Home > Products > Valid Products > AFD

000
FXUS61 KRLX 220743
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
343 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/...
GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A SHORTWAVE UNDER NORTHWEST FLOW AT
H500 BRINGING A VORTICITY MAXIMA EARLY FRIDAY. THIS FEATURE COULD
BRING CLOUDS AND A LOW CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY
NIGHT. ALTHOUGH MODELS DONT BRING MUCH IN QPF FIELDS...THE SREF
BRINGS POPS UP TO 20 PERCENT OF RAIN. THEREFORE...EXPECT A BRIEF
PERIOD OF RAIN SHOWERS AT THIS TIME ON FRIDAY. AS THE TIME
APPROACHES...MORE CONFIDENCE CAN BE GAINED ON THIS FEATURE.
CONDITIONS IMPROVE LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY.

WEATHER WILL CONTINUE WITH COOL NIGHTS AND MILD AFTERNOON THROUGH
THE PERIOD. WENT GENERALLY WITH THE BIAS CORRECTED CONSENSUS RAW
GUIDANCE.


&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TODAY.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220740
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
340 AM EDT WED OCT 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF
SHOWERS TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY AND
LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THE NEXT SYSTEM COULD BE TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND
THE SHORT RANGE MODELS ARE ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT. THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW IS CENTERED AROUND VIRGINIA AND SHORT WAVES ARE ROTATING
AROUND THE LOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. SHOWERS/LIGHT SPRINKLES
ARE MOVING THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA IN ASSOCIATED WITH THE SHORT
WAVES. AS THE LOW MEANDERS EAST TODAY AND TONIGHT IT WILL BE COOL
AND CLOUDY. POPS BEGIN TO CLEAR FROM WEST TO EAST THIS MORNING.

THE MODEL SOUNDINGS REALLY DON/T SUPPORT FROZEN PRECIPITATION
TONIGHT. IF ANYTHING FROZEN WERE TO FALL IT WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...


THE UPPER LEVEL LOW THAT IS JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL
CAUSE MVFR TO IFR CLOUDS ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH TODAY. MOISTURE
WILL LINGER ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND LIGHT SHOWERS WILL BE AROUND
TERMINALS.  CONDITIONS BEGIN TO IMPROVE TO VFR FROM WEST TO EAST
STARTING AFTER 19Z. KCKB...KEKN...KBKW WILL REMAIN MVFR THROUGH
TODAY.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND LOCATIONS OF SHOWERS AND
ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS COULD VARY.  CIG HGTS COULD VARY EVEN
OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 220230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 220230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT PASSES LATE SATURDAY. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 220011
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
811 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST THURSDAY.
A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE OVER THE WEEKEND. HIGH PRESSURE RETURNS SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS OVERNIGHT ESPECIALLY IN THE MOUNTAINS...BUT ALSO FOCUSED
ON THE MORE ORGANIZED AREA OF SHOWERS BACK INTO CENTRAL WV THIS
EVENING.  ADJUSTED EVENING TEMPERATURES AND DEW POINTS PER CURRENT
TRENDS...WHICH RESULT IN SMALLER DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS.  FCST
OTHERWISE ON TRACK.

PREV DISCN...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
THE AREA REMAINS IN DEEP...MOIST N TO NW FLOW AROUND AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW THAT MOVES FROM NRN WV TO JUST OFF THE DELMARVA PENINSULA OVER
THE NEXT 24 HRS.  THIS WILL KEEP LOTS OF CLOUDS IN PLACE.  SHOWERS
IN THE MOUNTAINS AND BACK ACROSS CENTRAL WV AT THE START OF THE
PERIOD WILL BECOME INCREASINGLY CONFINED TO THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT
AND WED.  MVFR TO IFR VSBY WITH THESE SHOWERS WILL BECOME LESS
COMMON OVERNIGHT THROUGH WED.  THE SHOWERS WILL BECOME MORE WIDELY
SCATTERED EVEN IN THE MOUNTAINS WED AFTERNOON.

CIGS ASSOCIATED WITH THE CLOUDS WILL BE PRIMARILY MVFR
OVERNIGHT...WITH IFR AT TIMES IN THE MOUNTAINS.  IFR CIGS ARE ALSO
POSSIBLE IN ANY SHOWER.  MVFR / IFR CIGS WILL BECOME LESS COMMON
WED...WITH CIGS IMPROVING TO VFR ACROSS MUCH OF THE LOWLANDS WED
AFTERNOON.  CLEARING FROM THE W WILL REACH NEAR THE OHIO RIVER LATE
WED.

SFC FLOW WILL CONTINUE LIGHT NW WHILE FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO
MODERATE N.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY...ESPECIALLY AT NT WITH BRIEF POST RAIN FOG.  CIG HGTS
COULD VARY EVEN OUTSIDE OF THE SHOWERS.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 10/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO
EARLY THURSDAY...AND IN VALLEY FOG EARLY THURSDAY MORNING ESPECIALLY
WHERE IT CLEARS.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 211836
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
236 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE WEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH THE UPPER LEVEL LOW TROUGH DRIFTING OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST
AND SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES FROM THE WEST COMING INTO
PLAY...THE SHORT TERM FORECAST WILL SEE A SLOW CLEARING THROUGH
THURSDAY NIGHT BEFORE THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM BARRELS IN FRIDAY.

LOOKING AT THE LOWEST LEVELS REVEALS A GOOD TRAJECTORY FOR UPSLOPING
PRECIPITATION...AN EXTENSION FROM THE NEAR TERM FORECAST...FOR THE
NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. GOOD STREAMLINES AND THE RESULTANT HIGH
HUMIDITIES IN THE 1000-850MB LAYER LENDS WEIGHT TO THIS.
HOWEVER...WILL BE WARM ADVECTING OFF THE SURFACE...SO THIS WOULD
LIKELY BE DETRIMENTAL TO PRECIPITATION FORMATION. WITH COMPETING
FORCES AT WORK...WILL LEAVE THE SHOWERS AT LOW END CHANCE INSTEAD OF
BUMPING THEM UP INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY OR HIGHER. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BECOME TRAPPED UNDER
AN INVERSION...SO LEAVING THEM IN THROUGH THURSDAY LOOKS TO BE THE
WAY TO GO. MAY NEED TO ALTER THIS IN UPCOMING FORECASTS AS DRIZZLE
MAY END UP BEING A BETTER OPTION. FOR NOW...LOW STRATUS AND DAMP IS
A GOOD BET FOR PLACES IN THE TYGART VALLEY.

THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL EVENTUALLY ERODE THURSDAY NIGHT.
THEN...EXPECTING THE NEXT UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AXIS TO PUSH FROM THE
NORTHWEST FOR FRIDAY. IT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A SURFACE
TROUGH...BUT INDICATIONS NOW ARE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL BE MOISTURE
STARVED. PREFERRED THE SREF PROBABILITIES OF MEASURED PRECIPITATION
FROM THIS ISSUANCE AND STICK TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR NOW.

USED THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FRIDAY WITH THE CLOUDS MOVING BACK
IN AND LOSING A COUPLE DEGREES AT THE 850MB LEVEL.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211808
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
208 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES NECESSARY TO THE LONG TERM GRIDS. A FEW WEAK
SHORTWAVES WILL CROSS THE AREA EARLY IN THE PERIOD. MOISTURE STILL
APPEARS TO BE LIMITED...SO HAVE CONTINUED TO MAINTAIN A DRY FORECAST
AT THIS TIME. UPPER RIDGE THEN BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA OVER THE
WEEKEND AND INTO NEXT WEEK...WITH CONTINUED DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS.
A COLD FRONT APPROACHES TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...CREATING A CHANCE
FOR SHOWERS...AND LEADING TO A DROP IN TEMPERATURES FOR WEDNESDAY
INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE A CHANCE OF SHOWERS
INTO WEDNESDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST
THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW AND COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL KEEP A STRATUS DECK OVER
THE REGION INTO WEDNESDAY. SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST LIKELY THIS
AFTERNOON DUE TO MAXIMUM LOW LEVEL INSTABILITY...BUT WITH COLD AIR
ADVECTION CONTINUING TONIGHT...SOME SHOWERS REMAIN A POSSIBILITY. BY
WEDNESDAY...SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION BEGINS WHICH WILL LIMIT SHOWER
POSSIBILITIES CONSIDERABLY. STILL ENOUGH MOISTURE IN THE NORTHEAST
THAT AFTERNOON INSTABILITIES MIGHT FIRE A FEW SHOWERS.

WITH A STRATUS DECK OVER THE REGION TONIGHT...WILL GO ON THE WARMER
SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
NORTHWEST FLOW BEHIND A COLD FRONT WILL COMBINE WITH AN UPPER LEVEL
LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO PROVIDE AN MVFR STRATUS DECK INTO WEDNESDAY.
THESE SYSTEMS WILL PRODUCE NUMEROUS SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON...WITH
SOME BRIEF IFR RESTRICTIONS. SHOWERS WILL BECOME LIGHTER AND MORE
SCATTERED OVERNIGHT. WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CLOUD DECK
WILL BECOME MORE OF A CUMULUS DECK DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND ASSOCIATED RESTRICTIONS
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLE IN THE MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY
THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 211035
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
635 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT IS MOVING ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND MVFR CIGS WILL
PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE FOR A FEW HOURS BUT
EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR CIGS ONCE AGAIN.
THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM 19-22Z BUT WILL
ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY AROUND THROUGH
TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB SHOULD GO DOWN TO IFR AFTER O6Z.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES. NW WINDS OVERNIGHT LESS THAN 5 KTS.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. TIMING OF IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND THE
POSSIBILITY TI COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    L    H    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    H    L    L    L    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
353 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE
SOUTHWEST THURSDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
WITH STUBBORN UPPER LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FINALLY MOVING OVER THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY...COLD NORTHERLY FLOW WILL PREVAIL
AT THE SFC THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...WHILE BACKING FROM THE
NORTHWEST ALOFT BY THURSDAY. THE UPPER LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE
ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTHWEST TO PROVIDE PLENTY OF
CLEAR SKIES WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT...EXCEPT OVER
THE NORTHEASTERN MOUNTAINS. UNDER NORTHERLY WIND
COMPONENT...TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN IN THE COLD SIDE THROUGH THE
PERIOD...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

MODELS SUGGEST THE COLDEST H850 TEMPERATURES...A POCKET OF
FREEZING AIR MASS...WILL MOVE SOUTH ACROSS SOUTHEAST OH...AWAY
FROM LINGERING PCPN OVER THE NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS KEEPING PCPN TYPE
LIQUID WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY.


PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. DECREASE A DEGREE OR TWO FOR
HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY PER DEEP NORTHERLY FLOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    M    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L    L    H

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB










000
FXUS61 KRLX 210732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
332 AM EDT TUE OCT 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES TODAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON
FRIDAY. A WEAK FRONT POSSIBLE FOR THE WEEKEND.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/
AT 06Z THE COLD FRONT IS JUST ABOUT INTO OUR FORECAST AREA AND
WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE MORNING HOURS. THERE ARE
ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE FRONT. BY 16Z ACCORDING
TO THE HRRR EXPECT THE SHOWERS TO BECOME MORE NUMEROUS. THESE
SHOWERS WILL BE ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER LEVEL IMPULSE. MODELS ARE
IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO AND EVEN INDICATE THERE
COULD BE A FEW ISOLATED RUMBLES OF THUNDER LATE THIS AFTERNOON.
THE BEST LOCATION FOR THUNDER WILL BE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS.

HAVE GONE ON THE LOWER SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR TEMPERATURES TODAY AND
TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
COLD FRONT WILL RACE ACROSS THE AREA TODAY AND WILL HAVE ISOLATED
SHOWERS. MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST THROUGH 13-14Z. CIGS WILL IMPROVE
FOR A FEW HOURS BUT EXPECT AN INCREASE IN SHOWERS BY 16Z AND MVFR
CIGS ONCE AGAIN. THERE COULD BE SOME ISOLATED -TSRA AREA WIDE FROM
19-22Z BUT WILL ONLY INCLUDE AT KPKB AND KEKN. MVFR CIGS WILL STAY
AROUND THROUGH TONIGHT. KPKB...KEKN...KCKB COULD BE IFR AFTER O6Z
ON THE 22ND.

W/NW WINDS LESS THAN 10KT EXPECTED THROUGH TODAY WITH HIGHER
GUSTS ALONG THE RIDGES.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z
WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND HOW LONG MVFR CONDITIONS COULD
LAST THIS MORNING. IFR CONDITIONS COULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD
OVERNIGHT TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS POSSIBLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...FB
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...FB









000
FXUS61 KRLX 210231
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDER HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER BENEATH TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER.  OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL
WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE.  RAISED POPS IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE N.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR
VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE.  SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SWD INTO THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A
BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH
BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM











000
FXUS61 KRLX 210231
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1031 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
1000 PM UPDATE...
ISOLATED THUNDER HOLDING ON A LITTLE LONGER BENEATH TROUGH AXIS
APPROACHING THE OHIO RIVER.  OTHERWISE FCST ON TRACK.

800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL
WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE.  RAISED POPS IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE N.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR
VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE.  SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SWD INTO THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A
BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH
BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM












000
FXUS61 KRLX 210006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL
WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE.  RAISED POPS IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE N.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR
VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE.  SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SWD INTO THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A
BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH
BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 210006
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
806 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE OVERNIGHT INTO TUESDAY MORNING.  LOW
PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY.
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.  WEAK WEEKEND FRONT POSSIBLE.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
800 PM UPDATE...
RAISED POPS AS PRECIPITATION FILLED IN BETWEEN COMMA HEAD AND TAIL
WITH VORT MAX OVER MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS EVENING.  ALSO ACCOUNTED
FOR THUNDER FAR INTERIOR SE OHIO BENEATH VORT LOBE.  RAISED POPS IN
INCREASINGLY UNSTABLE AFTERNOON AIR WITH UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
INTO THE AREA FROM THE N.

PREV DISCN...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
SHOWERS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT APPROACHING FROM THE W WILL BRING MVFR
VSBY AT TIMES MAINLY NRN SITES BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  OTHERWISE MVFR CIGS
AT TIMES OVERNIGHT...WILL BECOME MORE PERSISTENT IN THE MOUNTAINS
DURING THE DAY TUE...AFTER THE COLD FRONT PASSES TUE MORNING.  MVFR
CIGS AT TIMES LOWLANDS TUE.  SHOWERS WILL DOT MUCH OF THE AREA TUE
AFTERNOON IN THE UNSTABLE AIR BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW DROPPING
SWD INTO THE AREA.  THESE SHOWERS SHOULD BE MOST NUMEROUS ACROSS
NORTHERN WV...AND IN THE MOUNTAINS.

