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000
FXUS61 KRLX 240738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOGETHER WITH
A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES. OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY 09Z...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...AND
INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z.

FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 240738
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA TODAY.

BROAD UPPER TROUGH STRIKES UP A STORM OFF THE EAST COAST WHICH
WILL WRAP AROUND A FEW SNOW BANDS INTO THE WV MTNS ON WEDNESDAY.

CLIPPER SYSTEM ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLIDES THROUGH THE
REGION ON THURSDAY GIVING A GOOD SHOT FOR SNOW TO MOST OF THE
AREA...THOUGH TEMPS WILL BE BORDERLINE SNOWISH IN THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS. RIGHT NOW...MODELS ARE KEEPING THEM JUST ABOVE
FREEZING...SO THAT IS SOMETHING TO WATCH.



&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOGETHER WITH
A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES. OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY 09Z...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...AND
INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z.

FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240517
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1217 AM EST MON NOV 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATED HOURLY TEMPERATURES AND SKY GRIDS. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS AND AREAS OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT NORTH TOGETHER WITH
A WARM FRONT OVERNIGHT. THIS COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS AT SOME SITES. OVERALL...VFR UNDER WINDY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS BY 09Z...SUSTAINED IN THE LOWER TO
MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE 20-30KT RANGE POSSIBLE TO CONTINUE
OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER 09Z...AND
INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z.

FROPA EXPECTED AROUND 18Z MONDAY. EXPECT SUSTAINED WINDS IN THE
UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40 KTS...WITH
LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE OVER THE LOWLANDS...THROUGH AT LEAST 21Z.
WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH WILL
CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-027>032-039-040.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 8 PM EST THIS EVENING
     FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...ARJ/MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 240232
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
932 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NEEDED.

550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH BULK OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING AT KBKW AND
KEKN...THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY THROUGH
09Z...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED LOWER TO MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
09Z...AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       MON 11/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    M    H    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232333
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...
RAIN SHOWERS MOVING FROM SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST...WITH BULK OF
PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THROUGH 09Z. EXPECT BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS
IN RAIN...ALONG WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING AT KBKW AND
KEKN...THROUGH AT LEAST 10-12Z.

IN ADDITION...SOUTH TO SOUTHEASTERLY WINDS GENERALLY THROUGH
09Z...WITH WINDS SUSTAINED LOWER TO MID TEENS...GUSTS IN THE
20-30KT RANGE. WINDS WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWESTERLY AFTER
09Z...AND INCREASING IN STRENGTH GENERALLY AFTER 14Z. EXPECT SUSTAINED
WINDS IN THE UPPER TEENS TO LOWER 20 KTS RANGE...WITH GUSTS 30-40
KTS...WITH LOCALLY HIGHER GUSTS POSSIBLE...THROUGH AT LEAST
21Z. WINDS WILL DECREASE IN STRENGTH SOMEWHAT AFTER 21Z...ALTHOUGH
WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN GUSTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS COULD DEVELOP
THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. TIMING OF WIND SHIFT...STRENGTHENING OF
WINDS COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
550 PM...WENT AHEAD AND ISSUED A WIND ADVISORY FOR SOUTHWEST VA
COUNTIES PER COORDINATION WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. A FEW
OBSERVATION SITES HAVE GUSTED INTO THE UPPER 30/LOWER 40 MPH
RANGE...AND WITH WINDS ALOFT...25-35 KTS...AS EVIDENCED ON VAD
WIND PROFILE...WENT AHEAD AND ADDED VA COUNTIES INTO WIND ADVISORY
UNTIL 04Z.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232150
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
450 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
450 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS TO RAISE THEM ACROSS THE NORTH A
LITTLE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232150
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
450 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
450 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED POPS TO RAISE THEM ACROSS THE NORTH A
LITTLE FASTER THAN CURRENTLY FORECAST. OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN
FROM THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN
INTO THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO
EXPAND ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE
CROSSES FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232112
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 232112
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
408 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH TONIGHT.
A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH MONDAY AFTERNOON. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT. LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE EAST WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
PERIOD STARTS WITH LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM LIFTING NNEWD THROUGH
ERN CANADA....LEAVING THE FCST AREA IN DIMINISHING W TO SW LOW LEVEL
FLOW.  THE NEAR ADVISORY CRITERIA WIND GUSTS QUICKLY RETREAT TO THE
NW MON EVENING AS THE SYSTEM LIFTS OUT.  WITH COLD ADVECTION GETTING
THE TOP OF THE MIXING LAYER JUST INTO THE ICE CRYSTAL ZONE...DO NOT
EXPECT MUCH IN THE WAY OF UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ESPECIALLY GIVEN THE
W TO SW FLOW...ANY THAT DOES OCCUR SHOULD BE GONE BY DAWN TUE.

AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH SHEARS OUT AS IT PASSES TUE...EXPECT A DRY
DAY AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN LATE.  DO
EXPECT VARYING AMOUNTS OF STRATOCU NEAR THE INVERSION ATOP THE
MIXING LAYER MON NT INTO TUE NT...WHEN THE HIGH CROSSES.

MODELS ARE CLOSER BUT STILL NOT IN FULL AGREEMENT ON LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM TRACKING UP THE E COAST ON WED.  THERE IS ACTUALLY A BIGGER
DIFFERENCE IN THE WWD EXTENT OF THE PRECIPITATION THAN IN THE TRACK
OF THE LOW ITSELF.  WE HAVE A SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH LIFTING NEWD
THROUGH THE CAROLINAS FOLLOWED BY A MID STREAM NEGATIVE TILT S/W
TROUGH DIGGING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY WED.  THE SYSTEMS NEVER
PHASE...BUT THE ECMWF AND NOW THE GFS COME CLOSEST TO PHASING AND
THEREFORE BRING THE PRECIPITATION SHIELD FARTHEST W.

RAISED POPS TO CHANCE FOR MOST OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES WITH A
HIGH CHANCE IN THE NRN MOUNTAINS...CLOSE TO SREF VALUES.  WITH A
WARM BOUNDARY LAYER AND THE PRECIPITATION COMING DURING THE WARMEST
PART OF THE DAY...THIS WOULD BE AN ELEVATION SNOW SHOULD IT
OCCUR...AND HAVE VERY SMALL ACCUMULATIONS OVER THE VERY HIGHEST
TERRAIN WED AFTERNOON.  DO NOT THINK AN HWO MENTION IS IN ORDER AT
THIS POINT GIVEN ONLY HIGH CHANCE POPS AND ACCUMULATIONS BELOW
ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.

WITH AIR MASS OF MAINLY PACIFIC ORIGIN THIS WEEK...HAVE SLIGHTLY
HIGHER TEMPERATURES VIA THE MAV...EXCEPT FOR WED...WHERE THE BIAS
CORRECTED ECMWF WAS USED TO LOWER HIGHS A BIT GIVEN MORE CLOUD COVER
ASSOCIATED WITH THE E COAST SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL RATHER LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE POST THANKSGIVING PERIOD...WITH
RELATIVELY WEAK FEATURES SATURDAY AND SUNDAY IN THE FAST W OR WNW
FLOW ALOFT...AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE GRADIENT LIFTS THROUGH US
AND EVENTUALLY TO OUR NORTH BY SUNDAY. THE PROBLEM IS
TIMING...POPS...AND TEMPERATURES IN THIS STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE.

BACK AT THE START OF EXTENDED...HAVE ANY LEFTOVER POPS WITH COASTAL
STORM LIFTING OUT OF OUR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES. WITH THE MIDWESTERN
500 MB TROF...HAVE POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST OVERNIGHT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT. WENT WITH HIGHER POPS THAN YESTERDAY FOR MOSTLY SNOW
SHOWERS ON THANKSGIVING DAY. BEST CRYSTAL GROWTH TEMPERATURES IS
ACTUALLY THURSDAY NIGHT...BUT MOISTURE DEEP IS THINNING THEN. WILL
HOLD ONTO POPS LONGER THURSDAY NIGHT IN WEST VIRGINIA.  A FEW INCHES
OF ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE OVER MOUNTAINS...BUT NOTHING UNUSUAL.

AS MENTIONED...CONFIDENCE DROPS AS THE LOW LEVEL TEMPERATURE
GRADIENT LIFTS NORTHEAST OVER THE WEEKEND...LEAVING US ON THE MILDER
SIDE BY SUNDAY. WEAK DISTURBANCES WILL LIKELY STREAK SE OVER THIS
TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AND LIMITED MOISTURE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY...TO CAUSE US TO INSERT CHANCE POPS AT TIMES...TRENDING NORTH
OVER THE LONG HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO
FIGURE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE PASSES TO THE WEST...WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH
TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MILD AFTERNOON ON GOING...ALTHOUGH THICKER CLOUDS ARE MOVING IN FROM
THE SOUTH AND SHOULD START TO DAMPEN THE WARMING TREND. WINDS
BEGINNING TO PICK UP ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN...AND HAVE WIND
ADVISORY IN PLACE. MAY BE TOUGH TO GET THE STRONGEST WINDS DOWN INTO
THE LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH UPGLIDE ONGOING SO NO NEED TO EXPAND
ADVISORY FOR TODAY. WARM FRONT...WITH A SLUG OF MOISTURE CROSSES
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH LATE THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT.

