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000
FXUS61 KRLX 251534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EAST OF THE
OH RIVER. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z...ALTHOUGH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CREATING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY...AND IN MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1134 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MADE MINOR CHANGES TO SKY GRIDS SHOWING MORE CLEARING EAST OF THE
OH RIVER. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z...ALTHOUGH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CREATING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY...AND IN MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 251016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z...ALTHOUGH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CREATING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY...AND IN MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 251016
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
616 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
12Z MONDAY THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z...ALTHOUGH
ISOLD-SCT SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO EXIST CREATING BRIEF
RESTRICTIONS.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY...AND IN MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS SUCH AS AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION MAY DIFFER FROM
FORECAST. FOG MAY BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT THAN CURRENTLY
FORECAST.

.AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250814
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
414 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS TAKES CONTROL AS UPPER RIDGE
SHIFTS EAST. UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FCST AREA REMAINS IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW FLOW BETWEEN A TENACIOUS
ATLANTIC RIDGE...AND TROUGHINESS TO THE W...MOST OF THE PERIOD.
RIPPLES IN THE UPPER LEVEL SW FLOW WILL FOCUS WHEN AND WHERE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE MOST LIKELY. WHILE CONVECTION IN
THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS WILL ALSO BE DIURNALLY DRIVEN...THE
PRESENCE OF THESE DISTURBANCES MEANS CONVECTION WILL NOT BE
LIMITED TO ONLY THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. HOWEVER...ANY
STRONG/SEVERE STORMS WILL BE IN THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING WHEN
THEY CAN TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THE HIGHER BOUYANCY OF 1000-1500 J / KG
OF CAPE. WILL CONTINUE HWO MENTION WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK TUE AND
WED WHILE ALSO COVERING FOR HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

THE GFS HAS ONE RIPPLE OVER THE AREA WED MORNING WHILE THE NAM IS
FASTER AND TIES THIS RIPPLE TO THE LATE DAY DIURNAL TIMING TUE.
FCST HAS GREATEST LIKELIHOOD DURING BOTH OF THESE TIMES WHICH
CLOSELY REFLECTS PREVIOUS PACKAGE. THESE TIMING ISSUES BECOME EVEN
MORE DIFFICULT WITH TIME BUT...ON THU...HEIGHT RISES IN RESPONSE
TO THE MAIN S/W TROUGH LIFTING OUT MAY ACTUAL LEAD TO DECREASING
COVERAGE OF CONVECTION DURING THE DAY.

TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN LINE WITH HIGHER GUIDANCE DURING THE DAY
AND CLOSE TO GUIDANCE AT NT...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS ON
EITHER.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250627
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS AS UPPER RIDGE SHIFTS EAST.
UPPER DISTURBANCES WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE TO THE EAST...AND UPPER
RIDGE...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EASTWARD TODAY. DEW POINTS ARE
EXPECTED TO RISE INTO THE 60S TODAY...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE
WARM SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CREATE RATHER SUMMER LIKE CONDITIONS
TODAY. SEVERAL UPPER DISTURBANCES RIDING OVER THE RIDGE TODAY WILL
INTERACT WITH THE WARM...HUMID...UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE TO CREATE
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT AREAS IN WV. BRIEF HEAVY
DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH ANY THUNDERSTORM...AS THE
ATMOSPHERE BECOMES INCREASINGLY MOIST...WITH PWS PROGGED TO RISE
TO AROUND 1.5 INCHES ACROSS THE WEST BY AFTERNOON.

SOME WANE IN ACTIVITY TONIGHT WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...BUT WILL
REVAMP AGAIN TUESDAY MORNING AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE IS PROGGED TO
MOVE NORTHEAST THROUGH THE AREA. COULD BE SOME AREAS OF FOG MONDAY
NIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN DURING THE DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
120 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURBANCE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME
MID DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250520
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
120 AM EDT MON MAY 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE...NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURBANCE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME
MID DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE FROM THE WEST AS
MOISTURE INCREASES ACROSS THE AREA. WITH THE INCREASING
MOISTURE...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP...MAINLY AFTER 18-20Z...AND MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO...EASTERN KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES. ANY
SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AND
GUSTY WINDS...WITH BRIEF MVFR AND IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE.

