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000
FXUS61 KRLX 080234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LINES/CELLS ARE MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS FOR KEEPING
WATER ISSUES AT BAY FOR NOW. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN KEEP THE NECESSITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080234
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1034 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1045PM UPDATE...
FORECAST ON TRACK AS ROUNDS OF SHOWERS WITH A FEW ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE. LINES/CELLS ARE MOVING MUCH QUICKER THAN
PREVIOUS DAYS HOWEVER...WHICH IS GOOD NEWS IN TERMS FOR KEEPING
WATER ISSUES AT BAY FOR NOW. STILL...THE LONGEVITY OF THE CHANCES
FOR RAIN KEEP THE NECESSITY OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 072345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED IN NATURE...CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNCHAINED...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED
POP TIMINGS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 072345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED IN NATURE...CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNCHAINED...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED
POP TIMINGS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 072345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
745 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
745PM UPDATE...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SCATTERED IN NATURE...CONTINUE TO
TRAVERSE THE CWA AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES. SYNOPTIC ASSESSMENT
OF THE ATMOSPHERE IS LARGELY UNCHAINED...HOWEVER...HAVE ADJUSTED
POP TIMINGS BASED ON RADAR TRENDS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL DROP TO THE SOUTHEAST...AND THEN STALL OVER THE
OHIO VALLEY...CONTINUING THE THEME OF SHOWERS WITH ISOLATED TO
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN. WHILE VISIBILITIES CAN VARY IN
STORMS...THE WIND OVER 5KTS SHOULD HELP KEEP THEM UP IN BETWEEN
SHOWERS...AND KEEP THE LOWEST LEVELS MIXED ENOUGH TO PREVENT IFR
CEILINGS.

CHANCES FOR RAIN REMAIN HIGH THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...THUS...PREVAILING SHOWERS...WITH VCTS/CB AT TIMES IS THE
NORM FOR THIS FORECAST. BECAUSE IT BLANKETS THE ENTIRE
PERIOD...MUST KEEP THE CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND CONVECTION TO
VARY...AND MAY NEED TO ADD PERIODS OF NO WEATHER IN LATER
FORECASTS OR AMENDMENTS. NEED TO WATCH BKW CEILING FOR IFR. BRIEF
IFR IN ANY SHOWER OR STORM IS POSSIBLE.

AFTER 00 THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
204 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST TUESDAY NIGHT
AND STALLS OVER EXTREME NORTHER PORTIONS OF WV WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND ECMWF SHOW DIFFERENCES IN THEIR QPF FIELDS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
A WEAK SFC LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ALONG THE FRONT OVER OH MOVING INTO
SOUTHEAST OH AND PORTIONS OF WV BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. THE GFS IS MORE
AGGRESSIVE WITH AN H500 VORTICITY MAX ALONG THIS FEATURE TO ENHANCE
PERIODS OF PCPN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT
CHANCE POPS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND INCREASED POPS TO LIKELY THURSDAY.
EXPECT ACTIVE WEATHER WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WITH
HEAVY RAIN...MOVING MAINLY NORTHEAST...WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER
AROUND 2 INCHES ON THURSDAY...DROPPING TO AROUND 1.77 INCHES BY 12Z
FRIDAY.

THE WEAK LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTHEAST OF THE AREA BY 00A
THURSDAY...LEAVING A QUASI STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE
AREA KEEPING CHANCES FOR PCPN INTO THURSDAY.

ANOTHER BUT STRONGER SFC LOW PRESSURE MOVES QUICKLY EAST FROM OH TO
PA ON THURSDAY...KEEPING THE AREA UNDER A JUICY SOUTHWEST FLOW AND
CHANCES FOR ADDITIONAL RAINFALL.  THIS LOW WILL PUSH THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA
THURSDAY NIGHT. THEREFORE...ALLOWED POPS BACK TO CHANCE ACROSS THE
AREA WITH 50S ALONG THE MOUNTAINS.

TWEAKED PREVIOUS HIGH AND LOW TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.
LOWERED HIGHS ON THURSDAY PER ABUNDANT CLOUDINESS AND PCPN EXPECTED.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE LOWER GREAT LAKES REGION
FRIDAY...PUSHING A DIFFUSE FRONTAL BOUNDARY FURTHER SOUTH. THIS WILL
BRING DRIER CONDITIONS MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTH FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
NIGHT. HOWEVER...ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES WILL CROSS THE AREA
KEEPING THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH CHANCES FOR
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO CONTINUE
MONITORING THE WEATHER CLOSELY EACH DAY DUE TO WATER CONCERNS.

WENT WITH WPC THINKING WITH FEW TWEAKS ON POPS...TEMPERATURES AND
SKY COVER THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...JB/ARJ
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 PM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT... STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY. FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE ACTIVE WEATHER CONTINUES IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. COLD
FRONT...AT 1730Z STRETCHED ACROSS NE IN SOUTHWEST INTO CENTRAL
IN. OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...PREFRONTAL SHOWERS AND ISOLD STORMS
STARTING TO KICK OFF IN THE WARM HUMID UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. AREA
OF HEAVIER RAIN/STORMS CURRENTLY ALONG THE OHIO RIVER AREA...AIDED
BY LLJ...WHICH WILL SPREAD EASTWARD INTO OUR AREA THIS EVENING.
NEAR TERM MODELS SUCH AS THE HRRR SHOW THIS AREA OF PRECIPITATION
WEAKENING AS IT APPROACHES OUR REGION...BUT WILL DEFINITELY BE A
SPOT TO WATCH...AND APPEARS AS THOUGH WILL MOSTLY AFFECT NE KY
COUNTIES...AND OHIO/WV COUNTIES ALONG THE OHIO RIVER.

PW VALUES OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2
INCHES...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY ACROSS INDIANA/WESTERN OHIO
INDICATES PW VALUES AT 1.7 TO 2 INCHES. THIS...COMBINED WITH 30-40
KTS AT LOWER TO MID LEVELS OF ATMOSPHERE...COULD SEE SOME STORMS
THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...MAINLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY
PRODUCE DMG WINDS/DOWNDRAFTS.