COLD AIR ADVECTION KICKS IN TOMORROW AS A COLD FRONT PASSES..AND
HAVE VERY STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE... IE UP TO 60 KTS AT
850. WITH SINKING AIR IN THE CAA...ANTICIPATE SOME OF THESE STRONGER
WINDS MIXING DOWN...AND HAVE GONE WITH A WIND ADVISORY FOR MUCH OF
THE CWA FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE EVENING. LEFT THE MOUNTAINS OUT
TO REDUCE CONFUSION OVER TWO SEPARATE ADVISORIES FOR SAME LOCATION
BUT DIFFERENT TIMES. ALSO CAA REACHES MOUNTAINS LAST...AND BY THEN
THE STRONGER WINDS ALOFT ARE MOVING OUT SO MAY NOT NEED AN ADVISORY
ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN IN THE END. SAME THINKING FOR THE COAL
FIELDS...LOWER CONFIDENCE IN MEETING CRITERIA THERE...SO WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW.

WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY WINDS AND CLOUDS...RAISED TEMPS OVERNIGHT A
BIT...AND ALSO INCREASED SOME ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY...WITH
LITTLE CHANGE FARTHER WEST AS COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-027>032-039-040.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
     WIND ADVISORY UNTIL MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT FOR WVZ038-046-047.
OH...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...WIND ADVISORY FROM 11 AM TO 8 PM EST MONDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231739
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1239 PM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TODAYS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
HI RES MODELS TO NARROW DOWN POPS. ALSO RAISED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW LOW 70S FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA...DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT DID GIVE
HIGHS A GOOD BOOST WITH WAA EXPECTED. THESE SAME HI RES MODELS
DID VERY WELL YESTERDAY CATCHING THE HIGHS THAT BLEW PAST PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER
OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILING THIS AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH EXPECT MVFR
CIGS TO MOVE INTO BKW AT SOME POINT. GUSTY SE FLOW TODAY. AS A
WARM FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT...WILL HAVE MVFR IN SHOWERS CROSSING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH. COULD HAVE BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR WITH
THIS...BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW TO CARRY AT THIS POINT. IFR CIGS
EXPECTED ON EASTERN SLOPES...OUTSIDE OF TAF SITES. REMAINING
RATHER BREEZY OVERNIGHT. COLD FRONT APPROACHES TOMORROW...WITH
EVEN STRONGER WINDS...TURNING S TO SW LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VIS LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY. COULD GET BRIEF IFR IN RAIN TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231435
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TODAYS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
HI RES MODELS TO NARROW DOWN POPS. ALSO RAISED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW LOW 70S FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA...DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT DID GIVE
HIGHS A GOOD BOOST WITH WAA EXPECTED. THESE SAME HI RES MODELS
DID VERY WELL YESTERDAY CATCHING THE HIGHS THAT BLEW PAST PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER
OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231435
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
935 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED TODAYS FORECAST BASED ON CURRENT OBS AND
HI RES MODELS TO NARROW DOWN POPS. ALSO RAISED HIGHS...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE WEST. NEAR TERM HI-RES MODELS ALL SHOW LOW 70S FOR
WESTERN HALF OF CWA...DID NOT GO QUITE THAT HIGH BUT DID GIVE
HIGHS A GOOD BOOST WITH WAA EXPECTED. THESE SAME HI RES MODELS
DID VERY WELL YESTERDAY CATCHING THE HIGHS THAT BLEW PAST PREVIOUS
FORECASTS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW
LIGHT ECHOES ON RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER
OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231045
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231045
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
530 AM UPDATE... NO CHANGES PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...

GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230937
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
437 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST TODAY...AND PASSES
WEST OF THE AREA TONIGHT. A STRONG COLD FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON
MONDAY. CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING AS IT
MOVES FROM THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...NORTH INTO THE OH VALLEY AND
WV MONDAY. THIS SYSTEM WILL FIRST BRING A WARM FRONT UNDER DEEP
STRONG SOUTH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO LATE SUNDAY NIGHT. THEN...A COLD
FRONT WILL QUICKLY FOLLOW...ACCOMPANIED BY RAIN SHOWERS AND STRONG
GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY BEHIND THE FRONT.

