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000
FXUS61 KRLX 021020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...WHEN
PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT
IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 021020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z...WHEN
PATCHY VALLEY FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN...MAINLY IN DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG SUNDAY NIGHT
IN QUESTION.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020903 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020903 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON FOR THE BALANCE OF THE WEEKEND. A COLD
FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY AND THEN CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF
LOW PRESSURE WILL PULL THE FRONT BACK NORTH MID TO LATE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
COLD FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACH MON AND THEN CROSS MON
NT. THERE WAS SOME MODEL DISCREPANCY ON TIMING OF ARRIVAL
PRECIPITATION FROM THE W ON MON...THE NAM SUGGESTS THAT AN
INITIAL AREA OF PRECIPITATION APPROACHING IN THE MORNING MAY
BREAK UP AS IT ENTERS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

AT ANY RATE...THE LATE DAY / EVENING TIMING OF THE APPROACH OF THE
FRONT SUGGESTS ITS DYNAMICS AND ASSOCIATED 30-40 KTS OF MID LEVEL
FLOW COULD CONVERT DIURNAL HEATING TO 1 TO 2 GRAND OF CAPE FOR A
STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM THREAT...AS DEPICTED BY SPC IN
THEIR SWODY2 OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. NAM SHOWS BAND OF H2-H4
DIV NICELY LINE UP ALONG/AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. THE CAPE AND
DIURNAL TIMING IS NOT AS FAVORABLE FARTHER E. WILL ADD AN HWO
MENTION FOR MAINLY THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY.

THE FRONT BARELY GETS THROUGH THE FCST AREA MON NT BEFORE THE W-E
ORIENTED TRAILING PORTION OF IT SLOWS DOWN OR EVEN STALLS.
THEREFORE HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS S LINGERING THROUGH TUE
NT...MAINLY FOR JUST SHOWERS.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV FOR HIGHS FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE...AND BIAS
CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOWS MON NT...AGAIN FOR NO MAJOR CHANGE.
BLENDED IN A BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW BLEND FOR A SLIGHTLY
COOLER NT TUE NT WITH SOME CLEARING AND LIGHT FLOW BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT N. THE MEX SEEMED A BIT HIGH.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020759 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE:  MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS:
TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020752 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING...WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE CWA DURING THE NEAR TERM.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LESS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE SOME PUFFS OF WIND OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 60Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020752 CCA
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING...WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE CWA DURING THE NEAR TERM.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LESS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE SOME PUFFS OF WIND OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 60Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING...WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE CWA DURING THE NEAR TERM.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LESS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE SOME PUFFS OF WIND OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020605
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
205 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ANOTHER QUIET WEATHER DAY ON TAP ACROSS THE AREA. PATCHY VALLEY
FOG THIS MORNING...WILL QUICKLY BURN OFF SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE.
OTHERWISE...HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY START TO SLIDE OFF TO
THE EAST LATER TODAY...FOR SOMEWHAT WARMER TEMPERATURES...AND A
SLIGHT UPTICK IN HUMIDITY...ALTHOUGH STILL PLEASANT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR.

OVERNIGHT...SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY CLEAR AND CALM...ALTHOUGH
CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY START TO INCREASE ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AS A
COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE REGION. MODELS IN DECENT AGREEMENT WITH
FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS SOUTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH NORTHERN IL AND
NORTHWEST INDIANA BY 12Z MONDAY. PRECIPITATION SHOULD REMAIN OUT
OF THE CWA DURING THE NEAR TERM.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT...BUT WILL BE LESS LIKELY
ACROSS THE NORTH...WHERE SOME PUFFS OF WIND OUT AHEAD OF
APPROACHING FRONT WILL BE POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020527
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT SUN AUG 2 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR VALLEY FOG GENERALLY 08Z-12Z. LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
12Z WITH LIGHT SOUTH TO SSW SURFACE WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TONIGHT...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 020222
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 020222
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1022 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1020 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 08/02/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 012323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 012323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 012323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 012323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...FORECAST ON TRACK...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MAIN IMPACT THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD WILL BE RIVER VALLEY FOG LATE
TONIGHT. THINK IT WILL HAVE A BETTER CHANCE THAN LAST NIGHT
DESPITE SLIGHTLY LOWER DEWPOINTS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH PRESSURE
WILL SLIDE THROUGH TONIGHT...SO SHOULD NOT HAVE THE LIGHT WINDS OR
PASSING CLOUDS THAT KEPT FOG FROM FORMING LAST NIGHT. HAVE IFR AT
USUAL RIVER VALLEY SITES...AND ALSO INCLUDED IFR AT CKB FOR A
FEW HOURS.

FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-13Z WITH VFR EXPECTED SUNDAY. WINDS WILL
BECOME LIGHT OUT OF THE SOUTH THROUGH THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011846
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
246 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH
MIDWEEK. DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LATE MONDAY TO MONDAY NIGHT COLD FRONT EXPECTED...AND LIKE PREVIOUS
SYSTEMS LATELY...SHOULD ARRIVE WITH LITTLE FANFARE. COVERAGE OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS SHOULD BE LIMITED...THE PRIMARY FACTOR IN THE LOW
END POPS. FRONTOGENETIC FORCING JUST NOT THERE...WITH AUGUST
STARTING OUT ON THE QUIET SIDE. SPC HAS THE NORTHWESTERN PORTION OF
THE CWA IN MARGINAL...BUT WITH THE MAIN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OVER
CENTRAL QUEBEC...DYNAMICS WILL BE HARD TO COME BY. FRONT WILL SETTLE
SOUTH OF THE AREA...BUT STILL CLIPPING THE SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA
COUNTIES.

MONDAY WILL BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE SHORT AND LONG TERM PUSHING
THE UPPER 80S ONCE AGAIN...WITH THE MOUNTAINS 5 TO 15 DEGREES OFF
THE PACE DEPENDING ON ELEVATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE BRINGS THE FRONT BACK INTO THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS...AND WITH IT...THE BEST CHANCES FOR SHOWERS AND STORMS
THROUGH MID WEEK. HIGH PRESSURE PUSHES THE FRONT BACK TO THE
SOUTH...AND WILL SLOWLY DECREASE THE RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE END OF
THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL ON AVERAGE
THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH SYNOPTIC SCALE CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT HOLDING
IN PLACE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY CONTINUES THIS WEEKEND UNDER HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AND THE BEAT GOES ON. WE REMAIN DEEP ENOUGH IN NORTHWEST FLOW
ALOFT SO THAT ANY WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES THAT DROP ACROSS US
HAVE VERY LITTLE MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS WITH THEM. FOR OUR
PERIOD...WE WILL BE HAVE DOMINATING SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE. THUS...NO
RAIN. CUMULUS CLOUDS AND WINDS THIS AFTERNOON WILL QUICKLY
DECREASE THIS EVENING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER
SETTLING IN OVERHEAD TONIGHT...THERE WILL BE IDEAL CONDITIONS FOR
RADIATION RIVER AND VALLEY FOG LATER TONIGHT. THE FOG WILL
DISSIPATE QUICKLY SUNDAY MORNING AND BE REPLACED BY SUNSHINE AS
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES. THERE WILL BE A RELATIVELY LARGE DIURNAL
RANGE IN TEMPERATURES...RANGING FROM THE UPPER 50S IN MANY
LOCATIONS TONIGHT TO THE UPPER 80S SUNDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011747
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
147 PM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAY RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MONDAY...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY BEFORE DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MONDAY COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO
35 KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MONDAY NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MONTH A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MONDAY NT WERE CLOSE TO A
BIAS CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE THIS WEEKEND. VFR THIS AFTERNOON WITH SCT-BKN CU
AND GENERALLY LIGHT NORTHWEST WINDS. UNDER CLEAR SKIES AND CALM
WINDS TONIGHT...EXPECT IFR/LIFR RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM 07Z TO
13Z AT MAJOR TERMINALS EXCEPT BKW. LIFR WILL MOST LIKELY BE AT
CRW AND EKN.

AFTER 13Z...VFR...WITH SOME HIGH CLOUDS MAINLY NORTH...AND
AFTERNOON SCT CU. WINDS BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY 5 TO 10 KTS BY
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 011017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z SUNDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY
MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z SUNDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY
MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 011017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
617 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY... PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY
FOG THROUGH 13Z SATURDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS THROUGH AT LEAST 08Z SUNDAY...WHEN PATCHY VALLEY
MVFR/IFR FOG EXPECTED AGAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010710
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
310 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THIS WEEKEND UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT
CROSSES MONDAY. WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE CROSS THROUGH MIDWEEK.
TRENDING DRIER AND COOLER TOWARD THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE HANGS ON LONG ENOUGH TO COMPLETE ONE OF THE NICEST
WEEKENDS OF THE SUMMER. AN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH MAY BRING
CONVECTION LATE SUNDAY CLOSE BY FROM NW OF THE FCST AREA.
OTHERWISE THE COLD FRONT AND THE MAIN UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH
ASSOCIATED WITH IT CROSS MON...WITH THE GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MAY ARRIVE IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY BEFORE
DAWN.