BIGGER THREAT AREA WIDE IS THE THREAT OF FLASH FLOODING. WITH
RECENT RAINS...AND A SATURATED GROUND...ANY STORM COULD PRODUCE A
LOCALIZED FLOODING ISSUE. STORMS WILL MOVE WELL...BUT WITH THE
AREA TO REMAIN IN THE MOIST...HUMID ATMOSPHERE...AS FRONTAL
BOUNDARY APPROACHES THEN STALLS OUT NEAR OHIO RIVER AREA...AND
UPPER WAVES CROSSING/ENHANCING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES...A FFA HAS
BEEN ISSUED. DECIDED TO GO AHEAD AND EXPAND THE FFA ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. A COUPLE OF THE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THE POSSIBILITY OF A WAVE MOVING ACROSS THE SOUTH ON
WEDNESDAY...AND WITH RECENT FLOODING IN THOSE AREAS...DECIDED TO
ERR ON THE SIDE OF CAUTION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
18Z TUESDAY THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ACROSS THE REGION...OUT AHEAD
OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
IN VICINITY OF STORMS...WITH MORE WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CONDITIONS
EXPECTED AFTER 09Z WEDNESDAY. ANY STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF STRONG
GUSTY WINDS...PARTICULARLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NE KY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTION COULD VARY FROM CURRENT
FORECAST. WIDESPREAD MVFR CONDITIONS MAY NOT FORM LATE TONIGHT AS
FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY... IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
NEAR THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR
LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
843 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 071243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
843 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
843 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071243
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
843 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...ADDED A SLIGHT CHANCE OF POPS ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO THIS MORNING AS SHOWERS ARE ALREADY DEVELOPING.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES WERE NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB/SL
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 071043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 071043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 071043
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
643 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DUE TO THE WET GROUND WILL POST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH LATE TODAY
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING...FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE COUNTIES. AS THE
EPISODE UNFOLDS MAY BE ABLE TO SUBTRACT...OR EVEN...ADD COUNTIES.
COME WEDNESDAY...WE CAN ONLY HOPE...THERE MAYBE TOO MANY
SHOWERS/CLOUDS AROUND...SO THE 1 TO 2 HOUR RAIN RATES ARE
LOWER...ALLOWING STREAMS TO HANDLE THE RUNOFF. BUT COULD NOT COUNT
ON THAT.

OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS. EVERY
FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE. THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT
FIRST GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING
ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS
INCREASING. 88D VAD HERE AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE
GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF
THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW. THE DEEPER VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW
SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED
THE WARM AIR ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A
RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL
HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES
LATER TODAY INTO THIS EVENING. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON
NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE
NOT THAT QUICK. MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH
LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND HOPE WEAKENING
IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT. DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS IN
LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE
OHIO RIVER COUNTIES. HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS
THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT
INTO WEDNESDAY EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES. HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES SEPARATED BY DRY
PERIODS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
THE THICKER FOG HAS REMAINED MOSTLY IN THE DEEPER MOUNTAIN
VALLEYS...MAINLY E AND S OF CRW OVERNIGHT...AS THE BOUNDARY LAYER
WINDS INCREASED.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION HAS FORMED A FEW RENEGADE SHOWERS W OF HTS
BEFORE DAWN. WILL INSERT A SHOWER POSSIBLE HTS AND PKB THIS
MORNING...COULD NOT COMPLETELY RULE OUT THUNDER.

STILL HARD TO TIMING ON THE PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES. DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL
TRENDS. HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO
12Z WEDNESDAY...WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS. DESPITE BEING
SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN
ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN
18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND
FOG AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>032-036>040-
     046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 4 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
     WEDNESDAY EVENING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 070758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARMER BREEZES TODAY. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST TONIGHT...
STALLING NEAR OHIO RIVER WEDNESDAY.  FRONTAL OSCILLATES NORTH AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THEN SOUTH AGAIN THURSDAY.  FLASH FLOOD CONCERNS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERNIGHT SHOWERS EXITED OUR NE COUNTIES PAST FEW HOURS.
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG FORMED BY 03Z IN THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. AT FIRST
GLANCE...IT LOOKED IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO.
HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER AND 925 MB FLOW WAS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE
AT RLX WAS 15 KNOTS WHEN WE BEGAN THE GRAVEYARD SHIFT...IT INCREASED TO
20 KNOTS BY 06Z. SO BACKED OFF THE FOG FOR AREAS W-N OF CRW.  THE DEEPER
VALLEYS E AND S OF CRW SHOULD STILL HAVE FOG TO GREET THE DAWN.

DO NOT HAVE A GREAT FEEL ON HOW TODAY UNFOLDS. AM CONCERNED THE WARM AIR
ADVECTION IN THE 925 TO 850 MB LAYER MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER EARLY THIS
MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES...WILL HAVE SOME 20/30 POPS FOR THAT.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES LATER
TODAY INTO THIS EVENING.  DID GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.
HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM...GFS...ECMWF WERE NOT THAT QUICK.  MAY HAVE MORE CELLULAR
CONVECTION AT FIRST...WITH LARGER CLUSTERS MOVING IN 00Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...AND
HOPE WEAKENING IN RAIN RATES DURING THE NIGHT.  DID INCLUDE SOME GUSTY WINDS
IN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING CONVECTION IN SOUTHEAST OHIO AND THE OHIO RIVER
COUNTIES.  HAVE DEW POINTS AROUND 70 IN THE LOWLANDS THIS EVENING.

WE ARE STILL CONCERNED ABOUT THE FLASH FLOOD HAZARD FOR TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY
EVENING. WILL CONTINUE IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL AND WILL CONTINUE
TO CONTEMPLATE FLASH FLOOD WATCHES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A MEANDERING FRONT WILL KEEP THE SHORT TERM ACTIVE. MODELS ALL HAVE
SLIGHTLY DIFFERENT TIMING AND PLACEMENT OF THIS FRONT AS IT MEANDERS
ACROSS THE AREA IN RESPONSE TO SEVERAL WAVES MOVING ALONG IT. TO
START THE PERIOD THE FRONT SHOULD BE JUST TO THE WEST OF THE OHIO
RIVER. WHILE CONVECTION WILL SINK SE THROUGH THE CWA ON
WEDNESDAY...THE FRONT LOOKS TO ACTUALLY LIFT NORTH AS A WEAK SURFACE
WAVE MOVES ACROSS IL/IN. HAVE A LULL IN THE POPS...ALTHOUGH STILL
CARRYING SLIGHT CHANCE...ON WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS THE FRONT REMAINS TO
THE NORTH.

AS THE SURFACE WAVE PASSES TO OUR NORTH THURSDAY...THE FRONT WILL
SINK BACK IN THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND LIKELY WASH OUT ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA THURSDAY NIGHT. SOME UNCERTAINTY HERE AS THE NAM LOOKS
TO ACTUALLY CLEAR THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. THE LOWER RESOLUTION GFS AND ECMWF
ARE FAIRLY MUDDY THROUGH THIS TIME...BUT DO HINT AT THE FRONT
AT LEAST MAKING IT INTO SOUTHERN CWA.

HAVE POPS BEGINNING TO INCREASE AGAIN TOWARD EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AS
THE NEXT SURFACE WAVE ORGANIZES TO OUR WEST. IN RESPONSE THE FRONT
WILL SHARPEN AND DRIFT BEGIN DRIFTING BACK NORTH BY THE END OF THE
PERIOD.

PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES HANGOUT IN THE 2 INCH RANGE ALONG THE
FRONT WEDNESDAY. PWATS DIP INTO THE 1.5 INCH RANGE WEDNESDAY NIGHT
AS THE FRONT LIFTS FARTHER NORTH...BUT THEN INCREASE BACK TO AROUND
2 INCHES THURSDAY AS THE FRONT SINKS THROUGH. THIS SPELLS ROUNDS OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS WITH DOWNPOURS LIKELY IN THUNDERSTORMS AND
STRONGER SHOWERS. ALSO HAVE UPPER RIDGE BUILDING THROUGH THE PERIOD
WHICH SHOULD SLOW DOWN CELL MOVEMENT SOME. THIS SPELLS POTENTIAL
WATER ISSUES...AND DEBATED AN AREA WIDE FLASH FLOOD WATCH. HOWEVER
WITH UNCERTAINTY IN EXACT PLACEMENT AND HEAVY RAIN COMING IN WAVES
SEPARATED BY DRY PERIODS...WILL OPT TO EXPAND HWO MENTION UNTIL
CONFIDENCE INCREASES.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS
AT 925 MB.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  DID
GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.  HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THURSDAY..WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS
AT 925 MB.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  DID
GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.  HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THURSDAY..WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS
AT 925 MB.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  DID
GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.  HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 070549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THURSDAY..WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS
AT 925 MB.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  DID
GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.  HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 070549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
137 AM EDT TUE JUL 7 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THURSDAY..WITH FRONTAL
BOUNDARY IN THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
EVERY FOG NIGHT IS UNIQUE.  THICK VALLEY FOG ALREADY FORMED IN THE DEEPER VALLEYS
OF SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA...MOSTLY S AND SE OF CRW. IN EARLIER TONIGHT...IT LOOKED
IDEAL FOR FOG DEVELOPING/SPREADING ELSEWHERE TOO. HOWEVER...BOUNDARY LAYER
AND 925 MB FLOW IS INCREASING.  88D VAD HERE AT RLX HAS INCREASED TO 20 KNOTS
AT 925 MB.  WILL BACK OFF ON THE FOG FOR THE OHIO VALLEY AND EVEN CRW.

THE WARM AIR ADVECTION MAY FORM A RENEGADE SHOWER 12Z TO 15Z IN THE OHIO
VALLEY COUNTIES...BUT POP TOO LOW FOR TAF INSERTION.

STILL HARD TO TIME PREFRONTAL CONVECTION INTO THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES.  DID
GO A BIT EARLIER...BASED ON NEAR TERM MODEL TRENDS.  HOWEVER...BOTH 00Z NAM AND 00Z
GFS WERE NOT THAT QUICK.

WILL TRANSITION MORE TO MULTIPLE LAYERS CLOUDS AND SHOWERS 03Z TO 06Z WEDNESDAY...
WITH A FEW EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS.  DESPITE BEING SOUTH OF FRONT...WIDESPREAD
VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES FIGURED...LOWER IN ANY HEAVIER PCPN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: COVERAGE OF FOG 06Z TO 12Z TUESDAY COULD VARY. TIMING
OF CONVECTIVE ROUNDS ARRIVING BETWEEN 18Z TODAY AND 00Z TONIGHT IN THE WESTERN
LOWLANDS COULD VARY.

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS NEAR THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG
AT NIGHT IN THE MUGGY AIR.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...KTB/26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070210
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SO THE CHANCES
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...HAS
BEEN INCREASED AS WELL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AT PKB...AND IS QUESTIONABLE AT HTS DUE
TO LACK OF RAIN TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING WILL LIKELY VARY. HTS LIFR FOG IS
IN QUESTION.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 070210
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SO THE CHANCES
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...HAS
BEEN INCREASED AS WELL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AT PKB...AND IS QUESTIONABLE AT HTS DUE
TO LACK OF RAIN TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING WILL LIKELY VARY. HTS LIFR FOG IS
IN QUESTION.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 070210
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030PM UPDATE...
PREVIOUS FORECAST IS MAINLY ON TRACK...ALTHOUGH HAVE TWEAKED THE
SKY GRIDS AGAIN AND LOWERED THE POPS TONIGHT. LAST OF THE
CONVECTION ROLLING THROUGH  NORTH CENTRAL WEST VIRGINIA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SO THE CHANCES
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...HAS
BEEN INCREASED AS WELL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AT PKB...AND IS QUESTIONABLE AT HTS DUE
TO LACK OF RAIN TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING WILL LIKELY VARY. HTS LIFR FOG IS
IN QUESTION.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 062319
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AND BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLEARING IN THE FORECAST...EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
WITH THIS THOUGHT...HAVE UPPED THE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SO THE CHANCES
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...HAS
BEEN INCREASED AS WELL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AT PKB...AND IS QUESTIONABLE AT HTS DUE
TO LACK OF RAIN TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING WILL LIKELY VARY. HTS LIFR FOG IS
IN QUESTION.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 062319
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
719 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
730PM UPDATE...
HAVE UPDATED THE SKY COVER OVERNIGHT...AND BELIEVE THERE WILL BE
MORE CLEARING IN THE FORECAST...EVEN OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES.
WITH THIS THOUGHT...HAVE UPPED THE VALLEY FOG POTENTIAL TONIGHT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HAVE INCREASED THE AMOUNT OF CLEARING TONIGHT...SO THE CHANCES
FOR FOG...ESPECIALLY AT TERMINALS WHERE RAIN HAS FALLEN...HAS
BEEN INCREASED AS WELL FOR ALL OF THE RIVER VALLEYS. LIFR
CONDITIONS EXPECTED EXCEPT AT PKB...AND IS QUESTIONABLE AT HTS DUE
TO LACK OF RAIN TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING WILL LIKELY VARY. HTS LIFR FOG IS
IN QUESTION.

