Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KRLX 271817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW RELATIVELY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST MODEL RUNS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH THE STATIONARY DIFFUSE
FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS
ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING NE-WARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT MAINLY TO OUR WEST BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS
APPRECIABLY LATER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS...WITH THE BULK OF THE
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE NOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT POOLING LLVL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WARRANTS THE CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF
1.60IN AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF NEAR 10KFT...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW
CONVECTIVE MOTION UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE...A FEW
STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS LATE FRI AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AREA WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIND SHIFTING FROM E/SE TO S BY 12
SAT...AND TO THE SW BY 18Z SAT. UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO TURN SW AS WELL
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE EAST.  STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP TRANSLATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS` LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS AND AREA
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A LATE-DAY
SHIFT IN BL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AIDING CONVERGENCE...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY-IDENTICAL TO FRIDAY/S...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER...WITH NEAR 90F THE GENERAL RULE FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY THROUGH 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV. EXPECT
BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN
WV...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...SUCH AS AT
KHTS...KPKB...AND KCKB. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...AFFECTING SITES KEKN...KBKW...AND KCRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271817
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOT AND MORE HUMID SATURDAY.
DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ONGOING FORECAST IS PRETTY MUCH ON TRACK WITH ONLY A FEW RELATIVELY
MINOR ADJUSTMENTS PER LATEST MODEL RUNS. THURSDAY NIGHT SHOULD
REMAIN DRY FOR MOST LOCATIONS...BUT CONTINUED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
PRECIP ACROSS THE VIRGINIA COUNTIES WITH THE STATIONARY DIFFUSE
FRONT REMAINS JUST SOUTH. BY FRIDAY...UPPER RIDGING PASSES OVERHEAD
WITH AN UPPER TROUGH PUSHING INTO THE CENTRAL/NORTHERN PLAINS. ITS
ASSOC SFC LOW WILL BE MOVING NE-WARD INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES
WHICH WILL BEGIN TO LIFT THE PREVIOUSLY-STALLED BOUNDARY NORTHWARD
AS A WARM FRONT MAINLY TO OUR WEST BY LATE FRIDAY. THIS APPEARS
APPRECIABLY LATER VERSUS PREV MODEL RUNS...WITH THE BULK OF THE
BETTER LLVL MOISTURE NOW REMAINING SOUTH OF THE FORECAST AREA FOR
MUCH OF THE DAY. WENT AHEAD AND REMOVED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR MOST
FOR THE DAY FRIDAY...BUT POOLING LLVL MOISTURE ON SOUTHEAST BOUNDARY
LAYER FLOW WARRANTS THE CONTINUATION OF SLIGHT AND LOW CHANCE POPS
IN THE EAST/SOUTHEAST MOUNTAIN AREAS. NOT REALLY EXPECTING ANY
WIDESPREAD HAZARDS WITH THIS ACTIVITY. HOWEVER WITH PWATS UPWARDS OF
1.60IN AND A WARM CLOUD DEPTH OF NEAR 10KFT...ALONG WITH VERY SLOW
CONVECTIVE MOTION UNDERNEATH THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER RIDGE...A FEW
STORMS MIGHT PRODUCE SOME GOOD RAIN AMOUNTS LATE FRI AFTERNOON
ESPECIALLY OVER THE SOUTHERN COALFIELDS AREA WHERE THE BETTER
INSTABILITY WILL RESIDE. OTHERWISE...A HOT DAY WITH TEMPS IN THE
UPPER 80S AND A FEW LOW 90S STILL APPEAR ON TRACK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY THE WARM FRONT MAKES ITS MOVE NORTHWARD
ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA...WITH WIND SHIFTING FROM E/SE TO S BY 12
SAT...AND TO THE SW BY 18Z SAT. UPPER FLOW WILL ALSO TURN SW AS WELL
WITH UPPER RIDGE AXIS OFF TO THE EAST.  STILL EXPECT MOST LOCATIONS
TO BE DRY OVERNIGHT FRIDAY NIGHT...BUT DECIDED TO INSERT A SLIGHT CHANCE
OF PRECIP TRANSLATING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST PRIMARILY BTWN 06Z-12Z
SAT BASED ON CONSENSUS OF MODELS` LLVL MOISTURE FIELDS AND AREA
MODEL POINT SOUNDINGS. BY SATURDAY AFTERNOON...PRECIP SHOULD ONCE
AGAIN BE MAINLY CONFINED TO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A LATE-DAY
SHIFT IN BL WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH AIDING CONVERGENCE...WITH SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
NEARLY-IDENTICAL TO FRIDAY/S...AND PERHAPS ANOTHER DEGREE OR TWO
WARMER...WITH NEAR 90F THE GENERAL RULE FOR SATURDAY IN THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY THROUGH 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV. EXPECT
BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN
WV...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...SUCH AS AT
KHTS...KPKB...AND KCKB. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...AFFECTING SITES KEKN...KBKW...AND KCRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL











000
FXUS61 KRLX 271724
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY THROUGH 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV. EXPECT
BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN
WV...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...SUCH AS AT
KHTS...KPKB...AND KCKB. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...AFFECTING SITES KEKN...KBKW...AND KCRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271724
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
124 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH ABOUT 06Z...ALTHOUGH ISOLATED
CONVECTION IS EXPECTED MAINLY THROUGH 03Z...MAINLY ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN/CENTRAL WV. EXPECT
BRIEF LOW VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS IN VICINITY OF STORMS.

OTHERWISE...AFTER 06Z...EXPECTING MVFR/IFR FOG FORMATION ACROSS
PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND NORTHERN
WV...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAIN...SUCH AS AT
KHTS...KPKB...AND KCKB. EXPECTING WIDESPREAD MVFR STRATUS TO
DEVELOP ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN/EASTERN WV...MAINLY AFTER
06Z...AFFECTING SITES KEKN...KBKW...AND KCRW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271644
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271644
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 PM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOTTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE
ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WEAK COLD FRONT AT 16Z ENTERING SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WITH
CONVECTION FIRING ALONG THE FRONT IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING.
FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SLOWLY SINK SOUTH ACROSS THE AREA THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...ENDING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES BY 12Z
THURSDAY. STILL EXPECTING BULK OF CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...WITH A GENERAL WANE
IN THE BULK OF ACTIVITY WITH LOSS OF HEATING...ALTHOUGH DID
CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A SLIGHT CHANCE OVERNIGHT AS THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH.