THUNDERSTORMS MON COULD BE A BIT STRONG AND HEAVY GIVEN 25 TO 35
KTS MID LAYER FLOW AND APPRECIABLE LOW LEVEL PRESSURE GRADIENT-
DRIVEN MOISTURE FLUX.

THE COLD FRONT CLEARS ON THROUGH MON NT...BUT TUE MORNING WILL
FIND THE FIRST OF A COUPLE OF WAVES LOW PRESSURE LURKING OUT TO
THE W...AND HEADED EWD ALONG THE SRN EDGE OF A LARGE ERN NA L/W
TROUGH.

BLENDED IN MET/MAV BY DAY AND BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV SUN NT...NOT
MUCH CHANGE OVERALL WITH MON A BIT WARMER SE PORTIONS OF THE FCST
AREA AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. LOWS MON NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS
CORRECTED BLEND AND ACCEPTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010559
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
159 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND
UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH PRESSURE. COLD FRONT EARLY MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST PERIOD.
SOME CLOUD COVER...AND OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN/SPRINKLES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV THIS MORNING...AS A WEAK FRONT
APPROACHES THE CWA. THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL GRADUALLY WASH OUT
ACROSS THE NORTH/OHIO RIVER VICINITY TODAY...FOR ANOTHER DRY...AND
WARM SUNNY DAY AS HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL. TRENDED
TEMPERATURES SIMILAR TO FRIDAYS RECORDED HIGHS...WITH MANY
LOCATIONS TOPPING OUT IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH THE AREA LATE TONIGHT...BEFORE
WEAKENING AS IT NEARS THE CWA. THERE COULD BE A FEW SPRINKLES
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS ACROSS THE FAR NORTH...BUT OVERALL...DRY
FORECAST REMAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT EAST LATE TONIGHT...FOR ANOTHER
CALM CLEAR NIGHT ON TAP...WITH PATCHY VALLEY FOG. AS WITH PREVIOUS
NIGHTS...DEW POINT/TEMPERATURE SEPARATION SHOULD BE SUCH THAT A
WIDESPREAD FOG IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 010515
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 AM EDT SAT AUG 1 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR RIVER VALLEY FOG THROUGH 13Z. OTHERWISE...VFR
CONDITIONS WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS DURING THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG TONIGHT COULD VARY
FROM FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...

NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 010216
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1016 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
1015 PM UPDATE...STILL HAVE SOME ISOLATED SHOWERS APPROACHING NW
CWA...SO NO CHANGES TO GOING FORECAST. THESE WILL LIKELY CONTINUE
WEAKENING AS THEY HEAD TOWARD THE OHIO RIVER DUE TO LOSS OF
HEATING.

715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SAT 08/01/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 312317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 312317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 312317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
717 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...CONVECTION MOVING ACROSS OHIO CONTINUES TO
WEAKEN. HOWEVER...DID INCLUDE AN ISOLATED SHOWER ACROSS EXTREME
NW CWA AS THIS MOVES THROUGH LATER THIS EVENING...BUT THINK EVEN
THAT SHOULD STILL BE HARD TO COME BY WITH DRY AIR IN PLACE.
OTHERWISE NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL
DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE
CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH
DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT.
BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL
LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING
FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST.
SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS
OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH
PLENTY OF SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE
SIMILAR TO LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND LOWER HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD...EXCEPT POTENTIAL RIVER
VALLEY FOG AT EKN AND CRW. EKN SHOULD GET SOME DENSE FOG...WHILE
CRW WILL LIKELY REMAIN MVFR. DO HAVE A WEAK BOUNDARY MOVING
THROUGH OVERNIGHT WHICH SHOULD PROVIDE A SCATTERED MID DECK AND
SOME WINDS WHICH SHOULD LIMIT FOG ELSEWHERE. GENERALLY SURFACE WINDS
WILL BE LESS THAN 10 KTS OUT OF THE W AND NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...COULD GET A SPRINKLE ACROSS THE NORTH
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN MOUNTAIN RIVER VALLEYS EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY INTO
MONDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. COLD FRONT EARLY
MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING
OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF
THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
KEEP THE FORECAST DRY WHILE THE FLOW ALOFT TRANSITIONS FROM DRY
NORTHWESTERLY TO BROAD CYCLONIC...A PATTERN THAT WILL HOLD THROUGH
THE LONG TERM. COLD FRONT COMES IN FOR EARLY MONDAY INTO THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY AND WILL LIKELY STALL IN OUR AREA. THIS SETS THE STAGE
FOR A SOMEWHAT WETTER PATTERN HEADING INTO THE BEGINNING OF NEXT
WEEK.

THE TRANSITIONING PATTERN KEEPS THE TEMPERATURES UNDER CONTROL FOR
THE MOST PART WITH MID TO UPPER 80S FOR THE LOWLAND AREAS UNTIL THE
COOLER AIRMASS FOLLOWS AS WE HEAD INTO THE LONG TERM.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE COLD FRONT WILL LINGER OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS THROUGH MID WEEK...WITH WAVES OF LOW PRESSURE
DEVELOPING ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY WHILE THE PARENT LOW
OCCLUDES OVER CENTRAL QUEBEC. BRING POPS UP WITH THE WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT DO NOT BELIEVE WE
WILL HEAD INTO A WET PATTERN SIMILAR TO EARLY JULY. WITHIN THE
CYCLONIC FLOW...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE KEPT TO THE SOUTH...AND
WILL EXPERIENCE SOME SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES DURING THE
LONG TERM FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERHAPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ADN EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING
OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF
THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311841
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
241 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A WEAKENING AND MOSTLY DRY...IF NOT ALL DRY...COOL FRONT ROLLS
ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT IN WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. WITH
SUCH WEAK DYNAMICS...MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE OUT WEST THIS
AFTERNOON ADN EARLY EVENING WITH DIURNAL HEATING AND SOME POOLING
OF THE DEWPOINTS ALONG THE FRONT. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES
OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO ZONES...WE WILL LOSE THE HEATING AND MUCH OF
THE POOLING ALONG THE WEAKENING FRONT. THUS...WILL HAVE AN
INCREASE IN CLOUDS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH TONIGHT...BUT WILL KEEP
MENTION OF RAIN OUT OF THE FORECAST. SIGNIFICANT FOG SHOULD BE
RESTRICTED TO THE MORE PROTECTED VALLEYS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL SATURDAY WITH PLENTY OF
SUNSHINE. TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND SATURDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO
LAST NIGHT AND TODAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND LOWER
HUMIDITY ON SATURDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311811
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
211 PM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK SURFACE FRONT TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE
SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT MOSTLY DRY THIS WEEKEND. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

VFR WITH SCATTERED CU AND LIGHT WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST PROTECTED
VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...VFR SCATTERED CU WITH MAINLY LIGHT NORTHWEST
WINDS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST
PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST
PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST
PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV/SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311513
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1113 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT. SERIES OF
DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE. ONLY CHANGE WAS TO REMOVE ANY SLIGHT CHANCE OF A
SHOWER TONIGHT...PER CURRENT TRENDS AND HI RES MODELS.



PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
15Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

VFR CLEAR WITH LIGHT SURFACE WINDS THIS AFTERNOON. A WEAK AND
MOSTLY DRY COOL FRONT WILL APPROACH TONIGHT...ACCOMPANIED BY VFR
CLOUDS...AND PERHAPS A SPRINKLE IN THE NORTH. THE ONLY FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT WILL BE LOCALLY IFR FOG IN THE MOST
PROTECTED VALLEYS...AFFECTING PERAHPS EKN BETWEEN 08Z AND 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG IN THE MOUNTAINS POSSIBLE EARLY
SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...JMV/SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 311022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST
VA...WILL BURN OFF AFTER 13Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT...CREATING -SHRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VA AFTER 00Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS.

PATCHY VALLEY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY
AFTER 08Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 311022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
622 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

PATCHY MVFR/IFR FOG...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND SOUTHWEST
VA...WILL BURN OFF AFTER 13Z...FOR A RETURN OF VFR CONDITIONS WITH
LIGHT SURFACE WINDS. A WEAK FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE
TONIGHT...CREATING -SHRA ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST
VA AFTER 00Z. NOT EXPECTING ANY FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS.

PATCHY VALLEY MVFR/IFR FOG POSSIBLE AGAIN LATE TONIGHT...GENERALLY
AFTER 08Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...DEVELOPMENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS
CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H =
HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M =
MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW:
TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EDT 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
PATCHY RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310652
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 310652
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310652
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310652
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
252 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.
SERIES OF DISTURBANCES CONTINUES INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY DRIFTS FROM THE TN VALLEY EWD OR ESEWD TO THE
SRN APPALACHIANS THIS PERIOD. IN THE MEANTIME...SEVERAL UPPER
LEVEL S/W TROUGHS CROSS. THE FIRST EXITS FIRST THING SAT
MORNING...HAVING DRIED UP BY THEN. THE SECOND CROSSES OVERNIGHT
SAT NT INTO SUN MORNING. IT...TOO...WILL BE MOISTURE STARVED AND
IS NOT LIKELY TO PRODUCE ANY PRECIPITATION DESPITE THE NAM12
SOLN...PREFERRED THE GFS40.

THE THIRD S/W TROUGH WILL BENEFIT FROM LOW LEVEL INFLOW FROM THE
SW AND MAY BE ABLE TO BRING PRECIPITATION INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY SUN NT. IT SHOULD ALSO...THOUGH...DRY UP AS IT PUSHES
FARTHER ESEWD...AND A STRONGER S/W TROUGH APPROACHES FROM THE NW
TOWARD MON MORNING.

OTHER THAN SOME LIGHTNING...NONE OF THESE FEATURES ARE EXPECTED TO
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON INTERESTS IN THE FCST AREA.

BLENDED IN THE MET GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS SAT AND LOWS SAT NT...AND
THE MAV FOR HIGHS SUN. LOWS SUN NT WERE CLOSE TO A BIAS CORRECTED
BLEND. NOT MUCH CHANGE OVERALL. HAVE HIGHS SUN A COUPLE OF TICKS
HIGHER THAN FOR SAT AS H85 TEMPERATURES CLIMB FROM AROUND 16C SAT
TO 18C ON AVERAGE ON SUN.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD RELATIVELY LOW
CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING DIFFICULTY
RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES EMBEDDED IN THE
LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN WILL BECOME
DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 310546
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
146 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NEEDED TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. COLD
FRONT TO THE EAST OF THE CWA...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM
THE WEST. MUCH LOWER DEW POINTS AS OF LATE...WITH MUCH OF THE AREA
EXPERIENCING DEW POINTS IN THE UPPER 50S TO LOWER 60S. STILL
EXPECTING SOME PATCHY FOG TO DEVELOP TOWARDS MORNING IN FAVORED
RIVER VALLEYS...BUT NOTHING WIDESPREAD EXPECTED AT THIS POINT WITH
THE SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR MASS IN PLACE. ANY FOG SHOULD BURN OFF
RELATIVELY QUICKLY THIS MORNING.

OVERALL...MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON TAP...WITH OVERALL RELATIVELY LOW
HUMIDITY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. A COLD FRONT...AT 06Z LOCATED
ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST...WILL SINK SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY CREATE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS...ACROSS PARTS
OF SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHERN WV LATE TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH AN
OVERALL LACK OF DECENT MOISTURE...AND RATHER DRY AIR AT LOWER
LEVELS...ANY PRECIPITATION WILL BE LIGHT...POSSIBLY EVEN IN THE
FORM OF JUST SPRINKLES. KEPT A SLIGHT CHANCE ACROSS AFOREMENTIONED
AREAS LATE TONIGHT...AND REMOVED MENTION OF THUNDER DUE TO OVERALL
LACK OF FORCING/INSTABILITY. MAIN EFFECT WITH FRONT WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 310526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
126 AM EDT FRI JUL 31 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TODAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH
FRIDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A WEAK DISTURBANCE SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
06Z FRIDAY THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
MVFR/PATCHY IFR VALLEY FOG EXPECTED IN FAVORED RIVER VALLEYS
GENERALLY 08-12Z. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN AREA WIDE WITH LIGHT
SURFACE WINDS AFTER 12Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                             FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EDT 1HRLY       23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 310201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE RATHER LARGE THIS EVENING...AND MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS...HAVE WET
GROUND AND WARM WATER IN RIVERS SO THINK AT LEAST SOME FOG SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
AGREES WELL WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 310201
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1001 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE RATHER LARGE THIS EVENING...AND MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS...HAVE WET
GROUND AND WARM WATER IN RIVERS SO THINK AT LEAST SOME FOG SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
AGREES WELL WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 07/31/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 302322
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE RATHER LARGE THIS EVENING...AND MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS...HAVE WET
GROUND AND WARM WATER IN RIVERS SO THINK AT LEAST SOME FOG SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
AGREES WELL WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 302322
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
722 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
720 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES NEEDED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN
THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO
THIS SUMMER DAY. A MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME
DENSE VALLEY FOG DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM
DEPENDING ON HOW STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL
BOTTOM OUT IN THE 50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SOME UNCERTAINTY ON FOG FORMATION TONIGHT AS DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS
ARE RATHER LARGE THIS EVENING...AND MODELS TRY TO KEEP SOME
BOUNDARY LAYER FLOW GOING OVERNIGHT. DESPITE THIS...HAVE WET
GROUND AND WARM WATER IN RIVERS SO THINK AT LEAST SOME FOG SHOULD
BE EXPECTED. STAYED FAIRLY CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST...WHICH
AGREES WELL WITH LAMP GUIDANCE AS WELL. FOG THAT DOES FORM SHOULD
DISSIPATE QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE WITH VFR EXPECTED FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE DAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TONIGHT OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EDT 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301921
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
321 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY THROUGH FRIDAY. WEAK SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK BAROCLINIC TROUGH TO BRING LOW CHANCES FOR CONVECTION FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF CHANGES TO THE CURRENT
FORECAST FOR THAT TIME PERIOD. IT WILL SERVE TO KEEP THE
TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING TOO HIGH WITH SATURDAY HIGHS BACK DOWN
INTO THE NORMAL RANGE...AND LOWER DEWPOINTS. THREW OUT THE NAM
SOLUTION WITH THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE FOR SATURDAY NIGHT KEEPING
THE FORECAST ON THE DRY SIDE. END OF THE WEEKEND SEES TEMPERATURES
CREEP BACK UPWARDS AGAIN.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...DTC/26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...DTC/26
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...DTC/26
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301902
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERAL AGREEMENT IN THE LONG RANGE CONCERNING OVERALL SYNOPTIC
EVOLUTION...WITH AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ACROSS THE SRN STATES SHIFTING
WEST AND A PERSISTENT TROUGH BUILDING ACROSS THE EAST.
HOWEVER...THERE IS DISAGREEMENT CONCERNING HOW MUCH THE WESTERN
RIDGE WILL AMPLIFY...WHICH INTRODUCES A GOOD BIT OF UNCERTAINTY
INTO THE FORECAST.

FOR OUR AREA...THIS UNCERTAINTY WILL YIELD
RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE IN PRECIP FORECAST AS MODELS ARE HAVING
DIFFICULTY RESOLVING SPATIAL AND TEMPORAL EVOLUTION OF WAVES
EMBEDDED IN THE LARGER SCALE FLOW. REGARDLESS...THINKING THE PATTERN
WILL BECOME DISTURBED ENOUGH FOR SOME RAIN/TSTORMS THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEK.

AS FOR TEMPS...SHOULD SEE SOME BREAK IN THE HIGHER AFTERNOON
READINGS OWING TO INCREASED CLOUDS...SLIGHTLY HIGHER RAIN
CHANCES...AND OUR INCREASED DISTANCE FROM THE WESTERN RIDGE.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...DTC/26
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LOWER DEWPOINTS WILL CONTINUE TO MIX DOWN THROUGH THE LATE
AFTERNOON HOURS...PROVIDING FOR A COMFY END TO THIS SUMMER DAY. A
MAINLY CLEAR SKY WILL RULE TONIGHT WITH SOME DENSE VALLEY FOG
DEVELOPING OVERNIGHT. IT MAY TAKE A WHILE TO FORM DEPENDING ON HOW
STRONG THE BL WINDS REMAIN OVERNIGHT. TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT IN THE
50S TO LOWER 60S.

A MAGNIFICENT DAY ON TAP FOR FRIDAY WITH JUST A FEW FLAT CIRRUS.
LOOKING AT LOW TO MID 80S WITH THE COMFY AIR REMAINING IN PLACE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE WAY TO SOME DENSE RIVER
VALLEY FOG OVERNIGHT FOR KCRW/KEKN WHERE VLIFR FOG WAS CODED UP.
THINK BL WINDS WILL HOLD UP REMAINING TERMINALS AND LIMIT THEM TO
LATE MVFR FOG.

ANY FOG WILL QUICKLY ERODE BY 13Z FOR A RETURN TO VFR CONDITIONS
WITH JUST SOME FLAT DIURNAL CU.

WINDS SFC AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN OUT OF THE NW THIS AFTERNOON AROUND
10 KTS WITH SFC WINDS RELAXING TONIGHT. WINDS BACK AROUND TO MORE
WNW FOR FRIDAY WITH GENERALLY 5 TO 10 KTS AT THE SFC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM-HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND EXTENT OF FOG OVERNIGHT IN
QUESTION AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON BL WINDS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30/26/DTC
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301446
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

ADDED SOME TLC TO THE GRIDS TODAY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE
REGION. IN FACT...MANY PLACES MAY SEE THEIR DEWPOINT DIP INTO THE
50S THIS AFTN.

PERVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.

DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT CRW...BKW...AND EKN. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF SITES.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 301446
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

ADDED SOME TLC TO THE GRIDS TODAY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE
REGION. IN FACT...MANY PLACES MAY SEE THEIR DEWPOINT DIP INTO THE
50S THIS AFTN.

PERVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.

DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT CRW...BKW...AND EKN. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF SITES.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 301446
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1046 AM EDT THU JUL 30 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. MAINLY DRY THROUGH THE WEEKEND EXCEPT
FOR LOW CHANCES ACROSS THE NORTH.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1045 PM UPDATE...

ADDED SOME TLC TO THE GRIDS TODAY. LOW STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS
WILL MIX OUT BY EARLY AFTERNOON AS DRIER AIR OVERWHELMS THE
REGION. IN FACT...MANY PLACES MAY SEE THEIR DEWPOINT DIP INTO THE
50S THIS AFTN.

PERVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

COLD FRONT CROSSING THE AREA ALONG THE OH RIVER THIS MORNING WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS AHEAD OF IT. EXPECT THE FRONT TO
EXIT THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY EARLY AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...BRIEF
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE HEAVIER STORMS.

DRIER AIR FILTERS IF BEHIND THE FRONT FROM THE NORTHWEST PROVIDING
DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE REST OF THE DAY THROUGH TONIGHT. CLEARING
WILL SPREAD FROM WEST TO EAST BY MID DAY TROUGH THIS EVENING.

TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE INTO THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON...AND
INTO THE MID 60S TONIGHT. USED SUPER BLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
REALLY NOTHING HAPPENING UNDER HIGH PRESSURE...EXCEPT FOR A WEAK
SURFACE TROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL BRING A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTH
CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA. THIS WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES FROM CLIMBING
BACK TO THE 90 DEGREE MARK FOR THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DESPITE THE BROAD TROUGH ALOFT OVER THE AREA...ONLY SIGNIFICANT
WEATHER SYSTEM IS A COLD FRONT SLATED FOR THE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY
NIGHT TIME FRAME. WILL NEED TO WATCH THE OPERATIONAL MODELS TO SEE
IF THIS CREEPS IN EARLIER IN THE PERIOD. OTHERWISE...NORMAL TO
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES PREVAIL...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
OUTSIDE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
IFR/MVFR CONDITIONS ALONG WITH SHOWERS OR STORMS POSSIBLE THIS
MORNING...MAINLY AT CRW...BKW...AND EKN. THE RAINFALL ACTIVITY IS
ASSOCIATED WITH A CROSSING COLD FRONT WHICH WILL MOVE TO THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. VFR/MVFR CONDITIONS WILL
PREVAIL ACROSS REST OF SITES.

WINDS WILL TURN NORTHWEST BEHIND THE FRONT THIS MORNING SPREADING
FROM NORTHWEST TO SOUTHEAST INTO THE AFTERNOON. DRIER AIRMASS WILL
FILTER IN BEHIND THE FRONT ALLOWING CLEARING TO SPREAD FROM WEST
TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON. VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL BEHIND THE
FRONT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...TIMING AND INTENSITY SHOWERS AND STORMS THIS
MORNING MAY VARY. LOW STRATUS COULD LINGER LONGER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
RIVER VALLEY IFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...26/DTC
AVIATION...ARJ




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