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000
FXUS61 KRLX 031526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LETTING MUCH OF THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

645 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING OUT
OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE AS
IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. ANY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NORTH WILL END BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV/30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 031526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES. LETTING MUCH OF THE FREEZING
RAIN ADVISORY EXPIRE AT 10 AM.

645 AM UPDATE...
PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING OUT
OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE AS
IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
15Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON...WITH VFR
CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL IFR
CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. ANY VERY LIGHT
FREEZING RAIN NORTH WILL END BY 18Z AS TEMPERATURES RISE ABOVE
FREEZING.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM 7 PM EST THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV/30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 031053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...

PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING
OUT OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE
AS IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...AT HTS/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL BE SHORT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 031053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...

PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING
OUT OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE
AS IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...AT HTS/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL BE SHORT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 031053
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
553 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
645 AM UPDATE...

PRECIP GRADUALLY TRYING TO FILL IN UPSTREAM...BUT STILL FALLING
OUT OF A MID DECK. HRRR INSISTS ON THIS EXPANDING AND REACHING THE
GROUND INTO SE OH IN THE 13 TO 15Z TIME FRAME. WILL CONT HEADLINE
AS IS FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP
BREAKING OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH
EXTENT OF PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A
CONCERN FOR FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE
VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING
OFFICES...ELECTED TO EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH
AND PORTIONS OF W WV ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW
HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING
OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT
PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER.
WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N
MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THRU 12Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG ON E SLOPES. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...AT HTS/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL BE SHORT.

THERE WILL BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON. LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR
CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS EKN AMID DOWNSLOPE WINDS. IFR
CONDITIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP ON E SLOPES INCLUDING KBKW THIS
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR OR WORSE.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 030939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 030939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
425 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. FRONT STALLS
TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY
NIGHT. SNOW SHOWERS LINGER ON THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS ARE STILL IN DISAGREEMENT WITH HOW FAR SOUTH THE COLDER AIR
WILL PUSH INTO THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. THIS IS CRITICAL FOR THE
TYPE OF PRECIPITATION THAT WILL OCCUR WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH A WAVE
MOVING ALONG THE FRONT. ALSO DUE TO THE DIFFERENCES IN THE HANDLING
OF THE COLD AIR...PLACEMENT OF HIGHER PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS VARY
CONSIDERABLY. THIS LEADS TO A LOW CONFIDENCE FORECAST. NAM/SREF WOULD
INDICATE SNOW IN CENTRAL OHIO...WITH A LARGE BAND OF SIGNIFICANT
AMOUNTS OF SLEET FROM NE KY/S OH INTO CENTRAL WV AND THE WV
MOUNTAINS. GFS AND ECMWF ARE MUCH COLDER AND WOULD PRODUCE
SIGNIFICANTLY MORE SNOW INSTEAD OF SLEET. IN ANY CASE...FEEL THAT A
WINTER STORM WATCH IS WARRANTED AT THIS POINT...ALTHOUGH THE TYPE OF
WEATHER IS UNCERTAIN. WILL NOT ISSUE FOR THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS
AND VA HOWEVER...AS ODDS OF BEING RAIN ARE MUCH LARGER THERE...STILL
CAUSING FLOODING CONCERNS.

SOME UPSLOPE SNOW LOOKS TO BE A GOOD BET FOR THURSDAY AS COLD AIR
MOVES IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM. WILL INCREASE POPS SOME.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN/SLEET OR SNOW
LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-026-029.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY
     EVENING FOR WVZ027-028-030>032-035>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
     WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 030810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 030810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 030810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 030810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EST TUE MAR 3 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT.
FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING WITH PRECIP BREAKING
OUT ALONG IT. THE HRRR AND RUC ARE MORE ROBUST WITH EXTENT OF
PRECIP THIS MORNING VS OTHER MODELS. THIS PRESENTS A CONCERN FOR
FZRA GIVEN EXPECTED SFC TEMPS...ESPECIALLY IN THE VALLEYS AND
HOLLOWS. AFTER COORDINATING WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED TO
EXPAND THE FZRA ADV TO INCLUDE ALL OF SE OH AND PORTIONS OF W WV
ALONG OH RIVER. LOOKING AT ONLY A FEW HUNDREDTHS AT BEST. ADJUSTED
END TIMES TO REFLECT EXPECTED WARMING OF TEMPS. LEFT NE KY OUT
ATTM AS CONFIDENCE NOT AS HIGH THAT PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT OVER
THAT AREA BEFORE TEMPS CAN RECOVER. WILL HANDLE WITH AN SPS FOR
NOW AND MONITOR TRENDS. ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS...THERE MAY MORE IN
THE WAY OF SLEET INITIALLY VS FZRA.

ONCE THE WARM FRONT MOVES N OUT OF THE AREA...MOST PLACES SHOULD
BE LOOKING AT MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA VS STEADY RAIN...EXCEPT
ACROSS SE OH. AS SUCH...HAVE TWEAKED POPS TO REFLECT LESS IN THE
WAY OF COVERAGE ACROSS SW VA AND S HALF OF WV. THIS TREND
CONTINUES THIS EVENING AS DOWNSLOPING LOW LEVEL FLOW STRENGTHENS.
THE COLD FRONT WILL BE SAGGING INTO SE OH BY MIDNIGHT WITH THE LOW
LEVEL FLOW VEERING AROUND TO SW AND INCREASING TO AROUND 60 KTS. THE
COLD AIR ABOVE THE SFC WILL LAG WELL BEHIND THE SFC FRONT AS IT
CROSSES SE OH...SO STILL HAVE LIQUID AS PRECIP TYPE THRU THE
NIGHT. KEPT HEAVY RAIN WORDING ON EITHER SIDE OF THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY. FRONT WILL CONTINUE TO SAG SE...INTO C WV BY 09Z AND
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z...THOUGH MOST OF THE PRECIP WILL BE
FALLING BEHIND THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. AS SUCH...THE HEAVY RAIN WILL
SHIFT INTO AREAS ALONG OH RIVER AND THE WV LOWLANDS. THINK THE
MOUNTAINS WILL ONLY HAVE LIGHT QPF THRU 12Z.

