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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281212
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 UPDATE UPDATE...
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN RANDOLPH COUNTY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FCST ON
TRACK. SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR MUCH OF WV AND SW VA FOR ICY
SPOTS RESULTING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

PREV DISCN...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR AROUND 15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM/RPY
AVIATION...SL






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281212
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
700 UPDATE UPDATE...
ADVISORY FOR SNOW IN RANDOLPH COUNTY ALLOWED TO EXPIRE. FCST ON
TRACK. SPS IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM FOR MUCH OF WV AND SW VA FOR ICY
SPOTS RESULTING FROM THE OVERNIGHT SNOW SHOWERS.

PREV DISCN...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR AROUND 15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM/RPY
AVIATION...SL







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR AROUND 15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
533 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
12Z FRIDAY THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 14Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 17Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR AROUND 15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281031
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
530 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CROSSES TODAY.  MOISTENING SOUTHWEST FLOW PREVAILS
THIS WEEKEND.  COLD FRONTS CROSS MONDAY AND THEN NEARLY EVERY OTHER
DAY NEXT WEEK AS THE PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES MADE TO THE NEAR TERM FORECAST. SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE STARTING TO BUILD IN FROM THE WEST...WITH A NW FLOW ALOFT.
PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO LINGER ACROSS THE
CWA...AND THIS COMBINED WITH THE NWLY FLOW...HAS HELPED TO GENERATE
SOME LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS. THESE SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY
MORNING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND LINGER ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
NORTHERN WV ZONES THROUGH AT LEAST LATE MORNING...AS THE STRATUS
DECK SLOWLY ERODES TODAY. ALTHOUGH THE LOW STRATUS DECK SHOULD
GRADUALLY LIFT...STILL LOOKING AT OVERALL A CLOUDY DAY...AS MID AND
HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH FROM SURFACE
LOW ACROSS CENTRAL PLAINS QUICKLY FILTERS IN.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST LATER TONIGHT INTO
SATURDAY. MADE LITTLE CHANGES TO HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST FOR
TODAY...AND WITH THE EXPECTED CLOUD COVER...KEPT OVERNIGHT LOWS ON
THE WARMER SIDE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INCREASES BENEATH AN INVERSION AROUND H8 SAT AND
SAT NT...IN STRENGTHENING SW FLOW BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE MOVING OFF
THE E COAST...AND A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE NW.  THIS
INCREASES CLOUD COVER FROM NW TO SE.  ALTHOUGH THIS MOISTURE IS
PROGGED TO BE SHALLOW WITH DRY AIR ABOVE THE INVERSION...MODEL
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MOISTURE CAN GET 2-3 KFT DEEP...ENOUGH TO PRODUCE
VERY LIGHT RAIN OR DRIZZLE...BUT WITH AN INCREASING CHANCE TO
MEASURE ACROSS NWRN AND NRN PORTIONS OF THE FCST AREA.

THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES SUN NT AND THEN CROSSES ON MON.  HAVE A
BAND OF LIKELY POPS EITHER SIDE OF WHAT APPEARS WILL BE AN ANAFRONT
WITH A WEAK WAVE MOVING ALONG IT MON.  THE FRONT PUSHES S OF THE
AREA MON NT...TAKING MOST OF THE PRECIPITATION WITH IT...WITH COLDER
AIR FOLLOWING IN ITS WAKE.

BLENDED IN MET AND CONSENSUS DATA FOR HIGHS FOR LITTLE CHANGE.
BLENDED IN GFS BASED MOS AND A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWER HIGHS MON
GIVEN A FASTER PASSAGE OF THE FRONT.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
5 AM UPDATE...
AFTER A SYSTEM PASSES TUE-WED...LOWERED POPS AND TEMPERATURES WED NT
AND THU PER ISC AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE NW SPELLS A
COLDER AND DRIER SOLN....USING GFS40 AND CONSENSUS MOS TO LOWER THE
TEMPERATURES.

PREV DISCN...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR 14-15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY/TRM
AVIATION...SL








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE
SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT
DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB
THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED
AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD
COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR 14-15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE
SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT
DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB
THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED
AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD
COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR 14-15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE
SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT
DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB
THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED
AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD
COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT MOSTLY 2 TO 4 MILES IN VSBY
OVER WV UPSLOPE TERRAIN...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS 06Z TO 12Z.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 25 HND TO 35 HND FT BKN/OVC ACROSS LOWLANDS
THROUGH 15Z WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
BECOMING SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MID DECK CLOUDS AOA
10 THSD FT INCREASING AND THICKENING 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY FROM
WNW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280239
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
939 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE
SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT
DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB
THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED
AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD
COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.


&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT MOSTLY 2 TO 4 MILES IN VSBY
OVER WV UPSLOPE TERRAIN...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS 06Z TO 12Z.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 25 HND TO 35 HND FT BKN/OVC ACROSS LOWLANDS
THROUGH 15Z WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
BECOMING SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MID DECK CLOUDS AOA
10 THSD FT INCREASING AND THICKENING 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY FROM
WNW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    L    M    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST FRIDAY FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 272353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MINOR LEAGUE UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C AND LOWER AIR AT THE 850MB BY
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AUTO
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. ADDED THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT AROUND 35F OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. RESERVE THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...CONCENTRATING ON THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THINKING THAT THE 2 INCH MARK IS A GOOD NUMBER
FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 2000FT...BUT THE HIGHEST WINDWARD RIDGES
ABOVE 4000FT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
HOWEVER AND WILL NOT PUT OUT ANY HEADLINES. WILL RECOMMEND TO THE
EVENING SHIFT AN SPS MIGHT BE USEFUL LATER THIS EVENING TO COVER
THE LIGHT SNOW.

LAPSE RATES COLLAPSE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...SO WILL SEE THE END OF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY 12-15Z. WILL GO RIGHT INTO WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVELS IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850MB WITH
MOISTURE PROGS HINTING AT A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE RETURN OF THE CLOUDS SO
QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE COLD ADVECTION
DISSOLVES.

