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000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102331
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
631 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS ARE DECREASING IN COVERAGE THIS EVENING AND WILL
EVENTUALLY JUST TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO EAST INTO
EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE ALREADY WORKING INTO
THE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING AND HTS LOOKS LIKE THEY WILL REMAIN
VFR FOR THE PERIOD. ALL OTHER LOCATIONS WILL SEE MVFR CONDITIONS
OVERNIGHT...EVENTUALLY IMPROVING TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST THROUGH
TOMORROW.

SOME HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH MVFR TO BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR
CONDITIONS SHOULD CONTINUE IN MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WILL
ALSO CONTINUE ALONG RIDGE TOPS WITH DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.
BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL BE OUT OF THE
REGION AND EVEN MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS SHOULD RETURN TO VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER OR POSSIBLY EVEN A BIT
FASTER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
OUR NEXT SYSTEM ARRIVES ON FRIDAY AND IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW
SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY
NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MPK





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102238
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
538 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
530 PM UPDATE...JUST MINOR CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURES BASED ON
CURRENT OBS AND TRENDS. FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER
CHANGES ARE NEEDED AT THIS TIME.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
EST 1HRLY       17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/MPK
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102037
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
337 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY
NIGHT IN THE NORTHWESTERLY UPSLOPE FLOW...WITH LITTLE TO NO
ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. SOME GRADUAL CLEARING EXPECTED
SATURDAY NIGHT...AS HIGH PRESSURE STARTS TO BUILD INTO THE REGION.
THIS WITH ARCTIC AIR MASS IN PLACE...850MB AIR -23C...WILL RESULT IN
RATHER COLD TEMPERATURES...PARTICULARLY WITH SNOWFALL ON THE
GROUND...AND ESPECIALLY IN MOUNTAIN VALLEYS. HAVE KEPT LOW
TEMPERATURES ON SUNDAY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS TO BELOW ZERO. THIS WILL
LIKELY RESULT IN WIND CHILL ADVISORIES SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING...MAINLY ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND THE MOUNTAINOUS
COUNTIES.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO NEXT WEEK. THERE IS A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN
THIS PERIOD BETWEEN THE MODELS...ALTHOUGH THE MODELS THEMSELVES
APPEAR TO HAVE A GOOD RUN TO RUN CONSISTENCY. GFS INDICATING A
CLIPPER SYSTEM MOVING INTO THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY...WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AREA WIDE...AND
A GULF LOW MOVING EAST ALONG THE COAST...AND STAYING WELL EAST OF
THE AREA...EVENTUALLY BECOMING A NOR`EASTER. ECMWF HOWEVER INDICATES
A STRONGER SOUTHERN STREAM SOLUTION...WITH LOW MOVING NORTHEAST OUT
OF THE GULF REGION INTO THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WOULD RESULT IN MORE
OF A WINTRY  MIX SCENARIO TO START EARLY NEXT WEEK...EVENTUALLY
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE LOW AS IT MOVES INTO
NEW ENGLAND. FOR NOW...IN COORDINATION WITH OTHER OFFICES...DID A
GENERAL BROAD BRUSH OF POPS IN THE EXTENDED...WITH PERIODS OF A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT TIMES ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
323 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. SNOW SHOWERS PICK UP AGAIN FRIDAY
AFTERNOON INTO SATURDAY AS ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT PLOWS THROUGH THE
AREA GIVING EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
BRIEF PERIOD OF HIGH PRESSURE SUCCUMBS TO AN ARCTIC FRONT ON
FRIDAY NIGHT. THIS FRONT WILL BRING A RETURN TO THE OMNIPRESENT
SNOW SHOWERS THAT WE HAVE EXPERIENCED MOST OF THIS WEEK. WITH
THESE SHOWERS EXPECT ANOTHER 2 TO 4 INCHES DEPENDING ON SHOWER
PLACEMENT AND TIMING. MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS ARE ONCE AGAIN THE
FAVORED AREAS DUE TO THE TOPOGRAPHY ENHANCEMENT.

TEMPERATURES PLUMMET IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT...IN WHAT LIKELY
WILL BE A WIDESPREAD SUB-ZERO FAHRENHEIT EVENT WITH WIND CHILLS
APPROACHING -30 F IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 102013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY- SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 102013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
313 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY FOR A
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY- SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
DEEP UPPER TROUGH AND CYCLONIC FLOW OF DEEPER WRAP AROUND
MOISTURE FINALLY SHIFT EAST TONIGHT AND THURSDAY.
THUS...IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM WEST TO EAST WILL OCCUR. LOOKS
LIKE MOST OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW IN THE LOW LANDS...OUTSIDE OF A
FEW LINGERING AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING SNOW SHOWERS...WILL
TAPER OFF TO FLURRIES EARLY THIS EVENING. WILL LIMIT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS OF SNOW TONIGHT TO THE MOUNTAINS AND ITS WESTERN
UPSLOPE COUNTIES...RANGING FROM 1 TO 3 INCHES....ESPECIALLY IN THE
HIGHER ELEVATIONS. ANTICIPATE EXPIRING THE WINTER WEATHER
ADVISORY FOR THE LOW LANDS AND SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA AT 6 PM THIS
EVENING. ON THURSDAY...ANY LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS IN THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL END BY EARLY AFTERNOON...WITH JUST LIGHT ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS. EVEN SOME SUNSHINE WILL RETURN TO THE WEST HALF OF
THE AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON. ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE
THOUGH...WITH RATHER FRIGID TEMPERATURES TONIGHT AND VERY COLD
TEMPERATURES CONTINUING THURSDAY...VERY MUCH BELOW NORMAL. GUSTY
WEST WINDS TONIGHT ON THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WILL CONTINUE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY THERE FOR TONIGHT.
OTHERWISE...NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.



&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 101828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
128 PM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

1:00 PM UPDATE. EXPIRED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR KENTUCKY.

10:00 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
18Z WEDNESDAY THRU 18Z THURSDAY...
SNOW SHOWERS WILL SLOWLY BE TAPERING OFF TO FLURRIES FROM WEST TO
EAST FROM LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY THURSDAY MORNING. HIGHLY
VARIABLE CONDITIONS WITH GENERALLY MVFR CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF SNOW
SHOWERS...BUT IFR VSBY IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS. GUSTY WEST WINDS
10 TO 20 KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS ESPECIALLY MOUNTAINS.

FOR TONIGHT...SLOWLY IMPROVING CONDITIONS. VFR CEILINGS REACH
OHIO RIVER BY 07Z...MVFR CEILINGS WITH FLURRIES OVER REMAINING
LOW LANDS. SNOW SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS CONTINUE IN
MOUNTAINS. GUSTY WEST WINDS WINDS CONTINUE RIDGETOPS WITH
DIMINISHING WINDS ELSEWHERE.