STILL LOOKING AT POSSIBLE CREEK AND STREAM ISSUES DEVELOPING OVER
SE OH TONIGHT AND PERHAPS NE KY AND W WV BY DAWN. ANY ISSUES ON
THE MAIN STEM RIVERS WILL HOLD OFF BEYOND THE NEAR TERM PERIOD.

FOR TEMPS...LOOKING AT A SURGE OF WARMTH BY THIS EVENING WITH HIGH
TEMPS PROBABLY OCCURRING AT MIDNIGHT AS MANY AREAS GET INTO THE
50S. TEMPS WILL START TO FALL DURING THE PREDAWN FOLLOWING FROPA.
DEWPOINTS WILL ALSO RESPOND...WITH A JUICY AIRMASS FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR OVER RESIDUAL SNOWPACK...ADDING FURTHER CONCERN FOR
FLOODING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THRU 06Z WEDNESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA THIS MORNING...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG. THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT HTS/BKW/PKB...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN THIS AFTERNOON NIGHT...MAINLY SE
PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL ACROSS SE OH
AND POSSIBLY JUST VFR CONDITIONS IN THE WARM SECTOR ACROSS
CRW/EKN/CKB. THERE WILL BE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED
THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
NIGHT.

THE FRONT SAGS SE TONIGHT...CLEARING SE OH BY 06Z...C WV BY
09Z...AND INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY 12Z. HEAVY RAIN WILL FALL ALONG
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE...SENDING AVIATION CONDITIONS INTO IFR.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOWLANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS THIS MORNING...INCLUDING KBKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         TUE 03/03/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR SNOW
WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ007>009-017.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 8 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 10 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR
     OHZ083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM THIS MORNING TO 1 PM EST THIS
     AFTERNOON FOR OHZ066-067-075-076.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 022320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE
40S. THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN
WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS OVERNIGHT THICKENING TOWARDS THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 022320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A
COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO THE SOUTH WITH LOW
PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL WITH DRY CONDITIONS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
TUESDAY MORNING. THEN...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH TO BRING
PERIODS OF RAIN...BECOMING MORE NUMEROUS LATE TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE OF EXPECTED
CONDITIONS. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND
DEVELOPING SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A
MODEL COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD
AIR AT THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING
SOME FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO
AND THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN
ISSUED FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS
THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO
RAIN BY AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE
AREA AND ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE
40S. THE RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN
WILL TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

HIGH PRESSURE WILL PREVAIL TO BRING WIDESPREAD VFR CONDITIONS AT
ALL SITES AT LEAST THROUGH 12Z. SOME UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS WILL MOVE
ACROSS OVERNIGHT THICKENING TOWARDS THE EARLY TUESDAY MORNING
HOURS...AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT.

THE WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...WITH
VFR CONDITIONS BECOMING MVFR FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AND OCCASIONAL
IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN AND FOG.  THERE MAY BE A PERIOD OF
FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN...BUT DURATION OF THIS PCPN WILL
BE SHORT.

ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY
NIGHT...MAINLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO
PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. THERE WILL BE
ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST
PORTIONS OF AREA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT.

SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT
GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE
TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 022034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A MODEL
COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING SOME
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S. THE
RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 022034
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS AGREE ON A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY.
A GOOD SURGE OF WARMER AND MOIST AIR WILL INITIALLY LIFT OVER THE
WARM FRONT TUESDAY MORNING...WITH RAIN QUICKLY OVERSPREADING THE
AREA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES INITIALLY FALL WELL BELOW
FREEZING TONIGHT...THEN RISE LATER TONIGHT AS CLOUDS AND DEVELOPING
SOUTHERLY FLOW KICK IN AHEAD OF THE RAIN. WENT WITH A MODEL
COMPROMISE ON TEMPERATURES. THUS...LOOKS LIKE ENOUGH COLD AIR AT
THE SURFACE WILL BE IN PLACE BEFORE THE WARM UP...TO BRING SOME
FREEZING RAIN...ESPECIALLY NORTH IN PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WHERE A FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY HAS BEEN ISSUED
FOR TUESDAY MORNING. ICE AMOUNTS LOOK TO BE MOSTLY LESS THAN A TENTH
OF AN INCH. MOST OF THESE AREAS WILL CHANGE OVER TO RAIN BY
AFTERNOON AS THE WARM FRONT CONTINUES NORTH THROUGH THE AREA AND
ALLOWS TEMPERATURES IN MANY AREAS TO SURGE WELL INTO THE 40S. THE
RAIN LOOKS TO BE ON THE ORDER OF A HALF AN INCH. THE RAIN WILL
TEMPORARILY DIMINISH SOMEWHAT BEHIND THE WARM FRONT TUESDAY
AFTERNOON. INSTABILITY AS WE GET INTO THE WARM SECTOR TUESDAY
AFTERNOON IS STILL RATHER MEAGER...HAVE TRIMMED BACK THUNDER
POTENTIAL TO THE SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE AREA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SIGNIFICANT SYSTEM WILL IMPACT THE AREA WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY STALLS OVER THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY AND WILL BRING COPIOUS
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION...ON THE ORDER OF 2 TO 3 INCHES IN MOST PLACES. THIS
FORECAST IS STILL LIKELY UNDERESTIMATING THE TOTAL ACCUMULATION SPIT OUT BY THE
MODELS OF 3 TO 4 INCHES. THE LARGE AMOUNTS OF RAIN...WARM TEMPERATURES...HIGH
DEW POINTS AND STRONG 850 MB WINDS WILL PROVIDE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR MELTING THE
CURRENT SNOWPACK ADDING ADDITIONAL MOISTURE AVAILABLE FOR RUNOFF HENCE WE RAISED
A FLOOD WATCH FOR OUR ENTIRE FORECAST AREA.

