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000
FXUS61 KRLX 260009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THRU 04Z...WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING GENERAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AFTER 04Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL AROUND 13Z...THEN IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO VFR BY 22Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB-EKN LINE...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TIL
AROUND 03Z...OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z. AFTER 08Z BECOMING
VFR AND SCT CLDS BY 16Z.

REMAINDER OF AREA...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...LIFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THRU 04Z. AFTER 04Z IFR IN LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 09Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND THEN TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORECAST CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
SOMEWHAT...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 260009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THRU 04Z...WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING GENERAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AFTER 04Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL AROUND 13Z...THEN IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO VFR BY 22Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB-EKN LINE...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TIL
AROUND 03Z...OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z. AFTER 08Z BECOMING
VFR AND SCT CLDS BY 16Z.

REMAINDER OF AREA...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...LIFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THRU 04Z. AFTER 04Z IFR IN LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 09Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND THEN TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORECAST CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
SOMEWHAT...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 260009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THRU 04Z...WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING GENERAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AFTER 04Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL AROUND 13Z...THEN IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO VFR BY 22Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB-EKN LINE...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TIL
AROUND 03Z...OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z. AFTER 08Z BECOMING
VFR AND SCT CLDS BY 16Z.

REMAINDER OF AREA...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...LIFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THRU 04Z. AFTER 04Z IFR IN LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 09Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND THEN TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORECAST CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
SOMEWHAT...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 260009
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
748 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
00Z SUNDAY THRU 00Z MONDAY...
EAST TO WEST FRONTAL BOUNDARY CURRENTLY SOUTH OF A HTS-CRW-BKW LINE
WILL SLOWLY DROP SOUTHWARD LATER TONIGHT BEHIND A WAVE OF LOW
PRESSURE THAT RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS
SOUTH DURING THE AFTERNOON.

SOUTH OF HTS-CRW-BKW LINE...CONVECTIVE COMPLEX WILL CROSS THE AREA
THRU 04Z...WITH VFR/MVFR CEILINGS BECOMING GENERAL IFR IN SHOWERS
AND STORMS. AFTER 04Z...NORTHERLY WINDS WILL INITIALLY BRING IFR
CEILINGS IN LIGHT RAIN TIL AROUND 13Z...THEN IMPROVING FROM NORTH TO
SOUTH TO VFR BY 22Z.

NORTH OF A PKB-CKB-EKN LINE...OCCASIONAL LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS TIL
AROUND 03Z...OTHERWISE...MVFR CEILINGS THRU 08Z. AFTER 08Z BECOMING
VFR AND SCT CLDS BY 16Z.

REMAINDER OF AREA...MAINLY EXTREME SOUTHEAST OHIO ACROSS CENTRAL
WEST VIRGINIA...LIFR WITH RAIN SHOWERS AND AN EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS
THRU 04Z. AFTER 04Z IFR IN LIGHT RAIN. AFTER 09Z IMPROVING TO MVFR
CEILINGS AND THEN TO VFR CEILINGS AFTER 15Z.


FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM TONIGHT.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FORECAST CONDITIONS MAY SHIFT NORTH OR SOUTH
SOMEWHAT...DEPENDING ON EXACT TRACK OF THE WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE
ALONG THE FRONT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            SUN 04/26/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    M    M    M    M    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 252304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 252304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 252304
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
657 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. TOOK THUNDER CHANCES NORTHWARD INTO CENTRAL WV PER
RADAR TRENDS UNTIL 04Z...UNTIL FRONT DROPS FAR ENOUGH SOUTH. SEVERE
POTENTIAL STILL LIMITED OVER FAR SOUTHERN AREAS OF CWA.
OTHERWISE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z MONDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 251920
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
254 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE ON MONDAY COULD PROVIDE SOME SHOWERS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS HAVE A HEALTHY SHORT WAVE MOVING THROUGH THE REGION ON
MONDAY. MODELS DIFFER ON HOW DYNAMIC THIS SYSTEM IS...WITH THE NAM
BEING ONE OF THE MORE AGGRESSIVE. THE NAM HOWEVER IS EXTREMELY
CONSISTENT WITH RUNS ON FRIDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS A LITTLE
MORE...BUT STILL KEEP IN THE CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES. WITH
CLOUDS MOVING IN AND THE POTENTIAL FOR SHOWERS...WILL GO BELOW MOS
GUIDANCE HIGH TEMPERATURES.

COOL NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY BUT MOISTURE
BECOMES TO THIN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 251824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251824
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
224 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT.
DRIER AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY QUASI STATIONARY JUST S OF I64
CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS
AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE
CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH
AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS
TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO
ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO
1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING
TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A
3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE
BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING
THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH THRU THE AREA. EXPECT IFR CIGS FOR KHTS/KCRW/AND
KBKW. GENERALLY MVFR VSBY WITH THE SHRA. CIGS MAY LOWER
INTO VLIFR FOR A TIME THIS TONIGHT KHTS/KCRW/KBKW. MVFR CIGS
SHOULD MAKE IT INTO N TERMINALS BY 00Z. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE
PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. THIS WILL ALLOW THE WARM FRONT
TO SAG S AS A COLD...WITH GRADUALLY IMPROVING CIGS FROM N TO S
OVERNIGHT. DRIER AIR WORKS IN FOR SUNDAY...WITH LINGERING MVFR
STRATOCU FOR KCRW/KBKW IN THE MORNING...LIFTING TO 4-5 THSD FOOT
STRATOCU AREAWIDE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: THE WARM FRONT COULD LIFT FAR ENOUGH NORTH
FOR A TIME LATE THIS AFTN FOR CIGS TO IMPROVE TO MVFR
KHTS/KCRW/KBKW BEFORE BOUNDARY SAGS S AGAIN.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB/30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB/30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB/30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251711
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
111 PM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
UPPER TROUGH DROPPING IN FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL PHASE WITH AN
UPPER TROUGH AXIS OVER THE DEEP SOUTH OVER THE SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TO THE CAROLINA COAST. SOUTHERN SYSTEM SHOULD STAY TO
THE SOUTH OF US...WHERE THE BETTER THREAT FOR RAIN LIES...BUT THE
PHASING NORTHERN STREAM TROUGH ALOFT WILL BRING SCATTERED SHOWERS
AND GENERAL COOL AND UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE AREA FOR THE END
OF THE WEEK. DEEP SOUTH RIDGING WILL FOLLOW ITS WAKE...ALLOWING
FOR A MARKED CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC SCALE PATTERN...WHICH SHOULD
DRY US OUT AND WARM US UP TO MORE NORMAL TEMPERATURES.