LIGHT SW SFC FLOW OVERNIGHT WILL BECOME W BEHIND THE FRONT TUE...A
BIT GUSTY ON THE RIDGES.  MODERATE SW FLOW ALOFT OVERNIGHT WILL
BECOME LIGHT TO MODERATE W BY TUE MORNING...AND LIGHT TO MODERATE NW
BEHIND THE FRONT ALOFT BY TUE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF MVFR CONDITIONS COULD VARY...WITH
BRIEF IFR NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION LATE OVERNIGHT AND TUE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            TUE 10/21/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    M    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z WEDNESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY AND POSSIBLY AGAIN
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30/TRM
NEAR TERM...TRM/RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 201859
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201859
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
259 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER LOW WILL PIVOT DOWN INTO THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT AND TO THE
MID ATLANTIC COAST ON WEDNESDAY. THIS SPELLS FOR A RATHER CHILLY
WX REGIME WITH A CLOUDY SKY AND SOME SHOWERS TO BOOT. THE UPPER
LOW WILL THEN PIVOT NE ALONG THE NORTHEAST COAST ON THURSDAY. AS
SUCH...THE INFLUENCE OF THIS SYSTEM WILL LESS SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS
THE AREA. SUNSHINE SHOULD RETURN FOR MOST...EXCEPT IN THE N
MOUNTAINS AND ADJACENT LOWLAND COUNTIES WHERE CLOUDS WILL LINGER
AS A LINGERING INFLUENCE FROM THE UPPER LOW MAY BE REALIZED.

FOR TEMPS...TRIED TO UNDERCUT GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS ON WEDNESDAY
KEEPING MOST LOWLAND ZONES IN THE LOW 50S AND 40S IN THE THE HIGH
TERRAIN. STILL COULD BE SOME FROST ACROSS NE KY AND SE OH
WEDNESDAY NIGHT...ASSUMING THE CLOUDS WILL BREAK IN TIME.
THUS...HAVE COOLEST READINGS ACROSS THOSE AREAS. IMPROVEMENT IN
THE TEMPS WILL BE FELT ON THURSDAY DUE TO SUNSHINE...BUT STILL
CHILLY ACROSS N WV WHERE CLOUDS MAY LINGER.

AS FOR PRECIP TYPE WEDNESDAY NIGHT...H85 TEMPS TRY TO GO BELOW 0C
BUT SOUNDINGS DO NOT SUPPORT ICE CRYSTALS FOR SNOW. SO KEPT THINGS
LIQUID IN THE HIGHEST ELEVATIONS FOR NOW.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/SL/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201832
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
232 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
OVERALL...DECENT MODEL AGREEMENT IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD. PERIOD
STARTS OUT WITH A CLOSED LOW OFF TO THE NORTHEAST/CENTERED ALONG THE
NEW ENGLAND COAST...WITH A FEW CLOUDS...MAINLY ACROSS THE
NORTHEASTERN ZONES CLOSER TO VICINITY OF THE LOW. SEASONABLE...BUT
DRY CONDITIONS ACROSS THE CWA WITH A W/NW FLOW.

A WEAK SHORTWAVE WILL DROP SOUTHEAST FRIDAY NIGHT AND
SATURDAY...FOLLOWED BY AN ADDITIONAL SHORTWAVE LATER SATURDAY.
MOISTURE IS LIMITED WITH EACH OF THESE FEATURES...AND EXPECTING
MOSTLY JUST AN INCREASE IN CLOUD COVER...ALTHOUGH LIGHT
PRECIPITATION CANNOT BE TOTALLY RULED OUT. FOR NOW...MAINTAINED A
DRY FORECAST.

RIDGE BUILDS ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH DRY
CONDITIONS AND WARMING TEMPERATURES. ANOTHER FRONT APPROACHES AROUND
TUESDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...RPY









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY











000
FXUS61 KRLX 201753
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
122 PM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES OVERNIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST
COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
MODELS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE
REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME MODELS DO NOT HAVE A SOLID BAND OF
PRECIPITATION WITH THIS FRONT...AND CURRENTLY TO THE WEST...THIS IS
THE CASE. THEREFORE WILL BACK OFF ON POPS SLIGHTLY SINCE THE
SITUATION IS A BIT MORE UNSURE.

