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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242350
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
750 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
730 pm update. No significant change.

Previous discussion...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.

Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
00Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday...
VFR mostly clear conditions tonight outside of valley fog. Patchy
MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...mainly in deeper valleys
at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...but with a couple hours of IFR
fog possible at KEKN. Any fog will dissipate 12-13Z.

After 13z...VFR ceilings 5000-8000 feet slowly spreading eastward
across the area during the day...with scattered afternoon showers
possible in the west.

Near calm winds tonight...becoming southwest 5 to 8 kts during
Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 05/25/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...JMV/SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 242028
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
428 PM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure with increasing warmth and humidity by Wednesday.
Weak disturbances aloft dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday with
isolated storms. Ridge stronger into the Memorial Day weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
Afternoon cu will dissipate after sunset...with another calm clear
night on tap...with patchy river valley fog mainly in favored
deeper valleys.

Warmer...along with increasing humidity...on Wednesday...as ridge
axis shifts east across the area. Weak upper disturbance in the
flow...in the increasingly humid and unstable atmosphere...may
trigger isold showers or storms during peak heating hours mainly
across the western 2/3 of the CWA...with the bulk of these dying
down with the loss of heating.

Temperatures during the period look to remain above normal.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Forcing associated with series of upper level short wave
trough moving through Wednesday night into Thursday looks less
focused compared with prior runs, with light upper level flow
contributing little to the terms. Thus left pops in the chance
range and even trimmed back a little. Cells may be slow moving in
the high pw air but any problems with water will be localized.

Ridging builds in from the east Thursday night through Friday
night, with very warm and humid air left in place. Have just the
slight chance for late day thunderstorms on Friday.

Temperatures were close to the latest guidance.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Summer like weather is still on tap for the Memorial Day weekend.
Upper level ridging holds into Sunday before drifting off the east
coast. Have just the slight chance for the late day shower or
thunderstorm Saturday, and then a better chance on Sunday as the
ridge begins to drift east.

As the ridge drift offshore, a weak upper level over the Carolinas
this weekend will start meandering to the northwest. This may
actually bring a developing tropical or subtropical feature
inland. Models generally differ with the track and lose the system
under the light upper level flow. Suffice it to say for now that
the forecast gets a bit dirtier early next week, with a better
chance for late day showers and thunderstorms and a non-
negligible chance at night.

Either way, the very warm and humid air remains in place through
the period, and even beyond. The midnight shift coded 90 for
Charleston for Saturday, which may be a touch aggressive, but the
pattern and guidance are close enough to give it a chance.
Overall, not much disparity between ongoing temperatures and
guidance.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Mainly VFR conditions during the period with light surface winds.
Patchy MVFR valley fog...generally after 09z...in deeper mountain
valleys at sites such as KCRW and KEKN...with a couple hours of
IFR fog possible at KEKN Wednesday morning. Any fog will dissipate
after 12-13Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 09Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...SL
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...SL





000
FXUS61 KRLX 241327
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
927 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with
its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft
dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
930 AM update...forecast on track. No changes necessary.

Previous Discussion...
Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid
Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen
the exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft.
Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before
the flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the
cloud cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in
temperatures.

Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with
dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands.
This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures
in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the
middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late
spring/early summer type pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout.  With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
into Saturday.

Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances.  Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft.  Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.

Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.

By Friday...you can forget about looking west.  Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.

Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.

So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /14Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
VFR after the valley fog/mist lifts this morning under generally
westerly winds...less than 10kts. No ceilings expected through the
TAF period...with only FEW 4-5kft clouds expected during heating
hours today.

Dry air remains in place...and warmer temperatures expected today
means less valley fog tonight. Still will have to watch EKN for
IFR or worse visibilities late. Otherwise...brief MVFR to VFR
conditions prevail after 03Z Wednesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR potential in question for EKN after 06Z
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23
EDT 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&



.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...SL/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240841
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
425 AM EDT TUE MAY 24 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
No surface fronts eager to approach. Ridging aloft begins today with
its axis shifting to our east Wednesday. Weak disturbances aloft
dent ridge Wednesday into Thursday. Ridge stronger Friday/Saturday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Upper level low to the east will finally lift out of the mid
Atlantic towards the Canadian Maritimes...and already have seen the
exit of the cloud cover from the counterclockwise flow aloft.
Expecting brief ridging in its place over the Ohio Valley before the
flow turns west southwesterly aloft...but that should keep the cloud
cover to a minimum today and tonight...with an increase in
temperatures.

Not much surface moisture advection to be seen at this point...with
dewpoints still peaking out in the low to mid 50s over the lowlands.
This will help to allow one last night of lowland low temperatures
in the 50s tonight...which will be gradually increasing into the
middle and end of the week as we transition to a more late
spring/early summer type pattern.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Ridging in the mid and upper levels throughout.  With its
axis just to our east...weak disturbances try to dent the ridge
Wednesday into Thursday morning...before rebuilding late Thursday
into Saturday.

Overall...the trend was to lower our already meager pops for showers
and thunderstorms with the weak disturbances.  Was even slower
introducing the 20 and 30 pops from the wsw on Wednesday with the
initial weakening disturbance aloft.  Was not too keen on thunder
chances with that initial disturbance on Wednesday...but kept a
slight chance in the tri state Hts vcnty.

Best chance for showers appears to be our northwest counties
overnight Wednesday night into Thursday...but still...we have
pops no higher than 40 percent at this time.

By Friday...you can forget about looking west.  Main interest will
be drawn to our southeast. The gfs solution was the first to
indicate interesting features off the southeast coast Friday into
Saturday...and it continues to be fairly consistent through its 00z
run. Ecmwf recently has trended wetter there.

Close call for Friday...but better chance on Saturday...for some 90
degree maximum temperatures in the southern and western river
valleys. Considering our recent wet weather and green
vegetation/canopy...we kept the 90 deg maximum temperature at bay on
Friday. A southeast wind flow here may help with a 90 deg maximum
temperature in the southern river valleys on Saturday. That same
flow on Saturday may prevent the southern WV plateau temperature
from rising above that observed on Friday.

So the main theme is the summer preview...good timing for the
holiday weekend.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
Under mainly clear conditions...expecting some valley fog to
develop tonight. Overall...the atmosphere is drier...so think the
extent of the fog will be limited...and the guidance largely shows
this. But have some confidence issues at places like CRW and CKB
tonight...and EKN observations are already bouncing between LIFR
and MVFR.

Fog lifts after 12Z. VFR through 03Z Wednesday. Will need to
assess valley fog potential again tonight...but looks to be less
of an issue as of right now. Surface flow generally westerly less
than 10kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium for the remainder of tonight. High
after 13Z.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development and dissipation may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 05/24/16
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 240028
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
828 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will be in control through mid week. Upper
disturbances will bring back more showers for the later portion of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
8 pm update. Lingered scattered showers over the mountains
through most of the evening hours before dissipating.
Otherwise...no changes.

Previous discussion...Latest radar mosaic shows scattered
showers/storm have developed over the northern West Virginia
mountains. Models suggest these storms will continue into evening
hours...before dissipating before midnight.

With high pressure in control...expect conditions will be quite
favorable for dense valley fog to develop once again tonight...
generally after 04 utc.

The fog and any low clouds that form tonight should dissipate
shortly after sunrise on Tuesday.

GFS suggests there could be some showers and storms across the
northern mountains again Tuesday afternoon...while NAM suggests
dry conditions. Have decided to keep forecast dry for now.

Temperature guidance is relatively close and is similar to
previously forecasted lows for tonight and highs on Tuesday. So
only minor tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
Period begins with upper ridge crossing in the wake of an upper
level low pulling away from the New ENgland coast. This spells dry
weather with not much cloud Tuesday night into Wednesday.

