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000
FXUS61 KRLX 290549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290549
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT TUE JUL 29 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
NO CHANGES THIS MORNING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VERY DIFFICULT AVIATION FORECAST. OBSERVATIONS ALREADY WITH A
HISTORY OF BOUNCING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DO SO AS PATCHY MID LEVEL
CLOUDS ADVECT THROUGH THE TERMINALS. HAD TO SET THE CONDITIONS ON
THE WIDER SIDE BECAUSE OF THIS...BUT HAVE TRIED TO CONFINE THEM TO
CONDITIONS THAT HAVE ALREADY OCCURRED WITH THE HOPE OF ACHIEVING
SOME CONSISTENCY. IN THE END...CLEARER SKIES COULD ALLOW FOR
VALLEY FOG...ONLY TO DISSIPATE IN CEILINGS AS CLOUD COVER
INCREASES.

ISOLATED CONVECTION POSSIBLE AGAIN ON TUESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: OBSERVATIONS WILL LIKELY BOUNCE...AND USED
TEMPOS MORE LIBERALLY THAN DESIRED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    L    L    L    H    M    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30/26
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 290241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON.

700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 290241
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1041 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

NO CHANGES. ISOLATE SHRA IN COAL FIELDS WILL DIE OFF SOON.

700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    L    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 290004
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
804 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...

FINESSED SKY GRIDS OVERNIGHT. LINE OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64
CORRIDOR CURRENTLY AHEAD OF A SMALL VORT LOBE. CARRIED SOME SMALL
POPS UNTIL ABOUT 06Z. FOG FCST TOUGH TONIGHT. MODELS INDICATE
QUITE A BIT MOISTURE IN THE H9 TO H85 LYR PIVOTING DOWN INTO SE OH
AND W WV LATE TONIGHT. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR CLOUDS TO REFORM
ASSUMING PARTIAL CLEARING THIS EVENING.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS
COOL AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS
CORRECTED DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS
WHICH LEADS TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WEDNESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BAND OF SHRA MOVING THRU I64 CORRIDOR AFFECTING KHTS/KCRW THRU
01Z AND PERHAPS KBKW. HAVE SOME TEMPO MVFR SHRA FOR THOSE TERMINALS.
OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THIS EVENING. TOUGH FG FCST
OVERNIGHT WITH MODELS TRYING TO REFORM CLOUDS...PERHAPS MVFR
STRATOCU...ACROSS SE OH AND W WV WHICH WOULD MITIGATE DENSE FG FOR
KHTS/KPKB. BELIEVE ENOUGH HOLES IN CLOUDS OVERNIGHT FOR SOME LATE
DENSE FG DEVELOPMENT FOR KEKN/KCRW WITH MAINLY MVFR FG KCKB/KBKW

VFR CONDITIONS RETURN ON TUESDAY WITH A SCT TO BKN 4 TO 6 THSD
FT STRATOCU.

SFC WINDS SLACKEN OVERNIGHT WITH MAINLY 5 TO 10 KT WINDS ON
TUESDAY OUT OF THE NW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 07/29/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC/30
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WENDESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH WEAK SHORT WAVE CROSSING THE GREAT LAKES
TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. A WEAK FRONT WILL PASS MAINLY TO OUR
NORTH ON WENDESDAY...MAINLY PRODUCING A FEW SHOWERS AS IT PASSES. COOL
DRY HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THERE IS A CHANCE FOR SOME SHOWERS LATE ON FRIDAY AND INTO THE
WEEKEND...AS A SYSTEM LIFTS UP FROM THE CAROLINAS. HIGH PRESSURE
AGAIN BUILDS IN FOR NEXT WEEK.

USED AND BLEND OF MODEL AND HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...KMC










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 281749
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 PM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
POST FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING THROUGH WITH COOLER AIR ALOFT HAS
ALLOWED ISOLD SPRINKLES TO FIRE OFF. HAVE NOT SEEN ANY LTG THUS
FAR THIS AFTERNOON. ONCE DAYTIME HEATING DECREASES...THESE SHOWERS
SHOULD SLACKEN OFF...ESPECIALLY AS FURTHER DRYING OF THE
ATMOSPHERE CONTINUES. MAIN TROUGH OVER THE EASTERN US WILL REMAIN
IN PLAY ON TUESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS ACROSS THE
OHIO VALLEY. TUESDAY SHOULD BE A FAIRLY DRY DAY PRECIP-WISE AS COOL
AND DRY AIRMASS SETTLES IN. FOR TEMPS...WILL GO WITH BIAS CORRECTED
DATA WITH A BLEND TOWARDS PREVIOUS OFFICIAL FORECASTS WHICH LEADS
TO ONLY A MINOR TWEAK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
STATCU DECK IN PLACE THIS AFTERNOON WITH CAA ALOFT. SLIGHT
CLEARING LINE EXTENDING ACROSS CENTRAL OH WILL DROP SOUTH LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING AND WILL ALLOW SOME OF THE CLOUDS TO
BREAK FROM NW TO SE. SOME ISOLD SHOWERS IN AUTO-CONVECTIVE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE INTO THIS EVENING. SFC GRADIENTS WILL
SLACKEN LATER THIS AFTERNOON TO ALLOW GUSTING WINDS TO DIE DOWN.

CLEARING TONIGHT ALONG WITH GENERAL SUBSIDENCE WILL ALLOW BL TO
DECOUPLE AND MOUNTAIN VALLEY FOG DEVELOPMENT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING MAY VARY ALONG WITH TIMING OF
MORNING IFR FOG DEVELOPMENT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...KMC







000
FXUS61 KRLX 281447
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOTED SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV INVOF OF POST
FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH RIVER BASIN. CAA
STRATCU COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...
NO MAJOR NEAR TERM CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 281447
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1047 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
NOTED SOME ISOLD TO SCT SHOWERS ACROSS NORTHERN WV INVOF OF POST
FRONTAL TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE NORTHERN OH RIVER BASIN. CAA
STRATCU COVERING MUCH OF THE REMAINING FORECAST AREA. DESPITE THE
CLOUDS AND MOISTURE AT THE LOW LEVELS...THE REMAINING ATMOSPHERIC
COLUMN IS UNDERGOING A DRYING TREND. CURRENT FORECAST ON TRACK...
NO MAJOR NEAR TERM CHANGES PLANNED.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26/KMC
NEAR TERM...KMC
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 281020
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED POPS BACK IN OVER THE TRI STATE AREA GIVEN MODEL
OUTPUT...ALTHOUGH MOS STATISTICS KEEPS HTS DRY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY
OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL
BRING THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS
IN ITS WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD
POOL THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LEADING EDGE OF A STRATUS DECK WILL BRING MVFR CEILINGS THIS
MORNING TO THE OHIO RIVER TERMINALS AND INTO CKB AND CRW. SHOULD
ONLY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS...WITH HEATING MIXING THIS LAYER OF
CLOUD COVER OUT BY 17Z.

COLD POOL CONVECTION AIDED BY A SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL FIRE THIS
AFTERNOON...BUT WILL ONLY CARRY VCTS WITH SHRA AT CKB AND EKN.
OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE CHANCES THAT ARE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING AND
TEMPOS FOR NOW.

SURFACE WINDS INCREASE THROUGH THE DAY WITH GUSTS TO 20KTS OUT OF
THE WEST. THESE WILL SUBSIDE DOWN BELOW 12KTS BY 00Z WEDNESDAY.

EXPECTING CLEARING TONIGHT AND THE DEVELOPMENT OF VALLEY
FOG...ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAIN VALLEYS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. CONVECTION MAY
NEED A TEMPO/AMD TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280716
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
316 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT MONDAY. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
FIRST COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE AREA AND EXPECT TO BE DRY OVER
THE NEXT FEW HOURS. AWAITING SECONDARY COLD FRONT WHICH WILL BRING
THE CONVECTION FOR THE DAY ALONG WITH THE CANADIAN AIRMASS IN ITS
WAKE. ASSISTING THE CONVECTION WILL BE THE UPPER LEVEL COLD POOL
THAT HAS SETTLED INTO THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. WITH THAT
SAID...HAVE SCALED BACK THE COVERAGE OF THE POPS TODAY...AND
FIGURE THE NORTHEASTERN ZONES ARE THE MOST LIKELY TO RECEIVE
RAINFALL. WILL NOT GET TOO MUCH IN THE WAY OF VERTICAL EXTENT WITH
A CAP IN PLACE AROUND 650HPA.

AS THE COOLER AIR POURS IN...EXPECT ANOTHER JULY DAY WITH LOWLAND
70S AND MOUNTAIN 60S. SNOWSHOE WILL STRUGGLE TO GET TO 60F
TODAY...BUT THINK IT WILL ULTIMATELY HAPPEN. LOWLAND 50S AND
MOUNTAIN 40S ON TAP FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
ANOMALOUSLY DEEP UPPER TROUGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR OVER THE EASTERN
THIRD OF THE U.S. WILL KEEP A SUPPLY OF COOL AIR FROM CANADA. EXCEPT
FOR AN UPPER DISTURBANCE AND WEAK FRONT DROPPING ACROSS THE AREA
WEDNESDAY WITH A FEW SHOWERS NORTH...EXPECT DRY AND COOL CANADIAN
HIGH PRESSURE TO DOMINATE THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 280529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
129 AM EDT MON JUL 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
UPDATE...
CONVECTION WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS IN THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
TSRA WILL EXIT THE MOUNTAINS OVER THE NEXT HOUR OR TWO.

MODELS ARE BRINGING IN LOW STRATUS LATE TONIGHT...WHICH LOOKS LIKE
THE BEST BET GIVEN THE WINDS THAT SHOULD STAY IN THE 5-10KT RANGE
PREVENTING FOG FORMATION. WILL KEEP THE CEILINGS MVFR OVERNIGHT
WITH VFR VISIBILITIES.

THE COLD FRONT WILL DROP SOUTH TOMORROW...GIVING CONVECTION
CHANCES FOR THE NORTHERN TERMINALS OF PKB...CKB...AND EKN. WILL
NOT CARRY THIS IN THE SOUTHERN TAF SITES.

WINDS PICK UP WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH GUSTS IN THE 20KT
RANGE GENERALLY OUT OF THE WEST. THESE WINDS WILL COME BACK DOWN
AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...WITH MORE VEERING TO THE NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR CEILING ONSET MAY VARY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF
IFR CONDITIONS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    H    H    L    L    L    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...30/26
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30

HYDROLOGY...26








000
FXUS61 KRLX 280156
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
956 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE...
945 PM UPDATE...

STILL A SVR THREAT...MAINLY LOW TOPPED ROTATING CELLS FOR THE NEXT
HR OR TWO. COVERAGE OF CONVECTION SCT AND MAINLY CONFINED IN N
MTNS AND ACRSS NE KY/SE OH ON BKN LINE AHEAD OF THE FRONT.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
ISOLATED TO SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION MOVING THROUGH WITH IFR
CONDITIONS FOR ANY TERMINAL THAT TAKES A HIT THRU 03Z.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TONIGHT MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  MON 07/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...30






000
FXUS61 KRLX 272124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 PM UPDATE...

EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS
AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS.
NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH
JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED
BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE
BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...








000
FXUS61 KRLX 272124
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
524 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...MESOSCALE UPDATE...
500 PM UPDATE...

EARLIER CLOUDS HAVE REALLY DENTED CONVECTIVE INITIALIZATION THIS
AFTN ACROSS ALMOST ALL OF CWA. SOME PARTIAL CLEARING THOUGH IN
THE LAST FEW HRS ACROSS WV HAS ALLOWED SOME SFC HEATING AND WITH
VERY FAVORABLE DYNAMICS AND SHEAR...CANT RULE OUT SOME STORMS
FIRING ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND INTO THE MTNS NEXT FEW HRS.
NONETHELESS...A VERY STOUT DRY AIR PUNCH IN THE H7-H6 LYR IS
RAPIDLY ADVANCING E THRU S OH AND N KY AHEAD OF COLD FRONT. THIS
IS CLEARLY EVIDENT ON SATELLITE IMAGERY WITH LACK OF VERTICAL CU
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS N KY. THIS WILL ESSENTIALLY CAP US OUT WITH
JUST A BKN LINE WITH COLD FRONT LATER. SO THE WINDOW FOR STRONG TO
SVR STORMS SEEMS TO BE CLOSING. HAVE DROPPED POPS CONSIDERABLY
ACROSS MOST AREAS THIS AFTN EXCEPT SW VA WHICH IS GETTING CLIPPED
BY E KY CONVECTION. DID ALLOW SOME RAMP UP IN THE MTNS THIS EVE
BUT OTHERWISE...CAPPING WITH CHANCE POPS AND SCT WORDING. NIXED
FLASH FLOOD WATCH GIVEN LACK OF COVERAGE. WILL BE EVALUATING
TORNADO WATCH SHORTLY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS
THE CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY
12Z MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL
LAG AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN
FACT GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE
MAIN CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK
HOWEVER...WITH ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE
MUCH OF THE PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED
POPS AS THE DAY PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER
AIR POST-TROUGH WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF
CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50/30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271934
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z
MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT
GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN
CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH
WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271934
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
334 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS PASSES EAST TONIGHT. UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH
LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERNIGHT...VIGOROUS UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO DIG E/SE-WARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL GREAT LAKES TOWARDS THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES AREA BY 12Z
MON...WITH LARGE SCALE FORCING FOR DESCENT OVERSPREADING THE
FORECAST AREA BY AND AFTER 06Z MON. ASSOC SURFACE COLD FRONT WILL
PUSH ACROSS FROM WEST TO EAST ROUGHLY BTWN 02Z-06Z WITH ONLY A
SUBTLE WIND SHIFT. STILL EXPECTING THE BULK OF THE ORGANIZED
CONVECTION TO PUSH EASTWARD BY THE 00Z MON TIME FRAME...BUT WILL LAG
AT LEAST CHANCE POPS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF. SOME STORMS IN FACT
GOING UP JUST EAST OF CHICAGO AT THIS TIME...WELL BEHIND THE MAIN
CLUSTER IN CENTRAL OH. GENERAL FORECAST IS ON TRACK HOWEVER...WITH
ONLY MINOR MAINLY COSMETIC ADJUSTMENTS. STILL HAVE MUCH OF THE
PRECIP ENDING BTWN 06Z-12Z BUT ALLOW FOR INCREASED POPS AS THE DAY
PROGRESSES MONDAY WITH A SECONDARY PUSH OF COOLER AIR POST-TROUGH
WITH A RIPPLE MOVING THROUGH THE BACKSIDE ON NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT.
MAX TEMPS IN THE MID 70S WITH PLENTY OF CLOUD COVER STILL APPEAR ON
TRACK.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A SECONDARY COLD FRONT SLIDES FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH ANOTHER
REINFORCING BATCH OF SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY
EVENING.

A COOLER AIRMASS WILL MOVE OUR WAY UNDER NORTHERLY FLOW TO PRODUCE
FRESHER TEMPERATURES...GENERALLY IN THE MID TO LOW 70S
LOWLANDS...RANGING TO THE LOWER 60S HIGHER ELEVATIONS. MODELS SHOW
H850 TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE UPPER SINGLE DIGITS UNDER WEAK NORTH
NORTHWEST FLOW.

BROAD HIGH PRESSURE...EXTENDING FROM THE NORTHERN PLAINS...EAST
SOUTHEAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV...WILL PROVIDE DRY AND COOLER
THAN NORMAL TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HOWEVER...H5 CHARTS
SUGGEST ADDITIONAL WEAK SHORTWAVES IN THE PERIPHERY OF THE MAIN
STRONG UPPER LEVEL LOW WAY NORTH OVER CANADA.

USED THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES IN CONTROL THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK...WITH
NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

USED HPC GUIDANCE FOR MOST PART OF THE FORECAST ELEMENTS THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...50








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

130 PM UPDATE...MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE MAKING THE EVOLUTION OF
TODAY/S THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL COMPLEX...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO FORM NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. MEANWHILE THE ONGOING COMPLEX MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
SOMEWHAT. HAVE JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCHES 445 AND 445 INTO THE
MID-EVENING HOURS.

1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV/50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271752
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
152 PM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...

130 PM UPDATE...MESOSCALE PROCESSES ARE MAKING THE EVOLUTION OF
TODAY/S THUNDERSTORM AND SEVERE WX POTENTIAL COMPLEX...BUT
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO FORM NORTHWEST OF OUR AREA
ALONG THE COLD FRONT ITSELF. MEANWHILE THE ONGOING COMPLEX MAINLY
ACROSS CENTRAL AND EASTERN KY IS GETTING ITS ACT TOGETHER
SOMEWHAT. HAVE JUST ISSUED TORNADO WATCHES 445 AND 445 INTO THE
MID-EVENING HOURS.

1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
18Z SUNDAY THRU 18Z MONDAY...

STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL OHIO AND
EASTERN KENTUCKY WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE RAPIDLY EASTWARD. THESE
WILL TRANSVERSE THE AREA WEST TO EAST PRIMARILY BTWN 18Z-19Z
ACROSS SE OHIO...CENTRAL WV AROUND 20Z-21Z...AND PUSHING INTO THE
MOUNTAINS AROUND THE 23Z SUN TO 02Z MON TIME FRAME. AGAIN...SOME
OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. STRONG WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ARE
POSSIBLE...AND THE THREAT OF A TORNADO EXISTS. AVIATION INTERESTS
SHOULD REMAIN AWARE OF RAPIDLY-CHANGING CONDITIONS.

AFTER 03Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV/50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271445
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
MVFR/IFR IN CLOUDS/FOG THRU 13Z OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 13Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 02Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER A MINIMUM OF
MORNING CONVECTION. BEST TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE MORE WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION RATHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.
AGAIN...CONVECTION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

AFTER 02Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 271445
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1045 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...FORECAST IS GENERALLY ON TRACK WITH SOME FINE-
TUNING OF POPS PER CURRENT RADAR TRENDS. SPC HAS REDUCED THE
MODERATE RISK AREA FOR OUR FORECAST AREA TO INCLUDE MAINLY THE
SOUTHWEST QUARTER OF OUR FORECAST AREA.

6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
MVFR/IFR IN CLOUDS/FOG THRU 13Z OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 13Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 02Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER A MINIMUM OF
MORNING CONVECTION. BEST TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE MORE WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION RATHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.
AGAIN...CONVECTION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

AFTER 02Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 271052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
MVFR/IFR IN CLOUDS/FOG THRU 13Z OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 13Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 02Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER A MINIMUM OF
MORNING CONVECTION. BEST TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE MORE WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION RATHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.
AGAIN...CONVECTION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

AFTER 02Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 271052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...PUT A RELATIVE MIN IN POPS THIS MORNING BEFORE
CONVECTION FARTHER WEST AHEAD OF COLD FRONT AFFECTS US LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON. ALSO TRENDED FASTER IN LESSENING POPS LATER
THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...AS MODELS SHOW MID LEVEL DRY SLOT RACING
OUT AHEAD OF THE FRONT ITSELF.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SUNDAY THRU 12Z MONDAY...
MVFR/IFR IN CLOUDS/FOG THRU 13Z OVER SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA FROM
PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 13Z...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 02Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 06Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE AHEAD OF
THE FRONT TODAY...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER A MINIMUM OF
MORNING CONVECTION. BEST TIMING OF THE STORMS WILL BE MORE WITH THE
MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION RATHER THAN THE FRONT ITSELF LATER THIS
MORNING AND AFTERNOON...WELL AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.
AGAIN...CONVECTION DIMINISHES FROM WEST TO EAST THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT AS MID LEVEL DRY INTRUSION
OVERSPREADS THE AREA.

AFTER 02Z...MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH COLD ADVECTION AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WHICH
MAY RESULT IN CONTINUED SCATTERED LIGHT SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY...AS WELL AS ONSET OF MVFR CEILINGS
TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270922
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
510 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
5 AM UPDATE...CUT WAY BACK ON CONVECTION THRU 14Z...JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY. MVFR CLOUDS/FOG THRU
12Z IN RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW CKB
EKN...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 14Z...AFTER
A MINIMUM OF MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR TREND TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF AREA
BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 270915
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
5 AM UPDATE...CUT WAY BACK ON CONVECTION THRU 14Z...JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY. MVFR CLOUDS/FOG THRU
12Z IN RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW AND
EKN...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 14Z...AFTER
A MINIMUM OF MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR TREND TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF AREA
BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270915
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
504 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
09Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
5 AM UPDATE...CUT WAY BACK ON CONVECTION THRU 14Z...JUST SCATTERED
SHOWERS POSSIBLE. THINGS RAMP UP AGAIN SUNDAY. MVFR CLOUDS/FOG THRU
12Z IN RAIN COOLED AIR FROM PREVIOUS CONVECTION...MAINLY AT BKW AND
EKN...OTHERWISE VFR CEILINGS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z AND
THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY
AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER 14Z...AFTER
A MINIMUM OF MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE STORMS MAY BE SEVERE.
OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY SPREADING SOUTHEASTWARD FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.
LOOK FOR TREND TO MVFR CEILINGS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS MOST OF AREA
BY 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE...AND SEVERITY OF
THUNDERSTORMS TODAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014...CORRECTED FOR HYDRO.

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV














000
FXUS61 KRLX 270809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
358 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014...CORRECTED FOR HYDRO.

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING
CONVECTION. COOLER AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV















000
FXUS61 KRLX 270758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014...CORRECTED FOR HYDRO.

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND STRONG STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270758
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
345 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014...CORRECTED FOR HYDRO.

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND STRONG STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT MAY
PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY RAINFALL TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT. AMPLE
MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE
TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE
SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT
TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 270757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND STRONG STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270757
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
327 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT AND STRONG STORMS TODAY. UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL
AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY...WITH LINGERING CONVECTION. COOLER
AND DRIER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
THE KENTUCKY MESOSCALE THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX THAT SEVERELY DISTORTED
THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN YESTERDAY AND LAST NIGHT WILL DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO TRACK SOUTH AND EAST INTO LESS FAVORABLE
AIR. HOWEVER...THE EVOLUTION OF THE BOUNDARY IT SET UP FROM SOUTHERN
INDIANA INTO SOUTH CENTRAL KENTUCKY...EVIDENT IN NEW THUNDERSTORMS
EARLY THIS MORNING...WILL BE A KEY FACTOR IN ANY ALTERATION OF THE
SYNOPTIC PATTERN FORECAST BY THE MODELS TODAY. THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO ADVERTISE THAT THE IMPRESSIVE SYNOPTIC SCALE PARAMETERS AHEAD OF
A STRONG COLD FRONT MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING WILL BE THE MAIN PLAYER. THIS MEANS THE EARLY MORNING
CONVECTION ALONG THAT BOUNDARY SHOULD DISSIPATE AS IT TRIES TO MOVE
EAST NORTHEAST LATER THIS MORNING INTO WORKED OVER AIR. THIS WILL IN
TURN AID THE CONVECTIVELY INDUCED BOUNDARY TO DISSIPATE WITH MIXING
OR LIFT IT BACK NORTH AND EAST...ALLOWING THE ATMOSPHERE TO RECOVER
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT. WITH HPC AND SPC CONTINUING TO GO WITH THE
SYNOPTIC THINKING...WE WILL ALSO GO WITH IT WHICH MEANS THAT SEVERE
THUNDERSTORM AND FLASH FLOOD POTENTIAL WILL CONTINUE UNTIL THE FRONT
EXITS EARLY TONIGHT. THUS...WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH GOING.
WILL KEEP HIGH POPS AND MENTION SEVERE AND WATER IN THE FORECAST
UNTIL THE FRONT GO THROUGH. GIVEN THE RICH ATMOSPHERE AND ANY NUMBER
OF ADDITIONAL DISTURBANCES AHEAD OF THE MAIN SHOW WITH THE FRONT.
BELIEVE THE MODELS MAY BE TOO HIGH ON THE TEMPS TODAY...WILL KEEP
HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH ALL THE CLOUDS AND
CONVECTION.

PROBABLY A RELATIVE BREAK IN THE SHOWERS TONIGHT BEHIND THE COLD
FRONT...BEFORE YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT SWINGS DOWN MONDAY OUT OF OHIO
UNDER THE AMPLIFYING UPPER TROUGH. WILL DECREASE POPS FROM WEST TO
EAST FAIRLY EARLY TONIGHT AND DROP THUNDER POTENTIAL...BEFORE POPS
RAMP BACK UP LATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270708
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
308 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
SECONDARY COLD FRONT DROPS IN WITH ANOTHER REINFORCING BATCH OF
SHOWERS AND STORMS IN COOLER AIR ALOFT MONDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
ADVECTION OF A COOLER AIRMASS AT THE SURFACE OCCURS IN NORTHERLY
FLOW AS THICKNESSES DROP INTO THE UPPER 550S WITH SOME SINGLE DIGIT
850MB TEMPERATURES. HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS WILL BECOME THE DOMINANT FEATURE OVER OUR AREA...BUT THE
UPPER LEVEL TROUGH OVER JAMES BAY WILL KEEP THE POTENTIAL FOR WEAK
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEMS TO DROP THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. THROUGH THE
END OF THE SHORT TERM...THE FORECAST IS PRIMARILY DRY WITH A COOL
END TO THE MONTH OF JULY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...JMV








000
FXUS61 KRLX 270649
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED OUTSIDE OF MVFR
FOG WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV














000
FXUS61 KRLX 270609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED WITH ENOUGH WIND
FLOW...EVEN WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 270609
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
149 AM EDT SUN JUL 27 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM THIS MORNING/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
06Z SUNDAY THRU 06Z MONDAY...
UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS FROM WEST TO EAST THE REMAINDER OF
TONIGHT...WITH CONTINUED THREAT OF SHOWERS AND STORMS. LOOK FOR VFR
CEILINGS OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION. NO FOG ANTICIPATED WITH ENOUGH WIND
FLOW...EVEN WHERE IT RAINS.

ON SUNDAY...A STRONG COLD FRONT REACHES THE OHIO RIVER BY 00Z
AND THE MOUNTAINS AROUND 03Z. WITH A VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON
SUNDAY AHEAD OF THE FRONT...MORE THUNDERSTORMS ARE LIKELY AFTER
15Z...AFTER A RELATIVE MINIMUM IN MORNING CONVECTION. SOME OF THE
STORMS MAY BE SEVERE. AGAIN...OUTSIDE OF CONVECTION EXPECT VFR
CEILINGS.

AFTER 00Z MVFR CEILINGS GRADUALLY DROPPING SOUTHEAST FROM
OHIO...ASSOCIATED WITH A SECONDARY COLD FRONT AND SCATTERED SHOWERS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 07/27/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES MAY PRODUCE AREAS OF HEAVY
RAINFALL THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG
FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO
COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND
LOW LYING AREAS WITH REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD
WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
FOR OUR ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-
     024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-
     083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV

HYDROLOGY...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270115
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS
SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS CAP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 270115
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
913 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 4 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE ONCE AGAIN TOO SLOW WITH THE DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS
INDIANA. WILL UPDATE THE FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER
TIMING.

&&

.SHORT TERM /4 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS
SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS CAP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 262252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE WAY TOO SLOW WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THE MOMENT. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER TIMING AND TO RAISE POPS
ALONG ITS PATH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS
SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS CAP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
HYDROLOGY...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 262252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
637 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY. COLD
FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH
MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
MODELS ARE WAY TOO SLOW WITH DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS THE NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHEAST OHIO AT THE MOMENT. WILL UPDATE THE
FORECAST TO BETTER REFLECT THIS FASTER TIMING AND TO RAISE POPS
ALONG ITS PATH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /3 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVING ACROSS NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA
PROVIDING SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS EVENING. THE AREA
CURRENTLY OVER IL SHOULD MOVE INTO OUR REGION LATER TONIGHT. CAN NOT
RULE OUT SOME BRIEF FOG IN AREAS THAT RECEIVE RAINFALL THIS
EVENING...BUT INCREASING WIND GRADIENT LATER TONIGHT MEANS ANY FOG
THAT DOES FORM SHOULD NOT REMAIN THROUGH MORNING.

WITH VERY UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE ON SUNDAY...SOME MORE THUNDERSTORMS
ARE POSSIBLE. TIMING OF THESE STORMS IS IN QUESTION HOWEVER...AS GFS
SHOWS A LATE AFTERNOON DRY AIR CAP MOVING OVER THE REGION. NAM DOES
NOT SHOW THIS CAP.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS EVENING...THEN LOW.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: LOCATION...DENSITY...AND TIMING OF ANY FOG
DEVELOPING IN ARE THAT RECEIVE RAIN THIS EVENING COULD VARY. TIMING
OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TONIGHT AND SUNDAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...RPY
HYDROLOGY...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261956
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG STORMS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY.
LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST IN GENERAL. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

18Z RADAR DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FORM OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NW OHIO. THESE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING NW ZONES BY THE
21Z-22Z TIME FRAME. THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL RESIDES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST OHIO...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NW ZONES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERAL THINKING IS THAT A MCS-TYPE
FEATURE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID/LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE STRONG WIND
THREAT WITH IT. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL EARLY MORNING BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STORMS FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE A CONCERN AS WELL. STILL COMING UP
WITH 1.50IN TO 2.25IN OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MON. IN
COLLAB WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 07Z MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL BY TUESDAY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GREAT LAKES REGION...OH VALLEY...SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

HOWEVER...THE STUBBORN MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV
THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...SOME CLOUDS AT BEST.

USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 21Z FAR SE OHIO
ZONES. LATER OVERNIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS THAT IT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELATIVE LULL
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ITS WAKE...WITH AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM. MORE GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261956
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
356 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL AFFECT THE AREA THROUGH MONDAY.
STRONG STORMS TONIGHT. COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY.
LINGERING CONVECTION THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NOT MUCH OVERALL CHANGE FROM PREV FCST IN GENERAL. PRIMARY
FORECAST CONCERN REVOLVES AROUND SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENTIAL
OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS...AS WELL AS HEAVY
RAINFALL POTENTIAL.

18Z RADAR DEPICTING THUNDERSTORMS JUST NOW BEGINNING TO FORM OVER
NORTHERN INDIANA AND NW OHIO. THESE WILL PUSH SOUTHEAST OVER THE
COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS AND SHOULD BE ENTERING NW ZONES BY THE
21Z-22Z TIME FRAME. THE BETTER SEVERE POTENTIAL RESIDES NORTH AND
WEST OF THE FORECAST AREA ACROSS CENTRAL/WEST OHIO...BUT THERE IS
SOME POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX WITH THESE STORMS AS THEY MOVE INTO THE
NW ZONES. SOME UNCERTAINTY STILL RESIDES WITH THE OVERALL EVOLUTION
OF OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...BUT GENERAL THINKING IS THAT A MCS-TYPE
FEATURE WILL ROLL ACROSS THE AREA WEST TO EAST DURING THE MID/LATE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WHICH WILL BRING MAINLY A STRAIGHT-LINE STRONG WIND
THREAT WITH IT. EXPECT A RELATIVE LULL EARLY MORNING BEFORE
POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE WX RAMPS UP ONCE AGAIN LATE MORNING AND INTO
THE AFTERNOON HOURS AS STORMS FIRE ALONG A COLD FRONT. STRONG WINDS
AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY HAZARDS. SPC HAS PLACE MOST OF
THE FORECAST AREA UNDER A MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR
SUNDAY. HEAVY RAINFALL TOTALS ARE A CONCERN AS WELL. STILL COMING UP
WITH 1.50IN TO 2.25IN OF QPF OVER MUCH OF THE AREA BY EARLY MON. IN
COLLAB WITH SHORT-TERM FORECASTER AND SURROUNDING OFFICES...ELECTED
TO HOIST A FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR THE FORECAST AREA THROUGH 07Z MON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE WILL DROP FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV SUNDAY NIGHT. THE
GFS AND NAM HAVE THIS FEATURE BECOMING A CLOSED LOW ACROSS
NORTHERN OH AND PA BY 06Z MONDAY. STRONG VORTICITY MAXIMA
ASSOCIATED WITH THIS LOW APPROACHES TO OUR AREA BY 06Z MONDAY.

WITH RESIDUAL MOISTURE FROM PREVIOUS SYSTEMS...STRONG DYNAMIC
FORCING AND PATTERN RECOGNITION...CODED LIKELY POPS WITH THIS
SYSTEM FOR MONDAY...KEEPING LIKELY POPS MONDAY NIGHT OVER THE
EASTERN MOUNTAINS.

WITH THE PCPN EXPECTED TONIGHT AND SUNDAY...SOILS SHOULD BE NEAR
SATURATED...POSING A THREAT FOR ADDITIONAL FLASH FLOODING ON
MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. ANOTHER FLASH FLOOD WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR
THAT TIME PERIOD.

WESTERLY FLOW BECOMES NORTHWEST BY 21Z MONDAY...BRINGING A CHANGE
IN AIR MASS TO THE AREA. THEREFORE...EXPECT PLEASANT TEMPERATURES
WITH FRESH AIR...CLOUD COVER...AND COOLING SHOWERS.

WENT CLOSER TO ALL BLEND CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES WITH MINOR
TWEAKS THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BROAD HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL BY TUESDAY
FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...GREAT LAKES REGION...OH VALLEY...SOUTH
TO THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES.

HOWEVER...THE STUBBORN MAIN LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ANCHORED IN CANADA
WILL CONTINUE TO BRING VORTICITY LOBES ACROSS THE OH VALLEY AND WV
THROUGH MID WEEK. WITH DRY AIR ALOFT AND LIMITED MOISTURE IN THE
LOW LEVELS...EXPECT MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS...SOME CLOUDS AT BEST.

USED HPC GUIDANCE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.
&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 21Z FAR SE OHIO
ZONES. LATER OVERNIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS THAT IT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELATIVE LULL
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ITS WAKE...WITH AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM. MORE GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.HYDROLOGY...
A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES WILL PRODUCE CONSECUTIVE
EPISODES OF HEAVY RAINFALL TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. AMPLE MOISTURE
IN THE LOW LEVELS AND STRONG FORCING ALOFT CAN BE CONDUCIVE TO
FLASH FLOODING. THIS SCENARIO COULD PRODUCE FLASH FLOODING OF
STREETS...CREEKS...SMALL STREAMS AND LOW LYING AREAS WITH
REPETITIVE SHOWERS OR STORMS. A FLASH FLOOD WATCH IS IN EFFECT
FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OUR ENTIRE
CWA.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50

HYDROLOGY...ARJ








000
FXUS61 KRLX 261917
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 21Z FAR SE OHIO
ZONES. LATER OVERNIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS THAT IT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELATIVE LULL
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ITS WAKE...WITH AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM. MORE GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261917
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
317 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
18Z SATURDAY THRU 18Z SUNDAY...
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE BY 21Z FAR SE OHIO
ZONES. LATER OVERNIGHT A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX APPEARS THAT IT MAY
AFFECT THE REGION FROM WEST TO EAST. EXPECT A FAIRLY RELATIVE LULL
IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY IN ITS WAKE...WITH AN INCREASE ONCE AGAIN
DURING THE LATE MORNING HOURS ACROSS THE WEST. A GOOD AMOUNT OF
UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS WITH THIS SCENARIO. THE POTENTIAL FOR
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS EXISTS...WITH STRONG WINDS AND LARGE HAIL
POSSIBLE. EXPECT PRIMARILY VFR THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS...BUT MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS WILL OF COURSE BE POSSIBLE
UNDERNEATH A STRONG STORM. MORE GENERAL MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS WILL
BE LIKELY TOWARDS THE DAWN HOURS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA SATURDAY NIGHT
IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50
NEAR TERM...50
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR
AT EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV/50









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR
AT EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR WVZ005>011-013>020-024>040-046-047.
OH...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR OHZ066-067-075-076-083>087.
KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FROM MIDNIGHT EDT TONIGHT THROUGH LATE
     SUNDAY NIGHT FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV/50










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR
AT EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 261433
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1033 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030 AM UPDATE...
WATCHING ONE FAIRLY SMALL BUT STOUT AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
OVER SOUTHEAST INDIANA AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST OHIO AT THIS TIME. IF
IT HOLDS TOGETHER IT WOULD MAKE IT INTO OUR KENTUCKY COUNTIES BY
AROUND 16Z-17Z. HI-RES CONVECTIVE MODELS ARE INSISTENT UPON THIS
ACTIVITY DISSIPATING BY THE TIME IT REACHES THAT AREA...YET CLOUD
HEIGHTS/TEMPS MAINTAINING THEMSELVES AT THIS POINT. ADDED
SLIGHT/LOW CHANCE POPS...AS WELL AS ACCOMPANYING SKY COVER...FOR THE
KENTUCKY COUNTIES AND EXTREME SOUTH-CENTRAL OHIO COUNTIES FOR A FEW
HOURS EARLY THIS AFTERNOON TO ACCOUNT FOR THAT POTENTIAL.
OTHERWISE...FORECAST FOR REMAINDER OF AREA IS ON TRACK.

6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR
AT EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/50
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 261032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
610 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR AT
EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 261032
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
610 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
6 AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
12Z SATURDAY THRU 12Z SUNDAY...
OCCASIONAL MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY FOG TIL 13Z...EXCEPT LOCALLY IFR AT
EKN. OTHERWISE...SCT-BKN CLOUDS AOA 8000 FEET AGL THRU 15Z
ASSOCIATED WITH WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCE. AFTER 15Z...GENERALLY
SCATTERED DIURNAL CU.

A THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
WEST AND NORTHWEST...WHICH MAY REACH OHIO RIVER BY 06Z...AND
OVER MOST OF THE AREA BY 12Z SUNDAY. GREAT UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE
DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF ORGANIZED THUNDERSTORMS...LEADS TO A TAF
FORECAST THAT BRINGS GENERAL MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND
SCATTERED STORMS FROM WEST TO EAST TONIGHT...ESPECIALLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND COVERAGE OF EARLY MORNING FOG WILL
VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 260812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE VFR CEILINGS AOA
8000 FEET. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG TO SCATTERED MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY
FOG 08Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...BECOMING SCATTERED CU WITH HEATING AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND MAY REACH JUST PAST OHIO RIVER AROUND 06Z. GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX
ALONG WITH THE LATENESS OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT...LEADS A TAF
FORECAST TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
TO PKB ONLY AND JUST SHY OF HTS BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THRU 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 07/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 260812
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
412 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE VFR CEILINGS AOA
8000 FEET. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG TO SCATTERED MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY
FOG 08Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...BECOMING SCATTERED CU WITH HEATING AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND MAY REACH JUST PAST OHIO RIVER AROUND 06Z. GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX
ALONG WITH THE LATENESS OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT...LEADS A TAF
FORECAST TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
TO PKB ONLY AND JUST SHY OF HTS BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THRU 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 07/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV










000
FXUS61 KRLX 260728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE VFR CEILINGS AOA
8000 FEET. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG TO SCATTERED MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY
FOG 08Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...BECOMING SCATTERED CU WITH HEATING AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND MAY REACH JUST PAST OHIO RIVER AROUND 06Z. GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX
ALONG WITH THE LATENESS OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT...LEADS A TAF
FORECAST TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
TO PKB ONLY AND JUST SHY OF HTS BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THRU 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 07/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV









000
FXUS61 KRLX 260728
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
328 AM EDT SAT JUL 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL LOW WITH DISTURBANCES IN THE FLOW THROUGH TONIGHT.
COLD FRONT WITH STRONG STORMS SUNDAY. LINGERING CONVECTION IN THE
UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH MONDAY. COOLER AIRMASS SETTLES IN PLACE
THROUGH MID WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A VIGOROUS SHORT WAVE APPROACHING
FROM THE WEST TONIGHT...WITH A WELL DEFINED WARM FRONT FOR THIS TIME
OF YEAR LIFTING NORTH AND EAST TOWARD OUR AREA. GIVEN THE STRENGTH
OF THE DYNAMICS AND A MODERATE 850 MB SOUTHWESTERLY JET FEEDING WARM
AND QUITE MOIST AIR NORTHWARD...THE MODELS TARGET THE BEST
COMBINATION OF THESE PARAMETERS RIGHT ACROSS OUR AREA...MAINLY
LATER TONIGHT IN THE FORM OF AN MCS. WITH HPC AND SPC ALSO TARGETING
OUR AREA WITH A RISK FOR BOTH SEVERE STORMS AND EXCESSIVE
RAINFALL...HAVE TO GO WITH THIS SCENARIO. THIS BRINGS CAT POPS FROM
THE WEST AND NORTHWEST ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT...AGAIN MAINLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...OF SOME CONCERN IS THE EFFECTS OF A STILL
NORTHWESTERLY COMPONENT OF THE 1000-5000 MB THICKNESS FIELDS...WHICH
MAY PULL THE ANTICIPATED COMPLEX FORMING WELL UPSTREAM LATER TODAY
MORE SOUTHEASTWARD INTO KENTUCKY. AT THIS POINT THOUGH...FROM ALL
THAT IS MENTIONED ABOVE...CONFIDENCE IS NOT HIGH ENOUGH TO DEVIATE
FROM GUIDANCE. WILL MENTION THESE CONCERNS IN THE HAZARDOUS WEATHER
PRODUCT FOR NOW...UNTIL WE GET MORE CONFIDENCE IN THE EVOLUTION OF
THINGS TODAY BEFORE ANY WATCHES ARE CONSIDERED.

OH YES...ABOUT TODAY. TODAY WILL BE THE TRANSITION TO THE SETUP FOR
TONIGHT. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SHIFTING FARTHER OFF TO THE EAST WILL
ALLOW STRONG WARM AND MOIST ADVECTION ON INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
FLOW. EARLY MORNING UPPER DISTURBANCE WITH THE WIDESPREAD MID CLOUDS
WILL LIFT OUT BY MID MORNING...BEING REPLACED BY A SCATTERED CU
FIELD THIS AFTERNOON WITH LACK OF UPPER DISTURBANCES. THUS...KEEPING
THINGS DRY BUT MUCH WARMER AND MORE HUMID TODAY UNDER A GOOD DEAL OF
SUNSHINE. GOING ON THE WARMER SIDE OF GUIDANCE WITH HIGHS
APPROACHING 90 DEGREES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
BEST PLACE TO START WITH THIS FORECAST IS THE MODERATE RISK FROM SPC
IN THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS FOR SUNDAY INTO
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALSO HAVE THE POTENTIAL FOR EXCESSIVE RAINFALL.

UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL DIVE INTO TH GREAT LAKES FROM THE NORTHERN
PLAINS LATE THIS WEEKEND WITH YET ANOTHER DYNAMIC SYSTEM. WILL
LIKELY BE DEALING WITH A LATE NIGHT MCS  TOWARDS THE BEGINNING OF
THE SHORT TERM FORECAST BRINGING A WIND THREAT. THIS COULD WORK TO
DESTABILIZE THE ATMOSPHERE LATER IN THE DAY WITH COOLING TO THE MID
LEVELS AS THE SURFACE RECOVERS UNDER SOLAR INSOLATION...THUS
INCREASING THE LOW AND MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES INTO THE LATE AFTERNOON
AND EVENING SUNDAY. STORMS WILL FORM ALONG THE STRONG COLD FRONT AND
PROPAGATE RAPIDLY WITH AN OBVIOUS WIND THREAT AS WELL AS LARGE HAIL.
AS THE SPEED SHEAR INCREASES WITH THE APPROACHING OF THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW...SO DOES THE DIRECTIONAL SHEAR OVER THE LOW LEVELS...AND WILL
SEE SOME VEERING WITH HEIGHT.

RAPID DRYING ALOFT ABOVE 700MB OCCURS AFTER 00Z MONDAY...BUT AS THE
UPPER LOW ROTATES INTO LAKE ERIE...ANOTHER AXIS OF MOISTURE WILL
DROP IN FROM THE NORTH. THIS KEEPS THE POPS GOING AFTER A SHORT
REPRIEVE INTO THE MONDAY TIME FRAME.

IN THE END...THIS COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE WILL BRING YET ANOTHER
SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN AIRMASS...IN A JULY THAT HAS SEEN A STEADY
DOSE OF THESE COLD FRONTS THAT HAVE USHERED IN INFLUENCES FROM
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE. MAX TEMPERATURES WILL BE BACK DOWN AROUND 10
TO 15 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BEHIND THE COLD FRONT TAKES CONTROL LATER MONDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

BLENDED HPC WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST NUMBERS AS THEY LOOK
REPRESENTATIVE UNDER HIGH PRESSURE AND SLIGHTLY COOLER NORTHERLY
FLOW.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
06Z SATURDAY THRU 06Z SUNDAY...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE OVERNIGHT WILL CONTINUE VFR CEILINGS AOA
8000 FEET. THIS WILL LIMIT FOG TO SCATTERED MVFR RIVER AND VALLEY
FOG 08Z TO 12Z. AFTER 12Z...BECOMING SCATTERED CU WITH HEATING AS
UPPER DISTURBANCE LIFTS OUT.

THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT AREA AFTER 03Z FROM THE
NORTHWEST...AND MAY REACH JUST PAST OHIO RIVER AROUND 06Z. GREAT
UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE DEVELOPMENT AND TRACK OF THIS EXPECTED COMPLEX
ALONG WITH THE LATENESS OF THE POTENTIAL EVENT...LEADS A TAF
FORECAST TO BRING MVFR CONDITIONS WITH SHOWERS AND SCATTERED STORMS
TO PKB ONLY AND JUST SHY OF HTS BY 06Z. THE REMAINDER OF THE TERMINAL
SHOULD REMAIN PRECIP FREE THRU 06Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH TODAY...LOW TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING...COVERAGE AND DENSITY OF FOG OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY DEPENDING ON CLOUD COVER. THUNDERSTORM COMPLEX OVER AREA
SATURDAY NIGHT IS UNCERTAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 07/26/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN ROUNDS OF CONVECTION SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...ARJ
AVIATION...JMV










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