&&

.AVIATION /17Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB/30
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251503
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251503
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251503
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1103 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...MESOSCALE UPDATE
1100 AM...

EARLIER SHRA HAVE ALL BUT DISSIPATED ALONG THE H850 FRONT AS IT
MADE ITS WAY INTO E OH AND N WV THIS MORNING. IN ITS WAKE THE SFC
WARM FRONT...CURRENTLY MAKING ITS WAY THRU E KY AND S WV. LIFT
AND CONVERGENCE ALONG THE BOUNDARY IS PROVIDING FOR EXPANSIVE AREA
OF LIGHT TO MOD SHRA. THIS AXIS WILL GRADUALLY SHIFT NE AS AFTN
PROGRESSES...WITH THE WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY REMAINING QUASI
STATIONARY JUST S OF I64 CORRIDOR. TREND IN THE HI RES MODELS IS
FOR BULK OF QPF LATER THIS AFTN AND THIS EVE TO REMAIN ALONG AND S
OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHERE CONVECTION RESIDES. IN FACT...HRRR IS
TRENDING DRY ACROSS SE OH AND N WV THIS EVENING. SO...APPEARS THE
ONLY AREA OF CONCERN IS TWO SW VA CO AND MAYBE SE WV WITH REGARDS
TO FLOODING. WILL FORGO ANY WATCH AT THIS POINT AS THIS AREA
SHOULD BE ABLE TO HANDLE 1 TO 1.5 INCHES. SOMETHING TO WATCH
THOUGH AS CONVECTION WILL BE TRYING TO FIRE ALONG THE BOUNDARY
DOWN THERE THIS AFTN...PROVIDING FOR A 3 HR WINDOW OF TRAINING
POTENTIAL BEFORE THE BAROCLINIC ZONE BEGINS TO SHIFT S AS A COLD
FRONT WITH LOW PRESSURE TRAVERSING THRU CUMBERLAND PLATEAU.

CONCERNING SVR POTENTIAL...
THERE DOES EXIST SOME IMPRESSIVE DEEP AND LOW LEVEL SHEAR ALONG
THE BOUNDARY WITH INSTABILITY BECOMING SFC BASED JUST SOUTH OF THE
BOUNDARY. TEMPS WILL TRY TO SPIKE TO NEAR 70 IN SW VA. SPC CONT TO
HIGHLIGHT MAINLY DICKENSON IN SLIGHT RISK...WITH ENHANCED JUST TO
THE SW. RIGHT NOW IT APPEARS THERE WILL BE ABOUT A 3 HR WINDOW IN
THE 21Z TO 00Z TIME FRAME FOR SVR WITH SCT CONVECTION DEVELOPING
ALONG THE BOUNDARY. AFTER THAT...UPSTREAM LOW PRESSURE/COMPLEX
WILL TRACK FROM C KY INTO NE TN...ALLOWING THIS BOUNDARY TO SHIFT
S...TAKING THE SVR POTENTIAL WITH IT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 251040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 251040
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
640 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A WARM FRONT IS SETTING UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS
SPREADING NORTH TODAY. EXPECT PERIODS OF MVFR WITH THESE...AND
POSSIBLY EVEN BRIEF IFR VISIBILITY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE PASSES
JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS THE SOUTH. AGAIN LOOKING AT MVFR TO POSSIBLY IFR WITH THIS.
HAVE IFR CIGS FOR THE EASTERN SLOPES TONIGHT WITH SE FLOW.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H

AFTER 12Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLY LINGERING IN STRATUS INTO SUNDAY MORNING...MAINLY IN
THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 250804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN
DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ







000
FXUS61 KRLX 250804
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
403 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WARM FRONT BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY ACROSS SOUTHERN COUNTIES TODAY.
LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG FRONT AND PASSES LATE TONIGHT. DRIER
AIR MOVES SOUTH SUNDAY. CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SEVERAL THINGS TO WATCH THROUGH THE NEAR TERM AS A SURFACE LOW MOVES
THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO RIVER VALLEY INTO THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
APPALACHIANS TODAY INTO TONIGHT. CURRENTLY HAVE SPRINKLES/SHOWERS
ACROSS THE NW CWA ASSOCIATED WITH A FAIRLY WEAK SHORTWAVE
TROUGH/VORT MAX THAT IS COMING OUT OF THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. DO
NOT ANTICIPATE MUCH WITH THESE...AND JUST WENT WITH ISOLATED
SPRINKLES. ALSO HAVE SHOWERS MOVING IN FROM THE SOUTH. THESE APPEAR
TO BE FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE 850MB WARM FRONT...WHICH WILL GRADUALLY
LIFT NORTH ACROSS CWA TODAY. KEPT THE IDEA OF A LULL IN SHOWERS
AFTER THE BAND OF HIGHER POPS MOVES NORTH WITH THE FRONT.

SURFACE WARM FRONT LOOKS TO GET HUNG UP ACROSS SOUTHERN CWA...OR
POSSIBLY JUST SOUTH OF CWA. THIS WILL BE THE FOCUS FOR SHOWERS AND
STORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT AS THE SURFACE LOW MOVES
EAST. SOME UNCERTAINTY ON JUST WHERE THIS FRONT WILL SET UP...AND
THAT WILL PLAY A FAIRLY LARGE ROLE IN THE LOCATION OF STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS AND REPETITIVE SHOWERS CHANCES. HAVE SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS MOVING ACROSS SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS THIS EVENING INTO
TONIGHT...AND WILL HAVE TO WATCH JUST HOW THESE ORIENT THEMSELVES.
SHOULD HAVE A BETTER IDEA BY MID AFTERNOON AS CONVECTION GETS
ORGANIZED IN WESTERN AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. DEBATED GOING WITH A
FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR FAR SOUTHERN CWA...BUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN
JUST WHERE THE BEST AXIS WILL SET UP...AND IN COORDINATION WITH
SURROUNDING WFOS...OPTED TO HOLD OFF FOR THIS FORECAST PACKAGE. WILL
CONTINUE MENTION IN HWO...AND WILL ALSO CONTINUE MENTION OF
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG TO SEVERE STORMS IN SW VA.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND FOR HIGHS TODAY...RESULTING IN A DEGREE OR
TWO COOLER ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA. MANUALLY ADJUSTED EASTERN
SLOPES...LIKE BKW...EVEN A BIT COOLER WITH SE FLOW KEEPING THE
CLOUDS IN PLACE AND LIMITING INSOLATION. MINIMAL CHANGES MADE TO
LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
DEEPER MOISTURE EXITING QUICKLY AFTER 12Z SUNDAY. BOTH 850 AND 925
MB LOWS SHOULD BE TO OUR EAST...ALLOWING A NORTH FLOW TO DEVELOP.
WILL HOLD ONTO THE CLOUDS AND DECREASING POPS THE LONGEST OVER THE
SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS FROM BKW ON SOUTH TOWARD GRUNDY AND CLINTWOOD
VCNTY OF SW VIRGINIA.

A VORT LOBE/TROF AROUND THE 500 MB CLOSED LOW OFF NEW ENGLAND WRAPS
SOUTH AND PASSES DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY.  WILL INCREASE POPS
SLIGHTLY INTO THE 30 TO 40 PERCENT RANGE FOR CKB-EKN VCNTY FOR SOME
LIGHT SHOWERS.  HAD RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS FOR THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAIN
COUNTIES. LINGERED SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS OVER OUR CENTRAL WV
MOUNTAIN COUNTIES MONDAY NIGHT IN THE COOL POOL.

PATCHES OF CLOUDS AND SOME WIND MAY LINGER MONDAY NIGHT IN THE
LOWLAND COUNTIES...BUT COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME FROST.  TOO MARGINAL
AT THIS DISTANCE TO INCLUDE AS A HAZARD FOR THE LOWLAND COUNTIES.

THE TRENDS MADE YESTERDAY ARE STILL HOLDING FOR DRY CONDITION ON
TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN
DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ






000
FXUS61 KRLX 250522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN
DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 250522
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 AM EDT SAT APR 25 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
VFR SHOULD REMAIN IN PLACE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING
HOURS...ALTHOUGH CLOUDS WILL BE INCREASING AND LOWERING. A WARM
FRONT SETS UP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN CWA...WITH SHOWERS SPREADING
NORTH TODAY. EXPECT MVFR WITH THESE...AND COULD EVEN GET BRIEF
PERIODS OF IFR VISIBILITY. DID NOT INCLUDE THIS IN THE TAF DUE TO
LOW CONFIDENCE...BUT BEST CHANCE WOULD BE ACROSS THE SOUTH. LOW
PRESSURE PASSES JUST TO OUR SOUTH TONIGHT...WITH ANOTHER BATCH OF
SHOWERS...MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTH. COULD GET A RUMBLE OF THUNDER
WITH THIS BUT AGAIN LEFT OUT DUE TO UNCERTAINTY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR TODAY AND TONIGHT IN
THE HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY AS RAIN
DIMINISHES...MAINLY IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 250252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1042 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT...SO WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN BANDS OF SHRA LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND LOWEST
CATEGORIES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH...AND OVER EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I 64
CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 250252
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1042 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
03Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF A NORTHWARD MOVING
WARM FRONT...SO WILL SEE VFR CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING
TONIGHT...WITH SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE AREA BY 12Z.

WARM FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF THE
AREA SATURDAY...WITH MVFR CONDITIONS IN BANDS OF SHRA LIFTING NORTH
AND EAST. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT THE HEAVIEST SHOWERS AND LOWEST
CATEGORIES WILL BE MAINLY IN THE SOUTH...AND OVER EAST FACING SLOPES
OF THE MOUNTAINS. THUNDER POTENTIAL MAINLY SOUTH OF THE I 64
CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS SOUTH.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  SAT 04/25/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...JMV/30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 250022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...ESPECIALLY SE OHIO AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30/JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 250022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...ESPECIALLY SE OHIO AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30/JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 250022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...ESPECIALLY SE OHIO AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30/JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 250022
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
A WARM FRONT BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW
PRESSURE RIDES EAST ALONG THE FRONT AND PASSES WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY BEHIND THE LOW.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INCREASED CLOUDS FASTER OVERNIGHT WITH SHOWERS RAPIDLY
SPREADING NORTHWARD ON SATURDAY.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
00Z SATURDAY THRU 00Z SUNDAY...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE VFR
CLOUDS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN A TREND TO MAINLY MVFR CONDITIONS FROM SOUTH TO
NORTH...ESPECIALLY SE OHIO AND EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CONDITIONS MAY LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY IN THE
HEAVIER RAIN SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30/JMV
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 241849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONCENTRATING ON
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND VA...WHILE OTHER CONCENTRATE MORE
ON THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL WV. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT PREFER TO
LET THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER FIRST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ENERGY...PROVIDING SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSED. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SMALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALOFT
DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLINGING THE
FRINGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL IN
ALL...THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE WITHOUT ANY DIRECT HITS FROM UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIDGING ALOFT FINALLY LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30











000
FXUS61 KRLX 241849
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
239 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS VARY CONSIDERABLY ON THE PLACEMENT OF THE HEAVIER RAINFALL
SATURDAY NIGHT...WITH SOME MODELS SUCH AS THE NAM CONCENTRATING ON
CONVECTION ACROSS SOUTHERN WV AND VA...WHILE OTHER CONCENTRATE MORE
ON THE PERSISTENT STRATIFORM RAIN ALONG THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN
CENTRAL WV. MAY EVENTUALLY NEED A FLASH FLOOD WATCH...BUT PREFER TO
LET THE MODELS LOCK ONTO THE SITUATION A BIT BETTER FIRST.

PRECIPITATION SHOULD TAPPER OFF ON SUNDAY AS THE SYSTEM MOVE OFF TO
THE EAST. MODELS ARE THEN SHOWING AN UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVE ROTATING
AROUND THE UPPER LOW ON MONDAY. NAM IS THE MOST AGGRESSIVE WITH THIS
ENERGY...PROVIDING SOME DEEP MOISTURE AND LIFT...AND THEREFORE
PRECIPITATION. OTHER MODELS ARE NOT AS IMPRESSED. WILL INTRODUCE
SOME SMALL POPS FURTHER SOUTH AND WEST ON MONDAY WITH THIS FEATURE.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
CUTOFF LOW DEPARTS MONDAY NIGHT...TO BE REPLACED BY WEAK SURFACE
HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER CUTOFF LOW ALOFT
DIGS INTO THE DEEP SOUTH TOWARDS THE SOUTHEAST COAST...SLINGING THE
FRINGE OF MOISTURE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ALL IN
ALL...THIS KEEPS TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL AND ON THE
UNSETTLED SIDE WITHOUT ANY DIRECT HITS FROM UPPER LEVEL/SURFACE LOW
PRESSURE SYSTEMS. RIDGING ALOFT FINALLY LOOKS TO RETURN AT THE END
OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30












000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241829
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
229 PM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV BY SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
CHANGEABLE WX IN THE NEAR TERM...RESULTING IN AN UNSETTLED
SATURDAY. CIRRUS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THIS EVENING...WITH MID
LEVEL CLOUDS TO FOLLOW OVERNIGHT. GIVEN THE VERY DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...THINK A QUICK DROP IN TEMPS THIS EVENING ONCE THE WIND
SLACKENS...ESPECIALLY OFF THE HILLTOPS. THIS MAY ALLOW FOR SOME
MID 30S AFTER MIDNIGHT...ESPECIALLY N ZONES. THERE COULD BE SOME
BRIEF PATCHY FROST BEFORE CLOUDS BECOME THE RULE UP THAT WAY.

FOR SATURDAY...WILL BE FOLLOWING A DEVELOPING BAROCLINIC ZONE/WARM
FRONT EXTENDING FROM MS VALLEY LOW PRESSURE INTO OUR REGION. QUITE
A BIT OF LIFT AND LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE WILL BE BATTLING
INITIALLY DRY LOW LEVELS FOR BANDS OF SHRA TO ROLL THRU SATURDAY
MORNING FROM SW TO NE. THIS MAY BREAK UP A BIT AS IT HEADS INTO N
WV AND E OH. NOT EXPECTING MUCH QPF WITH THIS AS IT WORKS
THRU...GENERALLY A QUARTER INCH OR LESS.

THINK A LULL WILL BE IN THE CARDS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS FORCING
SHIFT N OF CWA AND AREA AWAITS ARRIVAL OF LOW PRESSURE FROM THE W.
THERE PROBABLY WILL BE A GOOD TEMP GRADIENT FROM S TO N WITH S
AREAS REACHING LOW TO MID 60S...WHILE E OH AND N WV STRUGGLE TO
SURPASS LOW 50S.


&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH BULK OF THE
OVERNIGHT HRS...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE CIRRUS
THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

A WARM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE FIRST
HALF OF SATURDAY WITH BANDS OF SHRA. CURRENT THINKING IS THIS WILL
RESULT IN MAINLY MVFR VSBY WITH SOME LOWERING MVFR CIGS FOR SE OH
AND E WV SLOPES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...30









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241412
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1012 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1015 AM UPDATE...

FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. EXPIRED FRZ WARNING AND FRESHENED UP THE
GRIDS TDY PER LATEST MODEL TRENDS. JUST SOME CIRRUS EXPECTED THIS
AFTERNOON. RH VALUES WILL TAKE A HIT...ESPECIALLY IN SE WV AND SW
VA. HOWEVER GUSTY WINDS SHOULD BE CONFINED TO THE HILLTOPS AND E
SLOPES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY
500MB RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT
THE SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR
THE SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN
ADVANCE OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS
STREAMING IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS
SYSTEM. WITH THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER
LEVELS TO MOISTEN UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ/30
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 241036
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
636 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...SO WILL SEE
CIRRUS THICKENING AND LOWERING TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240801
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
400 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL INTO TONIGHT.  LOW PRESSURE RIDES EAST
ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY AND PASSES SOUTHERN WV LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
CHILLY NORTH FLOW SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE CWA TODAY...WITH A DIRTY 500MB
RIDGE MOVING IN FROM THE WEST. DRY AIR REMAINS IN PLACE AT THE
SURFACE...AND IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE. WITH THE DRY AIR NEAR THE
SURFACE...WILL AGAIN SEE LOW RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES
TODAY...HOWEVER WINDS WILL NOT BE AS STRONG AS THURSDAY WITH THE
HIGH MOVING ACROSS. MOISTURE WILL BEGIN INCREASING ALOFT IN ADVANCE
OF AN SURFACE AND UPPER LEVEL LOW TONIGHT...WITH CIRRUS STREAMING
IN. ALSO HAVE POPS INCREASING TOWARD 12Z AHEAD THIS SYSTEM. WITH
THAT SAID...WILL TAKE A WHILE FOR THE DRY LOWER LEVELS TO MOISTEN
UP...SO ANTICIPATE LOTS OF VIRGA INITIALLY.

USED A BLEND OF MAV/MET FOR HIGHS TODAY...MAINLY COOLING OFF THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS OF THE MOUNTAINS A DEGREE OR TWO. MINIMAL CHANGES
MADE TO FORECAST LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
STRONG BAROCLINIC ZONE SETS UP FROM WNW TO ESE ACROSS CWA ON
SATURDAY. EXAMPLE...00Z GFS HAS 18Z SAT 850 TEMPS FROM +5C CKB TO
+10 NEAR GRUNDY.

WITH SOUTHEAST FLOW AND INCREASING POPS...ON NORTH SIDE OF THE
FRONTAL BOUNDARY...HAD TO LOWER MAXIMUM TEMPERATURES ESPECIALLY ON
THE SOUTHEAST UPSLOPE AREAS.

SOME RENEGADE LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS OR SPRINKLES MAY TRY TO REACH THE
GROUND OVER NRN COUNTIES 12Z TO 16Z SATURDAY...BUT OVERALL WAS
SLOWER INCREASING THE POPS NORTH OF THE ROUTE 50 CORRIDOR SATURDAY.

WILL TRY TO PAINT A LULL OR DECREASE IN THE POPS LATER SATURDAY
AFTERNOON IN THE SOUTHERN LOWLANDS AFTER THE INITIAL SHOWERS PULL
NORTH AND EAST.

FIGURING THE SURFACE LOW WILL BE A BIT SLOWER THAN THE 00Z NAM
SOLUTION...MORE TOWARD THE GFS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS.  HAVE WEAKENING
SURFACE LOW PASSING THROUGH SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA 06Z TO 12Z
SUNDAY.  BEST SUPPORT AND INSTABILITY FOR TALLER THUNDERSTORMS
SHOULD BE TO OUR WEST AND SOUTHWEST AT 00Z SUNDAY...SAY OVER CENTRAL
KENTUCKY...BUT MAY CARRY EAST INTO OUR SOUTHERN COUNTIES SATURDAY
EVENING. WILL INCLUDE BOTH THE WATER AND SEVERE CONCERNS IN OUR
HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK.  SHOWERS COULD BECOME ALIGNED WEST TO
EAST ALONG THE FLOW. THINKING 1.5 INCHES OF RAIN OR MORE WOULD BE
NEEDED IN 3 HOURS FOR CONCERNS ALONG SMALL STREAMS.

A COOLER NORTH FLOW TAKES OVER FOR SUNDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY.  WILL
KEEP SOME 20 TO 30 POPS FOR LIGHT RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN
WEST VIRGINIA COUNTIES.

ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO REMOVE POPS FOR TUESDAY AS WE REMAIN IN THE
CIRCULATION OFF THE EAST COAST.  WILL HOLD THE MOISTURE INCREASING
FROM THE SOUTHWEST UNTIL WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ
NEAR TERM...MZ
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ













000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 240521
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
121 AM EDT FRI APR 24 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /05Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH THE TAF
PERIOD...ALONG WITH LIGHT WINDS. MOISTURE WILL BE INCREASING
AHEAD AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES...SO
WILL SEE CIRRUS THICKENING UP TOWARD THE END OF THE PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                  FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
EDT 1HRLY       22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING UNTIL 9 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MZ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV











000
FXUS61 KRLX 232324
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
709 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
7 PM UPDATE. DRY TONIGHT WITH FROST OR FREEZE MANY LOCATIONS.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A WEAK
TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS FOR THIS
FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR TUESDAY.
OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER MONDAY...WITH THE GFS
BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE
00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO
THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH
THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
00Z FRIDAY THRU 00Z SATURDAY...

VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY NW WINDS WILL
QUICKLY SLACKEN THIS EVENING...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE HIGHER MOUNTAIN ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT W WINDS WILL INCREASE AGAIN BY AFTERNOON...WITH
GUSTS GENERALLY LESS THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS..BUT TO 25 KT
OVER THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 04/24/15
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JMV












000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231810
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
210 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FRIDAY NIGHT REMAINS DRY AS A HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING FROM
CANADA...ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES...SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE OH
VALLEY...CONTINUING SOUTHEAST INTO THE MID ATLANTIC STATES REMAINS
IN CONTROL.

HOWEVER...WEATHER WILL DETERIORATE AS A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVES
ACROSS KY/OH BORDER AND INTO WV SATURDAY ACCORDING TO THE GFS. AS
THE LOW APPROACHES...FLOW BECOMES SOUTH SOUTHWEST BRINGING A SURGE
OF MOISTURE AND SOME WARM ADVECTION SATURDAY MORNING. AT THE SAME
TIME...MODELS SHOW AN H500 DIRTY RIDGE WITH A SHORT WAVE. THIS SHORT
WAVE COULD ENHANCE SHOWERS AND FEW THUNDERSTORMS SATURDAY MORNING
MAINLY ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE CWA...SPREADING EAST AND
NORTH THROUGH SUNDAY. THE NAM HAS BEEN CONSISTENT WITH THE ONSET OF
PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTH WHILE THE GFS AND ECMWF HAVE BEEN SHOWING
DIFFERENCES IN TIMING THIS EVENT. NOW THE ECMWF COMES IN LINE WITH
THE NAM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SUNDAY.

THE SHOWERS MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SATURDAY MORNING...WITH
THE CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA
SATURDAY. HPC HAVE THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE AREA IN GENERAL THUNDER
WITH MARGINAL CATEGORY FURTHER SOUTH.

EXPECT ELEVATED INSTABILITY WITH HIGH LAYERED SHEAR BUT ABSENCE OF
SFC THERMODYNAMICS. PRECIPITABLE WATER INCREASES RAPIDLY FROM THREE
QUARTERS INCHES TO 1.25 INCHES BY 18Z SATURDAY. KEPT HIGH LIKELY TO
CATEGORICAL POPS WITH THIS RAIN ACTIVITY WITH CHANCE FOR
THUNDERSTORMS INCREASING TOWARDS THE AFTERNOON HOURS.

WITH THE LOW PASSING TO OUR SOUTH...EXPECT LOWER QPF THAN PREVIOUS
FORECAST. PERHAPS FROM HALF TO THREE QUARTERS OF AN INCH WITH HIGHER
AMOUNTS EXTREME SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT WEST TO EAST SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
WEST TO EAST SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

USED ALL BLEND GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231807
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
207 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
WEAK UPPER TROUGH AXIS MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
AFTER THE MID ATLANTIC LOW EXITS...UPPER LOW RETROGRADES FROM
ATLANTIC CANADA SOUTHWESTWARD INTO NEW YORK STATE...DROPPING A
WEAK TROUGH AXIS IN FROM THE NORTH. CARRY LOW END MOUNTAIN POPS
FOR THIS FEATURE FOR MONDAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING IN FOR
TUESDAY. OPERATIONAL MODELS DIVERGE SIGNIFICANTLY AFTER
MONDAY...WITH THE GFS BRINGING A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM ACROSS THE
SOUTH AGAIN...WHILE THE 00Z ECMWF KEEPS THE CWA DRY THROUGH THE
EXTENDED. GOING CLOSER TO THE GFS FOR THIS ISSUANCE WITH SOME
BELOW AVERAGE CONFIDENCE WITH THE POPS THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...JSH










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH






000
FXUS61 KRLX 231800
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
200 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TOMORROW. LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES LATE SATURDAY NIGHT.
COOL AIR FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK. LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS DRY AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON MORNING
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS HAS MIXED DOWN WITH DEWPOINTS ACROSS SOUTHERN
COUNTIES IN THE TEENS AND LOWER 20S. MAINLY DIURNAL CLOUDS HAVE
DEVELOPED ACROSS NORTHERN PORTIONS OF THE AREA.

MODELS SUGGEST A WEAK FEATURE WILL MOVE ACROSS THIS EVENING INTO
THE NIGHTTIME HOURS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT RAIN OR SNOW
ACROSS OUR FAR NORTHEASTERN COUNTIES BEFORE MIDNIGHT. THE SYSTEM
SHOULD THEN PUSH EAST...TAKING MOST OF THE CLOUDS WITH IT.

THE COMBINATION OF FEW CLOUDS...DRY LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND LIGHT
WINDS SHOULD RESULT IN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR RADIATIONAL
COOLING...ESPECIALLY ACROSS OUR SOUTH. WITH THIS IN MIND...
ADJUSTED LOW TEMPS ACROSS THE SOUTH DOWNWARD.

THIS CHANGE RESULTED IN MUCH OF THE AREA POSSIBLY SEEING LOWS
TONIGHT RIGHT AROUND FREEZING. I AM SURE AREAS ALONG THE RIVERS
AND URBAN AREAS WILL BE WARMER. HOWEVER...OUTLYING AREAS WILL
LIKELY SEE TEMPS AT OR BELOW FREEZING BY MORNING. HAVE EXPANDED
FREEZE WARNING TO INCLUDE ALL OF OUR REGION...EXCEPT FOR THE
CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES...WHERE THE GROWING SEASON HAS NOT
STARTED YET.

LOTS OF SUNSHINE...LIGHT WINDS AND DRY CONDITIONS SHOULD RESULT IN
NICE CONDITIONS BY TOMORROW AFTERNOON.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
18Z THURSDAY THRU 18Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL
GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS WILL
CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. UNTIL 00Z...GUSTS TO 25 KT ARE
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS WITH 35 KT GUSTS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE
HIGHEST ELEVATIONS.

AFTER 14Z...EXPECT WINDS WILL INCREASE WITH GUSTS GENERALLY LESS
THAN 15 KT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND 25 KT OVER THE MOUNTAINS LATE.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>011-
     013>020-024>031-033-034.
OH...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-083>087.
KY...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FREEZE WARNING FROM 1 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/ARJ/26
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...JSH







000
FXUS61 KRLX 231611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS MIXING HAS
ACTED TO BRING DOWN THE MUCH DRIER AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12 UTC
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOT WENTIRELY SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING...BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES
ARE ALREADY SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM
YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH
FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 231611
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1211 PM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
ADJUSTED DEWPOINTS DOWNWARD FOR TODAY AND EARLY TONIGHT AS MIXING HAS
ACTED TO BRING DOWN THE MUCH DRIER AIR THAT WAS SEEN ON THE 12 UTC
UPPER AIR ANALYSIS. ALSO SLOWED DOWN ANY PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
NORTHERN COUNTIES. NOT WENTIRELY SURE IF WE WILL SEE
ANYTHING...BUT WILL LEAVE IN FOR NOW.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER
FOR MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE
PLENTY OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW
RELATIVE HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES
ARE ALREADY SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM
YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH
FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /16Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231029
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO
DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 231029
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
629 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO
DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
12Z THURSDAY THRU 12Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS DURING THE PERIOD. GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK
UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER 14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE
LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT
RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN.

WINDS WILL GENERALLY SLACKEN AFTER 00Z...ALTHOUGH OCCASIONAL GUSTS
WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL










000
FXUS61 KRLX 230912
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
512 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL TODAY...AND MOVES OUT FRIDAY NIGHT.  LOW
PRESSURE APPROACHES SATURDAY AND CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT.  COOL AIR
FOLLOWS EARLY NEXT WEEK.  LOW PRESSURE MAY ARRIVE MIDWEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
OVERALL...QUIET WEATHER IN THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. HIGH
PRESSURE...BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST WILL RESULT IN DRY WEATHER FOR
MUCH OF THE PERIOD. OBSERVED AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE PLENTY
OF DRY AIR ACROSS THE REGION...AND AS DAYTIME MIXING
COMMENCES...EXPECTING RELATIVE HUMIDITIES TO DIP INTO THE 20 TO
LOWER 30 PERCENT RANGE ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA...EXCEPT ACROSS THE
NORTH WHERE MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH A PASSING SHORTWAVE WILL KEEP
RELATIVE HUMIDITIES FROM FALLING TOO MUCH. IN ADDITION...ADDED A
SLIGHT CHANCE TO CHANCE OF POPS THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING ACROSS THE
NORTH WITH THIS FEATURE. ITS POSSIBLE THAT AN SPS FOR FIRE WEATHER
MAY BE NEEDED ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST KY...AND
SOUTHEAST OHIO TODAY TO ACCOUNT FOR THE GUSTY WINDS AND LOW RELATIVE
HUMIDITY THIS AFTERNOON...AS SOME OF THE AREA RAWS SITES ARE ALREADY
SHOWING DECENT DRYING OF FUEL MOISTURES FROM YESTERDAYS WINDS. WILL
ALLOW THE DAY SHIFT TO COLLABORATE WITH FORESTRY PARTNERS ON THIS TO
DEEM IF IT IS NECESSARY.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO NUDGE EASTWARD TONIGHT...WITH LIGHT
TO CALM WINDS DEVELOPING ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHERN WV...NORTHEAST
KY...AND PARTS OF SOUTHEAST OHIO. THIS ALONG WITH A CLEARING
SKY...AND COOLER AIR MASS IN PLACE...WILL ALLOW FOR A RATHER CHILLY
NIGHT...WITH FREEZING TEMPERATURES DEVELOPING ACROSS THE NORTH...AND
FROST ACROSS THE SOUTH. ELECTED TO GO AHEAD AND ISSUE BOTH
FROST/FREEZE HEADLINES FOR TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
FROSTY START TO THE PERIOD WITH CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE EXTENDING
SOUTHEASTWARD FROM CENTRAL CANADA SEWD THROUGH THE MIDDLE OHIO
VALLEY AND SRN APPALACHIANS...TO THE SERN CONUS.  MUCH OF THE
PORTION OF THIS RIDGE AXIS OVER THE CONUS GETS TAKEN OUT BY SAT
AFTERNOON...AS A LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM COMES OUT OF THE CENTRAL
PLAINS...AND GETS CLOSER TO ANOTHER LOITERING WELL OFF THE E COAST.

UPSTAIRS...THE SRN STREAM S/W TROUGH SUPPORTING THE APPROACHING SFC
LOW MINORS OUT AS IT MOVES EWD...AND GETS DRAWN INTO CIRCULATION OF
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW MEANDERING ABOUT NEW ENGLAND AND THE
CANADIAN MARITIMES.  AS A RESULT...THE SFC LOW TAKES A MORE NRN
TRACK INITIALLY...PUSHING INTO THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY...AND PUSHING
MILDER AIR INTO THE FCST AREA.  IT THEN JUMPS THE MOUNTAINS TO A
POSITION OFF THE NC COAST EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...ALLOWING THE RETURN
OF COOLER AIR TO THE FCST AREA.

MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON A WET SAT AND SAT NT.  THE SHOWERS
MOVE INTO THE FCST AREA FIRST THING SAT MORNING...WITH THE CHANCE
FOR THUNDERSTORMS PUSHING INTO THE SW HALF OF FCST AREA SAT...AND
THEN RETREATING BACK TOWARD THE TUG FORK SAT NT.  USED 8C DEW POINT
AT H85 AS A THRESHOLD FOR THUNDER TO REFLECT THE ELEVATED
INSTABILITY DRIVING THE CONVECTION.  AS FOR GENERAL POPS...THE
SHOWERS ARE LIKELY TO LINGER LONGEST OVER THE NRN WV MOUNTAINS SAT
NT...IN THE DEFORMATION AXIS NEAR WHAT WILL BE A VANISHING
CONFLUENCE ZONE.

MODEL AVERAGES CLOSE TO AN INCH TOTAL QPF ACROSS SRN PORTIONS OF THE
FCST AREA AND THE FCST IS CLOSE TO AN INCH THERE.  THAT SHOULD CAUSE
NOTHING MORE THAN SOME POOR DRAINAGE PONDING...AND THE ELEVATED
CONVECTION SHOULD BE NOT BE STRONG.  HOWEVER...DOWNPOURS ARE
POSSIBLE WHEN PW VALUES PEAK AROUND 1.2 NEAR THE TUG FORK IN THE
WARM ADVECTION SAT MORNING...AND PEAK AGAIN NEAR 1.3 NEAR OR JUST S
OF THE LOW PRESSURE CENTER...AGAIN NEAR THE TUG FORK...SAT EVENING.

THE LAST OF THE SHOWERS PULL OUT W TO E SUNDAY.  LOW CLOUDS WILL
LINGER FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING BEFORE MIXING OUT FOR SOME SUNSHINE
W TO E SUNDAY AFTERNOON.

ALLBLEND SEEMED TO WORK FOR TEMPERATURES.  IT WAS IN LINE WITH
PREVIOUS FCST FOR HIGHS FRI AND THAT FCST WAS LEFT UNCHANGED.  HAVE
HIGHS A LITTLE HIGHER THAN PREVIOUS FOR SAT AND A LITTLE LOWER FOR
SUNDAY...REFLECTING THE INITIAL NRN TRACK OF THE LOW AND THEN ITS
REDEVELOPMENT TO THE SE.  HIGHS THIS WEEKEND ARE BELOW MOS GUIDANCE
IN THE CLOUDS / RAIN.  STILL HAVE A SLIGHT RISE IN TEMPERATURES
TOWARD DAWN SAT AND RAISED LOWS FOR SUNDAY MORNING JUTS A BIT WITH A
SLOWER EXODUS OF THE ELONGATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AT
SITES SUCH AS KBKW. OVERALL GUSTY WINDS HAVE SLACKENED...BUT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE LOWLANDS...AND
IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR CONDITIONS DOMINATE FOR
THURSDAY WITH LOW END VFR STRATOCU ACROSS N TAF SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/23/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ005>009-
     013>018-024>027-033-034.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR WVZ010-011-019-
     020-028>031.
OH...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ083-085>087.
     FREEZE WARNING FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR OHZ066-067-075-
     076-084.
KY...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR KYZ101>103-105.
VA...FROST ADVISORY FROM 2 AM TO 9 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR VAZ003-004.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL







000
FXUS61 KRLX 230532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INSERTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EARLY EVENING PER RADAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPANDED PATCHY FROST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO BETTER CORRELATE
WITH FROST ADVISORIES TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THIS POSSIBLE FROST
EVENT EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
30S. RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES AFTER THE SUN RISES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH POST FRONTAL SHRA
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO
REBOUND AND DEWPTS TO MIX DOWN WHILE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY. TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AT TIMES ACROSS N ZONES WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHSN OVER THE N HIGH TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM OVER THE LOWLANDS HAS NOW STARTED. THANKFULLY...LINGERING
GRADIENT PUFF AND LARGE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD
FROST AT BAY. SOME CONCERN OVER NE KY AND SW VA...CLOSER TO
LIGHTER FLOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
UP N...TEMPS TRICKY REGARDING SUB FRZ. THINK GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP NUMBERS ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE OVER N ZONES...SO NO
HEADLINES UP THAT WAY.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE COOL AIR WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL BE ABUNDANT OVER PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N
THIRD OF WV...WITH MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN S ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST...TO
KEEP A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...EXPECT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...MOST PARTS OF
WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN BY FRI MORNING...TO
PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING RIPPLES OF VORTICITY
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ON SATURDAY...H850 WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTH
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS INCREASING
TO HIGH LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICKEST IN ITS QPF FIELD BRINGING THE
BULK OF PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BY 15Z SATURDAY. THE
LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO CATCH UP WITH THE NAM WHILE THE  GFS CONTINUES
TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN AND BEST CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
ECMWF WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AT
SITES SUCH AS KBKW. OVERALL GUSTY WINDS HAVE SLACKENED...BUT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW END VFR STRATOCU ACROSS N TAF
SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/23/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL









000
FXUS61 KRLX 230532
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 AM EDT THU APR 23 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TAKES CONTROL THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKS
SOUTH OF THE AREA SATURDAY. LOW PRESSURE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
8 PM UPDATE. INSERTED A BRIEF PERIOD OF RAIN/HIGHER ELEVATION SNOW
SHOWERS OVER NORTHERN MOUNTAINS THIS EARLY EVENING PER RADAR.
OTHERWISE...EXPANDED PATCHY FROST FOR A BRIEF PERIOD LATE TONIGHT
OVER SOUTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHEAST KENTUCKY TO BETTER CORRELATE
WITH FROST ADVISORIES TO OUR WEST. HOWEVER...THIS POSSIBLE FROST
EVENT EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF WITH TEMPERATURES MAINLY IN THE MID
30S. RAPID TEMPERATURE RISES AFTER THE SUN RISES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
COLD FRONT EXITING THE MOUNTAINS...WITH POST FRONTAL SHRA
DISSIPATING ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS. SOME SUN ALLOWING TEMPS TO
REBOUND AND DEWPTS TO MIX DOWN WHILE KEEPING WINDS GUSTY. TONIGHT
WILL FEATURE SOME LINGERING STRATOCU AT TIMES ACROSS N ZONES WITH
A SMALL CHANCE OF A SHSN OVER THE N HIGH TERRAIN. FROST/FREEZE
PROGRAM OVER THE LOWLANDS HAS NOW STARTED. THANKFULLY...LINGERING
GRADIENT PUFF AND LARGE DEWPT DEPRESSIONS SHOULD KEEP WIDESPREAD
FROST AT BAY. SOME CONCERN OVER NE KY AND SW VA...CLOSER TO
LIGHTER FLOW. HAVE MENTIONED SOME PATCHY FROST IN THOSE LOCATIONS.
UP N...TEMPS TRICKY REGARDING SUB FRZ. THINK GRADIENT WIND WILL
KEEP NUMBERS ON WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE OVER N ZONES...SO NO
HEADLINES UP THAT WAY.

THURSDAY WILL FEATURE COOL AIR WITH MORE GUSTY WINDS IN THE
AFTERNOON. STRATOCU WILL BE ABUNDANT OVER PORTIONS OF SE OH AND N
THIRD OF WV...WITH MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF SUN S ZONES.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES...AS AN UPPER TROUGH EXITS NORTHEAST...TO
KEEP A DRY AND COLD AIRMASS IN PLACE THURSDAY NIGHT. WINDS SHOULD
BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE OVERNIGHT THURSDAY NIGHT. WITH WIDESPREAD
CLEARING...EXPECT PATCHY FROST ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...MOST PARTS OF
WV AND EXTREME SOUTHWEST VA INTO THE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING HOURS.

SFC HIGH PRESSURE AND MID LEVEL RIDGE BUILD IN BY FRI MORNING...TO
PROVIDE A PLEASANT DAY FRIDAY. MODELS BRING RIPPLES OF VORTICITY
WITH THE MID LEVEL RIDGE AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING BROAD LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVING FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY BY
SUNDAY. MEANWHILE...ON SATURDAY...H850 WINDS TURN FROM THE SOUTH
BRINGING A SURGE OF MOISTURE AND WARM ADVECTION TO THE AREA. A WARM
FRONT COULD LIFT NORTH BRINGING GOOD CHANCES FOR SHOWERS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HALF OF OUR CWA SATURDAY. THEREFORE...KEPT POPS INCREASING
TO HIGH LIKELY SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS.

THE NAM CONTINUES TO BE THE QUICKEST IN ITS QPF FIELD BRINGING THE
BULK OF PCPN ACROSS THE SOUTHERN COAL FIELDS BY 15Z SATURDAY. THE
LATEST ECMWF SEEMS TO CATCH UP WITH THE NAM WHILE THE  GFS CONTINUES
TO BE SLOWER WITH THE ONSET OF PCPN AND BEST CHANCES SATURDAY
EVENING INTO SUNDAY. LEANED TOWARDS A CONSENSUS BETWEEN THE NAM AND
ECMWF WITH A FASTER SOLUTION THROUGH THE PERIOD.

USED BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW WITH FEW TWEAKS FOR TEMPERATURES
THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
HAVE AN UNSETTLED...COOL AND DAMP FORECAST FOR THE EXTENDED WITH A
LOW TRACKING TO THE SOUTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND AND QUICKLY FOLLOWED BY BY A RETROGRADING UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM THROUGH THE NORTHEAST. A BRIEF PERIOD OF QUIET
WEATHER TUESDAY WILL SEPARATE THESE FEATURES. THERE ARE STRONG
SIGNALS FOR TEMPERATURES BELOW NORMAL AREA WIDE UNDER LOW UPPER
LEVEL HEIGHTS...AND CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH EACH SYSTEM. EXPECT
LOWS IN THE 30S AND 40S AND HIGHS IN THE 50S AND 60S THROUGH THE
PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
06Z THURSDAY THRU 06Z FRIDAY...

MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS...ALTHOUGH MVFR CIGS MAY FORM TONIGHT IN THE
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...INCLUDING AT
SITES SUCH AS KBKW. OVERALL GUSTY WINDS HAVE SLACKENED...BUT
OCCASIONAL GUSTS IN THE TEENS CONTINUE...PARTICULARLY ACROSS THE
HIGHER TERRAIN SITES.

GUSTY WINDS WILL PICK UP AGAIN AREA WIDE...PARTICULARLY AFTER
14Z...WITH GUSTS IN THE LOWER 20 KT RANGE ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS...AND IN THE 20 TO 30 KT RANGE HIGHER TERRAIN. VFR CONDITIONS
DOMINATE FOR THURSDAY WITH LOW END VFR STRATOCU ACROSS N TAF
SITES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              THU 04/23/15
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z FRIDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN STRATUS SAT NT INTO SUNDAY MORNING AS RAIN
DIMINISHES.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/30/26
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...SL










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