Once the ridge axis passes Wednesday, weak upper level disturbances
in the west to southwest flow in its wake, and increasing warmth
moisture in low level south to southwest flow, will lead to an
increase in cloudiness, and the shower thunderstorm possibility
from the west, by late in the day on Wednesday.

The it appears the crescendo of this will be a pair of warm
fronts and trough axes that cross late Wednesday night into
Thursday. This should give rise to the greatest precipitation
coverage of the period Thursday morning, not a diurnally favored
time for thunderstorms. In the wake of these systems, it appears
deep layer wind shear will be weak but CAPE could exceed a KJ/KG
into the middle Ohio valley by late Thursday to support scattered
thunderstorms.

Showers and thunderstorms will diminish Thursday night with loss
of heating, and weak upper level ridging rebuilding into the area.

Raised highs a little per latest guidance while lows appeared to
be largely in line.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The Memorial Day weekend will feature summer like weather,
especially in comparison with the weather of late. Upper level
ridging continues to build during the beginning of the period, and
then breaks down a bit near the end of the period. The area
remains in what will have become a very warm and humid air mass by
then, and the forecast portrays afternoon and evening showers and
thunderstorms throughout, only a slight chance Friday and
Saturday given the ridging, and then a chance Sunday and Monday
given the breaking down of the ridge.

The GFS actually seems to portray a tropical, or at least
subtropical, system coming our way early next week from the
coastal Carolinas.

Temperatures looked reasonable in this summer pattern in light of
the latest guidance, save for some upward adjustments on highs.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
00Z Tuesday thru 00Z Wednesday...
Widely scattered showers over northeast WV will dissipate by 03z.
Otherwise...generally vfr mostly clear thru the period outside of
IFR/LIFR in river valley radiation fog 07z to 13z...affecting all
the major TAF terminals except BKW. Near calm winds
tonight...becoming southwest 5 to 8 kts during Tuesday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Timing of fog development and dissipation may
vary.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 05/24/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR in river valley fog possible Wednesday morning...in
showers/storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning and widespread
fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...TRM
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231740
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
140 PM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Surface high pressure will generally be in control into the weekend.
Marginal moisture/instability may produce showers/storms...mainly
during the afternoon/evening starting late Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Latest radar mosaic shows scattered showers/storm have developed
over the northern West Virginia mountains. Models suggest these
storms will continue into evening hours...before dissipating
before midnight.

With high pressure in control...expect conditions will be quite
favorable for dense valley fog to develop once again tonight...
generally after 04 utc.

The fog and any low clouds that form tonight should dissipate
shortly after sunrise on Tuesday.

GFS suggests there could be some showers and storms across the
northern mountains again Tuesday afternoon...while NAM suggests
dry conditions. Have decided to keep forecast dry for now.

Temperature guidance is relatively close and is similar to
previously forecasted lows for tonight and highs on Tuesday. So
only minor tweaks made.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The transition to a warmer environment starts on Tuesday.  Despite
the weak wind flow and poor mixing...the strong May sunshine should
counteract the lack of mixing to boost temperatures.

In the weak wind flow...and before dew points increase...tried to
stay on the low side of mos temperature guidance for Tuesday
night minimum temperatures...especially in the mountain valleys.

No surface front in sight. Moisture tries to increase and weak
disturbance approaching from the west...denting the 500 mb ridge...
will keep just the minimum chance pops Wednesday afternoon and
night...as model sounding showing some limited instability. For
example...00z gfs shows about 500 cape vcnty Hts late Wed...and
about 1000 Thursday...but flow remains weak.

Those weak 500 mb disturbance pass late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning...so kept pops through the night for our western
and northern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Showers and storms with MVFR/Isold IFR conditions have developed
over the northern West Virginia mountains...with the coverage
expected to develop southward along the mountain counties. Have
VCTS/CB at BKW/CKB into the evening hours with MVFR conditions in
TSRA indicated at EKN.

After 00 UTC...expect storm chances will wane with vfr conditions
expected at most locations. Valley fog is once again expected
tonight with conditions to deteriorate rapidly after 04Z with
IFR/LIFR in many valley locations...especially across West
Virginia.