TO ADD FUEL TO THE FIRE...A SHARP COLD AIR MASS WILL INFILTRATE THE REGION ON
THURSDAY TURNING THE RAIN TO SNOW. DEPENDING ON HOW FAST THIS COLD AIR
PROPAGATES TO THE SOUTH WILL DICTATE HOW MUCH SNOW WE GET. RIGHT NOW...THE
FORECAST IS FOR ABOUT 5-7 INCHES OVER MUCH OF OUR AREA...AND THIS MAY BE A
CONSERVATIVE AMOUNT AS WELL. WHEN THE PRECIPITATION FINALLY DOES SHUT OFF...SOME
OF OUR MODELS ARE CALLING FOR SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF -20 F YET AGAIN. WE ARE IN
FOR A WILD RIDE OF WEATHER FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE ALONG WITH A GENERAL WARM UP WILL BUILD IN ACROSS THE
REGION AND WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH SATURDAY.  A WEAK SYSTEM IS
FORECAST TO TRACK TO OUR NORTH AND AFFECT THE NORTHERN PORTION OF
THE CWA.  GENERALLY WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGE TOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY FROM 7 AM TO 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/JMV/JW
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 021830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 021830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
THIN CIRRUS THIS AFTERNOON WILL DOMINATE.

A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA TUESDAY...VFR
BECOMING WIDESPREAD MVFR/OCCASIONAL IFR CEILINGS AND VSBY IN RAIN
AND FOG AS THE FRONT LIFTS NORTH OVER THE AREA. THERE MAY BE A
PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IN THE MORNING BEFORE CHANGING TO ALL
RAIN...ESPECIALLY AT BKW AND EKN. ALTHOUGH THERE MAY BE A BREAK IN
THE RAIN EARLY TUESDAY NIGHT...MANLY SE PORTION...LOOK FOR GENERAL
MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL IN THE WARM SECTOR. ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORM SOUTHEAST PORTIONS OF AREA
TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT
IN THE LOW LANDS...BUT GUSTS WILL BE INCREASING TO AROUND 25 KNOTS
ON MOUNTAIN RIDGETOPS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOWERING OF FLIGHT CATEGORIES TO MVFR/IFR WILL
VARY WITH ONSET OF THE RAIN AND THE EFFECT OF SNOW COVER ON THE
WARMING SOUTHERLY FLOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLOOD WATCH FROM TUESDAY EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1106 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 021611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1106 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 021611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1106 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1106 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRIER HIGH PRESSURE THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
15Z MONDAY THRU 12Z TUESDAY...
LINGERING MVFR STRATOCU WILL DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
THIS EVENING...WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV/30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 021106
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
606 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 021106
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
606 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020926
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 020926
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
411 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. A WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT. FRONT STALLS TO
THE SOUTH WITH LOW PRESSURE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT PUSHES NORTHWARD OVER THE REGION ON TUESDAY. BIG
CONCERN HERE IS WITH THE TIMING OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURES
EARLY TUESDAY. CAN NOT RULE OUT SOME FREEZING RAIN. WILL HAVE TO
MONITOR THIS SITUATION CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN PUSHES INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT...STALLING JUST
SOUTH OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY. THE EXTENT OF THE COLD AIR PUSH WILL
DETERMINE WHAT HAPPENS WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT MOVES ALONG
THE FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HERE THE MODELS DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY. THE
NAM AND CANADIAN ARE THE WARMEST AND WOULD PROBABLY LEAD TO FLOODING
ISSUES. THE SREF...ECMWF...AND GFS ARE COLDER AND WOULD LEAD TO A
WINTER STORM FOR MUCH OF THE AREA...ALTHOUGH PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
AND PLACEMENT ALSO VARY CONSIDERABLY. THEREFORE CONFIDENCE IS LOW IN
THE OUTCOME WITH THIS WAVE. WILL RUN A WINTER WEATHER SOLUTION FOR
NOW...BUT REMAIN ON THE CONSERVATIVE SIDE WITH AMOUNTS.

WITH COLDER AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS WITH UPSLOPE POTENTIAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND RAIN OR
SNOW WEDNESDAY/WEDNESDAY NIGHT. IFR IN SNOW SHOWERS THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 020643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 020643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 020643
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EST MON MAR 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER TODAY. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT
COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT SAGGING THRU THE AREA ATTM WITH THE GOOD CAA LAGGING A
BIT. THERE WILL A BRIEF WINDOW DURING PREDAWN FOR A CHANGEOVER TO
A LITTLE SLEET OR SNOW ON THE BACK EDGE OVER THE LOWLANDS BUT
SHOULD BE INCONSEQUENTIAL. DID KEEP SOME MINOR ACCUMULATIONS IN
THE HIGH TERRAIN.

PESKY LOW STRATUS WILL GRADUALLY SCT OUT FROM W TO E TODAY...WITH
THE MOUNTAINS HANGING ON TO AT LEAST SOME STRATOCU A GOOD PART OF
THE DAY. ANY SUN WE GET TODAY WILL BECOME FILTERED IN THE
AFTERNOON AS CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA. TEMPS TODAY WERE DERIVED
PRIMARILY ON THE BIAS CORRECTED MOS AND LOCAL IN HOUSE MOS WHICH
MID TO UPPER 30S C AND S LOWLANDS AND 20S AND 30S IN THE MOUNTAINS
AND PORTIONS OF SE OH.

CLOUD BASES LOWER TONIGHT WITH A DEVELOPING WARM FRONT APPROACHING
FROM THE SW TOWARD MORNING. GIVEN THE CLOUD COVER TONIGHT AND
INCREASING WAA ALOFT...TRIED TO STAY ON THE WARMER SIDE OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE FOR TEMPS OUTSIDE OF THE DEEP HOLLOWS AND
VALLEYS...AND SHOW A RISE TOWARD MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS AS
DOWNSLOPING SE LOW LEVEL FLOW GETS GOING. HAVE CHANCE POPS IN NE
KY/S WV AND SW VA BY 12Z. THERMAL PROFILES INDICATE A BRIEF SHOT
OF -FZRA AT THE ONSET ACROSS NE KY AND THE E SLOPES OF SE WV
AROUND 12Z. THIS MAY BE A SIMILAR EVENT AS TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY
MORNING BUT WITH LESS DURATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A COLD FRONT IS SAGGING THRU THE AREA AS OF 06Z AND WILL HAVE
EXITED TO THE SE BY 12Z. WIDESPREAD VLIFR CIGS AND IFR VSBY AHEAD
OF THE FRONT WITH SOME -RA WILL. VSBYS AND TO AN EXTENT CIGS WILL
IMPROVE AS THE FRONT CROSSES. AS SUCH HAVE IMPROVING CONDITIONS IN
THE TAFS...BUT STILL CARRY MVFR CIGS BEHIND THE FRONT. THERE MAY
BE A PERIOD OF -SN FOR THE MOUNTAIN SITES DURING THE PREDAWN WHICH
MAY BRING VSBY DOWN INTO IFR.

MORNING STRATUS WILL SCT INTO AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK...MOST
PREVALENT OVER THE MOUNTAINS AND N WV. ANY LINGERING STRATOCU WILL
DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WHILE CIRRUS OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE SW BY 12Z TUESDAY...WITH
LOWERING BASES INTO MVFR FOR NE KY AND SW VA AMID SOME -RA OR
-FZRA.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE MODERATE NW FOR TODAY. FLOW
VEERS AROUND TO SE TONIGHT AND INCREASES TO AROUND 20 KTS AT
H925...GIVING KBKW A BREEZE LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN
ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 03/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR
POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES
INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR
POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES
INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 012359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR
POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES
INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 012359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
659 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREAS OF PCPN CONTINUES ALONG A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONT ALONG
SOUTHEAST OH...EXTENDING SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL KY. ABUNDANT
CLOUDS AND LIGHT RAIN WILL PREVAIL THROUGH MIDNIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH LATER OVERNIGHT TAKING MOST PCPN EAST OF THE AREA
BY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. LOWERED POPS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL
FIELDS UNTIL THE COLD FRONT PASSES LATE OVERNIGHT.

TEMPERATURES REMAIN ABOVE FREEZING AT LEAST THROUGH MIDNIGHT OVER
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF OUR NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. THEREFORE...THE
THREAT FOR FREEZING RAIN HAS DIMINISHED AND THE ADVISORY FOR
POCAHONTAS COUNTY WILL BE ALLOW TO EXPIRE AT 7 PM.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD IFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ACROSS MOST OF THE WESTERN SITES
INCLUDING CKB TO THE NORTH WHILE ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE
ASSOCIATED WITH A NEARLY STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINS
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AND AREAS OF MOSTLY RAIN MOVE EAST NORTHEAST
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA.

MVFR CONDITIONS TO REMAIN AT BKW AND EKN...BUT EKN COULD SEE A
REDUCTION IN CEILINGS TO IFR AFTER 02Z DUE TO INCOMING PCPN.

VSBYS WILL IMPROVE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO PASS LATE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 06Z AND
09Z.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS
ENDING BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN
AFTERNOON STRATOCU DECK. THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY
REMAIN BELOW 3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE
AFTERNOON...AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND
THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOW WIDESPREAD IFR AT MOST SITES
TONIGHT. CONDITIONS COULD IMPROVE EARLIER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 012007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A PROLONGED WET SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FORECAST AREA ON TUESDAY AND
ULTIMATELY DECIDES TO TAKE ITS TIME MOVING THROUGH THE WILD AND
WONDERFUL STATE. THE GFS IS THE MOST PROGRESSIVE OF THE BUNCH
WHILE THE EURO AND NAM ARE SIMILAR KEEPING A FIRE HOSE POINTED AT
US FOR AT LEAST 24 HOURS. THIS FORECAST MORE CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE
WETTER/SLOWER MODELS. ITS WORTH MENTIONING THAT THERE IS SOME
UNCERTAINTY IN THE LOCATION IN WHICH THE HEAVIEST RAIN FALLS...SO
THE QPF IS LIKELY BLENDED OVER A LARGER PORTION OF THE AREA THAN
WHAT WILL ACTUALLY HAPPEN.

THE MOISTURE TAP FOR THIS SYSTEM EXTENDS ALL THE WAY BACK TO THE
BAJA PENINSULA...SO REGARDLESS THIS WILL BE A RATHER JUICY SYSTEM
WITH ATMOSPHERIC RIVER POTENTIAL. A 70+ KT SWLY LLJ DEVELOPS
ENHANCING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTION. ALL SAID AND DONE 2 INCHES
OF QPF SOUNDS REASONABLE FOR MOST PLACES...THIS COUPLED WITH
SNOWPACK MELTING IN THE WARMER TEMPERATURES THAT WE WILL
EXPERIENCE WILL CAUSE A SCENARIO WHERE FLOODING IS A LARGE
CONCERN.

ALSO OF CONCERN IS THE STRONGER WINDS IN THE MOUNTAINS...DEPENDING
ON HOW MUCH SNOW MELT OCCURS AND HOW THAWED AND SATURATED THE GROUNDS
ARE THIS COULD BE ANOTHER POTENTIAL HAZARD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 011839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 011839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 011839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFTERNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA THURSDAY MORNING...WITH
COLDER AIR FILTERING INTO THE REGION...AND ANY LINGERING
PRECIPITATION CHANGING OVER TO SNOW. EXPECTING LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS
EARLY THURSDAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BUILD IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING FRONT...FOR
CONTINUED COOL...BUT DRY CONDITIONS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITIONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MODERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURRING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFETRNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERRADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MOERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 011836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
135 PM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER
MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.  ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
TEMPERATURES HAD RISEN ABOVE FREEZING THROUGHOUT MOST OF THE AREA AS
OF EARLY AFETRNOON.  THEREFORE THE ADVISORIES HAVE BEEN
DROPPED...WITH THE EXCEPTION ON POCAHONTAS COUNTY IN THE CAD.  THIS
EXPIRES AT 7 PM BY WHICH TIME THE LAST OF THE COLD AIR SHOULD
FINALLY BE ERRADICATED.

THE WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION WILL BE CUT OFF FOR THE MOST PART
TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA.  MODELS DO SUGGEST ONE
LAST W-E DAGGER OF PRECIPITATION BEHIND THE FRONT TONIGHT...AS ONE
LAST TRAILING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MOVES THROUGH.  CONSIDERED
EXTENDING THE PERRY-MORGAN ADVISORY FOR THIS BUT THERE SHOULD NOT BE
A FREEZING RAIN THREAT AND ADDITIONAL SNOW AMOUNTS SHOULD BE AN INCH
OR LESS.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW SUPPORTS SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS
OVERNIGHT INTO MON WITH UP TO AN INCH OR SO THERE.  LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP PLENTY OF CLOUDS AROUND MON...A MORNING CU
PROCESS IN THE MORNING...MIXING UP INTO A STRATOCU DECK THAT SHOULD
START TO BREAK UP IN THE AFTERNOON.  IT SHOULD CLEAR FURTHER AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA AT THE END.

USED HRRR AND THEN NAM/MET FOR TEMPS...A BIT SHARPER BAROCLINIC ZONE
TONIGHT AND A BIT LOWER ON HIGHS MON COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS WITH
TEMPERATURES NOT RISING MUCH UNTIL AFTER 15Z.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR IN MAINLY RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH WARM ADVECTION S FLOW
OVER THE AREA...WITH TEMPERATURES ABOVE FREEZING AT ALL 6
TERMINALS.  VSBYS WILL IMPROVE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS DRIER AIR
ARRIVES IN THE WAKE OF A COLD FRONT THAT CUTS OFF THE WARM
ADVECTION.  THIS FRONT ROLLS THROUGH W TO E BETWEEN 3 AND 6Z. MVFR
OR WORSE VSBY WILL PERSIST IN THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT AS RAIN
SHOWERS THERE CHANGE OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE COLD FRONT.
CIGS TONIGHT WILL DROP TO CLOSE TO 1KFT...SO IFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE.

MON WILL BRING IMPROVING CONDITONS WITH MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS ENDING
BY LATE MORNING...AND MORNING CU THAT WILL EVOLVE INTO AN AFTERNOON
STRATOCU DECK.  THESE CLOUD HEIGHTS WILL RISE...BUT MAY REMAIN BELOW
3KFT...BUT START TO BREAK UP IN THE LOWLANDS IN THE AFTERNOON...AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS INTO THE AREA FROM THE NW.

LIGHT S SFC FLOW WILL BECOME LIGHT NW BEHIND THE FRONT OVERNIGHT.
MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING...WILL
BECOME MOERATE W OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN MODERATE NW FOR MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: GUIDANCE SHOWS WIDESPREAD IFR TONIGHT.  THERE
IS THE CHANCE FOR THIS OCCURING TONIGHT BEFORE THE COLD FRONT
ARRIVES.  THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE NUMEROUS INSTANCES OF L IN THE
TABLE BELOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...AND PERHAPS
SNOW AT THE END WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 011504
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SHOTGUN FZRA ADV FOR TRI-STATE AREA INTO CENTRAL WV. ALTHOUGH THE
ROADS ARE VERY WELL SALTED FOR THE MOST PART...2SM FZRA /YES NO -/
ALONG WITH FIVE HUNDREDTHS ALL AS FZRA AND 30F AT HTS WAS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. WE DO HAVE REPORTS OF ISOLATED ICY ROADS AND AN
ACCIDENT.

PREV DISCN...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO
NAM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS. SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD
OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS
A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>008-014-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011504
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SHOTGUN FZRA ADV FOR TRI-STATE AREA INTO CENTRAL WV. ALTHOUGH THE
ROADS ARE VERY WELL SALTED FOR THE MOST PART...2SM FZRA /YES NO -/
ALONG WITH FIVE HUNDREDTHS ALL AS FZRA AND 30F AT HTS WAS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. WE DO HAVE REPORTS OF ISOLATED ICY ROADS AND AN
ACCIDENT.

PREV DISCN...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO
NAM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS. SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD
OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS
A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>008-014-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 011504
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1004 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1000 AM UPDATE...
SHOTGUN FZRA ADV FOR TRI-STATE AREA INTO CENTRAL WV. ALTHOUGH THE
ROADS ARE VERY WELL SALTED FOR THE MOST PART...2SM FZRA /YES NO -/
ALONG WITH FIVE HUNDREDTHS ALL AS FZRA AND 30F AT HTS WAS A LITTLE
TOO MUCH. WE DO HAVE REPORTS OF ISOLATED ICY ROADS AND AN
ACCIDENT.

PREV DISCN...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION
TODAY. TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE
CRITICAL FOR WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO
NAM AND ITS MOS GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS
RUNS. SNOW HAS ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD
OVER NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN
OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS
A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS
AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT
REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL
HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>008-014-016>018.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
     FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ083-085>087.
KY...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 011002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 011002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 011002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 011002
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
500 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    H    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY














000
FXUS61 KRLX 010939
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
439 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT TODAY. COLD FRONT TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER
WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WARM FRONT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE REGION TODAY.
TIMING AND AMOUNT OF THE INITIAL PRECIPITATION WILL BE CRITICAL FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONCERNS. LEANED HEAVILY ON THE MESO NAM AND ITS MOS
GUIDANCE WHICH IS FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH PREVIOUS RUNS. SNOW HAS
ALREADY STARTED IN CENTRAL OHIO AND SHOULD SPREAD OVER NORTHERN WEST
VIRGINIA. EXPECT SEVERAL HOURS OF SNOW BEFORE CHANGING TO RAIN
AROUND NOON. PRECIPITATION IN SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA COULD START AS A WINTER MIX BEFORE CHANGING TO
RAIN BY MID MORNING. SOUTH OF THIS AREA...EXPECT MAINLY RAIN. AM
CONCERNED THAT PRECIPITATION MAY NOT REACH RALEIGH AND FAYETTE
COUNTIES UNTIL TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE FREEZING. WILL HOLD TIGHT WITH
THE ADVISORY FOR NOW...BUT WILL HAVE TO WATCH THIS CLOSELY.

A COLD FRONT THEN SWINGS THROUGH TONIGHT. ANY PRECIPITATION
REMAINING BY LATE TONIGHT WOULD CHANGE TO SNOW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO WHAT HAS BECOME A WELL ADVERTISED WET SYSTEM
SLATED FOR MID WEEK. LIKE HPC...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO GIVEN POSITIVE TILT TO UPPER TROF HANGING BACK...OWING TO
LESS PROGRESSION OF SFC FLOW AS THE FLOW ALOFT REMAINS PARALLEL TO
SFC FRONT. PRECIP WILL BREAK OUT ALONG DEVELOPING WARM FRONT
TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCES ACROSS SE OH. THERE MAY BE A VERY BRIEF
MIX AT THE ONSET...BUT THIS IS PRIMARILY A RAIN MAKER ON TUESDAY.
TRIED TO KEEP HIGH POPS CONFINED TO SE OH AND N WV AS REMAINDER OF
AREA REMAINS IN THE MORE SHOWERY WARM SECTOR. LLJ INCREASES TO NEAR
70 KTS TUESDAY NIGHT OUT OF SW WITH THE OVERALL FLOW TRYING TO
BECOME PARALLEL TO THE SFC COLD FRONT AS IT BEGINS TO SLOW DOWN
CONSIDERABLY ON APPROACH. COPIOUS AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE WILL BE POOLED
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...WITH PWATS SURGING TO NEAR 1.5 INCHES ON
IMPRESSIVE THETA E ADVECTION. THE FIRST AREA OF CONCERN WILL BE
ACROSS SE OH TUESDAY NIGHT...AND SLOW SHIFTING SE ON WEDNESDAY AS
THE FRONT SAGS SE. IT IS AT THIS POINT MODELS DIVERGE WITH GFS
CONTINUING TO BE ON THE PROGRESSIVE SIDE. THE NEW ECMWF IS NOT AS
PROGRESSIVE BUT DOES ENTRAIN MODIFIED ARCTIC AIR INTO THIS SYSTEM
COME WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AGAIN...STILL PREFER THE LESS PROGRESSIVE
SCENARIO ATTM...WHICH KEEPS THE RAIN GOING ALONG AND E OF THE OH
RIVER ON WEDNESDAY. KEPT THE HEAVY RAIN WORDING IN WX GRIDS. QPF
AMOUNTS LOOK TO AVG AROUND 2 INCHES AREAWIDE. WILL KEEP HWO WORDING
AS IS.

AS MENTIONED...THINGS GET TRICKY HEADING INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT WITH
THE LESS PROGRESSIVE ECMWF WITH SECONDARY SURFACE WAVE FORMING ALONG
THE BOUNDARY AMID COLD AIR INTRUSION. THIS BRINGS A CONCERN THAT
STARTS WITH HEAVY RAIN AND FLOODING TO THE OTHER END OF THE SPECTRUM
WITH WINTRY WX. CONFIDENCE IS LOW REGARDING EXTENT OF ANY WINTRY WX
ON THE BACK SIDE OF THIS AND THE MAGNITUDE OF SUCH ATTM.

ON A SIDE NOTE...TEMPS WILL BE WARMING TO MORE SEASONAL LEVELS IN
THE WARM SECTOR WITH LOW TO MID 50S LOOKING LIKE A GOOD BET ON BY
TUESDAY AFTERNOON IN THE LOWLANDS AMID BREEZY S FLOW. THESE WARM
TEMPS HANG ON TUESDAY NIGHT FOR A RATHER MILD NIGHT FOR THIS TIME OF
YEAR. DEPENDING ON HOW THINGS PLAY OUT ON WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT WILL DETERMINE JUST HOW RAPID A FALL OF TEMPS TO EXPECT BEHIND
THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY













000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 010602
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1223 AM EST SUN MAR 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT WILL PRODUCE PRECIPITATION TODAY WITH RESTRICTIONS IN
VISIBILITIES AND CLOUDS. THE PRECIPITATION WILL BEGIN AS SNOW ACROSS
CENTRAL OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...WITH A WINTRY MIX POSSIBLE
ACROSS SOUTHERN OHIO...NORTHERN KY...AND CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. RAIN
CAN BE EXPECTED SOUTH OF THESE AREAS. THE WINTRY PRECIPITATION WILL
CHANGE TO RAIN DURING THE MORNING HOURS...GRADUALLY PUSHING
NORTHWARD.

A COLD FRONT WILL THEN PUSH THROUGH TONIGHT. SOME BRIEF SNOW CAN NOT
BE RULED OUT LATE TONIGHT AS THE PRECIPITATION COMES TO AN END.
EXPECT A STRATUS DECK BEHIND THE FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. IFR
POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 1 PM
     EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM EARLY THIS MORNING TO 7 PM
     EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010214
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
914 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT. MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR LESS AT THE
SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW LAYER OF
COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE NW OF
THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY. HOWEVER...MOST
PLACES SHOULD BE WARMER THAN FREEZING BY 9 AM SUNDAY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION. ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED
TO BE BRIEF AND RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL. ISSUED AN SPS
REGARDING THE FREEZING RAIN/WINTRY MIX THREAT OVER NON-ADVISED
COUNTIES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE OF WV. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       SUN 03/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE OF WV. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW











000
FXUS61 KRLX 010055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE OF WV. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE OF WV. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 010055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR BECOMING IFR OVERNIGHT AS A LIGHT WINTRY MIX OF PRECIPITATION
MOVES THROUGH THE STATE OF WV. PRECIPITATION SHOULD TRANSITION TO
MOSTLY RAIN BY 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JW











000
FXUS61 KRLX 282010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FINISH TO THE DAY AS THE LAST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON LEAVES THE AREA.   THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET...THEN BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE S WILL BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.  THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GO TO RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...SAVE FOR PERHAPS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND ERN SLOPES...WHERE A MIX MAY PERSIST.

CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR MOST PLACES BY
18Z SUNDAY.  EXPECT MVFR VSBY IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT
IFR SNOW WILL BE CLOSE BY PKB...TO THE W OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY AN ERLY COMPONENT...A
LITTLE STRONGER SE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.  IFR SNOW COULD GET INTO PKB SUNDAY
MORNING.  MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 282010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FINISH TO THE DAY AS THE LAST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON LEAVES THE AREA.   THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET...THEN BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE S WILL BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.  THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GO TO RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...SAVE FOR PERHAPS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND ERN SLOPES...WHERE A MIX MAY PERSIST.

CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR MOST PLACES BY
18Z SUNDAY.  EXPECT MVFR VSBY IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT
IFR SNOW WILL BE CLOSE BY PKB...TO THE W OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY AN ERLY COMPONENT...A
LITTLE STRONGER SE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.  IFR SNOW COULD GET INTO PKB SUNDAY
MORNING.  MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 282010
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
LONG TERM STARTS OUT RATHER SOAKING WET. COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY BE
PROGRESSING EASTWARD ACROSS THE CWA AT THE BEGINNING OF THE
PERIOD...WITH A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT FROM
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AS IT DOES SO.
STILL LOOKING LIKE HEAVY RAIN ON WEDNESDAY...IN THE MOIST
ATMOSPHERE...ALONG WITH SOME RATHER GUSTY WINDS EXPECTED TUESDAY
NIGHT INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY...WITH THE STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND
TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT. RAISED WIND GUSTS AND ADDED HEAVY RAIN
WORDING IN THE TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD.

FRONT WILL BEGIN TO PUSH EAST THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT...WITH
COLDER AIR RUSHING IN...AND A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW AREA WIDE. ITS
POSSIBLE THERE COULD BE SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS...BUT WITH THE
WET...WARM GROUND...AT THIS POINT NOT SURE HOW MUCH WILL ACTUALLY BE
ABLE TO ACCUMULATE.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE EXITING FRONT FOR FRIDAY
INTO THE REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED. WITH TEMPERATURES DIPPING BELOW
NORMAL ONCE AGAIN.

WILL CONTINUE TO HIGHLIGHT WATER ISSUES FOR NEXT WEEK IN THE HWO.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FINISH TO THE DAY AS THE LAST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON LEAVES THE AREA.   THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET...THEN BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE S WILL BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.  THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GO TO RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...SAVE FOR PERHAPS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND ERN SLOPES...WHERE A MIX MAY PERSIST.

CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR MOST PLACES BY
18Z SUNDAY.  EXPECT MVFR VSBY IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT
IFR SNOW WILL BE CLOSE BY PKB...TO THE W OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY AN ERLY COMPONENT...A
LITTLE STRONGER SE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.  IFR SNOW COULD GET INTO PKB SUNDAY
MORNING.  MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ035-036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 4 AM TO 7 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     WVZ046.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281932 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
138 PM EST SAT FEB 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT LATE TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY. COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE BRINGS DRIER WEATHER MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER
WARM/COLD FRONT COMBO TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WARM ADVECTION S FLOW INTO AN ARCTIC AIR MASS...ON THE BACK SIDE OF
THE EXITING ARCTIC HIGH...WILL CREATE MIXED PRECIPITATION IN THE
AREA OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND SUNDAY..BENEATH FLAT UPPER LEVEL SW
FLOW..  PRECIPITATION SHOULD SPREAD INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AFTER
MIDNIGHT TONIGHT.  MODELS WARM THE LAYERS ABOVE FREEZING MORE OR
LESS AT THE SAME TIME ALTHOUGH BUFKIT SOUNDINGS DO SUGGEST A SHALLOW
LAYER OF COLD AIR HANGING ON INTO SUNDAY AFTERNOON ESPECIALLY TO THE
NW OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN THE GREENBRIER VALLEY.

STILL GETTING AROUND 2 INCHES SNOW PERRY AND MORGAN COUNTIES TO KEEP
THE ADVISORY GOING THERE...WITH A TOUCH OF FREEZING RAIN POSSIBLE
THERE IN THE TRANSITION.  ALSO CONSIDERING ADVISORY FOR FREEZING
RAIN OVER THE EASTERN SLOPES OF OUR WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES OF
POCAHONTAS...FAYETTE AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES.  WILL CONSIDER EXPANSION
OF ADVISORY TO THESE COUNTIES IN COORD WITH NEIGHBORS THIS
AFTERNOON.  ANY FREEZING RAIN ELSEWHERE IS EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AND
RELATIVELY INCONSEQUENTIAL.

USED NAM / MET BLENDED WITH PREVIOUS RUN FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEW
POINTS.  DO HOLD ON THE COLD AIR A LITTLE LONGER IN SE OHIO AND IN
THE GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SUNDAY NIGHT UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
BEHIND FIRST COLD FRONT TRANSITIONING PCPN INTO A MIX OR SNOW WITH
LINGERING MOISTURE. PCPN SHOULD BRIEFLY END SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE NEXT
SYSTEM APPROACHES.

A BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE AREA MONDAY NIGHT WITH DRY
WEATHER. BY LATE SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY...FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST
TO BRING WAA. A WARM FRONT LIFTS NORTH LATE MONDAY NIGHT NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY...TO BRING CHANCES OF PCPN TO THE AREA. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS
FROM THE GFS SUGGEST ONSET OF PCPN AS FZRA ACROSS THE SOUTHERN THIRD
OF THE AREA EARLY TUESDAY MORNING BEFORE SWITCHING TO RAIN.  MODELS
INDICATE STRONG WARM AIR ADVECTION AT H850 UNDER AROUND 50 KNOTS
FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH TEMPERATURES INCREASING FROM 4C TO 9C BY 06
WEDNESDAY. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOST PCPN IN THE FORM OF RAIN THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT. A BRIEF WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT AREA FOR FREEZING RAIN TUESDAY MORNING.

CONCERNS CONTINUES AS EXTENDED PERIOD OF RAIN IS FORECAST TUESDAY
INTO MID WEEK. WITH WET TERRAIN...SNOW PACK AND WHATEVER RAINFALL
AMOUNTS OCCUR...FLOODING THREAT INCREASES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS MORE LIQUID EQUIVALENT IN THE DEEPER SNOW PACK OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE FLOODING IS MORE LIKELY.


KEPT HIGH POPS WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED SYSTEM RANGING FROM
CATEGORICAL SOUTHEAST OH...AND WESTERN HALF OF WV INCLUDING THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. H850 WINDS
INCREASE TO NEAR 70 KNOTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD WITH STRONG WAA
AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

WENT WITH BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS BLENDED WITH ALL BLEND
GUIDANCE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS STARTING TO COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH EACH OTHER IN
TERMS OF OVERALL PATTERN...ALTHOUGH TIMING ISSUES REMAIN. BRIEF
BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION EXPECTED FOR THE FIRST PART OF
TUESDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON A LITTLE LONGER. HOWEVER...THIS
WILL CHANGE AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH ACROSS THE
REGION. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD SEE A BRIEF PERIOD
OF FREEZING RAIN OR EVEN SLEET AT THE ONSET TUESDAY...BEFORE ENOUGH
WARM AIR IS ABLE TO SURGE NORTH TO SCOUR OUT COLDER SURFACE
TEMPERATURES.

STILL LOOKING LIKE GOOD TAP OF GULF MOISTURE SURGING INTO THE REGION
TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY WITH STRONG SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS
DEVELOPING...WITH PW VALUES EXPECTED TO RISE AROUND 1.2 TO 1.3
INCHES...OR ABOUT 3 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR. THIS...ALONG WITH THE STRONG DYNAMICS...WILL RESULT IN
HEAVY RAIN ACROSS THE AREA...WITH A GENERAL 1 TO 2 INCHES OF RAIN
EXPECTED...WITH THE HIGHER AMOUNTS AT THIS POINT EXPECTED ACROSS WV
LOWLANDS AND SOUTHEAST OHIO. THE HEAVY RAIN...COMBINED WITH ANY SNOW
MELT THAT IS ABLE TO OCCUR DUE TO WARMING TEMPERATURES...COULD
CREATE FLOODING ISSUES. THERE IS A GENERAL 2 TO 4 INCHES OF WATER IN
THE SNOW PACK ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. OF COURSE THERE IS STILL
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW MUCH SNOW MELT WILL OCCUR AND HOW RAPID IT WILL
BE. WILL NEED TO MONITOR AREA CREEKS AND STREAMS INITIALLY WITH THIS
SYSTEM...AND POSSIBLY RIVERS AS TIME PROGRESSES.

THE GOOD NEWS IS...MODELS HAVE TRENDED TOWARDS A MORE SOUTHERLY
TRACK WITH THE LOW THAT WILL DEVELOP AND PUSH ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST
U.S. MID WEEK. THIS SHOULD HOPEFULLY KEEP THE BULK OF MOISTURE WITH
THAT LOW TO OUR SOUTH.

COLD FRONT WILL PUSH THROUGH THE CWA WEDNESDAY OR EARLY
THURSDAY...WITH A GENERAL DRYING TREND TAKING HOLD AS HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST. ANY PRECIPITATION WILL CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT
SNOWFALL BEHIND THE FRONT. WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION FLOODING
POTENTIAL IN THE HWO FOR THE TIME PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR FINISH TO THE DAY AS THE LAST MAJOR ARCTIC AIR MASS OF THE
SEASON LEAVES THE AREA.   THIS WILL GIVE WAY TO WARM ADVECTION
TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...AS A WEAK LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES UP THE
OHIO RIVER VALLEY. THIS WILL PUMP MOISTURE AND MILDER AIR INTO THE
AREA.

SNOW IS LIKELY TO OVERSPREAD THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT AND THEN MIX WITH SLEET...THEN BRIEFLY TO FREEZING
RAIN...AND THEN ALL RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY.  ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE
MOVING UP FROM THE S WILL BRING SNOW AND SLEET TO THE NRN WV
MOUNTAINS EARLY SUNDAY MORNING WITH SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND RAIN
INTO THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS.  THE PRECIPITATION IN
THE MOUNTAINS WILL ALSO GO TO RAIN BY 18Z SUNDAY...SAVE FOR PERHAPS
THE HIGHEST TERRAIN AND ERN SLOPES...WHERE A MIX MAY PERSIST.

CIGS WILL DROP TO MVFR SUNDAY MORNING WITH LOW MVFR MOST PLACES BY
18Z SUNDAY.  EXPECT MVFR VSBY IN PRECIPITATION SUNDAY MORNING BUT
IFR SNOW WILL BE CLOSE BY PKB...TO THE W OF THE OHIO RIVER...AND IN
THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW WILL HAVE MOSTLY AN ERLY COMPONENT...A
LITTLE STRONGER SE IN THE MOUNTAINS.  LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME MODERATE SW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO ON SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET OF PRECIPITATION AND ASSOCIATED
LOWER CIGS AND VSBYS COULD VARY.  IFR SNOW COULD GET INTO PKB SUNDAY
MORNING.  MUCH OF THE MOS GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING IFR CIGS AND VSBYS
BY MIDDAY SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN OR MIXED RAIN/SNOW LATE SUNDAY INTO EARLY
MONDAY. IFR POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RAIN SHOWERS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 1 PM EST SUNDAY FOR
     OHZ066-067.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM













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