THE COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY AS A
BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST...WITH COLDER
TEMPERATURES.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER MONDAY
DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
256 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
GENERALLY FAIR WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA. A FEW LIGHT ECHOES ON
RADAR OVER FAR WESTERN WV COUNTIES TO CWA BORDER OTHERWISE ALL CLEAR.

INCREASED POPS FOR THIS AFTERNOON TO CATEGORICAL AND SIMILARLY
INCREASED WIND SPEEDS AND GUSTS. RAISED A WIND ADVISORY FOR THE
MOUNTAINS. A STRONG FRONT MOVES OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
WIND SPEEDS JUST OFF THE DECK PEAK OUT NEAR 60 KTS. STRONGEST
GUSTS SHOULD BE WITH THE FROPA AROUND 7 PM TONIGHT. THE LOWER
ELEVATIONS SHOULD GENERALLY BE SPARED BY THIS FIRST WAVE THOUGH IT
WILL BE A TAD WINDY WITH GUSTS TO 20 TO 25 MPH.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE QUITE WARM TODAY NEARLY 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WIND ADVISORY FROM 4 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO MIDNIGHT EST TONIGHT
     FOR WVZ038-046-047.
     WIND ADVISORY FROM 6 PM TO 11 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230552
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1252 AM EST SUN NOV 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
VFR UNTIL A STRONG FRONT ARRIVES LATE SUNDAY GIVING A FEW HOURS OF
IFR. GUSTY WINDS WILL ACCOMPANY THE FRONT PARTICULARLY IN THE
MTNS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SUN 11/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1045 PM UPDATE...
UPPER FLOW REMAIN ZONAL WITH UPSTREAM SHOWERS IN CENTRAL OHIO MOVING
MORE E THAN NE.  ADDED SMALL SHOWER CHANCE INTERIOR SE OHIO AGAIN
FOR EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.  THIS TIME...TEMPERATURES ARE ABOVE
FREEZING AND WILL REMAIN SO.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 230012
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTHWEST OVERNIGHT AND
SUNDAY...AND PASSES WEST OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT.  A STRONG COLD
FRONT WHIPS THROUGH ON MONDAY.  CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREV DISCN...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER A VFR NT WITH JUST ENOUGH WIND TO PRECLUDE FOG...CLOUDS
INCREASE SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A LARGE AND COMPLEX LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM APPROACHING FROM THE S AND W...WITH RAIN ARRIVING FROM THE S
BY LATE SUNDAY.  RAIN WILL BRING CIGS DOWN TO AROUND 5KFT BUT MVFR
VSBY POSSIBLE BY THE END OF THE PERIOD SRN SITES.  EXCEPTION IS BKW
WHERE SE FLOW WILL BECOME QUITE GUSTY...POTENTIALLY UP TO AROUND 30
KTS BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.   THESE STRONG SE WINDS WILL BRING
CIGS DOWN TO NEAR THE IFR THRESHOLD BY THE END OF THE PERIOD.

LIGHT S TO SE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME SE ON SUNDAY AND
STRENGTHEN...BECOMING GUSTY SRN SITES BUT QUITE STRONG AND GUSTY ON
THE RIDGES OF THE WV MOUNTAINS.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME
LIGHT S SUNDAY MORNING AND THEN MODERATE S SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...DECREASING LATE.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RAIN AND ASSOCIATED MVFR VSBY LATE
SUNDAY COULD VARY.  LOW CIGS AND STRONG WINDS AT BKW SUNDAY
AFTERNOON COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SUN
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS SUNDAY NT INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 222052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 222052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
350 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD DEAL...AND
MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD TONIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE SOUTH AS THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE SOUTH THROUGH
THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH
H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS. PW
AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE A LOW
CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST. COLDER
AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY 06
TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WE HAVE LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE DETAILS FOR THE LONG TERM AS FAST FLOW
ALOFT DOMINATES.  THIS INCLUDES SEVERAL ELEMENTS NOT JUST
POPS...INCLUDING CLOUDS AND TEMPERATURE.  GENERALLY WENT A BIT
COLDER THAN WPC MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE AND A BIT MORE LIBERAL ON
CHANCE POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS.

AT THE START OF EXTENDED...THINKING LEFTOVER STRATOCUMULUS LOW
LEVEL MOISTURE FROM THE DAY ON TUESDAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE
NORTH...SHOULD BE DRYING UP/THINNING TUESDAY EVENING.

WITH THE MEAN MID/UPPER LEVEL TROF STILL TO OUR WEST...ECMWF MOST
AGGRESSIVE KINKING THE MID LEVEL MOISTURE BACK WEST FOR WEDNESDAY.
CAN NOT GO THAT FAR WEST...WILL TREND MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND CMC
AND HAVE JUST CHANCE POPS FOR WEDNESDAY FOR MOSTLY LIGHT SNOW MAINLY
12Z TO 16Z WEDNESDAY SOME EASTERN MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

IN THE WAKE OF THAT EAST COAST SYSTEM...DISTURBANCES IN THE FAST
WEST AND NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT DOMINATE AROUND THANKSGIVING INTO
FRIDAY NIGHT. GFS SOLUTION HAS 850 MB TEMPERATURES WARMING UP
THURSDAY...AHEAD OF ONE OF THOSE SYSTEMS.  MEANWHILE...ECMWF MUCH
COLDER.  DID NOT GO AS COLD AS THE ECMWF.

THINK COLDEST 850 MB AIR SHOULD BE OVER US FRIDAY.  WILL INCLUDE
SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN COUNTIES FRIDAY
AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

DEEPER MOISTURE MAY START RETURNING BY END OF EXTENDED...OVERNIGHT
SATURDAY NIGHT.

OVERALL...NO MAJOR STORMS...BUT THE FINER DETAILS STILL HARD TO TIME.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 221924
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1201 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TO MONDAY MORNING WITH A WARM FRONT
LIFTING NORTH OVERNIGHT SUNDAY.  THE WARM TEMPERATURES WILL BE SHORT
LIVED AS THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT MOVES EAST THROUGH THE FORECAST
AREA EARLY MONDAY.  THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SHOWERS BEFORE EXITING MONDAY NIGHT.  BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT
MOSTLY DRY BUT MUCH COOLER WEATHER.

WINDS ON MONDAY AND INTO TUESDAY WILL BE STRONG...PARTICULARLY ALONG
THE OHIO RIVER VALLEY AND AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...WITH THE GFS
SHOWING 925MB WINDS OF UP TO 60 KTS OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY...HOWEVER...NOT CURRENTLY EXPECTING TO REACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA.  WINDS SHOULD DIMINISH THROUGH THE PERIOD AS THE STRONGER
WINDS LIFT NORTH.

THE CONSRAW APPEARS TO HAVE A GOOD HANDLE ON THE NONDIURNAL
TEMPERATURES FOR MONDAY SO USED IT WITH JUST A FEW TWEAKS.  LOWS
MONDAY MORNING WILL ONLY DIP INTO THE MID 50S BEFORE REACHING THE
HIGH BY AROUND 16Z.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 221731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT BREEZY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD
DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IN
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
30-40KTS LATER SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221731
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1231 PM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM BUT BREEZY SUNDAY. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT... FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR
RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
JUST A FEW RAIN SHOWERS STILL LINGERING ACROSS NORTHERN CWA...BUT
MOISTURE IS PULLING AWAY TO THE NORTH AND EXPECT THESE TO DRIFT
NORTH AND TAPER OFF EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRATUS DECK IS EVEN
BREAKING UP ACROSS SOUTHERN OH AND NORTHERN KY. WARM AIR ADVECTION
IS FINALLY KICKING IN AND HAVE RAISED TODAYS HIGHS A GOOD
DEAL...AND MAY NOT BE HIGH ENOUGH YET. AFTER A BRIEF DRIER PERIOD
TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MOISTURE REALLY INCREASES FROM THE
SOUTH AS THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES. HAVE POPS INCREASING FROM THE
SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY SUNDAY.

STRONG WINDS JUST OFF THE SURFACE TOMORROW...WITH GFS SHOWING UP
TO 80 KTS AT 850MB. ADD IN SOME DOWNSLOPING WITH THE EASTERLY
FLOW...AND EXPECT A VERY BREEZY AFTERNOON SUNDAY...ESPECIALLY FOR
THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND WESTERN SLOPES. DO NOT HAVE HIGH ENOUGH
WINDS FOR AN ADVISORY AT THIS POINT...BUT WILL NEED TO KEEP
WATCHING THIS. ALSO TRIED TO GO WITH LOWER POPS IN THE DRY
DOWNSLOPING REGION. HOLDING OFF ON LIKELY POPS FOR THOSE AREA
UNTIL SUNDAY EVENING.

INCREASED BOTH LOWS AND HIGHS. BLENDED MET INTO THE LOWS...AND
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN
SPREADING FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. NAM
SOUNDINGS DO INDICATE A BRIEF DROP INTO MVFR EARLY SUNDAY
MORNING...BUT THINK THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE MAY BE A BIT OVERDONE
SO LEFT OUT FOR NOW.

SW FLOW TODAY WILL BECOME GUSTY AND MORE SOUTHEASTERLY SUNDAY. IN
EASTERLY FLOW DOWNSLOPING PRONE AREAS COULD SEE SOME GUSTS
30-40KTS LATER SUNDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS NORTHWEST CWA SUNDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...ALLOWED FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY TO EXPIRE AS TEMPS
ARE QUICKLY CLIMBING ABOVE FREEZING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221328
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
828 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
820 AM UPDATE...WARM ADVECTION A BIT SLOWER TO PICK UP THAN
PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...SO LOWERED TEMPS FOR THE NEXT COUPLE HOURS.
THIS ALSO PROMPTED AN EXTENSION OF THE FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY
UNTIL 11 AM. HAVE RECEIVED A COUPLE CALLS FROM MORGAN COUNTY OHIO OF
FREEZING RAIN WITH ICE ON ROADS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 221148
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
648 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED PERRY COUNTY UNDER FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM.

LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
458 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LATEST RADAR TRENDS HAVE A SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVING TOWARDS WV AND
TEMPS ARE STILL IN THE MID TEENS. HRRR HAS THE SLUG DRYING OUT
EXCEPT FOR PORTIONS OF SE OHIO...SO WENT WITH A FREEZING RAIN
ADVISORY FOR A BRIEF PERIOD WHERE PRECIP WILL BE FALLING INTO A
COLD AIR MASS. OBSERVATION IN PERRY COUNTY AT 27 SO OPTED TO LEAVE
THEM OUT AS THE WARM AIR EXTENDS TO ABOUT PERRY CNTY. AFTER 9 AM
TEMPS SHOULD WARM ABOVE FREEZING AND THE FZRA THREAT WILL BE
GONE.

THEN A PLEASANT DRY...DAY WHERE TEMPERATURES REBOUND TO NORMAL.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ009.
OH...FREEZING RAIN ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR OHZ067-
     075-076-083>086.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220910
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWESTERLY TODAY...INCREASING SUNDAY FOR A WARMER
BUT WET WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT...
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT MONDAY WITH GOOD CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
AN APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL LIFT FROM THE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...NORTH NORTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY AND
MONDAY. MODELS INDICATE WIND FLOW WILL TURN DEEP FROM THE SOUTH
SOUTHWEST...TO BRING MOIST AND WARM AIR MASS ON SUNDAY. A WARM
FRONT WILL MERGE FROM THIS FLOW TO PRODUCE AREAS OF RAIN SPREADING
FROM SOUTH TO NORTH.

WIND FLOW WILL INCREASE BY 00Z MONDAY...AS SUGGESTED BY H850 WINDS
FROM THE GFS/ECMWF OF ABOUT 65-70 KNOTS. UNDER ISENTROPIC
UP GLIDING...IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY FOR SOME OF THESE WINDS TO
CREATE GUSTY CONDITIONS OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

AN ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT WILL CROSS WEST TO EAST EARLY MONDAY. WITH H850
TEMPERATURES AROUND 10C...EXPECT ALL PCPN TO FALL AS LIQUID.
THEREFORE...EXPECT ROUNDS OF SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS RAIN SHOWERS.
PW AROUND 1.25 INCHES AND STRONG DEEP LAYERED SHEAR COULD PRODUCE
A LOW CHANCE FOR THUNDER...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OUT OF FORECAST.
COLDER AIR RUSHES IN BEHIND THE COLD FRONT DROPPING TO MINUS 6C BY
06 TUESDAY.

WENT CLOSE TO PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES...PERHAPS A LITTLE WARMER
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY DUE TO STRONG DEEP SOUTH SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220541
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1241 AM EST SAT NOV 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR WEATHER. A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING AND THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   SAT 11/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 220007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
707 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  SOUTHERLY FLOW ON ITS BACK SIDE WILL
BRING ABOUT A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND...BUT LOW
PRESSURE BRINGS A WET SECOND HALF TO IT.  COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...
ADDED A 20-30 PERCENT CHANCE FOR RAIN AND FREEZING RAIN TO PERRY
COUNTY SAT MORNING...NOT ENOUGH TO WARRANT ANY HAZARDS.  ANY
FREEZING RAIN SHOULD BE RATHER LIGHT / BRIEF...AS THE COLD AIR
SHOULD BE QUICKLY ERADICATED.  THE DRY LOW LEVEL AIR THAT WOULD WET
BULB THE TEMPERATURE AT THE ONSET OF ANY PRECIPITATION MAY ALSO HOLD
OFF SAID ONSET.