MUCH COLDER AIR MOVES IN FOR TUESDAY. THIS COULD PRODUCE SOME
AFTERNOON OVERTURNING SHOWERS...ESPECIALLY IN THE NORTH.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION OVERNIGHT. SOME SHOWERS
ARE POSSIBLE ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...POSSIBLY PRODUCING
SOME BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE
FRONT...ALLOWING CEILINGS TO LOWER INTO THE MVFR RANGE FOR MANY
LOCATIONS TUESDAY MORNING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH THIS AFTERNOON. MEDIUM TONIGHT INTO
TUESDAY.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: CEILINGS ALONG AND IMMEDIATELY BEHIND THE FRONT
COULD BE BETTER THAN FORECAST. A BRIEF SHOWER COULD CAUSE MVFR
RESTRICTIONS TONIGHT.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY AFTERNOON INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT
NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/RPY
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...RPY












000
FXUS61 KRLX 201319
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
915 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING...SO WILL CANCEL
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ











000
FXUS61 KRLX 201319
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
915 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES LATE TONIGHT. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS
ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 10 AM THIS MORNING/...
TEMPERATURES ARE RISING SUBSTANTIALLY THIS MORNING...SO WILL CANCEL
THE REMAINING PORTION OF THE FROST ADVISORY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /10 AM THIS MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /13Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ












000
FXUS61 KRLX 201013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 201013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 201013
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
613 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
FREEZING FOG DEVELOPED AROUND 09Z AT EKN FOR LIFR CONDITIONS...WHILE
DENSE FOG DEVELOPED AT CRW AT 10Z. VFR CONDITIONS PREVAILED ACROSS
OTHER SITES...EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE DAY TODAY. LIFR/IFR
CONDITIONS AT EKN AND CRW WILL IMPROVE BY 13-14Z AS THE FOG LIFT
OFF.

CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TODAY AS LIGHT SHOWERS...AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT
APPROACHES FROM THE WEST.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST TODAY AND A BIT GUSTY LATER THIS
AFTERNOON. CODED GUSTY WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND
18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EDT 1HRLY       07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    M    L    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 200742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200742
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
342 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG
THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN
ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
HIGH PRESSURE EXIT EAST...LEAVING THE AREA IN A ZONAL FLOW ALOFT.
HOWEVER...AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST WITH
ITS ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT. THE FRONT WILL BRING GOOD CHANCE FOR
RAIN SHOWERS MAINLY TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY.

RADAR ECHOES WILL LIKELY BE SEEN AHEAD OF THE FRONT...BUT AT
START THE PCPN WILL NOT REACH THE GROUND AND FALL AS VIRGA DURING
THE MORNING HOURS. PCPN WILL INCREASE IN INTENSITY AS THE COLUMN
GETS SATURATED TO PRODUCE RAIN SHOWERS TODAY SPREADING FROM WEST
TO EAST...MORE NUMEROUS DURING THE EVENING HOURS.

TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE IN THE COOL SIDE THROUGH AT LEAST MID
WEEK...GENERALLY AROUND 40 OR IN THE UPPER 30S AT NIGHT...AND 60
TO THE MID 50S DURING THE AFTERNOONS. USED MET GUIDANCE WITH FEW
TWEAKS.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/...
A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE REGION ON TUESDAY AS PREVIOUSLY
ADVERTISED.  THERE IS GOOD CONSISTENCY WITH THIS FEATURE.  AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW DEVELOPS IN THE REGION OVERNIGHT TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY.
THE BIG QUESTIONS WILL BE WHERE EXACTLY DOES THIS LOW DEVELOP AND TO
WHERE IT WILL MEANDER AROUND.  AT THIS TIME WILL GO WITH THE
SCENARIO THAT IT WILL BE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA ON WEDNESDAY.
THERE IS PLENTY OF MOISTURE ON THE BACKSIDE OF THIS LOW SO WILL
LEAVE CHANCE POPS EAST AND SLIGHT CHANCE FROM THE OHIO RIVER AND
WEST.  THE 540 MB THICKNESS LINE WILL BE ACROSS THE NORTHERN
MOUNTAINS WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND EXPECT SOME LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS OR
FLURRIES ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS.  DON/T EXPECT ENOUGH TO MEASURE.  IF
THE LOW PLACEMENT CHANGES THERE COULD BE SOME SNOW ACCUMULATIONS
OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN.  EXPECT A HIGH TO DEVELOP OVER THE GREAT
LAKES ON WEDNESDAY AND THIS WILL MOVE EAST ON THURSDAY...FINALLY
DRYING THE FORECAST AREA OUT ON THURSDAY.

FOR TEMPERATURES WENT WITH A BLEND OF GUIDANCE THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 200543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REMOVED FOG ALONG THE TYGART RIVER VALLEY AS EXPECTING HEAVY
FROST...USUALLY DOMINATES AGAINST FOG FORMATION. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200543
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
143 AM EDT MON OCT 20 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
REMOVED FOG ALONG THE TYGART RIVER VALLEY AS EXPECTING HEAVY
FROST...USUALLY DOMINATES AGAINST FOG FORMATION. REST OF FORECAST
REMAINS REPRESENTATIVE.