MODELS ARE CONTINUING TO INDICATE AN ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO FOG
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTH...I.E. SOUTHEAST OHIO AND ADJACENT WV
COUNTIES...WITH STRATUS ACROSS MUCH OF WV/SOUTHWEST VA...ZONES.
CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A FORECAST REFLECTIVE OF THIS OVERNIGHT.
AREAS THAT GET RAIN TODAY...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL
LIKELY BE SOCKED IN IN FOG TONIGHT.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/50/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271325
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
925 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM UPDATE...TWEAKED POP AND SKY GRIDS...OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES
WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271211
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271211
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS. WEST TO SOUTHWEST FLOW WITH
SEVERAL MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL RESULT IN ON AND OFF CHANCES
OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE
NORTHWEST LATE IN THE PERIOD...WITH THIS FEATURE POSSIBLY PUSHING
ACROSS THE AREA BY LATE WEDNESDAY.

BEST CHANCE OF GETTING WET STILL APPEARS TO BE ON SUNDAY...WHEN A
DECENT SHORTWAVE PASSES BY.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH
THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND
INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY.
NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH
THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND
INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY.
NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG HAS BEEN A BIT MORE SPORADIC THIS MORNING THAN LAST.
ANTICIPATE ANY REMAINING FOG DISSIPATING BY 13Z. VFR CONDITIONS
SHOULD BE IN PLACE TODAY. AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE
NW...WILL SEE SOME SHOWERS AND MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER...MAINLY
ACROSS WESTERN CWA TODAY. HAVE MENTION OF VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. MAY
NEED TO EXPAND IT FARTHER EAST BASED ON TRENDS LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. DID NOT INCLUDE ANY RESTRICTIONS WITH THE PRECIP...BUT
CANNOT RULE OUT THE NEED FOR AN AMENDMENT/TEMPO SHOULD A CELL
APPROACH A TERMINAL THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE SOME LOW STRATUS TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND INTO THE EASTERN WV LOWLANDS. FARTHER
EAST...CLOUDS COULD SCATTER OUT AND SOME FOG WOULD BE POSSIBLE.
OVERALL FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE ON EXACT  LOW STRATUS VS. FOG LINE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG/LOW STRATUS MAY VARY
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
LOCAL IFR IN VALLEY FOG EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN
SHOWERS/STORMS SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 270819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH
THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND
INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY.
NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG A BIT LATER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF
DRYING MAKING AN IMPACT. STILL...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS DENSE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE WILL START GETTING SOME CLOUDS FILTER
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED TODAY.

AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE WESTERN
CWA...SO HAVE VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...SHOULD A CELL MOVE OVER A TAF SITE MAY
NEED AN AMENDMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ














000
FXUS61 KRLX 270819
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. HOOTER AND MORE HUMID
SATURDAY. DEEPER MOISTURE SUNDAY ASSOCIATED WITH DISTURBANCE ALOFT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYNOPTICALLY...SURFACE FRONT CURRENTLY CROSSING NW OHIO AND N
INDIANA. ANTICIPATE THE FRONT REACHING NW CWA AROUND 15Z...CROSSING
THE OHIO RIVER 19Z-20Z...ALL THE WHILE WEAKENING AS IT SINKS SOUTH.
HAVE BEST CHANCE OF POPS ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...GRADUALLY FADING INTO TONIGHT. FRONT LOOKS TO CLEAR CWA
TO THE SOUTH...BUT ENOUGH MOISTURE REMAINS TO KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN SOUTHERN QUARTER OF CWA THROUGH THE NIGHT. BASED ON FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...EXPECT LOW STRATUS DECK TO DEVELOP IN MAINLY WV/VA
PORTIONS OF CWA OVERNIGHT WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW IN THE BOUNDARY
LAYER.

MET CONTINUES TO PERFORM WELL ON HIGH TEMPS IN THIS PATTERN...SO
LEANED THAT WAY...COOLING HIGHS MAYBE A DEGREE AVERAGE ACROSS CWA.
USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...COOLING THE NORTH A TOUCH AND
WARMING THE SOUTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STILL THOUGHT THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION WAS A BIT QUICK/FAST DRYING OUT
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE...LEFT IN THE DEW POINT GRADIENT ASSOCIATED
WITH THE WEAKENING FRONT. SO WILL HOLD ONTO A SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN
SOME OF OUR SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES THURSDAY
MORNING...MAINLY BKW ON SW.  BY AFTERNOON...WILL HAVE THAT SLIGHT
CHANCE POPS LINGERING FOR A SHOWER OR STORM JUST IN OUR 2 VIRGINIA
COUNTIES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  CERTAINLY THE FURTHER NORTH/NORTHEAST
ON THURSDAY...THE DRIER THE AIR.

THE 500 MB RIDGE AXIS MOVES OVER US ON FRIDAY...SO WE LOSE THE NW
FLOW ALOFT.  AOB 850 MBS THOUGH THE WEAK FLOW IS SOMEWHAT SE AND
UPSLOPE INTO OUR EASTERN SLOPES.  WILL CONTINUE THE CHANCE POPS
FRIDAY AFTERNOON FROM OUR GREENBRIER VALLEY ON SW IN THE SOUTHERN WV
MOUNTAINS TO SW VA.

THE ONLY CHANCE MADE TO SATURDAY WAS TO INCREASE MAXIMUM
TEMPERATURE.  THE LAST OF THE DRY AIR THAT WAS SHOVED ON THE WAY
DOWN INTO THE DEEP SOUTH WILL RETURN NE...THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON
SATURDAY. 850 MBS TEMPS NEAR 20C.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ON THE WEDNESDAY MORNING GRAVEYARD SHIFT...ENOUGH CONSISTENCY WITH
THE 00Z MODELS TO JUMP INTO THE START OF THE LONG TERM...AND
INCREASE POPS TO 60 PERCENT/LIKELY FOR MUCH OF OUR CWA FOR SUNDAY.
NO FRONT OR WELL DEFINED SURFACE SYSTEM...BUT MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE
RIDES NORTHEAST THROUGH OUR VICINITY ON SUNDAY WITH DEEP MOISTURE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW

LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG A BIT LATER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF
DRYING MAKING AN IMPACT. STILL...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS DENSE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE WILL START GETTING SOME CLOUDS FILTER
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED TODAY.

AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE WESTERN
CWA...SO HAVE VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...SHOULD A CELL MOVE OVER A TAF SITE MAY
NEED AN AMENDMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ













000
FXUS61 KRLX 270542
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
142 AM EDT WED AUG 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FOG A BIT LATER TO DEVELOP TONIGHT WITH AN ADDITIONAL DAY OF
DRYING MAKING AN IMPACT. STILL...ANTICIPATE RIVER VALLEY FOG TO
FORM OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DO NOT EXPECT IT TO BE AS DENSE
ALONG THE OHIO RIVER WHERE WILL START GETTING SOME CLOUDS FILTER
IN EARLY THIS MORNING. FOG SHOULD DISSIPATE AROUND 13Z...WITH VFR
EXPECTED TODAY.

AS A COLD FRONT SINKS INTO CWA...CANNOT RULE OUT SOME SHOWERS AND
MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. BEST CHANCE OF THIS WILL BE WESTERN
CWA...SO HAVE VCTS AT PKB AND HTS. WHILE NO WIDESPREAD
RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED...SHOULD A CELL MOVE OVER A TAF SITE MAY
NEED AN AMENDMENT THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270244
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1036 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
WEAK HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE HOLIDAY WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 270133
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270133
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
926 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 262359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 262359
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
747 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z WEDNESDAY THRU 00Z THURSDAY...
THRU 12Z...CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO RIVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE LIFR IN DENSE FOG.
TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST A
COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER. CKB
AND BKW WILL REMAIN VFR.

AFTER 12Z...ANY RIVER VALLEY FOG DISSIPATES RAPIDLY. THE FIRST ROUND
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY ENTER NORTHWEST ZONES
AROUND 12Z AND SLOWLY PROGRESS SOUTHEAST WITH THE FRONT. WILL KEEP
JUST SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY NORTH HALF
THRU THE DAY WEDNESDAY. THUS...VFR CEILINGS PREVAIL NORTH HALF AND
SCT CLOUDS SOUTH HALF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 08/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 261823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR DAY AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER NT OF RADIATION FOG IN THE
VALLEYS.  A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WAS FIRING UP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHICAGO EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO ROVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE VLIFR IN DENSE
FOG.  TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS TUE...PROBABLY REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON OVER / NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THESE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
SCATTERED TO LEAVE DIRECT IMPACTS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE.

SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY BACKS TOWARD THE NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 261823
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
222 PM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT.  A COLD FRONT CROSSES WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BUT SLOWS UP OVER SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA THURSDAY.
IT THEN MOVES BACK NORTHEASTWARD AS A WARM FRONT ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT...ALLOWING COLD FRONT TO REACH THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BY WED EVENING.  THIS WILL GIVE RISE TO ONE MORE
PEACEFUL NT TONIGHT.  CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH CONVECTION ALONG AND
AHEAD OF THE FRONT WILL LIKELY PRECLUDE DENSE FOG IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...BUT THE VALLEYS OF WV AND SW VA SHOULD
SEE A NEAR REPEAT OF LAST NT.

MAY SEE THE REMNANTS OF ONGOING CONVECTION REACHING THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY LATE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT / TOWARD DAWN WED AND TRAVERSING SEWD
THROUGH THE AREA THROUGH MIDDAY.  FIGURING ON DECREASING COVERAGE
AND INTENSITY AS THE ASSOCIATED UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH PUSHES EWD
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES.  THIS WILL LIKELY ALLOW TIME ENOUGH FOR
ANOTHER LINE OF CONVECTION TO TRY TO GET GOING LATER WED
AFTERNOON...ALONG AND RIGHT AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT ARRIVING IN THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

MAV LOOKED TOO LOW ON LOWS TONIGHT WHILE MET / BIAS CORRECTED MET
APPEARED TO BE A BETTER FIT.  MAV SEEMED HIGH ON HIGHS WED ALTHOUGH
IT MAY PAN OUT IN THE WARM AXIS AHEAD OF THE FRONT IF THERE IS NOT
MUCH CLOUD AND PRECIPITATION THROUGH MIDDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NOT MANY WHOLESALE CHANGES TO ONGOING FORECAST IN THE NEAR TERM.
STILL EXPECTING A ENE-WSW ORIENTED FRONT TO BE INTO THE NORTHERN
THIRD OR SO OF THE FORECAST AREA AT THE OUTSET...WHICH WILL CONTINUE
TO SLOWLY SAG SOUTHWARD WHILE BECOMING MORE DIFFUSE TOWARDS THE DAWN
HOURS THURSDAY. AGAIN...AS PREV DISC NOTED...NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF
OTHER FORCING SAVE FOR CONVECTIVE FORCING SO WILL CONTINUE TO CAP
POPS IN THE MID-RANGE AREA DURING THE MID/LATE EVENING TIME FRAME.
BEHIND THE FRONT...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES COOLER ON THURSDAY.
KEPT MOST OF THE AREA DRY BUT LINGERED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
FAR SOUTHERN WV AND VA ZONES WHERE A BIT MORE LLVL MOISTURE AND
INSTABILITY WILL CONTINUE TO RESIDE.  WARM FRONT IS STILL PROGGED TO
LIFT QUICKLY NORTHEAST DURING THE MORNING HOURS AND AS SUCH WILL
HAVE POPS ALSO LIFTING NORTHEAST JUST AHEAD OF AND THEN BEHIND THE
FRONT. ONLY REAL CHANGE TO FRIDAY/S FORECAST WAS TO INCREASE MAX
TEMPS WITH THE PASSAGE OF WARM FRONT. PROGGED 925MB TEMPS ON LATEST
NAM/EC/GFS RUNS ALL DEPICT TEMPS OF 25C-27C...WHICH WOULD SUPPORT
TEMPS IN THE UPPER 80S AND PERHAPS A FEW 90F READINGS SOUTH AND WEST.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LEANED TOWARD WPC WITH SOME TWEAKS DURING THE LONG TERM PERIOD.
MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW BACKING TO
SOUTHWEST BY THE START OF THE PERIOD AS UPPER RIDGE AXIS MOVES OFF
TO THE EAST. THIS WILL ALLOW A CONTINUED GOOD MOISTURE FEED INTO THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH AT LEAST A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP
FOR MUCH OF THE TIME. CONTINUED MID/HIGH CHANCE POPS SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY AS ONE FRONT APPROACHES AND BRUSHES BY THE AREA TO THE NORTH
DURING THAT TIME FRAME. TUESDAY APPEARS DRIER AT THIS POINT IN TIME
BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR DAY AND EVENING GIVING WAY TO ANOTHER NT OF RADIATION FOG IN THE
VALLEYS.  A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES WAS FIRING UP
THUNDERSTORMS FROM NEAR CHICAGO EWD ACROSS NRN INDIANA AND SRN LOWER
MICHIGAN.  CLOUDS APPROACHING AHEAD OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY KEEP
PKB AND HTS ALONG THE OHIO ROVER FROM GETTING DENSE FOG OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT...LEAVING EKN AND CRW MOST LIKELY TO SEE VLIFR IN DENSE
FOG.  TIMING SHOULD BE SIMILAR TO LAST NT...7Z EKN 9Z CRW...AND JUST
A COUPLE OF HOURS OF MIST AS DAWN APPROACHES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