GOT ANOTHER DAY OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AFTER TEENS/20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS/LOWLANDS TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THIS AREA THIS
WEEKEND. 40F POSSIBLE IN THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT MOSTLY 2 TO 4 MILES IN VSBY
OVER WV UPSLOPE TERRAIN...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS 06Z TO 12Z.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 25 HND TO 35 HND FT BKN/OVC ACROSS LOWLANDS
THROUGH 15Z WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
BECOMING SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MID DECK CLOUDS AOA
10 THSD FT INCREASING AND THICKENING 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY FROM
WNW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 272353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
650 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MINOR LEAGUE UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C AND LOWER AIR AT THE 850MB BY
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AUTO
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. ADDED THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT AROUND 35F OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. RESERVE THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...CONCENTRATING ON THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THINKING THAT THE 2 INCH MARK IS A GOOD NUMBER
FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 2000FT...BUT THE HIGHEST WINDWARD RIDGES
ABOVE 4000FT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
HOWEVER AND WILL NOT PUT OUT ANY HEADLINES. WILL RECOMMEND TO THE
EVENING SHIFT AN SPS MIGHT BE USEFUL LATER THIS EVENING TO COVER
THE LIGHT SNOW.

LAPSE RATES COLLAPSE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...SO WILL SEE THE END OF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY 12-15Z. WILL GO RIGHT INTO WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVELS IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850MB WITH
MOISTURE PROGS HINTING AT A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE RETURN OF THE CLOUDS SO
QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE COLD ADVECTION
DISSOLVES.

GOT ANOTHER DAY OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AFTER TEENS/20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS/LOWLANDS TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THIS AREA THIS
WEEKEND. 40F POSSIBLE IN THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
SNOW SHOWERS OF VARYING INTENSITY...BUT MOSTLY 2 TO 4 MILES IN VSBY
OVER WV UPSLOPE TERRAIN...BECOMING LESS NUMEROUS 06Z TO 12Z.
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 25 HND TO 35 HND FT BKN/OVC ACROSS LOWLANDS
THROUGH 15Z WITH 1 TO 2 THSD FT BKN ACROSS WV MOUNTAINS.

AFTER 15Z FRIDAY...LINGERING STRATOCUMULUS AT 2 TO 3 THSD FT
BECOMING SCATTERED FROM THE SOUTH TO NORTH WITH MID DECK CLOUDS AOA
10 THSD FT INCREASING AND THICKENING 18Z FRIDAY TO 00Z SATURDAY FROM
WNW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 FRI
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 271912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MINOR LEAGUE UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C AND LOWER AIR AT THE 850MB BY
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AUTO
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. ADDED THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT AROUND 35F OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. RESERVE THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...CONCENTRATING ON THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THINKING THAT THE 2 INCH MARK IS A GOOD NUMBER
FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 2000FT...BUT THE HIGHEST WINDWARD RIDGES
ABOVE 4000FT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
HOWEVER AND WILL NOT PUT OUT ANY HEADLINES. WILL RECOMMEND TO THE
EVENING SHIFT AN SPS MIGHT BE USEFUL LATER THIS EVENING TO COVER
THE LIGHT SNOW.

LAPSE RATES COLLAPSE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...SO WILL SEE THE END OF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY 12-15Z. WILL GO RIGHT INTO WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVELS IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850MB WITH
MOISTURE PROGS HINTING AT A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE RETURN OF THE CLOUDS SO
QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE COLD ADVECTION
DISSOLVES.

GOT ANOTHER DAY OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AFTER TEENS/20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS/LOWLANDS TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THIS AREA THIS
WEEKEND. 40F POSSIBLE IN THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
212 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY
AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
TRANSITIONING TO NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOWER LEVELS THIS AFTERNOON
WITH A MINOR LEAGUE UPSLOPE SNOW EVENT ON TAP FOR THIS EVENING AND
TONIGHT. COLD ADVECTION BRINGS -10C AND LOWER AIR AT THE 850MB BY
TONIGHT WHICH WILL HELP WITH THE LAPSE RATES AND ALLOW FOR AUTO
CONVECTION TO OCCUR. ADDED THE BULK OF THE CWA INTO SLIGHT CHANCE
POPS IN THIS SCENARIO...THOUGH MOST PRECIPITATION...WHICH MAY BE A
RAIN/SNOW MIX AT AROUND 35F OVER THE NEXT 3 HOURS...SHOULD BE
INSIGNIFICANT. RESERVE THE ACCUMULATION POTENTIAL FOR THE TYPICAL
UPSLOPE AREAS IN THE EASTERN HIGHLANDS...CONCENTRATING ON THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINS. THINKING THAT THE 2 INCH MARK IS A GOOD NUMBER
FOR MOST AREAS ABOVE ABOUT 2000FT...BUT THE HIGHEST WINDWARD RIDGES
ABOVE 4000FT COULD SEE UP TO 4 INCHES. THIS SHOULD BE ISOLATED
HOWEVER AND WILL NOT PUT OUT ANY HEADLINES. WILL RECOMMEND TO THE
EVENING SHIFT AN SPS MIGHT BE USEFUL LATER THIS EVENING TO COVER
THE LIGHT SNOW.

LAPSE RATES COLLAPSE AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...SO WILL SEE THE END OF THE
MOUNTAIN SNOW BY 12-15Z. WILL GO RIGHT INTO WARM AIR ADVECTION
OVER THE LOW LEVELS IN A TIGHT TEMPERATURE GRADIENT AT 850MB WITH
MOISTURE PROGS HINTING AT A WARM FRONT PUSHING THROUGH FRIDAY
AFTERNOON. THIS IS THE REASON FOR THE RETURN OF THE CLOUDS SO
QUICKLY AFTER THE LOW LEVEL STRATUS FROM THE COLD ADVECTION
DISSOLVES.

GOT ANOTHER DAY OF CHILLY TEMPERATURES AFTER TEENS/20S IN THE
MOUNTAINS/LOWLANDS TONIGHT BEFORE IMPROVEMENT IN THIS AREA THIS
WEEKEND. 40F POSSIBLE IN THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT THAT WILL BE
ABOUT IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE COLDEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26












000
FXUS61 KRLX 271830
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
123 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT CLOSER
TO THE COLDEST ECMWF MOS NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 271802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
102 PM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW WILL RESULT IN UPSLOPE SNOW FOR THE EASTERN
TERMINALS FOR THE BULK OF THE TAF PERIOD. MVFR CEILINGS WILL BE A
GOOD BET FOR PREVAILING GOING FORWARD AND WILL TAKE VISIBILITIES
DOWN TO IFR AS THE CHANCES INCREASE FOR SNOW SHOWERS. CKB/EKN/BKW
ARE THE BEST BETS FOR PREVAILING SNOW CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z TODAY.
CANNOT RULE BRIEF SNOW CONDITIONS AT CRW AND PKB.

MET AND MAV GUIDANCE LOOKED TO BE TOO OPTIMISTIC IN TERMS OF
VISIBILITIES AT CKB AND BKW.

IN GENERAL...CEILINGS TO LIFT TO VFR AFTER 12Z...PERHAPS A COUPLE
HOURS LATER FOR THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271510
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.

FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271510
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1010 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
JUST A FEW ECHOES LEFT ON THE RADAR AS THE OVERNIGHT SYSTEM
ROTATES TO THE EAST. LOW LEVEL FLOW TO TURN NORTHWESTERLY WITH A
FETCH OFF OF LAKE MICHIGAN...SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS GOING WITH
INCREASING MOUNTAIN POPS INTO THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.

FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271045
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.

FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271045
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
545 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LIFR/IFR CONDITIONS DUE TO FOG AND LOW STRATUS EXPECTED TO LIFT
OFF TO MVFR/VFR AT MOST SITES BY 13-14Z. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE AT
BKW WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD CONTINUE DURING THE MORNING HOURS AS
A CLIPPER EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN TODAY.

FLOW TURNS NORTHWEST LATER TODAY AND TONIGHT. A WEAKENING COLD
FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE NORTHWEST THIS EVENING. WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS TO AFFECT EKN WITH MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS
TONIGHT.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING MEDIUM AT THIS TIME.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING
BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER INTO EARLY FRIDAY OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270845
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WEAK CLIPPER EXITS SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS THIS MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
AND LINGERING MOISTURE PRODUCE UPSLOPE SNOW THROUGH TONIGHT. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A WEAK CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS EASTERN KY AND EASTERN TN THIS
MORNING. ON ITS WAY...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS
SOUTHWEST VA...AND EXTREME SOUTHERN WV DURING THE MORNING HOURS.
HOWEVER...WIND BECOMES NORTHWEST...AND WITH LINGERING
MOISTURE...UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS ARE LIKELY OVER THE CENTRAL AND
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THROUGH TONIGHT. KEPT CHANCE POPS OVER THE
WESTERN SLOPES AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND LIKELY POPS OVER
ELEVATIONS HIGHER THAN 3000 FEET.

MODELS INDICATE THAT BY 00Z FRIDAY...OUR AREA STILL UNDER THE BACK
EDGE OF THE H500 TROUGH...ACCOMPANY BY A STRONG ELONGATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA. H850 CHARTS SHOW EVEN COLDER AIR ADVECTING FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGING H850 TEMPERATURES AROUND MINUS 11C. THESE
CONDITIONS WILL COMBINE WITH THE UPSLOPE COMPONENT TO PRODUCE AN
INCH OR TWO AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF LIGHT SNOW LATE THURSDAY.

USED THE HRRR NUMBERS FOR HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY...AND WENT
CLOSER TO THE COLDEST ADJECE NUMBERS FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 270802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT. A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY. IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 270802
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
302 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT. A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY. IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/...
WEAK SYSTEM PASSES BY TO THE NORTH ON SATURDAY. THEN A WEAK
BAROCLINIC ZONE DEVELOPS AND LINGERS OVER THE AREA FROM SATURDAY
THROUGH MONDAY WITH LOW POPS. FINALLY A MORE ORGANIZED SYSTEM
ROLLS THROUGH ON MONDAY...BUT MODELS VARYING WIDELY ON TIMING OF
THIS IMPULSE SO GENERALLY KEPT 30 TO 40 POPS OVER A LARGE PERIOD.
FRONT EXITS REGION ANYTIME BETWEEN MONDAY NIGHT TO TUESDAY
EVENING. NUDGED MORE TOWARDS SLOWER 00Z EURO. TOO WARM FOR SNOW
MOST PLACES DURING THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    L    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270553
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1253 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT. A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY. IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 270553
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1253 AM EST THU NOV 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS OVERNIGHT.
COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING. HIGH
PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
PREVIOUS FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT. A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY. IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM. MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
A VERY TRICKY FORECAST TONIGHT...AS LINGERING ABUNDANT MOISTURE
PRODUCING AREAS OF DENSE FOG...WHILE A MID CLOUD DECK SPREADS
ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF WV...AND A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM PASSES
TO OUR SOUTH OVERNIGHT.

STARTING WITH LIFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS AT PKB DUE TO DENSE
FOG. IFR CEILINGS EFFACING CRW AND IFR VISIBILITIES AFFECTING EKN.
CONDITIONS AT OTHER SITES REMAINS MVFR/VFR. HOWEVER...AS MID LEVEL
CLOUDS DRIFT NORTH NORTHEAST FROM THE SOUTH...CONDITIONS COULD
IMPROVE AT CRW. IN OTHER HAND...DOPPLER RADAR INDICATE RAIN SNOW
MIX SHOWERS OVER KY...MOVING NORTHEAST. SOME OF THESE SHOWERS
COULD REACH EXTREME SOUTHWEST OF VA AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN WV
OVERNIGHT...TO PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY.

CONFIDENCE RUNNING LOW AT TM. PERIODS OF FLURRIES...DRIZZLE OR
FREEZING DRIZZLE COULD BE POSSIBLE MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
THIRD AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS THROUGH 12Z.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS
FINALLY INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN
15Z TO 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY BOUNCE UP AND DOWN DURING BREAKS IN
CLOUDS. VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE
VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB/ARJ
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT.  A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY.  IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA BETWEEN FEATURES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.   LOWERED CONFIDENCE
TO LOW BECAUSE OF THE AREA AROUND CRW TO CKB THAT SAW THEIR AIR MASS
SATURATED FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...BUT NOW THE CLOUDS WERE
THINNING.  A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE VSBY TO DROP TEMPORARILY INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.  OTHERWISE
STILL IFR AND LIFR OVER WV MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE 00Z TO 12Z.

MEANWHILE...WHERE AIR DID NOT SATURATE ON WEDNESDAY...IN SE OHIO AND
NE KY...CEILINGS HIGHER...MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BKN.

MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ADVANCING
QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER CLOUDS 03Z TO 06Z.  LIGHT SNOW REFORMING OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY S OF CRW...HAVE BKW TAF SITE AFFECTED THE
MOST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY
INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO
18Z.  HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR AT 850 MBS 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY.
VSBY OCCASIONALLY NEAR 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CNTRL AND NRN
WV DURG THAT 18Z TO 00Z PD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY NOT DROP VCNTY CRW 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DO NOT OCCUR.  VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN
INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270323
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1020 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
EVEN BETWEEN A MAJOR AND MINOR SYSTEM...IT CAN BE DIFFICULT.  A LOT
OF OUR ATTENTION WEDNESDAY EVENING WAS TO OUR AVIATION CONCERNS...
WITH LOW CEILINGS AND INTERMITTENT LOW VSBY.  IN THE WEAK WIND
FLOW...PATCHY DENSE FOG DID FORM WHERE THE AIR GOT SATURATED FROM
THE COASTAL STORM.  MEANWHILE...CLOUDS AND VSBY MUCH HIGHER OVER
SOUTHEAST OHIO...NORTHEAST KENTUCKY AND HTS VCNTY TONIGHT.

INCREASING MID LEVEL MOISTURE WAS SPREADING BACK ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN
COUNTIES BY 03Z...AS EVIDENT 88D BEAM RETURNS.

WE STILL HAVE THE WEAKENING 700-500 MB TROF AXIS PASSING BY 12Z
THURSDAY.  WE HAVE AN INCH OR TWO OF ELEVATION BASED LIGHT SNOW
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN OF OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES...DURING
THE PREDAWN HOURS. YET...AGREE WITH OUR DAYSHIFTERS...STILL DID NOT
SEE AN IMMEDIATE NEED FOR ADVISORIES.

COLDER 850 MB AIR MOVES OUR WAY WHILE A LOT OF FOLKS ARE FEASTING ON
TURKEY.  AS A RESULT...SOME LIGHT ACCUMULATIONS ARE EVEN POSSIBLE
INTO THURSDAY NIGHT OVER THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE TO TEMPERATURE OR POP GRIDS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY
DUE TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA BETWEEN FEATURES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.   LOWERED CONFIDENCE
TO LOW BECAUSE OF THE AREA AROUND CRW TO CKB THAT SAW THEIR AIR MASS
SATURATED FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...BUT NOW THE CLOUDS WERE
THINNING.  A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE VSBY TO DROP TEMPORARILY INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.  OTHERWISE
STILL IFR AND LIFR OVER WV MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE 00Z TO 12Z.

MEANWHILE...WHERE AIR DID NOT SATURATE ON WEDNESDAY...IN SE OHIO AND
NE KY...CEILINGS HIGHER...MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BKN.

MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ADVANCING
QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER CLOUDS 03Z TO 06Z.  LIGHT SNOW REFORMING OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY S OF CRW...HAVE BKW TAF SITE AFFECTED THE
MOST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY
INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO
18Z.  HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR AT 850 MBS 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY.
VSBY OCCASIONALLY NEAR 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CNTRL AND NRN
WV DURG THAT 18Z TO 00Z PD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY NOT DROP VCNTY CRW 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DO NOT OCCUR.  VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN
INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 11/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 262353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA BETWEEN FEATURES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.   LOWERED CONFIDENCE
TO LOW BECAUSE OF THE AREA AROUND CRW TO CKB THAT SAW THEIR AIR MASS
SATURATED FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...BUT NOW THE CLOUDS WERE
THINNING.  A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE VSBY TO DROP TEMPORARILY INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.  OTHERWISE
STILL IFR AND LIFR OVER WV MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE 00Z TO 12Z.

MEANWHILE...WHERE AIR DID NOT SATURATE ON WEDNESDAY...IN SE OHIO AND
NE KY...CEILINGS HIGHER...MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BKN.

MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ADVANCING
QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER CLOUDS 03Z TO 06Z.  LIGHT SNOW REFORMING OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY S OF CRW...HAVE BKW TAF SITE AFFECTED THE
MOST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY
INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO
18Z.  HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR AT 850 MBS 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY.
VSBY OCCASIONALLY NEAR 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CNTRL AND NRN
WV DURG THAT 18Z TO 00Z PD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY NOT DROP VCNTY CRW 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DO NOT OCCUR.  VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN
INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 262353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
655 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATE
TONIGHT. COLDER AIR WITH LINGERING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THANKSGIVING.
HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY/SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AREA BETWEEN FEATURES THIS WEDNESDAY EVENING.   LOWERED CONFIDENCE
TO LOW BECAUSE OF THE AREA AROUND CRW TO CKB THAT SAW THEIR AIR MASS
SATURATED FROM THE EAST COAST STORM...BUT NOW THE CLOUDS WERE
THINNING.  A FEW BREAKS MAY DEVELOP THIS EVENING...WHICH COULD CAUSE
THE VSBY TO DROP TEMPORARILY INTO THE 1 TO 3 MILE RANGE.  OTHERWISE
STILL IFR AND LIFR OVER WV MOUNTAINS DUE TO LOW STRATUS AND LINGERING
FLURRIES...DRIZZLE...OR FREEZING DRIZZLE 00Z TO 12Z.

MEANWHILE...WHERE AIR DID NOT SATURATE ON WEDNESDAY...IN SE OHIO AND
NE KY...CEILINGS HIGHER...MOSTLY 3 TO 5 THSD FT BKN.

MID DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE SECONDARY CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM ADVANCING
QUICKLY OVER THE LOWER CLOUDS 03Z TO 06Z.  LIGHT SNOW REFORMING OVER
SOUTHERN COUNTIES...MOSTLY S OF CRW...HAVE BKW TAF SITE AFFECTED THE
MOST DURING THE PREDAWN HOURS.

CLIPPER SYSTEM EXITS AFTER 12Z...WITH BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS FINALLY
INCREASING AND HELPING TO LIFT THE CEILINGS IN WV BETWEEN 15Z TO
18Z.  HAVE CEILINGS MOSTLY 2 TO 3 THSD FT BKN/OVC WITH SCATTERED
SNOW SHOWERS IN THE COLDER AIR AT 850 MBS 18Z THU TO 00Z FRIDAY.
VSBY OCCASIONALLY NEAR 3 MILES IN SNOW SHOWERS MOSTLY CNTRL AND NRN
WV DURG THAT 18Z TO 00Z PD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: VSBY MAY NOT DROP VCNTY CRW 00Z TO 03Z THIS
EVENING IF BREAKS IN CLOUDS DO NOT OCCUR.  VSBY OVER MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES...INCLUDING BKW...MAY BE MORE VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THAN
INDICATED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 THU
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS MAY LINGER OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT OVER
WV MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 261927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26






000
FXUS61 KRLX 261927
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
227 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS NORTHEAST. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HANGING ON TO SOME POPS FOLLOWING THE CLIPPER TYPE SYSTEM TO START
THE SHORT TERM...THAN HAVE SOME ENHANCEMENT THURSDAY AFTERNOON AND
THURSDAY NIGHT AS UPPER TROUGH PASSES AND COLDER AIR OOZES IN.
MOISTURE QUICKLY MOVES OUT THURSDAY NIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE NOSES IN
FROM THE SW. A WEAK WARM FRONT PASSES TO THE WEST AND BRINGS SOME
CLOUDS LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT AS THE SURFACE HIGH SLOWLY
HEADS SOUTHEAST. NOT EXPECTING ANY PRECIP FROM THE WARM FRONT.
SATURDAY WILL WARM BACK TO NEAR NORMAL WITH SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST FLOW.

BLENDED IN RAW CONSENSUS FOR LOWS. GOING A TOUCH COOLER THAN
PREVIOUS FORECAST IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN THURSDAY NIGHT...AND THEN
GOING WITH A NON DIURNAL ABOVE 3500 FT FRIDAY NIGHT. BLENDED IN THE
MAV FOR HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GENERALLY USED THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST...WITH A BIT
OF THE GFS BLENDED IN. HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD SATURDAY NIGHT
AND SUNDAY...PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY
PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. HANDLING OF THIS
FRONT BEYOND MONDAY BECOMES A BIT MURKY. SOME MODELS DEVELOP A WAVE
ALONG THE FRONT FOR TUESDAY WHILE OTHERS PUSH THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH
AND DISSOLVE IT. WILL KEEP SOME SMALL POPS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY DUE
TO THE UNCERTAINTY...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26







000
FXUS61 KRLX 261857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26/JW
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
157 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE EXITS TO THE NORTHEAST. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM
CROSSES THE SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE
FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
PRECIPITATION IS FIZZLING OUT OVER THE CENTRAL LOWLANDS AS THE
MAIN ENERGY OF THE COASTAL SYSTEM CONTINUES TO THE NORTHEAST. DRY
SLOT IS HOLDING ON OVER THE TRI STATE AREA...AND FIGURE IT WILL
REMAIN THERE WITHOUT ANY FURTHER EASTWARD PROGRESS THANKS TO LOW
LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION. SNOW HAS ENDED IN BKW AND WILL LIFT OUT
OF RAND/POCA IN THE NEXT 4 TO 6 HOURS AFTER A DECREASE IN
INTENSITY.

MEANWHILE...OVER THE MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...A CLIPPER TYPE
SYSTEM DIVES INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
CARVES A PATH INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. WITH THAT SAID...THE NEXT ROUND
OF PRECIPITATION IS NOT FAR BEHIND FOR THE SOUTHERN ZONES TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SYSTEM IS FRONTOLYTIC IN NATURE...AND FIGURE THAT WILL
GO AGAINST THE QPF AND SUBSEQUENT SNOWFALL AMOUNT PROJECTIONS.
THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN AN INCH OR TWO FROM
MCDOWELL INTO RAND/POCA COUNTIES.

FURTHER TO THE WEST...WHILE THE AFOREMENTIONED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
WILL SLOW THE COLD AIR ADVECTION TONIGHT...850MB TEMPS DROP
TOWARDS THE -10C MARK ACROSS SOUTHEAST OHIO. NORTHWEST FLOW BRINGS
THE POTENTIAL FOR UPSLOPING CONDITIONS...AND IN THE COLDER AIR
ALOFT...THE CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS EXISTS ALL THE WAY BACK INTO
PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS WILL BEGIN AFTER 18Z THURSDAY AS
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DEPTH BEGINS TO INCREASE.

USING A BLEND OF THE GUIDANCE...MANUALLY ADJUSTED THE MIN
TEMPERATURES DOWNWARD TONIGHT OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND
LIKEWISE FOR THE AFTERNOON MAX TEMPERATURES THURSDAY. ALL IN
ALL...NOT MUCH TO THE DIURNAL TEMPERATURE CURVE FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON UNTIL THIS TIME TOMORROW.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/26/JW
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 PM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO PUSH TO THE NORTHEAST...AND WILL
TAKE THE SNOW WITH IT EXITING THE AREA BY 03Z TONIGHT. HAVE SOME
CLEARING TOWARDS THE TRI STATE AREA...BUT FOR THE MOST PART...IFR
TO MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT WILL PREVAIL...WITH VISIBILITIES
IMPROVING ONE THE SNOW ENDS AT EACH TERMINAL.

GUIDANCE WAS TOO PESSIMISTIC ON THE VISIBILITIES OVERNIGHT...SO
TRENDED MVFR OR BETTER.

ANOTHER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM BRINGS SNOW BACK INTO THE SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS AND EVENTUALLY INTO EKN AS IT TRACKS THROUGH THE
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS AND INTO THE PIEDMONT. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER
12Z THURSDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SNOW LIFTING OUT AND IMPROVING
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES COULD VARY. MAY NEED AN AMENDMENT HERE
OR THERE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ035-036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261509
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261509
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261509
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261509
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1009 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
SNOWFALL RATES ARE INCREASING OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS THIS
MORNING AS THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND. SOME
SITES REPORTING OVER 6 INCHES AT THIS POINT IN POCAHONTAS COUNTY.
STARTING TO LOSE THE COLDER CLOUD TOPS OVER THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS
WHILE RADAR SHOWS THE PRECIPITATION LINE MOVING OUT OF THE
VIRGINIA COUNTIES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ZONES. AT THE SAME
TIME...WILL BE LOSING MUCH OF THE SNOWFALL IN THE KANAWHA VALLEY
IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

DESPITE THE HIGHER EXTREMES IN THE MOUNTAINS...CURRENT FORECAST IS
HOLDING UP FAIRLY WELL. ONLY A FEW MINOR ADJUSTMENTS ACROSS THE
BOARD THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    M    L    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/26
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261050
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
550 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST TODAY...BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS LATER TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING GOOD AMOUNT OF QPF TO THE EASTERN
MOUNTAINS...WITH LESSER AMOUNTS INTO CENTRAL WV TODAY. REPORTS OF
SNOW OR RAIN TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE HIGH
RESOLUTION MODELS WRFNMM...WRFARW...AND RUC13. SYNOPTIC MODELS
SUCH AS THE GFS AND ECMWF ALSO HAVE A GOOD TIMING AS SEEN IN QPF
FIELDS.

A WARM BOUNDARY LAYER WILL KEEP PCPN TO FALL AS RAIN BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO SNOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN
MOUNTAINS...AS WELL AS OVER PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS THIS MORNING.
EVENTUALLY...PCPN WILL CHANGE TO ALL SNOW BY MID MORNING BEFORE
EXITING NORTHEAST BY EARLY OR MID AFTERNOON.

OMEGA VALUES OF 15-20 MICRO BARS PER SECOND WITHIN THE DENDRITE
GROWTH ZONE INDICATED BY THE NAM AND GFS SUGGEST A BURST OF SNOW
POSSIBLE DURING THE MORNING HOURS MAINLY EASTERN MOUNTAINS AND
EAST. MINOR OR LESS ACCUMULATIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS.

FOR TONIGHT...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE SOUTHERN
PORTIONS OF THE AREA TO BRING SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN
COAL FIELDS AND CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS.

HAVE CATEGORICAL POPS EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A SHARP GRADIENT WEST
INTO THE OH RIVER. PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOKING GOOD. BLENDED
THEM WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED MET NUMBERS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST WESTERN SITES TODAY. THE
EXCEPTION WILL BE THE EASTERN SITES WHERE SNOW SHOWERS COULD
PRODUCE MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS.
SNOW SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO DIMINISH AND EXIT TO THE NORTHEAST BY
LATE THIS AFTERNOON. HOWEVER...A CLIPPER LIKE SYSTEM COULD BRING
ADDITIONAL SNOW ACCUMULATIONS AND ASSOCIATED MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS ACROSS
THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA TO AFFECT BKW AND CRW TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE THIS MORNING AND TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 260832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN...EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z THIS MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT PCPN IS FAR AWAY SOUTHWEST TO START
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS PCPN
COULD EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WV WITH LESS OR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. THE
EXPECTED PCPN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO FAST WHEN
COMPARED WITH DOPPLER RADAR. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
WHICH SHOULD START AS RAIN BY 09-12Z...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO SNOW BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
09-12Z INTO MVFR/IFR WHILE PCPN REMAINS LIQUID OR MIXED WITH SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES...DECREASING WEST INTO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...ALONG THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 260832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN...EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z THIS MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT PCPN IS FAR AWAY SOUTHWEST TO START
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS PCPN
COULD EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WV WITH LESS OR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
AIR MASS COOLS SIGNIFICANTLY AS A CLIPPER SYSTEM STREAMS THROUGH
THE AREA BRINGING SNOW TO MOST LOCATIONS. BEST CHANCE FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW IS SOUTHERN WV WHERE THEY MAY GET AN INCH.

LIGHT UPSLOPE SNOW CONTINUES IN THE MOUNTAINS FOR A FEW DAYS
AFTERWARDS WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION.

BELOW NORMAL TEMPS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. THE
EXPECTED PCPN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO FAST WHEN
COMPARED WITH DOPPLER RADAR. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
WHICH SHOULD START AS RAIN BY 09-12Z...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO SNOW BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
09-12Z INTO MVFR/IFR WHILE PCPN REMAINS LIQUID OR MIXED WITH SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES...DECREASING WEST INTO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...ALONG THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 260550
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1250 AM EST WED NOV 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN...EXPECTED TO START AS RAIN DURING THE
PREDAWN HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A RAIN/SNOW MIX BY 12Z THIS MORNING
ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER...AND
RADAR IMAGES INDICATE THAT PCPN IS FAR AWAY SOUTHWEST TO START
OVERNIGHT. NEVERTHELESS...PCPN IS EXPECTED TO TRANSITION FROM RAIN
TO SNOW WEDNESDAY MORNING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME OF THIS PCPN
COULD EXTEND FARTHER WEST INTO CENTRAL WV WITH LESS OR MINOR SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS. REST OF FORECAST REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL ACROSS MOST SITES OVERNIGHT. THE
EXPECTED PCPN OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS SEEMS TO FAST WHEN
COMPARED WITH DOPPLER RADAR. THEREFORE...DELAYED THE ONSET OF PCPN
WHICH SHOULD START AS RAIN BY 09-12Z...THEN SLOWLY TRANSITIONING
INTO SNOW BY 16-18Z WEDNESDAY. CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE AFTER
09-12Z INTO MVFR/IFR WHILE PCPN REMAINS LIQUID OR MIXED WITH SNOW.

SIGNIFICANT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE ALONG THE HIGHER
RIDGES...DECREASING WEST INTO THE LOWLANDS WEDNESDAY...AS A LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES NORTH...ALONG THE EAST COAST.

IMPROVING CONDITIONS EXPECTED AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE
NORTH AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE
TO LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-
     047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR
     VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...ARJ/SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 260226
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
926 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
925 PM UPDATE...TWEAKED TEMPERATURE GRIDS TO BETTER REPRESENT
CURRENT CONDITIONS. AT THIS POINT...FELT NO CHANGES TO CURRENT
HEADLINES ARE WARRANTED. ALTHOUGH SNOW IS EXPECTED TO THE WEST OF
THE HEADLINES...MODEL SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MANY LOCATIONS WILL HAVE
SURFACE TEMPERATURES JUST ABOVE FREEZING...THUS LIMITING
ACCUMULATIONS...AND THAT PERIOD OF GOOD CRYSTAL GROWTH...AND THUS
HEAVIER SNOWFALL POTENTIAL DURATION...WILL BE SOMEWHAT SHORT
LIVED. WILL LEAVE ALL HEADLINES AS IS.


PREVIOUS DISCUSSION FOLLOWS...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH/EAST TO NORTH/WEST AS A LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT IN
THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
RAIN BELOW 2500 FEET ELEVATION 06-12Z...WITH SNOW AREA WIDE AFTER
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY AFTER
12-15Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND VA. SOME GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 11/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M    M    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-
     004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL/30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 252353
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
653 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT ALL SITES THROUGH 06Z. CLOUDS WILL
THICKEN AND LOWER...AND PRECIPITATION WILL SPREAD INTO THE AREA
FROM SOUTH/EAST TO NORTH/WEST AS A LOW MOVES NORTH ALONG THE
COAST...GENERALLY AFTER 06Z. EXPECT PRECIPITATION TO START OUT IN
THE FORM OF A RAIN/SNOW MIX...GENERALLY ABOVE 2500 FEET...WITH
RAIN BELOW 2500 FEET ELEVATION 06-12Z...WITH SNOW AREA WIDE AFTER
12Z. EXPECT WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS...GENERALLY AFTER
12-15Z...PARTICULARLY ACROSS WEST VIRGINIA...AND VA. SOME GENERAL
IMPROVEMENT IN CONDITIONS AFTER 21Z AS THE LOW EXITS TO THE NORTH
AND EAST...HOWEVER...MVFR AND LOCAL IFR CIGS WILL CONTINUE TO
LINGER...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    M    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS AND STRATUS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT
TIMES INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 252103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCKB AND
KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30








000
FXUS61 KRLX 252103
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE
APPALACHIANS. A WEAKER CLIPPER SYSTEM CROSSES THE CENTRAL OR
SOUTHERN APPALACHIANS WEDNESDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NAM12 IS ODD MODEL OUT IN BRINGING ALBERTA CLIPPER S OF THE AREA WED
NT INTO THU MORNING.  TOOK AN IN BETWEEN SOLN WITH HIGH CHANCE POPS
S LATE WED NT AND LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS INTO THU.
EXPECT ACCUMULATIONS EVEN THERE ONLY AN INCH OR TWO.  WEAK UPSLOPE
FLOW RE-INVIGORATES A BIT THU NT AS H85 TEMPERATURES DIP BELOW
-10C.  THIS BRINGS A BRIEF RETURN OF LIKELY SNOW SHOWERS IN THE
MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT THU NT.  HIGH PRESSURE THEN BRINGS DRY WEATHER
FOR FRI...CUTTING OFF THE UPSLOPE FLOW FIRST THING IN THE MORNING.

NO MAJOR CHANGES NEEDED TO TEMPERATURES...WHICH WERE CLOSE TO
GUIDANCE MEANS AND BELOW NORMAL ESPECIALLY ON HIGHS.  WARM ADVECTION
AT H85 AND ABOVE IS NOT REALIZED BELOW THE INVERSION FOR HIGHS FRI.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE
SNOW IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT KCKB AND
KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY AFTERNOON
WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR STRATUS MAY
LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE MOUNTAINS AT TIMES WEDNESDAY
AFTERNOON INTO THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30







000
FXUS61 KRLX 251958
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
258 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO
THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
ATTENTION TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN OVERNIGHT
AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR CONCERN WILL
COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO DEVELOPING
SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. WHILE THE W EXTENT OF THE PRECIP IS
BY AND LARGE SIMILAR AMONGST THE NAM AND GLOBAL MODELS...AMOUNT
AND THERMAL PROFILES DIFFER. THIS MAKES FOR A CHALLENGING FORECAST
REGARDING WINTER WEATHER. THE MESO NAM IS WETTER AND COLDER IN
THE LOWER PORTIONS OF THE BL.../BELOW 3 KFT/ THAN GFS. THE NEW
ECMWF ALONG WITH SREF TEND TO SIDE WITH NAM FOR THERMAL PROFILES
BUT WITH LESS QPF. AFTER COORDINATION WITH WPC...WENT MORE TOWARD
THE GFS AND NAM 4 KM FOR THERMAL PROFILES WITH LITTLE IN THE WAY
OFF CAA TO WORK OFF. AS FOR QPF A BLEND OF GFS AND SREF WAS USED.
ALL OF THIS RESULTED IN PRECIPITATION QUICKLY OVERSPREADING SW VA
AND E HALF OF WV AFTER MIDNIGHT. EXPECT THIS TO INITIALLY TAKE THE
FORM OF RAIN IN THE LOWLANDS AND FOR ELEVATIONS BELOW 2500 FEET IN
THE MOUNTAINS. AS THE BL COOLS EXPECT A SWITCH TO SNOW ACROSS THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES FIRST...FOLLOWED BY
LOWLANDS E OF US 119 IN THE S AND ALONG AND E OF I79 IN THE N
TOWARD MORNING. THE S/W TROF QUICKLY MOVES THRU WITH SURFACE LOW
RACING NE JUST OFF THE E COAST. AS SUCH...QUICKLY BRING POPS DOWN
FROM SW TO NE...SO THAT BY EARLY AFTERNOON THE CWA SHOULD BE DRY
BY AND LARGE.

AS FOR ACCUMULATIONS...HAVE A GENERAL 4 TO 8 FOR RANDOLPH AND
POCAHONTAS WHERE THE WATCH WAS UPGRADED TO A WARNING. HOISTED AN
ADVISORY FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WV MOUNTAINS DOWN INTO SW VA FOR
1 TO 3 INCHES WITH 2 TO 4 FOR THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS. ALSO PUT
ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES OF THE N MOUNTAINS IN AN ADV FOR 1 TO 3
INCHES. THERE WILL BE A SHARP CUTOFF TO PRECIP WITH AREAS OF SE OH
STAYING MAINLY DRY PERHAPS. HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATIONS IN THE
W LOWLANDS INCLUDING THE CRW/PKB/HTS METRO AREAS. SHOULD THE
COLDER AND WETTER NAM TRENDS CONT...THEN A LITTLE MORE IN THE WAY
OF ACCUMULATIONS MAY MAKE IT INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER
LIGHT WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. PRECIPITATION WILL QUICKLY
OVERSPREAD MUCH OF THE AREA AFTER MIDNIGHT WITH MAINLY RAIN IN THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS WITH DEVELOPING MVFR CONDITIONS AND IFR OR WORSE SNOW
IN THE MOUNTAINS TO INCLUDE KBKW AND KEKN BY 09Z. THE RAIN MAY
CHANGE TO SNOW ACROSS THE LOWLAND TERMINALS BEFORE ENDING
WEDNESDAY MORNING...WITH THE GREATEST CHANCE AT IFR CONDITIONS AT
KCKB AND KCRW. THIS SYSTEM QUICKLY EXITS OFF TO THE NE BY EARLY
AFTERNOON WITH IMPROVING CONDITIONS FROM SW TO NE. SOME MVFR
STRATUS MAY LINGER THOUGH.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING PRECIP AND ASSOCIATED CONDITIONS MAY
VARY LATE TONIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ032-037>040.
     WINTER STORM WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 4 PM EST WEDNESDAY FOR
     WVZ046-047.
     WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ033>036.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 1 PM EST
     WEDNESDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251826
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
116 PM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN FOR THE FORECAST.
HIGH PRESSURE SLIDES EASTWARD FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...PROVIDING
WARM AIR ADVECTION. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON
SUNDAY OR SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT THEN HANGS NEAR THE AREA ON MONDAY
AS A WAVE MOVES ALONG THE FRONT...PUSHING IT SOUTHWARD MONDAY NIGHT.
THE FRONT WILL RETURN BACK NORTHWARD TUESDAY AS A WARM FRONT.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 251421
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251421
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 AM EST TUE NOV 25 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MOVING UP
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY BRINGS SNOW TO THE APPALACHIANS. WEAKER
SYSTEMS UNTIL EARLY FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
915 AM UPDATE...

UPDATED SKY GRIDS TO BETTER REFLECT CIRRUS CANOPY ACROSS THE
MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING. THIS SHOULD SHIFT E AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES...ONLY TO BE FOLLOWED BY INCREASE IN MID LEVEL MOISTURE
STREAMING IN SW FLOW ALOFT TOWARD THIS EVENING. PROBABLY WILL BE SOME
STRATOCU DEVELOPING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS AFTERNOON. ALL IN
ALL...A SEASONABLY COOL DAY ACROSS THE AREA.

ATTENTION QUICKLY TURNS TO FAST MOVING SYSTEM SLATED TO MOVE IN
OVERNIGHT AND EXIT TOMORROW AFTERNOON. LOOKS AS IF MOST OF OUR
CONCERN WILL COME WITH SHARP S/W TROF ROTATING THRU AS OPPOSED TO
DEVELOPING SURFACE LOW ALONG THE E COAST. JUST NOW LOOKING AT 12Z
NAM ROLLING IN AND LOOKS VERY SIMILAR TO 06Z RUN WHICH HAS PRECIP
FURTHER W MORE INTO THE LOWLANDS VERSUS SOME OF THE OTHER MODELS.
WILL WAIT TO SEE REMAINDER OF 12Z MODEL SUITE BEFORE MAKING A
DECISION CONCERNING HEADLINES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST TODAY...BRINGING
PLEASANT TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER THROUGH TONIGHT.

CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS LATE
TONIGHT...IN RESPONSE TO A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM STRENGTHENING ALONG
THE MID ATLANTIC COAST.

TEMPS WILL BE SEASONABLY COOL THROUGH TONIGHT...WITH TEMPERATURES
RANGING FROM 52 LOWLANDS THIS AFTERNOON...DROPPING INTO THE UPPER
20S HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO TONIGHT. USED
THE BIAS CORRECTED MET FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
LARGE STORM MOVING UP THE EAST COAST WILL SPREAD SNOW OVER THE
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY WHERE A WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS
IN EFFECT FOR UP TO 6 TO 8 INCHES OF SNOW AT THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

IN THIS PACKAGE...LOWERED TEMPS A BIT TO BRING SNOW TO LOWER
ELEVATIONS AND INCREASED WESTWARD EXTENT OF SNOW TO NEAR
HUNTINGTON PER 00Z GUIDANCE MOVING THE MOISTURE SLUG FURTHER WEST.
STILL NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH FOR A WARNING...BUT IT IS LOOKING MORE
LIKELY.

AFTER THE LARGE STORM MOVES OFF TO THE NORTH ANOTHER CLIPPER WILL
IMPACT THE AREA ON THANKSGIVING DAY GIVING A LIGHT DUSTING OF SNOW
TO MOST PLACES THEN WE DRY OUT FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF AND NAEFS MEAN FOR THE FORECAST. THIS
ALLOWS FOR SOME UPSLOPE SNOW THURSDAY NIGHT...SO WILL INCREASE POPS
THURSDAY EVENING. WARM ADVECTION THEN TAKES OVER FOR FRIDAY AND
SATURDAY. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION ON SUNDAY.
CONFIDENCE REMAINS LOW ON WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS BOUNDARY ON
MONDAY...SO FOR NOW WILL KEEP SOME LOW POPS AS IT COULD HANG OVER
THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SCATTERED MVFR CEILINGS HAVE DEVELOP ALONG THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS
AFFECTING BKW AND EKN. EXPECT THESE CLOUDS TO DISSIPATE BY EARLY
OR MID MORNING AS A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST.

EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS AT ALL SITES THROUGH THIS EVENING...UNDER LIGHT
WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AND TRACK NORTH ALONG
THE EASTERN SEA BOARD WEDNESDAY. SOME UNCERTAINTY EXISTS AMONG
MODELS ON THE INTENSITY OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE AMOUNT OF SNOW IT
CAN PRODUCE ALONG ITS PATH. FOR NOW...CODED MVFR CEILINGS UNDER
SNOW SHOWERS POSSIBLE BY WEDNESDAY...MAINLY EKN AND BKW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILINGS COULD FORM OVER HIGH ELEVATION SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS IN SNOW IS POSSIBLE OVER THE MOUNTAINS ON
WEDNESDAY...AND AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER STORM WATCH FROM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH WEDNESDAY
     AFTERNOON FOR WVZ046-047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JW
NEAR TERM...ARJ/30
SHORT TERM...JW
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...ARJ









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