AFTER 12Z...VFR SCT-BKN VFR STRATOCU SPREADING EAST TO A CKB-CRW
LINE BY 18Z...SNOW SHOWERS TAPERING OFF WITH GENERALLY MVFR
CEILINGS MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: ENDING OF SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...ALONG
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS...MAY BE SLOWER THAN FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 101517
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1017 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
10 AM UPDATE...INCREASED POPS THIS MORNING OVER SOUTH AND WEST
PORTIONS OF AREA PER RADAR/OBS AND HI RES MODEL VORT MAX MOVING
ACROSS THAT AREA. ANOTHER VORT MAX OVER CENTRAL OHIO WILL SWEEP
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON....AND
INCREASED POPS THERE. BEHIND THIS SECOND VORT MAX...BACK EDGE OF
DEEPER MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT SNOW SHOWERS SHIFT RAPIDLY EAST
INTO THE MOUNTAINS BY EVENING....WITH LINGERING FLURRIES IN THE
LOW LANDS. GENERAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AROUND AN INCH STILL LOOK
GOOD...WITH THE TYPICAL LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY NARROW SNOW
BAND. NO CHANGES TO HEADLINES.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 18 HOURS...KEEPING
MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WERE ADDED MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY THAT BECOMES NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM/JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 101048
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
548 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
600 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 18 HOURS...KEEPING
MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN
HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS
PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN OHIO THIS AFTERNOON...AS
A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT. TEMPO
GROUPS FOR IFR CONDITIONS WERE ADDED MIDDAY INTO THIS AFTERNOON
WHEN SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO BE MOST NUMEROUS.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W FLOW ALOFT TODAY THAT BECOMES NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN THIS AFTERNOON.
IFR CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 101003
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
503 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A POTPOURRI OF CHANGES NEEDED TO ADVISORIES BASED ON SNOW SHOWERS
PERSISTING INTO OR REGENERATING THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND LINGERING INTO THU IN THE MOUNTAINS. THE HIGHEST
MOUNTAINOUS TERRAIN WILL NEED A WIND CHILL ADVISORY OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO THU MORNING.

THE AREA REMAINS UNDER A DEEP UPPER LEVEL L/W TROUGH MOVING
SLOWLY EWD THROUGH THE EASTERN U.S. IT WILL SLOWLY START TO LIFT
OUT TONIGHT. THIS TROUGH HAS BECOME LARGELY DEFINED BY A
NEGATIVELY TILTED AXIS THAT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
IT..AND DIURNAL HEATING...ARE LIKELY TO FILL THE RADAR SCOPE WITH
A POPCORN PATTERN OF NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS BY THIS AFTERNOON IN
THE NEARLY AUTO CONVECTIVE LOW LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.

OTHERWISE UPSLOPE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO FAVOR SNOW SHOWERS IN AND
NEAR THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

BLENDED IN A COMBINATION OF NAM...RUC AND LAMP TEMPERATURES AND
DEW POINTS TODAY...AND THEN BIAS CORRECTED MET/MAV FOR LOW
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. WINDS WERE DERIVED FROM THE NAM USING THE
RUC METHOD FOR GUSTS...OFF WHICH WIND SPEEDS WERE MODULATED.

WITH ALL OF THIS IN MIND...THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW IS
LEFT TO EXPIRE AT 1 PM FOR THE NE KY COUNTIES...BUT EXTENDED
ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE LOWLAND COUNTIES AND SW VA UNTIL 6 PM
TONIGHT...AND IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY.
FURTHER...THE ADVISORY WAS EXTENDED UNTIL 6 PM THURSDAY FOR THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES OF POCAHONTAS AND RANDOLPH COUNTIES
WHERE A WIND CHILL ADVISORY WAS HOISTED FOR OVERNIGHT TONIGHT INTO
THURSDAY MORNING FOR WIND CHILLS AS LOW AS -20C.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. INCREASED SNOW AMOUNTS FROM 1 TO 4.5
INCHES ALONG THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS FOR THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ037>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
     WIND CHILL ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EST
     THURSDAY FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 100603
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
103 AM EST WED FEB 10 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
DEEP UPPER LEVEL TROUGH LIFTS OUT OF THE AREA THURSDAY FOR A BRIEF
LULL IN THE SNOW SHOWERS. TROUGH RE-ESTABLISHES FRIDAY-SATURDAY
WITH RETURN OF SNOW SHOWERS AND EVEN COLDER WEATHER.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
100 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LARGE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH REMAINS OVER THE AREA NEXT 24
HOURS...KEEPING MVFR CONDITIONS COMMON IN SNOW SHOWERS. IFR
CONDITIONS AT TIMES IN HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WHICH ARE MOST LIKELY
IN THE MOUNTAINS THIS PERIOD...BUT ALSO ACROSS NRN WV AND ERN
OHIO WED AFTERNOON...AS A SHORT WAVE TROUGH MOVES THROUGH WITHIN
THE LARGER SYSTEM.

CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON ACCOUNT OF THE TIMING OF THE SNOW
SHOWERS AND THE HIGHLY VARIABLE CONDITIONS AS A RESULT.

SFC FLOW WILL BE W TO SW AND A BIT GUSTY AT TIMES BENEATH LIGHT TO
MODERATE W TO NW FLOW ALOFT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC
TAF FORECAST. IN PARTICULAR...SHOW SHOWERS UNDER THE UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH ARE LIKELY TO DOT THE RADAR LIKE POPCORN WED AFTERNOON. IFR
CONDITIONS CAN EASILY OCCUR BENEATH ANY OF THESE SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY. IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE AT TIMES FRIDAY
NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100311
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1011 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WV IN
RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX. AT THE 03Z UPDATE HAVE REDUCED ALL TAF
SITES TO IFR AND THEY WILL STAY THIS WAY PAST 12Z. CIGS 1 TO 2
THOUSAND FEET AND VIS 1 TO 3 MILES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN
DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  WED 02/10/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WV IN
RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX. AS THIS AREA PASSES THE TAF SITES
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCE TO IFR BRIEFLY. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOR CIGS /1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET/ AND VIS /1 TO 3
MILES/.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES
OBSERVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN
DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WV IN
RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX. AS THIS AREA PASSES THE TAF SITES
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCE TO IFR BRIEFLY. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOR CIGS /1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET/ AND VIS /1 TO 3
MILES/.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES
OBSERVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN
DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 100023
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
723 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
715 PM UPDATE...
UPDATED THE GRIDS TO REMOVE THE WINTER STORM WARNING FOR THE 10
COUNTIES IN THE NORTHEAST. THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS STILL
VALID UNTIL 1 PM TOMORROW.

AT 00Z A SNOW BURST IS MOVING THROUGH CENTRAL WV. AS IT MOVES OVER
OBSERVATION LOCATIONS VISIBILITIES ARE BEING REDUCED TO 1 MILE
AND A QUICK ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS POSSIBLE. ANOTHER AREA OF SNOW
IS SHOWING UP OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO BUT ACCUMULATIONS DON/T SEEM AS
GREAT. WILL CONTINUE TO WATCH THE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVERNIGHT. AT
THIS TIME NO FORECAST UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT
FUSE WARNING EARLIER THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR
HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF
NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS HAVE INCREASE ACROSS CENTRAL WV IN
RESPONSE TO THE VORT MAX. AS THIS AREA PASSES THE TAF SITES
VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCE TO IFR BRIEFLY. WILL KEEP
PREDOMINATE MVFR FOR CIGS /1 TO 2 THOUSAND FEET/ AND VIS /1 TO 3
MILES/.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY
BECOME MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES
OBSERVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN
DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...FB/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 092121
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
415 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...

CONTINUED UNSETTLED THROUGH THURSDAY UNDER A LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ALSO...TURNING EVEN COLDER WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
ANOTHER ARCTIC FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AFTER ADDING WIRT AND RITCHIE COUNTIES TO THE SHORT FUSE WARNING EARLIER
THIS MORNING...NO MAJOR CHANGES IN OUR HEADLINES IN THIS PROLONG 48 HOUR PLUS
EPISODE. THE ONE CHANGE OF NOTE...WAS TO DELAY THE ENDING TIMES ON WEDNESDAY.

STILL HAVE THE DEEPEST STORM TOTAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...WITH THE SECONDARY MAX ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR FROM GRAFTON
TO PARKERSBURG/MARIETTA TO ATHENS. THESE STORM TOTAL SNOWS ARE FOR THE
WHOLE EPISODE THAT STARTED MONDAY NIGHT...SO 48 HOURS PLUS...IN DURATION.

OF COURSE...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...IN CONTRAST TO OUR JANUARY STORM...
THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM. ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...THE FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

THE 500 MB VORT HAS INCREASE AREAL COVERAGE OF THE SNOW SHOWERS AFTER 18Z
IN SOUTHERN OHIO AND SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  ACCUMULATIONS DURING
THE DAY UNDER THAT AREA...HAVE BEEN MOSTLY AN INCH OR LESS THROUGH 20Z.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT
ACCUMULATIONS IN THE ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANY ROUND COULD LEAVE A HALF INCH
TO AN INCH OF FLUFF.

LOWERED MINIMUM TEMPERATURE TO AROUND 5 ABOVE ZERO...AND LOWERED BKW OVER THE
SOUTHERN PLATEAU TO 14 DEGS BASED ON 850 TEMPS OF MINUS 15C.

TEMPERATURES STRUGGLE TO RISE AFTER SUNSET DURING 12 TO 15Z WEDNESDAY IN THE
COLD POOL. HAVE MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE NO HIGHER THAN 10 DEGS AT SNOWSHOE ON
WEDNESDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...

MODELS SHOWING DEEPER MOISTURE PULLING OUT WEDNESDAY EVENING...BUT
COLD AIR IN THE LOW LEVELS AND NORTHWEST FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO
CREATE SOME LIGHT SNOW THROUGH THURSDAY OR THURSDAY NIGHT. SEVERAL
INCHES OF SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS CAN BE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME
PERIOD.

BY FRIDAY...MODELS DISAGREE ON A DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE AREA.
ECMWF...NAM...AND CANADIAN ARE DEVELOPING THE SYSTEM MORE OVER THE
REGION...WHILE THE GFS AND SREF ARE MORE SUPPRESSED TO THE SOUTH
WITH THE SYSTEM. WILL STAY CLOSE TO THE CURRENT FORECAST WITH CHANCE
POPS UNTIL MODELS AGREE ON A SOLUTION.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...

ARCTIC FRONT THIS WEEKEND...WILL BRING IN A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD
AIR...ALONG WITH LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS BACK INTO THE FORECAST.
OVERALL...ONLY LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS FIGURED FOR SATURDAY...AND MAINLY
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS IN FAVORED UPSLOPE REGIONS. WITH THE VERY COLD
AIR...EXPECT A RATHER LIGHT FLUFFY SNOW OVER THE WEEKEND. BASED ON
TIMING OF THE FRONT...COULD BE FALLING TEMPERATURES EARLY ON
SATURDAY...BEFORE BECOMING SOMEWHAT STEADY DURING THE DAY.

SATURDAY NIGHT LOOKS TO BE QUITE COLD ACROSS THE REGION...WITH A
GRADUALLY CLEARING SKY...AND -24 AIR AT 850MB IN PLACE. WENT BELOW
GUIDANCE ACROSS THE CWA...PARTICULARLY ACROSS MOUNTAINOUS VALLEYS
SUCH AS AT KEKN.

BRIEF HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER CLIPPER
SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE OHIO VALLEY REGION BY EARLY TO MID NEXT WEEK.
THIS LOOKS TO BE A MOSTLY SNOW EVENT...ALTHOUGH THERE COULD BE A
BRIEF PERIOD OF A RAIN SNOW MIX ACROSS PARTS OF THE LOWLANDS.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 VORT IN SRN
OHIO AT 18Z...TO SWING THROUGH WV 18Z TO 00Z...REACHING CENTRAL
WV MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE.

HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN TO OVC AND
VSBY 3 TO 45 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AREAS OF IFR MOSTLY IN
VSBY BLOW 3 MILES.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY BECOME
MORE COMMON ESPECIALLY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES OBSERVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE
VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IN DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUNTAINS INTO
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 091821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED WIRT AND RITCHIE TO THE EXISTING WARNING SINCE THOSE
COUNTIES HAVE LOWER WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA COMPARED TO
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

DEEPEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
FOR SEVERAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...RATHER THAN ENDING AT 7 AM.

TOTALS OVER 36 TO 48 HOURS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SECONDARY MAX IN SNOW FIGURED MOSTLY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
IN WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN ROUTE 50 AND NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...MOSTLY 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FROM THE PREDAWN HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO PBZ
AREA...BUT ANOTHER 500 VORT MAX IN SOUTHERN OHIO SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL WV LATE TODAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.

OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE WAS. INSTEAD...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.
OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE. BUT RATHER ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN
MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 VORT IN SRN
OHIO AT 18Z...TO SWING THROUGH WV 18Z TO 00Z...REACHING CENTRAL
WV MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE.

HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN TO OVC AND
VSBY 3 TO 45 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AREAS OF IFR MOSTLY IN
VSBY BLOW 3 MILES.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY BECOME
MORE COMMON ESPECIALLOY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES OBSURVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE
VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IUN DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUTNAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPCLY VCNTY EKN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-017-019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB





000
FXUS61 KRLX 091821
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 PM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED WIRT AND RITCHIE TO THE EXISTING WARNING SINCE THOSE
COUNTIES HAVE LOWER WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA COMPARED TO
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

DEEPEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
FOR SEVERAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...RATHER THAN ENDING AT 7 AM.

TOTALS OVER 36 TO 48 HOURS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SECONDARY MAX IN SNOW FIGURED MOSTLY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
IN WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN ROUTE 50 AND NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...MOSTLY 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FROM THE PREDAWN HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO PBZ
AREA...BUT ANOTHER 500 VORT MAX IN SOUTHERN OHIO SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL WV LATE TODAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.

OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE WAS. INSTEAD...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.
OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE. BUT RATHER ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN
MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
KEPT CONFIDENCE AT LOW...SINCE TRYING TO TIME THE AREAS OF
ENHANCED SNOW SHOWERS/LOWER VSBY IS DIFFICULT BEYOND 3 TO 6 HRS.

CLOUD TOPS WERE COOLING IN RESPONSE TO THE 500 VORT IN SRN
OHIO AT 18Z...TO SWING THROUGH WV 18Z TO 00Z...REACHING CENTRAL
WV MOUNTAINS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY. SO AREAL COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS
SHOULD INCREASE IN RESPONSE.

HAVE WIDESPREAD MVFR WITH CEILINGS 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN TO OVC AND
VSBY 3 TO 45 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS...WITH AREAS OF IFR MOSTLY IN
VSBY BLOW 3 MILES.

OVERNIGHT...IN THE COLDER AIR...CEILINGS NEAR 1 THSD FT MAY BECOME
MORE COMMON ESPECIALLOY OVER HIGH TERRAIN...WITH RIDGES OBSURVED.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY. TAF VSBY PROBABLY MORE
VARIABLE THAN INDICATED IUN DETERMINISTIC TAF FORECAST.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS LINGER OVER WV MOUTNAINS INTO
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...SPCLY VCNTY EKN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-017-019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB




000
FXUS61 KRLX 091649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1149 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADDED WIRT AND RITCHIE TO THE EXISTING WARNING SINCE THOSE
COUNTIES HAVE LOWER WATCH/WARNING CRITERIA COMPARED TO
COUNTIES FURTHER NORTH AND EAST.

DEEPEST SNOW ACCUMULATIONS STILL LIKELY OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAINS...AND WILL EXTEND THE ADVISORY INTO MUCH OF WEDNESDAY
FOR SEVERAL WV MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...RATHER THAN ENDING AT 7 AM.

TOTALS OVER 36 TO 48 HOURS COULD NEAR A FOOT IN THE HIGH TERRAIN.
SECONDARY MAX IN SNOW FIGURED MOSTLY ALONG THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR
IN WEST VIRGINIA...AND THEN ROUTE 50 AND NORTH IN SOUTHEAST
OHIO...MOSTLY 5 TO 9 INCH RANGE SINCE LAST NIGHT.

THE HEAVIEST SNOWS FROM THE PREDAWN HAVE LIFTED NORTH INTO PBZ
AREA...BUT ANOTHER 500 VORT MAX IN SOUTHERN OHIO SWINGS ACROSS
CENTRAL WV LATE TODAY...THEN ACROSS CENTRAL MOUNTAIN COUNTIES THIS
EVENING. BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ARE SEEN BETWEEN THESE SYSTEMS.

OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE WAS. INSTEAD...AS WE HAVE BEEN STRESSING...THIS IS
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES
TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.
OF COURSE...THIS IS NOT AN ORGANIZED STORM...LIKE OUR JANUARY
EPISODE. BUT RATHER ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

WITH THE COLDER TEMPERATURES TONIGHT...FLUFFY SNOW COULD MEAN
MORE EFFICIENT ACCUMULATIONS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTOOK THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TODAY AND THEN
MODERATE W TO NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>016-018-020-024>036.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ037>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010-017-019.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010-017-019.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 091055
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
555 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
545 AM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

445 AM UPDATE...
GIVEN OBSERVED SNOWFALL AND NEW FCST AMOUNTS REMOVING SOME LOW
NEAR TERM MODELS...NEW SNOW TOTALS NECESSITATE UPGRADE TO WARNING
FOR MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...IN CONCERT WITH THAT ALREADY UP
UP STREAM...AND GOING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. REST SAME.

PREV DISCN...
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 SD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN GULF COAST. H85 TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES GET TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. AN ALMOST
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WRN U.S. RIDGE WAS IN PLACE WITH HEIGHTS 2.5 SD
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

THIS SPELLS A COLD FCST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND BENEATH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT
WAS JUST MOVING NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD GET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE WET SNOW
LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THE SHARPLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROADS BENEATH THE SNOW
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WHERE NOT TREATED OR PRE-TREATED.

THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE UNDER THE NOSE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
BAND OF SNOW ACROSS SRN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N-CENTRAL OHIO.
ENHANCED BY REVERSE WARM ADVECTION FROM THE N...THIS BAND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...CONTINUING TO PIVOT FOR A
TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING E OF THE OHIO RIVER.

OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN AND JUST W OF
THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR AUTO CONVECTIVE SOUNDINGS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS
WELL.

USING A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS TODAY AND SHORT TERM
MODELS TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SNOW RATIOS DERIVED FROM
DENDRITIC GROWTH...SNOW AMOUNTS STILL FALL TWO TO FIVE INCHES
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...THE LOW TWO INCH DIFFERENCE BEING IN AND
NEAR OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF SNOW PIVOTING ABOUT THAT
AREA TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THAT SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS IS ALREADY IN EFFECT UPSTREAM
UNTIL NOON TODAY.

ALSO USED A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND THEN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MAV
AND NAM FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ALL AROUND
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. ALSO HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS...PARTICULARLY
IN A DRY SWATH ACROSS ERN KY...SRN WV AND SW VA...FURTHER
DIFFERENTIATING THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE
TODAY...COMPARED WITH AREAS TO THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTOOK THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLED IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES THIS AFTERNOON.

CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SOMEWHAT ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W TODAY AND THEN
MODERATE W TO NW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS ESPECIALLY DURING THE DAY TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090948
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
448 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
445 AM UPDATE...
GIVEN OBSERVED SNOWFALL AND NEW FCST AMOUNTS REMOVING SOME LOW
NEAR TERM MODELS...NEW SNOW TOTALS NECESSITATE UPGRADE TO WARNING
FOR MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES...IN CONCERT WITH THAT ALREADY UP
UP STREAM...AND GOING UNTIL 6 PM TODAY. REST SAME.

PREV DISCN...
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 SD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN GULF COAST. H85 TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES GET TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. AN ALMOST
EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WRN U.S. RIDGE WAS IN PLACE WITH HEIGHTS 2.5 SD
ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

THIS SPELLS A COLD FCST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND BENEATH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT
WAS JUST MOVING NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD GET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE WET SNOW
LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THE SHARPLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROADS BENEATH THE SNOW
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WHERE NOT TREATED OR PRE-TREATED.

THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE UNDER THE NOSE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
BAND OF SNOW ACROSS SRN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N-CENTRAL OHIO.
ENHANCED BY REVERSE WARM ADVECTION FROM THE N...THIS BAND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...CONTINUING TO PIVOT FOR A
TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING E OF THE OHIO RIVER.

OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN AND JUST W OF
THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR AUTO CONVECTIVE SOUNDINGS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS
WELL.

USING A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS TODAY AND SHORT TERM
MODELS TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SNOW RATIOS DERIVED FROM
DENDRITIC GROWTH...SNOW AMOUNTS STILL FALL TWO TO FIVE INCHES
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...THE LOW TWO INCH DIFFERENCE BEING IN AND
NEAR OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF SNOW PIVOTING ABOUT THAT
AREA TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THAT SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS IS ALREADY IN EFFECT UPSTREAM
UNTIL NOON TODAY.

ALSO USED A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND THEN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MAV
AND NAM FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ALL AROUND
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. ALSO HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS...PARTICULARLY
IN A DRY SWATH ACROSS ERN KY...SRN WV AND SW VA...FURTHER
DIFFERENTIATING THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE
TODAY...COMPARED WITH AREAS TO THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>008-011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ009-010.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR WVZ009-
     010.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ083-
     086-087.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-084-085.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-084-085.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090848
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
348 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD AND UNSETTLED TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY UNDER A LARGE MID AND
UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS. ANOTHER ARCTIC
FRONT BRINGS SNOW SHOWERS TO START THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IMPRESSIVE EASTERN U.S. TROUGH OVER THE AREA EARLY THIS MORNING
WITH H5 HEIGHT ANOMALIES 3 SD BELOW NORMAL OVER THE SERN U.S.
INCLUDING THE FL PANHANDLE AND NRN GULF COAST. H85 TEMPERATURE
ANOMALIES GET TO 3 SD BELOW NORMAL IN THAT AREA TONIGHT. AN
ALMOST EQUALLY IMPRESSIVE WRN U.S. RIDGE WAS IN PLACE WITH HEIGHTS
2.5 SD ABOVE NORMAL OVER THE NRN ROCKIES.

THIS SPELLS A COLD FCST TODAY AND TONIGHT WITH NUMEROUS SNOW
SHOWERS AROUND BENEATH THE DEEP UPPER LEVEL LOW. THE ARCTIC FRONT
WAS JUST MOVING NEWD THROUGH CENTRAL WV EARLY THIS MORNING...AND
SHOULD GET THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA FIRST THING THIS
MORNING. GUSTY SNOW SHOWERS ACCOMPANY THE FRONT. THE WET SNOW
LAST EVENING AND OVERNIGHT...AND THE SHARPLY LOWER TEMPERATURES
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL LEAD TO SLICK ROADS BENEATH THE SNOW
THIS MORNING...PARTICULARLY WHERE NOT TREATED OR PRE-TREATED.

THE OTHER NOTABLE FEATURE UNDER THE NOSE EARLY THIS MORNING IS A
BAND OF SNOW ACROSS SRN OHIO ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL S/W
TROUGH PIVOTING AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER N-CENTRAL OHIO.
ENHANCED BY REVERSE WARM ADVECTION FROM THE N...THIS BAND MAY
PERSIST THROUGH MUCH OF THE DAY TODAY...CONTINUING TO PIVOT FOR A
TIME BEFORE FINALLY DRIFTING E OF THE OHIO RIVER.

OTHERWISE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST PERSISTENT IN AND JUST W OF
THE MOUNTAINS GIVEN UPSLOPE FLOW...BUT DIURNAL HEATING BENEATH THE
UPPER LOW WILL MAKE FOR AUTO CONVECTIVE SOUNDINGS IN THE LOWER
LEVELS WHICH WILL ENHANCE SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AS
WELL.

USING A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS TODAY AND SHORT TERM
MODELS TONIGHT...OROGRAPHIC LIFT AND SNOW RATIOS DERIVED FROM
DENDRITIC GROWTH...SNOW AMOUNTS STILL FALL TWO TO FIVE INCHES
BELOW WARNING CRITERIA...THE LOW TWO INCH DIFFERENCE BEING IN AND
NEAR OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH THE BAND OF SNOW PIVOTING ABOUT THAT
AREA TODAY. WILL NEED TO KEEP A KEEN EYE ON THAT SITUATION FOR
POSSIBLE UPGRADE TO A WARNING AS IS ALREADY IN EFFECT UPSTREAM
UNTIL NOON TODAY.

ALSO USED A BLEND OF SHORT AND NEAR TERM MODELS FOR TEMPERATURES
TODAY...AND THEN BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED VERSIONS OF THE MAV
AND NAM FOR LOWS TONIGHT...SLIGHTLY LOWER VALUES ALL AROUND
COMPARED WITH PREVIOUS. ALSO HAVE LOWER DEW POINTS...PARTICULARLY
IN A DRY SWATH ACROSS ERN KY...SRN WV AND SW VA...FURTHER
DIFFERENTIATING THE COVERAGE OF SNOW SHOWERS THERE
TODAY...COMPARED WITH AREAS TO THE N.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 090703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
203 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY. THE LOW STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

A SERIES OF VORTICITY LOBES WILL ROTATE AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE
TROUGH TO KEEP SOME FORCING FOR SNOW SHOWERS WEDNESDAY THROUGH
THURSDAY. WESTERLY FLOW WEDNESDAY VEERS FROM THE NORTHWEST THURSDAY.

NORTHWEST FLOW WILL SET THE PLUME OF MOISTURE FROM LAKE MICHIGAN
RIGHT TOWARDS NORTH OF OUR AREA THURSDAY. IN ADDITION...NORTHWEST
FLOW WILL PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE MOUNTAINS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

CODED FROM ONE TO 2.4 INCHES OF SNOW RANGING FROM SOUTHEAST
OH...EAST INTO THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT. AN
ADDITIONAL INCH OR SO EXPECTED OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS
THURSDAY.

ANOTHER VORTICITY LOBE CROSSES THE AREA FRIDAY UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW
ENHANCING SNOW OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND UPSLOPE SNOW OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND.

USED THE SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM




000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090617
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
117 AM EST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
115 AM UPDATE... SNOW AMOUNTS MAY PUSH HIGH END OF ADV CRIT IN
BAND OF SNOW JUST N OF UPPER LEVEL VORT LOBE ROTATING UP THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY ABOUT UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER NRN OHIO. MADE
POP ADJUSTMENTS FOR THAT ALONG WITH OTHER ADJUSTMENTS TO FINE TUNE
WHEN AND WHERE THE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE MOST NUMEROUS.

MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGHTNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE FCST DURING THE 24 HOUR TAF PERIOD DUE
TO THE VARIABILITY OF CONDITIONS WITH NUMEROUS SNOW SHOWERS
ABOUT.

A VERY COLD AIR MASS OVERTAKES THE AREA OVERNIGHT...AS AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW SETTLES IN OVER THE UPPER OHIO VALLEY. THIS WILL KEEP
SNOW SHOWERS...AND ASSOCIATED IFR CONDITIONS...MOST FREQUENT
ACROSS THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND NRN WV ALTHOUGH...BECAUSE THIS
IS AN UPSLOPE PATTERN...FREQUENT MVFR CONDITIONS WITH IFR AT TIMES
CAN BE EXPECTED DOWN THE WV MOUNTAINS. THIS LEAVES ERN KY AND SRN
WV WITH VFR VSBY MUCH OF THE TIME...BUT ANY SNOW SHOWER OR BAND
CAN BRING A BRIEF PERIOD OF IFR. EVEN THERE...MVFR CIGS WILL BE
PERSISTENT...PERHAPS LIFTING TO MVFR AT TIMES TUE AFTERNOON.

SFC FLOW WILL BE MAINLY FROM THE W...AND BE GUSTY AT
TIMES...MAINLY DURING THE DAY ON TUE. HOWEVER...WINDS WERE GUSTY
AT HTS AS OF 06Z...JUST BEHIND THE ARCTIC FRONT...AND BRIEF GUSTY
WINDS ARE LIKELY TO PROGRESS NEWD ACROSS WV THROUGH EARLY TUE
MORNING...AS THE ARCTIC FRONT MOVES FROM SW TO NE THROUGH THE
STATE. FLOW ALOFT WILL BE LIGHT TO MODERATE W.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   TUE 02/09/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...TRM





000
FXUS61 KRLX 090011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
711 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
700 PM UPDATE...

TRACKING A POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU SE OH AND INTO N WV
AT THIS HR. EXPECT BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS AND GUSTY WINDS AS
THIS MOVES THRU. THIS HAS HAD A HISTORY OF PUTTING DOWN A SLUSHY
HALF INCH TO INCH WITH EVEN SOME EMBEDDED LIGTHNING OBSERVED. THE
TEMP HERE AT THE OFFICE DROPPED FROM 42 TO 33 IN 15 MINUTES TIME
AS THE SQUALL WENT THRU AS HAS HELD NEARLY STEADY SINCE.

QUICK ON ITS HEELS IS ANOTHER POTENT LINE OF SQUALLS MOVING THRU E
KY ATTM. THIS WILL TRACK INTO THE AREA AS THE EVENING PROGRESSES
WITH AGAIN BRIEF WHITEOUT CONDITIONS. BEHIND THAT WE WAIT FOR THE
TRUE CAA TO BE USHERED IN BY A POTENT S/W TROF AND FRONT AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

HAVE REWORKED HOURLY GRIDS INCLUDING POP/TEMP/WX TO REFLECT RADAR
TRENDS. ACCUMULATIONS WERE REWORKED TO ACCOUNT FOR THE CURRENT
SQUALL MOVING THRU AS WELL AS OVERNIGHT PERIOD USING LATEST
NAM/HRRR/GFS. AM CONCERNED AMOUNTS MAY STILL BE TOO LOW OVER
PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N WV LOWLANDS THRU TOMORROW GIVEN AN
EMERGING CONSENSUS ON THE PROLONGED LOCATION OF BETTER FORCING.
WILL WAIT FOR 00Z NEAR TERM MODELS TO ROLL IN BEFORE MAKING ANY
MEANINGFUL CHANGES TO ACCUMULATIONS FOR THOSE AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.1015 AM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SOMEWHAT LOW CONFIDENCE AVIATION FORECAST THRU THE VALID TAF
PERIOD.

A POTENT SQUALL WILL MOVE OVER THE N TAF SITES THRU 02Z WITH BRIEF
WHITEOUT CONDITIONS CORRESPONDING TO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY ALONG WITH
GUSTY WINDS 25 TO 30 KTS. ANOTHER SQUALL WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA
FROM THE W THIS EVENING WITH YET ANOTHER LOWERING OF CONDITIONS
BACK INTO IFR CIGS/LIFR VSBY FOR A TIME. OUTSIDE OF THOSE
BANDS...MAINLY MVFR AND VFR CIGS/VSBY.

THE ACTUAL COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED S/W TROF WILL SWING THRU
GENERALLY AFTER 06Z WITH GUSTY WINDS AND PERHAPS ANOTHER SQUALL.
BEHIND THAT THE COVERAGE IN SHSN WILL INCREASE ESPECIALLY OVER SE
OH AND N WV WHERE A PROLONGED IFR OR WORSE SET UP IS ENVISIONED
THRU TUE AFTERNOON. ELSEWHERE...SOME IFR CONDITIONS IN SCT SHSN
FOR S TERMINALS BEHIND THE FRONT WILL CARRY THRU TUE MORNING WITH
PERHAPS MORE OF A MVFR/IFR SHSN REGIME TAKING HOLD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND EXTENT OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW
SHOWERS OVERNIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 TUE
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-
     067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 082141
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
441 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
ARCTIC FRONT CROSSES TONIGHT. UNSETTLED/COLDER IN ITS WAKE TUESDAY
AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF
SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
OTHER THAN ADJUSTING THE TIME PERIODS FOR THE CHANGE TO ALL SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE LOW LANDS TONIGHT...AND THE MOST LIKELY TIME PERIODS
THEREAFTER FOR SNOW SHOWERS AND THUS ACCUMULATIONS...NOT TOO MUCH
CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECAST WHEN IT COMES TO FINAL SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE DAY TUESDAY. ONE THING IS TO SLOW THE
ARCTIC FRONT TONIGHT JUST A BIT PER MODEL CONSENSUS. AHEAD OF THIS
FRONT...LOW LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND EVEN PEEKS OF SUNSHINE HAVE
ALLOWED TEMPERATURES TO REACH THE 40S IN MANY LOW LAND SPOTS...BUT
WITH AIR ALOFT QUITE COLD...STILL WET SNOW OUTSIDE THE MOUNTAINS MAY
BE MIXED IN WITH THE RAIN SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...AND IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAINLY SNOW SHOWERS. NEVERTHELESS...SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING MAINLY CONFINED TO THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS
OF THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TONIGHT...HAVE MINOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
LOW LANDS GIVEN THE DELAY OF THE COLDER AIR AND NIGHT TIME LOWS NOT
THAT FAR BELOW FREEZING...GENERALLY AROUND AN INCH OR SO...WITH 1 TO
4 INCHES IN THE MOUNTAINS. FOR TUESDAY...POST FRONTAL SNOW SHOWERS
WIDESPREAD WITH UPPER DISTURBANCES ROTATING AROUND THE MEAN UPPER
TROUGH TO OUR WEST. MODELS INDICATE THAT THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF
THE AREA WILL THE MAIN TARGET FOR THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS...ESPECIALLY
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...WHERE DAY TIME ACCUMULATIONS WILL RANGE FROM 1
TO 2INCHES LOW LANDS TO 2 TO 4 INCHES NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THIS WILL
MAINLY BE IN THE MORNING BEFORE THE STRENGTHENING FEBRUARY SUN TAKES
EFFECT. LOOK FOR HIGHS TUESDAY TO STAY BELOW FREEZING.1015 AM UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LARGE L/W UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE AREA TUE NT AND
WED...STARTS TO LIFT OUT OF THE AREA WED NT AND THU.

ONE IN A SERIES OF VORT LOBES ROTATING AROUND THE BASE OF THE
TROUGH WILL BE EXITING TUE NT...AND A MORE W THAN NW LOW LEVEL
FLOW WILL KEEP THE LAKE MI PLUME N OF THE FCST AREA. THIS MAY
RESULT IN A LULL IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MIDDLE OHO VALLEY.

NEXT S/W IS PROGGED TO BE NEGATIVELY TILTED AND ESSENTIALLY BECOME
THE MAIN L/W TROUGH AXIS AS IT CROSSES THE FCST AREA WED INTO WED
NT. WITH DIURNAL HEATING...SNOW SHOWERS APPEAR LIKELY THROUGHOUT
MUCH OF THE FCST AREA WED. AS THE LOW LEVEL FLOW VEERS A BIT MORE
TO THE NW LATE WED INTO WED NT...THE LAKE MI PLUME MAY EASE BACK
SWD INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA...BEFORE THE ENTIRE PATTERN
STARTS TO DRY OUT WED NT AND THU...AS UPPER HEIGHTS START TO RISE
AND THE H85 COLD TROUGH STARTS TO LIFT OUT.

THERE ARE LIKELY TO BE ADDITIONAL FINER DETAILS IN THE MIX AS
THIS ALL PLAYS OUT...BUT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS IN AND NEAR THE
MOUNTAINS WILL BE ESSENTIALLY ONGOING WELL INTO WED NT BEFORE
STARTING TO TAPER OFF.

STILL FIGURING ON AN INCH OR TWO PER 12 HOUR PERIOD FOR THE
LOWLANDS AND 2 TO 3 IN THE MOUNTAINS TUE NT...GRADUALLY WANING
THEREAFTER. WITH 24 HOUR SNOW AMOUNTS STILL WELL BELOW WARNING
CRITERIA...THE AREA WIDE ADVISORY LOOKS GOOD THOUGH COULD SEE
HAVING TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND IT IN THE MOUNTAINS THROUGH AT LEAST
WED. THAT WILL LIKELY BE A CASE OF DWINDLING AMOUNTS IN A
CONTINUATION OF THE EXISTING ENCROACHMENT.

NO MAJOR CHANGES TO TEMPERATURES IN THIS BELOW NORMAL
PATTERN...BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED GUIDANCE FOR LOWS AND BLENDED
IN RAW NAM OUTPUT FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES
TO START THE PERIOD. THIS IS DUE TO NW FLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER...A
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IS NOSING IN SO IT WILL BE A TIGHTROPE WALK
BETWEEN NORTHWEST FLOW AND DEPARTING MOISTURE. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON
POPS THIS WEEKEND...AS ECMWF SLIDES A SURFACE LOW TO OUR NORTH
DRIVING A COLD FRONT THROUGH. HOWEVER...THE GFS IS MUSH LESS ROBUST
WITH THIS SYSTEM...WITH A WEAKER FRONT AND LESS MOISTURE. STAYED IN
CHANCE POPS FOR NOW.

EITHER WAY...REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR ARRIVES WITH THIS FRONT
SETTING UP A VERY CHILLY WEEKEND. STILL BREEZY DURING THIS TIME AS
THE NEXT HIGH PRESSURE DOES NOT NOSE IN UNTIL DURING THE DAY SUNDAY.
WILL MENTION POTENTIAL FOR WIND CHILL ADVISORY IN THE HWO. MOST
WIDESPREAD ISSUE LOOKS TO BE SATURDAY NIGHT...BUT SHOULD HIGH ARRIVE
SOONER THAN FORECAST...WIND COULD SHUT DOWN EARLY.

ANOTHER SYSTEM LOOKS TO IMPACT THE END OF THE PERIOD...BUT WITH
FAIRLY DRASTIC DIFFERENCES IN THE MODELS STUCK CLOSE TO WPC FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
EST 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MZ
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 081815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 081815
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
115 PM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
18Z MONDAY THRU 18Z TUESDAY...
AN ARCTIC FRONT WILL CROSS THE AREA...YES...FROM SOUTHWEST TO
NORTHEAST TONIGHT. TIMING WOULD HAVE THE FRONT NEAR A KILN-KHTS-
KBLF LINE AROUND 01Z...A K3I2-KCRW-KBKW AROUND 04Z...AND INTO THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS AROUND 07Z. AHEAD OF THIS FRONT THRU
00Z...VARIABLE MVFR TO VFR CEILINGS WITH MAINLY SCATTERED RAIN AND
SNOW SHOWERS. EXPECT A NARROW BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW SHOWERS WITH
IFR CONDITIONS TO ACCOMPANY THE FRONT AS IT MOVES ACROSS. BEHIND
THE FRONT...EXPECT CONTINUED IFR CEILINGS AND OCCASIONAL IFR VSBYS
IN SNOW SHOWERS.

AFTER 13Z...GENERALLY IFR CEILINGS AND LOWER VSBY CONTINUE IN
SNOW SHOWERS...BUT SLOW IMPROVEMENT TO MVFR OVER SOUTHWEST
PORTIONS OF THE AREA BY 18Z.

WINDS WILL BE SOUTHWEST 8 TO 15 KTS...BECOMING WESTERLY 10 TO 20
KTS TONIGHT AND TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY IN SNOW SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE WAY THROUGH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY NORTH AND EAST PORTIONS OF AREA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081523
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1023 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE. NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
1015 UPDATE...MAIN FEATURE TO BE SPECIFIC ABOUT IS AN ARCTIC FRONT
THAT MOVES EASTWARD ACROSS THE AREA BETWEEN 00Z AND 06Z. EXPECT A
LINE OF BRIEF HEAVY SNOW SHOWERS/SNOW SQUALLS WITH THE
FRONT...THEN RATHER WIDESPREAD SNOW SHOWERS BEHIND THE FRONT.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EST 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JMV/26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 081047
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
547 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING DETERIORATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH A COLD FRONT
AND POST FRONTAL RAIN TURNING TO SNOW BY THIS EVENING/TONIGHT.
PREVAILING MVFR TO IFR LIKELY FOR ALL SITES...ESPECIALLY ONCE THE
LOWEST LEVELS SATURATED AFTER A FEW HOURS OF PRECIPITATION. THIS
APPLIES TO BOTH CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES. SNOW SHOWERS TONIGHT
WILL ALSO CARRY PREVAILING IFR VISIBILITIES FOR ALL TERMINALS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES. MAY
NEED A COUPLE HOURS OF IMPROVED FLIGHT CATEGORIES LATER TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080913
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
413 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
A DEEP LOW PRESSURE/TROUGH BRINGS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. THIS WILL CONTRIBUTE TO BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES AND PERIODS OF SNOW SHOWERS.

THE GFS/ECMWF/NAM ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE TIMING AND INTENSITY
OF THE PCPN. THE GFS/NAM SOLUTIONS SUGGEST SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY...CONTINUING INTO THURSDAY. 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
SNOW WILL BE COMMON...DEPENDING ON WHERE A SNOW BAND SET UP.

OUTSIDE WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA BY TUESDAY...ENHANCING
LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

WITH H85 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE
AND SLOWLY DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...BELIEVE ALL PCPN WILL BE
IN FORM OF SNOW. DESCENT OMEGA WITHIN THE DENDRITE SUGGEST LOCALIZED
BURSTS OF SNOW ARE POSSIBLE WHERE OMEGA REACH 15 TO 20 MICRO BARS
PER SECOND. 3 TO 5 INCHES OF SNOW CAN BE EXPECTED IN A TIME PERIOD
OF 24 TO 36 HOURS. ISSUED WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR MOST PLACES
FOR SNOW WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

WENT GENERALLY WITH THE ALLBLEND AND SUPERBLEND FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITE GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE
EVENING...AFFECTING SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED
FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER
TROF. SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING
THE NIGHT. HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO
WITH GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV
MOUNTAINS WHERE AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL.
THURSDAY MORNING WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND
FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON
GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH
IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY
TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080906
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
406 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER
LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT
LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPPER LEVEL LOW CONTINUES ITS SLOW TREK...DROPPING INTO THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY. SURFACE FRONTAL SYSTEM COUNTERPART
WILL TAKE A COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA TODAY...FOLLOWED BY A SERIES
OF UPPER LEVEL VORTICITY LOBES AND TROUGH AXES WELL INTO THE SHORT
TERM FORECAST PERIOD. EXPECTING A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS IN
TERMS OF TEMPERATURE WITH A PROLONGED PERIOD OF BELOW FREEZING
WEATHER BEGINNING TONIGHT.

SHOULD SEE A SLIGHTLY UNUSUAL PATTERN FOR THE TEMPERATURES AND
PRECIPITATION TYPE AS THE DAY EVOLVES. MAY SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW
AT FIRST GIVEN THE POTENTIAL TO WET BULB...AS DEWPOINTS RESIDE IN
THE LOW TO MID 20S CURRENTLY WHILE TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE UPPER
20S TO MID 30S. SHOULD TRANSITION TO RAIN AS TEMPERATURES CLIMB
TO THE UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S OVER THE LOWLANDS...AND FALL OFF
BEHIND THE FRONT THIS EVENING AND TONIGHT...CHANGING BACK TO SNOW.
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS SHOULD NOT GET ABOVE FREEZING...SO THIS
SHOULD BE AN ALL SNOW EVENT FRONT THE GET GO...AND HENCE...THE
ADVISORY BEGINNING AT 18Z FOR RANDOLPH AND POCAHONTAS COUNTIES.

850MB TEMPERATURES DROP HARD TONIGHT IN THE TRANSITION TO A MUCH
COLDER ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL SUPPORT THE OFF AND ON SNOW
SHOWERS...BRIEFLY HEAVY AT TIMES. SHOULD NOT HAVE ANY ISSUES AT THE
ONSET WITH SATURATION IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER...AND WILL SEE
MODEST ACCUMULATIONS BEGINNING TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY OVER THE
NORTHERN ZONES...AND IN THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
EST 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 7 AM EST WEDNESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 7 PM THIS EVENING TO 7 AM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080537
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1237 AM EST MON FEB 8 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1230 AM UPDATE...
NOTHING EARTH SHATTERING IN TERMS OF CHANGES YET...BUT STILL IN
THE MIDDLE OF THE FORECAST PACKAGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST
TONIGHT WITH AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT.
COLD FRONT PASSES THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW
SHOWERS WITH IT. PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND
DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS
FAIRLY HIGH ON THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH
REGARD TO P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT
ARRIVES MOST OF THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS
HEAVIEST PRECIP MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST
FORCING COULD DROP SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST
OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE
WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING
MOVES THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE
HIGHER TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z
TUESDAY...IT LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE
MOUNTAINS AND GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXPECTING OVERALL DETERIORATING AVIATION CONDITIONS THROUGH THE
TAF PERIOD...WITH A STRONG COLD FRONT PASSING THROUGH
TODAY...BRINGING RAIN CHANGING TO SNOW...LOWERING CEILING...AND
VISIBILITIES THAT WILL LIKELY BOUNCE IN AND OUT OF PRECIPITATION.

FOR THE CEILINGS...INTRODUCE MVFR NEAR THE ONSET...BUT HAVE IFR AT
SOME LOCATIONS AS THE LOWEST LEVELS SATURATE IN THE POST FRONTAL
ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE VISIBILITIES...GENERALLY USE MVFR WITH THE
ONSET AND IN RAIN...BUT IFR LIKELY AFTER SEVERAL HOURS OF LIGHT
RAIN...AND ESPECIALLY ONCE THE TRANSITION TO LIGHT SNOW OCCURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...HIGH IN THE DETERIORATING TRENDS...AND MEDIUM
IN THE DETAILS AND TIMING.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF IFR WILL VARY. LOW LEVEL SATURATION
MAY REQUIRE EARLIER ONSET OF IFR ONCE THE COLD FRONT PASSES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 02/08/16
UTC 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
EST 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS ALL THE
WAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON TODAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW/26
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW




000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW





000
FXUS61 KRLX 080239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST SUN FEB 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE EXITS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT MONDAY. UNSETTLED/COLDER
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY UNDER LARGE MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW...WITH
ROUNDS OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT LINGER THROUGH MUCH OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
930 PM UPDATE...OPTED TO KEEP A MORE PREDOMINATELY RAIN MIXTURE
ON MONDAY MORNING IN THE LOWLANDS...BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE WHICH
KEEPS A FAIRLY DEEP WARM LAYER BELOW 850 MB. HIGHER TERRAIN
SHOULD SEE AN INCREASE IN SNOW WHICH COULD BE HEAVY AT TIMES AND
THUS DECIDED TO GO WITH A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY.

THERE IS QUITE A BIT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE MONDAY AFTERNOON PRECIP
LOCATIONS/AMOUNTS AS AN UGLY MESS OF UPPER LEVEL FEATURES ROTATE
AROUND AN UPPER LOW. ADVISORIES MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED IN TIME
AND IN AREA AS DETAILS BECOME MORE APPARENT. SPOTTY QPF MAXIMUMS
HINT AT CSI AS COLD AIR FUNNELS IN AND THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE
BEGINS TO NOSE INTO THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSION FOLLOWS...
UPPER LOW DIGS DOWN FROM THE UPPER MIDWEST TONIGHT WITH AN
ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW AND TRAILING COLD FRONT. COLD FRONT PASSES
THE REGION TOMORROW BRINGING RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS WITH IT.
PRECIPITATION WILL ENTER THE OHIO VALLEY AROUND DAYBREAK AND
SPREAD EASTWARD FROM THERE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIRLY HIGH ON
THE TIMING OF FROPA BUT STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY WITH REGARD TO
P-TYPES. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT BEFORE THE FRONT ARRIVES MOST OF
THE REGION SHOULD BE ABOVE FREEZING...HOWEVER AS HEAVIEST PRECIP
MOVES OVERHEAD WET-BULBING IN AREA OF GREATEST FORCING COULD DROP
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ENOUGH FOR A QUICK BURST OF WET SNOW TO OCCUR
IN THE LOWLANDS. THIS WILL LIKELY ONLY BE WITH THE HEAVIEST BAND
OF PRECIPITATION AND AFTER THE BEST FORCING MOVES
THROUGH...EXPECTING JUST PLAIN RAIN SHOWERS OUTSIDE OF THE HIGHER
TERRAIN. AS FAR AS ACCUMULATION GOES THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...IT
LOOKS LIKE 1 TO 2 INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS AND
GENERALLY A HALF INCH OR LESS IN THE LOWLANDS.

DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY WITH BOUNDARY LAYERS TEMPERATURES...ON-
COMING SHIFTS WILL JUST HAVE TO MONITOR HOW THE EVENT UNFOLDS AND
AN SPS FOR A BRIEF PERIOD OF HEAVY SNOW TOMORROW MORNING COULD BE
POSSIBLE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
DEEP L/W TROUGH OVER THE ERN U.S. THIS ENTIRE PERIOD SPELLS BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND SNOW SHOWERS.

THE PARTY BEGINS RIGHT AT THE START OF THE PERIOD MON NT...WITH
COLD ADVECTION OVERSPREADING THE AREA FROM SW TO NE...BEHIND A NW
TO SE ORIENTED SFC LOW PRESSURE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE ERN
GREAT LAKES TO THE DELMARVA PENINSULA BY 12Z TUE. OUTSIDE
WIDESPREAD UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS...MODELS DEPICT A LAKE MI
TRAJECTORY COMING ACROSS THE NRN TIER OF THE FCST AREA MON NT INTO
TUE...ENHANCING LOWLAND SNOW AMOUNTS THERE VS. AREAS FARTHER S.

BEYOND THAT...TOUGH TO TIME THE SMALLER SCALE FEATURES ROTATING
AROUND THE EVOLVING UPPER LOW NEARBY TO THE N...BUT IT LOOKS LIKE
THE GENERAL TRAJECTORIES MAY NOT CHANGE MUCH. WITH H85
TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE TEENS BELOW ZERO C TUE AND SLOWLY
DROPPING FURTHER BEYOND THAT...DENDRITIC CRYSTAL GROWTH IS
FAVORED...RESULTING IN HIGH SNOW TO LIQUID RATIOS.

FOR STARTERS...SNOW TOTALS FOR MON NT THROUGH TUE ARE CLOSE TO 12
HOUR ADVISORY CRITERIA BUT 3-5 INCHES SHORT OF WARNING CRITERIA ON
A COUNTY AVERAGE BASIS THROUGHOUT THE FCST AREA. THUS NOT
INTRODUCING ANY HEADLINES AT THIS TIME ALTHOUGH IT IS PLAUSIBLE
ADVISORIES WILL BE NEEDED FOR THAT PERIOD...AND THEN TUE NT INTO
WED LOOK TO BE NEARLY AS SNOWY WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW AND L/W
TROUGH AXIS STILL OVER THE UPPER AND MIDDLE OHIO VALLEYS. THE LAKE
MI TRAJECTORY INTO NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA MAY STILL BE
THERE OR MAY BE BECOMING REESTABLISHED WED AFTERNOON.

TEMPERATURES WERE LOWER THAN GUIDANCE BUT GENERALLY STAYED CLOSE
TO PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND RAW GUIDANCE IN THIS ANOMALOUS PNA
PATTERN...PERHAPS JUST SLOWING DOWN THE COOLING A BIT MON NT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STILL EXPECTING SCT SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE AREA WEDNESDAY NIGHT.
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND HYSPLIT BACKWARDS TRAJECTORY PARCELS ALONG
WITH OMEGA/RH IN THE DENDRITIC GROWTH ZONE DO INDICATE SOME
ENHANCEMENT FROM LAKE MICHIGAN FOR A TIME IN THE EVENING...AFFECTING
SE OH AND ESPECIALLY N WV. THIS IS ENHANCED FURTHER WITH A SUBTLE
VORT MAX ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF.
SO...HAVE KEPT SOME FAIRLY HEALTHY POPS OVER THE N DURING THE NIGHT.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THIS TO BE A LOW QPF/HIGH POP SCENARIO WITH
GREATEST ACCUMULATIONS WEDNESDAY NIGHT OVER THE N WV MOUNTAINS WHERE
AN INCH OR TWO OF ADDITIONAL SNOW MAY FALL. THURSDAY MORNING WILL
FEATURE SOME LINGERING SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES...PRIMARILY WITHIN
ANY LAKE MICHIGAN PLUME AS SHOWN ON GFS. H85 THERMAL TROF LINGERS IN
THE VICINITY SO HARD TO SEE MUCH IN THE WAY OF IMPROVEMENT WITH THE
EROSION OF THE STRATOCU AND ANY TEMPERATURE MODERATION.

WE FINALLY GET SOME WAA GOING THURSDAY NIGHT WHICH SHOULD BE ENOUGH
FOR SOME CLEARING AREAWIDE. AT THE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE
BUILDING IN WHICH WILL MAKE FOR A VERY COLD NIGHT SHOULD WE INDEED
LOSE THE CLOUDS AMID A FRESH SNOW PACK. SOME BELOW ZERO READINGS ARE
POSSIBLE IN THE IN THE TYPICAL COLD SPOTS OF THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.
CONFIDENCE BEGINS TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE WEEKEND. THE GLOBAL
MODELS ARE HAVING SOME ISSUES RESOLVING FEATURES AND THE OVERALL
MEAN TROF OVER THE EASTERN CONUS. THUS HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO WPC
WHICH FAVORED A COLDER ECMWF SOLUTION FOR THE WEEKEND AMID ANOTHER
ARCTIC HAMMER DROP. NO BIG SYSTEM IS ENVISIONED OVER THE WEEKEND
THOUGH.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS COLD FRONT APPROACHES
THE AREA FROM THE WEST. RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS WILL ENTER THE OHIO
VALLEY BY DAYBREAK AND SPREAD EASTWARD THROUGH THE DAY. MVFR WITH
INCREASING CHANCES OF IFR. ALL TERMINALS WILL LIKELY STAY BELOW
VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE...MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TEMPERATURES MAY BE COOL ENOUGH TO HAVE IFR
SNOW.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 MON
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
MVFR TO PERIODS OF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS
ALL THE WAY INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH THE WORST CONDITIONS EXPECTED
TUESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM NOON MONDAY TO 1 AM EST TUESDAY
     FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JW/30
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JW





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