PREV DISCN BELOW...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET VFR AVIATION PERIOD EVEN AS HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT.  A
WARM FRONT LIFTING NWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ON SAT WILL
BRING SOME ALTOCU AND STRATOCU...ESPECIALLY TO NRN SITES
PKB-CKB-EKN.  A BRIEF PERIOD OF FREEZING RAIN IS POSSIBLE IN
INTERIOR SE OHIO SAT MORNING.

LIGHT...NEARLY CALM FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT S ON SAT.
LIGHT NW NW FLOW ALOFT BACKS TO LIGHT SW OVER THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS AND MODERATE SW OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
OVERNIGHT...AND THEN REMAINS SO ON SAT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS INTERIOR SE OHIO
SAT MORNING THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT MIDDAY AND AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 SAT
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN MOUNTAIN SLOPES AND ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY IN RAIN AND STRATUS LATE SUN INTO MON MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
WARM...BUT RAINY CONDITIONS DURING THE SHORT TERM PERIOD.
SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER SHORTWAVE AND SURFACE WARM FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH
LOW PRESSURE THAT WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE SOUTHERN GULF
STATES INTO THE MIDWEST. GOOD MOISTURE FETCH WITH STRONG SOUTHERLY
FLOW...AND PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 1.25 INCHES BY SUNDAY
AFTERNOON...WHICH IS ABOUT 2 STANDARD DEVIATIONS ABOVE NORMAL FOR
THIS TIME OF YEAR. WITH THE STRONG WINDS ALOFT...AND TIGHTENING
PRESSURE GRADIENT ACROSS THE AREA...EXPECT RATHER GUSTY
WINDS...PARTICULARLY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH  MONDAY...PARTICULARLY
ALONG THE RIDGE TOPS. COULD STILL BE A CHANCE FOR A RUMBLE OF
THUNDER DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO LEAVE OUT FOR
NOW.

BULK OF FORCING WILL PUSH OFF TO THE NORTH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT...WITH
DRIER WEATHER TAKING HOLD FOR THE FIRST PART OF MONDAY.
HOWEVER...COLD FRONT...WILL BE SWINGING THROUGH THE AREA DURING THE
DAY MONDAY...WITH AN INCREASE IN POPS ONCE AGAIN. LOOKING AT THIS
POINT THAT NOT ENOUGH COLD AIR WILL WORK ITS WAY INTO THE CWA DURING
THE SHORT TERM PERIOD FOR A CHANGE OVER TO SNOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SHOWERS WILL BEGIN TO END ON MONDAY NIGHT AS THE TROUGH WEAKENS AND
MOVES EAST.  MODEL TRENDS HAVE WAFFLED A BIT WITH NEITHER THE GFS
AND ECMWF STAYING WITH A GREAT SOLUTION.  SHORTWAVES ARE MORE
EVIDENT IN DEEPER TROUGH EXHIBITED BY THE ECMWF...BUT THE GFS
CURRENTLY SHOWS A MORE WESTERN FLOW.  TOOK A BLEND OF THE TWO MODELS
TO RESOLVE SOME OF THE DISAGREEMENT IN THE HOPES THE SOLUTIONS WILL
CONVERGE AS WE MOVE CLOSER IN TIME.

TEMPERATURES WILL COOL SIGNIFICANTLY BY TUESDAY WITH THE PASSAGE OF
A COLD FRONT.  THESE COOLER TEMPERATURES COMBINED WITH LOW PRESSURE
MOVING EAST FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PROVIDE SOME OPPORTUNITY FOR
SOME SNOW SHOWERS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER EARLY
THURSDAY...TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS.  THE
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME SNOW SHOWERS
THROUGH THE NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1220 PM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE DRIFTS EAST INTO TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED
WARMING TREND THIS WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER
SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT AS HIGH
PULLS EAST. MAY EVEN HAVE A VERY WEAK WARM FRONT DRIFTING NORTH
ACROSS OHIO. MOISTURE WILL REMAIN NORTH AND WEST OF CWA...SO LEFT
ANY POPS OUT OF FAR NW CORNER. PLUS...ANY PRECIP THAT MAY FALL
FROM CLOUDS WILL LIKELY EVAPORATE BEFORE HITTING THE GROUND WITH
DRY AIR STILL AT THE SURFACE. STARTED WITH A MAV/MET BLEND FOR HIGHS
AND LOWS...THEN MADE A FEW TWEAKS. WENT NON-DIURNAL ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN TONIGHT...AND ALSO WENT A BIT WARMER ACROSS THE WEST AS
CLOUDS MOVE IN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH TAF PERIOD. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE
FROM WEST OVERNIGHT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN VFR. AS HIGH PRESSURE
DRIFTS PAST WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY...BECOMING
SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOW CHANCE OF MVFR CIGS SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ACROSS THE NORTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/MZ/LS
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211400
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
900 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
900 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED HOURLY TEMPS AND SKY BASED ON CURRENT OBS
AND TRENDS BUT NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/30
NEAR TERM...MZ/JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210944
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
444 AM EST FRI NOV 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
MOISTURE STARVED NORTHWEST UPSLOPE FLOW THIS MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY A PRONOUNCED WARMING TREND THIS
WEEKEND. LOW PRESSURE BRINGS WET WEATHER SUNDAY. COOLER NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LIGHT NW FLOW IS BRINGING SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS TO THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THESE SHOWERS WILL DISSIPATE TODAY AS HIGH
PRESSURE BUILDS.

TEMPERATURES START TO MODERATE A BIT TODAY...BUT STILL REMAIN
ABOUT 20 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL. TONIGHT SHOULD BE THE LAST BELOW
FREEZING NIGHT FOR A FEW DAYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL WITH DRY AND WARM WEATHER
SATURDAY...BEFORE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA UNDER ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.

A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE APPROACHES FROM THE SOUTH SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM WILL PRODUCE SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW IN THE MID TO LOW
LEVELS BRINGING A WARM FRONT WITH CHANCES FOR RAIN SHOWERS AND
WARMER TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

PCPN INCREASES SUNDAY WITH A STRONG SHORTWAVE LIFTING
NORTH...PUSHING HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT INTO THE REGION. H850
TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO 11C...WARM ENOUGH FOR PCPN TO FALL AS
RAIN. LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS REMAINS SUNDAY. KEEP LIKELY POPS
THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT MAINLY NORTHERN SECTIONS PER MODELS CONSENSUS
ON THE STRONGEST FORCING.

STRONG WINDS AT H50 REACHING 60-70 KNOTS COULD PRODUCE GUSTY
CONDITIONS MAINLY OVER HIGHER ELEVATIONS UNDER UPGLIDE FLOW.

STRONGER WINDS ARE ANTICIPATED AS PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ON
SUNDAY...TO PRODUCE GUSTY CONDITIONS AT TIMES...PARTICULARLY
ACROSS RIDGE TOPS.

WENT A BLEND OF MET AND MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT...SLIGHTLY WARMER UNDER STRONG SOUTHWEST FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN FAIRLY MILD EARLY IN THE WEEK WITH LOWS IN
THE 50S OVERNIGHT SUNDAY AND HIGHS IN THE MID 60S FOR THE
LOWLANDS...MID 50S FOR THE MOUNTAINS. RAIN AND SOME GUSTY WINDS CAN
BE EXPECTED BEGINNING THE PERIOD...BUT THIS WILL END QUICKLY
TRANSITIONING INTO MOSTLY DRY WEATHER FOR TUESDAY.

A WEAKENING 500 MB TROUGH WILL ALLOW COLD TEMPERATURES TO DIP SOUTH
AND COULD BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SNOW EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING
TRANSITIONING TO RAIN BY AFTERNOON FOR THE LOWLANDS BEFORE ENDING IN
THE AFTERNOON.  THE MOUNTAINS WILL HOLD ON TO A CHANCE OF SNOW
SHOWERS THROUGH THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THANKSGIVING...WITH ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF SOME PRECIPITATION IN SE OHIO AS A FEW RIPPLES MOVE ALONG THE
HIGH.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR SNOW SHOWERS MAY REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR IN THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS
THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD BREAK TO VFR BY THIS AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR STRATUS MAY EXPAND IN COVERAGE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         FRI 11/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE ON EASTERN SLOPES SUNDAY AFTERNOON IN RAIN AND CLOUDS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...LS
AVIATION...JW









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