THE FIRST ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CROSS IN
THE MORNING TO MIDDAY HOURS TUE...PROBABLY REMNANTS OF THE
AFOREMENTIONED CONVECTION GOING ON THIS AFTERNOON OVER / NEAR THE
LOWER GREAT LAKES.  THESE REMNANTS ARE LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENTLY
SCATTERED TO LEAVE DIRECT IMPACTS OUT OF THE TAFS AT THIS DISTANCE.

SFC FLOW WILL REMAIN LIGHT AND VARIABLE WHILE LIGHT NE FLOW ALOFT
GRADUALLY BACKS TOWARD THE NW DURING THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/50
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...50
LONG TERM...50
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 261044
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
644 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY...AS FRONT DROPS
THROUGH GREAT LAKES. FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DRIER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT
WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING CWA NOW JUST AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS OVER 12 HOURS FASTER THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS PRECIP FREE THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND WITH TODAYS RUNS.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES THE MET HAS BEEN BETTER THAN
THE MAV ON HIGH TEMPS...SO BLENDED MET INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS. USED A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATE AUGUST WITH A WEAK FRONT OOZING SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRYING TO OSCILLATE BACK
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF BEING SLOWER WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRYING OUT
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WILL KEEP OUR POPS ON
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE DEW POINT GRADIENT OR FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT GRADIENT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF THOSE LOWER DEW
POINTS MAY LEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE TRENDING TOO QUICK.

IN ANY CASE CAN ONLY GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEAK FORCING.  THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA.

HELD ONTO SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING NEAR THE LEFTOVER DEW POINT GRADIENT/FRONT...THEN KEEP
NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHTS...COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/DAWN FOG
ON THESE 2 NIGHTS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AROUND WITH
THE WEAK FRONT...DID NOT INSERT THICK FOG YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FOG ALREADY SHOWING SOME SIGNS OF BREAKING UP...AND EXPECT SITES
LEFT WITH FOG WILL RETURN TO VFR AROUND 13Z. VFR EXPECTED THROUGH
THE DAY...WITH LIGHT WINDS AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. COLD FRONT
APPROACHING FROM THE NNW TONIGHT...WILL BEGIN SPREADING SOME MID
CLOUDS ACROSS SE OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...AND CROSSING THE OHIO RIVER
TONIGHT. ANTICIPATE ANOTHER ROUND OF RIVER VALLEY FOG ACROSS
EASTERN CWA -- NAMELY THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES INTO THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS WHERE SKIES SHOULD REMAIN MOSTLY CLEAR. MAY INITIALLY
GET SOME HINTS OF FOG WEST...BUT THINK IT WILL GET OVERRUN BY
CLOUDS THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY TONIGHT
DEPENDING ON INCOMING CLOUDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 260755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY...AS FRONT DROPS
THROUGH GREAT LAKES. FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DRIER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT
WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING CWA NOW JUST AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS OVER 12 HOURS FASTER THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS PRECIP FREE THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND WITH TODAYS RUNS.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES THE MET HAS BEEN BETTER THAN
THE MAV ON HIGH TEMPS...SO BLENDED MET INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS. USED A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATE AUGUST WITH A WEAK FRONT OOZING SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRYING TO OSCILLATE BACK
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF BEING SLOWER WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRYING OUT
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WILL KEEP OUR POPS ON
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE DEW POINT GRADIENT OR FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT GRADIENT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF THOSE LOWER DEW
POINTS MAY LEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE TRENDING TOO QUICK.

IN ANY CASE CAN ONLY GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEAK FORCING.  THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA.

HELD ONTO SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING NEAR THE LEFTOVER DEW POINT GRADIENT/FRONT...THEN KEEP
NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHTS...COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/DAWN FOG
ON THESE 2 NIGHTS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AROUND WITH
THE WEAK FRONT...DID NOT INSERT THICK FOG YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS
CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT
CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS
DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING
MAINLY ON WIND.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ














000
FXUS61 KRLX 260755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS WITH DRIER AIR IN PLACE TODAY...AS FRONT DROPS
THROUGH GREAT LAKES. FRONT SINKS SOUTH INTO OUR VICINITY WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IS FIRMLY IN PLACE WITH LIGHT WINDS AND SOME DRIER AIR
THAN WE HAVE SEEN OVER THE PAST WEEK. SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE DOES
TRY TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST TODAY...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT DROPPING
THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. HOWEVER...DO NOT EXPECT ANYTHING MORE THAN
SOME CLOUDS ACROSS WESTERN CWA WITH THIS. MODELS HAVE SPED UP A BIT
WITH THE COLD FRONT REACHING CWA NOW JUST AFTER THE NEAR TERM
PERIOD...WHICH IS OVER 12 HOURS FASTER THAN MODELS WERE SHOWING LAST
NIGHT. FOR NOW KEPT THINGS PRECIP FREE THROUGH TONIGHT...WILL HAVE
TO SEE IF MODELS CONTINUE THE FASTER TREND WITH TODAYS RUNS.

OVER THE PAST SEVERAL FORECAST CYCLES THE MET HAS BEEN BETTER THAN
THE MAV ON HIGH TEMPS...SO BLENDED MET INTO PREVIOUS HIGHS. USED A
CONSENSUS BLEND FOR TONIGHTS LOWS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
TRICKY FORECAST FOR LATE AUGUST WITH A WEAK FRONT OOZING SOUTH
ON WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN TRYING TO OSCILLATE BACK
NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.

WITH THE GEM AND ECMWF BEING SLOWER WEDNESDAY EVENING...DRYING OUT
OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES...THAN THE GFS AND NAM...WILL KEEP OUR POPS ON
TOWARD THE SLOWER SOLUTION.  THE LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST ON
BOTH SIDES OF THE DEW POINT GRADIENT OR FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.
THAT GRADIENT SINKING SOUTH THROUGH CENTRAL OHIO AND WESTERN
PENNSYLVANIA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...SOME OF THOSE LOWER DEW
POINTS MAY LEAK INTO OUR NORTHERN COUNTIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY...BUT AGAIN THE NAM AND GFS MAY BE TRENDING TOO QUICK.

IN ANY CASE CAN ONLY GO WITH SOME CHANCE POPS WITH THE FRONT...WITH
THE WEAK FORCING.  THE TRI STATE AROUND HTS SHOULD SEE A BIT MORE
INSTABILITY BY LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY OR EARLY WEDNESDAY
EVENING...COMPARED TO THE REST OF THE CWA.

HELD ONTO SOME 20 POPS OVERNIGHT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY
MORNING NEAR THE LEFTOVER DEW POINT GRADIENT/FRONT...THEN KEEP
NORTHERN COUNTIES DRY ON THURSDAY.

WITH THE LONGER LATE AUGUST NIGHTS...COULD SEE LATE NIGHT/DAWN FOG
ON THESE 2 NIGHTS...BUT WITH POSSIBLE LATE NIGHT CLOUDS AROUND WITH
THE WEAK FRONT...DID NOT INSERT THICK FOG YET.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS
CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT
CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS
DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING
MAINLY ON WIND.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ













000
FXUS61 KRLX 260519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
119 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS
CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT
CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS
DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING
MAINLY ON WIND.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 260519
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
119 AM EDT TUE AUG 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE NOSING IN FROM THE NE...WITH CALM WINDS AND
CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING. NAM SOUNDING TRY TO KEEP SOME WIND
JUST OFF THE SURFACE...WHICH IS SHOWING UP ON THE VAD...SO THIS
CREATES SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION. STILL...THINK RIVER
VALLEYS WILL BE DECOUPLED ENOUGH FOR SOME FOG. GOING IFR AT
CRW...HTS AND EKN...WITH MVFR AT PKB WITH SOME THIN CLOUDS
DRIFTING BY FROM TIME TO TIME. WILL RECOVER TO VFR AFTER
SUNRISE...WITH LIGHT WINDS THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY...DEPENDING
MAINLY ON WIND.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 260243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 260243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1040 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
03Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. BUT THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 260136
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
929 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 260136
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
929 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
930 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 252330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 252330
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
724 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH TUESDAY. FRONT ACROSS LOWER
GREAT LAKES TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z TUESDAY THRU 00Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST. THERE WILL BE SOME RIVER
VALLEY FOG AGAIN TONIGHT...MUCH LIKE LAST NIGHT. THIS MEANS CRW AND
ESPECIALLY EKN WILL HAVE IFR FOG AGAIN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z...THE
OTHER TERMINALS MAINLY BRIEF MVFR FOG.

AFTER 13Z WEDNESDAY...VFR MOSTLY CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM FOR FOG...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING...DEPENDING MAINLY ON WIND.  I

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 08/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 251812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH
TUESDAY.  FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST...SAVE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT.  THE FOG WILL FORM EARLIEST AT EKN...WITH IFR 06-14Z.  HAVE
IFR OTHER SITES 08-09 TO 14Z...EXCEPT JUST BRIEF MVFR NEAR DAWN CKB
WHILE BKW REMAINS VFR TONIGHT.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO TUE
UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE.   LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING.  IF LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME
REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY STIRRING OF
WIND OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LESS FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH
TUESDAY.  FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM AND HUMID WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. A FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL SINK SOUTH INTO THE AREA TUESDAY
NIGHT/WEDNESDAY...BEFORE GRADUALLY SINKING SOUTH ACROSS THE
REMAINDER OF THE CWA WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WAVES RIDING ALONG THE
FRONT WILL HELP TO KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE
TO CHANCE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. THINK BULK OF ACTIVITY SHOULD
DIE DOWN BOTH DAYS WITH LOSS OF HEATING.

MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES DURING THE PERIOD...WITH COOLER
TEMPERATURES EXPECTED ACROSS THE NORTH ON THURSDAY BEHIND THE
FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST...SAVE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT.  THE FOG WILL FORM EARLIEST AT EKN...WITH IFR 06-14Z.  HAVE
IFR OTHER SITES 08-09 TO 14Z...EXCEPT JUST BRIEF MVFR NEAR DAWN CKB
WHILE BKW REMAINS VFR TONIGHT.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO TUE
UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE.   LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING.  IF LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME
REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY STIRRING OF
WIND OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LESS FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH
TUESDAY.  FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST...SAVE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT.  THE FOG WILL FORM EARLIEST AT EKN...WITH IFR 06-14Z.  HAVE
IFR OTHER SITES 08-09 TO 14Z...EXCEPT JUST BRIEF MVFR NEAR DAWN CKB
WHILE BKW REMAINS VFR TONIGHT.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO TUE
UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE.   LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING.  IF LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME
REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY STIRRING OF
WIND OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LESS FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 251810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE NOSES SOUTHWEST INTO THE AREA WITH DRIER AIR THROUGH
TUESDAY.  FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH
TOWARD OUR VICINITY LATE WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NE THIS PERIOD WHILE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE RETREATS A BIT TO THE SW.  ALL OF THIS SPELLS A
DRY FCST AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO PUSH IN FROM THE E AT LOW LEVELS.

A WEAKNESS IN THE UPPER HIGH OVER CENTRAL OHIO TODAY WAS ACTUALLY
ASSOCIATED WITH A PATCH OF STOUT STRATOCU AND EVEN ISOLATED RETURNS
THERE.  THIS FEATURE WAS MOVING SLOWLY SWD AND SHOULD BECOME DIFFUSE
BY TUE...WITH NO IMPACT ON THE FCST OTHER THAN SOME CLOUD ALONG WRN
FRINGES OF THE FCST AREA THIS AFTERNOON.

WITH THE UPPER HIGH RETREATING AND SFC HIGH NOSING IN FROM THE
NE...TEMPERATURES WILL NOT MODIFY MUCH.  IN FACT...TONIGHT WILL BE A
TOUCH COOLER THAN LAST WITH LESS BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW...WHICH SHOULD
ALSO LEAD TO MORE DENSE VALLEY FOG.  ALL THIS IS SUPPORTED BY THE
LATEST GUIDANCE SUITE...WELL CONVERGED IN THIS BENIGN PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GIVES RISE TO A VFR FCST...SAVE FOR DENSE VALLEY FOG
TONIGHT.  THE FOG WILL FORM EARLIEST AT EKN...WITH IFR 06-14Z.  HAVE
IFR OTHER SITES 08-09 TO 14Z...EXCEPT JUST BRIEF MVFR NEAR DAWN CKB
WHILE BKW REMAINS VFR TONIGHT.

LIGHT SE SFC FLOW WILL BECOME CALM TONIGHT AND THEN REMAIN SO TUE
UNDER SFC HIGH PRESSURE.   LIGHT E FLOW ALOFT WILL BECOME LIGHT AND
VARIABLE THIS EVENING AND THEN LIGHT NE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF ONSET...AND EXTENT OF FOG...COULD
VARY EARLY TUE MORNING.  IF LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS BECOME
REALIZED LATE THIS AFTERNOON / EARLY THIS EVENING...ANY STIRRING OF
WIND OVERNIGHT COULD RESULT IN LESS FOG THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 251238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
838 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IS A BULLY. IT IS SHOWING THE MUGGY UNSTABLE
AIR...WHO IS THE BOSS TODAY...AND SHOVING IT EVEN FURTHER WEST.

FOR EXAMPLE...THE 925 MB DEW POINT WAS ABOUT 18C BACK AT 00Z ABOVE
CRW. THE 00Z NAM HAS IT DOWN TO 12C BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 15C.

THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE STILL THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES... BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN...REDUCING THE MEAN COLUMN RH.
EVEN BKW HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING A CEILING OVERNIGHT.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 925 MB WAS STILL BLOWING AT 15 KNOTS AT
07Z AT RLX. FIGURING EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTED TO JUST SOME OF
THE RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN RECENT DAWNS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WAS IN
WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.  THOUGHT WE COULD PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE AND ITS LINGERING MOISTURE MAXIMUM....
A BIT FURTHER WEST...AND JUST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY.

THE GROUND/VEGETATION SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...
AS DEW POINTS DROP.

SOME PREDAWN FOG TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIR AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INCLUDED SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SO FAR...THE MOVE MADE BACK IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS FOR LESS FOG IS
PANNING OUT. THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STILL HAVE SOME THICK
FOG...INCLUDING AROUND EKN.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE
GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG THROUGH 13Z MONDAY.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD TODAY.

LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM TONIGHT WILL BE LATE IN FORMING. BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH WEAKER WIND FLOW AT 925 MB AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG FORMING...MAINLY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIVER VALLEYS...WITH VSBY AOB 1 MILE AND SOME CEILINGS
AROUND 2 THSD FT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF ANY WIND STIRS OVERNIGHT...FOG COULD BE LESS
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
838 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IS A BULLY. IT IS SHOWING THE MUGGY UNSTABLE
AIR...WHO IS THE BOSS TODAY...AND SHOVING IT EVEN FURTHER WEST.

FOR EXAMPLE...THE 925 MB DEW POINT WAS ABOUT 18C BACK AT 00Z ABOVE
CRW. THE 00Z NAM HAS IT DOWN TO 12C BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 15C.

THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE STILL THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES... BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN...REDUCING THE MEAN COLUMN RH.
EVEN BKW HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING A CEILING OVERNIGHT.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 925 MB WAS STILL BLOWING AT 15 KNOTS AT
07Z AT RLX. FIGURING EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTED TO JUST SOME OF
THE RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN RECENT DAWNS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WAS IN
WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.  THOUGHT WE COULD PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE AND ITS LINGERING MOISTURE MAXIMUM....
A BIT FURTHER WEST...AND JUST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY.

THE GROUND/VEGETATION SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...
AS DEW POINTS DROP.

SOME PREDAWN FOG TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIR AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INCLUDED SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
USED WPC THINKING WITH SOME TWEAKS FOR BETTER CONSISTENCY WITH
PREVIOUS FORECASTS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL GIVE WAY ON FRIDAY...
ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO LIFT NORTHEAST ACROSS THE REGION BY LATE
FRIDAY MORNING. A COLD FRONT WILL THEN APPROACH FROM THE NORTHWEST
SUNDAY NIGHT...BEFORE PUSHING INTO THE FAR NORTHERN COUNTIES BY
MONDAY MORNING.

WPC TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND WERE GENERALLY USED.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SO FAR...THE MOVE MADE BACK IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS FOR LESS FOG IS
PANNING OUT. THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STILL HAVE SOME THICK
FOG...INCLUDING AROUND EKN.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE
GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG THROUGH 13Z MONDAY.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD TODAY.

LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM TONIGHT WILL BE LATE IN FORMING. BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH WEAKER WIND FLOW AT 925 MB AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG FORMING...MAINLY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIVER VALLEYS...WITH VSBY AOB 1 MILE AND SOME CEILINGS
AROUND 2 THSD FT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF ANY WIND STIRS OVERNIGHT...FOG COULD BE LESS
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JSH
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IS A BULLY. IT IS SHOWING THE MUGGY UNSTABLE
AIR...WHO IS THE BOSS TODAY...AND SHOVING IT EVEN FURTHER WEST.

FOR EXAMPLE...THE 925 MB DEW POINT WAS ABOUT 18C BACK AT 00Z ABOVE
CRW. THE 00Z NAM HAS IT DOWN TO 12C BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 15C.

THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE STILL THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES... BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN...REDUCING THE MEAN COLUMN RH.
EVEN BKW HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING A CEILING OVERNIGHT.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 925 MB WAS STILL BLOWING AT 15 KNOTS AT
07Z AT RLX. FIGURING EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTED TO JUST SOME OF
THE RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN RECENT DAWNS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WAS IN
WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.  THOUGHT WE COULD PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE AND ITS LINGERING MOISTURE MAXIMUM....
A BIT FURTHER WEST...AND JUST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY.

THE GROUND/VEGETATION SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...
AS DEW POINTS DROP.

SOME PREDAWN FOG TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIR AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INCLUDED SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SO FAR...THE MOVE MADE BACK IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS FOR LESS FOG IS
PANNING OUT. THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STILL HAVE SOME THICK
FOG...INCLUDING AROUND EKN.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE
GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG THROUGH 13Z MONDAY.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD TODAY.

LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM TONIGHT WILL BE LATE IN FORMING. BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH WEAKER WIND FLOW AT 925 MB AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG FORMING...MAINLY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIVER VALLEYS...WITH VSBY AOB 1 MILE AND SOME CEILINGS
AROUND 2 THSD FT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF ANY WIND STIRS OVERNIGHT...FOG COULD BE LESS
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 251024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IS A BULLY. IT IS SHOWING THE MUGGY UNSTABLE
AIR...WHO IS THE BOSS TODAY...AND SHOVING IT EVEN FURTHER WEST.

FOR EXAMPLE...THE 925 MB DEW POINT WAS ABOUT 18C BACK AT 00Z ABOVE
CRW. THE 00Z NAM HAS IT DOWN TO 12C BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 15C.

THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE STILL THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES... BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN...REDUCING THE MEAN COLUMN RH.
EVEN BKW HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING A CEILING OVERNIGHT.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 925 MB WAS STILL BLOWING AT 15 KNOTS AT
07Z AT RLX. FIGURING EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTED TO JUST SOME OF
THE RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN RECENT DAWNS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WAS IN
WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.  THOUGHT WE COULD PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE AND ITS LINGERING MOISTURE MAXIMUM....
A BIT FURTHER WEST...AND JUST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY.

THE GROUND/VEGETATION SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...
AS DEW POINTS DROP.

SOME PREDAWN FOG TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIR AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INCLUDED SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SO FAR...THE MOVE MADE BACK IN THE 06Z SET OF TAFS FOR LESS FOG IS
PANNING OUT. THE COOLER MOUNTAIN VALLEYS STILL HAVE SOME THICK
FOG...INCLUDING AROUND EKN.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY
ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE
GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG THROUGH 13Z MONDAY.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD TODAY.

LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS AFTERNOON...SO ANY FOG THAT
DOES FORM TONIGHT WILL BE LATE IN FORMING. BETWEEN 06Z TO 12Z
TUESDAY...WITH WEAKER WIND FLOW AT 925 MB AND COOLER TEMPERATURES
WILL HAVE SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG FORMING...MAINLY IN THE WEST
VIRGINIA RIVER VALLEYS...WITH VSBY AOB 1 MILE AND SOME CEILINGS
AROUND 2 THSD FT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: WITH THE LARGE DEW POINT DEPRESSION LATE THIS
AFTERNOON...IF ANY WIND STIRS OVERNIGHT...FOG COULD BE LESS
THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AGAIN IN RIVER VALLEY FOG EARLY
WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 250723
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM MID ATLANTIC STATES WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...TRIES TO SINK SOUTH LATE
WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE DRIER EASTERLY FLOW IS A BULLY. IT IS SHOWING THE MUGGY UNSTABLE
AIR...WHO IS THE BOSS TODAY...AND SHOVING IT EVEN FURTHER WEST.

FOR EXAMPLE...THE 925 MB DEW POINT WAS ABOUT 18C BACK AT 00Z ABOVE
CRW. THE 00Z NAM HAS IT DOWN TO 12C BY 12Z THIS MORNING...BEFORE
INCREASING BACK TO AROUND 15C.

THE UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE STILL THERE EARLY THIS MORNING...ALONG THE
EASTERN SLOPES... BUT SHOULD CONTINUE TO DECREASE IN AREAL COVERAGE
AS DRIER AIR CONTINUES TO ADVECT IN...REDUCING THE MEAN COLUMN RH.
EVEN BKW HAD A HARD TIME KEEPING A CEILING OVERNIGHT.

THE SOUTHEAST WIND FLOW AT 925 MB WAS STILL BLOWING AT 15 KNOTS AT
07Z AT RLX. FIGURING EARLY MORNING FOG RESTRICTED TO JUST SOME OF
THE RIVER VALLEYS AS TEMPERATURES ARE COOLER THAN RECENT DAWNS.

MEANWHILE...A WEAK 500 MB VORT MAXIMUM RIDING OVER THE RIDGE WAS IN
WESTERN OHIO THIS MORNING...AND SHOULD REMAIN THERE WHILE WEAKENING
TODAY.  THOUGHT WE COULD PULL THE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR CONVECTION
ASSOCIATED WITH THAT FEATURE AND ITS LINGERING MOISTURE MAXIMUM....
A BIT FURTHER WEST...AND JUST OUT OF OUR FORECAST AREA FOR
TODAY.

THE GROUND/VEGETATION SHOULD SEE SOME GOOD DRYING THIS AFTERNOON...
AS DEW POINTS DROP.

SOME PREDAWN FOG TUESDAY IN THE COOLER AIR AND LESS LOW LEVEL FLOW.
INCLUDED SOME MINIMUM TEMPERATURES 40S IN THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS
AND UPPER GREENBRIER VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE IN PLACE...CENTERED OVER THE MOUNTAINS TO START THE
SHORT TERM ON TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH INTO THE GREAT
LAKES TUESDAY...PASSING THROUGH OH/PA WEDNESDAY...AND THEN CROSSING
CWA WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MODELS IN FAIR AGREEMENT...WITH TIMING OF THE
FRONT ENTERING NW CWA LATE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND GRADUALLY
DROPPING SOUTH AND DISSIPATING WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SLOWED DOWN POPS A
TOUCH WEDNESDAY BASED ON MODEL TIMING.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS ON TUESDAY WITH LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED ECMWF FOR WEDNESDAY HIGHS...COOLING THE NW
A BIT WITH CLOUDS AND PRECIP INCOMING. BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED
CONSENSUS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS...RESULTING IN A DEGREE CHANGE HERE AND
THERE BUT NOTHING SIGNIFICANT.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CONTINUED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DRIER AIR
WEST.  THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND GETS SW DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS.  WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 2 THSD FT AGL AT TIMES FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME
LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THE WINDS AT 925 MB ON THE RLX 88D VAD STILL BLOWING AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT 0530Z.  WILL MAKE A BIG CHANGE...IN REDUCING THE AREAL
COVERAGE AND THICKEST TO THE PREDAWN AND DAWN FOG. SO THE 06Z SET OF
TAFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. STILL HAVE SOME MVFR IN FOG POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH IFR IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS
INCLUDING EKN.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECREASE...THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE COULD CAUSE MORE LOCAL VALLEY FOG THAN PREDICTED
FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE COOLER PREDAWN TEMPERATURES...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB













000
FXUS61 KRLX 250535
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN TRIES TO SINK
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CONTINUED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DRIER AIR
WEST.  THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND GETS SW DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS.  WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 2 THSD FT AGL AT TIMES FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME
LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THE WINDS AT 925 MB ON THE RLX 88D VAD STILL BLOWING AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT 0530Z.  WILL MAKE A BIG CHANGE...IN REDUCING THE AREAL
COVERAGE AND THICKEST TO THE PREDAWN AND DAWN FOG. SO THE 06Z SET OF
TAFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. STILL HAVE SOME MVFR IN FOG POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH IFR IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS
INCLUDING EKN.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECREASE...THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE COULD CAUSE MORE LOCAL VALLEY FOG THAN PREDICTED
FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE COOLER PREDAWN TEMPERATURES...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 250535
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
130 AM EDT MON AUG 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE RIDGES SOUTH FROM NEW ENGLAND WITH DRIER AIR.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY...THEN TRIES TO SINK
SOUTH WEDNESDAY INTO OUR VICINITY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W
TROF EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE
IN CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE CONTINUED EAST AND SOUTHEAST FLOW CONTINUES TO FEED DRIER AIR
WEST.  THE AMOUNT OF UPSLOPE CLOUDS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES
CONTINUE TO SHRINK IN AREAL COVERAGE...AND GETS SW DOWN THE
APPALACHIANS.  WILL STILL HOLD ONTO SOME SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS
AROUND 2 THSD FT AGL AT TIMES FOR OUR SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND
BKW.  OVER THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN RIDGES...SAY ABOVE 3500 FEET...SOME
LOWER STRATUS COULD STILL HIT THE GROUND...CAUSING THICK FOG
THROUGH 12Z MONDAY.

THE WINDS AT 925 MB ON THE RLX 88D VAD STILL BLOWING AT 15 TO 20
KNOTS AT 0530Z.  WILL MAKE A BIG CHANGE...IN REDUCING THE AREAL
COVERAGE AND THICKEST TO THE PREDAWN AND DAWN FOG. SO THE 06Z SET OF
TAFS IS MORE OPTIMISTIC. STILL HAVE SOME MVFR IN FOG POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN RIVER VALLEYS...WITH IFR IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAINS VALLEYS
INCLUDING EKN.

ONLY SCATTERED CU FIGURED AT 3 TO 5 THSD THIS AFTERNOON.  AN
ISOLATED SHOWER OR STORM POSSIBLE IN INTERIOR SOUTHEAST OHIO DURING
THE AFTERNOON.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IF WINDS IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER DECREASE...THE
COOLER TEMPERATURE COULD CAUSE MORE LOCAL VALLEY FOG THAN PREDICTED
FOR PREDAWN AND DAWN TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IN THE COOLER PREDAWN TEMPERATURES...LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 250151
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
02Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA
AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB.

AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV














000
FXUS61 KRLX 250147
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA
AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB.

AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 250147
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
943 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA
AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB.

AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY/JMV
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 242354
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA
AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB.

AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 242354
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
742 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00Z MONDAY THRU 00Z TUESDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS CENTERED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN STATES. A
MOIST EASTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW WILL LIKELY PREVAIL ON EAST FACING
SLOPES OF THE WEST VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS TIL 13Z...AFFECTING THAT AREA
AND BKW WITH MVFR CEILINGS AROUND 2000 FEET. ELSEWHERE...VFR MOSTLY
CLEAR...BUT IFR/LIFR VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT
BETWEEN 06Z AND 12Z. THIS WILL AFFECT THE MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT
BKW. EXPECT LIFR IN CRW AND EKN...IFR HTS...PKB...CKB.

AFTER 13Z VFR MOSTLY CLEAR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM WITH FOG AND LOW STRATUS TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS TONIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 08/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241959
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND BECOME
MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AN
MVFR CUMULUS DECK WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR AS IT RAISES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT SOME
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY. VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT...FORMING
FIRST AND BECOMING THE MOST DENSE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT A CUMULUS DECK AGAIN ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM WITH FOG TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241959
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
359 PM EDT SUN AUG 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH FOR THE BEGINNING OF THE WEEK.
FRONT ACROSS LOWER GREAT LAKES ON TUESDAY SINKS DOWN INTO REGION
WEDNESDAY...BEFORE WEAKENING BY THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINS IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA...SO SOME SHOWERS ARE A POSSIBILITY THIS AFTERNOON. AS
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THIS EVENING...DRIER AIR WILL PUSH INTO MOST
OF THE REGION...WITH JUST SOME MOISTURE REMAINING ALONG THE WESTERN
FRINGE OF THE FORECAST AREA. THIS MOISTURE MAY BE ENOUGH TO FIRE A
COUPLE OF SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY AFTERNOON IN THE FAR
WEST...SO ADDED SOME SMALL POPS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
QUIET WX THRU TUESDAY NIGHT COURTESY OF RIDGE AND SURFACE HIGH. UPPER
RIDGE BEGINS TO GET PINCHED BY WEDNESDAY WITH A COLD FRONT
APPROACHING SE OH LATE WHERE SOME CHANCE POPS WERE INSERTED.
BLENDED INHERITED TEMPS IN WITH LASTED CONSENSUS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH COLD FRONT WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
THURSDAY. MOST OF THE MODELS ALLOW THE FRONT TO SLIP S OF THE AREA
EARLY THURSDAY. AS SUCH HAVE SOME POPS ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF
FRONT. FRONT BECOMES RATHER DIFFUSE NEAR THE AREA ON FRIDAY AS THE
UPPER RIDGE BUILDS AGAIN INTO THE AREA THRU SATURDAY. WILL WATCH S/W TROF
EJECTING OUT OF THE PLAINS APPROACH ON SUNDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN
CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA. TEMPS WILL RUN CLOSE TO AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
A SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE STRATUS DECK WILL GRADUALLY RAISE AND BECOME
MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK THIS AFTERNOON. WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS...AN
MVFR CUMULUS DECK WILL QUICKLY BECOME VFR AS IT RAISES. A FEW
SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE
CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR WEST OF THE MOUNTAINS THIS EVENING...BUT SOME
SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST IN THE GREENBRIER
VALLEY. VALLEY AND RIVER FOG WILL BE FORMING OVERNIGHT...FORMING
FIRST AND BECOMING THE MOST DENSE IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

EXPECT A CUMULUS DECK AGAIN ON MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM WITH FOG TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE IN OVERNIGHT FOG EARLY TUESDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY









    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities