000
FXUS61 KRLX 260815
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
410 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS THROUGH THE
AREA MONDAY AFTERNOON AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
500MB VORT MAX CURRENTLY DRIFTING SE OUT OF INDIANA...ACROSS EASTERN
KENTUCKY WITH SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDS AND EVEN A FEW POSSIBLE
SPRINKLES IN FAR WESTERN ZONES EARLY THIS MORNING. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE CONTINUES ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY INTO TONIGHT. WILL
START TO SEE CLOUDS AND POPS INCREASING AGAIN FROM THE WEST TONIGHT
AS A WARM FRONT APPROACHES. SLOWED DOWN BOTH CLOUDS AND POPS WITH
THE WARM FRONT A LITTLE. SOME TIMING DIFFERENCES WITH
MODELS...GFS/ECMWF ON THE FASTER SIDE...WHILE NAM WOULD INDICATE
QUITE A BIT SLOWER PROGRESSION. WITH SLOWING THINGS DOWN...HAVE
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE NW QUARTER OF CWA TONIGHT...AND HAVE
SOME PATCHY FROST IN SHELTERED VALLEYS OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH
COUNTIES. NOT THINKING WIDE SPREAD ENOUGH FOR A FROST ADVISORY...BUT
WILL ADD MENTION IN HWO FOR NOW. ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO THE
PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW FORECAST. WITH 850S WARMING...LOCATIONS LIKE
SNOWSHOE WILL LIKELY BE IN THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S FOR LOWS
TONIGHT...WHILE LOWER ELEVATIONS LIKE ELKINS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO
MID 30S.
&&
.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE MADE FOR THIS TIME FRAME WAS SLOWING
DOWN THE NORTHWARD INCREASE IN MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. DID NOT BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE POP
TO PKB UNTIL ABOUT 22Z...AND NOT REACHING TOWARD CKB UNTIL NEAR OUR
LATE SUNSET MONDAY. WAS STILL FASTER THAN THE 00Z NAM...WHICH WAS
THE SLOWEST.
STILL NOT THE BEST DYNAMICS ALONG THIS FRONT. BUT IN RESPECT OF THE
BAROCLINIC/MOISTURE GRADIENT...WILL KEEP POPS PEAKING IN THAT 30-40
PERCENT RANGE...HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS GUIDANCE.
DEVELOPING 500 MB RIDGE TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY. BUT AS HEIGHTS
RISE...A WEAKNESS IS INDICATED IN OUR VICINITY TUESDAY AFTERNOON OR
TUESDAY EVENING. DIURNAL INSTABILITY WITH THE WEAK 500 MB TROF
COULD CAUSE SOME CONVECTION...THINKING A BIT HIGHER OVER THE
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
850 MB TEMPERATURES INCREASE TO AROUND PLUS 16C BY WEDNESDAY.
WEDNESDAY COULD BE THE START OF OUR FIRST HEAT WAVE...IF WE DO NOT
GET MUCH RAIN WITH THE WARM FRONT...AND WE CAN DRY OUT THE GROUND A
BIT. CURRENTLY HOLDING MAX TEMPERATURES JUST BELOW 90 DEGS
WEDNESDAY IN THE USUAL WARM SPOTS.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED IDEA OF PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...KEEPING IT IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW MVFR/IFR FOG SATURDAY
MORNING TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING THROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT N/NW FLOW LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO CALM AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/26/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M L L L M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 260522
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EDT SUN MAY 26 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1 AM UPDATE... ADDED SOME SPRINKLES TO EXTREME WESTERN CWA PER
LIGHT RADAR RETURNS THERE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOFT
TO KEEP HIGHER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.
MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING.
GFS IS SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING LESS
SPREAD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT INCLUDE THE GFS.
MODEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
CONTINUED IDEA OF PERSISTENCE FORECAST FOR FOG EARLY THIS
MORNING...KEEPING IT IN LOCATIONS THAT SAW MVFR/IFR FOG SATURDAY
MORNING TOO. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED TODAY INTO TONIGHT WITH SOME
MID LEVEL CLOUDS WORKING THROUGH ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH. CALM
WINDS OVERNIGHT WILL GIVE WAY TO LIGHT N/NW FLOW LATE THIS MORNING
THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...BEFORE RETURNING TO CALM AFTER SUNSET
TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/26/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M L L L M H H H H H
AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 260115
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
912 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
9 PM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOFT
TO KEEP HIGHER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.
MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING.
GFS IS SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING LESS
SPREAD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT INCLUDE THE GFS.
MODEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
01Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS HIGH END VFR CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH THIS PERIOD. THERE WILL BE EARLY MORNING PATCHY IFR FOG FOR
CKB AND EKN WHERE CLOUDS WILL BE THINNEST...LIFTING BY 14Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/26/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M L L L L L L H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L M H
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 252333
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOFT
TO KEEP HIGHER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.
MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING.
GFS IS SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING LESS
SPREAD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT INCLUDE THE GFS.
MODEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS HIGH END VFR CLOUDS MAINLY IN THE
SOUTH THIS PERIOD.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF EARLY MORNING FOG MAY
VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SUN 05/26/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M L L L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M L L L
AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 252009
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
405 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFTS
THROUGH THE AREA MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING
HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOFT
TO KEEP HIGHER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.
MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING A WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTHWARD ACROSS THE AREA MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. SOME DISAGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MODELS ON TIMING.
GFS IS SLOWEST OF THE MODELS...WITH THE OTHER MODELS SHOWING LESS
SPREAD. WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS...BUT NOT INCLUDE THE GFS.
MODEL DYNAMICS ARE NOT IMPRESSIVE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...WITH
BETTER DYNAMICS NORTHWEST OF THE FORECAST AREA. THEREFORE...WILL
KEEP POPS ON THE LOWER SIDE.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTERN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG DISSIPATION MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251906
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
249 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1100 AM UPDATE...
MUCH OF MTNS DIPPED BELOW FRZ EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE ADJ N LOWLAND CO. PESKY STRATUS KEPT MTN VALLEYS FROM REALIZING
FULL POTENTIAL. COLDEST SAW WAS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE WITH 24F. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 32 TO 36F OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS. 35 TO 40F ONCE TO I64 AND NE
KY...WITH MORE DEW THAN ANYTHING OBSERVED...WITH SOME FROST SEEN
ON THE ROOFS AND ELEVATED SFCS. EVEN HAD SOME ON THE MAPLE LEAVES
AT THE OFFICE WHERE 35F WAS OBSERVED. 2 RECORDS WERE SET...PKB AND
BKW WITH HTS TYING THEIRS.
AS FOR TDY...SHOULD SEE FLAT STRATOCU ACROSS THE N MTNS TDY AND
EXTREME N LOWLANDS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTN. IMPRESSIVE
UPR LOW ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP REGION IN NW FLOW SFC
AND ALOFT TDY. WILL LOOK UPSTREAM IN W OH VALLEY FOR DEBRIS CLDS
TO SPILL IN FROM DECAYING COMPLEX OVER UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY GRIDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA THIS AFTN FOR MORE IN THE WAY
OF MID/HI CLDS FROM THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...INHERITED TEMPS LOOK
GOOD TO GO. WILL BE FIGURING OUT FROST POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS N LOWLANDS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHILLY MORNING ON GOING...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
PARTS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES RIDE OUT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
IMPACTS IN METRO AREAS LIKE CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY HOW TEMPS ARE DOING IN THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS WHERE NO
MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF THE
CWA. FARTHER NE...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
MAV/MET CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BLENDED IN THE CONSALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE MAV/MET ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY. FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.
THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST. BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHORTWAVE MOVING THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TUES NIGHT AND ASSOCIATED
SURFACE LOW PUSHING NORTH INTO CANADA EXTENDS A WEAK BOUNDARY FROM
SE OHIO THROUGH CENTRAL WV TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WED AM...HELD POPS
OVERNIGHT TUES INTO WEDS AFTERNOON WITH BOUNDARY EXITING TO THE
NORTH AND SW FLOW FROM HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER WEST ATLANTIC
ENHANCING UPSLOPE OVER EASTRN MTNS...WITH MOISTURE ADV FROM SW FLOW
AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE HIGH ACROSS MTN ON THURSDAY...INCREASED
POPS SLIGHTLY FROM THURS AFT INTO THURS EVENING...MORE OF THE SAME
FOR FRI AFT AND EVE OVER THE EASTERN COUNTIES...MODELS IN GENERAL
AGREEMENT OF STRENGTH AND COVERAGE OF FRONT APPROACHING NEXT
WEEKEND...WITH THE GFS MORE PROGRESSIVE THAN THE EURO BY THE END OF
THE PERIOD BY ABOUT 12-18HRS...WENT WITH A MIX OF THE TWO OVERNIGHT
SAT INTO SUN.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG DISSIPATION MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...JM
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251857
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
257 PM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAIN IN CHARGE THROUGH SUNDAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST
THROUGH AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS
WAKE...INCREASING HEAT AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
ELECTED TO EXPAND FROST ADV TO OH RVR ACROSS N LOWLANDS FOR
TONIGHT. DWPTS CURRENTLY RUNNING 34 TO 35F UP THERE. WITH GUIDANCE
SHOWING PKB AND CKB IN THE MID 30S...FEEL GOOD ABOUT OUTLYING
AREAS FOR FROST ESPECIALLY CONSIDERING OUT RURAL MANY OF THOSE CO
ARE AND ARE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS FOR THE AREA. MID/HI CLDS WILL CONT
TO AFFECT NE KY/S WV/SW VA TONIGHT WITH DWPTS SAFELY OUT OF FROST
ZONE ATTM. SOMEWHAT CONCERNED REGARDING N EXTENT OF CIRRUS
UPSTREAM BUT MDLS INDICATE THIS THINNING OUT AS IT APPROACHES SE
OH AND N WV. MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP BLO FRZ TONIGHT BUT SOME WAA ALOF
TO KEEP HIGER UP ABV FRZ...HENCE NO UPGRADE TO FROST ADV FOR
RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS. WILL MENTION IN ADV MTN VALLEYS MAY DIP
BLO FRZ. WILL PROBABLY ALSO SEE SOME RVR FG WHERE CLDS STAY OUT.
MORE OF SAME FOR TOMORROW WITH MID/HI CLDS ACROSS GENERALLY SAME
AREAS AS TDY. MDLS ARE TIGHTLY CLUSTERED FOR HIGHS TOMORROW WHICH
IS IN REALLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH INHERITED NUMBERS FROM PREV
SHIFT...THUS NO CHANGE NEEDED.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY. FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.
THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST. BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MID/HI CLDS STREAMING IN ACROSS MAINLY S ZONES THRU TONIGHT IN NW
FLOW ALOFT. SFC HIGH ALLOWS FOR DECOUPLING TONIGHT WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO ANOTHER NIGHT OF IFR/LIFR RVR FG N OF WHERE CLDS ARE. HAVE
KCKB/KEKN WITH DENSE FG OVERNIGHT AND KPKB IFR. DID SNEAK SOME
MVFR VSBY FOR KCRW.
VFR CONDITIONS TOMORROW WITH MORE MID/HI CLDS GENERALLY IN SAME
LOCATIONS AS TDY.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG FORMATION IN
QUESTION ACROSS THE NORTH.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ011-019-020-
028>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/JM
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251540
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1140 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1100 AM UPDATE...
MUCH OF MTNS DIPPED BELOW FRZ EARLY THIS MORNING ALONG WITH SOME OF
THE ADJ N LOWLAND CO. PESKY STRATUS KEPT MTN VALLEYS FROM REALIZING
FULL POTENTIAL. COLDEST SAW WAS ON THE HIGHEST RIDGES...IE
SNOWSHOE WITH 24F. ELSEWHERE...GENERALLY 32 TO 36F OBSERVED ACROSS
MUCH OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS. 35 TO 40F ONCE TO I64 AND NE
KY...WITH MORE DEW THAN ANYTHING OBSERVED...WITH SOME FROST SEEN
ON THE ROOFS AND ELEVATED SFCS. EVEN HAD SOME ON THE MAPLE LEAVES
AT THE OFFICE WHERE 35F WAS OBSERVED. 2 RECORDS WERE SET...PKB AND
BKW WITH HTS TYING THEIRS.
AS FOR TDY...SHOULD SEE FLAT STRATOCU ACROSS THE N MTNS TDY AND
EXTREME N LOWLANDS BEFORE DISSIPATING LATER THIS AFTN. IMPRESSIVE
UPR LOW ALONG NEW ENGLAND COAST WILL KEEP REGION IN NW FLOW SFC
AND ALOFT TDY. WILL LOOK UPSTREAM IN W OH VALLEY FOR DEBRIS CLDS
TO SPILL IN FROM DECAYING COMPLEX OVER UPR MS VALLEY. HAVE BUMPED
UP SKY GRIDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SW VA THIS AFTN FOR MORE IN THE WAY
OF MID/HI CLDS FROM THIS FEATURE. OTHERWISE...INHERITED TEMPS LOOK
GOOD TO GO. WILL BE FIGURING OUT FROST POTENTIAL NEXT FEW HRS
ACROSS N LOWLANDS TONIGHT.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A CHILLY MORNING ON GOING...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
PARTS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES RIDE OUT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
IMPACTS IN METRO AREAS LIKE CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY HOW TEMPS ARE DOING IN THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS WHERE NO
MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF THE
CWA. FARTHER NE...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
MAV/MET CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BLENDED IN THE CONSALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE MAV/MET ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY. FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.
THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST. BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /16Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG DISSIPATION MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 251057
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHILLY MORNING ON GOING...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
PARTS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES RIDE OUT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
IMPACTS IN METRO AREAS LIKE CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY HOW TEMPS ARE DOING IN THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS WHERE NO
MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF THE
CWA. FARTHER NE...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
MAV/MET CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BLENDED IN THE CONSALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE MAV/MET ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY. FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.
THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST. BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY/CEILINGS EARLY THIS MORNING SHOULD
QUICKLY DISSIPATE AND RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG DISSIPATION MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY L L H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-
047.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250837
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CHARGE TODAY. WARM FRONT LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH
AREA LATE MONDAY INTO EARLY TUESDAY. IN ITS WAKE...INCREASING HEAT
AND HUMIDITY TUESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A CHILLY MORNING ON GOING...WITH BELOW FREEZING TEMPERATURES IN
NORTHERN WV MOUNTAINS...AND TEMPERATURES COOL ENOUGH FOR FROST IN
PARTS OF THE LOWER TERRAIN. WILL LET THE CURRENT FROST/FREEZE
HEADLINES RIDE OUT. ALTHOUGH NOT LIKELY TO GET COLD ENOUGH FOR ANY
IMPACTS IN METRO AREAS LIKE CHARLESTON AND HUNTINGTON...ITS TOUGH TO
SAY HOW TEMPS ARE DOING IN THE OUTLYING HOLLOWS WHERE NO
MEASUREMENTS ARE AVAILABLE.
WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL THROUGH TONIGHT...EXPECTING
DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. WITH A COUPLE RIPPLES
IN THE NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...WILL SEE SOME CLOUDS THIS
AFTERNOON...WITH THICKER CLOUDS TONIGHT ACROSS THE SW QUARTER OF THE
CWA. FARTHER NE...SHOULD BE A FAIRLY CLEAR NIGHT...ALLOWING FOR
ANOTHER FROST ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES.
MAV/MET CONTINUE TO HAVE SOME DIFFERENCES IN TEMPS TODAY AND
TONIGHT. BLENDED IN THE CONSALL GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS AND LOWS...WHICH
IS BETWEEN THE MAV/MET ALTHOUGH CLOSER TO THE WARMER MET.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
STILL FEEL UNCERTAIN/LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE AREAL COVERAGE...AND THUS
THE POP...FOR THE WARM FRONT FOR MEMORIAL DAY INTO TUESDAY. THE 00Z
NAM AND GFS STILL NOT VERY AGGRESSIVE WITH SHOWERS. THE ECMWF WAS
TRENDING IN THAT DIRECTION. AT LEAST OUR TIMING HAS NOT CHANGED
MUCH IN THE PAST 24 HOURS.
THE SATURDAY NIGHT DISTURBANCE ALOFT SHOULD BE EXITING ON SUNDAY
MORNING...KEEPING NORTHERN COUNTIES ALMOST CLOUDLESS ON SUNDAY.
HIGH AND MID CLOUDS MAY START INCREASING AGAIN ACROSS THE SOUTH LATE
IN THE DAY. FOR THE 3RD NIGHT...DID MENTION SOME FROST OVERNIGHT
SUNDAY NIGHT/DAWN MONDAY FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.
GENERALLY STAYED HIGHER THAN 00Z MOS POPS FROM BOTH THE NAM AND GFS
FOR MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...BUT STILL MOSTLY 30 AND 40 PERCENT WITH
THE WARM FRONTAL ACTION.
THINKING THE FRONT ITSELF WOULD STILL BE IN OUR CWA AT DAWN
TUESDAY...BEFORE LIFTING NORTH TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING. STILL NOT
BE BEST LOW LEVEL INFLOW FOR US...BETTER TO OUR WEST IN THE
MIDWEST. BUT DO REMNANTS OF THOSE COMPLEXES...STILL SURVIVE...AS
THEY MOVE ESE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
WARM FRONT PASSAGE WILL OPEN THE DOOR TO SUMMER CONDITIONS FOR
MIDWEEK. THE CURRENT FRESH AIR WILL BE JUST A MEMORY.
&&
.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS SOME MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN EKN...AND
COULD ALSO GET SOME MVFR/IFR VISIBILITY THERE AND CKB/PKB BEFORE THE
SUN COMES UP. SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/25/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-
047.
FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250509
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
109 AM EDT SAT MAY 25 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY
TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
9 PM UPDATE. STILL GOING WITH A FROST SCENARIO FOR THE LOW LANDS
UNDER A FROST ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOW IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ON A DECREASING NORTH WIND. WHILE THE MAJOR CITIES
MAY ESCAPE FROST...THE OUTLYING AREAS AND FAVORED LOW SPOTS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOME FROST. WILL MAKE NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES
NOR CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT
GIVEN AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE
RECOVERING THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN
32 TO 40F FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO
TRY TO GO CALM. ALL OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING
FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS
HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT
INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING
AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST. HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE
ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO
EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F
TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS
OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE LLVL MOISTURE VS
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS LIFTING AND SCT
THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS BY 06Z. NAM
KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT ALL. SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT
IN H5 CHARTS...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OH...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KY. REMOVED ANY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED OVER WV. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
INFLUENCE OVER WV FOR A DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD. ONE EXCEPTION IS SOME MVFR CEILINGS CURRENTLY IN
EKN...AND COULD ALSO GET SOME MVFR VISIBILITY THERE BEFORE THE SUN
COMES UP. EKN SHOULD RETURN TO VFR BY 13Z-14Z. VFR CU FIELD WILL
DEVELOP TODAY...GENERALLY 6-9KFT. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGS
CLOUDS TO THE SOUTH TONIGHT...BUT AGAIN REMAINING VFR.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AT EKN MAY VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/25/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ035>038-046-
047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250237
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY
TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9 PM UPDATE. STILL GOING WITH A FROST SCENARIO FOR THE LOW LANDS
UNDER A FROST ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOW IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ON A DECREASING NORTH WIND. WHILE THE MAJOR CITIES
MAY ESCAPE FROST...THE OUTLYING AREAS AND FAVORED LOW SPOTS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOME FROST. WILL MAKE NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES
NOR CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT
GIVEN AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE
RECOVERING THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN
32 TO 40F FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO
TRY TO GO CALM. ALL OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING
FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS
HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT
INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING
AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST. HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE
ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO
EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F
TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS
OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE LLVL MOISTURE VS
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS LIFTING AND SCT
THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS BY 06Z. NAM
KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT ALL. SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT
IN H5 CHARTS...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OH...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KY. REMOVED ANY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED OVER WV. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
INFLUENCE OVER WV FOR A DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HIGH ELEVATION MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/25/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 250107
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
901 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY
TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
9 PM UPDATE. STILL GOING WITH A FROST SCENARIO FOR THE LOW LANDS
UNDER A FROST ADVISORY. DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE NORTH ARE NOW IN THE
LOW TO MID 30S ON A DECREASING NORTH WIND. WHILE THE MAJOR CITIES
MAY ESCAPE FROST...THE OUTLYING AREAS AND FAVORED LOW SPOTS ARE
INCREASINGLY LIKELY FOR SOME FROST. WILL MAKE NO CHANGE TO HEADLINES
NOR CURRENT FORECAST.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT
GIVEN AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE
RECOVERING THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN
32 TO 40F FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO
TRY TO GO CALM. ALL OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING
FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS
HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT
INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING
AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST. HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE
ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO
EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F
TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS
OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE LLVL MOISTURE VS
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS LIFTING AND SCT
THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS BY 06Z. NAM
KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT ALL. SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT
IN H5 CHARTS...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OH...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KY. REMOVED ANY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED OVER WV. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
INFLUENCE OVER WV FOR A DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /01Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HIGH ELEVATION MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/25/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 242353
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY
TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT
GIVEN AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE
RECOVERING THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN
32 TO 40F FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO
TRY TO GO CALM. ALL OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING
FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS
HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT
INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING
AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST. HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE
ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO
EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F
TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS
OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE LLVL MOISTURE VS
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS LIFTING AND SCT
THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS BY 06Z. NAM
KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT ALL. SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT
IN H5 CHARTS...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OH...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KY. REMOVED ANY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED OVER WV. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
INFLUENCE OVER WV FOR A DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
EXCEPT FOR SOME NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA HIGH ELEVATION MVFR CLOUDS
OVERNIGHT...EXPECT VFR MOSTLY CLEAR THRU THE PERIOD...AS HIGH
PRESSURE SETTLES OVER THE REGION.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE SAT 05/25/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H
AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 242023
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
423 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT LIFT NORTH INTO THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEST VIRGINIA EARLY
TUESDAY. A WARMING TREND EXPECTED MEMORIAL DAY THROUGH NEXT WEEK.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT
GIVEN AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE
RECOVERING THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN
32 TO 40F FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS
OVERNIGHT AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO
TRY TO GO CALM. ALL OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING
FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS
HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT
INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO
ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING
AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST. HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE
ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO
EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F
TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS
OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE
N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE LLVL MOISTURE VS
RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS LIFTING AND SCT
THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS BY 06Z. NAM
KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT ALL. SO
WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS LATE
TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MADE MODIFICATIONS TO THE SHORT TERM FORECAST AS FOLLOWS:
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL THROUGH THE WEEKEND...KEEPING DRY
CONDITIONS AREAWIDE. MODELS SHOW A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EVIDENT
IN H5 CHARTS...UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT...MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN
OH...SOUTHEAST INTO NORTHWEST KY. REMOVED ANY POPS FOR THE WEEKEND
AS MOISTURE LOOKS VERY LIMITED OVER WV. IN FACT...THERE COULD BE
SOME CLEARING SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING...KEEPING
TEMPERATURES AT OR JUST BELOW FREEZING OVER POCAHONTAS AND
RANDOLPH COUNTIES. INCLUDED PATCHY FROST OVER NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES KEEPING
INFLUENCE OVER WV FOR A DRY SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.
MINOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD...PERHAPS A
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER CLOSER TO THE COOLER MET.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ANOTHER SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT PASSES ACROSS
SOUTHEAST OH AND WV MONDAY AND TUESDAY. AT THE SAME TIME...A WARM
FRONT LIFTS NORTH INTO SOUTHERN OH...ACROSS WV AND VA ORIENTED
WEST TO EAST BY 12Z TUESDAY. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL BE CAPABLE TO
PRODUCE SHOWERS AND STORMS LATE MONDAY INTO TUESDAY AS THE WARM
FRONT MOVES NORTH OF THE AREA BY EARLY WEDNESDAY. INCREASED POPS
TO CHANCE INCLUDING THUNDER IN WEATHER GRIDS ACCORDINGLY.
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL BY EARLY WEDNESDAY PROVIDING DRY
WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK.
TWEAKED COUPLE OF DEGREES DOWN FROM HPC GUIDANCE IN THE EXTENDED
PERIODS.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E BY THIS EVE.
EXCEPTION BEING N LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY N MTNS WHERE MVFR
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEKN WITH SOME BKN MVFR
BASES AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN AFTER 09Z WITH
SLACKENING WINDS THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF SUN. NW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. MAY SEE SOME FG HUG WARMER RVRS WHICH MAY AFFECT RVR
TERMINALS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY ATTM WITH BL WINDS HANGING ONTO A
BIT OF A PUFF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL TOMORROW WITH JUST
SOME PASSING MID CLDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. STRATUS
MAY NOT REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS AS FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241955
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
355 PM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
CHILLY HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM
FRONT IN LOWER OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY
AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
VERY TOUGH FCST TONIGHT REGARDING FROST/FREEZE POTENTIAL. DWPTS
CURRENTLY STRADDLING THE MARGINAL THRESHOLD FOR FROST TONIGHT GIVEN
AFTN MIXING. NOT SURE IF THESE GO LWR NEXT FEW HRS BEFORE RECOVERING
THIS EVE. GUIDANCE FOR METRO AREAS IN THE LOWLANDS RUN 32 TO 40F
FROM KHTS TO KCRW. H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS OVERNIGHT AS SFC
HIGH BUILDS IN TO ALLOW WINDS AT THE GROUND TO TRY TO GO CALM. ALL
OF THIS COMPLICATES MATTERS FOR EXPANDING FROST ADV. HOWEVER...GIVEN
TIME OF YEAR AND FACT THAT MOST FOLKS HAVE SOME OF THEIR VEGGIES IN
THE GROUND ALONG WITH ANNUAL PLANT INVESTMENTS...FELT PRUDENT TO
LEAN A LITTLE LIBERAL AND EXPAND TO ENCOMPASS REST OF CWA SAVE FOR S
COAL FIELDS TO SW VA. OUTLYING AREAS WILL SEE BEST SHOT OF FROST.
HEADLINE SHOULD GARNER MORE ATTENTION FOR FOLKS TO TAKE PRECAUTIONS
TO BE ON SAFE SIDE. ALSO EXPANDED FRZ WARNING TO RALEIGH BASED ON
GUIDANCE RANGING FROM 28F TO 33F. THEY WILL HAVE GET UNDER INVERSION
THOUGH GIVEN H925 WINDS OFF MDLS OVERNIGHT. OTHER CONCERN IS STRATUS
OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE N. NAM HAS BEEN WAY TOO FAST IN ERADICATING THE
LLVL MOISTURE VS RUC WHICH HAS BEEN PRETTY STEADY. RUC SHOWS CLDS
LIFTING AND SCT THIS EVE ACROSS THE N BEFORE REDEVELOPING IN N MTNS
BY 06Z. NAM KEEPS ENTIRE COLUMN DRY BUT HAS NOT HANDLED TDY WELL AT
ALL. SO WILL LEAN TOWARD RUC AND REDEVELOP SOME STRATUS IN N MTNS
LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY KEEP TEMPS UP TONIGHT ESPECIALLY IN
VALLEYS...BUT STILL FEEL AOB FRZ TEMPS WILL BE REALIZED.
UPR TROF AXIS SHIFTS TO E COAST ON SAT WITH SOME RECOVERY IN TEMPS
COMPARED TO TDY. INHERITED TEMPS LOOKED GOOD AND ONLY NEEDED
TWEAKING SOME...MAINLY ACROSS THE N.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.
ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.
WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM. HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /20Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
STRATOCU SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE FROM W TO E BY THIS EVE.
EXCEPTIONG BEING N LOWLANDS AND ESPECIALLY N MTNS WHERE MVFR
STRATUS MAY REDEVELOP AFTER 06Z. HAVE KEKN WITH SOME BKN MVFR
BASES AS A RESULT. OTHERWISE SFC HIGH WILL BUILD IN AFTER 09Z WITH
SLACKENING WINDS THIS EVE WITH LOSS OF SUN. NW FLOW ALOFT TONIGHT
AND TOMORROW. MAY SEE SOME FG HUG WARMER RVRS WHICH MAY AFFECT RVR
TERMINALS. HAVE SOME MVFR VSBY ATTM WITH BL WINDS HANGING ONTO A
BIT OF A PUFF. VFR CONDITIONS RETURN FOR ALL TOMORROW WITH JUST
SOME PASSING MID CLDS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF FG OVERNIGHT IN QUESTION. STRATUS
MAY NOT REDEVELOP ACROSS THE MTNS AS FCST.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M
AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
013>020-026>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ035>038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076-083>087.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR KYZ101>103-
105.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241508
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1108 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR TURNS DRIER AND TODAY PROGRESSES. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT IN LOWER
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STRATOCU HANGING TOUGH ATTM ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA...WITH AREAS
ALONG AND E OF I79 CORRIDOR MAINLY OVC. BUMPED POPS UP TO LKLY FOR
ANOTHER HR OR TWO ACROSS N MTNS FOR SOME SHRA. SNOWSHOE HANGING
ARND 34F...HOWEVER...MOISTURE DEPTH ONLY REACHES UP TO ABOUT -3F
SO KEPT THINGS LIQUID. TRIED TO DELAY SCOURING OUT OF LLVL
MOISTURE PER RUC TRENDS...PRIMARILY ACROSS THE MTNS. SHOULD SEE
MORE STREAKY NATURE TO FLAT STRATOCU ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH MORE
SUNSHINE BEING OBSERVED.
KNOCKED TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES FOR THIS AFTN PER LATEST
TRENDS AND LAMP GUIDANCE ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN.
WILL BE FIGURING OUT IF FROST ADV NEEDS EXPANDING FOR AFTN
PACKAGE. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN OVER NIGHT ALLOWING WINDS AT SFC TO GO
CALM...BUT H925 WINDS STAY UP ARND 20 KTS. ALSO OF CONCERN IS
STRATOCU TRYING TO REDEVELOP ACROSS N MTNS AND ADJ LOWLANDS
TONIGHT PER RUC AND TO A LESSER DEGREE HI RES WRF MDLS. NAM KEEPS
ENTIRE COLUMN DRY.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME...AT 08Z IT WAS
STRETCHING FROM CLARKSBURG SOUTH TO AROUND THE WV/VA/KY
INTERSECTION. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP WITH MIXING TODAY. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING INTO
THE UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY
CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE
MOISTURE CONTINUES EAST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD
OVER LAKE MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAV/MET FAIRLY CLOSE...AND SETTLED GENERALLY BETWEEN
THE TWO.
THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. MAV A BIT
COOLER THAN THE MET...AND AGAIN SETTLED IN BETWEEN. THIS GIVES
AROUND...TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO
OPTED FOR A FREEZE WARNING THERE. A BIT HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE
FROST MAY FORM DUE TO THE WARM...WET GROUND...CONTINUED BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...AND RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT TO BOOT. DECIDED ON A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH CONTINUED
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING
COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...THINKING
IT WILL REMAIN MIXY ENOUGH TO NIX ANY FROST FORMATION EVEN AT 34-36
DEGREES. AT ANY RATE...CAMPERS CELEBRATING THE UNOFFICIAL START OF
SUMMER...OR THOSE WITH EARLY MORNING SOCCER OR BASEBALL WILL WAKE UP
TO A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.
ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.
WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM. HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW
MVFR TO IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY OUT OF THE N/NW...DECREASING SOME AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT.
DRY AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG CHANCES AT BAY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT...AND WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY DENSE FOG AWAY. WITH THAT SAID...VERY CHILLY
AIR OVER RELATIVE WARM WATER IN THE RIVERS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M H M H H H H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
019-020-028>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ037-038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
EQUIPMENT...
000
FXUS61 KRLX 241051
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
651 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR TURNS DRIER AND TODAY PROGRESSES. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT IN LOWER
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME...AT 08Z IT WAS
STRETCHING FROM CLARKSBURG SOUTH TO AROUND THE WV/VA/KY
INTERSECTION. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP WITH MIXING TODAY. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES EAST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAV/MET FAIRLY CLOSE...AND SETTLED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE
TWO.
THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. MAV A BIT
COOLER THAN THE MET...AND AGAIN SETTLED IN BETWEEN. THIS GIVES
AROUND...TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO
OPTED FOR A FREEZE WARNING THERE. A BIT HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE
FROST MAY FORM DUE TO THE WARM...WET GROUND...CONTINUED BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...AND RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT TO BOOT. DECIDED ON A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH CONTINUED
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING
COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...THINKING
IT WILL REMAIN MIXY ENOUGH TO NIX ANY FROST FORMATION EVEN AT 34-36
DEGREES. AT ANY RATE...CAMPERS CELEBRATING THE UNOFFICIAL START OF
SUMMER...OR THOSE WITH EARLY MORNING SOCCER OR BASEBALL WILL WAKE UP
TO A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.
ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.
WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM. HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
FOR THE MOST PART SHOWERS HAVE ENDED ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA...WITH MVFR CEILINGS REMAINING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND LOW
MVFR TO IFR IN THE MOUNTAINS. CEILINGS SHOULD GRADUALLY IMPROVE TO
VFR FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY. BREEZY TO GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE
TODAY OUT OF THE N/NW...DECREASING SOME AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT.
DRY AIR FILTERING IN SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD FOG CHANCES AT BAY
ACROSS THE LOWLANDS TONIGHT...AND WINDS IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD ALSO KEEP ANY DENSE FOG AWAY. WITH THAT SAID...VERY CHILLY
AIR OVER RELATIVE WARM WATER IN THE RIVERS COULD PRODUCE SOME
LOCALIZED MVFR FOG BY EARLY SATURDAY MORNING IN RIVER VALLEYS.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M H M M H H H H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H M L H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX 88D REMAINS DOWN. AWAITING NEW PARTS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
019-020-028>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ037-038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
EQUIPMENT...KTB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240841
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
440 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
MUCH COOLER AIR TURNS DRIER AND TODAY PROGRESSES. CHILLY HIGH
PRESSURE TAKES CHARGE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. WARM FRONT IN LOWER
OHIO VALLEY GRADUALLY SHIFTS NE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FINAL COLD FRONT PUSHING ACROSS CWA AT THIS TIME...AT 08Z IT WAS
STRETCHING FROM CLARKSBURG SOUTH TO AROUND THE WV/VA/KY
INTERSECTION. STILL SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS ALONG AND JUST BEHIND
THE FRONT...WHICH SHOULD SUBSIDE SOME EARLY THIS MORNING BEFORE
PICKING BACK UP WITH MIXING TODAY. DEWPOINTS ALSO DROPPING INTO THE
UPPER 30S BEHIND THE FRONT...AND EXPECT SKIES TO GRADUALLY CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AS THE MOISTURE
CONTINUES EAST AND COOL HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO BUILD OVER LAKE
MICHIGAN. HIGHS TODAY WILL BE 10-15 DEGREES COOLER THAN
YESTERDAY...MAV/MET FAIRLY CLOSE...AND SETTLED GENERALLY BETWEEN THE
TWO.
THE COOL HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER FORECAST AREA TONIGHT...WITH
AN UNSEASONABLY CHILLY START TO THE MEMORIAL DAY WEEKEND. MAV A BIT
COOLER THAN THE MET...AND AGAIN SETTLED IN BETWEEN. THIS GIVES
AROUND...TO JUST BELOW FREEZING FOR THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...SO
OPTED FOR A FREEZE WARNING THERE. A BIT HARDER TO FIGURE OUT WHERE
FROST MAY FORM DUE TO THE WARM...WET GROUND...CONTINUED BREEZE
OVERNIGHT...AND RELATIVELY SHORT NIGHT TO BOOT. DECIDED ON A FROST
ADVISORY ACROSS NORTHERN TWO TIERS OF COUNTIES...WITH CONTINUED
MENTION IN HWO FOR THE REST OF THE CWA. DESPITE TEMPERATURES BEING
COLD ENOUGH IN PARTS OF THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES...THINKING
IT WILL REMAIN MIXY ENOUGH TO NIX ANY FROST FORMATION EVEN AT 34-36
DEGREES. AT ANY RATE...CAMPERS CELEBRATING THE UNOFFICIAL START OF
SUMMER...OR THOSE WITH EARLY MORNING SOCCER OR BASEBALL WILL WAKE UP
TO A CHILLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MOST NOTABLE CHANGES MADE TOWARD MEMORIAL DAY. TIMING THE EVENTUAL
NORTHEAST MOVEMENT AS A WARM FRONT...OF THE FRONTAL ZONE SETTING UP
OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY IS A
CHALLENGE.
ONE DISTURBANCE RIDES FROM NW TO SE OVERNIGHT SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY SUNDAY...BUT WILL KEEP ANY SPOTTY LIGHT RAIN TO OUR SW-S. DID
HAVE MORE CLOUDS OVER OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES IN THE FORM OF SOME
PATCHY MID/HIGH CLOUDS. FURTHER NORTH...SATURDAY NIGHT WILL STILL
BE MOSTLY CLEAR AND CHILLY ESPECIALLY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA. DID INCLUDE SOME FROST IN OUR CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES FOR THE EARLY DAWN SUNDAY.
WILL INCREASE POPS ON MONDAY...THINKING THE WARM FRONT WILL BEGIN
LIFTING NORTHEAST...AT LEAST OVER THE MIDWEST...LEAVING US
VULNERABLE DOWNSTREAM. HOW ACTIVE THE WARM FRONT IS...IS ANOTHER
DILEMMA.