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY...
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE DISTURBANCE
GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME AREAS...ACROSS THE
NORTH...SUCH AS AT SITES KCKB AND KEKN...MAY NOT TOTALLY
CLEAR/LOSE THE STRATUS DECK.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z.

AREAS THAT CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SITES. SOME CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 13-14Z
EXPECTED...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061744
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
144 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY UNTIL 18Z TUESDAY...
MVFR STRATUS CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE AREA AS AN UPPER LOW
LINGERS OVER THE AREA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING/LIFTING TO VFR
EXPECTED AFTER 21Z...FROM WEST TO EAST...AS THE DISTURBANCE
GRADUALLY LIFTS OFF TO THE EAST...BUT SOME AREAS...ACROSS THE
NORTH...SUCH AS AT SITES KCKB AND KEKN...MAY NOT TOTALLY
CLEAR/LOSE THE STRATUS DECK.

OTHERWISE...EXPECT BRIEF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN RAIN SHOWERS AND
ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 00Z.

AREAS THAT CLEAR ACROSS THE WEST AND SOUTH TONIGHT WILL LIKELY SEE
IFR FOG DEVELOP AFTER 06Z...WITH MVFR/IFR FOG OR STRATUS ACROSS
MOUNTAINS AND NORTHERN SITES. SOME CLEARING TO VFR AFTER 13-14Z
EXPECTED...WITH A SOUTHWESTERLY WIND DEVELOPING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: DEVELOPMENT AND EXTENT OF FOG AND STRATUS
TONIGHT MAY VARY FROM FORECAST.

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061718
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
THE HUMID AND WET WEATHER CONTINUES IN THIS PERIOD. A FRONT MEANDERS
SLOWLY ABOUT THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. WITH SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST AND A HIGH PRESSURE PARKED OFF OF THE
SOUTHEAST COAST...NOTHING IS IN PLACE TO MOVE THE FRONT OUT OF THE
REGION. THE RESULT WILL BE CONTINUED PERIODS OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH. WITH AMOUNTS IN
EXCESS OF 1.5 INCHES...HEAVY RAIN IN THUNDERSTORMS ARE A DEFINITE
POSSIBILITY. AS PREVIOUS FORECAST DISCUSSED...FRONTAL POSITION WILL
BE KEY TO THOSE LOCATIONS WITH THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT.

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER DOES PLACE THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF THE
COUNTY WARNING AREA IN A MARGINAL THREAT FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
TUESDAY NIGHT. THIS AREA ENCOMPASSES OUR OHIO AND NORTHERN KENTUCKY
COUNTIES. THE THREAT DOES DIMINISH AS THE SUN SETS. HOWEVER...THE
POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL AND GUSTY WINDS WILL NEED TO BE
MONITORED.

THE TREND SHOWS THE HEAVY RAINFALL TO BE CONCENTRATED ACROSS THE
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL AREAS WEDNESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. MAY GET A
BRIEF BREAK FROM PRECIP UNTIL THURSDAY EVENING. HOWEVER...MODELS DO
POINT TO ANOTHER ROUND OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD.

TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE UPPER 70S IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS TO
THE LOWER 80S IN THE LOWLANDS. NIGHTTIME TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED
TO BE IN THE 60S. CLOUD COVER SHOULD HELP TO KEEP THE TEMPERATURES
AT OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A UPPER HIGH LINGERS ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN CONUS TO START THIS
PERIOD. MODELS AGREE WITH UPPER SHORTWAVE SLIDING ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE TO START THE WEEKEND AND ACROSS THE
FORECAST AREA. THIS WILL KEEP THE PATTERN UNSETTLED THROUGH THE
WEEKEND WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH THE GROUNDS ALREADY
SATURATED...WILL HAVE TO KEEP A CONTINUED EYE ON WATER CONCERNS. A
STRONGER WAVE WILL SLIDE ACROSS THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND BEGIN TO
BREAK DOWN THE SOUTHEAST RIDGE. THIS WILL ONLY BE REPLACED WITH A
TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE STORMY PATTERN LOOKS TO BE
MAINTAINED INTO NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

ANY SHOWER OR STORM WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY DOWNPOURS AS
USUAL...WITH PW VALUES PROGGED TO RISE TO AROUND 2 INCHES BY TUESDAY
EVENING ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO/NE KY/ADJACENT WV AREAS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061658
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1258 PM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TO THE EAST TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...STALLING NEAR OHIO
RIVER WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES WERE NECESSARY TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.
MID/UPPER DISTURBANCE CONTINUES TO LINGER ACROSS THE CWA...WITH
CONTINUED SHOWERS/ISOLD THUNDERSTORMS...AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE LINGERING ACROSS THE AREA. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER
ARE OCCURRING ACROSS THE FAR NORTH AND WEST...AND MODELS ARE
CONTINUING TO INDICATE THIS TREND TAKING HOLD LATER THIS
AFTERNOON/EVENING...AS THE WAVE GRADUALLY MOVES OFF TO THE EAST.
FAR NORTHEAST ZONES MAY NOT SEE MUCH CLEARING TONIGHT...AND
CONTINUED TO KEEP A MOSTLY CLOUDY SKY OVERNIGHT ACROSS THAT AREA.
ELSEWHERE...PARTICULARLY WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PARTS OF THE
CWA...SHOULD SEE AT LEAST SOME PARTIAL CLEARING...AND THE
POSSIBILITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT PARTICULARLY IN SHELTERED VALLEYS.

FOCUS ON TUESDAY WILL THEN SHIFT TO AN APPROACHING COLD
FRONT...WHICH IS PROGGED TO BE ACROSS NORTHWEST OHIO/SOUTHERN
INDIANA BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL GRADUALLY INCREASE IN COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE
DAY ON TUESDAY OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT...WITH MUCH WARMER
TEMPERATURES...DUE TO CLOUD BREAKS AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OUT
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. GREATEST CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL BE
ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KY...AND ADJACENT WV COUNTIES.
THIS FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL EVENTUALLY STALL OUT SOMEWHERE CLOSE TO
THE OHIO RIVER AREA...WITH UNSETTLED WEATHER CONTINUING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JB/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...JB
LONG TERM...JB/RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061249
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
849 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
845 AM UPDATE...NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS... WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE
PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF
DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS. HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY
TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER STILL EXPECTING
SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS NORTHEASTERN
QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD WATCH TO
EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP WHICH
SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION
DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&


WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/SL
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 061007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL
MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 061007
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
607 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE ALLOWED REMAINDER OF FLASH FLOOD
WATCH TO EXPIRE. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO
PICK UP WHICH SHOULD KEEP RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL
MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF WV.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
LEADING TO SOME FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME
SHOWERS DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY
TO PICK UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO
RIVER...BUT TIMING ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY
DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL
MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY. START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD
LEAD TO DENSE FOG DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY
THROUGH FRIDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT
NIGHT. FOG TIMING TONIGHT MAY VARY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 060825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT...STILL HANGING ONTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THERE. THINK
QPF WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 6 AM IN THIS
AREA. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 060825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
420 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TODAY INTO TONIGHT. COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN
IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY. SE RIDGE TRIES TO BUILD NORTH THIS WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WE ARE STILL DEALING WITH THE PESKY MID AND UPPER LEVEL CLOSED LOW
THAT HAS BROUGHT ROUNDS OF DOWNPOURS OVER THE LAST COUPLE DAYS.
HOWEVER...THE LOW WILL GRADUALLY WEAKEN AND OPEN INTO THE OVERALL
TROUGH THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. THIS WILL EASE QPF AMOUNTS...HOWEVER
STILL EXPECTING SHOWERS WITH DOWNPOURS TODAY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
NORTHEASTERN QUARTER OF CWA. HAVE CANCELLED MUCH OF THE FLASH FLOOD
WATCH THAT WAS IN EFFECT...STILL HANGING ONTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS
THROUGH THE 6 AM EXPIRATION TIME WITH ONGOING SHOWERS THERE. THINK
QPF WILL BE LOW ENOUGH TO NOT NEED AN EXTENSION PAST 6 AM IN THIS
AREA. WITH THE LOW OPENING UP...FLOW WILL BEGIN TO PICK UP AND KEEP
RAINFALL AMOUNTS IN CHECK. WILL STILL MENTION DOWNPOURS IN HWO
THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON THOUGH.

CLOUDS BEGIN TO THIN OUT FROM THE WEST LATER TODAY INTO
TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD SET THE STAGE FOR RIVER VALLEY FOG TONIGHT AS
LOW LEVEL REMAIN MOISTURE LADEN. HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE POPS MOVING BACK
INTO SE CWA VERY LATE TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
SOME TIME WAS DEVOTED TO MONITORING RAIN AND WATER LEVELS ON THIS
GRAVEYARD SHIFT.  YET...IT APPEARS THE COMMON MID SUMMER
DILEMMA IS SETTING UP FOR THIS SHORT TERM PERIOD.  HOW FAR
SOUTH DOES A FRONT GET?  PLUS...DOES THE OVERNIGHT CONVECTION
TUESDAY NIGHT DRIVE THE BOUNDARY...OR FOCUS OF FUTURE CONVECTION...
FURTHER SOUTH?

THE 00Z NAM SOLUTION SEEMS TO HAVE SHIFTED THE FRONTAL CONVECTION
TOO FAR NORTH.  DID NOT MAKE A MAJOR CHANGE TOWARD ITS OUTPUT.
HOWEVER...ON ANOTHER ISSUE...A BIT CONCERNED ABOUT A FEW RENEGADE
SHOWERS FORMING TUESDAY MORNING IN THE TRI STATE AND OHIO VALLEY.
THE NAM SOLUTION HAS BEEN HINTING AT THIS FOR PAST 2 DAYS.  THINKING
IT IS ASSOCIATED WITH LOW LEVEL CONFLUENT PATTERN WITH FASTER 925
TO 850 MB FLOW TO OUR WEST...AND WEAKER FLOW STILL HERE AT 12Z
TUESDAY...PLUS SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION.  SO WILL INCLUDE SOME 20
POPS TUESDAY MORNING IN OUR WESTERN COUNTIES.

IN TERMS OF THE FRONT...THE 00Z GFS SEEMS TO BE A MIDDLE OF THE ROAD
SOLUTION WITH THE 00Z ECMWF BEING A BIT FURTHER SOUTH.  WILL BASE
FORECAST ON THE FRONT REACHING NEAR A CVG TO PKB LINE TOWARD 12Z
WEDNESDAY...THEN BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FM CVG TOWARD CKB DURING
THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

SO WILL CONTINUE WITH THE LIKELY PREFRONTAL CONVECTION POPS REACHING
OUR SE OHIO COUNTIES AFTER 22Z...WITH LIKELY POPS REACHING AS FAR
SOUTH AS GRAYSON-HTS-CRW-SUMMERVILLE LINE OVERNIGHT.

WILL MENTION SOME STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS POSSIBLE IN OUR SE OHIO
AND PKB VCNTY TUESDAY EVENING IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
POTENTIAL...AND A WATER/FLASH FLOOD CONCERN FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL
COUNTIES OVERNIGHT TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT.

THIS WEEKK`S PATTERN FAVORS THE FOCUS OF CONVECTION TO SHIFT MORE
TOWARD OUR NORTHERN AND CETNRAL COUNTIES...COMPARED TO THE SOUTH.

IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURE...HAD TO CUT A FEW DEGREES OFF THE MAXIMUM
FROM MOS GUIDANCE ON TUESDAY DUE TO THE WET VEGETATION. BUT WITH
INCREASING FLOW...STILL THINK MID AND UPPER 80S LIKELY IN THE
LOWLANDS.


&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 060539
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
139 AM EDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL CONTINUE TO SPIN OVER THE REGION AS IT
GRADUALLY OPENS INTO TROUGH LATER TODAY. VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS
WILL LEAD TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EARLY THIS MORNING. SOME SHOWERS
DRIFTING AROUND OUT THERE AS WELL. EXPECT SHOWER ACTIVITY TO PICK
UP BY MID MORNING...ESPECIALLY EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...BUT TIMING
ANY SHOWER/STORM INTO A TAF SITE IS VERY DIFFICULT AS THEY COULD
POP UP ANYWHERE ANYTIME. WENT WITH GENERAL MVFR IN SHOWERS TODAY.
START TO CLEAR OUT TONIGHT...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO DENSE FOG
DEVELOPING LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG/STRATUS TIMING AND DENSITY WILL VARY
THIS MORNING. TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS.

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005-
     006-013>016-018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR KYZ102-
     103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT EARLY THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 060250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 060250
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1050 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION ON THE WANE...BUT KEEP POPS GOING OVERNIGHT AS THE
UPPER LEVEL WAVE OPENS UP AND DRIFTS EAST NORTHEAST. SURFACE
TROUGH ALSO A CONSIDERATION IN THIS EQUATION IN TERMS OF KEEPING
SHOWER CHANCES GOING. THANKFULLY...RAINFALL RATES ARE VERY LIGHT
AREA WIDE EXCEPT FOR A COUPLE OF HEAVIER SHOWERS IN JACKSON COUNTY
WEST VIRGINIA AND OVER IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY. THESE AREAS ARE QUITE
SMALL HOWEVER.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 052346
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
746 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
UPDATE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE TO SLOWLY MOVE IN A
COUNTERCLOCKWISE FASHION THROUGH THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS AND THE
MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. THESE STILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR SLOW MOVING
DOWNPOURS...SO THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE
SOUTHEASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. NO MAJOR CHANGES TO THE POPS THIS
EVENING...BUT THE SKY OVERNIGHT IS AN ISSUE. AS THE MID AND HIGHER
LEVEL CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTING LOW STRATUS TO SET IN

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AS THE SHOWERS AND STORMS DISSIPATE OVER THE NEXT 3-6
HOURS...EXPECT THE MID AND HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE AND LOW
LEVEL STRATUS TO FORM. DEPENDING ON TERMINAL...MVFR OR IFR IS
POSSIBLE HERE. GIVEN THE WET CONDITIONS OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
DAYS...EXPECTING SOME LOWERING AND BOUNCING OF THE VISIBILITIES
FROM IFR TO VFR THROUGH 14Z MONDAY. THE LOWEST CEILINGS WILL OCCUR
FROM 08Z-14Z. FOG IS THE BEST BET AT EKN.

EXPECTING A RETURN OF THE CONVECTION AGAIN MONDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY WILL VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY WITH
THE POTENTIAL FOR LOW STRATUS AND FOG AT NIGHT.

&&


WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 6 AM EDT MONDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 052019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FOG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE THE UPPER LOW LIFTING NORTHWARD AWAY FROM THE AREA
MONDAY NIGHT. THIS SHOULD PROVIDE A BRIEF BREAK IN THE
PRECIPITATION. MESO NAM THEN SHOWS SOME SHOWERS/STORMS MOVING IN
TUESDAY MORNING. OTHER MODELS DO NOT HAVE THIS LINE...BUT TRACING
THE MOISTURE BACK INTO THE MIDWEST SHOWS IT IS CURRENTLY ASSOCIATED
WITH CONVECTION. THIS LENDS SOME CREDENCE TO THE NAM...SO WILL
INTRODUCE SOME POPS TUESDAY MORNING WITH THIS FEATURE.

A COLD FRONT THEN APPROACHES TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY.
MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING NORTHWARD WITH THE STALL POSITION OF
THIS BOUNDARY. WITH MOST OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY WELL NORTH OF THE
REGION...THINK THIS TREND WILL CONTINUE. THEREFORE WILL HEDGE A BIT
IN CASE FUTURE RUNS CONTINUE THIS TREND.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL USE A BLEND OF THE MODELS AND ENSEMBLES FOR THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...AND THEN RELY MORE ON A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND GEFS
ENSEMBLE MEANS FOR THE WEEKEND. WITH A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE
FORECAST AREA...BIG QUESTION IS WHERE WILL IT BE AT ANY PARTICULAR
TIME. FOR NOW...WILL ALLOW THE REMAINS OF THE FRONT TO REMAIN NEAR
THE AREA...PRODUCING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY.

&&


.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051843
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
243 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL
DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS
AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>030-033>040-046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
225 PM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW OPENS INTO TROUGH TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS
IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM MIDWEST LATE
TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
SCT CONVECTION BREAKING OUT OVER SE WV AND SW VA WHERE SOME BREAKS
IN THE CLOUDS IN THE DRY SLOT HAS ALLOWED INSTABILITY TO DEVELOP.
EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THESE TO ONLY INCREASE AS THE AFTN WEARS
ON. THE CENTER OF THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM LOOKS TO TRACK IN THE
VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND FIRST HALF OF
MONDAY. OF CONCERN IS POTENTIAL FOR S TO N TRAINING TOWARD THE WV
MTNS...PARALLEL TO THE FLOW. THINK THE HEAVIEST RAINS WILL FALL
OVER THESE LOCATIONS WITH ANOTHER MAX OVER THE MESO CIRCULATION
COMING OUT OF SE KY AND INTO THE LOWLANDS LATE THIS AFTN AND EVE.
NO CHANGES TO THE WATCH ATTM. WITH THE LOSS OF HEATING...THINK
THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL DECREASE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT AS MID LEVEL DRY AIR WRAPS AROUND FROM THE W.

FOR MONDAY...AFOREMENTIONED UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE
INTO E OH IN THE AFTN. AS SUCH EXPECT SHRA/TSRA TO REDEVELOP AND
EXPAND IN COVERAGE ACROSS N ZONES IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE THE
HIGHEST POPS OVER THE N BY LATE IN THE DAY. EXPECT SOME BREAKS IN
THE CLOUDS ACROSS NE KY/S WV/SE OH AFTER ANY FG AND LOW STRATUS
MIXES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER KY CURRENTLY WILL SLOWLY TRACK NE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE OH RIVER THROUGH MONDAY. AN UPTICK IN
SHRA/TSRA WILL BE THE RULE THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS...WITH
THE GREATEST CONCENTRATION EXPECTED OVER SW VA AND WV MTNS. ANY
SHRA/TSRA WILL CONTAIN DOWNPOURS WITH LOCALIZE IFR CONDITIONS.
OTHERWISE MVFR IN SHRA/TSRA CODED UP.

THE COVERAGE OF SHRA/TSRA WILL WANE AND SHIFT INTO PA BY 06Z. THIS
LEAVES ANOTHER TOUGH AVIATION FCST OVERNIGHT. EXPECT SOME LOW
STRATUS TO DEVELOP WITH PATCHY AREAS OF DENSE FOG WHERE MORE HOLES
IN THE CLOUDS ARE REALIZED. FOR NOW FOLLOWED CLOSE TO GUIDANCE
WITH GENERALLY IFR OR WORSE STRATUS WITH SOME MVFR/IFR VSBY.

THE UPPER LOW WILL OPEN UP INTO A WAVE AND SHIFT INTO NE OH ON
MONDAY. STRATUS AND/OR FOG WILL BE SLOW TO LIFT IN THIS LOW FLOW
MOIST ENVIRONMENT...GENERALLY AFTER 13-14Z. SHRA/TSRA WILL
REDEVELOP IN THE AFTN HEATING...MAINLY N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG/STRATUS TIMING
AND DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051457
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1057 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...UPDATED

1045 AM UPDATE...

EXPANDED THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH A TIER OF COUNTIES N AND W. THE
FIRST BAND OF MODERATE SHRA ARE WORKING THRU NE KY ATTM...WITH
LIGHTER AREAS OF SHRA IN ITS WAKE. AM CONCERNED ABOUT CONVECTION
FIRING UP IN THE DRY SLOT OF THIS SPIRALING UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM
OVER KY. THERE IS ALREADY SOME SUN BREAKING OUT OVER SW VA AND NE
TN...PROBABLY AIDED BY SOME DOWNSLOPING FLOW. HI RES MODELS ARE
TROUBLING WITH CONVECTION LINING UP IN A S TO N
FASHION...ESPECIALLY ALONG AND E OF US 119 AND I79 CORRIDOR LATER
THIS AFTN AND EVE. WITH PWATS NEAR 2 INCHES...THIS WOULD INCREASE
THE FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL OVER THE WATCH AREA.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH
THAT IS CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT
SLOWLY DRIFTING THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE
ON IT GRADUALLY OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA
LATE TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST
WITH THE LOW TRACK INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS
TREND IN OTHER MODELS AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO
THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE
HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S
WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF
HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE
OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE
REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS
FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE
IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR
GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-006-013>016-
     018-024>029-033>038.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ102-103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 051019
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
619 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR GENERALLY THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE CWA FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING OVER TN CURRENTLY WILL GRADUALLY DRIVE
SHOWERS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FROM THE SW. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED
THUNDER ALSO POSSIBLE. EXPECT VFR WITH AN ISOLATED SHOWER POSSIBLE ACROSS
THE WEST...WITH MVFR TO IFR IN THE HEAVIER SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTH AND EAST. FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD
TONIGHT WITH SOME SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST
LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS MAY VARY...COULD GET LOWER
FLIGHT CATEGORIES IN HEAVIEST SHOWERS/STORMS. FOG TIMING AND
DENSITY MAY VARY TONIGHT.

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE
TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR WVZ005-013-015-024>027-033>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR KYZ105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM 11 AM EDT THIS MORNING THROUGH LATE
     TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 050840
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
430 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
CLOSED MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES TODAY. OPENS INTO TROUGH
TONIGHT OR MONDAY AS IT PASSES OVER. COLD FRONT APPROACHES
FROM MIDWEST LATE TUESDAY...COULD STALL/WEAKEN IN VICINITY WEDNESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MAIN WEATHER MAKER FOR THE NEAR TERM IS THE CLOSED 500MB TROUGH THAT IS
CURRENTLY SPINNING OVER TN. MODELS ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT SLOWLY DRIFTING
THE LOW TO THE NE ACROSS KY TODAY. THEY ALSO AGREE ON IT GRADUALLY
OPENING INTO THE MEAN TROUGH AS IT CROSSES CWA LATE TONIGHT INTO
MONDAY. THE NEW 06Z NAM IS A BIT FARTHER WEST WITH THE LOW TRACK
INTO TONIGHT...SO WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR THIS TREND IN OTHER MODELS
AS WELL. BEST CHANCE OF SHOWERS WILL BE TO THE EAST OF THE UPPER LOW
TRACK...SO FOR TODAY THINKING THE HIGHEST RAIN AMOUNTS SHOULD BE IN
THE COAL FIELDS OF SW VA AND S WV...NORTHWARD INTO THE CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON IF HEAVIER SHOWERS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO
WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE LOW...WHICH COULD BRING HEAVIER
SHOWERS INTO THE TRI-STATE REGION AS WELL. THE HRRR IS TRYING TO
SHOW HINTS OF THIS IN ITS FINAL FEW HOURS THIS AFTERNOON...WHILE THE
NAM KEEPS THINGS MORE IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN CWA. WILL GO WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR SOUTHERN CWA INTO THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS FOR
TODAY AND TONIGHT...AND MENTION POTENTIAL FOR EXPANSION OF WATCH
FARTHER NORTH IN HWO.

WITH ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS EAST OF THE OHIO RIVER...TRENDED TOWARD
COOLER GUIDANCE. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE FAR NW CWA WHERE THE THICKER
CLOUDS WILL ARRIVE LAST...SO BUMPED UP TEMPS THERE A DEGREE OR TWO.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
THE WEAKENING MID LEVEL LOW SHOULD BE LIFTING NORTHEAST MONDAY WITH
THE TROF AXIS NEAR THE OHIO RIVER.  ALONG THAT WESTERN TROF
AXIS...HARD TO DETERMINE THE COVERAGE OF THE SHOWERS AND THUS POPS
ALONG ON THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THIS SYSTEM.  DID EXPAND
LIKELY POPS IN MUCH OF WEST VIRGINIA LOWLANDS MONDAY...BUT DID NOT
GO TO THE OHIO RIVER AND WESTWARD.

STILL PICTURING A LULL IN SHOWERS/LOWERING POPS FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST LATE MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT.

00Z NAM TRIES TO FORM EARLY MORNING CONVECTION TUESDAY IN THE OHIO
VALLEY...FORCING APPEARS TO THE INCREASING LOW LEVEL FLOW AND WARM
AIR ADVECTION.  WILL NOT JUMP ON THAT SPECIFIC SOLUTION NOW.  DID
TRY TO INCREASE POPS A BIT FASTER TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND TUESDAY
EVENING AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING MIDWESTERN FRONT.  WITH MORE
INSTABILITY AND TALLER STORMS POSSIBLE...WILL MENTION A WATER/FLOOD
CONCERN IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY NIGHT INTO
WEDNESDAY FOR NORTHERN AND CENTRAL COUNTIES...NOT THE SOUTHEAST.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





000
FXUS61 KRLX 050550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ




000
FXUS61 KRLX 050550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
150 AM EDT SUN JUL 5 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE PULLS DEEPER MOISTURE BACK NORTH SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT EFFECTS THE REGION FROM LATE TUESDAY INTO NEXT
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
730 PM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FRONT WILL SLOWLY SAG THRU SE ZONES THIS AFTN... WITH CATEGORICAL
POPS LOWERING TO ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA THIS AFTN. THE FRONT MAY NOT
ENTIRELY CLEAR SW VA TONIGHT BEFORE STALLING IN RESPONSE OF AN
APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL WAVE. THIS WAVE IS PROGGED TO CLOSE OFF
INTO AN UPPER LOW AS IT TRACKS THRU THE TN VALLEY TOMORROW. THERE
IS REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT ON INTERACTION WITH THE OLD FRONT FOR
AN INCREASE IN SHRA BEGINNING TOWARD DAWN OVER SW VA AND
OVERSPREADING SE WV BY MIDDAY. EXPECT THE SHRA AND SOME
THUNDERSTORMS TO PIVOT TO NW INTO THE C LOWLANDS IN THE AFTN. HAVE
SOME CATEGORICAL POPS OVER SW VA AND SE WV...AND INTO THE C
LOWLANDS LATE. THIS MEANS AN UNSETTLED SUNDAY FOR THESE LOCATIONS
WITH W WV LOWLANDS...NE KY...AND SE OH PROBABLY STAYING DRY THRU
THE AFTN BUT DEALING WITH MID AND HI CLOUDS. TEMPS TONIGHT WERE
FIGURED TO BE COOLEST OVER SE OH AND N WV...WHERE THE DRIER LOW
LEVEL DRY AIR REMAINS. THIS AREA IS EXPECTED TO HAVE THE WARMEST
READINGS SUNDAY THOUGH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL LIFT NORTHWARD SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS. MODELS APPEAR TO BE A LITTLE SLOWER AND
FURTHER WEST THAN PREVIOUS RUNS...SO WILL ADJUST ACCORDINGLY. WITH
PLENTY OF CLOUDS IN MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT...WILL GO ON THE
WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR OVERNIGHT LOWS.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE AREA LATE TUESDAY/TUESDAY
NIGHT...PROVIDING CHANCES OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. WITH SOME
WINDS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TUESDAY NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERN
COUNTIES...WILL GO ON THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE LOWS.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
OPERATIONAL MODELS ALL HAVE A FRONT WAFFLING AROUND THE FORECAST
AREA FOR WEDNESDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. BIG DIFFERENCES HOWEVER WITH
THE TIMING OF THE FRONT SLIPPING SOUTH OF THE REGION ON EITHER LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY...BEFORE RETURNING BACK NORTHWARD. DUE TO LOW
CONFIDENCE ON TIMING OF FEATURES...WILL USE A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND
GEFS ENSEMBLE MEANS BUT NOT BE TOO SPECIFIC WITH TIMING.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
FOG FORMING AT ALL TAF SITES...AND EXPECT IFR TO LIFR THROUGH THIS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. MAY START IMPROVING ACROSS THE SOUTH AROUND
SUNRISE AS SHOWERS MOVE IN. THOSE SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT WILL SLOWLY DRIFT INTO CWA THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.
EXPECT VFR ACROSS THE WEST...WITH MVFR IN RAIN ACROSS THE EAST.
FOG FORMATION IS TRICKY AT END OF TAF PERIOD TONIGHT WITH SOME
SHOWERS AND CLOUDS AROUND...BUT STILL VERY MOIST LOW LEVELS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TONIGHT...MEDIUM SUNDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG AND STRATUS MAY
VARY TONIGHT. ONSET OF SHOWERS SUNDAY MAY BE FASTER THEN
FORECAST.

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...

IFR POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS AND/OR LOW CEILINGS LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
INTO MONDAY.

BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...MZ





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