TO FURTHER ADD TO THE INSTABILITY...AS LOW CLOUDS MAY
LINGER ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO THE EARLY MORNING
ACTIVITY.  EVEN SO WE SHOULD STILL HAVE ENOUGH FORCING WITH THE
COLD FRONT TO KICK OFF SOME STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS...WITH SOME POSSIBLY
CONTAINING GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL. SPC HAS EXTENDED A MARGINAL RISK
AREA FOR SEVERE STORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO
DEVELOP WILL HAVE TO BE CAREFULLY MONITORED FOR FLASH FLOODING...ESPECIALLY
AFTER THE HEAVY RAIN FROM SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THAT
WILL PRIME THE AREA.

HIGH PRESSURE AND RIDGING SHOULD GIVE US A BRIEF REPRIEVE FROM
STORMY CONDITIONS ON MONDAY...HOWEVER THE PROGRESSIVE PATTERN WILL
MAKE ANY BREAK IN THE ACTION SHORT LIVED AS NEXT SHORT WAVE COULD
ARRIVE AS EARLY AS LATE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
08Z MORNING UPDATE...ENSEMBLE AND OPERATIONAL MODELS ARE COMING
INTO BETTER AGREEMENT FOR THE END OF NEXT WEEK...WITH LARGE UPPER
LOW/TROUGH BECOMING ENTRENCHED OVER THE REGION. THIS PATTERN WILL
LIKELY BRING COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE REGION. HAVE
DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND UPDATE THE LONG TERM FOR TEMPERATURES THU-
SAT. IN THIS PATTERN...TEMPERATURES ARE LIKELY TO BE UNSEASONABLY
COOL AND SOME WINTRY PRECIPITATION COULD BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE EASTERN FORECAST AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT EKN...PKB...AND
CKB THAT COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. TIMING...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...TRM/MPK
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 300705
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE TODAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH
COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE
PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL GRADUALLY LIFT NORTH...BRINGING SCATTERED TO
NUMEROUS SHOWER WITH EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN OVER SOUTHERN WV AND NORTHEAST KY BY 18Z SATURDAY. PRECIPITABLE
WATER ABOUT 1.25 INCHES...DESCENT DEEP LAYERED SHEAR ABOUT 45
KNOTS...BUT LOW SFC CAPE WITH COMBINE TO PRODUCE MAINLY SHOWERS
THROUGH TONIGHT.

MODELS INDICATE H850 TEMPERATURES WILL BE AROUND 12C THROUGH THE
PERIOD. TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND COOLING
SHOWERS...GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING INTO THE
LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS.  WENT CLOSER TO THE NATIONAL BLEND OF
MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT EKN...PKB...AND
CKB THAT COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. TIMING...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 300526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT SAT APR 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS
OVERCAST CIRRUS HAS TAKEN HOLD. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED
HAILERS...WE WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HELPED TO HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN
OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL...EXCEPT AT EKN...PKB...AND
CKB THAT COULD SEE SOME MVFR/IFR FOG DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND
WEST...SHOULD GENERALLY PREVENT DENSE FOG DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT.

A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH ON SATURDAY...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
ISOLATED STORMS DURING THE EARLY AFTERNOON. WIDESPREAD MVFR
CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLOUD COVER COULD PREVENT FOG DEVELOPMENT
TONIGHT. TIMING...COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON
SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 292351
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
751 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS
OVERCAST CIRRUS HAS TAKEN HOLD. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED
HAILERS...WE WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HELPED TO HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN
OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...SHOULD GENERALLY HELP TO KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT
BAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AT SITES SUCH AS
KCRW...KHTS...AND KBKW. FOG DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AT SITES KCKB...KPKB...AND KEKN...HOWEVER...INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUD DECK MAY PREVENT IFR FOG AT THESE SITES. HAVE KEPT
IT IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN...WITH SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 15-18Z...AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB TO KEN CORRIDOR
COULD VARY EITHER WAY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 292351
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
751 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS
OVERCAST CIRRUS HAS TAKEN HOLD. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED
HAILERS...WE WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HELPED TO HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN
OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH CLOUDS CREEPING IN FROM THE SOUTH AND WEST THIS
EVENING...SHOULD GENERALLY HELP TO KEEP FOG DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT AT
BAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE SOUTH AND WEST AT SITES SUCH AS
KCRW...KHTS...AND KBKW. FOG DEVELOPMENT STILL POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTH AT SITES KCKB...KPKB...AND KEKN...HOWEVER...INCREASING MID
AND HIGH CLOUD DECK MAY PREVENT IFR FOG AT THESE SITES. HAVE KEPT
IT IN THE TAF FOR NOW.

OTHERWISE...MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TOWARDS DAWN...WITH SHRA AND
ISOLD TSRA DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 15-18Z...AS A WARM
FRONTAL BOUNDARY GRADUALLY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE REGION. WIDESPREAD
MVFR CONDITIONS DEVELOPING AFTER 15-18Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
EASTERN SLOPES OF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND AT SITES SUCH AS KBKW AS
A SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW TAKES HOLD. WV LOWLANDS MAY BE SLOWER TO
DEVELOP MVFR CONDITIONS IN THE SOUTHEASTERLY DOWNSLOPING FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB TO KEN CORRIDOR
COULD VARY EITHER WAY. TIMING AND DEVELOPMENT OF MVFR CONDITIONS
ON SATURDAY COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 04/30/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 292255
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
650 PM UPDATE...INCREASED SKY COVER ACROSS THE CWA THIS EVENING AS
OVERCAST CIRRUS HAS TAKEN HOLD. THIS MAY HAVE AN EFFECT ON FOG
DEVELOPMENT TONIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUS
FORECAST OK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID
AFTERNOON AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED
HAILERS...WE WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION
HELPED TO HOLD THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN
OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BE LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO TO MOSTLY
2 THSD FT BKN 18Z TO 21Z.  SOME LINGERING VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE
UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS...NORTH OF KUNI.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER
SOME FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE
CIRRUS AND APPROACHING MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND
STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN
EASTERN OHIO FROM THE HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE
ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND
ELKINS.

HAVE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING TO MID DECK AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
HTS VCNTY BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.  WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AND
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB TO KEN CORRIDOR
COULD VARY EITHER WAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 292034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
434 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT. DRIER MONDAY. WAVE PASSES TO THE SOUTHEAST TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED HAILERS...WE
WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPED TO HOLD
THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A RATHER MESSY FORECAST STILL FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY.
LOOKS LIKE WE MAY HAVE A DRY PERIOD SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE
WEST...BUT STILL HANGING ONTO CHANCE POPS. HAVE LIKELY POPS ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINS. ENTIRE CWA SHOULD GET SOME RAIN ON SUNDAY...BUT
TIMING IS RATHER DIFFICULT. NAM SHOWS SOME BREAKS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...WITH THE MAIN SLUG IN THE MORNING...WHILE GFS AND ECMWF
HAVE LESS DEFINITION. THIS ALL MAKES IT DIFFICULT TO HIGHLIGHT WHEN
THESE DRIER PERIODS MAY BE ON SUNDAY...SO GENERALLY KEPT HIGH POPS
THROUGHOUT THE DAY...GRADUALLY TAPERING OFF SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. DESPITE THE SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND IN THE MORNING...THE
NAM STILL INDICATED SOME DECENT INSTABILITY SUNDAY. IN
ADDITION...NAM BULK SHEAR HAS INCREASED IN RECENT RUNS -- NOW
GENERALLY 40-50KTS SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THINK THE MORNING ACTIVITY
SHOULD LIMIT INSTABILITY SOME...BUT STILL CANNOT RULE OUT SOME
STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS WITH GUSTY WINDS AND POSSIBLY HAIL.
ALONG
PWATS LOOK TO BE THE HIGHEST SATURDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE WESTERN HALF
OF THE CWA...MAXING OUT JUST OVER 1.5 IN. GENERALLY HAVE ABOUT 1
INCH OF QPF SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. BUT ANY AREAS THAT
RECEIVE REPETITIVE DOWNPOURS COULD START EXPERIENCING MINOR WATER
ISSUES. WILL KEEP MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS STILL DIFFER ON WAVE CROSSING THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC STATES
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...BUT THERE IS INCREASING CONSENSUS ITS
MOISTURE AFFECTS AT LEAST SOUTHEASTERN PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST
AREA.

MODELS ALSO REMAIN A BIT OUT OF SYNC WITH A COUPLE OF NORTHERN
STREAM SYSTEMS THAT CROSS MID TO LATE WEEK. THE GFS BRINGS COLD
FRONTS ACROSS LATE WEDNESDAY AND THEN FRIDAY NIGHT...WHILE THE
ECMWF TIMING IS EARLY THURSDAY ON THE FIRST COLD FRONT...AND THEN
IT JUST CLOSES OFF A LARGE UPPER LOW THAT THEN SLOWLY LUMBERS
THROUGH THE AREA AT LEAST THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE GFS IS
FARTHER NORTH AND DEEPER WITH THE UPPER LOW...HENCE THE MORE
DEFINED SECOND SURFACE FRONT. AS FOR THE UPPER LOWS...THIS IS A
CLASSIC CASE OF DEEPER...BY ABOUT 350M...AND FARTHER NORTH VERSUS
WEAKER AND FARTHER SOUTH.

THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS FRONTS AND THE ASSOCIATED CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS ACROSS WEDNESDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHTS...SIMILAR TO THE WPC
DEPICTION.

KEPT LOWS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST AND A GUIDANCE BLEND. BLENDED
IN GFS-BASED GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS...A LITTLE LOWER THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST FOR THE MOST PART.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BE LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO TO MOSTLY
2 THSD FT BKN 18Z TO 21Z.  SOME LINGERING VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE
UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS...NORTH OF KUNI.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER
SOME FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE
CIRRUS AND APPROACHING MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND
STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN
EASTERN OHIO FROM THE HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE
ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND
ELKINS.

HAVE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING TO MID DECK AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
HTS VCNTY BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.  WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AND
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCKB TO KEN CORRIDOR
COULD VARY EITHER WAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS..AND IN STRATUS LINGERING INTO
MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 291829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 PM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR LINGERS INTO TONIGHT. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE
SATURDAY. MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.  DRIER MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AFTER YESTERDAYS SHOWERS/STORMS THAT FORMED DURING THE MID AFTERNOON
AND LINGERED INTO THE EVENING...PLUS THE LOCALIZED HAILERS...WE
WELCOME THE DRIER AIR TODAY. THE COLD AIR ADVECTION HELPED TO HOLD
THE LOW CLOUDS THE LONGEST FRIDAY IN EASTERN OHIO...MOSTLY NORTH OF
THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR.

BEFORE WE LOOK OUT OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST WINDOW...STILL NEED
TO MONITOR THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH
PENNSYLVANIA THIS EVENING.  NO REASON TO REMOVE OUR SLIGHT CHANCE OF
A RAIN SHOWER IN OUR EXTREME NORTHEAST FOR EARLY THIS EVENING.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER SOME FOR THE REST
OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE CIRRUS AND APPROACHING
MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN
DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN EASTERN OHIO FROM THE
HOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR IN WEST
VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

FURTHER SOUTH...IN THE DRIER AIR...NO FOG TONIGHT WITH
THE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING INTO MID DECK.

WILL HAVE RAIN SHOWERS SPREADING N DURING THE 12Z TO 18Z TIME
FRAME.  MAIN CHANCE WAS TO TRY TO LOWER POPS FROM CRW ON SOUTH
TOWARD WILLIAMSON AND THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AS THE PSEUDO WARM
FRONTAL LIFT SHIFTS NORTH.  WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW THOUGH...FIGURING
LOWER CLOUDS ALONG EASTERN SLOPES...WILL NOT REDUCE POPS LATE IN
THE DAY FOR THOSE EASTERN SLOPES INCLUDING POCAHONTAS COUNTY.

WILL KEEP CHANCE OF THUNDER AOB 14 PCT.  COULD NOT RULE OUT AN
EMBEDDED T IN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH THE BEST LIFT...BUT THINK HIGHER
CHANCES ARE SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LINGERING LOWER STRATUS SHOULD BE LIFTING IN EASTERN OHIO TO MOSTLY
2 THSD FT BKN 18Z TO 21Z.  SOME LINGERING VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN HAZE
UNDER THOSE LINGERING CLOUDS...NORTH OF KUNI.

WITH CLEARING EXPECTED IN THE NORTH...DEW POINTS SHOULD LOWER
SOME FOR THE REST OF THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTH.  THINKING THE
CIRRUS AND APPROACHING MID DECK WILL STAY THINNER IN THESE NORTHERN
COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT. AS A RESULT...WITH THE WETTER GROUND...AND
STILL A LOCAL MAXIMUM IN DEW POINT....WILL INSERT SOME FOG AFTER 04Z IN
EASTERN OHIO FROM THEHOCKING VALLEY ON NORTH AND ALSO FOR THE ROUTE 50
CORRIDOR IN WEST VIRGINIA...PLUS THE TYGART VALLEY AROUND ELKINS.

HAVE HIGH CLOUDS THICKENING TO MID DECK AND SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN POSSIBLE
HTS VCNTY BEFORE 12Z SATURDAY.  WIDESPREAD RAIN SHOWERS LIFTING NORTH
12Z TO 18Z SATURDAY WITH CEILINGS LOWERING TO MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT AND
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE COVERAGE AND DURATION OF ANY THICKER
FOG OVERNIGHT TONIGHT IN THE KUNI TO KPKB TO KCBK TO KEN CORRIDOR COULD VARY
EITHER WAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY NIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 291428
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1025M EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER AIR FOR TODAY. WARM FRONTAL SHOWERS INCREASE SATURDAY.
MORE INSTABILITY SUNDAY WITH COLD FRONT SINKING SOUTHEAST
SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COOLER 850 MB TEMPERATURES TRYING TO SINK SE INTO MID OHIO VALLEY.
850 TEMP AT ILN WENT FROM 12C AT 00Z TO 5C AT 12Z. PBZ WENT FROM 10C
AT 00Z TO 7C AT 12Z.  AS EXPECTED...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND
ASSOCIATED CLOUDS DID SINK SOUTH OVERNIGHT... WILL BE THE SLOWEST TO
LIFT IN OHIO...IN THE COOLER AIR.

IN THE WEST AND NORTHWEST 850 MB FLOW THIS AFTERNOON...FIGURING THE
MOST STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA.  SO CLOUD
FORECAST DIFFICULT IN THE TRANSITION ZONE AROUND CRW TODAY.

BASED ON 850 TEMPS...LOWERED MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR TODAY A BIT.

BEFORE WE STARTING LOOKING OUT OUR SW WINDOW...STILL NEED TO MONITOR
THE NORTH BRANCH DISTURBANCE DROPPING SE FROM MICHIGAN.  A FEW LIGHT
SHOWERS MAY FORM OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS OF WV INTO THIS EVENING.

THINKING THE MID DECK MOISTURE FROM THE SW SYSTEM WILL INCREASE IN
THE HTS TRI STATE THIS EVENING...THEN LIFT INTO NORTHERN COUNTIES
06Z TO 12Z SATURDAY.  IF SKY CLEAR ENOUGH THIS EVENING...WILL
MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE FOG INSERTION TONIGHT IN THE WETTER NORTHERN
COUNTIES.

ALSO...BASED ON CLOUDS AND INCREASING SHOWERS...LOWER MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE A BIT FOR SATURDAY.  THINKING CHANCES OF T RELATIVELY
LOW ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG CURRENTLY IN HTS...AND PKB WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: END OF FOG COULD VARY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 291028
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
628 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST TODAY. ITS EXODUS
WILL TAKE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MILD TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING
TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY IFR/LIFR FOG CURRENTLY IN HTS...AND PKB WILL GRADUALLY
DISSIPATE BY 13-14Z. SOME MVFR CEILINGS COULD REMAIN ACROSS THE
WESTERN SLOPES THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: END OF FOG COULD VARY THIS MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
401 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SFC BUT WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM EXITS NORTHEAST TODAY. ITS EXODUS
WILL TAKE RAIN SHOWERS WITH IT KEEPING THE AREA DRY THROUGH TONIGHT.

MILD TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S LOWLANDS...RANGING
TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS THIS AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. CLEARING
IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE.

MVFR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY CKB WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING BY 08Z.
EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290754
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
354 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT
RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS
OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
OUR ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE AS OUR NEXT SYSTEM PUSHES
INTO THE REGION ON SATURDAY. WARM FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA
ON SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND KICK OFF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WILL
HAVE TO WATCH FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND FLASH
FLOODING...AS PWATS APPROACH 1.5 INCHES...ABOUT 2 STANDARD
DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL. LOW MBE VECTOR LESS THAN 10 KNOTS AND
SKINNY CAPE VALUES OVERNIGHT WILL BRING THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY
RAIN AND POSSIBLY TRAINING CELLS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE FLASH
FLOOD THREAT...AND DUE TO HEAVY RAIN RECEIVED THE PAST COUPLE OF
DAYS IN SOME AREAS...WE CAN EXPECT FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE TO BE
FAIRLY LOW AND ANY HEAVY RAIN FOR A PERIOD OF TIME COULD CAUSE
ISSUES. WPC HAS HIGHLIGHTED OUR AREA IN A SLIGHT RISK FOR
EXCESSIVE RAINFALL ON DAY 2.

LOW PRESSURE PASSES OUR CWA ON SUNDAY...DRAGGING A COLD FRONT
THROUGH THR REGION. STILL EXPECTING A JUICY AIRMASS IN PLACE AND
THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL INCREASE ONCE
AGAIN SUNDAY AFTERNOON. FORECAST SOUNDINGS ARE INDICATING CAPE
VALUES IN THE 1500 J/KG RANGE...AND ALSO SHEAR OF 35-45 KTS...SOME
STORMS COULD BE QUITE STRONG...HOWEVER AT THIS TIME THE MAIN
CONCERN THAT WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR WILL BE THE FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. CLEARING
IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE.

MVFR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIALLY CKB WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING BY 08Z.
EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MPK
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT FRI APR 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS NORTHEAST. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE
FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS
PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT
RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS
OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCATTERED SHOWERS HAVE MOVED NORTHEAST OUT OF OUR AREA. CLEARING
IS SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH ALLOWING RADIATIONAL COOLING TO
TAKE PLACE.

MVFR LOW CEILINGS OR FOG COULD BE POSSIBLE OVER AREAS THAT
RECEIVED RAINFALL ESPECIFICALLY CKB WITH IFR FOG DEVELOPING BY
08Z. EXPECT GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 04/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 290207
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1007 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT
RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS
OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
02Z...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
EXPECT BRIEF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...WHEN LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KBKW...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. IN AREAS WHERE LOW STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...COULD
SEE AREAS OF DENSE IFR FOG...GENERALLY SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/29/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 282322
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION IS SLOWLY DYING DOWN ACROSS THE CWA
WITH THE LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. A SUPERCELL WAS OBSERVED ON
RADAR THIS EVENING...WITH REPORTS OF GOLF BALL SIZE HALL...AS IT
RODE SOUTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND INTO CENTRAL/NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA ALONG A STALLED BOUNDARY. AS OF 715 PM...NO REPORTS
OF WATER ISSUES IN THE CWA YET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SCT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST
02Z...WITH BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...GUSTY WINDS...AND LARGE HAIL.
EXPECT BRIEF IFR AND MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...BRIEF PERIOD OF VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT
03Z...WHEN LOW CEILINGS WILL FORM...PARTICULARLY ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM KCRW TO KBKW...WITH WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED. GENERAL IMPROVEMENT TO VFR AFTER 15-18Z...WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS. IN AREAS WHERE LOW STRATUS DOES NOT DEVELOP...COULD
SEE AREAS OF DENSE IFR FOG...GENERALLY SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND SOUTHWEST VA.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>030-037>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
245 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT PER THE
RAP...WE ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
ANY LINGERING SHOWERS WILL COME TO AN END FRIDAY NIGHT. BUT THE
DRY WEATHER IS FAIRLY SHORT LIVED AS MOISTURE INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTHWEST SATURDAY. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE INTO THE LOWER OHIO
RIVER VALLEY SATURDAY DRIVING A WARM FRONT NORTH ACROSS THE CWA
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THE LOW WILL PASS THE CWA ON
SUNDAY WITH A COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN
MODELS ON THE EVOLUTION OF THIS SYSTEM...SO OVERALL TIMING OF
HIGHEST POPS MAY VARY...BUT HAVE LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND AGAIN SUNDAY. PWATS SURGE UP TO AROUND 1.5
INCHES SATURDAY AFTERNOON...THEN WE WILL ALSO GET A POOLING OF
PWATS AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PUSHING THEM UP TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES
AGAIN. WITH THE RECENT RAINFALL PATTERNS...AREAS THAT HAVE BEEN
HIT SEVERAL TIMES OVER THE PAST WEEK WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED FOR
POTENTIAL WATER CONCERNS. WILL MENTION THIS IN THE HWO. SHOULD GET
SOME INSTABILITY SUNDAY...BUT THINK CLOUDS WILL LIMIT IT SOME.
HOWEVER...WITH SHEAR OF 35-45KTS...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME GUSTY
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
COLD FRONT SHOULD BE WELL SOUTH AND EAST BY MONDAY...BUT MODELS
BRING WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH...SO HAVE SHOWERS LINGERING.
THE 00Z ECMWF THEN SHOWS A WAVE ALONG THE FRONT BULGING IT BACK
NORTH TUESDAY INTO SOUTHEASTERN CWA. THE 12Z ECMWF IS EVEN MORE
AGGRESSIVE SURGING THE FRONT BACK NORTH WITH THIS WAVE...AND WOULD
SPELL PRECIP ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA. HOWEVER GFS KEEPS THE ENTIRE
THING FARTHER SOUTH. WENT WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR NOW
UNTIL THIS BECOMES BETTER RESOLVED. OTHERWISE REMAINED CLOSE TO
WPC GUIDANCE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS.  WILL
PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING
THE TERMINAL.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 11 THSD.  COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS.

HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD
FT BKN TO OVC.

00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER.  LOW CEILINGS
FORMING.

06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING
MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.  RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-026>030-037>039-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR OHZ075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 10 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-
     105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 PM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS OF 1730Z...FRONT NEARLY STATIONARY NEAR MGW ON WEST TO NORTH OF
PKB AND SOUTH OF ZZV TO NORTH OF CVG.  THE FRONT WILL BEGIN TO SAG
SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

INSTABILITY CONTINUES TO INCREASE...SO WE STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM SOUTH OF THE FRONT. SO THE LIKELY POPS WE
INSERTED THIS MORNING...SHOULD STILL BE ON TRACK FOR THIS AFTERNOON
INTO THE EVENING.  DID ADJUST HIGHER POPS A BIT FURTHER SOUTH INTO
OUR SOUTHERN WV COUNTIES TOO.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL LIKELY POST A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. STILL
CONCERNED WITH LOCALIZED DOWNPOURS OVER THE WET AREAS. OF
COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON THE RAP...WE
ARE ALSO CONCERNED ABOUT SEVERE STORMS TOO.

AS THAT FRONT SAGS SOUTH...LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY
MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW
TURNS NW.  HELD ONTO SOME 20 TO 40 POPS IN OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES.

TRIED TO LIFT CEILINGS 15 TO 18Z FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECT NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z
SOUTH OF THE FRONT.  SO HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS IN THE
CONVECTION...THAT CAN NOT BE ENTIRELY SHOWN IN THE POINT TAFS.  WILL
PUT TSTMS IN VCNTY IN THE TAFS...UNTIL WE SEE THE STORMS THREATENING
THE TERMINAL.  EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL 30 TO 34 THSD...FREEZING LEVEL
AROUND 11 THSD.  COULD EASILY SEE SOME SEVERE...AND LOCALIZED
DOWNPOURS.

HAVE LOCAL IFR IN THUNDERSTORMS...WITH CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD
FT BKN TO OVC.

00Z TO 06Z...THUNDERSTORMS WANE BUT SHOWERS LINGER.  LOW CEILINGS
FORMING.

06Z TO 14Z...FIGURING MORE WIDESPREAD STRATUS...AND THUS FORECASTING
MORE 2 TO 4 MILES IN FOG...INSTEAD OF THE AOB 1 MILE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE LOW CEILINGS FORMING OVERNIGHT AND
LOWER VSBY MAY VARY.  RAIN INDUCED FOG COULD FORM EARLIER THAN
FORECAST TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
   M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE GAIN SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281503
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1055 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. RAIN CHANCES DECREASE FRIDAY BUT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
LINGERS. ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AS OF 1445Z...HAVE ANALYZED SURFACE FRONT NEAR THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
FROM ATHENS TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA...CLARKSBURG...GRAFTON.
SO A LARGE NORTH TO SOUTH TEMPERATURE GRADIENT EXPECTED LATE
AFTERNOON BETWEEN SAY PIT AND CRW.  WITH THE DIFFERENTIAL HEATING
AND THE FORECAST MODEL INSTABILITY DEVELOPING...EXPECT NEW ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION TO FORM 18Z TO 21Z AND LINGERING INTO THIS EVENING.
DILEMNA IS HOW FAR SOUTH... THINKING THE HTS-CRW-BKW CORRIDOR MAY BE
ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THIS MORE ENHANCED COVERAGE.  SO WILL DRAW
SOME LIKELY POPS FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON NORTH TOWARD THE FRONT FOR 20Z
INTO THIS EVENING...LINGERING THE LONGEST ALONG THE FRONT IN
NORTHERN COUNTIES.

DUE TO THE PAST RAINS OF 3 DAYS...AFTER COORDINATING WITH OUR
HYDROLOGIST...WE WILL BE CONSIDERING A SHORT TERM FLASH FLOOD WATCH
FOR LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING IN THOSE WETTEST COUNTIES. WE
WANT TO SEE THE NEW INITIATION/CONVECTION TRENDS EARLY THIS
AFTERNOON. OF COURSE...WITH EQUILIBRIUM LEVEL AROUND 30 THSD FT ON
THE RAP...COULD SEE SOME SEVERE STORMS TOO.

LOTS OF LOW CLOUDS FIGURES ON FRIDAY MORNING...ESPECIALLY FOR
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...AS COOLER TEMPERATURES
ARE ADVECTED SOUTH AS 925 MB FLOW TURNS NW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 281041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
WAVES OF SHOWERS CONTINUE TO PASS THROUGH THE CWA...BUT IS LARGELY
LIGHT IN NATURE. AREA CREEKS AND RIVERS ARE HANDLING THE WATER OK
AT THIS HOUR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL
LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE
WILL ONCE AGAIN BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL
FLOW ALOFT AND LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO
VALLEY. THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION
MOVING THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PUT A LOT OF WEIGHT ON HRRR GUIDANCE...ESPECIALLY IN THE NEAR
TERM...AS CONDITIONS HAVE EVOLVED OVERNIGHT.

NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL HAVE A DIFFICULT TIME GETTING OUT OF
MVFR STRATUS THROUGH THE DAY TODAY...AND EVEN INTO TONIGHT AS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LINGER IN THESE AREAS WITH A COLD FRONT
STALLING FROM CENTRAL OHIO INTO SOUTHWEST PENNSYLVANIA...AND
SOUTHWARD ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

EXPECTING MORE ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND STORMS TODAY...SCATTERED IN
COVERAGE. NO PREVAILING FOR THESE STORMS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING EXCEPT FOR CKB AND EKN WHERE THE HIGHER CHANCES
EXIST.

HEADING INTO THE OVERNIGHT AFTER 03Z...SOUTHERN TERMINALS MAY
CLEAR WHICH COULD ALLOW VALLEY FOG TO FORM LATE. THIS IS REFLECTED
WITH DETERIORATING VISIBILITIES LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST. CLEARING/FOG MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280735
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT WITH MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED. SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR FILTERS IN FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.
ANOTHER SYSTEM BRINGS PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DRIER AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS MOVING IN FOR FRIDAY INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. WILL REMOVE POPS FOR ALL BUT NORTHEASTERN WV.

MODELS ARE SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER WITH THE NEXT SYSTEM. WILL PULL
HIGHER POPS FORWARD INTO SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT.
IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280648
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
248 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE LINGERS THROUGH TONIGHT. MORE CONVECTION
EXPECTED.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WHILE THE BETTER FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WILL LIFT TO THE NORTH THIS
MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON...ATMOSPHERE WILL ONCE AGAIN BE
PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN ZONAL FLOW ALOFT AND
LINGERING LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE BULK OF THE OHIO VALLEY.
THAT...AND OLD BOUNDARIES FROM THE DECAYING CONVECTION MOVING
THROUGH...SHOULD PROVIDE ENOUGH MEANS FOR INITIATION FOR
ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. THE QUESTION
IS THE COVERAGE/FREQUENCY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES.

INFLATED NAM DEWPOINTS GIVE QUITE A BIT OF SURFACE BASED CAPE
TODAY DURING MAX HEATING HOURS IN THE 1500-2000 J/KG RANGE. EVEN
IF THOSE VALUES ARE ON THE HIGH SIDE...INSTABILITY SHOULD NOT BE
AN ISSUE/LIMITING FACTOR TO CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TODAY.

PWATS SHOULD COME DOWN GIVEN THE MID AND UPPER LEVEL DRYING IN THE
FORECAST...BELOW 1 INCH...BUT HEAVY DOWNPOURS ARE STILL POSSIBLE.
FREEZING LEVEL DROPS TO AROUND 10KFT TODAY...ADDING TO A HAIL
THREAT. DRY LEVELS ALOFT ADD TO THE WIND GUST POTENTIAL WITH
STORMS.

TURNING TO THE FLOODING THREAT...CWA HAS SEEN PLENTY OF RAIN TO GO
AROUND OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS...SO THIS NEEDS TO BE WATCHED
INTO THE SHORT TERM. NOT PLANNING ON A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
NOW...AS MOVING CONVECTION SHOULD NOT CAUSE ISSUES. HOWEVER...ANY
SORT OF CELL TRAINING OR MULTIPLE HITS WILL NOT TAKE LONG TO
CREATE ISSUES. STEERING FLOW OF 30-40 KTS SHOULD HELP MOVE
CONVECTION IN AND OUT OF AREAS FAIRLY EFFICIENTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 280555
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
155 AM EDT THU APR 28 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS ACROSS THE SOUTH
THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL BOUNDARY. KEEPING
AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS EVENING. OFFICE
RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE PERIOD THIS EVENING.
A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH AND EAST THIS EVENING
AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE
TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
DECAYING LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS NOW PUSHING INTO THE NORTHEAST
KENTUCKY REGION TOWARDS HTS...AND A LEADING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD FROM SOUTHEAST KENTUCKY INTO
THE COAL FIELDS TOWARDS CRW.

CRW...THINKING IS THAT AN OUTFLOW BOUNDARY VISIBLE ON RADAR
IMAGERY AHEAD OF THE AFOREMENTIONED SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BRING THE
VISIBILITIES FROM IFR TO MVFR WITH A MODEST 5 TO 10 KT
WIND...LIKELY OUT OF THE SOUTHWEST SHORTLY AFTER 06Z. ONLY USING
VCTS GIVEN THE OVERALL DECAYING NATURE OF THE CONVECTION TONIGHT.

OVERALL...THE CONVECTIVE TREND CONTINUES TODAY...BUT THE BETTER
FORCING PUSHES NORTH OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING...TAKING THE
HIGHEST CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WITH IT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/28/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT 23Z...STALLED JUST SOUTH OF A KHTS TO KCRW
LINE. ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCT +SHRA AND +TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT...WITH THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS AREA...WITH ADDL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 07Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
16-18Z...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
733 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEERY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND
THE 12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...AT 23Z...STALLED JUST SOUTH OF A KHTS TO KCRW
LINE. ALONG THE BOUNDARY...SCT +SHRA AND +TSRA...WITH BRIEF MVFR
CONDITIONS. COULD BE AREAS OF MVFR FOG TONIGHT...WITH THE MOIST
BOUNDARY LAYER...PARTICULARLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OVERNIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE PUSHES EAST
TOWARDS AREA...WITH ADDL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING...PARTICULARLY AFTER 07Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR AND IFR
CONDITIONS IN STORMS.

BULK OF PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA AFTER
16-18Z...HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AREA WIDE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING
HOURS...WITH STRONG GUSTY WINDS...HAIL...AND HEAVY DOWNPOURS
POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION...AND ASSOCIATED
RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY FROM CURRENT FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY. IFR POSSIBLE SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY WITH ADDITIONAL
ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272155
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
545 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP GRIDS A BIT...KEEPING HIGHER POPS
ACROSS THE SOUTH THIS EVENING ALONG AND SOUTH OF STALLED FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. KEEPING AN EYE ON TRENDS/PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS THIS
EVENING. OFFICE RECEIVED ABOUT 0.25 INCHES IN A 15-20 MINUTE
PERIOD THIS EVENING. A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT COUNTIES TO OUR NORTH
AND EAST THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...WHERE HEAVIER RAINS FELL
YESTERDAY. WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR...AND ISSUE ANY WATER
HEADLINES AS DEEM NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EDT 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272054
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
454 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272054
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
454 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT STALLED NORTHERN KENTUCKY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS
BACK NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY
THROUGH FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 272007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
407 PM EDT WED APR 27 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONTED STALLED NORTHERN KY TO CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA LIFTS BACK
NORTH OVERNIGHT...THEN WAFFLES BACK/FORTH IN OUR VICINITY THROUGH
FRIDAY...PROVIDING ROUNDS OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS OF 18Z...STALLED SHALLOW SURFACE FRONT NEAR HTS-CRW TO N OF
BKW. DIFFICULT POP AND QPF FORECAST TO SAY THE LEAST. NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE...AT 18Z...TO GO WITH ANY WIDESPREAD FLASH FLOOD WATCH
OVERNIGHT. DO NOT EXPECT CONVECTION TO ALIGN WITH THE FLOW LIKE
YESTERDAY...BUT STILL HAVE LOCALIZED PROBLEMS. SO IF THESE
DOWNPOURS HIT THE WETTER AREAS FROM LAST NIGHT...COULD SEE
FLOODING. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR FOR ANY POSSIBLE FFA FOR
TONIGHT.

WILL INSERT SOME HEAVY RAIN FOR OVERNIGHT...AS PRECIPITABLE WATER
INCREASES TO AROUND 1.25 TO 1.5 INCHES...BEFORE TRENDING DOWN AGAIN
LATE THURSDAY.

THINKING SCATTERED CONVECTION DEVELOPS THIS AFTERNOON NEAR THE FRONT
AND SOUTH.  THEN THE MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES 00Z TO 06Z
WITH STEERING FLOW AND LOW LEVEL FLOW BACKING AHEAD OF IT.  12Z MODEL
SOLUTIONS SEEM A BIT SLOW...COMPARED TO THE 18Z RADAR...LIFTING THE
DISTURBANCE NORTHEAST.

SO MORE DEVELOPMENT OVERNIGHT FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ESPECIALLY
IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.

WILL BASE FORECAST ON THE FRONT LIFTING TOWARD THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
BY 12Z THURSDAY.  AS A RESULT...WILL INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURE A BIT
IN THE NORTH ON THURSDAY...BUT A SHARP GRADIENT AS YOU VENTURE
FURTHER NORTH.  HAVE POPS DECREASING IN THE MORNING AS THE MID LEVEL
SUPPORT PULLS NORTH.

MORE INSTABILITY DEVELOPS ON THURSDAY AFTERNOON...COMPARED TO
TODAY...OVER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN COUNTIES DESPITE THE LOWER
PRECIPITABLE WATER.  SO DIURNAL CONVECTION SHOULD REFIRE...WITH
POSSIBLE SEVERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ALL MODELS SHOW A FINAL WAVE SLIDING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT ALONG
THE SURFACE BOUNDARY THAT HAS BEEN LINGERING IN THE REGION MOST OF
THE WEEK. INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY ACROSS THE NORTH WITH THIS. THE
HIGHER RESOLUTION OF THE NAM EVEN SHOWS A DECENT VORT MAX CROSSING
DURING THIS TIME. OTHERWISE...PRECIPITATION TAPERS OFF FROM WEST TO
EAST LATE THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...LINGERING THE LONGEST ACROSS
THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV. SO...MUCH OF FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT LOOKS DRY...BEFORE MOISTURE BEGINS TO INCREASE AGAIN SATURDAY
AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES THROUGH THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. SPED UP POPS
WITH THIS FEATURE PRETTY GOOD...AND MAY EVEN STILL BE A LITTLE SLOW
BASED ON 12Z MODEL RUNS. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE
FORECAST. BIGGEST CHANGE WAS TO GO A COUPLE DEGREES WARMER FRIDAY
NIGHT WITH CLOUDS ALREADY ON THE INCREASE BY THE PREDAWN HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
UNSETTLED WEATHER IS LIKELY TO START THE PERIOD AS YET ANOTHER
SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE PUSHES IN. THIS IS LIKELY TO BRING ANOTHER
COPIOUS ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO THE AREA...AS
SURFACE LOW PRESSURE TRACKS THROUGH THE AREA ON SUNDAY. THE LOW IS
ONLY PROGGED TO BE NEAR STANDARD ATMOSPHERE MSLP...BUT DECENT
MOISTURE INFLOW ON 40 KTS MID LEVEL FLOW...AND UPPER DIVERGENCE
COULD LEAD TO STRONG THUNDERSTORMS AND POSSIBLE EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL.

MODELS CONCUR ON THE WEATHER SETTLING DOWN EARLY NEXT WEEK...AS
THE NORTHERN STREAM DOMINATES...SENDING CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. WAS A
BIT LEARY IN TRENDING DRIER INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK...AND THE
12Z ECMWF SURE ENOUGH THROWS A MONKEY WRENCH BACK INTO THE
FORECAST...WITH YET ANOTHER SOUTHERN STREAM WAVE ON TUESDAY...AND
THE NORTHERN STREAM NOT BECOMING A FACTOR UNTIL LATE IN THE
PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES CLOSE TO THE LATEST GUIDANCE AND BLENDS...A LITTLE
LOWER ESPECIALLY ON LOWS EARLY TO MID WEEK...OTHERWISE CLOSE TO
PREVIOUS PACKAGE. HOWEVER...MODEL VARIATION ON THE POSITION OF THE
FRONT AND WAVES ALONG IT COULD LEAD TO LARGE BUST POTENTIAL.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
CONFIDENCE LOWERED TO LOW. HARD TO DETERMINE COVERAGE OF AFTERNOON
CONVECTION FROM HTS-CRW-BKW ON SOUTH...THEN HARD TO TIME OVERNIGHT
CONVECTION AND COVERAGE...AS IT LIFTS NORTH TOWARD PKB-CKB AND EKN.
MODELS SEEM TO BE A BIT SLOW LIFTING NORTH...COMPARED TO 18Z RADAR.

IN THE MEANTIME...HAVE DRY CONDITIONS WITH CEILINGS DIURNALLY
LIFTING THIS AFTERNOON OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.

PLUS WITH THE HIGHER DEW POINTS...WILL MOUNTAIN VALLEYS LIKE ELKINS
SEE FOG FORM BEFORE THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION REACHES THE MOUNTAINS.

OVERALL...EXPECT LOW BASED CU AT MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT AGL SCATTERED
TO BROKEN WITH LAYERS ABOVE. LOCAL IFR IN CONVECTION WITH VSBY BLO 3
MILES AND CEILINGS AOB 2 THSD FT.

BASING FORECAST ON SURFACE FRONT LIFTING NORTH TO NEAR KUNI-KPKB-
KCKB BY 12Z THURSDAY. LEFTOVER MORNING SHOWERS EXIT TO THE
NORTH...BUT THEN INSTABILITY INCREASES BY 18Z THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY
SOUTH OF PKB-CKB.  SO TALLER CONVECTION EXPECTED THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE ROUNDS OF CONVECTION COULD VARY.
FOG MAY FORM IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
AREAS...WITH VSBY LOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...KTB





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