Expect fog and low clouds will dissipate shortly after 12
UTC...with vfr conditions expected over the entire region by 16
UTC.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog
timing tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR in river valley fog possible Wednesday morning...in
showers/storms late Wednesday into Thursday morning and widespread
fog Friday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JSH/TRM
NEAR TERM...JSH
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JSH





000
FXUS61 KRLX 231518
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1118 AM EDT MON MAY 23 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Disturbance aloft drifts off Virginia coast today. High pressure
takes control for Tuesday/Wednesday. No fronts nearing.  Marginal
moisture/instability may produce showers/storms late Wednesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Fog has burned off and much of the low clouds have either burned
off or lifted. Have made some tweaks to sky conditions to reflect
this trend. In addition...have made some tweaks to PoPs/Wx to
reflect latest short-term guidance.

Current forecasted Max Temps are generally higher than any of the
guidance. Plan to generally leave these temps untouched for now.

Previous discussion...
As the upper level low over the mid Atlantic/Carolina coast
continues a slow drift east before its turn to the north...the reach
of energy aloft to induce convection will shrink over the western
half of the CWA. Confine POPS to west/south of the Ohio River for
the most part...and will see showers and storms rotate through in a
general north to south fashion...similar to yesterday. Areas of
north central WV have lower flash flood guidance values given the
recent rain in these area...down to around an inch and a quarter in
a three hour period. This bears watching...but expect a scattered
nature to the convection today...which should limit issues in these
wetter areas.

Will see better clearing tonight with the exit of the upper level
low and surface high pressure settling in...with some development of
fog possible in the valleys...especially for the valleys of the
higher elevations. No major changes to the temperatures today or
tonight...with gradual warming taking place heading into the short
term forecast period.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
The transition to a warmer environment starts on Tuesday.  Despite
the weak wind flow and poor mixing...the strong May sunshine should
counteract the lack of mixing to boost temperatures.

In the weak wind flow...and before dew points increase...tried to
stay on the low side of mos temperature guidance for Tuesday
night minimum temperatures...especially in the mountain valleys.

No surface front in sight. Moisture tries to increase and weak
disturbance approaching from the west...denting the 500 mb ridge...
will keep just the minimum chance pops Wednesday afternoon and
night...as model sounding showing some limited instability. For
example...00z gfs shows about 500 cape vcnty Hts late Wed...and
about 1000 Thursday...but flow remains weak.

Those weak 500 mb disturbance pass late Wednesday night into
Thursday morning...so kept pops through the night for our western
and northern counties.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Fog to lift gradually this morning. Ceilings over the mountains
may take until 15Z to reach VFR.

Convection to fire from CRW to CKB and to the east after 17Z
today. Cover this with VCTS/CB in a short window after 19Z when
coverage should be nearing its peak for the day. Further to the
west at PKB and HTS...VFR with only FEW-SCT cumulus expected.

Valley fog expected tonight in clearing. Conditions to deteriorate
rapidly after 04Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: May need brief IFR in prevailing TSRA. Fog
timing tonight may vary from forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/26
NEAR TERM...JSH/26
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...26





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230113
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
913 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday.
High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into
Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
830 pm update. Lingered showers a few more hours early tonight...
especially east of the Ohio River.

Previous discussion...
Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of
the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and
early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75
inch...so showers should not be very heavy.

Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight
across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low.

May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere.
Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these
will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as
upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure
building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as
ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm
tropical air mass overhead. Although...moisture will be on the
increase on...with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s
by the afternoon...it appears that showers and thunderstorms may
hold off. For now I went with a model consensus and bring slight
chance to low chance PoP into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday
afternoon. However...the greater influx of moisture will take
place during the long term period starting on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /01Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
00z Monday thru 00z Tuesday...
Upper level low will slowly drop southeast thru the Mid Atlantic
States tonight...to just off the North Carolina coast by Monday
afternoon. Its broad circulation will slowly release its grip on
the area. Look for widely scattered showers in the west to end
this evening...and more numerous showers in the east to mostly end
after midnight. Look for scattered mainly afternoon showers mostly
in the mountains monday afternoon.

Thru 04z...VFR outside of lingering showers. After 05z...expect
more river valley fog tonight than last night...as clouds decrease
winds become very light to near calm...and earlier rains keep the
ground saturated. thus...expect some fog to develop at the major
terminals...with ifr at crw...ekn...pkb mainly 06z-12z.

After 12z...becoming vfr sct-bkn clouds abv 4000 feet outside
mountains by 14z...and vfr ceilings in mountains by 17z with just
a few rain showers redeveloping. north winds 5 to 10 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: low on fog tonight...depends on clouds and
how quickly winds decouple. otherwise...medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread dense fog if clearing and
calm winds occur sooner.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/23/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...JMV/JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 230025
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
825 PM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level low lingers around the mid Atlantic states into Monday.
High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys later Monday into
Tuesday. Warmer for mid and late week with showers and thunderstorms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
Upper low moving overhead today sliding down the eastern side of
the Appalachians providing instability for some afternoon and
early evening showers and tstorms. Precipitable water around 0.75
inch...so showers should not be very heavy.

Showers on the retreat overnight but some chance remains overnight
across the mountain counties closer to the upper level low.

May see some patchy fog overnight with saturated lower atmosphere.
Monday afternoon may see another round of showers, but think these
will be even more widely scattered than this afternoons round as
upper level forcing moves off to the east and CAPE minimizes.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
Not too much going on in the short term with high pressure
building into the region. Temperatures will start to rise as
ridging and southwesterly return flow starts to bring warm
tropical air mass overhead. Although...moisture will be on the
increase on...with dew points starting to climb into the low 60s
by the afternoon...it appears that showers and thunderstorms may
hold off. For now I went with a model consensus and bring slight
chance to low chance PoP into the Ohio Valley by late Wednesday
afternoon. However...the greater influx of moisture will take
place during the long term period starting on Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
Get ready for summer! Bermuda High to our Southeast will bring
warm tropical air into the region with southwesterly return flow
off the Gulf pumping northward across the Eastern U.S.
Temperatures will soar into the upper 80s by the end of the week
with Dew Points possibly getting close 70F. Diurnal showers and
thunderstorms will be possible each day...as we maximize daytime
heating in the afternoon hours. Flow aloft will be weak with high
Cape values...so pulse air mass storms could bring localized heavy
rainfall. With already moist ground in place...any storms that can
develop over more flash flood prone areas will have to be
monitored closely.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
Upper level low will slowly drop southeast thru the Mid Atlantic
States tonight...to just off the North Carolina coast by Monday
afternoon. Its broad circulation will slowly release its grip on
the area. Look for widely scattered showers in the west to end
this evening...and more numerous showers in the east to mostly end
after midnight. Look for scattered mainly afternoon showers mostly
in the mountains monday afternoon.

Thru 04z...VFR outside of lingering showers. After 05z...expect
more river valley fog tonight than last night...as clouds decrease
...winds become very light to near calm...and earlier rains keep
the ground saturated. thus...expect some fog to develop at the
major terminals...with ifr at crw...ekn...pkb mainly 06z-12z.

After 12z...becoming vfr sct-bkn clouds abv 4000 feet outside
mountains by 14z...and vfr ceilings in mountains by 17z with just
a few rain showers redeveloping. north winds 5 to 10 kts.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: low on fog tonight...depends on clouds and
how quickly winds decouple. otherwise...medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: More widespread dense fog if clearing and
calm winds occur sooner.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 05/23/16
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MPK
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JMV





000
FXUS61 KRLX 220753
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
345 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and upper level low drops southeast and lingers in mid Atlantic
states into Monday night. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
Monday into Tuesday.  Warmer for mid and late week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
At the lovely hour of 07z...mid level circulation around kduj in Pa
with weak lobe of vorticity swinging through nrn Wv panhandle toward
the nrn Wv mtns. Clearing moved into the Oh Vly counties and should
reach Grundy Va shortly.  A hour or two earlier on this graveyard
shift...thought predawn valley fog would form in southeast Ohio to
Hts vcnty...but my confidence is lowering at 07z.

Difficult to figure how much clearing occurs before the early May
sunrise in the I-79 corridor.  In any case...the mixing today will
lift the clouds.  We will have to look out the north window
today...then toward the northeast tonight...as the steering flow
veers from northwest early today...becoming northeast tonight.  This
is in response to the mid level circulation dropping se into
northern Virginia by 00z Monday...then to the Nc/Va coast by 12z
Monday.

With the drier air in the Oh River counties...only mentioned a 20/30
percent chance of a mid to late afternoon shower. Highest pops for
that time frame remain over our central Wv mountain counties back
west to around Sutton...Glenville...and West Union.  Will continue
to mention a small chance of a thunderstorm in Wv.

Precipitable water around 0.75 inch...so thinking the showers will
not be as heavy as the local showers on Saturday afternoon and
evening.  The wettest area the past 48 hours has been our central
mountains including the headwaters of the Elk...Gauley...West
Fork...Little Kanawha...Buckhannon...and Tygart Valley.  Our 88d
storm total rain estimate was reset to zero around 0730z.

A waning chance of showers remain overnight across the mountain
counties.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
The short term forecast sees the slow filling of the closed upper
low over the Carolina/mid Atlantic coastal area...and a slow drift
and continued weakening into the Maritimes of Canada by mid week.
This marks the beginning of high pressure gaining control of the CWA
and finally eliminating chances for showers and thunderstorms that
linger with the upper low to the east.

There will be a trend of heights increasing...as the surface high
begins its push off the east coast and takes its place as a Bermuda
High...with ridging over the Appalachians heading into the extended
forecast. Through mid week...this means a continued slow
warming...and largely dry weather until moisture and instability
increase into the end of the week.

Overall grid changes are modest. Bring the pops a bit further west
on Monday...and mostly cosmetic changes to the temperatures through
the short term.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The dry weather we get on Tuesday will be short-lived as upper
ridge breaks down and is replaced with zonal flow aloft. This
pattern is looking very summer-like as we end up on the edge of
the Bermuda High. Southwesterly flow will push warm and moist air
from the Gulf of Mexico into the region...and dew points may
approach 70F by the end of the work week. There will be a threat
for showers and thunderstorms each day from mid week to the
weekend in the moist airmass as we maximize daytime heating in the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Kept confidence at low.  Tough to figure ceilings and fog through
12z this morning.

Drier air and clearing moving into mid Ohio Valley around Pkb to Hts
near 06z.  Confidence low on how far east the partial clearing
progresses 06z to 12z..as flow begins to veer toward north.

Will try to form some diurnal fog in southeast Ohio and the Pkb to
Hts vcnty for the 06z to 12z time frame with local ifr.

Further east...the stratus was trying to lift ckb to crw at 06z.
Will hold onto more clouds and less fog development...but confidence
low.

A mid level circulation drops southeast out of Pennsylvania toward
northern Virginia after 21z today.  In respond...shower coverage
should increase between 15z to 18z vcnty ckb to ekn...then reach crw
to bkw vcnty after 20z.

Drier dew points and mixing should lift ceilings today. So after
15z...have mostly 4 to 6 thsd ft bkn ceilings...except over
mountains with 2 to 3 thsd ft. An isolated thunderstorm may develop
over West Virginia after 18z thru 00z Monday.

Scattered showers linger ekn-bkw after 00z to 06z as flow veers more
toward the northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level flow above boundary layer may prevent
thicker fog in Pkb to Hts for the predawn hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/22/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KTB/30





000
FXUS61 KRLX 220600
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
146 AM EDT SUN MAY 22 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Mid and upper level low drops southeast and lingers in mid Atlantic
states into Monday night. High pressure over Ohio/Tennessee Valleys
Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...

Made some tweaks to the overnight sky grids given current trends.
Thinking some clearing will work into SE OH/NE KY/SW WV overnight.
Tough to figure fog potential in areas that clear...but given a 20
kt wind just off the deck...think fog would be confined to more
protected valleys.

745 PM UPDATE...

Cold front pushing east thru the mountains as of 00z. This should
take the bulk of the shra with it. However cannot rule out a stray
shra or two this evening until the final s/w trof axis crosses
after midnight.

Still thinking low stratus will be the rule overnight...generally
from CRW/CKB on east. Some clearing may try to work into SE OH/NE
KY/W WV late with more of a fog threat in the valleys. The low
level flow may prevent dense fog formation on the hills.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW...

Numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms have popped up this
afternoon in response to an upper level short wave trough digging
inn from the northwest, and low level cyclonic convergent flow
with the remnants of a surface low pressure system over the area.
Beneath the upper level trough, a surface front was pushing
southward into the middle ohio valley, with gusty winds and a more
solid stratus deck in its wake.

The surface low and cold front will collapse southeastward through
the area through this evening, as the upper level short wave
trough continues slowly digging in. It will close off into an
upper level low Sunday that will then drift southward through the
central appalachians.

The showers were producing heavy downpours but were also on the
move, and will dissipate tonight with the loss of heating; they
are most likely to persist in the mountains. Otherwise the
stratus will fill back in, especially as the front passes.

Sunday will bring mixing, which will break up much of the fog and
stratus in the morning, but result in a repeat of pop up showers
and thunderstorms, especially over the mountains under the upper
level low. With lower freezing and -20c levels, instead small
hail for Sunday afternoon thunderstorms, with gusty winds also
possible. We should also be able to mix 20 kt gusts to the surface
outside showers and storms.

No major changes to temperatures in light of the latest guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Influence of upper level low will continue through the first 24 to
36 hours of the short term period. Showers can be expected across
the Eastern Mountains in West Virginia and with cold temps aloft
and weak instability...an isolated thunderstorm or two will also
be possible monday afternoon in the Northern Mountains. Upper
level low finally drifts northeast on Tuesday and upper ridge
moves overhead making for a great weather day.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/...
The dry weather we get on Tuesday will be short-lived as upper
ridge breaks down and is replaced with zonal flow aloft. This
pattern is looking very summer-like as we end up on the edge of
the Bermuda High. Southwesterly flow will push warm and moist air
from the Gulf of Mexico into the region...and dew points may
approach 70F by the end of the work week. There will be a threat
for showers and thunderstorms each day from mid week to the
weekend in the moist airmass as we maximize daytime heating in the
afternoon hours.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Kept confidence at low.  Tough to figure ceilings and fog through
12z this morning.

Drier air and clearing moving into mid Ohio Valley around Pkb to Hts
near 06z.  Confidence low on how far east the partial clearing
progresses 06z to 12z..as flow begins to veer toward north.

Will try to form some diurnal fog in southeast Ohio and the Pkb to
Hts vcnty for the 06z to 12z time frame with local ifr.

Further east...the stratus was trying to lift ckb to crw at 06z.
Will hold onto more clouds and less fog development...but confidence
low.

A mid level circulation drops southeast out of Pennsylvania toward
northern Virginia after 21z today.  In respond...shower coverage
should increase between 15z to 18z vcnty ckb to ekn...then reach crw
to bkw vcnty after 20z.

Drier dew points and mixing should lift ceilings today. So after
15z...have mostly 4 to 6 thsd ft bkn ceilings...except over
mountains with 2 to 3 thsd ft. An isolated thunderstorm may develop
over West Virginia after 18z thru 00z Monday.

Scattered showers linger ekn-bkw after 00z to 06z as flow veers more
toward the northeast.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Low level flow above boundary layer may prevent
thicker fog in Pkb to Hts for the predawn hours.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              SUN 05/22/16
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
IFR in fog possible late Monday night into Tuesday morning.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...KTB/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/30
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...KTB/30





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