&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE MOVES EAST OVERNIGHT. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES...ONLY HIGH
LEVEL CIRRUS UNDER CALM FLOW...AND TEMPERATURES DROPPING INTO THE
LOWER 30S...EXPECT HEAVY FROST INSTEAD OF DENSE FOG IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT. EXPECT FROST TO WIN THE BATTLE UPON
SATURATION NEAR THE SURFACE OVERNIGHT. SHALLOW DENSE FOG ALONG
LOWLANDS RIVER VALLEYS IS A POSSIBILITY BUT NOT EXPECT TO AFFECT
SITES ATTM. THEREFORE...EXPECT MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS THROUGH
MONDAY.

UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT APPROACH MONDAY FROM THE WEST.
THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS LATE MONDAY IN SEVERAL BROKEN BANDS.
VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR COVERAGE
ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NIGHT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SOUTHWEST ON MONDAY AND
BE A BIT GUSTY LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS. CODED GUSTY
WINDS UP TO 20 KNOTS AT MOST SITES AROUND 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG COULD BRIEFLY FORM AT EKN
AND PKB. THERE MAY BE BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS LATE
MONDAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    M    L    M    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN LOW STRATUS TUESDAY INTO WEDNESDAY...ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR WVZ015>020-
     027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 200230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NECC.

730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ015>020-027>032-
     035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM










000
FXUS61 KRLX 200230
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1030 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE EXITS OVERNIGHT. A COLD FRONT CROSSES EARLY
TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN ON FRIDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
1030 PM UPDATE...
NO CHANGES NECC.

730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR WVZ015>020-027>032-
     035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/TRM/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM









000
FXUS61 KRLX 192350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 192350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 192350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM







000
FXUS61 KRLX 192350
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
750 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/...
730 PM UPDATE...
ADDED FROST TO THE FCST IN THE ADVISORY AREA AND FOG FOR THE DEEPER
VALLEYS OVERNIGHT GIVEN THE RAIN LAST NT.  INCREASED DEW POINTS
SOMEWHAT THIS EVENING GIVEN CURRENT TRENDS AND GUIDANCE.  LOW
TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD.  HAVE CHANCE POPS EARLIER MON WITH INITIAL
HEIGHT FALLS OUT AHEAD OF APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL S/W TROUGH...AND
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE.

PREV DISCN...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE RIGHT OVER THE AREA TO START THE PERIOD...MOVES AWAY
TO THE E OVERNIGHT.  THIS WILL ALLOW DENSE FOG TO FORM IN DEEPER
EASTERN VALLEYS OVERNIGHT...HAVE EKN VLIFR 06-13Z.  THERE IS LESS
CERTAINTY FOR BRIEF IFR FOG AT PKB 08-10Z.  THERE MAY BE FOG ALONG
THE ELK RIVER BUT IT PROBABLY WILL NOT MAKE IT OVER THE PLATEAU AT
CRW.

AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH AND SFC COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH OVERNIGHT AND
MON.  LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE IN ADVANCE OF THE SFC FRONT
WILL LEAD TO PATCHY MVFR STRATOCU LATE OVERNIGHT INTO MON MORNING.
OTHERWISE THERE IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR SHOWERS MON IN SEVERAL BROKEN
BANDS.  VSBY RESTRICTIONS ARE NOT CODED DUE TO THE LACK OF RADAR
COVERAGE ANTICIPATED...BUT BRIEF MVFR VSBY CAN OCCUR.

AFTER A CALM NT...SFC FLOW WILL BECOME SW ON MON AND BE A BIT GUSTY
LATE MORNING INTO MON AFTERNOON.  LIGHT W TO NW FLOW ALOFT WILL
BECOME LIGHT W TO SW OVERNIGHT...AND THEN LIGHT TO MODERATE SW ON
MON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR MIST / IFR FOG MAY NOT FORM AT PKB.  DENSE
FOG AT EKN MAY NOT BE AS PERSISTENT AS FCST 06-13Z.  THERE MAY BE
BRIEF MVFR VSBY RESTRICTIONS IN SHOWERS MON...AND MORE MVFR CIGS
THAN FCST MON...MAINLY IN THE MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            MON 10/20/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z TUESDAY...
IFR IN STRATUS TUE INTO WED...ESPECIALLY AT NT.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS/TRM
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...TRM








000
FXUS61 KRLX 191825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISSIPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS














000
FXUS61 KRLX 191825
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
217 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELSEWHERE. USED CONSENSUS GUID
THROUGHOUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
MAIN SYNOPTIC FEATURES FOR THE SHORT TERM WILL BE COLD FRONT PASSING
MONDAY NIGHT AS A SURFACE LOW DROPS THROUGH THE EASTERN GREAT LAKES
TOWARDS DELMARVA THEN OUT TO SEA. FOLLOWING THE COLD FRONT...A
CLOSED UPPER LOW DROPS OUT OF CANADA INTO THE MID ATLANTIC. HAVE
LIKELY POPS CROSSING NORTHERN CWA INTO THE MOUNTAINS MONDAY NIGHT.
THEN BEGIN INCREASING POPS ACROSS THE NORTH AND EAST AGAIN LATER
TUESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM NEARS. HAVE A GRADUALLY DECREASING
POP TREND TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS THE UPPER LEVEL LOW
SLOWLY DRIFTS EASTWARD PULLING BETTER MOISTURE WITH IT. NOT AS MUCH
OF A COLD PUNCH BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH 850MB TEMPS LOOKING TO
BARELY DROP BELOW 0C THROUGH THE PERIOD...SO PRECIP SHOULD BE ALL
RAIN.

USED A CONSENSUS BLEND...LEANING TOWARD THE ECMWF FOR TEMPERATURES.
NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES RESULTED...DID END UP A TOUCH COOLER ON
WEDNESDAY.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
GENERALLY LOOKING AT DRY AND QUIET WX IN THE EXTENDED. AREA LOOKS TO
REMAIN UNDER NW FLOW ALOFT...ON BACK SIDE OF MEAN TROF. ANY
DISTURBANCES TRAVERSING THRU THE TROF LOOK TO REMAIN WELL N OF THE
AREA. ALL IN ALL...A NICE AND MAINLY SUNNY SEASONAL EXTENDED PERIOD.
EXPECT GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING AT NIGHT WHICH MAY RESULT IN SOME
FROST COME THURSDAY MORNING. SHOULD SEE MORE OF A RIDGE VALLEY TEMP
SPLIT AT NIGHT BY THIS WEEKEND AMID SOME WAA JUST OFF THE SURFACE.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISSIPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS













000
FXUS61 KRLX 191813
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINTUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELESWHERE. USED CONCENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISAPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROCHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS









000
FXUS61 KRLX 191813
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
213 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL TONIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE CWA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT. WITH SKIES CLEARING AND WINDS DYING DOWN TONIGHT...THERE
IS A GOOD CHANCE FOR RADIATIONAL COOLING. THIS SHOULD DROP TEMPS
DOWN INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND
CENTRAL LOWLANDS OF WV. AREAS OF FROST ARE EXPECTED TO FORM AND
WILL CONTINTUE THE FROST ADVISORY FOR THAT AREA. SOME HIGH THIN
CIRRUS IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN AND THIS WILL LIMIT THE RADIATIONAL
COOLING ELSEWHERE.

HIGH CLOUDS WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY TOMORROW OUT AHEAD OF THE
NEXT SYSTEM TO MOVE INTO THE REGION. THERE MAY BE ENOUGH MOISTURE
TO PRODUCE CHC POPS ACROSS WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA BY LATE
AFTERNOON AND SLGT CHC POPS ELESWHERE. USED CONCENSUS GUID THROUGHOUT.



&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISAPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROCHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/MZ/30
NEAR TERM...JS
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...JS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISAPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROCHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JS










000
FXUS61 KRLX 191732
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
132 PM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN. CU STARTING TO DISAPATE. VFR CIGS AND
CLEARING SKIES WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON.
CLEAR SKIES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT TO CALM WINDS.

CLOUDS INCREASE FROM THE WEST DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY WITH THE
NEXT SYSTEM APPROCHING.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EDT 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JS









000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE CU FORMATION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRING AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST AS WELL BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY
14Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JS/ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 191437
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1037 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPDATE DISCUSSION...PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING WILL
CONTINUE TO INCREASE CU FORMATION OVER THE AREA THIS MORNING AND
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON BEFORE DRING AND HIGH PRESSURE TAKES HOLD
LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING. UPSLOPE CLOUDS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS WILL PERSIST AS WELL BEFORE CLEARING BY LATE AFTERNOON
AND EARLY THIS EVENING. WINDS DIE DOWN AFTER SUNSET.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY
14Z. EXPECT CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW
WILL BECOME MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.
EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01
EDT 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/JS/ARJ
NEAR TERM...JS/ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...JS/ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 190957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 14Z. EXPECT
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 10/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 14Z. EXPECT
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 10/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ










000
FXUS61 KRLX 190957
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
557 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR/IFR CEILINGS WILL IMPROVE TO WIDESPREAD VFR BY 14Z. EXPECT
CLEARING TO TAKE PLACE BY MID MORNING. NORTHWEST FLOW WILL BECOME
MORE WESTERLY AND LIGHTER BY 21Z TODAY.

MODELS INDICATE A LARGE HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAIN AND MOVE EAST INTO THE OH VALLEY AND WV THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS WILL RELAX THE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND
WEAKEN THE FLOW TO LIGHT OR CALM AT NIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 10/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 12Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ









000
FXUS61 KRLX 190809
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
409 AM EDT SUN OCT 19 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE IN TODAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT CROSSES
EARLY TUESDAY. LOW PRESSURE MEANDERS ALONG THE EAST COAST WEDNESDAY
THROUGH THURSDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE CENTRAL PLAINS...EAST INTO
THE OH VALLEY AND WV TODAY. CONSEQUENTLY...SKIES WILL GRADUALLY
CLEAR BY THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT
WILL KEEP COLD AIR ADVECTION GOING THROUGH AT LEAST TONIGHT.

NEAR CALM WINDS AT NIGHT...CLEAR SKIES AND A COLD AIR MASS IN
PLACE WILL ALLOW TEMPERATURES TO DROP INTO THE LOW TO MID 30S
ACROSS THE MOUNTAINS AND PORTIONS OF THE LOWLANDS CENTRAL WV.
THEREFORE...ISSUED A FROST ADVISORY FROM KANAWHA COUNTY NORTH TO
RITCHIE AND DODDRIDGE AND SOUTH TO RALEIGH COUNTY UNTIL 10 AM.

PREVIOUS TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD. NO CHANGES NECESSARY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
CURRENT FORECAST LOOKS VERY REASONABLE. SHORT TERM MODELS ARE IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND ONLY MADE A FEW TWEAKS TO TIMING FOR THE NEXT
STORM SYSTEM. WEAK ZONAL FLOW STARTS OUT THE FORECAST PERIOD AS
THE NEXT COLD FRONT APPROACHES MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. KEPT
THE CURRENT THINKING OF BEST POPS ALONG THE COLD FRONT ON TUESDAY.
A PIECE OF THE UPPER LEVEL ENERGY BREAKS OFF AFTER THE COLD FRONT
PASSAGE LEAVING AN UPPER LEVEL LOW SPINNING ACROSS THE NORTHEAST
ON WEDNESDAY. THIS WILL LEAVE CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA. AT THIS TIME HAVE LEFT EVERYTHING AS
SHOWERS OF RAIN...BUT TEMPERATURES ARE CLOSE TO POSSIBLE HAVING
SOME FROZEN FLAKES MIXED IN ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN.

USED A MIXTURE OF GUIDANCE VALUES FOR TEMPERATURES AS NUMBERS
LOOKED REASONABLE AND CLOSE.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
WPC AND MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD AGREEMENT THIS PERIOD ON AN UPPER
LEVEL LOW THAT CLOSES OFF NEAR THE JERSEY SHORE TUE NT AND WED
BEFORE MEANDERING ABOUT JUST OFFSHORE WED NT AND THU...AND THEN
FINALLY DRIFTING NEWD OFF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST THROUGH THE BALANCE
OF THE PERIOD.

UPSLOPE PRECIPITATION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SYSTEM TUE EVENING
GRADUALLY DIMINISHES TUE NT AND WED...BUT A FEW SHOWERS COULD LINGER
IN THE MOUNTAINS WED NT THROUGH THU NT...AS THE UPPER LOW
MEANDERS...BEFORE ENDING ALTOGETHER ON FRI.

HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR A DRY CLOSE TO THE PERIOD.  THE GFS HAD
HAD A SMALL AND THEREFORE NOT VERY TRUSTWORTHY FEATURE ROLLING IN
LATE SAT AND SAT NT WHICH DOES NOT SHOW UP ON THE 12Z RUN.  THE
ECMWF HAD A STRONGER AND MORE BELIEVABLE S/W TROUGH BUT IT TOO DID
NOT SURVIVE THE 12Z RUN.

BLENDED IN SOME CONSENSUS MOS FOR HIGHS EARLY ON AND WPC DAY 5 FOR
LITTLE CHANGE THROUGHOUT.  BLENDED IN BIAS CORRECTED MOS FOR
SLIGHTLY HIGHER LOWS OR IN SOME CASES JUST A LITTLE REDISTRIBUTION
EARLY ON.  BLENDED IN WPC AND MOS ON LOWS LATER PERIODS.  HIGHS A
BIT BELOW NORMAL CLIMBING TO NORMAL WITH LOWS NEAR NORMAL OVERALL.
COLDEST MORNING AND BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE HIGHEST
TERRAIN STILL LOOKS TO BE EARLY THU MORNING WITH H85 TEMPERATURES
JUST ABOUT DOWN TO 0 C.

&&

.AVIATION /08Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVERNIGHT AT MOST SITES WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF IFR AT BKW WITH CEILINGS AROUND 600 FEET. SPRINKLES
OR LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS WILL EXIT EAST OF THE MOUNTAINS OVERNIGHT.

GUIDANCE SHOWS ANY MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BY 13-14Z
INTO WIDESPREAD VFR.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z MONDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR CIGS COULD SPREAD TO OTHER AREAS AND
SITES.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                    SUN 10/19/14
UTC 1HRLY       08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19
EDT 1HRLY       04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    M    M    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    L    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M

AFTER 06Z MONDAY...
NO IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FROST ADVISORY FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 10 AM EDT MONDAY FOR
     WVZ015>020-027>032-035>040.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...FB/ARJ
NEAR TERM...ARJ
SHORT TERM...FB
LONG TERM...TRM
AVIATION...ARJ










    US Dept of Commerce
    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration
    National Weather Service
    1325 East West Highway
    Silver Spring, MD 20910
    Page Author: NWS Internet Services Team
Disclaimer
Information Quality
Credits
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities