Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KRLX 250229
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1029 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.
LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...FOLLOWED BY
MUCH COOLER WEATHER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO TEMPERATURE TRENDS THROUGH FRI...OTHERWISE
FCST IS ON TRACK.  ALSO INCREASED THE CHANCE FOR THUNDER WITH TWO
OPPORTUNITIES...ONE IN EARLY MORNING THETA E ADVECTION AND A BETTER
CHANCE...IF NOT LIKELIHOOD...IN THE AFTERNOON HEATING AND THE COLD
FRONTAL PASSAGE.  ALSO HAVE STRONGER ENVIRONMENTAL WIND GUSTS FRI
AFTERNOON INTO FRI NT...UPPER 20S KTS.

8 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN THE W UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NEAR TERMS.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A
LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE NT.  A COLD FRONT ROLLING THROUGH FRI WILL BRING
MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST IS WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE W EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS OPPOSED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  AFTER
A MIDDAY LULL IN THUNDER ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD TOP
WARMING....THE COLD FRONT CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
CREATE A SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA BUT MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CLEARING WILL COMMENCE FROM THE W BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z SAT.

LIGHT N TO NE SFC FLOW AT THE START WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VEERING THROUGH E AND SE.  S TO SE FLOW FIRST
THING FRI MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN W TO SW AND RATHER GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS 19Z HTS...20Z CRW AND PKB...21Z CKB
AND BKW AND 22-23Z EKN.  LIGHT S FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND BE MODERATE S TO SW FRI MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFT TO MODERATE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...JUST
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE SFC WIND SHIFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY
VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS FRI.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 242355
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
755 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN
MUCH COOLER FOR THE LATTER PART OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
SLOWED ONSET OF SHOWERS IN THE W UNTIL AFTER 06Z BASED ON LATEST
MODEL TIMING INCLUDING THE NEAR TERMS.  FCST OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A
LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR MOST OF THE NT.  A COLD FRONT ROLLING THROUGH FRI WILL BRING
MVFR IN SHOWERS...WITH A COUPLE OF OPPORTUNITIES FOR THUNDERSTORMS.
THE FIRST IS WHEN THE SHOWERS ARRIVE FROM THE W EARLY FRI MORNING.
THE BEST CHANCE FOR THESE MORNING THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE OVER THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AS OPPOSED TO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.  AFTER
A MIDDAY LULL IN THUNDER ON ACCOUNT OF MORNING CLOUD TOP
WARMING....THE COLD FRONT CROSSING DURING THE AFTERNOON HEATING WILL
CREATE A SECOND...BETTER CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS THROUGHOUT MOST OF
THE AREA BUT MAINLY E OF THE OHIO RIVER...WITH GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE.

CLEARING WILL COMMENCE FROM THE W BY THE END OF THE TAF
PERIOD...00Z SAT.

LIGHT N TO NE SFC FLOW AT THE START WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT...MAINLY VEERING THROUGH E AND SE.  S TO SE FLOW FIRST
THING FRI MORNING WILL BECOME GUSTY FROM THE S DURING THE DAYLIGHT
MORNING HOURS...AND THEN W TO SW AND RATHER GUSTY IN THE WAKE OF THE
FRONT FRI AFTERNOON.  TIMING IS 19Z HTS...20Z CRW AND PKB...21Z CKB
AND BKW AND 22-23Z EKN.  LIGHT S FLOW ALOFT EARLY ON WILL
STRENGTHEN OVERNIGHT AND BE MODERATE S TO SW FRI MORNING...AND THEN
SHIFT TO MODERATE W TO NW BEHIND THE FRONT FRI AFTERNOON...JUST
ABOUT AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN THE SFC WIND SHIFT.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY
VARY...AS MAY THE GUSTY WINDS

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/25/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 241839
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS HAVE THE FRONT AND SHORT WAVE EXITING EARLY FRIDAY
NIGHT...WITH LINGERING SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS ENDING BEFORE
MIDNIGHT. DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN WITH WEAK HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
NIGHT...LEADING TO COOLER TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT.

A SECONDARY AND WEAKER FRONT WILL DROP SOUTHWARD THROUGH THE AREA
SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT...BRINGING JUST MAINLY CLOUDS DUE TO A
LACK OF MOISTURE AND DYNAMICS. NOT MUCH TEMPERATURE CHANGE BEHIND
THE FRONT FROM THAT EXPERIENCED ON FRIDAY...WITH HIGHS SATURDAY
AGAIN IN THE 70S. SATURDAY NIGHT WILL BE COOL AGAIN UNDER WEAK HIGH
PRESSURE...BUT MAINLY DUE TO THE DRIER AIR AND LIGHT WINDS.

SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS UNDER PLENTY OF SUNSHINE SUNDAY AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST...ALLOWING FOR A NICE END TO THE WEEKEND...WITH
TEMPERATURES RISING WELL INTO THE 70S.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE REGION ON
MONDAY...WITH WARMER...AND UNSTABLE AIR ACROSS THE AREA. FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WILL WIND UP ACROSS OHIO BY TUESDAY. WITH THE
WARM...UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE...COMBINED WITH MULTIPLE WAVES
MOVING ACROSS THE AREA...WILL SEE AN INCREASED CHANCE FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS. PW VALUES BY TUESDAY WILL RISE TO AROUND 1.4
INCHES...WHICH IS WELL ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR...SO MAY
GET SOME HEAVY DOWNPOURS WITH ANY CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS.

REMAINDER OF PERIOD WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN COOL...AND
UNSETTLED...AS UPPER LOW FORMS ACROSS AND CONTINUES TO MEANDER
ACROSS THE CENTRAL U.S. IN A REX BLOCK TYPE PATTERN. INCREASED POPS
ACROSS CWA FOR THE PERIOD...AND TRENDED TEMPERATURES TOWARDS THE
COOLER SIDE OF GUIDANCE. WITH THE PROLONGED PERIOD OF RAIN...SEVERAL
INCHES ARE EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...WILL NOT HIGHLIGHT
ANY POTENTIAL FOR WATER ISSUES...BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR
INSTEAD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFT BY. HAVE SOME MVFR CIG/VIS IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241734
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER ON
SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WINDS HAVE PICKED UP SOME...WHICH HAS REALLY MIXED OUT THE MOISTURE
WITH DEWPOINTS DROPPING INTO THE TEENS IN MANY AREAS. AREA OF HIGH
LEVEL SCATTERED TO BROKEN CLOUDS DRIFTING NE THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON. SURFACE LOW CURRENTLY OVER IOWA APPROACHES
TONIGHT...AND MOVES ACROSS SOUTHERN LAKE ERIE FRIDAY WITH A WEAK
COLD FRONT CROSSING CWA. HAVE SOME UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT AS A 500MB
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES BY AS WELL...HELPING TO STRENGTHEN...OR AT
LEAST MAINTAIN...THE SURFACE LOW. MODELS HAVE TRENDED A BIT
SLOWER WITH THIS...WHICH WOULD MAKE SENSE WITH A BIT STRONGER
SURFACE LOW AND HAVE SLOWED DOWN AND INCREASED POPS. ALSO ADDED
SOME ISOLATED THUNDER...DO NOT EXPECT ANY WIDESPREAD THUNDER
ANTICIPATING SOMETHING MUCH LIKE THE FRONT EARLIER THIS WEEK WITH
A CELL OR TWO THAT LIGHTS UP.

BLENDED WARMER MET INTO LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH IS STILL A TOUCH
COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST. ALSO TRENDED A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER
FRIDAY WITH MORE CLOUDS/RAIN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING AS SCATTERED TO BROKEN HIGH
CLOUDS DRIFT BY. HAVE SOME MVFR CIG/VIS IN SHOWERS DEVELOPING
EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS A SURFACE LOW PASSES TO THE NORTH WITH A
COLD FRONT SLIDING THROUGH. ISOLATED THUNDER POSSIBLE FRIDAY BUT
NOT HIGH ENOUGH PROBABILITY TO MENTION IN TAFS AT THIS POINT.

LIGHT EAST WINDS AT THE SURFACE TODAY...WILL GRADUALLY TURN SOUTH
TONIGHT...THEN SOUTHWEST FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CAT CHANGES WITH SHOWERS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/MZ/SL
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241317
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
917 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.  LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...CANCELLED REMAINING FREEZE WARNING AS TEMPERATURES
HAVE RISEN ABOVE FREEZING IN THE PREVIOUSLY WARNED AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS.

WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN
ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241041
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.  LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT HAVE CAUSED TEMPERATURES TO BEGIN RISING
OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. THEREFORE...WILL REMOVE SOME
WESTERN COUNTIES FROM THE FREEZE WARNING.

MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS.

WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN
ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ010-011-
     018>020-027>032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 241004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
602 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.  LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS.

WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN
ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED TODAY AND THIS EVENING...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT. A COLD FRONT WILL ARRIVE FROM THE WEST
LATE TONIGHT...PROVIDING SOME CEILING AND VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS IN
RAIN SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008-010-011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 240646
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED
BY ANOTHER ON SATURDAY.  LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES
MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS SHOWING A MOISTURE STARVED WARM FRONT PUSHING NORTHWARD
TODAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS...NO PRECIPITATION IS
EXPECTED...JUST SOME CLOUDS.

WINDS PICK UP TONIGHT IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING SYSTEM. DUE TO
THE WINDS...WILL GO ABOVE MOS GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AT MOST
LOCATIONS...AND WITH THE WARMER MOS GUIDANCE IN THE PROTECTED
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. BASED ON THE CURRENT MODEL RUNS...WILL SLOW DOWN
ARRIVAL OF POPS SLIGHTLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE A MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A WEAK COLD
FRONT WILL PUSH ACROSS THE AREA ON FRIDAY.  PREVIOUS FORECAST STILL
APPEARS TO BE ON TRACK WITH THE FRONTAL TIMING AND THE ASSOCIATED
PRECIPITATION.  SO...ONLY SOME MINOR TWEAKS WERE MADE.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST BY LATE FRIDAY...
BRINGING THE RAIN CHANCES TO AN END.  HOWEVER...A SECOND WEAK COLD
FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH SOUTHEAST INTO THE LATE SATURDAY INTO
SATURDAY NIGHT.  MODELS INDICATE LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRECIPITATION
WITH THE FRONT...AND THEY LIMIT THE LITTLE PRECIPITATION TO OUR
NORTHERN COUNTIES.  BECAUSE OF THIS...WILL MAINTAIN LOW POPS FAR
NORTH FOR SATURDAY.

BEHIND THIS FRONT...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD SOUTH...WHICH SHOULD
RESULT IN DRY WEATHER.  THE LATEST ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT PRECIP
CHANCES WILL INCREASE ON SUNDAY AS THE FRONT STARTS WORKING NORTH AS
A WARM FRONT.  THE GFS INDICATES THE REGION SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON
SUNDAY.

WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW.  BUT WILL HAVE TO MONITOR THE MODELS FOR
POSSIBLE INCLUSION ON THE CHANCE OF SHOWERS ON SUNDAY.

BASED ON EXPECTED WEATHER AND LATEST MOS...HAVE ONLY MADE MINOR
TWEAKS TO TEMPS FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT.  LATEST MOS GUIDANCE IS
WARMER FOR HIGHS ON SATURDAY...AND HAVE TWEAKED OUR TEMPERATURES UP
A LITTLE TO REFLECT THIS TREND.

DID NOT MAKE ANY REAL CHANGES TO TEMPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON SUNDAY SUGGEST TEMPERATURES
WILL BE WARMER THAN PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT...AND HAVE ONCE AGAIN TWEAKED
OUR EXPECTED HIGHS UP.  BUT I STAYED BELOW GUIDANCE TO BETTER MATCH
UP WITH OUR NEIGHBORING OFFICES.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY














000
FXUS61 KRLX 240529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
116 AM EDT THU APR 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.  LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SOME FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

8 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH NW FLOW AND STRATOCU OVER NE WV DIMINISHING.

PREV DISCN...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED
AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS
IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY
SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...
LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND
ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO
THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED THROUGHOUT THE PERIOD...DESPITE SOME
VFR CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 240255
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1055 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS NORTH OPF THE AREA THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
ADDED SOME FROST OVERNIGHT AND EARLY THU MORNING.  OTHERWISE NO
CHANGES.

8 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH NW FLOW AND STRATOCU OVER NE WV DIMINISHING.

PREV DISCN...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED
AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS
IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY
SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...
LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND
ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO
THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING N OF THE4 AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.  A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT AND THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU
MORNING AND LIGHT E TO SE THU AFTERNOON.  LIGHT N FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT S THU
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 240007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
807 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE SAILS NORTH OPF THE AREA THURSDAY.  A WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR THE WEEKEND.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES MONDAY AND CROSSES MIDWEEK...THEN MUCH COOLER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK WITH NW FLOW AND STRATOCU OVER NE WV DIMINISHING.

PREV DISCN...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED
AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS
IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY
SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...
LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND
ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT
WILL DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO
THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING
OF PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS
NORTH ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S.
THIS WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVING N OF THE4 AREA THIS PERIOD WILL BRING VFR
CONDITIONS AND LIGHT WINDS.  A WARM FRONT MOVING UP THROUGH THE OHIO
VALLEY WILL BRING HIGH AND SOME MID CLOUD OVERNIGHT AND THU.

LIGHT AND VARIABLE SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME LIGHT NE THU
MORNING AND LIGHT E TO SE THU AFTERNOON.  LIGHT N FLOW OVERNIGHT
WILL BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE THU MORNING...AND THEN LIGHT S THU
AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 04/24/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/LS
NEAR TERM...TRM/LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 231935
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
335 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH THE EVENING.
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DRY WARM FRONT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS HAVE LATCHED ONTO A MORE VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE...AS COMPARED TO
PREVIOUS RUNS...THAT EMERGES FROM THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES THURSDAY.
WHILE THIS WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THRU THE OHIO VALLEY AND WEAKEN LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...IT DOES NOW HAVE A BETTER MOISTURE FEED
AND UPPER SUPPORT TO BRING A BAND OF WIDESPREAD SHOWERS LATER
THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY WITH THE ASSOCIATED COOL FRONT. TOTAL
RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL LIKELY AVERAGE A QUARTER OF AN INCH...BUT THIS
IS MORE THAN THE PREVIOUS SYSTEM. THIS SHOULD HELP ALLEVIATE THE DRY
CONDITIONS OF LATE. DESPITE THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTION...WILL ONLY
SLOW THIS FRONT DOWN A TOUCH GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT. THUS...
LEANING AWAY FROM THE SLOWEST NAM AND TOWARD THE FASTEST GFS AND
ECMWF. WIDESPREAD CLOUDS WILL LIMIT INSTABILITY...AND HAVE LEFT
THUNDER OUT FOR NOW. SHOWERS AND CLOUDS WILL CLEAR FROM THE WEST
BEHIND THE FRONT LATER FRIDAY...AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. NOT MUCH
TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON EITHER SIDE OF THIS FRONT...AS THE AIRMASS
BEHIND IT IS OF PACIFIC ORIGIN. HOWEVER...A SECONDARY COOL FRONT WILL
DROP SOUTHWARD INTO THE AREA LATER FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...
BRINGING MORE CLOUDS THAN SHOWERS WITH IT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE
COOLER UP NORTH ON SATURDAY BEHIND THIS FRONT...ELSEWHERE BACK INTO
THE 70S SIMILAR TO FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ACTIVE AND COOLER PATTERN TO TAKE HOLD IN THE LONG TERM. BEGINNING OF
PERIOD WILL START OUT WARM...AS A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY LIFTS NORTH
ON MONDAY. THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE CWA FOR MONDAY
THROUGH TUESDAY...WITH CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION AS SEVERAL WAVES
MOVE ALONG THE FRONT. FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL SWEEP ACROSS THE AREA AS
A COLD FRONT TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY...AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES
NORTH AND EAST...AS UPPER TROUGH DEEPENS ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THIS
WILL START THE TRANSITION INTO THE COOLER...WET PERIOD FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD...POSSIBLY INTO THE WEEKEND. MORALE
OF THE STORY...ENJOY THE NICE WEATHER NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK STILL HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF WV. IT CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE
AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
A FEW SITES SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 03Z THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT COULD VARY. CIGS COULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED IF
CLOUDS ARE DEEPER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/SL/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231756
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
156 PM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
DRY WEDNESDAY WITH CLOUDS BREAKING UP THROUGH THE EVENING.
INCREASING CLOUDS EARLY THURSDAY MORNING WITH A DRY WARM FRONT. A
WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO REAL CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH HIGH
PRESSURE FIRMLY OVER THE CWA. RELATIVE HUMIDITY HAS BEEN
FAIRLY LOW THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY IN THE SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA COUNTIES AND THROUGH THE COAL FIELDS. AS SUCH...ISSUED AN
SPS FOR ENHANCED FIRE DANGER IN THE SW VA COUNTIES. RH WILL RECOVER
A BIT OVERNIGHT BUT EXPECT THEM TO DROP TOMORROW WITH LOW
DEWPOINTS BEHIND A DRY WARM FRONT TOMORROW.

TEMPERATURES WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING OVERNIGHT FOR THE NORTHERN
WV COUNTIES AND A FEW OF THE SE OHIO COUNTIES...PROMPTING A FREEZE
WARNING. WINDS WILL DECOUPLE TONIGHT...HOWEVER...KEPT TEMPERATURES
A BIT HIGHER TO THE SOUTHWEST AS CLOUD COVER SHOULD MOVE IN
LIMITING SOME OF THE RADIATIONAL COOLING. WAA AND SUNNY SKIES WILL
CONTRIBUTE TO TEMPERATURES IN THE 70S THURSDAY ACROSS THE CWA.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.  APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.  NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE.  WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER.  MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.

STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS.  BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
STRATOCU DECK STILL HOLDING ITS OWN IN THE NORTHEASTERN PORTIONS
OF WV. IT CONTINUES TO ERODE ALONG THE SOUTHERN AND WESTERN EDGE
AS THE DAY CONTINUES. WINDS ARE GENERALLY FROM THE NORTHEAST WITH
A FEW SITES SEEING SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE HIGH PRESSURE.

CLOUDS WILL BEGIN TO MOVE IN FROM THE WEST AROUND 03Z THURSDAY
AHEAD OF A WARM FRONT. THERE IS NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED WITH
THIS FEATURE. WINDS WILL BECOME CALM BEFORE SHIFTING EAST THURSDAY
MORNING.

EXPECT CONDITIONS TO REMAIN VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH THE WARM
FRONT COULD VARY. CIGS COULD BE A BIT LOWER THAN EXPECTED IF
CLOUDS ARE DEEPER THAN ANTICIPATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR WVZ008>011-
     016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 3 AM TO 10 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR OHZ066-067-
     075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231516
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1116 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
11AM UPDATE...
FORECAST HAS NOT CHANGED MUCH FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.

STRATUS DECK HAS BEEN HOLDING FAIRLY STEADY OVER THE NORTHERN
COUNTIES BUT HAS BEGUN TO BREAK UP ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE AS
MIXING GETS GOING.

OLD BELOW...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.  APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.  NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE.  WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER.  MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.

STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS.  BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
15Z UPDATE...
STRATOCU DECK HAS HUNG ON OVER NORTHERASTERN WV AND MOVED ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO. GENERALLY STAYING VFR EVEN IN
THE CLOUDS...WITH SOME MVFR CONDITIONS OCCURRING. CLOUDS ARE
BEGINNING TO BREAK UP AND DISSIPATE AS MIXING BEGINS.

OLD BELOW...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS
CAN THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT
WILL BE ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH
DISSIPATING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/LS
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY/LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
608 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.  APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.  NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE.  WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER.  MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.

STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS.  BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED...EVEN THOUGH SOME CLOUDS FROM A WARM FRONT WILL BE
ARRIVING LATE TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CLOUD DECK IN THE NORTH
DISSIPATING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY/JW
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230720
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
305 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CREATING A STRATUS DECK OVER THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
THIS MORNING. MODELS HANDLE THIS MOISTURE CONSIDERABLY DIFFERENTLY
TODAY WHEN MIXING STARTS OCCURRING. RUC SHOWS IT QUICKLY MIXING OUT
WHILE THE NAM AND GFS HOLD ONTO CUMULUS WELL INTO CENTRAL WV. WENT
MORE TOWARD THE RUC FOR NOW...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

WITH A NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUING TODAY...WENT TOWARD THE COOLER MOS
GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS.

WINDS SHOULD DECOUPLE TONIGHT...ALLOWING FOR SOME GOOD RADIATION.
BIG QUESTION IS HOW QUICKLY CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT PUSH INTO THE
AREA. THIS BECOMES EXTRA IMPORTANT DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY OF
FREEZING TEMPERATURES IF THERE IS ENOUGH CLOUD FREE TIME AFTER WINDS
LAY DOWN. WILL GO WITH A FREEZE WATCH ACROSS THE NORTHERN COUNTIES
WHERE COLDEST TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED...BUT OUTLYING AREAS JUST
SOUTH OF THE FREEZE WATCH ARE NOT NECESSARILY SAFE...DEPENDING ON
CLOUD TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
MODELS IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE AREA EARLY THURSDAY.
HOWEVER...HIGH WILL SLIDE EAST...ALLOWING A WARM FRONT TO
DEVELOP/PUSH INTO THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS FRONT WILL
PUSH NORTH THURSDAY NIGHT.

LATEST GUIDANCE ACTUALLY INDICATES AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER THAN OUR
PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATED.  APPEARS THIS IS THE RESULT OF A SLOWER
MOVEMENT OF THE WARM FRONT.  HAVE TWEAKED DEWPOINTS DOWN QUITE A
BIT...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE REGION. WITH
AIRMASS REMAINING DRY INVOF THIS FEATURE...ONLY EXPECT AN INCREASE
IN CLOUDS.

A COLD FRONT IS THEN PROGGED TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE REGION LATE
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY.  LATEST GUIDANCE IS A LITTLE SLOWER WITH
THE FRONT...AND HAVE TWEAKED POP AND WEATHER GRIDS TO REFLECT THIS
TREND.  NOT MUCH...IF ANY...INSTABILITY ALONG/AHEAD OF FRONT.  BUT
NAM DOES SHOW A LITTLE.  WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST INDICATING SLIGHT
CHANCE THUNDER...HAVE DECIDED TO KEEP IT IN PLACE.

WEAK HIGH PRESSURE SHOULD NOSE IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...BRINGING PRECIP CHANCES TO END.

MODELS HAVE BEEN CONSISTENT PUSHING A WEAK COLD FRONT SOUTHEAST LATE
FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.  HAVE MAINTAINED LOW POPS WITH THIS
FEATURE.

LATEST MAV NUMBERS FOR HIGHS ON THURSDAY WERE CLOSE TO PREVIOUS
FORECAST NUMBERS...WITH THE MET NUMBERS LOWER.  MET NUMBERS APPEAR
TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE...SO HAVE LEANED TOWARDS THE MAV NUMBERS.

STILL NOT SURE ABOUT LOWS THURSDAY NIGHT.  WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS AND
INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...EXPECT TEMPS WILL REMAIN UP AND HAVE
AGAIN LEANED TOWARD MAV NUMBERS.  BUT WOULD NOT BE TOO SURPRISED TO
SEE LOWS SLIP BELOW OUR FORECASTED VALUES.

CURRENT THINKING IS THAT MAV NUMBERS ALSO LOOK BEST FOR HIGHS ON
FRIDAY...AS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF COOLING IS INDICATED BEHIND THE
FRONT.

MEX NUMBERS WERE USED TO TWEAK PREVIOUS NUMBERS FOR LOWS FRIDAY
NIGHT AND HIGHS ON SATURDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
THE FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL PCPN
MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE NORTH COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     WVZ008>011-016>020-027>032.
OH...FREEZE WATCH FROM LATE TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-085.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...JSH
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY














000
FXUS61 KRLX 230551
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
127 AM EDT WED APR 23 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
     UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OBS INDICATE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT STILL REMAIN INTO CNTRL OH.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A STRATUS DECK OVER NORTHEASTERN WV...SCATTERING WESTWARD ACROSS
NORTHERN WV AND EAST CENTRAL OHIO...MAY CAUSE SOME MVFR CONDITIONS
THIS MORNING. THIS DECK SHOULD TURN INTO A CUMULUS DECK AND
DISSIPATE TODAY AS THE SUN MIXES THE ATMOSPHERE. VFR CONDITIONS CAN
THEN BE EXPECTED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: EXTENT OF THE STRATUS DECK IN THE NORTH COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 230238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1038 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...

...UPDATE...

INCREASED WINDS AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS OBS INDICATE
WINDS GUSTING TO 30 KT STILL REMAIN INTO CNTRL OH.

COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING.
TEMPERATURES WILL DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY
CONDITIONS UNTIL MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR
SHELTERED AREAS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW
NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX TOWARD MORNING RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR SKIES AND VFR
CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MANY DIFFERENCES ON WHEN WINDS WILL SLOW DOWN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW











000
FXUS61 KRLX 230024
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
824 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
GUSTY WINDS WILL TAPER OFF INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING AS COLD FRONT
EXITS THE AREA. COOLER TEMPERATURES WEDNESDAY BEFORE TEMPERATURES
REBOUND TO NEAR NORMAL FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. A WEAK COLD
FRONT CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT MOVES OFF TO THE EAST THIS EVENING. TEMPERATURES WILL
DROP IN ITS WAKE UNDER CLEAR SKIES BUT WINDY CONDITIONS UNTIL
MORNING WILL LIKELY KEEP FROST AT BAY EXCEPT FOR SHELTERED AREAS.
HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL BE ABOUT 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS PREVAIL OVER REGION WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS IN THE
WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. GRADIENTS SHOULD RELAX OVERNIGHT RESULTING
IN LIGHTER WINDS BY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS GIVING CLEAR
SKIES AND VFR CONDITIONS EVERYWHERE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: SLIM CHANCE OF LOWER VISIBILITIES IF WINDS
CALM FASTER THAN EXPECTED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 04/23/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...ARJ/JW
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JW










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
251 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING A WARM UP FRIDAY NIGHT...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES FOR SATURDAY...BEHIND THE FRONT. GFS/ECMWF
HAVE BEEN IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THE LAST FEW DAYS ON THE TIMING OF
PCPN REACHING SOUTHEAST OH EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THE ACTUAL
COLD FRONT LATER FRIDAY MORNING. WITH DEEP SOUTHWEST FLOW AHEAD OF
THE FRONT...EXPECT WAA FOR A MILD FRIDAY NIGHT. CLOUDINESS AND COOLING
SHOWERS SHOULD KEEP NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES ON SATURDAY.

THE GFS SUGGEST AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE REFLECTING A SECONDARY
COLD FRONT ON SATURDAY. SO KEPT LOW POPS SATURDAY.

THIS FRONT COULD STALL SOUTH OF THE AREA DURING THE WEEKEND BEFORE
LIFTING NORTH AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY AND MONDAY FOR ADDITIONAL
PCPN MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHERN WV.

USED HPC GUIDE FOR TEMPERATURES AND DEWPOINTS WITH FEW TWEAKS DOWN
ON HIGHS THROUGH THE PERIODS.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221837
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
234 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT ON THE MASS...WIND...AND QPF FIELDS THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BRING
MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES AND NEAR CALM WINDS...BEFORE A WEAK WARM STARTS
AFFECTING THE AREA TOWARD DAWN THURSDAY. EXPECT ANY INCREASE IN
CLOUDS FROM THE APPROACHING WARM FRONT...WILL BE QUITE LATE SO
TEMPERATURES MAY DROP INTO THE LOWER AND MID 30S...AND THUS A
POSSIBLE FROST. WILL HIGHLIGHT THIS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT.

THE WEAK WARM FRONT WILL PUSH UP THROUGH THE AREA THURSDAY...
ACCOMPANIED BY SOME CLOUDS BUT NO PRECIP. EVEN WITH SOME CLOUDS ON
THURSDAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY FLOW AND GOOD WARM ADVECTION WILL
ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO RISE INTO THE 70S...ESPECIALLY SOUTH WHERE THE
MOST SUNSHINE WILL BE.

ANOTHER WEAK SO CALLED COOL FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND
WEAKENING DYNAMICS WILL MOVE QUICKLY ACROSS THE AREA LATER THURSDAY
NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING. THE FRONTAL SYSTEM LOOKS SIMILAR TO THE
SYSTEM PUSHING THROUGH TODAY...WITH HIGH POPS BUT LOW QPF. SKIES
CLEAR FOR FRIDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN AND CONTINUES INTO
FRIDAY. THE HIGH IS PARTLY OF PACIFIC ORIGIN SO THAT ONLY MINOR
COOLING IS EXPECTED ON FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS












000
FXUS61 KRLX 221734
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
134 PM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOUDS BREAKING UP TODAY BUT SCATTERED SHOWERS EXPECTED WITH THE
COLD FRONT.  HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT
THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT CONTINUES TO PUSH ITS WAY EAST. PREFRONTAL
CONVECTION HAS MOVED OUT OF THE AREA...HOWEVER...SOME SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE
FORMING ALONG THE COLD FRONT. THESE SHOWERS DO HAVE A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF PRODUCING SOME THUNDER BUT WITH LIMITED DAYTIME HEATING
TO CONTRIBUTE TO INSTABILITY IT IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE WIDESPREAD.
THE FRONT PASSES THIS EVENING PUTTING AN END TO THE CHANCE FOR
SHOWERS FOR MOST...WITH THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING ON TO A SLIGHT
CHANCE UNTIL MORNING.

CAA TONIGHT WILL DROP OUR TEMPERATURES A BIT OVERNIGHT. WINDS WILL
INCREASE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT. WIND GUSTS
COULD BE FAIRLY HIGH...UP IN THE 40S AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS AND
15 TO 20 KTS ALONG THE LOWLANDS.  THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME FROST
OVERNIGHT IN THE SHELTERED VALLEYS...HOWEVER...KEEPING THAT OUT
OF THE GRIDS FOR THE MOMENT.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE THROUGH THE AFTERNOON...ENDING BY LATE
EVENING. SOME THUNDER IS POSSIBLE WITH THESE SHOWERS. GENERALLY
VFR CONDITIONS WITH MVFR POSSIBLE IN SOME OF THE SHOWERS.

BEHIND THE FRONT...EXPECT CONDITIONS TO BE VFR...HOWEVER...THERE
COULD BE SOME STRONG GUSTY WINDS ESPECIALLY ALONG RIDGE TOPS.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/LS
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221449
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1049 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030AM UPDATE...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS ARE STILL MOVING THROUGH WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS IN THE COAL FIELDS AND MOVING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS. ANOTHER BROKEN LINE OF SHOWERS HAS FORMED ALONG THE
OHIO RIVER AND WILL CONTINUE E ACROSS NORTHERN WV. THE COLD FRONT
IS LAGGING A BIT BEHIND THE PRECIPITATION...BUT LOOKS TO BE
ENTERING THE CWA HERE WITHIN THE NEXT HOUR OR SO. AS THE FRONT MOVES
THROUGH WE WILL LIKELY SEE SOME REDEVELOPMENT. THERE IS A SLIGHT
CHANCE THAT SOME THUNDER COULD BE HEARD THIS AFTERNOON WITH SOME
WEAK INSTABILITY...HOWEVER...NOT EXPECTING ANYTHING WIDESPREAD.

615 AM UPDATE... SCT SHRA MOVING ALONG AND E OF OH RIVER AS
OF 10Z WITH FRONT STILL HANGING BACK INTO W OH. ADJUSTED HOURLY
POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS
PREFRONTAL ACTION PUSHES E...WILL LOOK FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG
SURFACE FRONT AS IT CROSSES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

15Z UPDATE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM THE CURRENT FORECAST.  SHOWERS
CONTINUE TO SLIDE E INTO THE MOUNTAINS. EXPERIENCING A FEW AREAS
OF MVFR IN THE MORE ROBUST SHRA. UPDATING POPS A BIT TO TREND
CLOSER TO RADAR.

SHOWERS ARE BEGINNING TO INCREASE JUST A BIT WITH THE FRONT. A
RUMBLE OR TWO OF THUNDER IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. HAVE NOT
CHANGED THE CIGS FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...BUT AS NEW MODEL
DATA AND SATELLITE IMAGES COME ACROSS MAY TWEAK THOSE A BIT FOR
THE NEXT ISSUANCE.

WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SHIFT AND INCREASE ALONG AND BEHIND THE FRONT
WITH SOME GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA. AS
THE FRONT EXITS...SKIES SHOULD BEGIN TO CLEAR BUT THE TIMING OF
THIS IS STILL A BIT QUESTIONABLE.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/LS
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30/LS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 221027
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
627 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
615 AM UPDATE...
SCT SHRA MOVING ALONG AND E OF OH RIVER AS OF 10Z WITH FRONT STILL
HANGING BACK INTO W OH. ADJUSTED HOURLY POPS TO REFLECT CURRENT
RADAR TRENDS FOR THIS MORNING. ONCE THIS PREFRONTAL ACTION PUSHES
E...WILL LOOK FOR SCT DEVELOPMENT ALONG SURFACE FRONT AS IT
CROSSES TODAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
12Z TUESDAY THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS WV WILL SLIDE E INTO MOUNTAINS AROUND 12Z BEFORE
EXITING SHORTLY AFTER. GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS BUT SOME MVFR VSBY
RESTRICTIONS IN THE MORE ROBUST SHRA.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE AFTER 15Z BEFORE PICKING BACK
UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS A
RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME LOW END VFR CIGS AND 5 TO 6SM VSBY ALONG
THIS AS IT CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING
OCCURS POST FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD
ALLOW SOME MVFR STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO
INCLUDE KEKN. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220715
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
307 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. DRY WARM FRONT THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT CROSSES
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE IN CONTROL OF THE WEATHER ON WEDNESDAY. BASED
ON 850 MB TEMPERATURES AND A NORTHERLY WIND FLOW...WENT A BIT BELOW
MOS GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES.

GOOD RADIATION CONDITIONS FOR PART OF WEDNESDAY NIGHT...BUT THEN
SOME CLOUDS FROM THE WARM FRONT ARRIVE...MAINLY IN THE SOUTHWEST.
WILL GO ON THE LOWER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE IN THE NORTH WHERE MODEL
DEW POINTS AND GOOD RADIATION SHOULD ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO GET NEAR
OR BELOW FREEZING. MAY NEED TO HOIST A FREEZE WATCH EVENTUALLY...BUT
WITH WARM FRONT CLOUDS APPROACHING...A BIT IFFY RIGHT NOW. IN THE
SOUTHWEST WHERE WARM FRONTAL CLOUDS ARE MOST LIKELY...WILL GO TOWARD
THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS.

THE WARM FRONT PUSHES THROUGH ON THURSDAY...BUT MODELS INDICATING
THAT DRY LOWER LEVELS SHOULD PREVENT PRECIPITATION. WILL CONTINUE
DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY EVENTUALLY NEED TO ADD SOME SPRINKLES.

ECMWF AND GFS ARE VERY SIMILAR ON COLD FRONT LATE THURSDAY NIGHT
INTO FRIDAY...WITH NAM HAVING JUST SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING. WITH
FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN MODELS...WILL TIGHTEN POP GRADIENT
CONSIDERABLY...AND REMOVE POPS BEHIND THE FRONT FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND
FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS N KY AND E OH WILL SLIDE E INTO WV BY 09Z BEFORE
EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH AS MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A HIGH DECK.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT
CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST
FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN AND
PERHAPS EVEN KCKB. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 220628
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
228 AM EDT TUE APR 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY WITH SHOWERS. HIGH PRESSURE AND COOLER
WEDNESDAY. WARMER BUT DRY ON THURSDAY. ANOTHER WEAK COLD FRONT
CROSSES FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FORECAST THINKING REMAINS ON TRACK...BY AND LARGE. -SHRA BREAKING
OUT ACROSS KY AND E OH AND THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE INTO EARLY
MORNING HOURS. MUCH OF THIS WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT
SLIDES E INTO CWA AS S/W TROF CROSSES. SURFACE FRONT STILL WELL
BACK TO THE W...WILL MARCH THRU TODAY WITH BAND OF SHRA AND
POSSIBLE THUNDER...WITH TIMING GENERALLY ON TRACK FROM PREVIOUS
FORECASTS. EXODUS OF POST FRONTAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LAG A
FEW HOURS BEHIND SURFACE FRONT. NAM MUCH MORE BULLISH ON KEEPING
CLOUDS BEHIND...ESSENTIALLY TRAPPED BENEATH DEVELOPING SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION AS CAA BEGINS. NOT SURE HOW MUCH OF THIS TO BUY WITH
REMAINDER OF MODELS CLEARING THINGS OUT NICELY LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND EVENING.

CAA WILL COMMENCE IN EARNEST TONIGHT WITH SOME STRATUS FIGURED IN
THE THE N MOUNTAINS PERHAPS EXTENDING W INTO N WV LOWLANDS. H85
TEMPS WILL BOTTOM OUT NEAR -2C BY 12Z WEDNESDAY ON STIFF NW WINDS
JUST OFF THE DECK. AS SUCH...KEEP A GOOD PUFF GOING OVERNIGHT
ACROSS THE N WITH GUSTS 15 TO 20 KTS AND UP TO 40 KTS ON THE
HIGHEST RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. FURTHER SW ACROSS S WV/TRI
STATE/NE KY...GRADIENT TRIES TO RELAX LATE FOR A FROST THREAT IN
THE SHELTERED VALLEYS AND HOLLOWS. ELECTED TO KEEP FROST OUT OF
THE WX GRIDS ATTM THOUGH...DUE TO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON MAGNITUDE
OF BL AND SURFACE WINDS ACROSS THOSE LOCATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
IT WILL BE DRY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES.
TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S WEDNESDAY WITH A NORTH
BREEZE...BUT REBOUND WELL INTO THE 70S BY THURSDAY...AS THE HIGH
SHIFTS EAST AND SOUTHERLY FLOW RETURNS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
A QUICK WARM UP THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING
COLD FRONT.

MODELS...ECMWF/GFS CONTINUE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND
STRENGTH MAINTAINING CONSISTENCY DURING THE PAST FEW
DAYS. BOTH MODELS HAVE SOME CONVECTION AHEAD OF THE FRONT REACHING
SOUTHEAST OH BY 09Z FRIDAY. SHOWERS OR STORMS WILL SPREAD EAST
INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS WITH FRIDAYS COLD FRONT.

MODELS SUGGEST A SECONDARY FRONT SWEEPING ACROSS MAINLY THE NORTHERN
SECTIONS FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY.

THIS TIMING IS NOT DURING THE PEAK DIURNAL HEATING UNDER CUTTING
THUNDERSTORM PROBABILITY. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW HIGH DEEP
LAYERED SHEAR AS WITH MOST COLD FRONTS. BUT TOO FAR OUT TO TRUST
THERMODYNAMIC PARAMETERS. KEPT HPC DEWPOINTS AND TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
06Z TUESDAY THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

-SHRA ACROSS N KY AND E OH WILL SLIDE E INTO WV BY 09Z BEFORE
EXITING THE MOUNTAINS SHORTLY AFTER SUNRISE. VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD
CONTINUE THOUGH AS MUCH OF THIS IS FALLING OUT OF A HIGH DECK.

SHRA BECOME MORE ISOLATED IN NATURE THIS MORNING BEFORE PICKING
BACK UP AGAIN ALONG A DEVELOPING FRONTAL BAND OF SHRA AND PERHAPS
A RUMBLE OF THUNDER. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS AND VSBY ALONG THIS AS IT
CROSSES TODAY. SOME QUESTION ON HOW FAST CLEARING OCCURS POST
FRONTAL THOUGH. NONETHELESS...CAA THIS EVE SHOULD ALLOW SOME MVFR
STRATUS TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE N MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KEKN AND
PERHAPS EVEN KCKB. WINDS WILL REMAIN GUSTY BEHIND THE FRONT OUT OF
NW...ON THE ORDER OF 15 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ON THE HIGHER
RIDGES IN THE N MOUNTAINS. THIS THEME WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT ACROSS
THE N WV LOWLANDS AND THE N MOUNTAINS AS WINDS TRY TO SLACKEN LATE
ACROSS NE KY/S WV.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MINOR TIMING DIFFERENCES MAY SHOW UP WITH
FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHRA. EXTENT OF POST FRONTAL STRATUS IN
QUESTION THIS EVENING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 04/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities