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000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190526
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1226 AM EST FRI DEC 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT INTO FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE STATES
SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
STILL SEEING SOME RADAR RETURNS WITH SOME SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA...WITH MAINLY AN MVFR CLOUD DECK IN
PLACE. SOME VFR WAS NOTED ACROSS THE SOUTH AND EXPECT MVFR DECK TO
REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT. HAVE CLOUDS SCATTERING OUT TO VFR
DURING THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY. WEAK SFC GRADIENTS IN PLACE ONLY A
LIGHT SOUTHWEST PUFF.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KMC/MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       FRI 12/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 182321
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
621 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
620 PM UPDATE...RADAR SHOWS SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY NORTHERN
HALF OF CWA. BASED ON OBS...SOME OF THESE ARE HITTING THE GROUND
WHILE OTHERS LIKELY ARE NOT. FEEL THIS IS HANDLED WELL IN CURRENT
FORECAST...SO ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP
INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER
NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO 10 THSD OVER TOP. SO THE
LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN HTS-CRW ON NORTH.
NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO
MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
RADAR SHOWING BANDS OF SNOW SHOWERS DRIFTING NE...BASED ON
OBSERVATIONS...SOME OF THESE ARE MAKING IT TO THE GROUND WHILE
OTHERS APPEAR TO NOT BE. NORTHERN HALF OF CWA HAS BEST CHANCE OF
SEEING A SNOW SHOWER...AND ALSO IS STUCK IN THE MVFR CLOUD DECK.
WHILE VFR MID DECK CURRENTLY IN PLACE ACROSS THE SOUTH. DO EXPECT
MVFR DECK TO REFORM ACROSS THE SOUTH TONIGHT...AND COULD EVEN GET
SOME FLURRIES DOWN TO HTS-CRW...BUT LEFT OUT OF TAF FOR NOW.
CLOUDS SCATTER OUT TO VFR LATER TOMORROW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF RESURGENCE OF MVFR CIGS ACROSS
SOUTH MAY VARY...MAY ALSO HAVE SOME FLURRIES OR LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
FARTHER SOUTH...AND EVEN A DROP INTO MVFR VIS IN SNOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB













000
FXUS61 KRLX 182052
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER LOW...WHICH WILL MOVE NORTHEAST OUT OF THE
SOUTHERN U.S TOWARDS THE OHIO VALLEY...AHEAD OF A LOW AND UPPER
TROUGH ACROSS THE UPPER MIDWEST. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY FLOW...PW
VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE
FALLING TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD
RESULT IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY
ADVERTISED. STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE
NECESSARY DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES
IN THE FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181940
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
240 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE EAST COAST
MONDAY...CREATING PRECIPITATION...MAINLY ACROSS EASTERN ZONES MONDAY
AND MONDAY NIGHT. DEPENDING ON SURFACE TEMPERATURES...COULD BE A
PERIOD OF SLEET OR FREEZING RAIN MONDAY MAINLY ACROSS MOUNTAIN ZONES
AND NORTHERN WV. THIS LOW WILL EXIT OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY...TO
BE FOLLOWED BY STRONGER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER
MIDWEST...AND ASSOCIATED DEEP UPPER TROUGH. WITH GOOD SOUTHERLY
FLOW...PW VALUES WILL RISE TO AROUND AN INCH WITH THE SYSTEM. IN
ADDITION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP AS THE SYSTEM MOVES
THROUGH THE REGION...PARTICULARLY WEDNESDAY AND WEDNESDAY
NIGHT...BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WHICH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA
TUESDAY NIGHT/EARLY WEDNESDAY. BASED ON THIS TIMING...COULD SEE FALLING
TEMPERATURES THROUGHOUT THE DAY CHRISTMAS EVE...WHICH WOULD RESULT
IN A SNOWIER/MORE MIXED PRECIP FORECAST THAN CURRENTLY ADVERTISED.
STILL LOOKING LIKE SOME SORT OF WINTER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY
DURING THIS TIME PERIOD...BUT WITH SO MANY UNCERTAINTIES IN THE
FORECAST...WILL LEAVE OUT OF THE HWO FOR NOW.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 181938
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
238 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL WAVE IN THE NORTHERN STREAM WILL CROSS THE AREA
SATURDAY. MODELS HAVE TRENDED FARTHER SOUTH AND EAST ON THE ASSOCIATED
SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PASS ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST STATES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

THE GFS AND ECMWF BRING SOME QPF NORTH OF THE SFC LOW TO POSSIBLE
AFFECT THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS AND EASTERN MOUNTAINS WITH A
WINTRY MIX PCPN SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES ALOFT COULD BE WARM ENOUGH
FOR RAIN OVER THE LOWLANDS. CUT BACK SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FURTHER
EAST LEAVING THE WESTERN SECTIONS MAINLY DRY.

CONTINUED WITH LIKELY POPS ALONG THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS ON EASTERN
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT. THE SYSTEM LOOSES ITS
INFLUENCE TO THE LOCAL AREA SUNDAY WHEN DRIER CONDITIONS SHOULD
PREVAIL.

WENT MAINLY WITH THE CONSENSUS MOS FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 181801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1255 PM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEAK DISTURBANCE PASSES THROUGH SE
STATES SATURDAY MAY CLIP THE SOUTH AND MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
STILL THINKING THE STRATUS UNDER THE TEMP INVERSION WILL TRY TO THIN
THIS AFTERNOON A BIT FURTHER NORTH...BUT INCREASING MID DECK AT 7 TO
10 THSD OVER TOP.  SO THE LACK OF DEC SUN SEEMS TO BE WINNING AGAIN
HTS-CRW ON NORTH. NEARING 18Z...THE LOW CLOUDS DID BREAK IN THE
LOGAN TO BECKLEY TO MARLINTON CORRIDOR WITH BRIGHTER CONDITIONS.

WEAK MID LEVEL IMPULSES PASS OVERNIGHT...BUT 850 MB TEMPS A BIT MORE
FAVORABLE FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THEIR WAKE.  WILL CONTINUE BE
RATHER LIBERAL ON THE FLURRIES OVERNIGHT...AND INCREASE
MEASURABLE POPS VCNTY EKN. WILL ALSO HOLD ONTO LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS
OR FLURRIES LONGER ON FRIDAY IN THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS.

BUT OVERALL...STILL A TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN. IN CONTRAST...
WE ISSUED A PNS ON THE 5 YEAR ANNIVERSARY OF THE TURNPIKE TRAPPER.

STILL FINE TUNING OUR MIN/MAX TEMPS FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY ALONG
WITH THE HOURLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD CEILINGS 15 HND TO 25 HND FT MAINLY HTS-CRW ON NORTH WITH
MID DECK LAYERS AT 7 TO 10 THSD FT AGL.  VCNTY BKW...LOWER CLOUDS
SCATTERED INTO TONIGHT...BUT MAY BECOME A CEILINGS AGAIN LATE
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES EXPECTED TO INCREASE ACROSS SOUTHEAST
OHIO BEFORE DARK...THEN SPREAD ALONG THE PKB-CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 00Z TO
06Z...THEN CREEPING FURTHER SOUTH TOWARD HTS-CRW-BKW 06Z TO 12Z
FRIDAY. VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO INTO 3 TO 5 MILES CKB-EKN CORRIDOR 04Z
TO 15Z FRIDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF THE CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
HTS-CRW-EKN CORRIDOR THIS AFTERNOON COULD VARY...AND LIKEWISE THE
FORMATION AND SOUTHWARD PUSH OF THESE CEILINGS AGAIN OVERNIGHT
TONIGHT INTO FRIDAY MORNING.

COVERAGE OF FLURRIES AND LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OVERNIGHT INTO FRIDAY
MORNING COULD VARY.  VSBY MAY BRIEFLY GO LOWER THAN FORECAST IN THE
CKB-EKN CORRIDOR.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT WINTRY MIX OVER MOUNTAIN COUNTIES SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 181412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
904 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM MIDWEST...BUT WEAK DISTURBANCES
ALOFT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE
WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOW STRATUS CLOUDS UNDER INVERSION CONTINUE FROM BKW ON N-W AT 14Z.
STILL THINKING THAT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL THIN...YIELDING THE MID
CLOUDS ABOVE.  SO STILL HOPING FOR SOME BREAKS OF SUN OR AT LEAST A
BIT BRIGHTER SKY IN THE SOUTH. IR IMAGERY INDICATED THE MID CLOUDS
WARMED AS THEY CROSSED SRN WV THIS MORNING.  NEXT IMPULSE SHOULD
INCREASE MID CLOUDS OVER THE LOW DECK ACROSS OHIO THIS AFTERNOON AND
INTO NRN WV TONIGHT.  WILL BE A BIT MORE LIBERAL WITH THE LIGHT SNOW
SHOWERS OR FLURRIES INTO FRIDAY MORNING.  BUT OVERALL STILL A
TRANQUIL MID DECEMBER PATTERN.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 181046
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
546 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
ADDED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS FOR A DEFORMATION ZONE TRAVERSING
THE NORTHERN ZONES AFTER 21Z THIS EVENING BASED ON THE HRRR.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR AFTER 16Z. HAVE
MID AND UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE BRINGING CEILINGS ABOVE 7KFT AFTER
THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE DISSIPATES FROM THE SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE
WEST.

THERE IS A POTENTIAL FOR ANOTHER INVERSION TRAPPING MOISTURE AGAIN
ACROSS THE NORTHERN TERMINALS LATER TONIGHT AFTER 06Z FRIDAY. THE
START TIME FOR THIS IN THE TAFS HAS BEEN PUSHED BACK A FEW HOURS
FROM THE PREVIOUS ISSUANCE. THE GUIDANCE IS NOT CLEAR ON THIS
FORMATION AND LARGELY USED THE NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS IN
IDENTIFICATION OF THIS MOIST LAYER.

VISIBILITIES VFR THROUGH THE PERIOD. HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THIS
ASPECT OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE
MIXING HOURS TODAY COULD VARY. MVFR CEILINGS TONIGHT MAY NOT
MATERIALIZE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 180857
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
357 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS DESPITE CLOUD COVER. LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR
THE WEEKEND CLIPS THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SYSTEM TO THE WEST WILL CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY SHEAR OUT PRIOR TO
ENTERING THE OHIO VALLEY...HOWEVER CLOUD COVER WILL PLAY A ROLE IN
THE FORECAST TODAY. AS WE FINALLY MIX OUT THE BOUNDARY LAYER...MID
AND HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE PUSHES IN FROM THE WEST. ALLOWED FOR A FEW
BREAKS IN THE CLOUD COVER THROUGH THE DAY BY NOT PEGGING THE GRIDS
AT 100 PERCENT COVERAGE...BUT IT BKN-OVC.

NAM BRINGS IN NORTHWEST FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS FROM THE SOUTHERN
GREAT LAKES IN OVER THE NORTHERN TIER OF COUNTIES LATE TONIGHT.
THERMAL TROUGH IS NOT ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE...BUT OUTPUT FROM THE SREF
PROBABILITIES FOR MEASURING PRECIPITATION AND THE AFOREMENTIONED NAM
WARRANTS LOW END POPS COMING BACK INTO THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS.

WILL NOT SEE MUCH OF REBOUND IN THE TEMPERATURES FROM THE MORNING
LOW TODAY. USED A BLEND OF THE CONSENSUS MOS AND MET MOS NUMBERS
TODAY WHICH WERE GENERALLY THE COLDER SOLUTIONS. DROPPING BELOW
FREEZING CWA WIDE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WEAK SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WITH AN OPEN WAVE
TRACKING ACROSS TN-KY-NC THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. LATEST 00Z
MODELS HAVE CONTINUED TO TREND A LITTLE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH WITH
TRACK OF MAIN DYNAMICS OF THE WAVE...WITH NAM12 BACKING OFF THE
MOST.

FOR POPS...FOLLOWED LATEST SREF TRENDS WITH AN ADJUSTMENT TOWARD THE
GFS AND ECMWF. MODELS HAVE TRENDED BEST FORCING MECHANISMS AND
MOISTURE FURTHER TO THE SOUTH...KEPT BEST CHANCES FOR PRECIP FURTHER
SOUTH OF KCRW...AND OVER THE EASTERN MOUNTAINS. BACKED OFF A LITTLE
FOR THE ONSET OF PRECIP FRI NIGHT AND SAT. OVERALL THIS LEADS TO
CUTTING POPS ACROSS CENTRAL WV...AND KEEPING BEST CHANCES ALONG THE
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE CWA.

WENT WITH BC BLEND FOR TEMPS WITH A NOD TOWARD INHERITED VALUES
RESULTING IN SLIGHT CHANGES IN MAX MIN TEMPS.  PRECIP TYPE WILL BE A
MIXED BAG AT NIGHT BASED ON SOUNDING PROFILES...WITH MAINLY RAIN
DURING THE DAYTIME HOURS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KMC/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KMC
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 180544
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1244 AM EST THU DEC 18 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MIXING AFTER DAWN TODAY FINALLY BRINGS TERMINALS OUT OF THE MVFR
CEILINGS...AND SHOULD HAVE THE BULK OF THE DAY VFR. MID AND UPPER
CLOUDS FROM A SHEARING SYSTEM TO THE WEST KEEPS THE SKY BKN-OVC
ABOVE 7KFT...AND HAVE MVFR CEILINGS RETURNING AGAIN ACROSS THE
NORTHERN TERMINALS. THIS IS THANKS TO A RE EMERGENCE OF LOW LEVEL
FLOW OFF THE GREAT LAKES UNDERNEATH THE INVERSION SETTING UP ONCE
AGAIN.

LARGELY RELIED ON THE MET GUIDANCE AGAIN FOR THIS TAF ISSUANCE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CLEARING TONIGHT COULD OCCUR ACROSS THE
SOUTH. TIMING OF CEILINGS LIFTING TO VFR IN THE MIXING HOURS
TODAY COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 180221
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
921 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
920 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       THU 12/18/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 172320
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
620 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ERODING ACROSS THE SOUTH AS HIGH PRESSURE
NOSES IN. SOME QUESTION ON JUST HOW FAR NORTH THIS DRIER AIR WILL
MAKE IT...SO SOME UNCERTAINTY ON WHEN WE MAY BREAK OUT OF MVFR AT
SITES SUCH AS HTS AND CRW. MODELS SHOW LOW LEVEL MOISTURE HANGING
TOUGH AT HTS AND CRW...BUT THEY SEEM TO BE TOO PESSIMISTIC BASED
ON WHATS HAPPENING IN EASTERN KY. NORTHWEST FLOW REMAINS...SO MAY
ALSO FILL BACK IN AT BKW OVERNIGHT. OTHERWISE EXPECT MVFR TO
REMAIN THROUGH THE NIGHT ACROSS THE NORTH...AND MUCH OF TOMORROW
AT CKB AND EKN. WINDS WILL GENERALLY REMAIN FAIRLY LIGHT OUT OF
THE W AND NW THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB/MZ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 172143
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
443 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A SFC LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST...ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN
STATES ON SATURDAY. AT THE UPPER LEVELS...MODELS BRING
CONSIDERABLE FORCING IN FORM OF A OPEN WAVE AT H500 AND ASSOCIATED
VORTICITY MAXIMA PASSING JUST SOUTH OF THE AREA ACROSS TN...KY AND
VA. THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM COULD AFFECT WV SATURDAY AND
SATURDAY NIGHT WITH A WINTRY MIX PRECIPITATION. FREEZING
RAIN...SLEET...RAIN AND/OR SNOW COULD BE POSSIBLE.

THE ECMWF HAS TRENDED FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST WITH THIS
SYSTEM...WHILE THE GFS...CMC...AND ESPECIALLY THE NAM BRING
PERIODS OF PCPN IN THEIR QPF FIELDS OVER THE WV AND VA. DECIDED TO
KEEP LIKELY TO CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS SYSTEM PER PERSISTENCE
AMONG THE MODEL CONSENSUS. CONFIDENCE AT THIS TIME IS LOW...AND
CHANGES TO THE FORECAST MIGHT BE POSSIBLE DURING THE UPCOMING
DAYS.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /22Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EST 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171831
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
131 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
GRADUAL DRYING TREND SUNDAY AS LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM AND UPPER
SHORTWAVE TROUGH PUSHES OFF TO THE EAST. WARMER WEATHER WILL THEN
TAKE HOLD SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AS HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF NEXT
APPROACHING SYSTEM. ALTHOUGH MAINLY DRY MONDAY...COULD SEE SOME
LIGHT PRECIPITATION ACROSS PARTS OF THE MOUNTAINS AS ANOTHER LOW
MOVES NORTHEAST ALONG THE COAST. ECMWF AND GFS TAKE COMPLETELY
DIFFERENT PATHS WITH THIS LOW...BUT AT THIS POINT...LOOKS LIKE ANY
MAJOR EFFECTS WITH THIS LOW WILL REMAIN OUTSIDE OF THE AREA.

FOCUS THEN SHIFTS TO A STRONG SYSTEM ACROSS THE UPPER MID
WEST...THAT WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION...AND A COLD FRONT BACK INTO
THE AREA LONG ABOUT TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT...AND LAST INTO AT LEAST
THURSDAY...WHEN THE LOW WILL FINALLY PULL OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
PRECIPITATION SHOULD START OUT AS MOSTLY RAIN...EXCEPT ACROSS HIGHER
TERRAIN...ON TUESDAY...BEFORE TRANSITIONING TO MOSTLY SNOW TUESDAY
NIGHT...THEN AGAIN WEDNESDAY NIGHT. ALONG WITH THE WINTRY
PRECIPITATION...GUSTY WINDS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY.
WINTER WEATHER HEADLINES MAY BE NECESSARY DURING THIS PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB











000
FXUS61 KRLX 171828
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THINS INTO THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AS TEMPERATURES ALOFT GET COLDER...A BIT MORE FAVORABLE FOR
LINGERING LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS AND FLURRIES OVER THE MOUNTAINS THE
REST OF THE AFTERNOON.

THERE ARE "NEVER ANY ALWAYS" IN THIS BUSINESS.  DESPITE A PATTERN
SIMILAR TO LAST WEEKEND...WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TRAPPED UNDER THE
INVERSION...CONCERNED CLOUDS MAY BREAK UP SOONER...ESPECIALLY IN
SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING LOW CLOUDS ON
SATELLITE IMAGE S OF CRW THIS WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.  THIS LEADS TO
MANY DIFFICULTIES FOR TONIGHT. CLOUDS AND THUS TEMPERATURES ARE A
MAJOR ISSUE...BUT FOR THE GENERAL PUBLIC IT IS NOT A MEMORABLE
SUBJECT. WILL LIKELY GO WITH MORE PARTIAL CLEARING IN SOUTHERN
COUNTIES AND A BIT COLDER TONIGHT IN OUR AFTERNOON UPDATE. OF
COURSE...EAST OF MOUNTAIN CRESTS...THE USUAL CLEARING IN POCAHONTAS
COUNTY TOO.

WILL KEEP IT DRY THURSDAY. THOUGH SOME MID LEVEL MOISTURE/CLOUDS
INCREASING...COULD BE DETECTED BY RADAR.  MID LEVEL TROF AXIS
APPROACHES OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES BY 00Z FRIDAY.

AS A SIDE NOTE...MADE A FACEBOOK POST TODAY ABOUT THE 25TH
ANNIVERSARY OF THE PRE CHRISTMAS COLD WAVE OF DECEMBER 1989.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
MODELS DO NOT SEEM TO BE HANDLING THE THINNING OF THE LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE SE-S OF CRW THIS AFTERNOON.  THIS MAKES CEILING FORECAST
DIFFICULT OVERNIGHT WITH THE WEAKENING NORTHWEST FLOW...BUT STILL
IN THE LOW LEVEL THERMAL TROF THROUGH 15Z THURSDAY. IT MAY TURN OUT
TO BE MORE OPTIMISTIC THAN FORECAST FOR PLACES LIKE CRW AND BKW.
COULD NOT EVEN RULE OUT SOME MVFR IN FOG IN THE SOUTHERN
VALLEYS...IF THOSE THINNING LOW CLOUDS BECOME SCATTERED OVERNIGHT.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUING TO DRY UP ON THURSDAY...MID
DECK CLOUDS AT 8 TO 10 THSD FT PSBL.  MAY BE SOME RADAR RETURNS
FROM THE MID DECK BY 18Z BUT DO NOT THINK ANY PCPN REACHES THE
GROUND.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MORE CLEARING COULD OCCUR THAN EXPECTED TONIGHT
IN SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 18Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/ARJ/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB












000
FXUS61 KRLX 171309
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
809 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
IN A MID MORNING UPDATE...WENT HIGHER POPS THROUGH 15/16Z IN OUR
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES BTWN EKN AND BKW. COULD SEE AN INCH OR 2 OF SNOW
ACCUM BUT LIMITED COVERAGE...PROBABLY ABOVE 3500 FEET.

THE TEMPERATURE TRACE IN THE LOWLANDS COULD STILL FALL THROUGH
ABOUT 15/16Z THEN OSCILLATE. ALSO ADDED A FEW FLAKES POSSIBLE IN
THE WESTERN LOWLANDS THIS MORNING. ALL IN ALL..RELATIVELY MINOR
FOR MID DECEMBER.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE
LAST WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
ANOTHER MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE
BOARD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 171036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
536 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
LOWERED THE TEMPERATURES TODAY A COUPLE DEGREES ACROSS THE BOARD.
NO CHANGES OTHERWISE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE
LAST WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER
ANOTHER MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE
BIGGEST CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE
BOARD THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES
FOR MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
TEETERING ON THE MVFR/IFR CEILING THRESHOLD FOR A FEW HOURS THIS
MORNING WHICH WILL TAKE AWAY FROM THE CONFIDENCE IN THIS ISSUANCE
JUST A TOUCH. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SOCKED INTO PLACE FOR THE TAF
PERIOD UNDER A STRONG DEVELOPING INVERSION ABOVE THE BOUNDARY
LAYER. AS A RESULT...RESTRICTIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD EXPECTED WITH
LOW CEILINGS IN PLACE. WINDS WILL KEEP ANY VISIBILITY ISSUES FROM
OCCURRING THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. SOME MIXING TODAY COULD BUMP THE
CEILINGS UP OVER 2KFT FOR A PERIOD THIS AFTERNOON ALONG THE OHIO
RIVER.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. MAY SEE
BRIEF VFR AT PKB AND HTS THIS AFTERNOON.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 170851
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
351 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY.
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
LOOKS LIKE WE WILL BE REVERTING TO A SIMILAR SET UP FROM LATE LAST
WEEK WITH TRAPPED MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER UNDER ANOTHER
MASSIVE INVERSION WITH AROUND 60-90MB DEPTH. THIS IS THE BIGGEST
CHANGE TO THE FORECAST WITH GOING 100 SKY COVER ACROSS THE BOARD
THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY. FOLLOWING THE HRRR BRINGS THE CHANCES FOR
MEASURABLE PRECIPITATION TO AN END BY 00Z TONIGHT. CARRY
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE UNTIL 18Z TODAY AND WILL NEED TO MONITOR
THIS TO SEE IF THIS NEEDS TO GO LONGER IN THE FORECAST.

COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUING INTO THE OVERNIGHT BRINGS TEMPERATURES
BACK DOWN BELOW FREEZING AREA WIDE. WIND STAYING UP SHOULD KEEP ANY
POTENTIAL FOR FREEZING FOG AT BAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
BEFORE THE ADVERTISED STORM SYSTEM FOR THIS WEEKEND...OF WHICH
LITTLE HAS CHANGED IN THAT FORECAST...THE PATTERN ALOFT WILL BE
ZONAL WITH A SERIES OF WEAK UPPER DISTURBANCES MOVING ACROSS THE
AREA. THESE WILL KEEP CONSIDERABLE CLOUDINESS THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY...BUT NO PRECIP ADDED AS MOISTURE IS LIMITED AND THE
DISTURBANCES WILL BE WEAKENING AS THEY MOVE ACROSS. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /09Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                         WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EST 1HRLY       03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 170529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1229 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOPER ALONG WITH SAT IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE LOOKING LOW TO
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL OH AND INTO WV EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH IT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WV PANHANDLE BY
02Z. MOST OF THE STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE OH RIVER.

CAN EFFECTIVELY SAY THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE CWA BUT
CAA CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSETTLED IN THIS REGIME. WEAK LIFT AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON AND
OFF TONIGHT...MAINLY IN WARMER LOWER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.

ISSUED SPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA OVER THE HIGHEST
RIDGE TOPS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIPPED BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DO NOT PLAN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE. STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT TO
PASS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26










000
FXUS61 KRLX 170529
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1229 AM EST WED DEC 17 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
WV LOOPER ALONG WITH SAT IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE LOOKING LOW TO
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL OH AND INTO WV EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH IT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WV PANHANDLE BY
02Z. MOST OF THE STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE OH RIVER.

CAN EFFECTIVELY SAY THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE CWA BUT
CAA CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSETTLED IN THIS REGIME. WEAK LIFT AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON AND
OFF TONIGHT...MAINLY IN WARMER LOWER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.

ISSUED SPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA OVER THE HIGHEST
RIDGE TOPS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIPPED BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DO NOT PLAN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE. STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT TO
PASS THROUGH NORTH CENTRAL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
LOOKING AT PERSISTENT MVFR CEILINGS/IFR IN BKW THROUGH THE BULK OF
THE PERIOD WITH BRIEF IFR INTO THE DAWN HOURS OVER THE LOWLANDS.
THIS IS THANKS TO ANOTHER DIRTY HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WHICH WILL
TRAP MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER LIKE WAS SEEN A FEW DAYS AGO
AND SHOULD YIELD OVERCAST SKIES THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY. USED THE MET
MOS GUIDANCE AND NAM FORECAST SOUNDINGS FOR THIS FORECAST...NOTING
THAT THE LAST 9 HOURS OF THE LAMP GUIDANCE BRINGS CEILINGS UP.
WILL NOT GO WITH THIS FOR THIS ISSUANCE.

NO VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS EXPECTED WITH 8-12KT WINDS IN PLACE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR MAY NOT DEVELOP AROUND DAWN. WILL NEED TO
WATCH GUIDANCE FOR CHANGES SUPPORTING VFR AFTER 00Z THURSDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    M    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 170242
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOPER ALONG WITH SAT IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE LOOKING LOW TO
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL OH AND INTO WV EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH IT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WV PANHANDLE BY
02Z. MOST OF THE STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE OH RIVER.

CAN EFFECTIVELY SAY THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE CWA BUT
CAA CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSETTLED IN THIS REGIME. WEAK LIFT AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON AND
OFF TONIGHT...MAINLY IN WARMER LOWER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.

ISSUED SPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA OVER THE HIGHEST
RIDGETOPS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIPPED BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DO NOT PLAN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE. STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT TO
PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY...HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR AS CAA CONTINUES WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE CONTINUING. CIG VALUES MAY DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST AND
THAT WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.

THE OTHER REASON FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY
CEILINGS IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

CIGS DROP TO 1 TO 2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1 THSD FT
ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES
ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY
LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB/KMC










000
FXUS61 KRLX 170242
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
942 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
WV LOOPER ALONG WITH SAT IR IMAGERY SHOWED A NICE LOOKING LOW TO
MID LEVEL VORT MAX WORKING OUT OF CENTRAL OH AND INTO WV EARLIER
THIS EVENING...WITH IT EVENTUALLY REACHING THE WV PANHANDLE BY
02Z. MOST OF THE STRONGER SHOWER ACTIVITY ASSOCIATED WITH THIS
FEATURE DISSIPATED BEFORE REACHING THE OH RIVER.

CAN EFFECTIVELY SAY THAT THE COLD FRONT IS NOW THROUGH THE CWA BUT
CAA CLOUDS AND PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAIN IN ITS WAKE.
THE ATMOSPHERE IS STILL UNSETTLED IN THIS REGIME. WEAK LIFT AND
SLIGHT INSTABILITY WILL ALLOW FOR PRECIPITATION TO FORM ON AND
OFF TONIGHT...MAINLY IN WARMER LOWER LEVELS IN THE FORM OF
DRIZZLE.

ISSUED SPS TO COVER THE POSSIBILITY OF FZRA OVER THE HIGHEST
RIDGETOPS OF OUR MOUNTAIN COUNTIES AS THESE AREAS ARE FORECAST TO
DIPPED BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. OTHERWISE...DO NOT PLAN
SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE FORECAST.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE. STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT TO
PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY...HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR AS CAA CONTINUES WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE CONTINUING. CIG VALUES MAY DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST AND
THAT WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.

THE OTHER REASON FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY
CEILINGS IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

CIGS DROP TO 1 TO 2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1 THSD FT
ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES
ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY
LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                       WED 12/17/14
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EST 1HRLY       21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KMC/KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB/KMC









000
FXUS61 KRLX 162349
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
649 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE.  STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT
TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY...HAVE MEDIUM CONFIDENCE IN FORECAST THIS PERIOD. MVFR
CIGS THIS EVENING WILL LOWER TO IFR AS CAA CONTINUES WITH AREAS OF
DRIZZLE CONTINUING. CIG VALUES MAY DROP LOWER THAN FORECAST AND
THAT WHERE THE GREATEST UNCERTAINTY LIES.

THE OTHER REASON FOR MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY
CEILINGS IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

CIGS DROP TO 1 TO 2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH VALUES AROUND 1 THSD FT
ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES. WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT
RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES
ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED
RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS TONIGHT. ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY
LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHIO VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE
DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    H    M    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB/KMC






000
FXUS61 KRLX 162101
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE.  STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT
TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.  WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...FIGURING THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  DID MENTION SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE EKN AND
BKW TAF SITES.

THE OTHER REASON ON MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.  CEILINGS BECOMING 1 TO
2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH AOB 1 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z
TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHO
VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB














000
FXUS61 KRLX 162101
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH THURSDAY
NIGHT.  HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE.  STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT
TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
MODELS SHOWING SOME LOW LEVEL MOISTURE REMAINING WEDNESDAY
NIGHT INTO THURSDAY MORNING WITH COLD ADVECTION AND UPSLOPE
NORTHWEST FLOW. MOISTURE IS SHALLOW...BUT BELIEVE THAT SOME FLURRIES
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL MOUNTAINS.

A WEAK DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS ON THURSDAY. WITH DRY AIR IN THE LOW
LEVELS...NOT SURE THAT THE PRECIPITATION WILL MAKE IT TO THE GROUND.
WILL LEAVE DRY FOR NOW...BUT MAY NEED TO ADD SOME SMALL CHANCES IF
THE MODELS CONTINUE TO TREND WETTER WITH THIS DISTURBANCE.

SOME COLD AIR ADVECTION SETS BACK IN BEHIND THE DISTURBANCE THURSDAY
NIGHT. WITH LIGHT UPSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING AND SOME LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE...WILL ADD SOME FLURRIES IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL WEST
VIRGINIA MOUNTAINS.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR FRIDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
ACTIVE WEATHER IN THE LONG TERM PERIOD. PERIOD STARTS OUT WITH A
SPLIT UPPER FLOW PATTERN ACROSS THE U.S...WITH A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
IN THE SOUTHERN STREAM MOVING EAST ACROSS THE SOUTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY...WITH A SHORTWAVE TROUGH IN THE
NORTHERN STREAM PUSHING EAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BRINGING A
REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR INTO THE REGION. MODELS ARE STARTING TO
COME INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK OF THE LOW...BUT ECMWF IS
DEEPER...AND MORE PROGRESSIVE WITH NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE...THUS
RESULTING IN A COLDER SOLUTION. DEPENDING ON WHICH SOLUN PANS
OUT...COULD SEE MORE OF A WINTRY MIX...AS WITH THE GFS SOLUN...OR A
MAINLY SNOW...WITH POSSIBLY BRIEF RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS
LOWLANDS...WITH THE ECMWF SOLUN. HAVE TRENDED THE FORECAST TOWARDS
HPC...WHICH TENDS TO FAVOR WARMER SOLUN. THUS...EXPECTING A WINTRY
MIX TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT/SATURDAY...BEFORE
TRANSITIONING TO MAINLY RAIN ACROSS THE LOWLANDS SATURDAY...THEN
BACK TO SNOW OR A MIX SATURDAY NIGHT. ITS POSSIBLE WINTER WEATHER
HEADLINES MAY BE NEEDED DURING THIS PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN BEHIND THE SYSTEM FOR EARLY NEXT
WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN THE PRECIPITATION...BEFORE ANOTHER
SYSTEM MOVES IN TOWARDS MID WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /21Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.  WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...FIGURING THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  DID MENTION SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE EKN AND
BKW TAF SITES.

THE OTHER REASON ON MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.  CEILINGS BECOMING 1 TO
2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH AOB 1 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z
TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETERIORATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHO
VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY HAVE IFR IN CEILINGS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN THURSDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...KTB













000
FXUS61 KRLX 161834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE.  STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT
TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.  WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...FIGURING THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  DID MENTION SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE EKN AND
BKW TAF SITES.

THE OTHER REASON ON MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.  CEILINGS BECOMING 1 TO
2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH AOB 1 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z
TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETEORIATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHO
VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY IFR IN CEILINGS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 161834
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
125 PM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
IN WAKE OF COLD FRONT...ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH
WEDNESDAY.  HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE
APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
AT 18Z FRONT APPROACHING CKB TO BKW LINE.  STRONG MID LEVEL
DISTURBANCE LOCATED NEAR DAY AT 18Z...HEADING EAST..TIMING IT
TO PASS THROUGH NORTH CNTRL WV ABOUT 00Z WEDNESDAY.

INTERESTING THAT HERE IN MID DECEMBER...WE CAN NOT GET A GOOD
TEMPERATURE DROP...EVEN IN THE  WAKE OF A COLD FRONT. WE KEPT
TEMPERATURE ABOVE FREEZING OVERNIGHT TONIGHT...EXCEPT IN ELEVATIONS
ABOVE 3000 FEET.

WITH THE LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...HARD TO FIGURE HOW LOW THE
CLOUDS GO FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS...AND THUS...HOW HARD TO FIGURE
AMOUNT OF DRIZZLE LATE OVERNIGHT...BUT MORE LIKELY FURTHER NORTH.
ALONG WITH A MIXTURE OF LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGH
ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...WILL INCLUDE THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE...SINCE SATURATED MOISTURE DEPTH MOSTLY AOB 5
THSD FT MSL.  AREA IS VERY LIMITED FOR THAT FREEZING DRIZZLE.

COLDEST 850 MB AIR 12Z TO 15Z ON WEDNESDAY.  WILL HOLD ONTO OVERCAST
INTO AFTERNOON...WITH SOME CLEARING IN THE WESTERN COUNTIES. THE
TEMP TRACE ON WEDNESDAY MAY STILL GO DOWN A BIT 12Z TO 15Z THEN
TRY TO CREEP UP A FEW DEGREES DURING THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
CONFIDENCE AT MEDIUM...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY AND HOW LOW THE CEILINGS
DROP OVERNIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA AND SOUTHWEST
VIRGINIA.  WITH LOW LEVEL FLOW MOSTLY WESTERLY...FIGURING THE BEST
PROBABILITY OF LINGERING DRIZZLE AND LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IS ACROSS
EASTERN OHIO AND NORTHERN WEST VIRGINIA.  DID MENTION SOME FREEZING
DRIZZLE 04Z TO 14Z WEDNESDAY...BUT FOR ELEVATIONS ABOVE THE EKN AND
BKW TAF SITES.

THE OTHER REASON ON MEDIUM CONFIDENCE...UNSURE HOW QUICKLY CEILINGS
IMPROVE DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ON WEDNESDAY.

ALL IN ALL...WIDESPREAD CEILINGS AROUND 2 THSD FT THIS AFTERNOON
WITH VSBY 3 TO 5 MILES IN ANY RAIN SHOWERS.  CEILINGS BECOMING 1 TO
2 THSD FT TONIGHT WITH AOB 1 THSD FT ACROSS MOUNTAIN COUNTIES.
WIDESPREAD VSBY NEAR 5 MILES IN LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR PATCHY DRIZZLE
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT. VSBY AOB 3 MILES ACROSS HIGH MOUNTAIN TERRAIN 04Z
TO 14Z WEDNESDAY IN LIGHT MIXED RAIN/SNOW SHOWERS OR
DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS MAY TAKE LONGER TO DETEORIATE IN
SOUTHERN WV MOUNTAINS INCLUDING BKW LATE TODAY AND THIS EVENING.
ALSO...THINNING CEILINGS MAY LIFT...OR BREAK UP...SOONER IN THE OHO
VALLEY COUNTIES DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
HIGHER MOUNTAIN RIDGES MAY IFR IN CEILINGS LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND
EARLY THURSDAY AND AGAIN LATE THURSDAY NIGHT AND EARLY FRIDAY.

IFR POSSIBLE IN WINTRY MIX SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...KTB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 161540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXITING MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
ALMOST SPRINGLIKE...WITH DEW POINTS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO 50 DEGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL THINKING THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE THE ARRIVE OF THE COLD FRONT...ELKINS WAS
STILL 38 DEGS AT 15Z. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.  THOUGH SAW SOME AROUND A THIRD IN UPSHUR COUNTY.

AT 15Z COLD FRONT BETWEEN ASHLAND AND HUNTINGTON.  SOME GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH FRONT. HAVE THAT SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND A UNUSUALLY SLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN FOR DECEMBER. SO MOST TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  DID
ADD SOME DRIZZLE TOO OVERNIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UP
HIGH...BUT DO NOT SEE IT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINE...SINCE SO LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE DAY.  WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT HOURLY SKY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAY BE MORE OF A SOLID OVERCAST LONGER...AND WHETHER TO
HOLD ONTO SOME FLURRIES LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26












000
FXUS61 KRLX 161540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXITING MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
ALMOST SPRINGLIKE...WITH DEW POINTS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO 50 DEGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL THINKING THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE THE ARRIVE OF THE COLD FRONT...ELKINS WAS
STILL 38 DEGS AT 15Z. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.  THOUGH SAW SOME AROUND A THIRD IN UPSHUR COUNTY.

AT 15Z COLD FRONT BETWEEN ASHLAND AND HUNTINGTON.  SOME GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH FRONT. HAVE THAT SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND A UNUSUALLY SLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN FOR DECEMBER. SO MOST TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  DID
ADD SOME DRIZZLE TOO OVERNIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UP
HIGH...BUT DO NOT SEE IT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINE...SINCE SO LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE DAY.  WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT HOURLY SKY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAY BE MORE OF A SOLID OVERCAST LONGER...AND WHETHER TO
HOLD ONTO SOME FLURRIES LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 161540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXITING MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
ALMOST SPRINGLIKE...WITH DEW POINTS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO 50 DEGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL THINKING THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE THE ARRIVE OF THE COLD FRONT...ELKINS WAS
STILL 38 DEGS AT 15Z. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.  THOUGH SAW SOME AROUND A THIRD IN UPSHUR COUNTY.

AT 15Z COLD FRONT BETWEEN ASHLAND AND HUNTINGTON.  SOME GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH FRONT. HAVE THAT SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND A UNUSUALLY SLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN FOR DECEMBER. SO MOST TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  DID
ADD SOME DRIZZLE TOO OVERNIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UP
HIGH...BUT DO NOT SEE IT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINE...SINCE SO LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE DAY.  WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT HOURLY SKY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAY BE MORE OF A SOLID OVERCAST LONGER...AND WHETHER TO
HOLD ONTO SOME FLURRIES LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26











000
FXUS61 KRLX 161540
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1035 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. LOW LEVEL MOISTURE THROUGH WEDNESDAY.  HIGH
PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE
WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
INITIAL PREFRONTAL SHOWERS EXITING MOUNTAINS LATE THIS MORNING.
ALMOST SPRINGLIKE...WITH DEW POINTS EVEN GETTING CLOSE TO 50 DEGS
AHEAD OF THE FRONT. STILL THINKING THE INVERSION BREAKS IN THE
MOUNTAIN VALLEYS BEFORE THE ARRIVE OF THE COLD FRONT...ELKINS WAS
STILL 38 DEGS AT 15Z. RAIN AMOUNTS WERE MOSTLY UNDER A QUARTER OF AN
INCH.  THOUGH SAW SOME AROUND A THIRD IN UPSHUR COUNTY.

AT 15Z COLD FRONT BETWEEN ASHLAND AND HUNTINGTON.  SOME GUSTS 20 TO
25 KNOTS WITH FRONT. HAVE THAT SHOWER BAND MOVING ACROSS CWA DURING
THE EARLY AFTERNOON. LOWER CLOUDS AND A UNUSUALLY SLOW COLD AIR
ADVECTION PATTERN FOR DECEMBER. SO MOST TEMPERATURES STAY ABOVE
FREEZING OVERNIGHT EXCEPT AT THE HIGHEST MOUNTAIN LOCATIONS.  DID
ADD SOME DRIZZLE TOO OVERNIGHT...WITH MAYBE SOME FREEZING DRIZZLE UP
HIGH...BUT DO NOT SEE IT WORTHY OF ANY HEADLINE...SINCE SO LIMITED
IN COVERAGE.

TEMPERATURES ON WEDNESDAY WILL PROBABLY HOLD NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE DAY.  WILL TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AT HOURLY SKY FORECAST FOR
WEDNESDAY...MAY BE MORE OF A SOLID OVERCAST LONGER...AND WHETHER TO
HOLD ONTO SOME FLURRIES LONGER IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EST 1HRLY       09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26












000
FXUS61 KRLX 161057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
REWORKED THE AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE DEFINITIVE SECOND BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS WITH FROPA AS
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONLY MAKING FINESSE TYPE CHANGES TO THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OVERALL
COVERAGE ON THE SLOW INCREASE. COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN IN/KY/TN/AL
AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECTING PASSAGE AFTER DAWN AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO THE 20KT RANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET INTO THE AUTO CONVECT
RANGE HOWEVER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...SO WILL TAKE
POPS OUT OF THE LOWLANDS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CARRYING DRIZZLE OVER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THE
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/LATE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER IN
THE MOUNTAINS...POPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE PRETTY UNLIKELY.

ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
ONLY HAVE THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26









000
FXUS61 KRLX 161057
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EST TUE DEC 16 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
UPDATE...
REWORKED THE AFTERNOON POPS FOR THE DEFINITIVE SECOND BAND OF
SHOWERS WITH THE COLD FRONT. ALSO BUMPED UP WINDS WITH FROPA AS
WELL.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ONLY MAKING FINESSE TYPE CHANGES TO THE POPS OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS
WITH BANDS OF SHOWERS ARRIVING FROM THE SOUTHWEST AND OVERALL
COVERAGE ON THE SLOW INCREASE. COLD FRONT STILL BACK IN IN/KY/TN/AL
AT THIS HOUR AND EXPECTING PASSAGE AFTER DAWN AND THROUGH THE
MOUNTAINS BY 18Z TODAY. BEHIND THE FRONT...WINDS INCREASE OUT OF THE
WEST SOUTHWEST GUSTING TO THE 20KT RANGE. WRAP AROUND MOISTURE KEEPS
LOW LEVEL CLOUD COVER IN PLACE WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS INTO
THE OVERNIGHT. 850MB TEMPERATURES DO NOT GET INTO THE AUTO CONVECT
RANGE HOWEVER SINCE THE SYSTEM IS PACIFIC IN NATURE...SO WILL TAKE
POPS OUT OF THE LOWLANDS BY 12Z WEDNESDAY. PREVIOUS FORECAST WAS
CARRYING DRIZZLE OVER CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION...BUT THINK THE
MOISTURE DEPTH WILL BE SUFFICIENT ENOUGH TO GET SHOWERS/LATE SNOW
SHOWERS IN THE MOUNTAINS. BY THE TIME PRECIPITATION CHANGES OVER IN
THE MOUNTAINS...POPS SHOULD BE LOW ENOUGH THAT SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
WILL BE PRETTY UNLIKELY.

ADDED A DEGREE OR TWO TO THE MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY OVER THE WEST
VIRGINIA LOWLANDS WITH FEW CHANGES TO THE MIN TEMPERATURES TONIGHT.
ONLY HAVE THE MOUNTAINS DROPPING BELOW FREEZING FOR THIS FORECAST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
COMPLICATED SPLIT FLOW PATTERN ALOFT CONTINUES...WITH AN ACTIVE
SOUTHERN STREAM TO THE SOUTH OF A BLOCKING PATTERN ACROSS CANADA.

LINGERING MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS END BY WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AS ONE
SYSTEM EXITS AND CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN. THIS HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MOSTLY DRY WEATHER AND NEAR SEASONABLE
TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ALTHOUGH CLOUDS MAY INCREASE
THURSDAY FROM THE NEXT SOUTHERN STREAM SYSTEM...THE MODELS CONTINUE
TO KEEP THIS SYSTEM RATHER FLAT AND ITS PRECIPITATION SHIELD TO OUR
SOUTH.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
BY THE END OF THE WORK WEEK...ALL THE MODELS HAVE A MAJOR SOUTHERN
STREAM SYSTEM COMING OUT OF THE SOUTHERN PLAINS. WHILE ALL AGREE
THIS WILL BE A HIGHER AMPLITUDE SYSTEM THAN THE PREVIOUS AND BEGIN
TO AFFECT US FRIDAY NIGHT...THERE ARE MODEL DIFFERENCES IN HOW THIS
SYSTEM EVOLVES AND THE TRACK IT TAKES OVER THE WEEKEND. ALL THIS HAS
TO DO WITH THE BLOCKY PATTERN ACROSS CANADA. CONSIDERING THE
OPERATIONAL MODELS...THE EURO IS THE OUTLIER MODEL IN KEEPING THE
CANADIAN BLOCK SUCH THAT THIS APPROACHING SYSTEM TAKES A MORE
SOUTHERN ROUTE...WITH THE PARENT LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TRACKING WELL
SOUTH AND EAST OF US. THIS KEEPS ENOUGH COLD AIR FOR THE
PRECIPITATION TO BE AT LEAST A WINTRY MIX. THE UKMET...CMC AND GFS
MODELS ARE RATHER SIMILAR IN BREAKING DOWN THE CANADIAN BLOCK ENOUGH
TO ALLOW A WEAKENING PARENT LOW TO TRACK UP JUST WEST OF THE
MOUNTAINS SATURDAY BEFORE REGENERATING ALONG THE EAST COAST...BUT
WITH THE GFS LOOKING TO BE A BIT TOO WARM. THE PREFERRED MODEL
CONSENSUS...WITH A SLIGHTLY COOLER VERSION OF THE GFS...WILL ALLOW A
WINTRY MIX AT THE BEGINNING FOR FRIDAY NIGHT. THE PRECIPITATION WILL
TREND TO MOSTLY RAIN OVER MUCH OF THE LOW LANDS SATURDAY...BEFORE
CHANGING BACK TO A WINTRY MIX AND THEN SNOW SATURDAY NIGHT INTO
SUNDAY MORNING AS COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. AT THIS DISTANT TIME
FRAME...AND GIVEN THE CHANGES THAT CAN OCCUR IN THIS COMPLICATED
SPLIT FLOW PATTERN...WILL ONLY MENTION THE POTENTIAL IN THE
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK FOR THE WEEKEND STORM. IN ANY CASE...LOOK
FOR TEMPERATURES TO BE NEAR SEASONABLE LEVELS.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
FIRST BAND OF PRE FRONTAL SHOWERS PUSHING THROUGH CKB/CRW AND
LATER THROUGH EKN/BKW. WILL GET A BREAK IN THE SHRA BEHIND THIS
BAND BUT WILL BRING CEILINGS DOWN TO PREVAILING MVFR. COLD FRONT
WITH ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS AFTER 15Z TODAY...AGAIN WEST TO EAST
FOR THE MOST PART. SHOULD BE QUICK MOVERS WITH WINDS GUSTING WITH
THE FRONTAL PASSAGE TO 25KTS. WINDS STAY UP BEHIND THE FRONT
THROUGH 06Z TONIGHT HAS CEILINGS CONTINUE TO LOWER...HEADING INTO
THE IFR RANGE LATER TONIGHT TOWARDS THE END OF THE FORECAST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY ONLY NEED AN HOUR OF SHOWERS WITH THE
FRONT. ALLOWED FOR TWO HOURS. IFR CEILINGS TIMING TONIGHT COULD
VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN CLOUDS DRIZZLE/FREEZING DRIZZLE IN THE MOUNTAINS
TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JMV/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...JMV
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...26










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