&&
.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR DECK IN PLACE ACROSS CWA TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ALSO BRINGING GUSTY N/NW WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...DECREASING FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN PICK BACK UP WITH MIXING DURING THE
DAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
IN/MI...AND SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR TAKING OVER IN THE WEST AROUND SUNRISE...AND
LINGERING IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER. ALSO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS...SO INCLUDED THAT AT NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINS SITES. WITH
THE WINDS REMAINING...FOG NOT A HUGE CONCERN THIS MORNING..BUT DID
INCLUDE IN SOME MVFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ONCE THE CURRENT
CLOUDS CLEAR...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L H M M M H H M M H H H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M M M M M L L M H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
KRLX 88D REMAINS DOWN. AWAITING NEW PARTS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ009>011-
019-020-028>032-039-040.
FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR WVZ037-038-
046-047.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 8 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
075-076.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
EQUIPMENT...KTB
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240531
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 AM EDT FRI MAY 24 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
130 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNEST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MVFR DECK IN PLACE ACROSS CWA TO START THE TAF PERIOD. ALSO SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGION AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES
THROUGH. THE COLD FRONT ALSO BRINGING GUSTY N/NW WINDS...WHICH
SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING...DECREASING FOR A FEW
HOURS AROUND SUNRISE...THEN PICK BACK UP WITH MIXING DURING THE
DAY. THE BACK EDGE OF THE MVFR CLOUD DECK IS CURRENTLY IN CENTRAL
IN/MI...AND SHOULD CONTINUE PUSHING EAST OVER THROUGH THE EARLY
MORNING...WITH VFR TAKING OVER IN THE WEST AROUND SUNRISE...AND
LINGERING IN THE EAST A BIT LONGER. ALSO HAVE SOME POCKETS OF IFR
CEILINGS...SO INCLUDED THAT AT NORTHERN AND MOUNTAINS SITES. WITH
THE WINDS REMAINING...FOG NOT A HUGE CONCERN THIS MORNING..BUT DID
INCLUDE IN SOME MVFR FOG IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. ONCE THE CURRENT
CLOUDS CLEAR...VFR SHOULD REMAIN THROUGH THE REST OF THE TAF
PERIOD...WITH WINDS DECREASING AS THE SUN SETS TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DISSIPATION OF MVFR/IFR CEILINGS
THIS MORNING MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY L L L M M M M M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY L L M M M M M M L L M H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE AT LEAST THROUGH THE WEEKEND WHILE
AWAITING PARTS.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...MZ
EQUIPMENT...MZ
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240209
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1008 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
615 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION IS
DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A TRUE BLUE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNEST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
02Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST OT EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY BUT MVFR FOG IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 12Z...IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST OT EAST TO VFR
SCATTERED CU...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M M L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M H M L L H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.EQUIPMENT...
|* ADD DISCUSSION HERE. *|
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
EQUIPMENT...RADAR WILL BE OUT OF SERVICE THRU AT LEAST THE
WEEKEND...AWAITING PARTS.
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240149
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
933 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
945 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.
615 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION IS
DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A TRUE BLUE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNEST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST OT EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY BUT MVFR FOG IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 12Z...IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST OT EAST TO VFR
SCATTERED CU...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
EDT 1HRLY 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H M M M M M M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M L L M M M L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H L L L L M M M L L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H L M M H M L L H H H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV
000
FXUS61 KRLX 240005
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
757 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION IS
DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A TRUE BLUE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNEST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...
COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA FROM WEST OT EAST EARLY
TONIGHT. EXPECT A BAND OF LIGHT SHOWERS WITH THIS FEATURE. AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...MAINLY VFR CEILINGS. BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...GUSTY
NORTHWEST WINDS AND MVFR CEILINGS...WITH SOME IFR CEILINGS IN THE
MOUNTAINS. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE TOO STRONG FOR ANY BUT MVFR FOG IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AFTER 12Z...IMPROVEMENT FROM WEST OT EAST TO VFR
SCATTERED CU...REACHING THE MOUNTAINS BY 18Z.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF DEVELOPMENT AND DISSIPATION OF
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY VARY A COUPLE OF HOURS.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE FRI 05/24/13
UTC 1HRLY 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11
EDT 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M H M M M H L M H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H M M
BKW CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H L L M M M M M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H M M H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M H
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 232245
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
638 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
615 PM UPDATE...CANCELLED FLASH FLOOD WATCH AS CONVECTION IS
DECREASING WITH LOSS OF HEATING. ADDITIONAL LIGHT SHOWERS WILL CROSS
THE AREA OVERNIGHT WITH A TRUE BLUE COLD FRONT...BUT WILL NOT CAUSE
A CONCERN FOR FLOODING.
PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNEST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SERVING AS FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN
WHICH WILL SHIFT GREATEST COVERAGE INTO MTNS BY 21Z...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. HAVE SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO TRY AND COVER WITH VCSH AND VCTS IN THE
PREDOMINATE GROUP. MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA AND ISO THUNDER
WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR TROF AND COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z.
EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL SHRA TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
MTNS. MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PERHAPS SOME IFR BASES IN MTNS. THIS WILL SCT OUT FROM W TO E IN
THE MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCT FLAT CU FOR AFTN.
W FLOW AND A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...AND THEN W TO NW AND GUSTY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BECOME W LATE
TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION...TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR /OR LOWER/ STRATOCU FORMING
LATER TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231928
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE
ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNIST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINITELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES FRIDAY NIGHT TO
PROVIDE DRY AND COLDER AIR UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW. DRY WEATHER
CONTINUES THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CALM FLOW UNDER HIGH PRESSURE
SYSTEM EXTENDS INTO OH VALLEYS AND WV.
CLEAR SKIES...CALM FLOW AND SOME COLD ADVECTION AT H850 WILL BRING
TEMPERATURES AT OR BELOW FREEZING POSING A WIDESPREAD THREAT FOR
GROWING VEGETATION TO FROST OR FREEZE INTO EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
KEPT POTENTIAL FOR FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO.
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA INTO TUESDAY TO PROVIDE MOSTLY
DRY WEATHER. SOME CLOUDS WILL BE COMMON...AND A SHORTWAVE AT H5 BRINGS
VORT MAXES SATURDAY NIGHT.
WENT CLOSER TO SIMILAR MET/MAV NUMBERS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH
THE PERIOD.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS IN CONTROL TO AT LEAST EARLY WEDNESDAY
PROVIDING DRY WEATHER WITH A SLOW WARMING TREND.
ANOTHER MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT FOR LOW
CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS INTO MONDAY.
A WARM FRONT DEVELOPS AS IT APPROACHES THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS A
RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
FOR SATURDAY...TEMPERATURES SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME
HIGHS IN THE 70S ACROSS LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO CLIMB IN THE UPPER TO
MID 80S BY THE END OF THE WEEK. LOWS WILL RANGING IN THE 60S.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SERVING AS FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN
WHICH WILL SHIFT GREATEST COVERAGE INTO MTNS BY 21Z...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. HAVE SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO TRY AND COVER WITH VCSH AND VCTS IN THE
PREDOMINATE GROUP. MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA AND ISO THUNDER
WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR TROF AND COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z.
EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL SHRA TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
MTNS. MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PERHAPS SOME IFR BASES IN MTNS. THIS WILL SCT OUT FROM W TO E IN
THE MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCT FLAT CU FOR AFTN.
W FLOW AND A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...AND THEN W TO NW AND GUSTY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BECOME W LATE
TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION...TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR /OR LOWER/ STRATOCU FORMING
LATER TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07
EDT 1HRLY 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03
CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M M H L M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H L L M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H M M M M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ008>011-
013>020-025>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231857
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
257 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
SECOND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO START
THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHRA/TSRA ALONG A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY IN C WV...WHICH WILL
SHIFT E NEXT SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
INTO REMAINDER OF CWA LATER THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME MTN SHRA FORM
AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME DEEPER
CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC MESO
DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH. NOT
SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY THAN
PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR SUPPORT
WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST
FEW DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7
DELTA THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER.
CONCERNED S PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH
THE BETTER PUSH ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING
THIS HAPPENING NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY
WITH MUCH OF WV ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING
DOWN TO .75. ISSUED FLASH FLOOD WATCH EARLIER FOR MUCH OF THE
LOWLANDS AND N MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1
INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
CAA COMMENCES IN EARNIST LATE WITH H85 TMPS BOTTOMING OUT CLOSE TO
0Z. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION FOR SNOWSHOE TO SEE SOME WET
SNOWFLAKES ARND DAWN. AS TROF AXIS PULLS E COLUMN COLUMN DRIES OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WILL ALLOW MORNING STRATUS TO MIX OUT IN MORNING
WITH JUST SOME FLAT CU IN AFTN HEATING. WENT CLOSER TO MET FOR
HIGHS WITH LWR 60S AND SOME 40S IN HIGHEST ELEVATIONS...DEFINATELY
NOT INDICATIVE OF LATE MAY.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER...COOLER WEATHER TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS.
THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...AND A
CLEARING SKY...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SHELTERED VALLEYS...AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO. FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY PREVENT FROST FORMATION PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV.
COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT FOR NOW...MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST...SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY SERVING AS FOCUS FOR SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN
WHICH WILL SHIFT GREATEAST COVERAGE INTO MTNS BY 21Z...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS. HAVE SOME
TEMPO GROUPS TO TRY AND COVER WITH VCSH AND VCTS IN THE
PREDOMINATE GROUP. MAY SEE ANOTHER BAND OF SHRA AND ISO THUNDER
WITH ARRIVAL OF UPR TROF AND COLD FRONT AFTER 00Z.
EXPECT SOME POST FRONTAL SHRA TO LINGER OVERNIGHT...MAINLY IN
MTNS. MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP AS WELL AT ALL TAF SITES WITH
PERHAPS SOME IFR BASES IN MTNS. THIS WILL SCT OUT FROM W TO E IN
THE MORNING WITH JUST SOME SCT FLAT CU FOR AFTN.
W FLOW AND A BIT GUSTY THIS AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES
THROUGH...AND THEN W TO NW AND GUSTY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT
MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT THIS WILL BECOME W LATE
TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE NW OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION...TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR /OR LOWER/ STRATOCU FORMING
LATER TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05
EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
CRW CONSISTENCY H M H H H M M M M H H M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M M M M M H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY H H H M H H M M M M H L
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H L L
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H M H H M M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ008>011-
013>020-025>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30/TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231651
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1251 PM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. SECOND COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WATCHING BUBBLING CU FORMING ACROSS CWA ATTM WITH SHRA FORMING ALONG
A LLVL CONVERGENCE BOUNDARY ALONG OH RVR...WHICH WILL SHIFT E NEXT
SEVERAL HRS. HAVE LKLY POPS DEVELOPING WITH THIS AS IT WORKS INTO
CENTRAL LOWLANDS AND REMAINDER OF CWA EARLY THIS AFTN. MAY SEE SOME
MTN SHRA FORM AHEAD OF THIS ON DIFFERENTIAL HEATING. SHOULD SEE SOME
DEEPER CONVECTION FORM SHORTLY WITH SOME SFC HEATING. LATEST SPC
MESO DISCUSSION HAS PLACED MUCH OF WV ZONES IN POTENTIAL FOR WATCH.
NOT SURE HOW STRONG CONVECTION WILL BE WITH LESS SFC INSTABILITY
THAN PAST FEW DAYS. HOWEVER...FRZ LVLS ARE LWR AND BETTER UPR
SUPPORT WITH APPROACH OF UPR TROF. DEEPER SHEAR A LITTLE BETTER THAN
YESTERDAY AS WELL. DAMAGING WIND PROGS NOT AS IMPRESSIVE AS PAST FEW
DAYS WITH MDLS SHOWING MARGINAL DOWNDRAFT SIGNAL AS SFC TO H7 DELTA
THETA E NOT AT GREAT. OF PERHAPS MORE CONCERN IS WATER. CONCERNED S
PART OF THIS BOUNDARY MAY TRY TO TRAIN SOMEWHAT WITH THE BETTER PUSH
ACROSS SE OH/N LOWLANDS INITIALLY. ALREADY SEEING THIS HAPPENING
NEAR TRI STATE. 1 HR FFG HAS COME DOWN CONSIDERABLY WITH MUCH OF WV
ZONES 1 TO 1.25 INCHES AND N LOWLANDS LESS GETTING DOWN TO .75. THUS
WILL BE HOISTING A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS AND N
MTNS. WILL END IT AT 00Z WITH PWS COMING DOWN TO 1 INCH.
MAY SEE A FEW BANDS OF SCT SHRA/TSRA BEHIND THIS UNTIL UPR TROF AXIS
AND COLD FRONT CROSSES THIS EVE. SHOULD SEE SOME POST FRONTAL
SHRA CONT ALONG AND E OF I79 OVERNIGHT WITH LOW STRATUS DEVELOPING
ELSEWHERE.
PREV DISCN...
A COLD FRONT WAS BARELY DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OHIO
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...SFC
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASE A BIT FROM WED...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS ON WED. EVEN SO...WITH 35 KTS LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW AND WBZ SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH 9KFT COULD STILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
IT IS A SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST S/W TROF
ACTIVATES CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ON E ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER DRYING TAKING PLACE ONCE
THAT S/W CROSSES.
SECOND S/W TROF FOLLOWS BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANAFRONT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS DAWN APPROACHES
FRI.
RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED ON LOWS TONIGHT BUT FINESSED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE SNOWSHOE
DROPPING TO THE MID 30S BY DAWN SAT HAS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD
0C.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER...COOLER WEATHER TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS.
THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...AND A
CLEARING SKY...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SHELTERED VALLEYS...AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO. FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY PREVENT FROST FORMATION PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV.
COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT FOR NOW...MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST...SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FIRST THING THIS MORNING
MAY ALSO IMPACT THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE MIXING
HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR VFR MID TO LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE RISE
TO CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W AND A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN W TO NW AND
GUSTY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W LATE TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE NW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION...EXTENT AND THEN BREAKING UP OF
STRATUS THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR /OR LOWER/ STRATOCU FORMING
LATER TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01
EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21
CRW CONSISTENCY M H H H H M H H H M M M
HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H M H H H M M M M
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H M H H M M
EKN CONSISTENCY H M M H H H H H H H M M
PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H M H H H M M H
CKB CONSISTENCY H M H H H H H H H H M M
AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ008>011-
013>020-025>032-038>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 231041
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
641 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. SECOND COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
630 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.
PREV DISCN...
A COLD FRONT WAS BARELY DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OHIO
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...SFC
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASE A BIT FROM WED...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS ON WED. EVEN SO...WITH 35 KTS LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW AND WBZ SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH 9KFT COULD STILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
IT IS A SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST S/W TROF
ACTIVATES CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ON E ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER DRYING TAKING PLACE ONCE
THAT S/W CROSSES.
SECOND S/W TROF FOLLOWS BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANAFRONT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS DAWN APPROACHES
FRI.
RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED ON LOWS TONIGHT BUT FINESSED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE SNOWSHOE
DROPPING TO THE MID 30S BY DAWN SAT HAS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD
0C.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER...COOLER WEATHER TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS.
THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...AND A
CLEARING SKY...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SHELTERED VALLEYS...AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO. FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY PREVENT FROST FORMATION PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV.
COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT FOR NOW...MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST...SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
PATCHY MVFR/IFR STRATUS MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY FIRST THING THIS MORNING
MAY ALSO IMPACT THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS...BEFORE MIXING
HIGHER...ALLOWING FOR VFR MID TO LATE MORNING.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W THIS AFTERNOON WILL GIVE RISE
TO CONVECTION AGAIN THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS...AND POSSIBLY GUSTY WINDS.
LIGHT SW FLOW THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W AND A BIT GUSTY THIS
AFTERNOON...AS A SURFACE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH...AND THEN W TO NW AND
GUSTY TONIGHT...AS A COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH. LIGHT SW FLOW ALOFT
THIS MORNING WILL BECOME W LATE TODAY...AND THEN MODERATE NW
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM TO HIGH.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORMATION...EXTENT AND THEN BREAKING UP OF
STRATUS THIS MORNING COULD VARY. TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT
RESTRICTIONS DUE TO CONVECTION THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING
COULD VARY. TIMING AND EXTENT OF MVFR /OR LOWER/ STRATOCU FORMING
LATER TONIGHT COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22
EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18
CRW CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H M H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H M H H H M
BKW CONSISTENCY H M H M M M H H H H M H
EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H M M H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H M H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M H M M M H H H H H H H
AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
000
FXUS61 KRLX 230836
AFDRLX
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
435 AM EDT THU MAY 23 2013
.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK COLD FRONT EXITS FIRST THING THIS MORNING. SECOND COLD FRONT
CROSSES THIS EVENING. UPPER DISTURBANCE CROSSES EARLY FRIDAY
MORNING. COOL CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE ARRIVES TO START THE WEEKEND.
&&
.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT WAS BARELY DISCERNIBLE AT THE SURFACE AS IT MOVED
ACROSS THE FCST AREA OVERNIGHT...STRETCHING FROM EASTERN OHIO
SOUTHWARD ACROSS CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING. NONETHELESS...SFC
AND DEEP LAYER MOISTURE DECREASE A BIT FROM WED...SO ATMOSPHERE WILL
NOT BE QUITE AS UNSTABLE AS ON WED. EVEN SO...WITH 35 KTS LOW-MID
LEVEL FLOW AND WBZ SLOWLY FALLING THROUGH 9KFT COULD STILL LEAD TO
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL FROM THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO
THIS EVENING.
IT IS A SFC COLD FRONT DRIVEN BY A PAIR OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES
CROSSING THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING THAT WILL PROVIDE THE
FORCING MECHANISM FOR THE PRECIPITATION. THE FIRST S/W TROF
ACTIVATES CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PORTION OF THE FCST AREA BY
EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOVES ON E ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE
AFTERNOON. THERE WILL BE A LITTLE FURTHER DRYING TAKING PLACE ONCE
THAT S/W CROSSES.
SECOND S/W TROF FOLLOWS BEHIND SFC COLD FRONT TONIGHT...WITH A
SECOND ROUND OF CONVECTION LIKELY ALONG/AHEAD OF THE FRONT THIS
EVENING. THE POTENTIAL FOR CONVECTION WILL END WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE COLD FRONT...BUT ANAFRONT SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO PERSIST BEHIND
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS AS DAWN APPROACHES
FRI.
RAISED TEMPERATURES A BIT TODAY TO REFLECT THE LATEST GUIDANCE.
LITTLE CHANGE NEEDED ON LOWS TONIGHT BUT FINESSED HOURLY
TEMPERATURES TO REFLECT PASSAGE OF THE COLD FRONT. HAVE SNOWSHOE
DROPPING TO THE MID 30S BY DAWN SAT HAS H85 TEMPERATURES DROP TOWARD
0C.
&&
.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
DRIER...COOLER WEATHER TO SET UP ACROSS THE REGION BEHIND THE
EXITING UPPER TROUGH. 850MB TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS
FRIDAY NIGHT...SOME OF THE COOLEST AIR WE HAVE SEEN IN A FEW WEEKS.
THIS...ALONG WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING INTO THE REGION...AND A
CLEARING SKY...WILL SEE GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING FRIDAY NIGHT...AND
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED IN MANY
LOCATIONS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE NORTH. IN MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES...THIS WOULD MAINLY AFFECT SHELTERED VALLEYS...AS NOCTURNAL
LLJ SHOULD PREVENT FROST FORMATION. WILL HIGHLIGHT THE POTENTIAL FOR
FROST/FREEZE IN THE HWO. FLY IN THE OINTMENT HOWEVER WILL BE THE
POTENTIAL FOR MID AND HIGH CLOUDS MOVING INTO THE AREA FROM AN UPPER
DISTURBANCE. THIS MAY PREVENT FROST FORMATION PARTICULARLY ACROSS
EASTERN KY...SOUTHWEST VA...AND SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS OF WV.
COULD SEE A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS SUNDAY MORNING ACROSS SOUTHERN
ZONES...BUT FOR NOW...MUCH OF THE ENERGY AND MOISTURE ASSOCIATED
WITH THIS LOOKS TO REMAIN OFF TO OUR WEST...SO FOR NOW WILL MAINTAIN
A DRY FORECAST SUNDAY MORNING.
&&
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED WPC THINKING FOR THIS PORTION OF THE
FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ACROSS THE AREA INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...MODELS SUGGEST A FEW WEAK MID-LEVEL
SHORTWAVE MAY MOVE SOUTHEAST. BELIEVE AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY...WITH
A FEW MORE CLOUDS BEGINNING SATURDAY NIGHT
A WARM FRONT WILL THEN DEVELOP AND APPROACH THE REGION ON MONDAY. AS
A RESULT...THERE WILL BE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND STORMS MONDAY AND
TUESDAY...MAINLY DURING THE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS.
TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY SHOULD BE NEAR NORMAL WITH DAYTIME HIGHS IN
THE 70S ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...WITH 60S ACROSS THE HIGHER
ELEVATIONS. AS THE HIGH PUSHES EAST ON SUNDAY...EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO WARM TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL VALUES MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
&&
.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR TO OCCASIONAL MVFR CIGS/MIST IN SHOWERS OVERNIGHT IMPROVING TO
VFR DURING THE DAYLIGHT MORNING HOURS THU.
ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W THU AFTERNOON WILL GIVE RISE TO
CONVECTION AGAIN THU8 AFTERNOON AND EVENING...BRINGING MVFR AND
LOCALIZED IFR CONDITIONS. THUNDERSTORMS CAN PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS THU
AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...
FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.
ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DEGREE OF FLIGHT RESTRICTIONS DUE TO
SHOWERS AND POST RAIN FOG COULD VARY...WITH ISOLATED DENSE FOG NOT
OUT OF THE QUESTION. TIMING OF CONVECTION THU AFTERNOON AND NT
COULD ALSO VARY.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
DATE THU 05/23/13
UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13
CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H
HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M H H H H H H H
BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M H M M M M H
EKN CONSISTENCY M M H H H H H H H H H H
PKB CONSISTENCY H H M M H H H H H H H H
CKB CONSISTENCY M M M M M H H M M H H H
AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN FOG EARLY SATURDAY MORNING.
&&
.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.
&&
$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...TRM
| 