BULK OF CONVECTION WILL WANE GENERALLY AFTER 01Z.

FOG MAY DEVELOP TOMORROW NIGHT TOWARDS END OF TAF
PERIOD...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN/THUNDERSTORMS ARE
OBSERVED DURING THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250234 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID
DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL
INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND
VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250234 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID
DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL
INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND
VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 250220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID
DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL
INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND
VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 250220
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
NO BIG CHANGES IN THE LATE EVENING UPDATED...AS WE RESIDE IN THE
LAST OF THE DRY AIR OVERNIGHT.

VAD WINDS AROUND 02Z BLOWING AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS AT 925 MB LEVEL.
SHOULD MAINTAIN A S AND SE BREEZING ON HILLTOPS AND RIDGES THROUGH
THE NIGHT...INCLUDING THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU AROUND BKW. SOME
VALLEYS IN WV AND SW VA HAVE STILL DECOUPLED WITH CALM WINDS AT
02Z. YET...COULD NOT RULE OUT THE WIND MIXING DOWN INTO SOME OF
THOSE VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...SINCE 925 MB MAY INCREASE SLIGHTLY. SO
MINIMUM TEMPERATURES ARE TOUGH.

FIGURING DISTURNACE NEAR BNA AT 02Z WILL WEAKEN...MAY BE SOME MID
DECK BY DAWN IN THE HTS TRI STATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH
A TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE
GULF OF MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR
AFTERNOON CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER
LEVEL TROUGH SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY AS WEAK DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH
ENHANCED SHOWER ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN
PLACE...WILL CARRY CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN
INHERITED FORECAST. NO REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST
TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL
INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z MONDAY. BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT
ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A
RELATIVE MINIMUM IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN
KENTUCKY...AND HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND
VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO
AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 242347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY AIR TONIGHT.

IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO POPS.  DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. OTHERWISE...A S/SE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON HILLTOPS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING BKW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALSO INCREASED WIND A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB/JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 242347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY AIR TONIGHT.

IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO POPS.  DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. OTHERWISE...A S/SE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON HILLTOPS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING BKW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALSO INCREASED WIND A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB/JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 242347
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
740 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY AIR TONIGHT.

IN THE EARLY EVENING UPDATE...NO CHANGES TO POPS.  DID LOWER MINIMUM TEMPERATURE
IN THE SHELTERED MOUNTAIN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...INCLUDING THE UPPER GREENBRIER IN
POCAHONTAS COUNTY. OTHERWISE...A S/SE BREEZE IS LIKELY ON HILLTOPS AND
THE SOUTHERN PLATEAU INCLUDING BKW THROUGH THE NIGHT.

ALSO INCREASED WIND A BIT IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES ON MEMORIAL DAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LAST OF THE DRY/CLEAN AIR TO START OFF WITH.

HAVE JUST PATCHES OF MID AND HIGH CLOUDS AOA 10 THSD FT AGL INCREASING 06Z TO 12Z
MONDAY.  BREEZE STIRRING THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS HILL TOPS AND SOUTHERN PLATEAU
INCLUDING KBKW.

FIGURING CU DEVELOPING OVER THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES AND MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES AFTER 15Z MONDAY AT 3 TO 5 THSD FT AGL...BUT MAY BE A RELATIVE MINIMUM
IN CU COVERAGE CKB-CRW UNTIL AFTER 21Z.

SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM POSSIBLE AFTER 21Z MONDAY IN EEASTERN KENTUCKY...AND
HTS VCNTY WITH CEILINGS AROUND 3 TO 4 THSD FT AND VSBY NEAR 3 MILES...LIFTING UP
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO SE OHIO AROUND 00Z TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...LOCAL IFR IN SHOWERS/STORMS TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY.

&&

RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...KMC/KTB/JMV
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...KTB/JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO
SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE
WEST TO DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...AND
IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST...AS MOISTURE AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KTS MONDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR REMAINDER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING MEMORIAL DAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THAT AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVAILING...CIGS AOA 4000 FEET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO
SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE
WEST TO DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...AND
IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST...AS MOISTURE AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KTS MONDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR REMAINDER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING MEMORIAL DAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THAT AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVAILING...CIGS AOA 4000 FEET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241726
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM AND MORE HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES...WILL BRING INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS THIS UPCOMING WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE...MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...MEMORIAL DAY AFTERNOON. THERE IS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
INDICATING THAT THIS PERIOD WILL BE A TRANSITION INTO AN
INCREASINGLY WET PATTERN. THE UPPER RIDGE THAT HAS DOMINATED THE
EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION...WILL SHIFT EAST AND ALLOW WEAK
DISTURBANCES TO AFFECT THE WESTERN PORTION OF OUR AREA MONDAY
AFTERNOON. INCREASINGLY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL ALSO BE PUMPED
NORTHWARD AS THE ASSOCIATED SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM ALSO
SHIFTS EAST. THE COMBINATION OF THESE FEATURES WILL RESULT IN
INCREASING CHANCES FOR CONVECTION MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER
MONDAY AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...WITH NO LOW LEVEL BOUNDARY TO FOCUS
CONVECTION...POPS MONDAY AFTERNOON WILL RANGE FROM CHANCE IN THE
WEST TO DRY IN THE MOUNTAINS. TONIGHT WILL REMAIN RAIN FREE...AND
IT WILL BE A MILDER NIGHT...ESPECIALLY WEST...AS MOISTURE AND
PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASES. THE CLOUDS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
INCREASE FROM THE WEST LATER TONIGHT...AND OVERSPREAD THE AREA
FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE DAY MONDAY. THIS WILL KEEP FORECAST
HIGH TEMPERATURES MONDAY FROM BEING MUCH WARMER THAN TODAY...BUT
IT WILL BE MORE HUMID.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA...ALLOWING FOR A
MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO DEVELOP. LIGHT SOUTH WINDS TONIGHT...
INCREASING TO 6 TO 12 KTS MONDAY. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR REMAINDER THIS
AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST
AFTER 09Z TONIGHT. CLOUDS LOWER AND THICKEN DURING MEMORIAL DAY
WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS MAINLY WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER AS AN
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OVER THAT AREA...BUT VFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE PREVAILING...CIGS AOA 4000 FEET.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241707
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
107 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241707
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
107 PM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP LAYER SOUTHERLY TO SOUTHWEST FLOW SETTLES IN AS 5H RIDGE AXIS
SHIFTS TO THE EAST. THIS LEAVES SFC HIGH PRESSURE TO OUR EAST WITH A
TRANSITION TO A WARM MOIST AIRMASS AS FLOW OPENS UP FROM THE GULF OF
MEXICO. WILL SEE A GRADUAL UPSWING IN CHANCES FOR AFTERNOON
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH
SWINGS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AS WEAK
DISTURBANCES RIPPLE THROUGH THE SW FLOW...WITH ENHANCED SHOWER
ACTIVITY. WITH GENERALLY UNSTABLE CONDITIONS IN PLACE...WILL CARRY
CONVECTION INTO THE NIGHT HOURS...AS WAS IN INHERITED FORECAST. NO
REAL CHANGES IN THE OFFING FOR FCST TEMPERATURE TRENDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LATEST MODELS SHOW GREAT LAKES TROUGH DIGGING A LITTLE DEEPER INTO
5H RIDGE...HELPING TO KNOCK IT DOWN MORE THAN PREVIOUSLY FORECAST.
FOR OUR SENSIBLE WX...THIS GENERALLY MEANS A WARM AND WET
SCENARIO...WITH A DIRTY RIDGE...BECOMING A REALLY DIRTY RIDGE...THAT
IS EVEN MORE WASHED OUT. FOLLOWED WPC GUIDANCE...WHICH CARRIES
GREATER AND MORE BROADBRUSHED POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241448
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1048 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. FORECAST ON TRACK.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING
UPPER HEIGHTS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY
DURING THE NEAR TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME
AFTERNOON CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITY SEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
15Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE CENTER SHIFTS EAST OF THE AREA. SOUTH WINDS
GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THIS AFTERNOON...SCT-BKN
MID AND HIGH CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY LOW VFR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY LOW VFR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY LOW VFR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 241025
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
625 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANY PATCHY LOW VFR VALLEY FOG WILL DISSIPATE AFTER 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED. SCT-BKN MID AND HIGH
CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST AFTER 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 240830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. CONVECTION
BECOMES MORE COMMON DURING THE SHORT WORK WEEK IN AN INCREASINGLY
WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS...UNDER WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VERY WARM AND HUMID PATTERN SETTING UP IN DEEP LAYER S TO SW
FLOW...WITH PW VALUES OF 1.50 TO 1.75 IN AND SFC DEW POINTS IN THE
MID 60S BECOMING COMMON. UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGHS COMING OUT OF A
GENERAL AREA OF TROUGHINESS OVER THE WESTERN CONUS...LIFT AND
MINOR OUT AS THEY APPROACH THE FCST AREA FROM THE W...ON ACCOUNT
OF A VERY TENACIOUS ATLANTIC RIDGE.

THE INITIAL S/W TROUGH MINORS OUT QUITE A BIT AS IT APPROACHES ON
MEMORIAL DAY...AS THE RIDGE FLEXES ITS MUSCLE. IT LOOKS LIKE
THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OUTDOOR HOLIDAY ACTIVITIES WILL BE ABLE
TO DODGE A POP UP AFTERNOON OR EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM. THE
NEXT S/W TROUGH IS PROGGED TO MAKE BETTER IN ROADS TUE NT AND WED
ALTHOUGH IT TOO WILL MINOR OUT. THUS HAVE A BETTER CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THESE PERIODS INCLUDING OVERNIGHT TUE NT
AND WED MORNING.

WHILE THE FORCING MAY PROVE TO BE WEAK...IT WILL NOT TAKE MUCH TO
GET CONVECTION GOING GIVEN THE AMOUNT OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE...AND
IT WILL BE TOUGH TO GET RID OF ANY CONVECTION OVERNIGHT ONCE IT
FORMS IN THE  AND EVENING. PROGGED BOUYANCY OF AT LEAST A GRAND
J/KG OF CAPE AND 30 KTS MEAN LOW TO MID LEVEL FLOW IS CONSISTENT
WITH SPC MARGINAL RISK FOR DAY 3 SO WILL INCLUDE A LOW PROBABILITYSEVERE
THREAT IN THE HWO..AND ADD THE POSSIBILITY FOR LOCALIZED DUMPERS
AS WELL.

NOT MUCH CHANGES NEED TO TEMPERATURES...NEAR HIGH END OF GUIDANCE
FOR HIGHS AND CLOSE TO A GUIDANCE BLEND FOR LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER
VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 240634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 240634
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
SURFACE HIGH TO THE EAST...ALONG WITH BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS WILL
RESULT IN INCREASING TEMPERATURES AND HUMIDITY DURING THE NEAR
TERM AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. OUTSIDE OF SOME AFTERNOON
CU...EXPECTING ANOTHER MOSTLY SUNNY DAY...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL
INCREASE LATE TONIGHT FROM THE WEST OUT AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
DISTURBANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240531
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT SUN MAY 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SOME PATCHY MVFR
VALLEY FOG MAY FORM 08-12Z IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS INCLUDING KCRW
AND KEKN. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS
EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 240234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 240234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 232321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 232321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 232321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 232321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
721 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS
OF SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER
NIGHTS AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH
CENTER SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKING OVER WITH A CLEAR...CALM NIGHT IN STORE.
GUIDANCE IS MIXED ON WHETHER FOG WILL FORM AT EKN TONIGHT...STAYED
CLOSE TO THE LAV WITH MVFR FOG FOR SEVERAL HOURS DURING THE PRE
DAWN. OTHERWISE VFR EXPECTED WITH LIGHT LOW LEVEL WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING AND DENSITY AT EKN MAY VARY.

.AFTER 00Z MONDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231848
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER NIGHTS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231848
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WITH A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS
MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... QUITE TRANQUIL AS UPPER RIDGING ALOFT
BUILDS OVER THE EASTERN THIRD OF THE NATION. THIS WILL BRING LOTS OF
SUNSHINE AND WARMER CONDITIONS EACH DAY...INCLUDING MILDER NIGHTS AS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SLOWLY INCREASE WITH THE SURFACE HIGH CENTER
SHIFTING TO THE EAST COAST

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/JMV
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231748
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...

DECREASING MID-HIGH CLOUDS THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231727
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 PM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
5H RIDGE AXIS CROSSES SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY WITH SFC HIGH
ANCHORED OVER THE EASTERN ATLANTIC...A BERMUDA HIGH FORECAST
SCENARIO. THIS LEAVES FORECAST AREA UNDER MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW WITH A GRADUAL MOISTENING OF THE ATMOSPHERIC COLUMN LEADING
INTO THE NEW WEEK. EFFECTS OF THE INCREASING MOISTURE WILL MAINLY
BE FELT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON...WHERE THE BEST CHANCE OF MAINLY
DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT TAKES PLACE. ACTIVITY MAY
BE FURTHER ENHANCED WITH THE APPROACH OF SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM THE
WEST.

TEMPERATURE WILL GENERALLY BE WITHIN THE NORMAL RANGE THIS
PERIOD...WITH A SLIGHT MODERATION IN DAYTIME HIGHS TUESDAY AS
MORE CLOUDS WILL BE PRESENT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE BECOMES MORE OF A FACTOR IN DETERMINING OUR SENSIBLE
WEATHER. KEPT CHC OR BETTER POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD AS IMPULSES
WILL BE RIDING NORTH IN SW FLOW THIS PERIOD. DIURNAL TRENDS BECOME
LESS OF A FACTOR AS IMPULSES COULD HELP DRIVE CONVECTION INTO THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS. THUS CARRIED SOME POPS DURING THE OVERNIGHTS AS
WELL. MAINLY USED WPC GUIDANCE FOR TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS...DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...KMC
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231459
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS...DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARISLBE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 231459
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM
FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO
EXTREME SOUTHERN ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER
SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE
NORTH...WITH DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST
VA IN THE UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
15Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...

SCT-BKN MID-HIGH CLOUDS...DECREASING THIS AFTERNOON...GENERALLY VFR
MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT AND SUNDAY MORNING. EXCEPTION...PATCHY MVFR/IFR
RIVER/VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE 09Z-12Z SUNDAY...MAINLY AT EKN. LIGHT AND
VARISLBE WINDS THRU PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
AT KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY MVFR VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY
AT KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230717
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED MAINLY AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK...AS WEAK DISTURBANCES CROSS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
BERMUDA HIGH REMAINS ANCHORED THROUGH THE LATTER PORTION OF THE
HOLIDAY WEEKEND...BEFORE EDGING SLOWLY EWD TUE-WED. UPPER LEVEL
RIDGE CROSSES THE FCST AREA DURING THIS TIME...ALLOWING AN UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGH TO APPROACH FROM THE W MON NT THROUGH TUE NT. A S
TO SW FLOW OF INCREASINGLY WARM AND HUMID AIR RESULTS THROUGHOUT
THE PERIOD.

THE FCST STARTS DRY SUNDAY BEFORE A GRADUAL INCREASE IN THE
CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION THEREAFTER. BY MON...MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY INCREASE ENOUGH FOR THE CHANCE FOR AN AFTERNOON OR
EVENING SHOWER OR THUNDERSHOWER. THE NAM SHOWS A SFC TROUGH OVER
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY MON WHICH MAY HELP TO FOCUS CONVECTION
THERE VS FARTHER E.

THE APPROACH OF THE UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH FROM THE W PREVENTS
THE CHANCE FOR1 PRECIPITATION FROM COMPLETELY VANISHING MON
NT...AND PROVIDES FOR A BETTER CHANCE FOR PRECIPITATION TUE
THROUGH TUE NT. HAVE HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER THE LOWLANDS TUE
AFTERNOON AND NT...A LITTLE LOWER FARTHER E....OVER THE MOUNTAINS.
THE GFS IS A LITTLE MORE ENERGETIC THAN THE ECMWF AND WOULD
SUGGEST AT LEAST LIKELY POPS BY TUE NT.

TEMPERATURES MODERATE TO ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND...BEFORE LEVELING OFF...THE WARMEST
AFTERNOON BEING MON AS CLOUDS BECOME MORE OF A FACTOR BY TUE.
MADE LITTLE CHANGE OVERALL IN LEANING TOWARD THE HIGHER SIDE OF
GUIDANCE...THE GFS BASED GUIDANCE SEEMING A BIT LOW MON-TUE.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER O6Z SUNDAY...
WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PACKAGE. COLD
FRONT AT 06Z APPEARS TO HAVE MADE IT TO EXTREME SOUTHERN
ZONES...WITH SOME CLOUD COVER CONTINUING TO LINGER SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. DRIER AIR IS TRYING TO FILTER IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WITH
DEW POINTS ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE WEST VA IN THE
UPPER 30S.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL SLIDE TO THE
EAST TODAY...CREATING A SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. THE NAM
AND GFS ARE INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF AN ISOLD SHOWER ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON IN THE SELY FLOW...BUT
THINKING JUST SCT CU FIELD MORE LIKELY...SO MAINTAINED A DRY
FORECAST.

WITH THE SOUTHERLY FLOW...AND ABUNDANT SUNSHINE EXPECTED IN THE
DRY AIR MASS...ELECTED TO BUMP DAY TIME MAX TEMPERATURES UP A
COUPLE OF DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 230529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT SAT MAY 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL FOR A DRY AND WARM MEMORIAL DAY
WEEKEND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR EVENING
THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD. SOME
SCATTERED AFTERNOON CU...GENERALLY AFTER 16Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS
THE HIGHER TERRAIN. COULD BE AN ISOLD SHOWER OVER HIGHER TERRAIN
COUNTIES 18-23Z.

PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE TOWARDS 06Z SUNDAY...PARTICULARLY AT
KEKN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&


WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JS/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 222329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ECHOS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR. CKB HAS RECORDED 0.01 IN. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY TO COOL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS A
TOUCH. ONGOING FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. WE DO HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT NOW...AND INCLUDED VCSH
WITH THESE. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN VFR AS THE SINK SOUTH AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CKB DID GET MEASURABLE PRECIP...SO
INSERTED SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME
BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
IN VALLEY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 222329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ECHOS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR. CKB HAS RECORDED 0.01 IN. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY TO COOL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS A
TOUCH. ONGOING FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. WE DO HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT NOW...AND INCLUDED VCSH
WITH THESE. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN VFR AS THE SINK SOUTH AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CKB DID GET MEASURABLE PRECIP...SO
INSERTED SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME
BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
IN VALLEY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 222329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ECHOS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR. CKB HAS RECORDED 0.01 IN. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY TO COOL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS A
TOUCH. ONGOING FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. WE DO HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT NOW...AND INCLUDED VCSH
WITH THESE. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN VFR AS THE SINK SOUTH AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CKB DID GET MEASURABLE PRECIP...SO
INSERTED SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME
BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
IN VALLEY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 222329
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
729 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...EXPANDED ISOLATED SHOWERS AND ADDED A BUFFER ZONE OF
SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH THE ECHOS
CURRENTLY ON RADAR. CKB HAS RECORDED 0.01 IN. MADE SOME MINOR
TWEAKS TO OVERNIGHT LOWS...MAINLY TO COOL THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS A
TOUCH. ONGOING FROST ADVISORY STILL LOOKS GOOD.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA
THIS EVENING AND WASH OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS
FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE
THEN BUILDS IN OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE
30S OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP.
FROST COULD BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT
FOR THAT AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND
WARMER WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FAIRLY QUIET AVIATION FORECAST. WE DO HAVE SOME VERY LIGHT
SHOWERS/SPRINKLES ACROSS THE NORTH RIGHT NOW...AND INCLUDED VCSH
WITH THESE. EXPECT THEM TO REMAIN VFR AS THE SINK SOUTH AND
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING. CKB DID GET MEASURABLE PRECIP...SO
INSERTED SOME MVFR FOG TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH IT MAY BE TOUGH TO COME
BY AS A WEAK COLD FRONT SINKS SOUTH AND DRIER AIR OOZES IN. VFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ADDITIONAL AREAS OF FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT
IN VALLEY AREAS THAT GET RAIN THIS EVENING...BEFORE DRIER AIR
WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER OOZ SUNDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS/MZ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 221804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH
OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD
BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT
AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 221804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH
OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD
BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT
AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS




000
FXUS61 KRLX 221804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT FRI MAY 22 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TONIGHT. A DRY MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND
IS ON TAP WITH A WARMING TREND. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED AFTERNOON OR
EVENING THUNDERSHOWERS MOST DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT IS WILL MOVE OVER THE AREA THIS EVENING AND WASH
OUT. MOISTURE IS VERY LIMITED WITH THIS FRONT AND SHOULD ONLY
PRODUCE SOME CLOUDS. COOL DRY HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP INTO THE 30S OVER THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AND COULD SEE SOME FROST DEVELOP. FROST COULD
BE WIDESPREAD, SO WENT WITH FROST ADVISORY FOR TONIGHT FOR THAT
AREA. THIS HIGH PRESSURE WILL MODERATE AND BRING DRY AND WARMER
WEATHER IN FOR THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE FIRMLY IN CONTROL FOR THE WEEKEND...NICE WEATHER IS
EXPECTED ALONG WITH A WARMING TREND THROUGH THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.
AS THE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE EAST...MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE
WITH SOUTHERLY FLOW. NO SURFACE FOCUS FOR PRECIP DEVELOPMENT...BUT
SOME MODELS STILL TRYING TO KICK OF SOME DIURNAL CONVECTION IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO RIVER VALLEY. WENT WITH SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
SHOWERS THERE...BUT MAY BE TO HIGH ON POPS. AT ANY RATE...MEMORIAL
DAY WILL NOT BE A WASHOUT...BUT COULD GET A STRAY SHOWER ALONG OR
WEST OF THE OHIO RIVER.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DIRTY RIDGE TAKING OVER...ALTHOUGH MOST OF THE IMPULSES LOOK TO
STAY TO OUR NORTH AND WEST. STILL...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES TO
INCREASE WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE SCATTERED THUNDERSHOWERS ACROSS CWA
EACH AFTERNOON. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO WPC GUIDANCE...HOWEVER
CAPPED POPS BELOW LIKELY TO KEEP SCATTERED WORDING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AS WEAK
COLD FRONT WASHES OUT OVER THE AREA AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES
CONTROL. SOME VFR CLOUDS MAY BE ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONT
BEFORE IT DISSIPATES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY DEVELOP TONIGHT IN VALLEY AREAS
BEFORE DRIER AIR WORKS IN OVERNIGHT.

.AFTER 18Z SATURDAY... WIDESPREAD IFR NOT EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JS





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